The Fix Is In

As investors - and guys who wear pinstripe suits but really haven't a clue - nervously watched the Dow Jones Industrials plummet by another 200 points this morning, the intrepid manipulators from the Federal Reserve Bank (working, no doubt, in concert with the Plunge Protection Team) pumped two injections of "liquidity" into the markets in the morning and added a smaller boost in the afternoon.

In other words, the Fed bought stocks from brokers who, as part of the so-called "repo" deal, agreed to deposit the funds in Federally-insured member banks.

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Thus, a mammoth crash and thud was averted.

When the fed buys stocks, they aren't just fishing nor fiddling. Today's double dose was a total of $34 billion, designed to keep order in the face of an imminent sell-off. Late in the session, with the markets still down smartly, the Fed added another $3 billion.

Apparently, it worked, because the markets failed to melt down as many feared they would. However, these measures are little more than band-aids in a market that is hemorrhaging on multiple fronts.

Due to the blow-up of sub-prime mortgage loans, note holders find themselves stuck with much worthless paper. The spill-over into derivative, insurance, M&A and other credit markets has been stoking fears of financial calamity.

Without a doubt, this is a big mess that's not going to end soon or resolve in a pretty way. Billions of dollars are going to be lost, credit markets will become frighteningly tight and even the Fed's money won't be enough to secure liquidity and order in the equity markets. What's especially frightening about the situation is that the Fed was forced to take such extraordinary measures to shore up markets.

The "repo" swaps are not new. They've been used during other stressful periods, such as in the winter after 9/11, but their effect is marginal. The announcement that the Fed is taking the action is actually much more of a salve on the nerves of traders than the actual money making trades.

Dow 13,239.54 -31.14; NASDAQ 2,544.89 -11.60; S&P 500 1,453.64 +0.55; NYSE Composite 9,435.04 -14.27

The downside of such action, however, is that the Fed eventually has to balance its own books, and buying up stocks in a sliding market - catching the proverbial falling knife - is poor investment strategy, to say the least. When the Fed unloads these stocks, often at a loss, it creates a glut on the market and costs the Fed money. Of course, the Fed can just print up more, and they do, making all those dollars in your pockets worth a little less.

Again, it's nothing more than a stop-gap measure and far from a solution. The real solution would be to allow the market to take its own course, and let the losers lose and the winners win. For all the talk of "free markets" by Fed governors and other high government officials, they certainly act like they have little to no faith in what they preach.

The crash is upon us. With the Fed's help, it will be worse than it has to be. Tighten your belts, we're headed for recession-land.

Market internals allow for a much better understanding of what really happened on Wall Street this Friday. Declining issues rolled over advancers by a 9-5 margin. New lows swamped new highs, 736-82. Even with the Fed's helping hand, there were plenty of casualties on the day.

Oil continued to slip, down 12 cents to $71.47, but still far from it's bottom, which is just a matter of time. Gold perked up $8.80 to $681.60; silver rose 17 cents to $12.87. These are still screaming buys and now would be a good time to stock up.

The coming weeks and months hold still more intrigue and downside. The bulk of the sub-prime loans which are subject to repricing and therefore, default, have yet to do so. October through next March will bear witness to an avalanche of mortgage defaults and a share of bank and financial concern failings.

Cash is king for now, especially if it's in Euros or gold.

CRASH

Let's call a spade a spade.

This market is all but wiped out, as is the US economy. We'll be lucky if we're not invaded by a foreign power.

We've had a president in office for the past 6 1/2 years - and for the most part, a compliant Congress of his party - who's done everything in his power to dismantle the social fabric and the constitution and spend and borrow every last dime of our nation's wealth.

The policies of George W. Bush and the lack of regulation and oversight of the administration and congress have put the nation on the precipice of capitulation. Our financial system is about to implode under the weight of bad loans made right under the eyes of our elected and non-elected officials. The former and current Secretaries of the Treasury and Chairmen of the Fed, Alan Greenspan and Bernanke, are the main delinquents. The current holders of those offices should be immediately relieved of their duties and the president should be impeached. They have failed us miserably and probably engaged in criminal activity. At least in the President, Vice President and Attorney General's case, we are sure that they did.

Those who do not agree should take account. Our bridges and roads are crumbling, we spend billions a month in a war effort that has produced no tangible result except death and destruction, and now our financial institutions are under siege.

If that's not enough, maybe you'd prefer to wait until some of the banks fail or we go to war with Iran or the president declares martial law. Maybe then you'll wake up from your stupidity-induced stupor and see what liberals and progressives have been screaming about.

Or maybe you're content watching and believing in whatever lies they tell you on FOX News. In that case, go ahead and stick your head in the sand. The real intellectual forces of this country have no use for you and your kind.

Dow 13,270.68 -387.18; NASDAQ 2,556.49 -56.49; S&P 500 1,453.09 -44.40; NYSE Composite 9,449.31 -296.89

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 380 points today. That's one hefty loss. The other indices followed and it's very likely that the losses would have been larger had not the PPT (Plunge Protection Team, aka the President's Working Group on Financial Markets) been stepping in to stem losses.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bush is heading out of town for a 3 week vacation, but he made sure to mention, before he left, that taxes on corporations should be lowered. After all, Bush made the tax system safe for millionaires and billionaires, why not multi-national corporations who have little to no allegiance to the United States of America?

More ill-advised policy. Just what we need.

Market internals were not as bad as one would expect. Declining issues outpaced advancers by a 15-6 margin. There were 197 new highs, but 606 new lows.

Oil futures closed down 56 cents, to $71.59. Gold and silver were absolutely shattered, with gold off $13.50 and silver down 47 cents. A buying opportunity.

By the way, if you think today was bad, it was only the 2nd worst day of the year, and there's more downside ahead - a lot more.

The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are all still positive for the year, but one gets the felling that it's a temporary condition. The Dow closed 2006 at 12,463. We're getting closer.

More Manipulation in Stocks

The US equity markets are beginning to take on theater of the absurd qualities, and Wednesday's trading patterns were possibly even more ridiculous than any of the preceding week.

Looking solely at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, here's how the day went. Stocks were higher right out of the gate and continued in an orderly climb until peaking, up 190 points, just prior to 2:30 pm. Then, without warning and without any notable news event, the index retreated to break even at just before 3:30.

A drop of 190 points in an hour? Well, we've seen gains of that magnitude in the same time frame, so why not?

Alarmed, the government meddlers from the PPT (Plunge Protection Team, aka, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets) quickly swung into action, sending the index soaring to a close 153 points higher. Sweet. Brilliant. Bravo. Bulls**t.

This market is now being so openly gamed that the players aren't even trying to disguise their moves. The whole operation is designed to keep the public in the dark and avoid panic selling in the face of a serious credit squeeze and the imminent collapse of certain financial institutions. What we are not seeing behind the scenes - and probably will be covered up neatly in SEC filings (yes, they will lie), are billions of dollars being lost, wasted, fondled and otherwise misused in derivative markets, forex trades, futures and other odd-ball, shadowy "investment" vehicles. We may never know exactly what is occurring.

Dow 13,657.86 +153.56; NASDAQ 2,612.98 +51.38; S&P 500 1,497.49 +20.78; NYSE Composite 9,746.20 +140.13

What we do know, beyond any doubt, is that the markets are being pulled, kicking and screaming, to the upside by agents of the government, acting "in our best interest" on our (formerly) free, open market exchange.

Investors should be at the height of outrage, but this kind of thing has happened before and will happen again. Most casual observers will never even look at a one day chart of the Dow, the NASDAQ or any other index for that matter. Most don't even look at charts of the stocks they own, whether they be in mutual funds or owned individually.

The general public is being taken as fools and rightfully so. They are.

It's barely worth commenting on anything in this rigged market, since fundamentals, reports and sound investment strategies no longer matter. The markets are going to continue to rise until the next election, Democrats and honest investors be dammed. All is well. Look away now.

The spectacular gains of the past three days (465 points on the Dow) are all the more disturbing in the face of the slumping housing market, though the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced today that median home prices would fall less sharply than previously expected (1.2% instead of 1.4%). Tell that to sellers in Ventura, California or Vero Beach, Florida. The NAR is interested in keeping prices higher, so their credibility should also be called into questioned.

Advancers trounced decliners for a change, by a 9-2 margin, but new lows were again well above new highs, 636-358. The "players" made a lot of money going long today, though they still were unable to lift all of the sinking ships.

Speaking of rigging, oil lost 27 cents in futures trading, closing at $72.15. Gold was up $4.00 and silver added 8 cents to 13.17. There's still time to buy the metals!

Fool's Gold

Like the iron pyrite miners mistook for the real thing in gold rush days, this week's market has all the metallic luster and brassy hue of Fool's Gold, and similarly, nothing of real value.

As was noted profusely and extravagantly in yesterday's post, this market has all the tell-tale signals of intense manipulation by people with an interest in keeping the status quo intact. What that means for Mr. and Mrs. Average Investor is a great deal of knock ups (and downs) without any endurance.

Tuesday's squeamish advance was a case in point.

Stocks hovered around the flat line, as they often do on Fedspeak days such as this, until 2:15, when Ben Bernanke and the FOMC board announced that they would again do nothing, neither raising nor lowering key rates, keeping the Federal Funds rate at its year-long level of 5.25%.

The reaction by Wall Street was tantalizingly dubious, as stocks first fell to their lows of the session, only to bounce back an astonishing 250 points between 2:30 and 3:30, before finally exhausting themselves for nothing more than a modest bounce to the plus side.

Dow 13,504.30 +35.52; NASDAQ 2,561.60 +14.27; S&P 500 1,476.71 +9.04; NYSE Composite 9,606.07 +52.30

Once again, we have to recognize the not-so-invisible hand of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT) involved in boosting prices in the later stages of the trading day. 250-point moves don't just appear out of thin air, especially after a disappointing proposition from the Fed.

It can be safely assumed that the Fed is in such a bind right now that standing pat may save face, but it's hardly prudent. Many people (mostly people ignorant of the real depth of the financial mess Wall Street is in) were rooting for a rate decrease, when it is just that kind of thinking and policy - looser credit - that got the financial world into the current dreariness in the first place.

Those more astute in these matter would rather see the Fed ratchet up both the rhetoric and the rate, inflict a bit of short term pain, but set off for a long term solution. Doing nothing only extends and exacerbates the condition. We're in for a cold end of the summer.

As they've been for most of the past to weeks, market internals were just short of miserable. Advancing issues actually outplayed decliners by a 4-3 margin, though new lows swamped new highs, 792-168. It's kind of like the Yankees playing their single-A farm club. It's a nice show, but eventually it's still a beating.

One also gets the feeling that the only people who understand what's really happening are bond and commodity traders. While I won't attempt to match wits with the fixed-return community, traders of oil futures showed signs that the jig may be up. Prices advanced slightly, up 36 cents, to $72.42 and moved in a mostly negative band as low as $71.20. We're on the verge of seeing oil dip below $70 as the summer turns to fall and drivers take less trips.

Gold and silver are now screaming buys as they've retraced only slightly from recent highs. While stocks are set for more poignant plunges, the metals offer safe haven. Tomorrow's almost certain to be witness to a sell-off, with bigger blows possible later this week. The last two days were nothing more than relief via fondling.

Shades of 2001

Today's rally reminded me of another time - not so long ago - in which the markets experienced volatile swings to the upside and down. It was the Summer of 2001 and the markets were being roiled by fraud scandals (Enron, WorldCom, et. al.) and weak economic numbers.

The story begins with the Dow trading to an intra-day high on June 29 of 10,729.18 and hitting an intra-day low of 9.431.07 on September 10.

Dow losses July, August, Sept., 2001
July 6 -227, July 12 +237, July 23 -152, July 24 -177, July 25 +164

Aug. 8 -165, Aug. 17 -152, Aug. 21 -146, Aug. 24 +194, Aug. 28 -160, Aug. 30 -171
Sept. 6 -193 Sept. 7 -235

On September 10, the market had one of the most volatile sessions ever, a range of more than 400 points, eventually losing 0.34. No, that is not a misprint. On September 10, the Dow Jones Industrials lost thirty-four cents.

We all remember what happened the following day. On September 11, two airliners crashed into the World Trade Center in New York City, resulting in the worst single man-made catastrophe on mainland America in our history. The financial markets were closed down for a week, and when they reopened on Monday, Sept. 17, the Dow lost another 685 points, as panicked investors scrambled to get out of positions.

Three trading sessions later, on September 20, the Dow lost another 383 points, followed by another 140 point loss the following day. The total loss for that week was a staggering 1,370 points.

Eventually, the market would bottom, though it took more than a year, with the Dow hitting a closing low of 7,286.27 on October 9, 2002. The NASDAQ fared much worse.

I mention this not because I think there is going to be another 9/11 (though history does tend to repeat itself). We may already have witnessed our planned disaster for the year - the Minnesota bridge collapse - without the nasty side effect of a tumbling stock market. I may be going overboard on a conspiracy tangent, but I wish to point out the similarities between the market of 2007 and that of 2001.

We are definitely in a bear market, and that's made all the more obvious by the conspicuous presence of rather large, late-day rallies, like Monday's. But all along, the market continues on a downward path. There is certainly more downside to come.

Dow 13,468.78 +286.87; NASDAQ 2,547.33 +36.08; S&P 500 1,467.67 +34.61; NYSE Composite 9,553.77 +183.17

Today's rally was also one of the narrowest on record. Declining issues actually outdid advancers, 3194 - 3185 and new lows swamped new highs, 1176-102. There are 6546 stocks on the NYSE and NASDAQ combined. That many lows mean that nearly 18% of all stocks hit 52-week lows. A 286-point gain on the Dow can surely hide a lot of evils.

Of the 30 Dow stocks, only one - Alcoa - showed a loss.

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Once again, somebody is playing favorites. This has to be one of the phoniest rallies ever. Get ready for another scoop from FOX News. When 18% of the market is hitting new 52-week lows, the rest of the market is usually not euphoric. There's manipulation of a massive degree being foisted upon unsuspecting investors - mostly individual traders and mutual fund holders. You see big gains on one hand, though on the other, your stocks, or your funds, are down.

One more comparison to 2001 is in order. Tomorrow the Federal Open market Committee of the Federal Reserve meets to consider any rate changes. There is a growing number of cries for a 25 basis point decrease from 5.25 to 5 percent. The August 21 FOMC meeting release reads as follows:

Release Date: August 21, 2001

The Federal Open Market Committee at its meeting today decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3-1/2 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 3 percent. Today's action by the FOMC brings the decline in the target federal funds rate since the beginning of the year to 300 basis points.

Now, just as then, the Fed may be thinking that it's time to loosen credit again. Sadly, that's what got us into this mess to begin with. Further loosening will only exacerbate an already bad situation. Better to tighten rate policy and inflict some small degree of suffering than risk an overwhelming, years long, inflationary stagnation.

Meanwhile, oil was dumped in a large way, with futures falling $3.42 to $72.06. The handwriting is on the wall. The hand-wringing has yet to begin.

And just how does ExxonMobil gain 1.46 (1.76%) on that news? Somebody enlighten me to the new math and the new market dynamics because I'd say I'm confused, but I'm not. The kinds of things that occurred today are just not supposed to happen... unless, of course, somebody's tinkering with the machinery of the free market.

Gold and silver posted marginal losses. Stock up.