Stock Futures Pointing Lower After Wednesday Snapback Rally; Oil Continues Slide; Recession Fears Growing.

Stocks staged an impressive rally Wednesday, bouncing back from two straight sessions to the downside to start the week. However, an hour prior to the opening bell Thursday, stock futures are sending ominous signals, with Dow futures down 450 points, NASDAQ futures off 350, and S&P futures off by 75 points.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest total for February since 2009. The firm, which produces monthly layoff figures every month just prior to the BLS' Non-farm Payroll announcement, saw nearly 62,000 layoffs or firings from government and another 32,000 at retail establishments. DOGE, the federal government's agency headed by Elon Musk tasked with elimination of waste, fraud, and abuse, is credited with the vast majority of the cuts.

Initial claims for unemployment fall in the most recent week, as reported Thursday morning, to 221,000, seasonally adjusted.

Wednesday's snapback rally may have been more of a buy-the-dip moment on what appeared to some to be oversold conditions. The general tone of the market seemed to point in the opposite direction, as stocks have struggled to hold gains since the start of the year, especially after President Trump's inauguration, January 20.

With the February NFP looking more and more like it may come in as a negative number on Friday, investors seem to be scurrying for cover. ADP's 77,000 job gains for the month were for private entities. Friday's NFP will include government layoffs and firings, which could be huge.

As the opening bell approaches, gold and silver have backed down a bit. Gold is trending around $2,910, while silver is holding steady above $32.50. WTI crude oil remains moribund, hitting a low of $65.37 Wednesday before bouncing back somewhat to just above $66/barrel.

Thursday's trade may be as volatile as the first two days of the week. There remains simply too much uncertainty for investors to make bold trades.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 5, 2024:
Dow: 43,006.59, +485.60 (+1.14%)
NASDAQ: 18,552.73, +267.57 (+1.46%)
S&P 500: 5,842.63, +64.48 (+1.12%)
NYSE Composite: 19,754.57, +259.02 (+1.33%)

Trump Tariffs Turn Markets Sideways and Lower; President Bashes Democrats in Joint Address; Oil Prices Crashing

President Trump put his promised tariffs in place on Tuesday, affecting Canada, Mexico, and China (20%, up from 10%) and chaos ensued.

Stocks initially sold off, then, as the day wore on and various reporting had Ukraine wanting to complete the mining deal that was scuttled on Friday and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick implying that Canada, Mexico, and Trump were willing to compromise on the 25% tariffs and reciprocation. Stocks headed to the upside.

In the final half hour, there was simply too great a supply of sellers. The NASDAQ sold off violently along with the S&P and the Dow. The experience was surreal and third-worldly. Between Trump, news leaks, and the algorithms that make 80-90% of Wall Street's trades, there was little certainty about anything.

The NASDAQ briefly entered correction ground, down more than 10% from highs made in November, 2024. From the lows to the highs, NASDAQ traversed 600 points through the day and, along with the S&P, has finished in the red seven of the last nine sessions, the Dow, five of the last eight.

Gains for the year have vanished, with the Dow holding up the best, down just 0.05%, while the S&P is off 1.76%, and the NASDAQ, 5.31%.

Banks and financials, particularly the largest ones - Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Citigroup (C) - were hardest hit, falling between four and six percent by the close. Even credit card issuers Discover (DFS) and Capital One (COF) were down 6.01% and 5.75% respectively, the pair in the midst of a $45 merger that's been approved by shareholders, though approval from the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency have yet to be issued.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average is already in correction, down more than 12% from November highs and is trading below its 200-day moving average. Tariffs, especially those concerning the countries of North America, would likely prove to be damaging to many in the transportation sector.

Tuesday night, President Trump took a victory lap in a nationally-televised address to a joint session of congress where he enumerated his administration's accomplishments, acknowledged the work of his newly-appointed cabinet and singled out select Americans as prime exemplars of his self-defined "Golden Age." Pointing out how the Democrats continue to oppose him and show zero support for the changes he is making was a nice touch. He also made clear that Joe Biden was the worst-ever American President.

Notably, the President did not mention any backing off on the tariffs, but actually pointed out more severe penalties toward other countries would be put into effect on April 2nd. He mentioned a note from Ukraine's President Zelensky indicating that the mining deal may be back on the table, though it was still uncertain and unsigned.

Private employers added 77,000 jobs in February according to ADP's monthly private sector jobs report, released Wednesday morning. According to their survey, hiring slowed to the smallest level of gains since July, 2024, with trade and transportation, health care and education, and information showing job losses. Small business employment also fell.

Since the ADP figures do not include government, with DOGE job eliminations running somewhere in the neighborhood of 70-120,000, not including the 75,000 who accepted buyouts and will be paid through September, Friday's Non-Farm payroll data from the BLS could very easily be a negative number and certainly not the last. That may cast a further pallor over the stock market and have other diverse effects on the economy. It's a wait-and-see scenario now on Wall Street.

Crude oil continued to price lower. WTI crude dropped to $67.81 by the close Tuesday the lowest level since the decline began more than six weeks ago (January 15, $78.71). It's down further Wednesday morning, to around $66.72.

Briefly, Ross Stores (ROST) forecast annual sales and profit below estimates on weaker demand in their fourth quarter release after the close Tuesday. Nordstrom posted better-than-expected earnings ahead of going private. Shares are modestly higher pre-market. Foot Locker (FL) is trading two percent higher after beating on EPS but missing on the revenue side. Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) is trading 9-10% lower after issuing weak guidance Wednesday morning.

Futures are close to flat-lining a half hour until the open. Gold is holding up at around $2,910 and silver pricing at $32.38 before the bell.

Still a lot of uncertainty to go around and stock markets generally don't like being in the dark.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 4, 2025:
Dow: 42,520.99, -670.25 (-1.55%)
NASDAQ: 18,285.16, -65.03 (-0.35%)
S&P 500: 5,778.15, -71.57 (-1.22%)
NYSE Composite: 19,495.55, -327.93 (-1.65%)

Stocks Slide Helped Along by Trump Tariff Narrative; Gold, Silver Rebounding; Oil Continues Lower

The week began on a very sour note as the major indices suffered another in a series of severe selloffs, this one resulting in the worst one-day drop for the S&P 500 so far in 2025.

The NASDAQ has ended lower six of the last eight sessions and close Monday right at its 200-day moving average thanks to a 120-point boost in the final 15 minutes of trading. On a year-to-date measure, only the Dow is positive for the year, clinging to gains of about 1.5%. The NASDAQ will likely test correction territory some time today. A 10 percent decline from its December 16 high (20,173.89) is 18,156.10.

For those still faithful to Dow Theory, the Dow Jones Transportation Average is already down 11.56% from its November high. The Industrials would have to hit a number below 40,512.64 in order to confirm a change in the primary trend, in this case, from bull to bear. That's still more than 2,500 points lower from Monday's close. 45,014.04 was the closing high on December 4 for the Industrial Average.

The damage to stocks has become palpable and undeniable. Conveniently, the pumpers, cheerleaders, and mainstream media pundits will be able to place blame for all of the stock market and the economy's woes squarely on President Trump and his newly-enacted policies, most prominent the efforts of Elon Musk's DOGE team to downsize the federal government and Trump's tariffs, which are being imposed as of Tuesday, today.

Trump's 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are going into effect today. Duties on Chinese goods have been doubled, from 10% to 20%. In retaliatory fashion, China will impose additional 10%-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports next week, and expanded export controls on U.S. companies. Canada has responded with immediate 25% tariffs on U.S. imports worth more than $20 billion, and will expand that to imports worth over $86 billion if Trump's tariffs remain in effect for 21 days. Mexico is also expected to announce retaliatory tariffs later today.

Making Trump the scape-goat for the bubble in stocks that had to be popped at some point provides an easy way out for Wall Street minions who have been keeping their fingers down on the BUY button since November, 2023, and, obviously, before that. Many stocks in the S&P 500 and the broader NASDAQ have been losing ground with revenue and profits below year prior levels while their share prices have gone up. Brokers and money managers, who have piled client money into passive, overpriced investments can, and will, blame tariffs and Trump.

Unemployment will be blamed on Trump and Musk, when the fact of the matter remains that the federal (and many state and local) government has been overloaded with loafers and make-work flunkies, many of whom have not had to report into their offices since the pandemic in 2020. While Trump and Musk do what's needed to restore sanity and economy to government spending, the mainstream media will vilify them both as nasty and uncaring.

The same goes for the general economy, which is expected to fall into recession this quarter if it hasn't been in one already. It will all be Trump's fault. Count on it.

Meanwhile, gold and silver have rebounded from last week's trouncing, with gold, which was as low as $2,845, and silver, which fell to $31.21, on Friday, have bounced back to $2,932 and $32.21 as of Tuesday morning.

There still seems to be no hope for WTI crude and the oil market in general. OPEC is lifting production quotas despite the obvious glut in the market. WTI fell to a low of $67.10 this morning. It's already in a bear market.

Stock futures are down across the board as the opening bell approaches. Dow: -110; NASDAQ: -85; S&P: -18.

Should be quite the show today and through Friday when the BLS announces February Non-farm payrolls.

At the Close, Monday, March 3, 2025:
Dow: 43,191.24, -649.67 (-1.48%)
NASDAQ: 18,350.19, -497.09 (-2.64%)
S&P 500: 5,849.72, -104.78 (-1.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,823.48, -204.71 (-1.02%)

WEEKEND WRAP: World Has Pretty Much Gone Mad; Recession Indicators Increasing; Gold:Silver Ratio above 91; Oil Down Six Straight Weeks

Last Sunday's Weekend Wrap floated the idea that uncertainty reigned over the stock market (and world markets) and opinions ranged from dire predictions of economic collapse to rosy projections for continued gains.

A week and a few earnings reports, reactions, and economic numbers later, there appears to be at least a little more clarity. Though there's far from consensus, the indications are for a slowing U.S. and global economy over the upcoming six to 18 months.

Nvidia's earnings report and forward projections, although positive, failed to satisfy the hunger of analysts who are eyeing what they believe may be a peak in AI-related infrastructure spending. While there will continue to be sufficient demand for Nvidia's chipsets and related gear, it's not growing at a fast-enough pace to justify the sky-high price of the company's shares. Thus, the morning after Nvidia's fourth quarter and full year release, the sell buttons got pushed, hard, sending shares down eight percent on Thursday with a knee-jerk buy-the-dip reaction Friday, along with the rest of the battered and beaten NASDAQ.

On Thursday, the second estimate of 2024 4th quarter GDP was released, revealing the economy grew at 2.3%, in line with expectations and revised slightly higher (less than 0.1%) than the first estimate. With inflation still running at 2.5% or better, this is not an inspiring number. Further, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker was stunningly revised from 2.3% to -1.5%. The researchers cited the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth falling from -0.41 percentage points to -3.70 percentage points while the nowcast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 2.3 percent to 1.3 percent.

Though the Atlanta Fed's projections are sometimes off the mark, they are usually close to reality and remain closely-watched indicators. If the 1st quarter comes in at a negative number, as they are forecasting, that would signal a recession, at least the beginning of one. Some commentators believe the U.S. entered a recession in 2024, some say it's even worse, in the belief that economic data was widely skewed to the positive for political reasons throughout 2024. Adding to the argument that the economy is being squeezed is the housing correction and mini-recession underway in the Washington D.C. metro area, thanks to Elon Musk's DOGE and President Trump's commitment to eliminate fraud, waste, and abuse in the federal government. Eliminating half a million to one million government jobs and possibly just as many in government contractors is bound to have a chilling effect on the entire area and spread to other parts of the country as a domino effect.

Alongside the layoffs and firings at the federal level, the Trump administration's efforts to identify and deport illegal aliens will also contribute to a slowdown in consumer spending. A country can't simply lose a couple million people without it having some negative effect, and that condition is more or less nationwide, though the hardest hit will be border states like Texas, Arizona, Florida, California, and New Mexico.

It won't end there however. Over the past four years, illegals have poured into states that either identify as "sanctuaries" or have Democrat or liberal Republican governors, or both. New York, Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, and others harbor high numbers of illegals. The process of rounding up and removing illegals is an ongoing effort that will take years and result in a drop in population overall, but, eventually will be a net positive. Before that, though, there will be a good deal of pain spread around.

The January PCE index released on Friday was positive in terms of inflation, though the argument has already shifted from fighting inflation to fighting dis-inflation or deflation in terms of the economy contracting. The Fed's two-plus years of diddling around the edges while inflation roared to as high as nine percent have had some effect, but other factors, especially unemployment and lower fuel prices, will make inflation disappear at a much faster pace than any Fed rate hikes could possibly hope to achieve. The Fed won't have to raise rates, as some fear they might. Instead, worry should be over whether the Fed will embark upon rate cuts as the economy stumbles into recession.

January durable goods orders minus transportation (mostly Boeing) were flat and up just 1.6% on an annualized basis. Consumer confidence, per the Conference Board, fell sharply in the latest survey.

Among the more useful indicators could be the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which was down seven consecutive sessions until Friday's 223-point gain left it just below its 200-day moving average. At week's end, the Transports were up 0.57 year-to-date, the Dow up 3.05%, S&P up 1.24%, and the NASDAQ down 2.40%.

Real economic conditions are beginning to come into better focus.

Stocks

The NASDAQ got buried this past week, down 3.47%, despite the reaction rally on Friday. The Dow and NYSE Composite were winners, the S&P lost just less than one percent, but there was structural damage with intraday lows at the worst levels in six weeks on the Dow and S&P. The NASDAQ barely escaped falling into correction, the lows at levels not seen since mid-November (3 1/2 months) and the index sitting just above its 200-day moving average.

Stock investors are worried about tariffs and the effects of government downsizing and deportations. Short term, none of these are positive for the general economy. Consumer credit is also a worry not being given enough attention. Consumer spending leveled off during the holidays and hasn't shown any potential for recovery. Housing is overdue for a correction and the recession that was politically forbidden under the Biden administration will bloom fully under no-nonsense Trump.

Tech stocks are exhibiting weakness and capital flight. Advisors are recommending energy, utilities, and various other safety plays. Conditions, which have been changing day-to-day, are causing severe choppiness, but a gradual tendency to the downside overall. The weeks ahead will be dominated by questions of how long and how deep the recession will be, once it arrives (it may already have begun). With the White House dominating the media, those voices cryng for Fed rate cuts are being drowned out. The word "stimulus" may become more commonplace, but the general attitude from the Trump administration is that everybody will share the pain and bailouts are not a solution.

Full year and fourth quarter earnings reports are slowing to a trickle, but some big retailers announce this week:

Monday: (before open) Sunnova (NOVA), TG Theraputics (TGTX); (after close) Emergent Biosolutions (EBS), Nuscale (SMR), GitLab (GTLB)

Tuesday: (before open) AutoZone (AZO), Target (TGT), Best Buy (BBY); (after close) Ross Stores (ROST), Nordstrom (JWN), Crowdstrike (CRWD)

Wednesday: (before open) FootLocker (FL), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF; (after close) Lending Tree (TREE), Victoria's Secret (VSCO)

Thursday: (before open) JD.com (JD), Kroger (KR), BJ's Wholesale (BJ), Cracker Barrel (CBRL), Burlington (BURL); (after close) Gap Inc (GAP), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Costco (COST), Broadcom (AVGO)

Friday: (before open) Algonquin (AQN), Genesco (GCO), .

The week ahead begins with ISM purchasing Managers Report on Monday and ends with Friday's February Non-farm payroll data. There's some chance that the NFP number will be a negative one with most estimates figuring a slowdown from January's 143,000 to possibly a range of 50-75,000. In between, ADP will set out February private payroll data on Wednesday with possible hints toward the "official" BLS figure and Challenger, Gray, and Christmas puts out its February hiring data.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/24/2025	4.45	N/A	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	N/A	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51

The 6-week bill has been added to the treasury stack this week. There's not much difference in yield between it and 1-and-2-month bills, so no surprise there. Yields on everything after the 4-month bill fell this week as money managers fled to the safety of fixed income.

The biggest moves were at the furthest out, as the yield on the 30-year fell 16 basis points to 4.51%. The 10-year dropped even more, 18 basis points, to a low of 4.24, the lowest since December, but hardly significant. The two-year dropped below 4.00% for the first time since October though the entire structure remains historically flat, suggesting stagnating conditions, also not surprising.

The spread on 2s-10s was slightly elevated by two basis points to +25. Full Spectrum returned was flattened from +31 to +13, narrowest since the dis-inversion mid-December.

When borrowing costs at any duration is one to two percent above the inflation rate, something's got to give and it's probably going to be manifested in lower rates across the board as inflation becomes dis-inflation and probably deflation. Money is about to get tight.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, and finally, down to $69.95 at the New York close this Friday. Six consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 10 percent should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon. But, there are stil bulls in the oil patch.

WTI bottomed out at $68.48 on Wednesday and made a mini-comeback late in the week. It may have a further rebound in the weeks ahead, but they will be temporary only as the price of energy meets "drill, baby, drill", oversupply and slack to falling demand.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump has begun falling at a faster pace, manifesting the lag time between the oil price and that of refined product. This week it's down to $3.06, from $3.13 a gallon last Sunday morning. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling for the next four to six weeks, longer if oil prices continue to slide, which they should.

California remains on top, though down a nickel from last week, at $4.75.

Pennsylvania fell four cents, to $3.31, the Keystone State remaining the longtime price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second at $3.13, followed closely by Vermont, $3.14. Connecticut ($3.06) and Massachusetts ($2.99) saw small price drops. Maryland is back down to $2.97. New Jersey is at $3.01.

Illinois was down five cents, to $3.18. Ohio ($2.76) and Indiana ($2.83) were down the most in the Midwest over the past two weeks.

Texas ($2.59) overtook Mississippi ($2.62) as the lowest in the country, just slightly better than Oklahoma ($2.63) this week. Louisiana is at $2.66; South Carolina, $2.68, followed by Kentucky ($2.70), Arkansas ($2.72), and Alabama ($2.73) Tennessee ($2.74), and North Carolina ($2.75). Georgia ($2.92) and Florida ($3.06) completes the low-cost SouthEast region. Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Iowa range from $2.80 to $2.88.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in three more states than last week. At least 29 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.

The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.40) was off just a penny. Oregon dropped a mere one cent, at $3.73, while Nevada dropped five, down to $3.77. Washington was stable at $4.12, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.00) was down, and Idaho ($3.13) fell five cents.

Bitcoin

This week: $94,335.26
Last week: $95,900.56
2 weeks ago: $97,022.45
6 months ago: $59,123.20
One year ago: $63,043.77
Five years ago: $8,902.84

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4 and this week got taken to the cleaners, dropping below $80,000 for the first time since early November. However, Sunday morning, out of the blue, the crypto-clip joint saw to it that the price would rise nearly $10,000 in less than three hours. If you bought bitcoin at 5 or 6:00 am ET at $85,500 or $86,000, gold mine! Instant profit, all because the President spoke glowingly about crypto on Truth Social and announced a Crypto Summit at the White House, scheduled for Friday, March 7.

Will it last? Probably not, unless BlackRock wants it to stay up there or go higher. Such a clown show, which is why all talk about a bitcoin strategic reserve should be disregarded as fluff. With price fluctuations like these, bitcoin can never be a reliable store of wealth unless the human race intakes copious amounts of stupid injections. Maybe they already have.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 91.23; last week: 89.84

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30

Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43

Gold and silver took some corrective medicine, if only because they had been out-performing stocks (and still are). Even after last week's blood-letting, gold is up 8.57%, silver ahead 7.49% year-to-date.

As performance metrics go, it's probably going to get better for precious metals as compared to stocks. Everything may go down, but PMs will go down less. This could be an opportune time to nibble a little. Prices may go back up just as easily as they could decline. However, those who think gold is a bargain under $2,900, might want to check out the gold:silver ratio of 91.23. Don't just sit there, buy more silver!

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	34.56	49.00	41.17	40.14
1 oz silver bar:	37.50	49.00	41.86	40.44
1 oz gold coin:	2,912.54	3,099.40	3,017.20	3,034.81
1 oz gold bar:	2,900.00	3,034.40	2,993.59	2,997.82

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was relatively stable over the course of the week, posting $40.90 on Sunday morning, a drop of 14 cents from the February 23 price of $41.04 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

After the White House spat with the little dictator (Zelenskyy) on Friday, DOGE continuing to slash and burn, the House putting up a bloated budget outline, first quarter GDP estimates signaling recession, and stocks taking some big dives, has the White House shown any fiscal discipline? Not yet.

Waiting an hoping is not a strategy. Trump is walking a tightrope.

At the Close, Friday, February 21, 2025:
Dow: 43,840.91, +601.41 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ: 18,847.28, +302.86 (+1.63%)
S&P 500: 5,954.50, +92.93 (+1.59%)
NYSE Composite: 20,028.19, +220.04 (+1.11%)

For the Week:
Dow: +412.89 (+0.95%)
NASDAQ: -676.73 (-3.47%)
S&P 500: -58.63 (-0.98%)
NYSE Composite: +146.65 (+0.74%)
Dow Transports: -47.87 (-0.30%)

Fed Fave PCE Index Shows Janaury Drop, Inflation Controlled; Deflation Becoming More of a Worry; Nvidia Sparks Market Sell Off

Splat!

That's the sound of Nvidia falling off its high valuation. Despite reporting strong fourth quarter and full year revenues and profits - the kind over which most companies would be thrilled - Wall Street wasn't all that impressed on Thursday, sending shares of the chip-maker spiraling lower by 8.48% by the closing, dragging the rest of the NASDAQ to its fourth shockingly-large loss so far this year.

First there was the warning shot January 27, as NASDAQ shed 613 points, followed by the 438-point blood-letting last Friday. This week has been more of the nightmarish, monster-in-the-closet kind with a 238-point drop on Monday, another loss of 260 Tuesday and Thursday's 530-point liquidation. There appears to be more to come as investors scramble to find safe havens, of which there are few.

Simply put, Nvidia was, and still is, overvalued. Fourth quarter earnings of 0.89 per share beat estimates and were well ahead of year-ago EPS of 0.52. The problem is, with trailing earnings for the last four quarters of 0.61, 0.68, 0.81, and the most recent, 0.89, full-year EPS is 2.99, and with the stock trading even at the lowered price of 120 after Thursday's rout, the price:earnings ratio is still rich at 40.13.

Sure, earnings are growing, but analysts see a slowdown coming as spending on AI has likely already peaked and Nvidia, being the main beneficiary of big tech AI mania, is not likely to be able to maintain margins over the next year, to say nothing of the following three, five, or ten.

Two years ago, Nvidia stock could be bought for less than $25 per share. Peaking at $147 in November, that constituted a two-year, six-bagger, which, in anybody's portfolio, is damn good. It seems the days of stocks just rising no matter the current economic conditions are pretty much over. Buying the dip has gone out of fashion. Investors are looking now more for protection rather than profits and stocks like Nvidia and some in the high-flying tech sector are feeling some pain.

Just in the past month, Microsoft (MSFT) is down nearly 10%, Taiwan Semiconductor, -5.83%, Alphabet (GOOG), -12.13%. Say what you like about Elon Musk, but his car company, Tesla (TSLA) is down nearly 30% in the past 30 days.

The slowdown is here and it seems to be accelerating. Selloffs have a way of snowballing, as more investors get scared off what they thought were safe plays, money-makers, and leveraged speculation, and head for the hills. Judging by recent activity and current economic data, this seems to be only the beginning of a deeper drop, all of which will be blamed on President Trump and his damned tariffs (which, BTW, haven't even been imposed yet) and Elon Musk's DOGE downsizing, which continues to gain momentum.

While the S&P peaked just days ago, the Dow's last all-time high was December 4 (45,014.04), and the NASDAQ's December 16 (20,173.89). The NASDAQ is approaching correction territory and could hit the magic number (18,156.10) of a 10% drop as early as Friday, um, today.

There just doesn't seem to be much in the way of risk appetite presently.

On a weekly basis, it's looking pretty sorry, though not necessarily dire. Through Thursday's close the Dow has been resilient, down just 188 points. Ny comparison, the S&P is worse off, with a loss of 151 points (2.5%), The NASDAQ has been knocked for a loop, down 979 points, or a cool five percent.

Overnight, Bitcoin's descent continued, with the vapor-coin's value dropping below $80,000. Bitcoin bought near the peak over $100,000 recently - when all the crypto world was calling for Bitcoin $200,000 or higher - has lost at least 20% since February 4, the last time it surpassed the thousand-century mark.

While financial media will be making commentary about inflation and the "Fed's favorite inflation gauge" the PCE index Friday morning, nobody really cares at this point. Despite inflation registers like PCE, CPI, and PPI have been trending higher for the past few months, the scare is in the opposite direction. It's hard to have inflation when people are losing jobs and the business cycle is turning over, a recession looming quite large.

When the January PCE Index was released an hour prior to the opening bell showing January personal income up 0.9%, but spending down 0.2%, Fed officials breathed a sign of relief, patting themselves on the back for having finally rung inflation out of the system and keeping themselves from becoming completely irrelevant.

On an annualized basis, the PCE price index for January increased 2.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.6 percent from one year ago.

Of course, the Fed had little to nothing to do with the new measurements. Rather, the new sheriff in town, President Trump, managed to make so many people so uncomfortable that they refused to spend, despite having more money.

Stock futures failed to exhibit the euphoric leaps higher such an announcement would have produced months ago. The major concerns today are not inflation and rising prices, but dis-inflation, deflation and recession. In that context, market players shouldn't be at all pleased and stock futures reflected the prevailing "yeah, but" attitude.

Truth of the matter is that the Fed is irrelevant. Moving short term overnight rates a quarter of a point every few months does little if anything to move the inflation/deflation needle in either direction. The focus of Trump and Treasury Secretary Bessent is on the 10-year note, the benchmark treasury upon which most financial decisions are made. On that front, the administration is doing the job the Fed cannot. Since Inauguration Day, January 20, the dollar has been strong, sending demand for the 10-year note soaring, with yield dropping from around 4.60% to around 4.25%. That, for now, is a fair comfort zone.

With the PCE Index data a lagging indicator, deflationary pressure is probably degrees greater than what the market is perceiving. Gas prices are coming down and food prices are at best stable. Anecdotal evidence suggests consumers balking at higher prices and retailers dealing with oversupply, forced to liquidate some items at lower levels.

It's looking a lot like 2022.

At the Close, Thursday, February 27, 2025:
Dow: 43,239.50, -193.62 (-0.45%)
NASDAQ: 18,544.42, -530.85 (-2.78%)
S&P 500: 5,861.57, -94.49 (-1.59%)
NYSE Composite: 19,808.15, -124.70 (-0.63%)

Welcome to Bubble-land; Nvidia Results Confirm Extended AI Spending; Unemployment Up, Bitcoin, Gold Down

It's Official!

The Stock Market bubble will not be derailed by President Trump, DOGE cost-cutting, Pam Bondi's Release of the notorious Epstein Files, or even rising jobless claims. It's unstoppable. Prepare for all-time highs on the NASDAQ and S&P within days or weeks.

Nvidia (NVDA), the maker of ultra-fast processing chips needed to fuel the AI craze, reported fourth quarter results that were blowout positive. The company announced revenue in the quarter rose 78%, and full fiscal-year revenue for Nvidia rose 114% to $130.5 billion.

As far as guidance, Nvidia said it expected about $43 billion in first-quarter revenue, slightly higher than estimates, which help push the stock two percent higher in pre-market trading.

Elsewhere, Salesforce.com (CRM) continued its unprecedented streak of underperformance, missing on the revenue side and issuing disappointing guidance. Shares are down 2 1/2 to three percent prior to the open. Never daunted, traders pushed this nonsense company and its p/e ratio of 48 to a high of 361 in early December. As of Wednesday's close, CRM was trading at 307.33 and is expected to fall further, proof once again that it's never a good idea to buy high and sell low.

As the bubble proceeds - the current Shiller PE Ratio of 37.55 is down slightly, but still in range of the most recent bubble high of 38.58 from 2020.

Unemployment claims were released this morning as usual, with the number of initial claims coming in at 242,000, the highest since last October. Incidentally, jobless claims in the D.C. metro area surged past 2,000 in the latest reporting week, up from around 600 at the start of the year. DOGE seems to be working at eliminating slackers and no-shows from the federal workforce.

Bitcoin dropped to a low of $83,576 overnight, the lowest the granddaddy of crypto coins has been since November 11. Since completely fake money can't seem to find a bottom, traders on the COMEX seem to believe that other forms of money, such as gold, should not be priced as high as they have been recently.

Thursday morning saw gold dip back below $2,900. Silver seems to be holding its own for a change, down slightly, just above $32/ounce.

Oddly enough, amid the euphoria, stock futures took a dive just before 9:00 am ET.

Not to worry, however, as fake money, artificial intelligence (AI), and not working from home appear to be winning strategies.

At the Close, Wednesday, February 26, 2025:
Dow: 43,433.12, -188.04 (-0.43%)
NASDAQ: 19,075.26, +48.88 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 5,956.06, +0.81 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 19,932.85, +8.80 (+0.04%)

As Trump, Musk, Bondi, Patel, et. al. Clean Up Washington, Recession Is a Likely Outcome; Wall Street Ramains Optimistic

Elon Musk, via DOGE, recently sent an email to about two million federal employees, asking them to essentially make a list of five bullet points on what they accomplished at work last week, so I thought I'd take a stab at it. Bear in mind, I am not a gevernemnt employee. I run my own operation, ergo, I don't have a boss.

Here goes:

• Wrote five articles and posted them to Money Daily
• Wrote five college basketball "Player of the Day" articles, uploaded pics of the players, posted to idleguy.com.
• Prepared five daily quizzes for the Daily Idler at idleguy.com and posted them.
• Worked on various pages for upcoming March issue of idleguy.com
• Continued to build out online store at Downtown Magazine. Added 20-30 pages. Posted a number of magazines for sale.
• Researched how to build "ladder" navigation bar, implemented it in store.

Oops, that's six.

Ok, it took me about 2 1/2 minutes for those six, and, if you've ever run your own business, you can understand that I could have kept going. I did a lot more than just those six things, which, actually, are about 30 or 40 things.

The point of Musk's email was probably not to see what everybody was doing all week but to see how many did not respond. He suspects many government "jobholders" are fake, the workers non-existent, and the money being paid to whomever constitutes fraud. He's probably right, though just how right is a scary prospect. The number of no-show jobs could be hundreds of thousands, though I suspect it will amount to maybe 70-150,000 total. At least I hope it's a small number because the stories coming out of DOGE and D.C. have been fairly disturbing, in a manner that leads people to believe their tax dollars - in addition to all the money the government borrows - is being wasted in a very large way.

My point is different. It is about work ethic and accountability. Federal workers need a boss or manager to tell them what to do, how to do it, when to do it, etc. In my situation, I have built accountability into my "job." If I don't write my three daily pieces, nobody else will and my readers will notice. I will lose readers and money. Same goes for the monthly idleguy.com commitment and building out the online store (long overdue, sorry).

Perhaps government work should be restructured. Instead of unions negotiating automatic annual pay raises and congress rubber-stamping them, government jobs should come with incentives and penalties. Do good, high quality work, get a bonus. Slack off, no raise, probation, possible firing, for the most egregious, loss of pension. Reform of the federal government is long overdue. President Trump received a mandate (twice now) to fix the broken system in Washington and beyond. Having the world's richest man overseeing efforts that will root out the waste, fraud, and abuse is a godsend.

Complain all you like about Elon Musk, but he's not getting paid to do this. Besides, were he on the payroll, what would his salary be? $150,000 a year. $250,000? A couple of million? Any amount would likely be a bargain, but Musk, not needing the money, does it for free because he knows it is the right thing to do and he knows how to do it. Americans are fortunate to have a two verified genius businessmen working for their benefit. The complainers are people who don't see the problem with $36 trillion of debt, workers who aren't required to even show up, and members of congress who win elections as middle class and emerge after a few years as multi-millionaires. Those who complain are the status quo who have been getting their palms greased for years, even decades. They're the problem, not President Trump or Elon Musk or J.D. Vance, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., Kash Patel, Scott Bessent, or Pam Bondi.

Trump was sent by the people to fix the system and he's assembled a team to do just that. The problem, when all is said and done, is that unemployment in the D.C. metro area is going to skyrocket, money previously going to workers, contractors, anybody with a hand out, is going to dry up and it will snowball from there. Fewer dollars circulating though the economy - a lot fewer - will likely precipitate a recession. How mild or severe it becomes depends on how deep is the rot in D.C. and how deeply Trump, Musk, et. al. carve it up. One might suspect that cuts to the general grifting system will be quite severe.

And that's why Wall Street is nervous. An economy slowly grinding down before it is rebuilt isn't exactly a blueprint for profits. People will limited means tend to spend less. Unemployed people spend even less and the U.S. economy is dependent on people not just spending, but spending more every month, every quarter, every year. With hundreds of thousands of government workers out of a job and possibly millions of illegal aliens sent packing, tons of money that was being spent isn't going to be any more. It's coming. Count on it. The bright side is that once all the rot is ripped out, loafers fired, endless regulations rolled back, Americans can actually start doing what they do best, innovating and creating new businesses to take advantage of new opportunity. America is not known as "land of opportunity" for nothing. It's everywhere, and with government and hordes of slack-jawed rule-writers out of the way, it will be widely available.

Bottom line, there is likely to be a recession and it is likely to be deep but probably not long. It has probably already begun and will last maybe through the end of this year or into the first half of next year. That's when the fun begins. Prosperity, jobs, innovation, opportunity. It's all there.

Meanwhile, Wall Street remains spooked because they're focused on the here and now, on the immediacy of profits, and stocks are obviously a little pricey. There seems to be only one way stocks can go now unless Wall Street's biggest players want to extend and pretend until nobody can deny the economic condition. If so, the rush for the exits will be a stampede, a crash. It's probably better that Wall Street continues to be in denial and the decline is slow and gradual. As the case may be a 30-40% correction isn't going to happen overnight. Give it six months to a year. Then buy back in. What do you think Warren Buffett is going to do with his $350 billion war chest? For now, he's waiting, but, rest assured, the old man knows his stuff and he'll be buying at or near the bottom.

So far this week, markets have been a bit messy, but help is on the way. Lowe's (LOW) and AB InBev (BUD) reported before the open and both stocks are sporting 4-5% gains pre-market. Advance Auto Parts (AAP) reported earnings that beat consensus but issued iffy guidance, sending shares marginally lower.

Elsewhere, Instacart (CART), reporting after Tuesday's closing bell, missed fourth quarter estimates and offered downbeat guidance for the first quarter. Shares are trending down about 10%. Intuit (INTU) topped expectations, returning $3.32 per share. The stock price is rising pre-market, up eight percent. First Solar (FSLR) announced fourth quarter earnings of $3.65, short of estimates, but the stock is trading four to five percent higher.

After the bell, Nvidia (NVDA) and Dow Component SalesForce (CRM) report, so Wednesday looks to have great expectations.

WTI crude got hammered lower on Tuesday, dropping as low as $68.75, with more room to fall. Back in September, it bottomed at $65.75, and, even though that may have been politically-motivated, all indications point to lower oil prices ahead.

Bitcoin plunged to a low of $86,468 on Tuesday, recovered a bit overnight but is falling again this morning ($87,338.03)

Gold lost ground on Tuesday, currently around $2,925, with silver just above $32. Stock futures, expectedly, are soaring.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 25, 2025:
Dow: 43,621.16, +159.95 (+0.37%)
NASDAQ: 19,026.39, -260.54 (-1.35%)
S&P 500: 5,955.25, -28.00 (-0.47%)
NYSE Composite: 19,924.05, +64.85 (+0.33%)

Everything Is Up in the Air; Bitcoin, Crypto (Vaporware) Plunging; Diversifying Asset Classes May Make Sense for Most

OK, markets have entered the phase of denial called "fake it 'til you make it." In other words, nobody has a single clue about the future of stocks, bonds, commodities, currency, nations, anything.

Anybody who purports to "knowing" what's ahead is either a reincarnation of Nostradamus or is smoking some powerful weed and isn't sharing it with anybody (bogarting).

Nothing in the current climate is quantifiable. Maybe some company dividends will still be delivered on their quarterly schedules, but stock prices - having been bid into the stratosphere over years of neglect and misappropriation - may wipe out any profits one may have from those same dividends. Maybe not. Stocks could go parabolic and too the moon or beyond.

Honestly, at this point, nobody knows. Everybody's guessing.

One thing that seems likely is the absolute chance at a major pullback or correction in stocks if only because the market dislikes uncertainty, and uncertainty is all that there is currently.

Diversifying into assets other than stocks and fixed income may be sensible, lest we are reminded again that the most prolific and successful investor of our age, Warren Buffett, is sitting on some $350 billion in cash. He's obviously waiting for chips to fall so he can pick them up on the cheap.

Real estate, precious metals, energy, transportation would provide a good mix, but there's no guarantee any of them may appreciate or even hold their value except maybe gold and silver, their gains simply a symptom of crumbling currency value.

The publication, Fast Company, posted the musical question this morning, "Crypto crash: Why are Bitcoin, XRP, DOGE, and TRUMP prices plunging today?"

Answering their own question with two possible reasons (poor form, chaps) the magazine's response was, "Concerns over tariffs and the recent breach of a crypto exchange may be fueling a decline not seen since President Trump's election victory in November."

Sure, tariffs, like that would affect bitcoin. A recent crypto breach may be closer to the correct answer.

How about this: They're all fake, worthless slush funds for criminals and government officials (same thing) hiding ill-gotten loot. Bitcoin, Trump-coin, Doge, etc. are simply vaporware. Anybody putting actual money into these fictions other than for a quick profit on speculation is an idiot. Plain and simple. None of these crypto-currencies (a rather loosely-used term) are worth anything. Nada. Nothing. And the market is beginning to reflect that reality. All of Bitcoin could vanish in a millisecond. Same with the other alt-coins, fraud-coins, stable-coins. Seriously, they have no value whatsoever.

Bitcoin plunged below $90,000 this morning. In case anybody thinks that's a big deal, stick around for the dive below $80,000 and deeper.

With the opening bell a half hour away, stock futures are up. Dow futures are +110; S&P futures +2; NASDAQ futures (oops) -9.

Monday ended badly, so today, best wishes.

At the Close, Monday, February 24, 2025:
Dow: 43,461.21, +33.19 (+0.08%)
NASDAQ: 19,286.93, -237.08 (-1.21%)
S&P 500: 5,983.25, -29.88 (-0.50%)
NYSE Composite: 19,859.20, -22.33 (-0.11%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Stocks Wrecked in Friday Bloodbath; Gold, Silver Each Up More than 10% Already in 2025; End of the Fed Coming Soon

Commentary will be limited in this week's WRAP as conditions are changing by the day.

Just for openers, WTI crude oil feel for a fifth straight week. Gold finished higher an eighth straight week. Stocks got a serious reality check on Friday, leaving the three major indices - Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500 - clinging to gains of one to two percent. If it wasn't for a severe downdraft the final four trading sessions of 2024 (December 26, 27, 30, 31), all but the Dow would be down for the year. As it is, they’re each well off recent highs.

Stocks

Friday was a train wreck, sending all the indices into the red for the week. Charts are eerily reminiscent of either 2020 or 2022. With Friday's report of a new deadly virus discovered in China, some are betting on 2020, though for the intellectual class of covid/shutdowns/vaccine-deniers, the message delivered after the close of European markets Friday by the dubious Daily Mail, citing the Wuhan Institute of Virology as its source, amounts to nothing more than EU-inspired fake news, promulgated in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to impose peace upon Ukraine, thus flushing the EU's plan to permanently enslave their populations down a proverbial toilet.

NASDAQ's 438-point drop wasn't even as deep as the January 27 613-point wreck, so, nothing new here, just another in a series of dumps, which have been frequent since (ah-ha!) Trump's election. There's probably more pain to come. The recent patterns suggest distribution (pump-and-dump). Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on $334 billion in cash, and that's after the firm paid $27 billion in taxes. Democrats may lament billionaires, but Berkshire is certainly paying its "fair share."

Things are getting hairy and scary. The U.S. is attacking drug cartels in Mexico, Musk continues to slash and burn via DOGE, Pope Francis is in critical condition, Trump fired the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General Charles Q. Brown Jr. (ha, take that, Charlie Brown), Kash Patel was confirmed as Director of the FBI on Friday, and there's a critical election in Germany TODAY.

Upcoming full year and fourth quarter earnings reports:

Monday: (before open): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), Owens Corning (OC), Domino's Pizza (DPZ); (after close) Cliffs (CLF), Chegg (CHGG), hims | hers (HIMS)

Tuesday: (before open) Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Home Depot (HD), Krispy Kreme (DNUT); (after close) Instacart (CART), Workday (WDAY), Intuit (INTU), First Solar (FSLR), AMC Entertainment (AMC)

Wednesday: (before open) Advance Auto Parts (AAP), AB InBev (BUD), Stellantis (STLA), NRG (NRG), Lowe's (LOW); (after close) Nvidia (NVDA), SalesForce (CRM), Kratos (KTOS)

Thursday: (before open) Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH), Gray Communications (GTN), TB Bank (TD), Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD); (after close) Bloom Energy (BE), Dell (DELL), SoundHound (SOUN)

Friday: (before open) Frontline PLC (FRO), Butterfly (BFLY), 1st Dibs (DIBS), Fubo TV (FUBO).

The second estimate for fourth quarter GDP is released Thursday, along with durable goods data for January. Both reports should bear weight on markets.

The coming week's data will close out with the PCE Price Index for January - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - on Friday before the opening bell. This is a readout that is losing its significance as the Fed's influence on markets in general is being sent to back-burners.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67

For whatever reason, the Fed added a 6-week bill to the treasury stack. It is not included here this week, but will appear at some point going forward. There's likely to be some volatility to the new issue, so it will deserve some attention, though not much.

Steady as she goes on spreads, with 2s-10s slightly elevated by two basis points to +23. Full Spectrum returned +31 at week's end.

The Fed is becoming increasingly irrelevant. With any luck, they'll still be in business by this time next year, though its extended future is very much in doubt. Having robbed Americans blind via inflation for the past 112 years, the people have had enough of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking, amounting to nothing better than counterfeiting. Americans are unlikely to get their money back, but at least they'll be rid of what "Old Hickory" Andrew Jackson called "a den of vipers" when he abolished the Second Bank of the United States. History can't repeat soon enough.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31

Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, and finally, 70.25 at the New York close this Friday. Five consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative nine percent should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump has finally begun to fall, at $3.13 (down two cents) a gallon Sunday morning, reflecting the lag time between crude prices and gas prices. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling for the next four to six weeks, longer if oil prices continue to slide, which they should.

California remains top of the heap, up only two cents from last week, at $4.80.

Pennsylvania was fell two cents, at $3.35, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second, stable at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were pretty much unchanged. Maryland dropped down to $3.03. New Jersey is back to an even $3.00.

Even Illinois was down a couple of cents, to $3.23. Ohio ($2.89) and Indiana ($2.92) were down the most in the Midwest.

Mississippi ($2.63) fell two cents, holding at the lowest in the country, just slightly better than Louisiana ($2.65) this week. Texas was next at $2.70. Oklahoma was actually higher, checking in a $2.72. Tennessee ($2.71) fell six cents. Alabama ($2.75), Kentucky ($2.76), Arkansas ($2.77) and South Carolina ($2.78) are next. Kansas and Missouri are both at $2.82, followed by Missouri ($2.85), all lower. Georgia dropped two cents ($2.98). Florida continues to fluctuate, up seven cents this week to $3.08.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in five more states than last week. At least 26 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.

The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.41) was off just a penny. Oregon showed another penny increase, at $3.74, while Nevada dropped one cent, to $3.82. Washington was up to $4.13, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.02) was stable, and Idaho ($3.18) fell by two cents.

Bitcoin

This week: $95,900.56
Last week: $97,022.45
2 weeks ago: $96,477.31
6 months ago: $63,975.61
One year ago: $51,728.53
Five years ago: $8,531.39

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000, $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17 ($106.490.10).

There's growing dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain amid speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle. Otherwise, with gold and silver soaring this year (after soaring last year), people may be awakening to the idea that bitcoin and crypto isn't "digital gold" but really all a fantasy, i.e., fool's gold.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.84; last week: 88.63

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60

Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83

Gold continues to shine, the price continuing to make new highs week after week. Silver made nominal gains over the course of the week, once again smacked down on Friday after reaching a high for the week of $33.77 Thursday. On the COMEX, Gold has finished every Friday this year (eight straight) higher than the previous one.

Year-to-date, precious metals are outpacing stocks by a wide margin. Silver is ahead by 14.02%, gold up 11.83%. By comparison, the S&P 500 is up 2.24%, the Dow, 2.08%, NASDAQ, 1.10%. Call it the "Trump Effect" or whatever, but Trump's promise of a "Golden Age" for America has been nothing but good for PMs.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.76	49.99	40.67	39.64
1 oz silver bar:	38.00	53.66	42.54	41.30
1 oz gold coin:	2,993.76	3,200.00	3,111.38	3,122.42
1 oz gold bar:	3,052.60	3,107.64	3,077.11	3,074.48

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was higher for a second straight week, at $41.04, a gain of 64 cents from the February 16 price of $40.40 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Despite what most people in the Eastern half of the U.S. are thinking after another bout with severe cold and prime winter conditions, good times are ahead. Spring is officially less than four weeks away. Baseball’s Spring Training is already well underway in Florida and Arizona. MLB's regular season Opening Day is March 27.

At the Close, Friday, February 21, 2025:
Dow: 43,428.02, -748.63 (-1.69%)
NASDAQ: 19,524.01, -438.36 (-2.20%)
S&P 500: 6,013.13, -104.39 (-1.71%)
NYSE Composite: 19,881.54, -268.31 (-1.33%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1118.06 (-2.51%)
NASDAQ: -502.76 (-2.51%)
S&P 500: -101.50 (1.66%)
NYSE Composite: -248.95 (-1.24%)
Dow Transports: -572.17 (-3.45%)

How Many IRS Employees Are Necessary?; Stocks Look to Avoid Losing Week; DoJ Probe of United Health (UNH) Sends Dow Futures Tumbling

Is it really necessary to have 100,000 people employed at the IRS to collect taxes and process returns from American citizens and corporations?

The answer probably depends on who's being asked. Bean-counters at the tax collection agency would probably argue that they're understaffed. President Trump and Elon Musk's DOGE team think otherwise.

As many as 6,000 probationary employees (those with less than 2 years at their current position) are reportedly being axed this week, a reduction in headcount of 7.5% just as tax filing season gets into full swing.

Deeper cuts are planned for May, after the bulk of filings have been processed. It's probably a safe bet to believe there will be delays and confusion surrounding this year's tax returns. The IRS is notoriously slow, burdened by ancient, legacy computer programs written in COBOL, a language hatched in 1959. Coders with COBOL understanding have become increasingly rare, exacerbating IRS issues processing returns.

The agency has been undergoing "modernization" of its systems since 2019, a six-year plan that should be completed this year, but, like previous IRS promises to upgrade, it's probably been a huge waste of time, effort, and money.

With better systems using modern technology, coupled with a simplified tax code (yes, we're dreaming), headcount could probably be reduced to something in the range of 30-40,000 employees, a reduction of 60-70%, which would save something like $6-7 billion a year, or $60-70 billion over ten years.

Trump has mentioned more than a few times his desire to eliminate the most-hated agency in the federal government, and it appears he's proceeding along that path. According to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutwick, Trump's goal is to replace the income tax with tariffs. Apparently, editors at The New Republic are opposed to freeing Americans from tax slavery. A number of experts believe the federal income tax to be illegal, and the Supreme Court, back in 1892 agreed in a 5-4 ruling.

There is no specific statute that requires Americans to pay income tax and some people believe the 16th amendment, which authorized the income tax and the Federal Reserve System, was never actually ratified.

There are plenty of people who would love to see the IRS defanged and possibly eliminated. Replacement options mentioned include a flat tax, national sales tax, or taxing only businesses and corporations in addition to tariffs.

Using the tried and true 80/20 formula (20% of employees do 80% of the work), there's a solid probability of the IRS being severely downsized over the next few years, if not sooner.

Stocks took a turn south on Thursday, setting up for a big options expiation day Friday. Walmart was the main catalyst for the downturn, the company offering fairly dour guidance.

Block, parent of Square, reported fourth-quarter earnings and revenue well below estimates. Square stock plunged more than 8% Friday in the pre-market.

Rivian was down more than five percent pre-market after the company beat expectations but offered a so-so outlook late Thursday.

Booking (BKNG) rallied nearly 4% in early morning action. MercadoLibre (MELI) is soaring nearly 12%, the company reporting strong earnings and revenue in the fourth quarter.

Dow futures took a huge leg downward as Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH) plunged more than 12% after a reported Department of Justice probe on Medicare billing was reported.

A half hour until the open, Dow futures are down more than 250 points. NASDAQ futures are up 80, while S&P futures are flat-lining.

Bitcoin continues its flirtation with $100,000, a level it has not exceeded since February 4. Being Friday, gold and silver are lower, as expected. For whatever reason, PM riggers always seem to want to send prices down at the end of every week, setting up casual buying opportunities over the weekend for stackers. Well, OK.

WTI crude oil is down early Friday, but seeks its first week to the upside in the past five. It needs to close above $71.06, currently, the price is $72.08.

As of Thursday's close, the Dow is down 359 points on the week, the NASDAQ is down 64, S&P up 3 points.

At the Close, Thursday, February 20, 2025:
Dow: 44,176.65, -450.94 (-1.01%)
NASDAQ: 19,962.36, -93.89 (-0.47%)
S&P 500: 6,117.52, -26.63 (-0.43%)
NYSE Composite: 20,149.85, -78.36 (-0.39%)

Stocks Hitting Resistance at All-Time Highs; Walmart Issues dull Guidance; FOMC Minutes Show Fed Holding on Rates

Compared to recent days, Wednesday was a little on the dull side. Elon Musk and DOGE didn't fire whole departments, President Trump didn't end any wars, and the stock market relied upon minutes from the January FOMC meeting for investment decisions.

Federal Reserve officials discussed the effects of potential changes in trade from proposed Trump tariffs and weighed the administration's efforts to slow illegal immigration and deport potentially millions of working age adults on the economy. They also reportedly discussed the inherent difficulty in discerning whether changes would be persistent or temporary regarding inflation, employment, and the general economy, minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28-29 meeting showed.

Essentially, the FOMC members couldn't make heads or tails of Trump or his directives other than to guess about their effectiveness, so they took a wait and see approach, deciding to keep the federal funds rate at current levels, indicating a preference for holding off on rate cuts in the near term.

From the minutes, Wall Street's coven of watchful witches bubbled up a brew that was somehow positive, sending stocks from their doldrums to another gloriously positive finish and a record close on the S&P 500. The main beneficiary was, as usual, NASDAQ, which ended positive for the fifth straight session. The S&P has closed higher eight of the past 11 sessions. Only the NYSE Composite remained lower for the day.

After the close Wednesday, a few more earnings reports trickled in, notable Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), which posted solid Q4 and full year 2024 figures. for the quarter, revenue: came in at a record $921 million against analyst expectations for $913.2 million and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP) was $1.04 versus estimates of $0.91. While the restaurant chain's quarter was solid, shares are down between one and two percent in pre-market trading, likely on a pure valuation play. The stock just hit its highest level since June, 2021, even though its dividend yield is nearly two percent and p/e ratio not excessive, in the high teens.

Also reporting after the Wednesday close was Carvana (CVNA). Even though the company beat estimates top and bottom line, the stock is being slaughtered pre-open, down seven percent. Shares recently reached their highest level in three years, but the company's margins are so tight, valuation appears to be the main issue.

On revenues of $3.55 billion for the quarter ended December 2024 the company earned $369 million, or 56 cents per share.

Reporting Thursday morning, Wayfair (W) showed a quarterly loss of $128 million or $1.02 per share on revenue of $3.1 billion, which was just slightly higher than year-ago revenue. Apparently, that's good enough, as shares are flying eight percent higher pre-market.

The kicker was Walmart (WMT), the nation's largest retailer. The company reported another solid quarter, beating estimates, but their guidance was dour, sending shares sharply lower prior to the open. Walmart is trending down six to eight percent a half hour before the bell.

Weekly jobless claims continued to trend near multi-decade lows. 219,000 initial claims were filed in the most recent week. Paradoxically, continuing claims were near 2.0 million, close to four-year highs.

With the open dead ahead, stock futures are slumping. Dow: -155; NASDAQ: -55; S&P: -18.

Gold hit a high of $2,972 earlier in the morning, but has come down off that number. Silver is trending around $33.50. WTI crude got a boost on Wednesday and that trend continues into Thursday, with a barrel going for around $72.50.

The market is teetering close to all-time highs. The Shiller PE ratio hit 38.75 as of Wednesday's close, surpassing the post=pandemic high in October, 2021 (38.58).

At the Close, Wednesday, February 19, 2025:
Dow: 44,627.59, +71.25 (+0.16%)
NASDAQ: 20,056.2, +14.99 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 6,144.15, +14.57 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,228.20, -12.19 (-0.06%)

The United States Is a Big Slush Fund; Treasury Missing $4.7 Trillion; Did Goldfinger Steal All of Fort Knox's Gold?

The world has been turned upside down. Just a month since Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States, he's unleashed Elon Musk and his troops at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) upon various agencies and departments of the federal government, uncovering massive levels of fraud, waste, abuse, and corruption.

Democrats - and quite a few Republicans - in congress are in a panic, not because Trump and Musk have unearthed incredible amounts of money missing, wasted, spent, or plundered, but because they fear further unraveling of their hidden truths. Just who was taking bribes, hush money, kickbacks. It's no wonder the Senate pushed the confirmation of Kash Patel as Director of the FBI back a week. Certain lawmakers likely need more time to shred documents, wipe computer hard drives, close bank accounts before the investigations begin.

Meanwhile, Wall Street is content to carry on as though everything is normal, when the condition is actually closer to one of extreme FUBAR. Tuesday's close was yet another example of the devious nature exhibited in lower Manhattan. All of the major indices were in the red just 11 minutes before the final bell. Miraculously, as has been standard practice for months, even years, all of the exchanges turned green at the close.

Wall Street insiders depend on casual investors to only see the closing prices, not peer at daily charts. Those who did saw the Dow down by more than 220 points earlier in the session. "Painting the tape" as it were, has become such a common event that it's expected, and without explanation. Stocks go up. Everybody knows that.

In the travails of the DOGE team over the weekend and into Tuesday, it was discovered that there were thousands of individual social security numbers in age groups from 100 to as high as 300 years with the Death field entered a "false", meaning, according to the SSA's database, these people were still alive, and, ostensibly, entitled to receive benefits. Were they? And since thousands of people don't live to be 100, 120, 140 or more, who actually received the payments? That is going to require more forensic investigation.

Beyond that, Musk tweeted that $4.7 trillion of Treasury payments had no TAS code, and would be "untraceable." That raised a few eyebrows.

If $4.7 trillion was missing or lost or otherwise unaccounted for, divided equally, how much would that be per U.S. citizen?

As of February 1, 2025, the estimated population of the U.S. is 341,271,663. Dividing the total amount of money ($4.7 Trillion) unaccounted for at the U.S. Treasury by the U.S. population produces the following calculation:

$4,700,000,000,000 divided by 341,271,663 U.S. citizens = $13,769.75 (approximately).

Therefore, each U.S. citizen is on the hook for approximately $13,769.75. Surely, some people could use that extra cash.

The responsible party is the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, the highest-ranking career official in the United States Department of the Treasury. David Lebryk served as Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the Treasury between 2014 and 2025. Of course, he served under Janet Yellen, a former Chair of the Federal Reserve. MoneyDaily pointed out that she should never have confirmed, given her ties to the Fed, a foreign, private bank.

Further down the rabbit hole, the requirement for using TAS for every disbursement is not found in a single, standalone statute. Instead, it's a fundamental requirement woven into the fabric of federal financial management through a combination of:

Statutory authority (31 U.S.C. §§ 3512, 3513) establishing the need for robust accounting systems and giving the Treasury the authority to set the rules.

Treasury regulations and guidance (TFM, FAST Book) providing the specific instructions and procedures for using TAS.

OMB guidance (Circulars A-123, A-136) reinforcing the importance of internal controls and accurate financial reporting.

GAO guidance (Title 7) providing further clarification on fiscal procedures.

The system is designed to ensure that every dollar spent by the federal government can be tracked back to its source appropriation, promoting transparency and accountability. The use of TAS is not optional; it's a mandatory part of federal financial management.

Well, somebody needs to do some 'splainin'.

Then there's the not-so-insignificant issue of the gold in Fort Knox. Elon Musk, with the backing of Senator Ron Paul, intends to inspect the vaults, the same ones Auric Goldfinger (Gerd Forbe) planned to abscond with in the 1964 classic OO7 film, "Goldfinger". Who knows, maybe James Bond really didn't catch the villain, Goldfinger's operation "Grand Slam" was a success, and the gold is gone.

Earnings from various companies were reported Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday prior to the bell.

Auction and retail platform Etsy reported before the open Wednesday. Spending on the platform was down 6.8% overall and the number of active buyers fell 2.6%. Though the company managed to beat earnings expectations, the miss on the revenue side has investors fleeing for the exits. Shares of ETSY are down more than five percent in pre-market trading.

Gold ripped higher on Tuesday after being slammed Friday. It's currently trending around $2,955. Silver is bouncing around the mid-$33s. Crude oil has caught a bid, stock futures are lower.

Sooner or later, there's going to be a reckoning, and, judging by the speed at which Trump is proceeding, it looks like sooner. Oh, and U.S. and Russian negotiators pretty much shut down project Ukraine, despite protestations from war-mongers in Europe and the little dictator, Zelensky.

At the Close, Tuesday, February 18, 2025:
Dow: 44,556.34, +10.26 (+0.02%)
NASDAQ: 20,041.26, +14.49 (+0.07%)
S&P 500: 6,129.58, +14.95 (+0.24%)
NYSE Composite: 20,240.39, +109.91 (+0.55%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.

WEEKEND WRAP: DC Panic; Wall Street Apathy; Gold-Backed Currencies Within 1-3 Years; Slowing Ecnomy; Higher Unemployment

Panic is trending in Washington D.C.

Anybody tired of #WINNING yet?

There are unconfirmed rumors of a massive spike in the number of houses up fr sale in and around the Washington D.C. metro area.

Checking with Zillow in a broad search of the area (Beltway and slightly beyond), there were:

• 6700 homes listed for 6 months
• 5753 homes listed for 90 days
• 2922 homes listed for 30 days
• 1709 homes listed for 14 days
• 932 homes listed for 7 days

Doesn't seem to exactly point to an exodus. It will probably be insightful to watch rents and home sale prices over the next six months, however, as Trump and Musk take an axe to the federal workforce. With all the layoffs, firings, and upcoming prosecutions, it's a good bet that there's going to be more than enough housing for the few that remain. Prices should absolutely crumble unless BlackRock goes in and buys them all (which is a possibility).

After four weeks of the Trump presidency, politicians are scrambling to delete incriminating evidence from hard drives, cell phones, bank records, you name it. An estimate of how many of the current 535 members of congress (100 senators, 435 members of the House) have taken bribes, kickbacks, or dirty money of some kind would have to be in the 90 percentile range. Estimating how many will resign and/or be caught, be tried, be convicted is probably in the high teens to low 20s. It's fairly obvious U.S. elected officials and higher-ups in government employ have been fleecing the taxpayers for years, even decades. Finally, there may be some exposure to just how deep the corruption has dug into the roots of politics in D.C.

It's pretty deep and Americans want the crooks exposed. More to come, as they say.

Meanwhile, Wall Street, responsible for at least some of the corruption via insider tips, favors, and probably payments to politicians, continues to stroll along as if nothing has changed. That's despite the revelations last week that inflation was not under control with the CPI and PPI both at higher levels than previous months and retail sales in January crashing (-0.9%).

Stocks

Stocks had a good week, with all the major indices posting gains, led by the NASDAQ (+2.58%), which, along with the S&P, ended a two-week-long slide. The Dow Jones Transportation Average was the best of the bunch with a gain of 2.84% for the week.

The week past saw mixed results from companies reporting, but most were boosted higher despite results that were largely reflective of a slowing economy.

The coming week will be shortened, with markets shuttered Monday (Presidents' Day). The earnings calendar gets a little lighter.

Monday: (markets closed) Transocean (RIG), Huntsman (HUN)

Tuesday: (before open) Baidu (BIDU), Medtronic (MDT), Entergy (ETR); (after close) Celanese (CE), Devon Energy (DVN), Toll Brothers (TOL)

Wednesday: (before open) Wix (WIX), Fiverr (FVRR), Analog Devices (ADI), Etsy (ETSY), Garmin (GRMN); (after close) Bausch Health (BHC), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Equinox Gold (EQX), Carvana (CVNA)

Thursday: (before open) Walmart (WMT), Wayfair (W), Birkenstock (BIRK), Shake Shack (SHAK); (after close) Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Newmont Mining (NEM), Mercado Libre (MELI), Rivian (RIVN)

Friday: (before open) US Cellular (USM), Atmus (ATMU), Uniti (UNIT).

Data drops are slim, the most important - and becoming less so every day - will be the Fed minutes from the January FOMC meeting. Nothing spectacular or market moving in that Wednesday afternoon (usually 2:00 pm ET) release.


Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/10/2025	4.42	4.35	4.36	4.33	4.27	4.25
01/17/2025	4.43	4.35	4.34	4.32	4.28	4.21
01/24/2025	4.45	4.36	4.35	4.32	4.25	4.17
01/31/2025	4.37	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/10/2025	4.40	4.46	4.59	4.70	4.77	5.04	4.96
01/17/2025	4.27	4.33	4.42	4.52	4.61	4.91	4.84
01/24/2025	4.27	4.33	4.43	4.53	4.63	4.91	4.85
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69

Nothing says flat like the difference between the lowest rate (4.23%, 1-year note) and the highest (4.69%, 30-year bond) of 0.46%. The 20-year (4.75%) is an anomaly and left aside of calculations.

The Federal Reserve is being defanged by the Trump administration, gradually, but the effort will pick up momentum as soon as other issues are deemed under control. Those others include downsizing the government, a huge lift in foreign affairs (Middle East, Ukraine chief among them), and the domestic economy. Taking a wrecking ball to the Federal Reserve is the best part of the journey and purposely reserved for the end.

While the Fed will attempt to assert its authority from time to time via sporadic speeches and the usual rhetoric from their 10 annual FOMC soirees, it was clear from the last FOMC meeting at the end of January that conditions have changed. The Fed stood down, keeping the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50% and Chairman Powell was as mealy-mouthed and non-committal as he could be, barring an outright gag order, at his press conference.

Monetary policy is being taken out of the Fed's hands and will ultimately become a function of the Treasury. Currently, the treasury, secondary bond markets, and forex are providing all the monetary indicators needed without input from the Federal Reserve. The people doing their diligence at the Mariner Eccles building might as well start clearing their desks, packing their bags and sharpening up their resumes. Their days are numbered.

The American people clearly demand an honest government and Trump is delivering on that promise. They will ultimately demand honest money, but that is an issue for another day, though, considering the speed at which Trump is operating, that day could come sooner than many wish to consider. The U.S. dollar, along with Russia's rouble, China's yuan, and India's rupee will have gold backing, either in full or in fraction, either for international trade or domestic transactions, at some time within the next one to three years. It only makes sense to have honest money the global standard and the countries with the largest gold holdings will dominate how currencies adjust to the emerging new standards.

Central banks, being private, will protest vigorously, but their lamentations will fall on deaf ears. The global community has had its fill of the World Bank, IMF, and fiat currencies backed by nothing but faith in central banks, not governments. Once governments begin to wrest control of their currencies back from the debt pushers, there will be no stopping their momentum. The process has begun and the leaders of the "Big Four" will coordinate their agendas.

Central banks will become irrelevant and soon dissolve. Government treasuries issuing the currency of their respective nations will become the norm. This is the biggest story of the century, unfolding before our very eyes though most people are blind to it.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32


Oil/Gas

WTI crude oil prices continue to fall, from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, and finally to $70.56 at the New York close this Friday. Four consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 8.80% should have convinced enough people that the price of oil is not going back up any time soon, regardless of cold winter heating days or summer driving season.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up another four cents from last week, at $3.15 a gallon Sunday morning.

California remains top of the heap, up sharply from last week, at $4.78, from $4.56 last week and $4.43 a gallon two weeks ago.

Pennsylvania was up marginally at $3.37, the Keystone State remaining the price leader in the Northeast. New York is a distant second or third, at $3.15. Connecticut ($3.07) was sstable along with Massachusetts ($3.00). Maryland dropped back to third in the Northeast ($3.10).

Illinois was up three cents, to $3.25. Ohio ($3.02) and Indiana ($2.99) were static.

Mississippi ($2.65) held at the lowest, just slightly better than Oklahoma ($2.66) this week. Following are Texas ($2.68) and Louisiana ($2.68). Tennessee ($2.77), Alabama ($2.78), and South Carolina ($2.79) are next, followed by Kentucky ($2.82), Kansas and Arkansas (both, $2.83), and Missouri ($2.87). Georgia bounced higher, ($3.00). Florida fell 14 cents, to $3.01.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in fewer states than in prior weeks. At least 21 U.S. states have prices under $3.00, down from more than 24 last week and 28 a few weeks ago.

Arizona ($3.42) is up another 16 cents from last week. Oregon showed prices higher by a dime, at $3.73. Nevada was up 14 cents, at $3.83. Washington was up 12 cents to $4.12, joining California in the small club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($3.03) was stable, but Idaho ($3.20) was higher by three cents.


Bitcoin

This week: $97,022.45
Last week: $96,477.31
2 weeks ago: $98,218.74
6 months ago: $59,131.83
One year ago: $51,685.54
Five years ago: $9,667.06

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Hodlers are becoming impatient, former "diamond hands" turning to granite, eventually to sand as they see profits slip through their fingers. The price rise from $50,000 $60,000 to above $100,000 took place in September, October, and November of last year and has stalled out, with the all-time high now a look back to December 17.

There exists a growing degree of dissatisfaction with the Trump administration in moving bitcoin and crypto in general to a higher plain and some speculation that the President was pandering for votes in his pro-crypto messaging during the election cycle.

Rational people who largely agree that bitcoin is nothing more than vaporware and a slush fund for criminals and Wall Street firms like BlackRock (same thing) have watched the fluctuations in price and sentiment and are seeing chart patterns eerily similar to those in 2021, which plateaued at higher levels before falling sharply, decimating both price and sentiment.

In the end, crypto speculators will get what's coming to them in a cascade of rapid declines, just like previous iterations.


Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.63; last week: 89.66

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Gold price 1/26: $2,777.40
Gold price 2/2: $2,809.30
Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70

Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Silver price 1/26: $31.04
Silver price 2/2: $32.24
Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65

Gold peaked somewhere around $2,966 on the COMEX late Monday, was ripped lower, bounced back Thursday into Friday, then was mercilessly punched down all day Friday into the weekend. Silver took a similar roundtrip, though the high was on Friday, the price of $34.23 the best since late October.

It's the same tired story. Every time PMs apear ready to break out - and this is especially true for silver - the COMEX wheel grinds it down to more pedestrian levels. Sooner or later this price manipulation that has become so tortured and obvious will end. Until that time, there's little to do other than wait or buy more.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	38.49	44.95	39.96	39.00
1 oz silver bar:	35.22	46.22	41.14	41.48
1 oz gold coin:	2,930.59	3,071.97	3,019.45	3,024.07
1 oz gold bar: 2,996.31	3,050.50	3,020.39	3,019.36

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) ended three weeks of declines with a rise to $40.40, a gain of 97 cents from the February 9 price of $39.43 per troy ounce.


WEEKEND WRAP

Things in Washington D.C. and across America are just beginning to get interesting. It's going to take a while for Wall Street to begin reflecting the rapid-fire changes to the economic landscape. Judging by the most important metrics, stocks should be nearing a top, and with earnings season for the first quarter winding down, more focus will be on events in D.C. that are reshaping the government.

The massive movement of employees off the federal workforce roles will result in an unemployment spike. There's little doubt about that, but unemployment is always a lagging indicator. Impact to the nation's "wealth effect" will take considerably longer to materialize and it's possible that Trump's policies of mass firings, resignations, and furloughs, combined with potentially millions of deportations, and threats of tariffs rather than real ones, will likely stave off further inflationary tendencies.

Companies may not experience much pricing power with consumers and credit stretched to extremes. An end to "Project Ukraine" and peace with Russia may be emboldened by lifting of sanctions, especially with regard to energy. With oil prices are already under pressure, removal of sanctions on Russian oil could produce a significant glut worldwide, and, set against an environment of slack to declining demand, is outright dis-inflationary, possibly deflationary.

It's difficult to believe stocks can continue to rise in such an environment. Once housing prices begin to readjust back toward mean pricing, stocks and other financial assets should follow.

For now, it's a guessing game.

Happy Presidents' Day.

At the Close, Friday, February 14, 2025:
Dow: 44,546.08, -165.35 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 20,026.77, +81.13 (+0.41%)
S&P 500: 6,114.63, -0.44 (-0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 20,130.48, -50.81 (-0.25%)

For the Week:
Dow: +242.68 (+0.55%)
NASDAQ: +503.37 (+2.58%)
S&P 500: +88.64 (+1.47%)
NYSE Composite: +91.00 (+0.45%)
Dow Transports: +459.34 (+2.84%)

Editor's Note: X has temporarily suspended this account from posting for one week. Sorry.