Sunday, January 24, 2021

WEEKEND WRAP: Biden Takes Oath; Stocks Pause, Bonds Flat; Earnings Season in Full Swing

On Wednesday, Joe Biden took the presidential oath of office, making him the 46th president of the United States. The inauguration went off without a hitch, which was to be expected, considering there were more than 25,000 National Guards on duty across the District of Columbia, protecting the president and assembled dignitaries from some supposed threat, which, since the whole narrative was complete fiction, never materialized.

Neither white supremacists, ANTIFA or BLM radicals or even Daughters of the Republic showed up for the event, which more resembled a bad "made for TV movie" than the usual pomp and circumstance associated with the peaceful transition of power. It was so bad, there were more people awaiting President Trump's arrival in Florida than there were at Joe Biden's inauguration.

Trump didn't attend the inauguration. He left hours beforehand, aboard Air Force One. According to verifiable sources, he took the nuclear codes with him. Biden doesn't have the nuclear codes, probably never will, and his members of his administration are barred from the Pentagon, also verified.

There are still, at this writing, some 7,000 National Guardsmen on duty in the nation's capitol, which is quizzical, since there was no threat of violence at the big event, and no intelligence to expect any. The fences encompassing the National Mall, White House, Capitol, and Supreme Court are still up. The desolate city looks more like a third world prison camp than the seat of national power.

What the new president did right away was sign away some executive orders, mostly designed to reverse EOs issued by President Trump. EOs don't carry the weight of law. Biden's signings are designed to set the country back four years, and, despite what he says about uniting the country, don't exactly exude that Kumbaya feeling.

In response, stocks, in the first two full trading days since the inauguration, took a left turn. See closing prices below:

Index: 1/20/2021 / 1/22/2021
Dow: 31,188.38 / 30,996.98
NASDAQ: 13,457.25 / 13,543.06
S&P 500: 3,851.85 / 3,841.47
NYSE: 15,097.28 / 14,951.84

Just guessing, but, other than the NASDAQ (which always goes up because of the Tech monopoly giants (the AMFAG stocks: AAPL, MSFT, FB, AMZN, GOOG), traders seem to be less than enthralled with the direction taken by the new administration. While presidents aren't usually responsible for Wall Street antics, there is something of a correlation between policy and prices. The Biden administration is off to a rocky start.

While change has come to the federal government, some things are out of their reach, and unlikely to change. Treasuries were flat, with the 10-year yielding 1.10%, just a single basis point below the close of the prior week. The 30-year ended the week unchanged, at 1.85%.

Likewise, the surpression of precious metal prices continued, though at a somewhat subdued pace. Gold gained, from $1,829.80 to $1,855.50 (+$25.70), though it was down slightly the two days following Biden's inauguration. Silver rose from $24.87 to $25.57, a gain of 70 cents per ounce.

Oil, which hit a nine-month high of $53.57 per barrel on January 14, closed out at $51.98 on Friday, the 22nd. Could relief at the pump be at hand? Unlikely. Democrat governors, from New York's Andrew Cuomo, to Illinois' J.B. Pritzker, are reopening their economies and weather will begin to warm in another month or so, though heating costs have been mild this winter. Oil's price could moderate for a time, but by summer, it's almost certain to be above current levels.

In the crypto space, Bitcoin continues to vacillate at a level about 20% below its recent high above $42,000. Bitcoin's price fell as low as $28,732 and is holding around $32,000 currently. Etherium, the second largest coin by market cap, dipped as low as $1,039.62, but has recovered above $1,300.

Below is the Money Daily exclusive weekly survey of commonly-sold items on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):

Itam: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 35.00 / 50.50 / 42.17 / 42.47
1 oz silver bar: 32.25 / 47.15 / 38.57 / 38.48
1 oz gold coin: 1,952.00 / 2,046.24 / 1,999.27 / 2,007.80
1 oz gold bar: 1,950.00 / 1,986.49 / 1,966.96 / 1,965.94

For historical price data go HERE.

Of interest looking ahead, the coming week is the heart of earnings season, as companies release 4th quarter 2020 and full year results. Among the companies reporting this week are some heavyweights, as shown below.

Monday: (before open) Kimberly-Clark (KMB); (after close) Xilinx (XLNX), Yamana Gold (AUY)

Tuesday: (before open) UBS AG (UBS), 3M (MMM), D.R. Horton (DHI), General Electric (GE), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), American Express (AXP), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Verizon (VZ); (after close) Texas Instruments (TXN), Capital One (COF), Starbucks (SBUX), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Microsoft (MSFT)

Wednesday: (before open) Blackstone (BX), AT&T (T), Teledyne (TDY), General Dynamics (GD), Boeing (BA); (after close) Facebook (FB), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), Teradyne (TER), Raymond James (RJF)

Thursday: (before open) Dow Chemical (DOW), Stanley Black & Decker (SWK), Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), PulteGroup (PHM), Southwest Airlines (LUV), McDonald's (MCD), Altria (MO), American Airlines (AAL), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Alliance Data Systems (ADS), Nucor (NUE), Mastercard (MA); (after close) Celanese (CE), Visa (V), Beazer Homes (BZH), US Steel (X)

Friday: (before open) Weyerhaeuser (WY), Caterpillar (CAT), Eli Lilly (ELI), Honeywell (HON), Synchrony Financial (SYF), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL)

At the Close, Friday, January 22, 2021:
Dow: 30,996.98, -179.03 (-0.57%)
NASDAQ: 13,543.06, +12.15 (+0.09%)
S&P 500: 3,841.47, -11.60 (-0.30%)
NYSE: 14,951.84, -67.21 (-0.45%)

For the Week:
Dow: +182.72 (+0.59%)
NASDAQ: +544.56 (+4.19%)
S&P 500: +73.22 (+1.94%)
NYSE: +57.68 (+0.39%)

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