Stocks Suffer Worst Session Since Pandemic Losses of 2020; China Slaps 34% Tariffs on U.S. Imports; March Jobs +228,000

Thursday was the ultimate risk-off day in the wake of US President Trump's Liberation Day, announcing more aggressive tariffs than most of the dull-headed, so-called "sharpies" on Wall Street supposedly anticipated.

Stocks tumbled (SPX -4.8%, NDX -5.4%, DJI -4%, RUT -6.6%) while the vast majority of sectors saw losses, with Energy, Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Industrials seeing losses greater than 5% on the day.

The only sector to close green was Consumer Staples. Read that again as "buy grocers" and "buy agriculture."

How bad was it? April 3, 2025 was the largest one-day point loss on the NASDAQ, -1,050.44 points, worse than the previous record-holder, March 16, 2020, at ?970.28. That session, at the beginning of the COVID crisis, retains the recod for largest percentage loss of ?12.32%. Thursday's 5.97% loss on the NASDAQ was substantial, though it didn't even make it to the top 20 largest percentage losses.

On the Dow, the loss of 1,679.39 points was the fifth-worse ever, though the percentage loss of -3.98% doesn't even reach the 50 worst individual sessions. The all-time record for point loss was that infamous March 16, 2020 session, in which the Dow declined a massive 2,997.10 points.

The S&P 500 suffered its second-worst point loss ever, ?274.45, again, trailing the March 16, 2020 loss of 324.89 points and ?11.98%, which ranks third in percentage terms, behind October 18, 1987's -20.47 and October 10, 1929's ?12.34% > The ?4.84% posted by the S&P on Thursday was possibly near the bottom of the 100 worst sessions in S&P 500 history.

Incidentally, the Dow Jones Transportation Average was absolutely slaughtered, losing 1,371.64 points and -9.15%, to close at 13,621.34, its lowest level since October, 2023

In weekly terms, it's not quite as grim, though the cumulative effect of the past six weeks is hitting investors where it hurts. Through Thursday's close, thanks to gains Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, the Dow is down 1037.97 points (2.50%). The NASDAQ has shed 772.38, or 4.48%, and the S&P is down 184.42 (3.30%).

Those figures are likely to become even worse with Friday's trading ahead, as China announced retaliatory tariffs to begin April 10 on all U.S. imports of 34 percent overnight. That's pushed stock futures to levels rivaling Thursday's, with Dow futures off more than 1,000 points, the NASDAQ down more than 500, and the S&P losing about 140 points a half hour prior to the opening bell.

Friday morning's Non-farm payroll reports from the BLS showed 228,000 jobs created in March with the unemployment rate holding steady, at 4.2%. The numbers were largely in line with expectations and pale before the importance of the widening tariff trauma.

Let's play a little inside baseball, as it is that season. There wasn't a soul in lower Manhattan that didn't see this coming a mile away, maybe three or thirty miles away. At least the "best and brightest" should have. The chart patterns of the first three days of this week reveals the Wall Street mango without any skin. Banks and their brokerages bought stocks with client money Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and panic sold those very shares on Thursday. Rest assured, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, and various other major players didn't lose a dime today. Their clients, did, but, so what? Things happen.

There's also a preponderance of political overtones to Thursday's whap. Europe hates Trump. CNN hates Trump. Lots of Hollywood big-money actors hate Trump. Democrats, overwhelmingly hate Trump.

Why not give the guy a shot? He's not only one of the most successful entrepreneurs of his generation, he's won the presidency of the United States of America three times!

Perhaps he has more than a little understanding of what he's doing in terms of international trade, commerce, government, taxes, wealth, freedom, and prosperity.

Keep eyes and ears tuned into the mainstream media, AKA, the narrative. Be forewarned, however, excessive viewing of financial news networks can result in loss of focus on your personal wealth and prosperity, which, bottom line, is what really matters and why we're here. Inability, for whatever reason, to manage your own money results in days like Thursday, as nest-eggs were diminished in custodial accounts. The days of passive investing, holding your money at a brokerage over which you have no control, are over. Events of the past 20 or more years should offer enough evidence of the rigged monetary system controlling the United States and much of the rest of the world.

It's like being the head waiter at a house of pleasure. It's a great gig, but you know it's not going to last.

If you want to retire with some dough put away, you should be picking your own investments, allocating your capital yourself. People do it because it's convenient and it works. Without a doubt, returns on equities, globally, have been agreeable if not outstanding since the GFC in '08 and the bottom in '09. Until Thursday.

We're still in the early stages of what is undeniably a bear market. Readers of Money Daily have been well-informed of the recent change in the primary trend and should not have been surprised at the depth of Thursday’s selloff. There's further to go, looking ahead to the first estimate of 1Q 2025 GDP on the last Thursday of April (24th) as the next watershed event. The next three weeks are likely to be quite volatile, with days of gains and losses, but pressure to the downside is likely to dominate consensus thinking.

Markets abhor uncertainty and Trump's tariffs have captured the market. The plan President Trump outlined in the Rose Garden Wednesday afternoon puts a premium on uncertainty, inducing mal-investment and speculation on an even grander scale as through the super-bubble of the last 15 years, give or take.

Trump's tariffs have put everyone on notice: compete or die. The larger objective is to eliminate the wholly unconstitutional personal income tax. There's a reason the current administration went after the IRS with a vengeance early on. They seek to eliminate it. Trump has said so himself on more than a few occasions. In the mind of a businessman, revenue should always exceed expenditures. It's the nature of profitability. Running the government on tariff revenue and eliminating the payroll tax (a holdover from world War II), reduces the burden on the citizenry while putting extra cash in their hands, overall, a win-win for the American middle class.

All that said, markets are set to open on a fearful Friday with everything from gold and silver to stock futures to WTI crude oil, which is trading below $62 per barrel.

At the Close, Thursday, April 3, 2025:
Dow: 40,545.93, -1,679.39 (-3.98%)
NASDAQ: 16,550.61, -1,050.44 (-5.97%)
S&P 500: 5,396.52, -274.45 (-4.84%)
NYSE Composite: 18,767.19, -765.56 (-3.92%)
Dow Transports: 13,621.34, -1,371.64 (-9.15%)

Trump's Tariffs Rattle Markets Globally; Europe Hard Hit; U.S. Stock Futures at Extreme Lows

For the last three sessions, the major indices have followed a nearly identical pattern, beginning with futures down, opening in the red, only to gain throughout the day and finish positive.

Making it four straight is going to take some doing after President Trump sent markets into a tailspin, announcing his worldwide tariffs Wednesday afternoon at a White House Rose Garden ceremony.

Essentially, Trump's tariffs - which became effective at midnight Wednesday - break down thusly:

• Baseline 10% tariff on all imports
• 25% tariffs on all auto imports
• Reciprocal tariffs amounting to 1/2 of the tariffs the target nation imposes on U.S. imports.

Notable among trading partners hit with high tariffs are some of the largest. China: 34%; Taiwan: 32%; India: 26%; Japan: 24%; European Union: 20%.

Goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the USMCA trade agreement between the three countries will largely remain exempt from tariffs, except for auto exports and steel and aluminum which fall under separate tariff policies.

Trump's bold agenda stunned markets worldwide, sending U.S. stock futures tumbling to extremes. Japan's NIKKEI fell 2.77% in Thursday trading. Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 1.52%. Markets in China and India were much less affected, finishing the day with marginal losses.

European stocks are having trouble digesting the new trading paradigm.

England's FTSE 100 is down 123.24 points (-1.43%).

Germany's DAX is losing 444.98 points (-1.99%).

France's CAC 40 is down 214.56 (-2.73%).

EURO STOXX 50 has shed 141.99 points (-2.68%).

Euronext 100 Index is down 40.32 (-2.58%).

With less than an hour before the opening bell, the day is shaping up as a painful one all around.

WTI crude oil was hammered overnight and into the morning, down 6.64% at $66.95 per barrel. Gold is well off its recent highs, down $67 at $3,098.50 (-2.15%). Silver has lost more than 7% and is still dropping, around $32.15 per ounce.

While traders may have thought themselves devilishly smart by gaming stocks the first three days of the week, this looks like a condition of "buy the rumor, sell the news" writ large.

Stock futures are ugly: Dow: -1,204 (-2.83%), NASDAQ: -790 (4.00%); S&P 500: -196 (-3.44%).

It will be interesting and instructive to see if the futures result in sustained losses throughout the session or traders opt for bottom fishing at this watershed moment. With tariff trauma the order of the day, Friday's March Non-farm payrolls report from the BLS is looking to be somewhat inconsequential.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 2, 2025:
Dow: 42,225.32, +235.36 (+0.56%)
NASDAQ: 17,601.05, +151.16 (+0.87%)
S&P 500: 5,670.97, +37.90 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 19,532.74, +134.46 (+0.69%)

Gaming the System with Trump Tariffs Today; Best and Worst-Performing Assets of 1Q 2025

For the second straight day, speculators have played chicken with the market, sending stocks on the major indices from morning losses to afternoon gains in what looks to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario centered upon President Trump's release of his promised tariffs sceduled for 3:00 pm ET Wednesday (today).

Thus far, the zero-day options traders and long-positioned investors have had their way with markets. In consideration of the timing of the tariff announcement, bing late in the trading session, there's a good possibility that trading will follow the same "dare, double dare, triple dare" path right up until the decisive moment, much in the way traders play FOMC policy statements.

On the other hand, the gaming and teasing is likely to have set up shorts with a golden opportunity, able to play put options or outright shorting of stocks and indices from a higher level than anticipated. It's a safe bet that the people sending stocks higher are one and the same that will be shorting Wednesday afternoon. It's just business, how the game is played in the Wall Street casino.

Trump is likely to announce tariffs of up to 20% on trading partners across the global spectrum, with special attention to the usual suspects, China, Japan, and the EU trade bloc, the wild card being the actual date of impostion of said tariffs. While the market anticipates the tariffs to be on the extreme end, there almost certainly will be a lag between today's announcement and the actual levying of tariffs, allowing the administration time for negotiation and new agreements and understandings with various trade partners.

There's also a great potential for retaliatory or "in kind" tariffs levied on U.S. exports into foreign markets. Some countries may consider playing "hard ball" with Trump, suffer the consequences and move ahead with their own priorities.

Bottom line, while April 2nd may indeed be Trump's "Liberation Day," the actual levying and impact may be weeks or months ahead. In that scenario, expect the longs to be on the right side of the trade, sending stocks higher as shorts scramble to cover their - for now - bad bets, leaving global markets on a razor's edge.

Elsewhere, gold and silver continue to reach higher. Early on Wednesday morning, gold futures traded as high as $3,167, silver up to $34.81. Spot markets marked up gold at $3,134 and silver at $34.05.

WTI crude continued to catch the eye, trading as high as $71.93, reflecting the belief that oil will be affected by the coming tariffs. That may be wishful thinking on the part of oil barons. If the tariffs are levied and long-lasting, slowing trade is a real possibility, which would send oil prices lower based on declining demand.

On the labor front, Tuesday's JOLTS report was inconsequential. This morning, ADP reported private employers added 155,000 jobs in March, better than expected, but, with little effect on stock futures, which are tanking. Dow futures: -323; NASDAQ futures: -232; S&P futures: -55.

With Wednesday's game plan in hand, the following - published this morning in the April issue of idleguy.com - takes a look back at 1st quarter winners and losers. (Note: will be updated, reposted as time allows)

To say that the first quarter of 2025 has been turbulent would be understating the obvious. It's been testing, nerve-wracking, and filled with uncertainty.

Of utmost interest at this juncture is trying to understand or game out what comes next and maybe it's worth looking at what has and hasn't worked so far to get some ideas going forward.

Starting with everybody’s favorite (because it’s been so easy), stocks did not perform well at all. The major indices nosedived through the quarter, though the path down wasn’t by any means a straightforward one, as it usually isn’t.

Financial news outlets have been blaring about how the first quarter was the worst since 2022. Boo-hoo! Outside of the quick and ultimately painless COVID collapse of 2020, stocks have been on a straight line to Olympus since the GFC of 2008-09.

Buy and hold investors had such an easy time of it, any little disruption in the force that is Wall Street is seen as some kid of rude, unwarranted intrusion into their almost-perfect existence, where unicorns romp about on the lawns and returns from stock market investments provide for all the luxuries life can afford. Such is the attitude of the horde that has never experienced financial pain and suffering, the kind of dispirited detachment that has preceded almost every other major market correction or crash.

At the same time, those insufferable goldbugs have been making out like masked bandits at a train heist. Whether they’re right or wrong about “honest money”, de-dollarization, or the evils of fractional reserve banking, for the past three months - and for pretty much the past year, two years, and 5 years - they won. They beat the stock market. Get over it.

Rather than debating the finer points of Keynesian or Austrian economics, let’s let the numbers do the talking with the biggest winners and losers of the first quarter of 2025.

Winners	1Q % Gain	Losers	1Q % Loss
Gold	+19.28%	NASDAQ	-10.42%
Silver	+18.37%	S&P 500	-4.59%
S&P 3X Short EFT (SDS)	+9.10%	Dow 30	-1.28%
S&P Bear 3X EFT (SPXS)	+13.38	Tesla (TSLA)	-35.83%
CVS Health (CVS)	+52.79	Nvidia (NVDA)	-19.29%
Okta (OKTA)	+33.53%	Apple (AAPL)	-11.30%
Germany (DAX)	+11.32%	Microsoft (MSFT)	-10.94%
Philip Morris (PM)	+33.06%	Amazon (AMZN)	-13.36%
France (CAC)	+6.52%	Astera Labs (ALAB)	-54.95%
England (FTSE)	+5.01%	Trade Desk (TTD)	-53.44%
Newmont (NEM)	+30.48%	Alphabet (GOOG)	-17.96%
SuperMicro (SMCI)	+12.14%	Teradyne (TER)	-34.40%
AT&T (T)	+25.79%	On Semi (ON)	-35.46%
Hong Kong (HSI)	+15.25%	United Airlines (UAL)	-28.89%
Kroger (KR)	+10.70%	Delta Airlines (DAL)	-27.93%
Copper	+24.81%	Deckers (DECK)	-44.95%
Spain (IBEX)	+13.29%	Lululemon (LULU)	-25.98%
Harmony Gold (HMY)	+79.90	Best Buy (BBY)	-14.21%
Agilon Health (AGL)	+227.89	Williams Sonoma (WSM)	-14.62%
ExxonMobil (XOM)	+10.56%	Nike (NKE)	-16.11%
Visa (V)	+10.89%	Carnival (CCL)	-21.63%
Verizon (VZ)	+13.43%	Bitcoin (BTC)	-10.63%
Deere & Co. (DE)	+10.78%	Etherium (ETH)	-45.26%
Coca-Cola (KO)	+15.03%	Cardano (ADA)	-21.42%
Yum! Brands (YUM)	+17.29%	XRP (XRP)	-32.05%
Chevron (CVX)	+15.50%	Dogecoin (DOGE)	-46.18%

The figures presented here represent gains or loss from December 31, 2024 through March 31, 2025. As such, some may be a little distorted or skewed due to the timing of the readings. In the case of the major indices, for instance, the end of December was near a low off late November - early December highs. Additionally, stocks rallied strongly in January before leveling off in February and falling in March.

Admittedly, it was a lot easier to find losers than winners. When almost everything is moving in the same direction, it’s tough to find those who are swimming upstream, against the general flow.

Now, there you have it. Do you now sell the winners and buy the losers? Or vice versa, doubling down on success and/or failure. While catching falling knives is usually left to circus performers, it’s equally dangerous to believe that some kind of bottom has been put in place and those stocks or assets that crashed and burned for the past three months are going to suddenly reverse course and rise majestically like the sun over Mount Fiji.

That kind of thing only happens in movies, and usually in bad ones.

A bit of nibbling might satisfy the animal spirits, but most professionals are urging a more cautious and patient approach. It would be prudent to keep an eye out for complete capitulation before attempting to go “all in.” It’s times like these that one needs to appreciate the difference between return on capital and return of capital.

One asset that managed to hold itself together pretty well was cash. Those good old crinkly Federal Reserve Notes didn’t lose as much as a percent or two, and, depending on what you were buying with it, might even had a slight uptick in value.

One thing that wasn’t useful to spend cash on was gasoline. Even though fuel is down from a year ago (thank God!) prices at the pump actually increased during the first three months of 2025, compared with November and December of 2024. Regional differences and urban/rural differentials vary, but overall, gas prices that seemed to be going down are actually going back up.

One might have been able to procure some savings at the supermarket, depending on whether or not you enjoy eggs for breakfast every morning. Prices have been sliding in most locales the past few months. Nothing great, but big chains like Krogers, Publix, Wegman’s and others have been experiencing some oversupply in certain categories and have been marking down, often substantially. One thing Americans don’t have to worry about is starvation. We have plenty of food, the trick being able to afford to buy it.

Cars, both used and new, have come down to more reasonable levels. How much of the reasonableness occurred in the first quarter is probably more a matter of how well your local dealer is doing and your skills of negotiation. America also has no shortage of cars, trucks, SUVs, motorcycles, RVs, and ATVs.

Looking both backwards and forwards, stock charts of the major averages from the first quarter appear eerily similar to those of the first quarter of 2022. That 2022 downturn didn’t end until November. If stocks are headed on a similar trajectory, there are further declines ahead. If not, well, there are going to be a lot of speculators walking funny for being wrong-footed at the most opportune time. It’s a tough call, but the bears seem to be having their way of late. There may be a bit of turbulence before Elon Musk’s rocket reaches maximum thrust, headed for Trump’s “golden age.”

The choice is yours as to which ways your financial well-being should proceed. Choose wisely. Or, like most people with passive investment accounts, let a “professional” choose for you. After all, they know best, don’t they? At the Close, Tuesday, April 1, 2025: Dow: 41,989.96, -11.80 (-0.03%) NASDAQ: 17,449.89, +150.60 (+0.87%) S&P 500: 5,633.07, +21.22 (+0.38%) NYSE Composite: 19,398.28, +2.42 (+0.01%)

Trump Tariff Trauma Being Played to the Hilt by Wall Street Sharps; Gold Continues Record-Breaking Streak; JOLTS Due 10 AM

Monday's day-long buying spree - after futures sent the majors to lows of the day just after the open - was largely the result of momentum traders playing 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options and dumb money piling in to pump the market in what can only be considered a prototypical bear market rally.

The Dow round-tripped to the tune of 900 points from the morning lows into the goosed-up close for a neat one percent gain. The S&P and NYSE Composite followed the same pattern, while the NASDAQ, which was down nearly 470 points before 10:00 am ET, didn't quite make it to positive ground, but it wasn't for lack of effort, closing down a mere 23 points.

Call Monday's trading the pump part of the pump-and-dump, because Tuesday (and probably Wednesday) is going to start off pretty darn ugly. Sooner or later - with Trump's tariffs set to launch on Wednesday, the markets are likely to resume their downward trajectory. Today could be a capitulation-like event, as there aren't many traders keen on holding overnight into Wednesday's tariff reveal, especially after the Washington Post ran a story Tuesday morning citing Trump officials saying that 20% across-the-board tariffs could be unleashed April 2nd.

Trump, admittedly a "superstitious guy", didn't want to start off his tariff tsunami on April Fool's Day, purposely pushing back the timing to April 2nd. That seems to have been right up Wall Street's alley, giving the sharpies an additional day of game-playing with people's retirement and speculation accounts.

With the opening bell due to ring within minutes, stock futures are bouncing off the morning lows. Dow futures: -158; NASDAQ futures: -51; S&P futures: -14.

Meanwhile, gold continues to ramp higher, hitting another in a series of all-time highs overnight into the U.S. AM, hitting a high of $3,176 on the COMEX. Silver is still struggling with $35 on the COMEX, with spot prices hanging in the high $33 range.

The March JOLTS survey is due out at 10:00 am ET.

Let's get ready to rumble, fools!

At the Close, Monday, March 31, 2025:
Dow: 42,001.76, +417.86 (+1.00%)
NASDAQ: 17,299.29, -23.70 (-0.14%)
S&P 500: 5,611.85, +30.91 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 19,395.86, +125.56 (+0.65%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Take Another Beating While Gold and Silver Soar; Oil Flat; April 2nd is "Liberation Day" on Trump Tariffs

As "uncertainty" - over tariffs and other Trump administration policies - was surely the buzzword of the past few weeks, "positioning" is likely to supplant it in the financial lexicon as U.S. markets and the rest of the world adjusts to the new, emergent Trump regime.

Quite frankly, there's been an obvious shift away from the Magnificent 7 and other tech stocks, but the sectors that will weather the storm have yet to be defined. Fixed income has benefitted, as the Fed appears in no rush to lower interest rates, and consumer staples, with inflation on the wane, could be the next big thing, along with materials, utilities, and possibly health care, although, akin to financials, that sector could be a roll of the dice.

Global recession cannot be entirely ruled out, though the depth and length of such is a topic for debate. Politically speaking, the Trump team would prefer deep and short, giving ample time for recovery prior to the midterms while at the same time causing enough pain to shake out weak players.

Trump's so-called "weave" design may initially appear to be more of a shake down than a natural flow, but whatever the course or manner, change is necessary, and good. The first quarter, in terms of GDP, looks to be a disaster superficially, with estimates ranging from below-par growth of maybe one to one-and-a-half percent to outright decline of as much as three percent.

The first estimate of 2025 1Q GDP won't be disclosed until the last Thursday in April (24th) and there's ample potential for the economy and markets to turn any which way. Consensus opinion may be looking at the worst of times in anticipation of better days ahead, but the overall picture, on Wall Street's usual short-term outlook, isn't very constructive.

Stocks

As many suspected, Monday's big rally turned out to be nothing more than a fat tabby taking a huge bounce.Major indices trended back toward lows set mid-March. With April 2nd's "liberation day" (according to President Trump) falling on Wednesday, the week ahead looks to be one of the more precarious in recent memory, which is saying a lot, considering recent volatility.

Monday marks the official end to the first quarter. Judging by market action on Friday, a deep downturn, there would not appear to be much in the way of last minute window dressing on schedule other than further shedding of tech, financials and other risky individual names.

Since the inauguration, the 10 weeks hence have produced five weeks lower and five higher for the Dow, though the down weeks were more extreme than those positive. On the NASDAQ, only three weeks were positive, with seven producing losses. Four of the last five have been downers, the same applying to the S%P.

Similarities to the 2022 bear market are striking, if not even more enhanced. Back then, the S&P lost 23% from the start of the year to the middle of June. The NASDAQ lost 33% from its high of November 19, 2021 through mid-June, 2022. Both declined slightly more before recovery began in late October, early November, 2022.

With the NASDAQ re-entering correction this past week (-14%), the tech-laden index closed less than 20 points from its recent low from March 13 (17,303.01). April Fool's Day, which is Tuesday, may be a watershed for the NASDAQ, plunging to fresh lows with an even more decisive day next.

For what its worth, the S&P finished this week down 9.13% from its recent all-time high of February 19. Putting strict definitions aside, semantics allows for the S&P to be included in "correction territory" as well.

Tariff imposition on Wednesday will highlight the week's economic events. Other than that, employment will be in focus with Wednesday's JOLTS report and ADP's private sector report for March. The week closes out with March Non-farm payrolls on Friday.

Very few companies are reporting earnings this week:

Monday: FTC Solar (FTCI), Synergy (SNRY), I Am Cannabis (IMCC); (after close) Open Lending (LPRO), Red Cat (RCAT)

Tuesday: (after close) Sportsman's Warehouse (SPWH)

Wednesday: (before open) BlackBerry (BB), UniFirst (UNF); (after close) Penguin Solutions (PENG), Bassett (BSET)

Thursday: (before open) Renovo RX (RNXT), Conagra (CAG); (after close) Guess (GES).

The IPO of CoreWeave (CRWV), which went to market on the Nasdaq last week, didn't go very well. CoreWeave's shares closed flat, at $40 per share after opening nearly three percent below the offer price in its Friday debut, implying a valuation of $23 billion. Its close affiliation to Nvidia cast a dark shadow over the AI investment boom.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09
03/21/2025	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.33	4.29	4.26	4.04
03/28/2025	4.38	4.35	4.35	4.33	4.30	4.26	4.04

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62
03/21/2025	3.94	3.92	4.00	4.12	4.25	4.60	4.59
03/28/2025	3.89	3.91	3.98	4.11	4.27	4.65	4.64

Spreads blew out this week with 2s-10s at +38 basis points and full spectrum +26. Traders were buying mostly the 2-year note and selling the long end, from 10s out to 30s. Bills remained elevated and stagnant with prospects for any Fed rate decreases any time soon looking rather bleak. Currently, the attitude has shifted away from rate cuts coming from inflation to rate cuts as an emergency stimulus measure to stave off a recession.

The hard truth as it relates to the flat-lined curve and elevated short term rates is that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to lower rates even in a recessionary environment, having just spent the past few years battling inflation. The Fed should be conservative and measured when it comes to policy during this disruptive period. The worst thing the Fed could do is launch a move in one direction or another, only to have to reverse itself as changing conditions emerge.

The most probable policy for the Fed over the next six months to a year is to do nothing. As history has shown, they're very good at kicking back and going with the flow until they find themselves behind the curve. Interest rates, from a business perspective, are fair, and leaving the treasury market to the traders rather than as a function of Fed policy, lends itself to a more stable set of conditions, an overall plus for the economy.

Thus, the Fed becomes less relevant going forward as the market focuses on emerging economic conditions rather than being hopeful for the relief of lower short-term rates.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31
3/28: +38

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23
3/28: +26

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil gained for a third straight week, closing at $69.04 Friday, a meaningless advance from last week's closing price of $68.30, briefly trading over $70.00 per barrel for roughly three hours over the course of the week, never getting any higher than $70.09. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk. It is clear that under current conditions, the global market will not tolerate a price over $70.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump at $3.12, up just a penny from last week's $3.11. Gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February and were actually lower in November and December, but, a year ago, the national average was $3.52, so there's been progress. The recent price fluctuations are likely the result of summer blends coming online. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to this week's increase in oil's price, not necessarily a function of the price at the pump.

Gas prices this week are generally higher across the country.

California is up 12 cents this week at $4.73, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.64, is the cheapest, followed by Mississippi ($2.66), Texas ($2.72) and Louisiana ($2.73). Outside of Pennsylvania ($3.26) and Maryland ($3.17), New England and East coast states all range between $2.87 (New Hampshire) and $3.08 (Vermont). New York is $3.07.

Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00 except Florida, which jumped from $2.93 last week to $3.08 this Sunday. The Midwest is also elevated with Illinois at $3.43. Notably, Kansas ($2.81) is lowest. Missouri ($2.94), Nebraska ($2.96) and Ohio ($2.97) remained below $3.00, while the rest of the Midwest is above it. The West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.14, up seven cents from last week. Oregon is at $3.77, Nevada ($3.72) and Arizona ($3.32) are next, all higher by a few cents this week. Idaho is experiencing a sharp increase, up to $3.30, while neighboring Utah is $3.13.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at fewer states this week, with just 24 hitting the mark as opposed to 33 last week. Prospects for lower gas prices are roughly evenly matched against the same or higher prices. Concern over inflation has largely passed, with recession fear taking its place. A demand decline from recession and rising unemployment would fuel (pun intended) lower prices, but summer driving is a factor in the opposite direction.

On the supply side, the president's "drill, baby, drill" directive has been met with yawns and inconsistent support by oil producers who are reluctant to spend money on new projects when prices are, or could be, falling. While depressed oil and gas prices are a boon to the overall economy, they hurt profits at the major drillers and refiners, prompting a general wait-and-see attitude currently. When and if Trump's tariff regime becomes more clearly defined, producers will take appropriate actions.

Bitcoin

This week: $83,825.10
Last week: $85,049.05
2 weeks ago: $84,425.85
6 months ago: $65,544.22
One year ago: $69,666.93
Five years ago: $6,872.07

It was another rough week in the vacuous crypto-currency space. The leading edge of bitcoin took another step down the ladder toward incoherency and insolvency. Bitcoin and crypto in general is a massive fraud, likely perpetrated by the same kind of people who dreamt up the Federal Reserve and fiat currencies. On the fringes, so-called "stable-coins" may have some value, given they are actually backed by an acceptable currency.

Bitcoin, etherium, dogecoin, solana, etc., are fictions of financial imagination and are not likely to attain the level of acceptance and usage that would give credence to their claims of being the "ultimate world currency" or other such nonsense.

In terms of ownership, whales dominate. According to an article citing 2023 studies by the National Bureau of Economic Research and the University of Limerick:

According to blockchain analysts, approximately 6,952 BTC wallets control 58.21% of available bitcoins, which means about 0.01% of the total BTC holders have almost 60% of BTC's supply.

That suggests extremely uneven distribution along with potential for a 51% attack. Even so, such a large concentration of bitcoin holdings in so few hands and the implementation of bitcoin ETFs and other derivatives creates manipulation risks that - because of blockchain's inherent anonymity sturcture - can easily disrupt and distort the entire network without being evident.

The world is not ready for purely electronic money, though Europe, being the world's leader in stupid ideas, seems hell-bent on trying. The rest of the world can watch and laugh as Europe's economy descends into irrelevance.

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's almost no chance of it going back to that level. Falling to around $65,000-$70,000 before an even deeper plummet, seems the most likely direction, based on bitcoin's past history of crashes. Bitcoin's demise and those of the rest of the thousands of crypto-mintages is going to vaporize a large amount of what is perceived to be wealth. The worst part about bitcoin or crypto as an asset is that you can't even say one's wealth is "on paper" because any measure of crypto is electronic.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.74; last week: 90.96

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20
Gold price 3/30: $3,090.00

Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29
Silver price 3/30: $34.82

Gold set record after record last week and silver posted a 13-year high at $35.47 early Friday morning before being savaged on the COMEX the remainder of the day. Regardless, Friday's close was the highest in many long years, keeping pace with gold's stupendous advances.

Gold is up 18%, silver, 19%, year to date. Compared to stocks, precious metals are clearly the early winner of 2025 and the prospect for even higher prices is extremely positive.

One area in which Wall Street and the stock market crowd is blinded would be the continued emergence of BRICS and their international alliances. As negotiations over the future of Ukraine seem to be going nowhere, Russian president Putin last week avowed to continue pressing ahead with the BRICS agenda, which is for more unity of purpose and general well-being for all participants.

While Russia, China, India, et. al., are not openly proposing any imminent change to the global monetary system, it's useful to keep in mind that those three countries are the largest holders and users of gold (and silver, which should not be forgotten in the longer scheme) in the world. It would not be a stretch of the imagination to believe that the recent transfer of gold tonnage into the United States was a reaction to or an anticipation of BRICS leanings toward gold as at least a medium of international exchange.

The United States certainly does not wish to be shut out of a major trading bloc such as BRICS is and thus may be positioning itself to remain a key player in the re-alignment of global trade and finance. There is a strong tendency toward gold globally, and, although it's not being openly discussed in the mainstream media, behind the scenes there are governments and central banks wheeling towards an overhaul of world finance with gold as an integral part.

Continued momentum in the direction of BRICS and gold should not be overlooked as a key driver of the price of gold, which, outside the purview of the dying COMEX and LBMA, is setting new standards and prices on a regular basis in countries around the world.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.01	55.00	43.57	42.54
1 oz silver bar:	37.99	49.98	43.86	44.25
1 oz gold coin:	3,209.87	3,309.90	3,266.47	3,271.07
1 oz gold bar:	3,200.00	3,269.90	3,231.81	3,229.04

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose sharply through the week, to $43.56, advancing $3.04 from the March 23 price of $40.52 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

It has become rather obvious that stocks are correcting for overvalue as President Trump disrupts the world order with initiatives at home and tariffs abroad.

Financial talking heads may want to pin the coming recession on Trump, though it's hardly the president’s fault that the U.S. government has been a grifting, money-printing scam for the past 25 years, and especially the past four. President Trump is returning some degree of accountability to the federal government, dragging congress and the bureaucracy along, kicking and screaming.

In the longer term, Trump's policies are massively dis-inflationary. Ultimately, downsizing government, restoring balance to international trade and closing the U.S. borders should result in an era of prosperity. Further out, Trump is likely to attack the monetary system and the Federal Reserve by suggesting a return to some form of gold standard. Many individuals in his administration have a fondness for gold and Trump himself is a major gold bug.

The level of disruption Trump will foment in coming months is going to make the first weeks of his presidency look like a walk in the park.

At the Close, Friday, March 28, 2025:
Dow: 41,583.90, -715.80 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 17,322.99, -481.04 (-2.70%)
S&P 500: 5,580.94, -112.37 (-1.97%)
NYSE Composite: 19,270.30, -264.42 (-1.35%)

For the Week:
Dow: -401.45 (-0.96%)
NASDAQ: -461.06 (-2.49%)
S&P 500: -86.62 (-1.53%)
NYSE Composite: -148.01 (-0.95%)
Dow Transports: -291.31 (-1.96%)

February Core PCE Inconclusive; Trump Tariff Trauma Reaching Extremes; Gold, New Highs Daily; Silver Makes 13-year high

The word of the day is "uncertainty."

The gains from Monday have been largely rolled back by declines the past two days. Through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is ahead by 314 points on the week, NASDAQ is up 20, S&P 500 is up 25 points, and the NYSE Composite is down 51 points.

Not to be forgotten, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is up 275 points for the week, a gain of 1.88%. Some of the 20 component stocks of the $TRAN may be targets of bottom-fishers, as the index has had five consecutive weeks of losses, is trading well below its 200-day moving average and executed a "death cross" a little more than a week ago, with the 50-day dropping below the 200-day moving average. This week's gains might also be indicative of either a short squeeze or shorts closing out positions with profits. More than likely, it's a combination of the two, in addition to some bargain hunting.

Heading into the final session of the week, and second-last of the month and quarter, positioning may be a priority for funds, wishing to demonstrate proper allocations to their clientele. It would be reasonable to assume that the majority of long funds would show a preference for defensive positions in raw materials, consumer staples, utilities, and possibly health care while departing from information technology, financials, and consumer discretionary sectors.

Some of those trades may be set up for Monday, March 31, though it would seem obvious for fund managers to be scaling into positions in advance of the quarter-ending date and Trump's April 2nd tariffs, which the president has nicknamed "liberation day", in the belief that heavy tariffs will free American companies from tariffs and unfair trade policies effected by other nations.

How President Trump's tariff schemes play out is the main subject of debate within the investment community. With so many moving parts involved in global trade, even company managers with inside knowledge of their business structures and policies may not have a firm grip on what's about to unfold, creating an environment full of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) that is in no way beneficial to the smooth functioning of any business venture.

The major indices having moved only fractionally through Thursday sets up an intriguing dynamic to close out the week. Will traders see more volatility ahead or be able to conjure up some rationale to add to positions or stake out new opportunities? From a day-trading and algo-watching perspective, this is the essential question. Given prevailing choppiness in markets, it is difficult to discern any kind of consensus in either direction, though, admittedly, bears appear to be holding a strong hand.

Amid the confusion in equity markets, precious metals, the bastion of security, have advanced powerfully. As of Friday morning, gold has made new highs yet again, reaching $3,094.90 on the COMEX, while silver may finally be breaking out, marking a 13-year high at $35.49 early Friday morning.

Mass confusion over tariffs and other issues of governance, geo-politics, and valuations has served to enhance the prospects of gold and silver, both from a position of protection and one of anticipation for what may soon be a complete overhaul of global finance. The topic of gold-backed currency has been increasingly mentioned in economic circles for reasons that should be obvious. Central bank purchases of gold tonnage has been at or near record levels for three years running. If the supposedly wisest and largest currency managers on the planet are hoarding gold, they are not doing so devoid of some deeper, ulterior purpose.

With much of the world on a razor's edge, who can blame them?

Minutes ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released February PCE data, showing the year-over-year PCE price index for February increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8 percent from one year ago.

From January, the PCE price index for February increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.4 percent. The monthly headline numbers were generally in line with expectations, while the year-ago numbers were something of a head-scratcher with the full PCE below expectations and core, above.

The release didn't go over well in the futures market, with stock futures dropping near to morning lows. With less than half an hour until the opening bell, Dow futures are down 100 points, NASDAQ futures off 92, and S&P futures sliding about 20 points.

These numbers are going to be interpreted as somewhat inconclusive in terms of Fed interest rate policy, as the PCE is the most-favored inflation indicator.

Happy trading!

At the Close, Thursday, March 27, 2025:
Dow: 42,299.70, -155.09 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 17,804.03, -94.98 (-0.53%)
S&P 500: 5,693.31, -18.89 (-0.33%)
NYSE Composite: 19,534.72, -51.11 (-0.26%)

$5,000 Gold Becoming More and More Realistic; Stocks Continue to Suffer from Trump Tariff Trauma; $70 Crude Oil Not Happening

While stocks continue to rise and, mostly, fall, precious metals are basically kicking A$$ and taking names, as gold and silver this morning are each up close to 16% year-to-date.

That would be considered a pretty good year for most stocks or even the metals, but it's only March 27. Gold and silver have much further upside. There's a very good possibility that gold will hit $3,500 this year. and silver will - some day - vault over $40 per ounce.

To the non-believers, consider that for gold to hit $3,500 this year it would have to rise another 15% or so. On December 31, 2024, gold, on the COMEX continuous contract was $2,618.10. If it hits $3,500 this year that would be an overall gain of 33.7%, or, a little better than what it did last year (27%).

A five-year chart of gold or silver shows the same thing, the trajectory is rising. It wasn't that long ago - two years - that gold breached the $2,000 level for the first time (March 25, 2023). Over the next year, to late March, 2024, it only rose about another $180. So, over the past year - late March 2024 to late March, 2025 - the gain has been approaching astronomical levels. From $2,180 to $3,060 today is a gain of over 40%.

Gold may continue on this upward trajectory and might even surpass that 40%, meaning that by this time next year, the gold you hold now at $3,060 could very well be worth $4,284. With world politics being what it is currently - a total crap-shoot - that actually doesn't seem very far-fetched.

Gold and silver suppression has been a kind of sport or parlor game for the purveyors of fiat currencies, in particular, the mighty US dollar, for decades. Of late, the dollar has been strong against other currencies, except, of course, the currency that is actual MONEY, gold. While the US$ has been holding its own against the euro, pound and yen, it's been taken behind the woodshed and beaten to a pulp by gold, and, to a lesser extent, silver. That's because the actual purchasing power of the dollar has been falling, debased by easy money policies of the Federal Reserve and profligate spending by the federal government.

President Trump, with exemplary assistance by Elon Musk and his team at DOGE, is changing part of that equation. The aim is to restore honesty, integrity, and accountability to the government. No more work from home. No more shuffling papers to make $80,000 a year. No more money to agencies like USAid and the Department of Education - just to name a few obvious examples - that produce nothing other than expense for U.S. taxpayers.

Trump's plan of austerity for the government will likely result in a balanced budget during his term, and probably a surplus for the first time this century. That would change the calculus on gold's value to some degree, though there's much more to gold's story than just that.

Central banks continue to buy gold hand over fist, as they've done for the past three years running. That is not going to stop. Anybody keeping tabs on BRICS also is aware that they are not going away just because America suddenly has a sane, purposeful president. Their path continues to be clear. Bilateral trade between BRICS members and associates will continue to be a central theme for them. Settlement in gold, while not practical at present because of the volatile nature of geo-politics and the price of gold (which are intertwined), is also part of the longer-term agenda.

Clouding the global trade picture are Trump's tariffs, designed to level the playing field for the United States, though U.S. trading partners aren't about to stand idly by and pay tribute to the U.S.A. Retaliatory tariffs are already on the menu, and the prices are going up. If, as many economists contend, tariffs mean inflation, that will only add to gold's charm and price appreciation. Even if the tariffs prove to be only mildly inflationary, gold will still maintain its underlying value as the currency of final choice.

The inflation from tariffs may not be felt as acutely in the United States as in other countries, as they scramble for trade policies to salvage their economies. Over the longer term, the major trading countries - primarily, the United States, China, Russia, India, Brazil, and the European Union - will sort things out and decide to either go to war or settle on some rational trade policy settlement currency, and that is most likely to be gold.

A year ago, when gold was just breaking towards $2,200, talk of $3,000 gold was considered by some to be a pipe dream, yet, here we are, one year hence, with gold holding above $3,000 and not looking back.

It's time to take the people who've been talking about $5,000 or $10,000 gold more seriously.

++++++++++++++

Monday's stock market rally is already a fading memory and beginning to look like just another run-f-the-mill bear market, short-covering rally with no follow through. Tuesday's trade was tepid, to say the least, and without conviction. Wednesday's trading erased almost all of the gains from the first two days and it appears that the lows from March 13 are soon to be re-tested. It's a safe bet that they won't hold, simply because the lows, especially on the NASDAQ and S&P 500, were not at significant support levels.

Besides the chartist view, stocks remain overvalued, the U.S. is headed for a recession within months, if not weeks, and Trump, Musk, DOGE, and Border Czar Tom Homan are just getting started. Thanks to activist judges, much of the work done the past two months to eliminate waste, fraud, abuse, and millions of illegals has been put on hold or otherwise turned back. That's going to change. The courts don't have the power to block presidential, executive actions. Watch and see what happens at the Supreme Court level, soon to come.

This morning, the third and final estimate of 4th quarter 2024 GDP came in at 2.4%, which wasn't of much importance, up 0.1% from the first and second estimates. Since GDP is a lagging indicator, more important, moving forward, will be GDP for the 1st quarter, which will be released the last Thursday in April.

The estimates for 1Q GDP are not encouraging, ranging from +1.5 to -2.5%. There's ample time for stocks and interest rates to adjust to what is likely to be a newer reality. In the meantime, all anybody can talk about is tariffs. The problem is that nobody knows for certain what effect tariffs will have on trade policy of other countries, inflation, or any other metric that may be affected.

Markets, disliking uncertainty, are going to be quite volatile for longer than most people expect.

As of 8:30 am ET, S&P futures are basically flat, NASDAQ futures are 24 points down, Dow futures are up 69. There's more downside coming, if not today, then soon enough.

WTI crude oil traded for over $70/barrel for about an hour on Wednesday. It was the first time in a month that the price was at that level and it did not hold. Oil is going to settle in somewhere around $66-68, possibly lower.

Gold made another record on the COMEX at $3,065 this morning, but the bigger move was in silver, hitting a six-month high of $34.83. Should silver break above $35 - a key resistance - and hold, it’s a straight shot to $40.

A bear market in stocks and a bull market in precious metals are the most obvious developments. Hard to miss.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 26, 2025:
Dow: 42,454.79, -132.71 (-0.31%)
NASDAQ: 17,899.02, -372.84 (-2.04%)
S&P 500: 5,712.20, -64.45 (-1.12%)
NYSE Composite: 19,585.83, -92.61 (-0.47%)

Markets Uncertain After Rally Stalls; Trump Tariff Trauma, Conflicting Economic Reports Lead Mid-week Trading

After Monday's huge bounce to the upside, there wasn't much in the way of follow through, suggesting stocks may take another downturn shortly.

Tuesday's gains were of the smallish variety. Only the NASDAQ - being the most-leveraged of the indices - had any semblance of conviction. The broadest measure, the NYSE Composite, was actually down slightly, which is why Money Daily always reports it and others don't. Perception is half the battle in shaping outlooks.

With most of the economic data coming in below expectations, this morning's US durable goods orders came in at +0.9% against expectations of -1.0% after January was revised up from +3.2% to +3.3, defying the general logic that the U.S. is headed for a recession.

On the other hand, anybody not quite convinced that a global recession is soon to occur (if not already happening) needs to read this information from Schwab (twice):

The U.S. Q4 2024 final gross domestic product (GDP) comes out on Thursday. The previous print was 2.3% which is the highest in the world and the only country above 2%. The latest updates from China, Japan, and the United Kingdom are 1.6%, 0.6% and 0.1%, respectively. The Euro area is at 0% including Germany at –0.2%.

Two percent growth is somewhat of a baseline for GDP anywhere in the world. The idea that most countries aren't making the grade has to be a concern beyond the rhetoric of tariffs, the inflation-deflation debate, federal government downsizing, geo-politics, and the excessive assortment of market-altering events and news that seem to be popping up not only daily, but several times a day.

Wednesday appears to be a mixed bag. Futures are mixed, with Dow futures up 82, NASDAQ futures down 20, and S&P futures flat. WTI crude oil is closing in on $70 a barrel after US supply was drawn down in the latest energy report. Gold is hovering around $3,035, with silver catching a bid above $34.40.

Markets dislike uncertainty.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 25, 2025:
Dow: 42,587.50, +4.18 (+0.01%)
NASDAQ: 18,271.86, +83.26 (+0.46%)
S&P 500: 5,776.65, +9.08 (+0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 19,678.44, -25.77 (-0.13%)

4,000 Money Daily Posts Later, Nothing Has Changed; Corruption, Deficits, Loose Monetary Policy Keep the Plates Spinning

Editor's Note: According to Google's Blogger stats, this is post number 4,000 of Money Daily.

After last week's modest gains, stocks got the green light Monday, supposedly on some perceived softening of President Trump's tariff stance, and traders took the bait like a hungry school of fish, sending the major indices to the best gains in weeks.

The overall effect of Monday's rise will be to instill some confidence in markets, though how enduring the thrill may be is questionable. Nothing eally has changed in terms of geo-politics, economics, or market structure other than a one-day wondrous rally. Anybody with skin in the game knows that trends do not develop overnight and the start of the week, though buoyant, may face downward pressure in subsequent sessions.

One item that may or may not impact sentiment was the earnings report from KB Home (KBH), one of America's largest builders of new homes. The company reported revenues of $1.39 Billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.49, both of which fell short of estimates.

According to CEO, Jeffrey Mezger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer:

"Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their homebuying decisions. Demand at the start of this Spring’s selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities. In mid-February, we took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to these adjustments. Although we missed our sales goals for the first quarter, we are encouraged by the significant improvement in weekly sales and normalizing absorption pace over the last five weeks."

OK, things are about to pick up. So says the CEO. Raise your hand if you're buying that line of reasoning. Um, anybody? How about, "we slashed our prices and a few suckers ponied up."

At a median price of $446,300, the only people buying KB's McMansions are those caught in the past or devoid of any rudimentary understanding of supply and demand economics. Prices have more than doubled since the brief bottom in 2009-10, thanks in large part to the Fed's aggressive zero interest rate policy and multiple rounds of money creation (QE). Not to be forgotten, the screaming fraud of pandemic stimulus raised new home prices by about a third in just two years (2020-2022).

Being the gold standard for ignoring the obvious, Wall Street will probably look right past the extreme unaffordability of housing that's become normalized over the past four years thanks to free-spending policies of Joe and Kamala and their colleagues in congress and step up to buy more stocks, because, as we all know, stocks never go down, except when they do.

As noted in the edit at the start of this post, this is the 4,000th daily screed and nothing has changed. Wall Street remains possibly the most corrupt acreage on the planet (City of London vying for top honors) and deluded individuals continue to feed the beast, expecting their money to grow like it was fruit from a tree when the reality is that the currency has been debased to near worthlessness and their wealth is a grandiose fiction.

Maybe the next 4,000 posts will offer some improvement.

At the Close, Monday, March 24, 2025:
Dow: 42,583.32, +597.97 (+1.42%)
NASDAQ: 18,188.59, +404.54 (+2.27%)
S&P 500: 5,767.57, +100.01 (+1.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,704.21, +249.90 (+1.28%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Markets Take Bit of a Pause (from selling); Gold:Silver Ratio hits 90; Oil, Gas Prices Rise; Is Wall Street Worthy of Trust?

There are moments in which one has to question whether the entire financial system - particularly the stock market - isn't just one big rigged gentleman's game.

Friday was one of those moments.

Were it not for the market-wide rally off the morning lows, wherein the Dow was down more than 500 points, the NASDAQ was off by 200, and the S&P had slumped 60 points, these weekly results might all have been negatives, at least in the case of the NAZ and S&P, which would have resulted in five straight weekly losses.

Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)

Being that Friday was a quad-witching day, there were all manner of trades to be made, especially in the realm of options and futures, by which stocks could be guided in any direction, higher, lower, or both ways if need be.

The case can be made that Friday's rally was nothing more than a massive short squeeze. Indeed, all short, day-long rallies of the past few weeks might easily be redefined as short squeezes, the maligned bulls getting a small dose of redemption by taking out the weakest hands, keeping those ravenous bears from further degradation of their precious assets.

There's obviously more in play than the bruised egos of the powerful elite. Pension and retirement funds, IRAs, 401k plans, and the general well-being and "wealth effect" of the global village is tied to U.S. stock markets. When these assets get written down, the losses are felt far afield. It is thus in the best interests of the Wall Street horde and their muppet clients to keep stocks at premium levels, with valuations that are of the sky-high pie-in-the-sky variety, like Nvidia, Amazon, META, and the rest of the tech stocks, or more reasonable dividend-yielding types like some Dow stocks, maybe Boeing, or Walmart, Home Depot, Coca-Cola, IBM, et. al.

Americans are easily amused and just as easily distracted or deceived. They assume Wall Street employs the best and brightest, after the government's intelligence and IRS types, of course. Residing at the top of the heap does not necessarily confer high moral grounding, however, a common misconception amongst the great unwashed.

Americans used to trust its institutions: the government, the media, Wall Street. Now that many lies and deceptions of the past are being exposed, it's not a stretch to assume that trust is long since broken, but the lies and deception continue. Maybe there will be more truths exposed. Maybe not.

But, like the neurotic paranoid attests, "just because you think you're being followed doesn't make it not true."

Wealth effect. That's about as practical (for keeping the herd inside the fences) as trickle-down economics or geo-political domino theory.

Chew on that Americans. Then check and see if your lunch money is all still in your pocket.

Stocks

The major averages finished the week on a slightly positive note. Over the course of the past six weeks, however, stocks are still down significantly. The Dow Transports remain deeply red and the NASDAQ is still in what most people consider "correction territory," down -11.85% from December 16 highs. Though the other indices aren't quite as badly damaged, believing that the worst is over just because this week finished on a high note is delusional.

Markets are quite obviously at the start of a bear market phase. In about a month's time (end April), the initial estimate of first quarter GDP will be released. Odds are that it's either going to be very weak, in the range of 0.5-1.5% growth or outright negative, possibly as negative as -2.6-3.5%. There's plenty of money sloshing around, so liquidity isn't a problem yet, but Americans having been ravaged by inflation the past few years while to government was overspending in order to make the economy appear robust and prosperous, the physics of equal and opposite effects are about to be sprung.

Credit card and auto loan deficiencies are rising. Household income is stagnant at best and the effects of the DOGE cuts and other cost-saving measures have yet to be incorporated into the overall equation. Publicly-traded companies, as much as they are trading at perfection-level valuations, aren't wildly profitable. Some have issued profit and revenue warnings. Others are already suffering, with year-ago measures not up to par. Beyond tech stocks, which have been the hardest hit, financials and consumer discretionary sectors have been degraded.

Restaurant chains are beginning to compete on price as inflation become less of a worry and deflation, the Fed's utmost worry, begins to materialize as spending slows and austerity becomes prudent.

Under current conditions, stocks, in general, are less likely to rise than they are to decline further.

Companies reporting earnings this week:

Monday: (before open) Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Lucid Diagnostics (LUCD); (after close) Abivax (ABVX), KB Home (KBH), Dragonfly (DFLI)

Tuesday: (before open) McCormick (MKC), Smithfield (SFD), Rumble (RUM), CanadianSolar (CSIQ); (after close) Corvus Pharmaceuticals (CRVS), Paysign (PAYS), Kolibri (KGEI), GameStop (GME)

Wednesday: (before open) Chewy (CHWY), Paychex (PAYX), Cintas (CTAS), Dollar Tree ((DLTR); (after close) Petco (WOOF), Concentrix (CNXC), MicroVision (MVIS)

Thursday: (before open) Bitfarms (BITF), Winnebago (WGO); (after close) Lululemon (LULU), Abacus Life (ABL)

Friday: (before open) Katapult (KPLT), Super League (SLE).

For economic indicators, the coming week offers flash PMI readings from S&P, along with the third estimate on U.S. Q4 GDP growth. Core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) for February comes Friday.

The IPO market will be all about cloud computing firm CoreWeave (CRWV), expected to debut on the Nasdaq this week, looking to raise as much as $2.7 billion This IPO, being Nvidia-related, offers an acid test of the suspect AI trade.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09
03/21/2025	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.33	4.29	4.26	4.04

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62
03/21/2025	3.94	3.92	4.00	4.12	4.25	4.60	4.59

The FOMC meeting last Tuesday and Wednesday did little to change expectations, sending yields on long-dated maturities lower. Indicating two 25 basis point cuts still to come this year, the Fed is pushing on a string against fiscal restraint on the government side.

Beyond the Fed becoming less influential than it has been in maybe 25 years, fiscal policy is in the driver's seat. Bond vigilantes will set the tone.

The spread on 2s-10s widened out to +31, a healthy level, but the overall curve is still flat on an historical basis.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29
3/21: +31

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25
3/21: +23

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil gained for a second straight week, closing at $68.30 Friday, a solid gain from last week's closing price of 67.19. Crude remains under pressure with further downside risk.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up, from $3.04 last Sunday to the current $3.11, which, despite not being a huge bump, is concerning since gas prices haven't actually declined much since January and February. They were actually lower in November and December. The price hike could be the result of summer blends coming online or simply refiners making better profits. The federal government has begun refilling the depleted strategic oil reserve, which also could have contributed to the general increase.

California remains at $4.61, the priciest gas in the country. Oklahoma, at $2.63, and Mississippi ($2.64) are the lowest. outside of Pennsylvania ($3.22), New England and East coast states all range between $2.85 (New Hampshire) and $3.05 (New York).

Every state in the Southeast is under $3.00, including Florida, which comes in at $2.93. The Midwest is elevated while the West continues to have the highest prices. Along with California, Washington is the only state above $4.00, at $4.07. Oregon is at $3.70, Nevada ($3.68) and Arizona ($3.34) are next.

Sub-$3.00 gas can be found in at least 33 U.S. states this week.

Bitcoin

This week: $85,049.05
Last week: $84,425.85
2 weeks ago: $83,414.10
6 months ago: $63,130.39
One year ago: $67,228.68
Five years ago: $6886.60

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000-$70,000.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 90.96; last week: 87.76

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 3/16: $2,993.60
Gold price 3/23: $3,028.20

Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 3/16: $34.11
Silver price 3/23: $33.29

To the dismay of many stackers, silver backtracked this week just as gold was setting new records. The gold:silver ratio has been out of whack for decades, and one wonders if it will ever be normalized again. Silver, as it is still recognized as a monetary metal, has been suppressed much more virulently than gold, and continues to be.

This weekend's gold:silver ratio of 90.96 screams, "buy silver."

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.99	48.00	40.58	39.89
1 oz silver bar:	37.00	44.50	40.61	41.00
1 oz gold coin:	3,053.95	3,378.91	3,229.71	3,247.46
1 oz gold bar:	3,039.00	3,194.24	3,151.65	3,155.35

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was knocked back this week, to $40.52, a decline of $1.74 from the March 16 price of $42.26 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

This week was more or less a pause from the frenetic pace the past eight weeks since President Trump's inauguration. There is still time to adjust.

At the Close, Friday, March 21, 2025:
Dow: 41,985.35, +32.03 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 17,784.05, +92.42 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 5,667.56, +4.67 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,454.30, -82.97 (-0.42%)

For the Week:
Dow: +497.16 (+1.20%)
NASDAQ: +29.96 (+0.17%)
S&P 500: +28.62 (+0.51%)
NYSE Composite: +222.96 (+1.16%)
Dow Transports: -34.94 (-0.24%)

Friday's Options, Futures Expirations Likely to Produce Volatile Session; Transportation Average Close to Bear Market, -17%

The end is here.

The end of the week, that is, which prompts checking the week-to-date results of the major indices heading into what should be a fairly volatile session, being the third Friday of the month, and a quad witching day (stock and index futures, stock and index options expiration) at that.

For the week through Thursday's closing bell, the Dow is up 465 points and residing just below its 200-day moving average. NASDAQ is off 62 points and the S&P is up 24. The NYSE Composite is tagging along with a 305-point gain. The badly-damaged Dow Jones Transportation Average is close to flat-lining, down five points, having just executed a death cross, with the 50-day moving below the 200-day moving average.

The Transports, incidentally, are dangerously close to bear market territory (14,637.85), down 17.55% from its high of 17,1754.38 at the Novemebr 25 close. While seldom mentioned, the Transportation Average is something over which analysts should analyze a bit. Though it's only 20 stocks, they are mostly airlines and freight movers like FedEx, UPS, JB Hunt, Old Dominion, and Ryder. When these companies are ailing, it usually means products and people aren't moving, i.e., the economy is slowing.

One can't help but notice Avis (CAR) down 38%, United Airlines (UAL) off 27.8%, Old Dominion down 18%, and FedEx off 8% in the past month. The only component showing a gain over the past 30 days is UPS, up a paltry 0.3%.

Specking of Dow components, Nike (NIKE, industrial) and FedEx (FDX, transports) both posted quarterly results after the bell Thursday and the results were fairly depressing. Both are down between eight and nine percent heading toward the open.

As Friday's open approaches, stock futures are a bit bemused by the chaotic events from the Trump presidency and its offshoots, primarily the torching of Teslas across the country and continuing lawfare by activist judges shutting down everything coming out of the White House including deportations and federal downsizing. The level of contempt for the president shown by grifting, bought off goons in robes is alarming and unprecedented. Meanwhile, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts has done nothing to reign in these judicial malcontents, his inaction fueling even more vindictive, unconstitutional rulings from district courts around the country.

In the ongoing standoff between the Executive and Judicial branches, the White House is likely to come out ahead sinply because these judges have no mechanism by which to enforce their rulings. That is the job of the executive, and it's impossible to imagine the Trump administration engaged in self-flagellation.

The assault on the White House by unelected judges, media, and loud-mouthed members of the party out of power in congress poses great risk to the welfare of the entire country. Missing is the message to stand with America's president. Instead, Democrats and other minions of the liberal left offer "resistance" as the sole plank in their wobbly, unsustainable platform of opposition to the will of the majority. It's a saddening reminder of how deep the hatred runs in the capital swamp.

Minutes before the open, stock futures have taken a turn for the worse. Dow futures: -260; NASDAQ futures: 172; S&P futures: -40.

Hang on to your hats, though you may want to loosen your grip on some stocks.

At the Close, Thursday, March 20, 2025:
Dow: 41,953.32, -11.31 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 17,691.63, -59.16 (-0.33%)
S&P 500: 5,662.89, -12.40 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,537.27, -44.05 (-0.22%)

Fed Keeps Rates on Hold; Markets Overjoyed, But the Move Was Vacant; Gold Still Rising, When Silver Breaks Out, Everything Changes

Generally speaking, articles published on Yahoo! Finance tend to lean a little to the left and are almost always anti-Trump.

For its frankness, this story, published Thursday morning caught the eye and didn't disappoint on the Trump-bashing front. The article was penned by Trevor Jennewine, of The Motley Fool, not one of Yahoo! Finance's usual hacks, which may help explain why it made the front page at all.

The article, titled, "A Stock Market Alarm Is Sounding for the Third Time in 20 Years. History Says This Will Happen Next," delineates the bear markets of 2008-09 and 2020, citing negative GDP in both instances. To wit:

2008-2009: GDP declined 2.5% in Q4 2008 and remained negative through Q3 2009 as the housing market collapsed and borrowers defaulted on subprime mortgages. Those events led to the Great Recession.

2020: GDP declined 7.5% in Q2 2020 and remained negative through Q4 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic forced business closures and social distancing that disrupted supply chains around the world. Those events led to brief recession.

Noting that the first quarter of 2025 is currently projected to post a negative result somewhere between 1.5 and 2.6 by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast, the article goes on to posit... "the S&P 500 fell 56% from its high during the Great Recession, and the benchmark index fell 33% during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic."

If GDP does come in at a negative number, Yahoo! will most likely blame Trump and begin blaring about how tariffs and firings of useless federal employees are leading to a recession that will be devastating for the middle class and erode confidence in his presidency.

OK, sure. Yahoo! Finance isn't known for being shy about misplacing blame or beating the Donald's reputation into the ground, but, their honest assessment of the situation in Thursday's article may indicate that the selling in the stock market is far from over, despite wins for the bulls in three of the past four sessions.

While the recent gains may have cheered up some investors, the gains actually haven't amounted to much. While the S&P was rescued from "correction territory", it is still down eight percent from its February high and the NASDAQ is still hunkered down some 12% from December 16 and the Dow Transportation Average even further in the red.

The Big Three - Dow, NASDAQ, S&P - remain below their 200-day moving average while the NYSE Composite has regained the space between the 50 and 200-day moving averages. Other than the Composite (+2.54), they're all down year-to-date, led by the NASDAQ's 8.08% drop.

Earlier Thursday morning, something either spooked the stock futures or there's some serious horse-trading going on behind the scenes. All three majors were positive, then, suddenly, dropped like rocks into a quarry, sinking into the negative waters. It was probably a reaction to ECB President Christine Lagarde, saying US tariffs could negatively affect growth prospects in the Eurozone, a laughable statement at best, since most of Europe is already in a recession or is soon to be.

In any case, with initial unemployment claims coming in quietly at 223,000, there remains plenty to suggest that Wednesday's vacuous gains based on literally no reassurances from the Fed or Chairman Powell are soon to be vaporized by the reality of slowing economies worldwide. Keeping an eye on gold rising ($3,050) and WTI crude oil swooning ($67.17 at 9:00 am ET), there are more indicators pointing to lower for longer on the stocks front. Silver shorts on the COMEX are at record levels. If silver ever breaks out above $35, it could signal a fairly rapid move to $50 and the end of the COMEX, the entire financial system and the world as we know it. Well, maybe not everything blows up, but, silver IS money, after all, and central banks don't own any, except Russia and maybe China.

When silver moves, look out below for falling currencies, economies, and entire Western nations. France, England and South Korea being prime candidates for overthow.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 19, 2025:
Dow: 41,964.63, +383.32 (+0.92%)
NASDAQ: 17,750.79, +246.67 (+1.41%)
S&P 500: 5,675.29, +60.63 (+1.08%)
NYSE Composite: 19,581.32, +159.74 (+0.82%)

Two-Day Rally Stalls, Fails; Stocks Remain Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC Decision; Gold's Record-Setting Rally Continues

Tuesday turned out to be another rough day for equity holders as the rally that began on Friday and was extended Monday fizzled out, pointing the Dow and S&P back towards correction territory. The NASDAQ and Dow Transports remain stuck well below the -10% mark usually associated with corrections.

Wednesday afternoon (2:00 pm ET), the Fed will issue its March rate policy decision, expected to be more or less a reiteration of January's pause, holding the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, considered by veteran bond dealers to be reasonable, though opinions differ.

With inflation cooling, the 10-year note stabilizing around 4.30%, roughly the same as overnight federal funds, new age economists, inbued with years of ultra-low and even negative rates, consider anything above the rate of inflation to be excessive, thus the endless cacophony of cooing for lower rates sooner than what the Fed is offering, which is, ostensibly, one or two rate cuts this year, with the distinct possibility of none at all, barring a recession.

To be fair, the 10-year at four to five percent is historically low and the fact that the yield curve is approaching the contour of a flat line, indicates little more than a sluggish environment where neither lenders nor borrowers are pleased.

Today's FOMC statement will be closely analyzed and dissected for any clues to the Fed's intentions. Quarterly projections by Fed members and Chairman Powell's press conference will also be scrutinized by analysts and the financial media. Powell's question and answer period may be more interesting than usual given the range of issues the Fed faces, from an inflation-deflation debate to recession possibility, unemployment and a sliding stock market.

More than likely, Powell will be tight-lipped on most topics, claiming data-dependency and a wait-and-see approach.

With the market opening on the positive side, both camps of bulls and bears see opportunity. Bulls may be bargain-hunting while bears still consider stocks overvalued and any gains more potential for downside risk. Lately, any attempts by the market to rally significantly have been quickly quashed as investors have become more and more non-committal in opening new positions, seeking rather to shed losers and trim holdings, taking outsized profits to the bank.

Gold continues to ratchet higher, setting another record at $3,052.40 earlier this morning on the COMEX. Silver continues wavering near recent highs, with the hurdles of $34.50 and $35.00 significant obstacles given the extreme levels of shorting of the second metal.

WTI crude oil continues floundering about between $65 and $68, a reasonable range given the supply-demand dynamics currently in play. Supply being more than adequate and OPEC remaining at lower production levels, President Trump's calls to "drill, baby, drill," may be falling on deaf ears.

Bitcoin appears to have based at $80,000. Since making a double-bottom a week ago, upside movement has been limited. There are indications that a drop below $80,000 would trigger a rapid sell-off of another $10,000, with modest support around $70,000. Bitcoin's rally from $70,000 to $90,000 took just 10 days (November 4 - 14, 2024) which means buying was thin. There's also a good amount of fresh money in play from mid-November to mid-February that is currently held at a loss. When buyer's remorse becomes a call to action, the pace of selling could overwhelm the high-sided "hodlers" as diamond hands turn to coal.

With stocks hitting the high road prior to what's expected to be a rather mundane Fed announcement, the potential for an afternoon swoon becomes increasingly possible. Unless Chairman Powell indicates some form of relief on the way or the infamous dot plots offer more downside direction on rates, stock marketeers may be once more disappointed.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 18, 2024:
Dow: 41,581.31, -260.32 (-0.62%)
NASDAQ: 17,504.12, -304.55 (-1.71%)
S&P 500: 5,614.66, -60.46 (-1.07%)
NYSE Composite: 5,614.66, -60.46 (-1.07%)

Stocks Hold Friday Gains, Advance Second Straight Day; Gold Surges to Record as Fed Preps for FOMC Decision Wednesday

Stocks took the high road on Monday, following up on Friday's snap-back rally, posting gains in all the majors though the finish was extremely weak. In particular, NASDAQ, which was up 170 points with an hour left in the session, shed 2/3s of its gains into the close.

Monday, the government said retail sales rose a scant 0.2% in February. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.6% increase. Restaurant sales were down 1.5%, the largest decline in 13 months.

On Tuesday, the market needs to digest housing starts, building permits, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization before the opening bell. Those readings are expected to come largely in line with estimates. Import prices are probably not reflective of tariff effects yet.

Housing starts ripped 11.2% higher after dropping 11.5% in January, well above estimates of a +1.4% monthly gain. Building Permits fell 1.2% month over month.

Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent, a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average. Industrial Production was solid, up 0.7% in February.

On Wednesday, the FOMC delivers the second rate policy decision of 2025, expected to keep the federal funds target rate on hold, citing changing, challenging conditions. Following the 2:00 announcement, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and likely will take questions concerned over any deviation from economic projections from December. FOMC participants are not expected to cause much turbulence, though the market appears on edge, ready to drop another shoe, so to speak.

With the FOMC looming, Tuesday may be a repeat performance of Monday or could extend the tail that appeared late in Monday's session. Despite the seemingly large gains of the past two sessions, the majors are barely off last week's bottoms and have a lot of work to do just to

Resistance exists not far from where stocks closed Monday. A key level for the S&P appears at 5,700 and the index is at six-month lows. Buyers that fueled the rally from mid-September through mid-February must contend with being caught in a valuation trap. There's support for the S&P at 5400, 5200 and 5000, though it is ill-defined. Market forces have already signaled prevailing bearish conditions. The likelihood of a sustained rally rests on very slim assumptions and long odds.

The Dow and NASDAQ have similar set-ups with overhead resistance restraining the upside and market bottoms from August and September - the result of extensive coordinated and correlated algorithms - serving as markers for directional purposes.

From a chartist perspective, the overall picture is less-than-encouraging for the bulls. Sentiment has turned bearish, for many good reasons, among them continuing geo-political turbulence, trade and tariff concerns, expected GDP collapse for the first quarter, rising unemployment, and the potential for a recession in the U.S., rivaling what appears to be weak conditions across Europe, with political leadership steering economies toward a glacial outcome.

One could easily assume the worst is yet to come in Europe, though the equity markets in France, Germany, Britain, Spain, and elsewhere are trading at levels at or near all-time records. That particular anomaly is probably due more to a weakening U.S. dollar than to any factual basis of market fundamentals. Ir's almost as if Europeans are unaware that the equity bubble is bursting or their markets are even more divorced from reality than those in the United States. Sometimes, reality is stranger than fiction and this appears to be the case for most of Europe.

Stock levels in European markets are unsustainable, especially in the face of a U.S.-led recession. Should that emerge as the primary economic driver, the fall may be devastating.

On the other hand, European nations are hell-bent on continuing and even expanding the assault against Russia, calling for war-time spending via issuance of new debt in the trillions of euros. No doubt, a fresh infusion of cash and credit - or, at least the promise of such - will continue fueling an equity rally, but the logic behind further victimization of Russia, just as the Russians and Americans appear on the verge of a deal to partition Ukraine into smaller, more-readily digested territories, seems ill-conceived.

Perhaps the best analysis of the European condition is that their leaders, after persuing objectives laid out by the WEF and the "Great Reset" ideology for the past 15 years and now seeing them fail, are drowning in their own pools of tears. Unable to admit defeat, and, with the very real prospect of America pulling back its offensive and defensive postures, they have joined hands around a doomsday plot. Like the incursion by Ukrainian forces into Kursk, they seem to be willing to trade short term benefits for long term failure.

Such short-sighted leadership will almost certainly lead to devastating outcomes.

In light of the shuffling madness (hat tip to Ian Anderson and Jethro Tull) European investors and institutions are doing all they can to inspire confidence, buying stocks at higher and higher levels without regard to inflation, civil unrest and a generally unamused - and completely disregarded - public.

With European adventurism as a backdrop, there's no wonder gold is breaking to new records daily. From the ground level, faith and confidence in the entire European union project has been shattered. The pubic has grown weary of unelected Brussels and its dictates, longing for a return to peace and prosperity which the leadership is unable to provide. Decades of bad policies and worse decisions are soon to be coming back to haunt the continent and the British. Europe appears to be nothing less than a rudderless ship headed directly toward an iceberg while the captain and first mates are asleep in their cozy cabins.

Prospects for gold and a return to sound money may not have been this good since prior to World War I. For more than a century, central banks have ridden hard money into the ground but the game has changed. Politicians, being woefully behind the curve, are either unwilling or unable to accept the reality of new conditions. Instead they deny the truth and fight against the winds of change, like Don Quixote tilting at windmills.

The gold rally and its race to the ultimate end of being the source of all wealth and power are now unstoppable. The only question now is the timing of when fiat currencies reach their final destinations as worthless paper. It could be many more years or possibly soon. Whatever the case, gold will continue to march higher against all other currencies as the absolute store of value.

As the sun brightens over lower Manhattan this Tuesday morning, gold's shimmer is rivaling its celestial counterpart. Already today it is up another percentage point, arcing over $3.040 per ounce on the COMEX. Silver is following, at $34.55 and rising. Precious metals prices have been soaring in countries around the world. India is a prime example, with prices for gold and silver at record levels.

Stock futures are falling like dominoes. S&P Futures are down 18 points. Dow futures off 80, NASDAQ futures down 101 with the open approaching.

WTI Crude oil is up over $68/barrel, but still seems to be seeking a bottom. There are no good reasons for crude to rise and plenty of rationales for furhter declines or at least a range-bound regime short term.

At the Close, Monday, March 17, 2025:
Dow: 41,841.63, +353.44 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 17,808.66, +54.58 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 5,675.12, +36.18 (+0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 19,494.71, +263.36 (+1.37%)