According to the expert headline writers at Yahoo! Finance, "Insurance Companies and Homebuilders Sparked Wednesday's Rally."
Really! They said that, which doesn't adequately explain why the NASDAQ was sporting an 85-15% up to down volume bias, and probably wasn't the reason for any rally at all. Why stocks rallied today may have been hope for more crookedness, in the form of a relaxation of shorting rules proposed by the SEC, or maybe they were right in part, at least as far as concerns insurance companies, because the Treasury is rumored to be planning to include some life insurance companies under the bailout umbrella of TARP.
As for homebuilders, Pulte Homes (PHM) agreed to purchase Centex (CTX) for $1.3 billion in stock, which is amazing in that its hard to believe any homebuilder could even be worth $1.3 billion, let alone have that amount of stock available for the purchase of another homebuilder. Maybe they've been getting secret TARP funds from Tim Geithner.
In any case, the rally was not all that large as to get uptight about it, considering that it is occurring in the middle of the worst financial meltdown in the history of the world. Yes, you read that right. The worst EVER. Beating the tulip bust, the fall of Rome and even our very own Great Depression. Additionally, the rally fell apart precisely at 2:00 pm. So much for homebuilders and failed insurance providers.
Why is this the worst financial meltdown ever, you ask? Simple, because during the Great Depression the USA was a net exporter and routinely ran budget surpluses rather than deficits. We were on the gold standard then, as compared to the "thin air" standard we've been on since 1971, when the great (satire), late Richard Nixon repudiated our debts by refusing to honor the Bretton Woods agreements, thus taking our currency from one being backed by gold to one being backed by "the full faith and credit" of the United States of America, which is a very bad joke today because nobody has any faith in America anymore and we are a nation strung out on credit. The burgeoning national debt, now surging past $12 trillion, will never be repaid, ever, so, yes, this is the worst economic crisis and collapse in the history of the planet.
There are other reasons, such as the fact that we no longer have an industrial base, having shipped all of that to foreign countries, and the social safety net, which includes social security, welfare, and unemployment benefit recipients, were not even around during the Great Depression, though now they act only as an increase on GDP and a net productivity loss. Those people are freeloaders, producing nothing. So, those of you who believe the official government figure of 8.5% unemployment, start including retirees, welfare loafers and people supposedly seeking work, and you can just jump that number up to about 20-25% of the population, the same unemployment that we had during the 30s, but now we simply don't count those people as it might scare some other people.
America is collapsing quickly, so one naturally wonders why stocks are going up when all indications are that they should be going down. Maybe not you, but that's how I spend my idle hours, which are growing by the day due to my outstanding investment (make that trading) skills, thank you.
Apparently, today's little rally was short-circuited precisely at 2:00 pm because that's when the Fed minutes from the last FOMC meeting were released, and, of course, the Fed said that conditions sucked (they use bigger words) and the geniuses on Wall Street - who apparently were unaware of the horrible economic conditions - decided they should sell.
This market sucks, though. It has no direction except down. The rally of the last 4 weeks was a mirage, a total fraud. The economy sucks, your stocks suck, this country is headed straight into a black hole, and the worst part of it is that because of our corrupt politicians, bankers, CEOs and news media, the American public is largely unaware of the condition. That, however, is expected, as the majority of Americans have college degrees but are dumber than nails about anything that really matters, like the economy, the constitution, the rule of law, etc.
Dow 7,837.11, +47.55 (0.61%)
NASDAQ 1,590.66, +29.05 (1.86%)
S&P 500 825.15, +9.60 (1.18%)
NYSE Composite 5,176.48, +55.81 (1.09%)
On the day, advancing issues actually outdid decliners, 4628-1772, but the one true gauge which has remained constant throughout this episode, stretching back to October of 2007, new lows exceeded new highs, 69-10. Volume was weak, well off levels of just a week ago, another signal that nobody is buying except insiders with positions to protect.
NYSE Volume 1,314,803,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,851,850,000
Commodities also spent most of the day yo-yoing up and down, like there was something to decide as concerns the direction of prices. Oil was down, then up, then finished with a minuscule gain of 23 cents, at $49.38. Whoop-de-do! Gold gained $2.26, but remains at depressed levels, closing at $885.90. Silver also was up 13 cents, to $12.34.
Our fabulous Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said that results of the bank stress tests will not be released until after earnings for the guilty parties are announced, a sure signal that all the books have been fully cooked. Geithner is an obvious obfuscator and a complete, incompetent liar.
The nation has been led by elite crooks and criminals and the American people are paying a huge price for allowing it. In the end, one can only hope that the politicians and bankers will receive the treatment they so richly deserve. While today's tidy gains may look positive to some, they were merely a means for the banksters to steal again from both sides, buyers and sellers.
Stocks were completely out of kilter. The NASDAQ gapped up and stayed up, the Dow underperformed, all manner of technical levels were violated, including the most important support at 7775 on the Dow, but none of that matters since fundamentals don't matter, nor does sentiment, economic reports, earnings or any other measure. The big money makes the markets dance and they are playing all the wrong tunes right now.
The move engulfed yesterday completely, marking the 4th straight day of lower highs and lower lows, leaving investors scratching their heads in search of direction. Don't be fooled. The fundamentals are horrid and the markets will continue to decline. It's just a matter of when and by how much. Dow 5500 is looking pretty good, but 4000 is certainly not out of the question.
Stocks really aren't cheap, considering that in the near future, say six to nine months, most of them will be bankrupt or close to it. Some already are.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Bear Market Rally Built on Fraud
Every day, day after day after day, the sharks on Wall Street do the same thing, over and over and over again. According to the new rules of the game, stocks are suddenly much more attractive at 2:30, or 3:00, or 3:15, or 3:30, without any news, without any economic reports, without any technical rationale, than they were earlier in the day.
This is called manipulation. Manipulation which occurs every day, without fail.
The pattern is so established and so obvious, eventually, the only people trading stocks will be the manipulators themselves, scratching and clawing for scraps, quarter points, half points, here and there, churning, deceiving, shorting stocks they are recommending to their clients and taking every last bit of available capital out of the hands of investors and into the black holes of the banks and brokerages.
It will eventually fail, and fail miserably. The smartest money got out of this market on Friday, the marginally less smart, Monday, and those with any brain cells left, after being slammed and hammered by instability and volatility, got out today.
With each passing day that the seven largest banks in America are allowed to continue doing business under a government-sponsored shroud of solvency - a complete and total fraud which I called as early as 2007, and others called even before me - stocks will be a very dangerous gamble. Those banks - Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and American Express - are all insolvent and have been at least since September of 2008, some even sooner. All have benefited from injections of liquidity, cash and other government largess, courtesy of the US taxpayer, and still are underwater.
Finally, today, cracks began to widen in the flimsy fraud facade of "improving conditions", "signs of recovery", and other such nonsense being thrown around by the insipid morons on CNBC, on corporate boards and in the minds of witless fools who think they can make money in this environment.
After shaving 75 points off its 210-point loss in the final 1 1/2 hours, the markets were met with a torrent of selling in the final ten minutes of trading, pushing stocks close to their lows of the day. This should usher in more selling in days and weeks to come, as the rally built on nothing by hype, hope, lies and greed, completely falls apart. Conditions are not improving overall. They are getting worse, the recession deepening, business conditions deteriorating, credit squeezed to the breaking point, and fear re-emerging as the dominant sentiment.
And signs are clear that the economy will face heightened challenges in the months ahead, if the Business Roundtable Survey of 100 CEOs [PDF] is to be believed. Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed expected sales to decrease over the next six months. 66% expect to decrease capital spending, and 71% expect to lower employment over the same period. THESE GUYS SHOULD KNOW. THEY RUN PUBLICLY-TRADED COMPANIES.
The economic outlook index of the same survey fell to -5 (negative 5.0) in the period, the lowest level ever recorded in the six years of the survey and markedly lower than last quarter's reading of 16.5.
In case you need more proof of Wall Street's fraud and the true condition of the US economy, consider reading this New York Times story which explains how analysts expect earnings to be 37% lower than a year ago - a year which was already down from the previous year for many companies. You will learn that Standard and Poors reported that companies cut a total of $77 billion in dividends in the first quarter of 2009, the worst record of dividend cuts on record.
There was more bad news as the Times of London reported that the IMF may issue a report that bank toxic assets could reach as high as $4 trillion. Their previous estimate was $2.1 trillion. The report is due April 21.
Dow 7,789.56, -186.29 (2.34%)
NASDAQ 1,561.61, -45.10 (2.81%)
S&P 500 815.55, -19.93 (2.39%)
NYSE Composite 5,120.67, -128.81 (2.45%)
On the day, declining issues thumped advancers, 4897-1477. New lows were reached at 75 stocks, while a mere 10 recorded new 52-week highs. Volume was decimated by the lack of buyers. The smart money was moving out. The stubborn and the ill-informed remained in the market as stocks commence a cascade to lower levels. Volume has not been this low in four weeks, prior to the beginning of the massive ramp-up in stocks. Bulls will say the volume points out that today's decline is unimportant, though bears will point to three consecutive gains of lower highs and lower lows as proof that the bear market rally is out of gas.
NYSE Volume 1,261,882,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,868,136,000
Commodities were split, with the metals up and energy and food futures lower. Oil fell $1.90, to $49.15, on increased concerns over slack global demand. Gold ended a three-day losing streak, up $10.50, to $883.30. Silver added 10 cents to $12.21.
Finally, after the bell, Alcoa kicked off earnings season with a 59 cent per share loss, greater than the 56-cent loss analysts were expecting. It was the second straight quarter the company has posted a loss.
And, late in the day, news leaked out that General Motors (GM) was in "intense and earnest" preparations of a bankruptcy filing, in case the company fails to meet the requirements of the Obama administration's stringent restructuring plan.
I could not make this stuff up, folks. We, as a nation, are headed for economic hell.
This is called manipulation. Manipulation which occurs every day, without fail.
The pattern is so established and so obvious, eventually, the only people trading stocks will be the manipulators themselves, scratching and clawing for scraps, quarter points, half points, here and there, churning, deceiving, shorting stocks they are recommending to their clients and taking every last bit of available capital out of the hands of investors and into the black holes of the banks and brokerages.
It will eventually fail, and fail miserably. The smartest money got out of this market on Friday, the marginally less smart, Monday, and those with any brain cells left, after being slammed and hammered by instability and volatility, got out today.
With each passing day that the seven largest banks in America are allowed to continue doing business under a government-sponsored shroud of solvency - a complete and total fraud which I called as early as 2007, and others called even before me - stocks will be a very dangerous gamble. Those banks - Bank of America, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and American Express - are all insolvent and have been at least since September of 2008, some even sooner. All have benefited from injections of liquidity, cash and other government largess, courtesy of the US taxpayer, and still are underwater.
Finally, today, cracks began to widen in the flimsy fraud facade of "improving conditions", "signs of recovery", and other such nonsense being thrown around by the insipid morons on CNBC, on corporate boards and in the minds of witless fools who think they can make money in this environment.
After shaving 75 points off its 210-point loss in the final 1 1/2 hours, the markets were met with a torrent of selling in the final ten minutes of trading, pushing stocks close to their lows of the day. This should usher in more selling in days and weeks to come, as the rally built on nothing by hype, hope, lies and greed, completely falls apart. Conditions are not improving overall. They are getting worse, the recession deepening, business conditions deteriorating, credit squeezed to the breaking point, and fear re-emerging as the dominant sentiment.
And signs are clear that the economy will face heightened challenges in the months ahead, if the Business Roundtable Survey of 100 CEOs [PDF] is to be believed. Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed expected sales to decrease over the next six months. 66% expect to decrease capital spending, and 71% expect to lower employment over the same period. THESE GUYS SHOULD KNOW. THEY RUN PUBLICLY-TRADED COMPANIES.
The economic outlook index of the same survey fell to -5 (negative 5.0) in the period, the lowest level ever recorded in the six years of the survey and markedly lower than last quarter's reading of 16.5.
In case you need more proof of Wall Street's fraud and the true condition of the US economy, consider reading this New York Times story which explains how analysts expect earnings to be 37% lower than a year ago - a year which was already down from the previous year for many companies. You will learn that Standard and Poors reported that companies cut a total of $77 billion in dividends in the first quarter of 2009, the worst record of dividend cuts on record.
There was more bad news as the Times of London reported that the IMF may issue a report that bank toxic assets could reach as high as $4 trillion. Their previous estimate was $2.1 trillion. The report is due April 21.
Dow 7,789.56, -186.29 (2.34%)
NASDAQ 1,561.61, -45.10 (2.81%)
S&P 500 815.55, -19.93 (2.39%)
NYSE Composite 5,120.67, -128.81 (2.45%)
On the day, declining issues thumped advancers, 4897-1477. New lows were reached at 75 stocks, while a mere 10 recorded new 52-week highs. Volume was decimated by the lack of buyers. The smart money was moving out. The stubborn and the ill-informed remained in the market as stocks commence a cascade to lower levels. Volume has not been this low in four weeks, prior to the beginning of the massive ramp-up in stocks. Bulls will say the volume points out that today's decline is unimportant, though bears will point to three consecutive gains of lower highs and lower lows as proof that the bear market rally is out of gas.
NYSE Volume 1,261,882,000
NASDAQ Volume 1,868,136,000
Commodities were split, with the metals up and energy and food futures lower. Oil fell $1.90, to $49.15, on increased concerns over slack global demand. Gold ended a three-day losing streak, up $10.50, to $883.30. Silver added 10 cents to $12.21.
Finally, after the bell, Alcoa kicked off earnings season with a 59 cent per share loss, greater than the 56-cent loss analysts were expecting. It was the second straight quarter the company has posted a loss.
And, late in the day, news leaked out that General Motors (GM) was in "intense and earnest" preparations of a bankruptcy filing, in case the company fails to meet the requirements of the Obama administration's stringent restructuring plan.
I could not make this stuff up, folks. We, as a nation, are headed for economic hell.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Wall Street Crooks Steal from Both Sides
Upon which side of the debate do you fall? Do you believe this is a bear market rally or the beginning of a new bull?
Whatever your opinion, the big money which flows from the major brokerages has you covered. Today was a serious case in point of how the brokerages steal from both sides. Stocks began the day with losses, hit bottom at 12:30 and gained the rest of the day, finishing close to the best levels of the session, with minor losses.
The Dow, in particular, outperformed the other indices by a wide margin, likely owing to the fact that three of the major failed, insolvent banking institutions - Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup - are included in the average. Throw in American Express, General Motors and General Electric and you have what prosecutors would call means and motive for manipulating the Dow currency close to the break-even line, which is exactly what occurred on Monday.
Dow 7,975.85, -41.74 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 1,606.71, -15.16 (0.93%)
S&P 500 835.48, -7.02 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 5,250.10, -68.65 (1.29%)
Apparently, financial outlooks were poor in the morning, but markedly improved in the afternoon. I prefer to believe that the major brokerages, which can exert as much or as little influence as they like, prefer their markets to be rigged in their favor. In any case, what the charts are yelling, loud and clear, is that the rally of recent weeks has run out of steam, having hit a trading and volume top on Thursday of last week and followed up with what amounts to churning the following two days.
Of course, I've been proven wrong before and there's a high probability that the Wall Street fixers will say, "to hell with the technicals," which are pointing upwards at heavy resistance, and just pump the indices right on through, declaring a new bull market, the end of banking problems and a new day in America.
There are more than a few detractors to the view, though the general tone of the lap-dog media is that conditions are improving, even though the only evidence of that are a couple of minor bounces off bottoms by a few random economic indicators and the actual stock market rally itself (which you can't count as a sign it's getting better and also use as the ultimate discounting mechanism).
Looking at market internals, it is notable that declining issues outnumbered advancing ones, 4497-1963, a 5-2 margin, which is much worse than the headline numbers suggest. Additionally, new low continued ahead of new highs, 66-18, a narrow edge, but one that has yet to flip over after favoring the new lows on a daily basis for more than 16 months.
Volume was down again, as it was Friday, suggesting a dearth of buying enthusiasm, not surprising after the giant run-up which has stretched to four weeks without interruption.
NYSE Volume 6,221,203,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,976,220,500
Commodities traded in a more realistic fashion, with oil down $1.46, to $51.05, though it traded below $50 briefly during the day. Gold's losses continued to mount, losing $24.50, to $872.80. Silver was also beaten down 63 cents, to finish at $12.11, a near-term low and a distinct buying opportunity.
Some have questioned my penchant for silver under $13.00 an ounce, so here's my rationale, simply put: At $13.80 per ounce, 90% silver coins, of which are the widest variety in the US, have a melt value exactly 10 times their face value, so it's an easy calculation, but, more importantly, if US greenbacks lose their value entirely, silver coins may become the currency of choice, and the 10X face value may become the accepted rate of exchange, though there's some room for thinking that the number could be 20X face value, which would be even better.
In any case, buying at $13/oz. or less, you will eventually be a winner when the US economy fully disintegrates. Whether it's by currency devaluation and resultant inflation, or, runaway deflation, silver coins will still maintain solid value either here or abroad. Don't get me wrong. I'd love to buy more pre-1964 Washington quarters and Morgan and Peace dollars at $6/oz., though sadly, those days seem to be long gone.
The metals and most other commodities continue to display classic deflation conditions. In such a scenario, investors and traders alike are victims of slack demand and consequent oversupply. The argument for deflation continues to gain traction as the Fed and treasury desperately try to inflate, though their efforts are largely staunched because they continue to throw money down the black hole that consists of the nation's five largest banks, plus AIG.
Another does of reality, courtesy former bank regulator, William K. Black:
An exceptional interview with Mr. Black was aired this past weekend on Bill Moyers Journal
Whatever your opinion, the big money which flows from the major brokerages has you covered. Today was a serious case in point of how the brokerages steal from both sides. Stocks began the day with losses, hit bottom at 12:30 and gained the rest of the day, finishing close to the best levels of the session, with minor losses.
The Dow, in particular, outperformed the other indices by a wide margin, likely owing to the fact that three of the major failed, insolvent banking institutions - Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup - are included in the average. Throw in American Express, General Motors and General Electric and you have what prosecutors would call means and motive for manipulating the Dow currency close to the break-even line, which is exactly what occurred on Monday.
Dow 7,975.85, -41.74 (0.52%)
NASDAQ 1,606.71, -15.16 (0.93%)
S&P 500 835.48, -7.02 (0.83%)
NYSE Composite 5,250.10, -68.65 (1.29%)
Apparently, financial outlooks were poor in the morning, but markedly improved in the afternoon. I prefer to believe that the major brokerages, which can exert as much or as little influence as they like, prefer their markets to be rigged in their favor. In any case, what the charts are yelling, loud and clear, is that the rally of recent weeks has run out of steam, having hit a trading and volume top on Thursday of last week and followed up with what amounts to churning the following two days.
Of course, I've been proven wrong before and there's a high probability that the Wall Street fixers will say, "to hell with the technicals," which are pointing upwards at heavy resistance, and just pump the indices right on through, declaring a new bull market, the end of banking problems and a new day in America.
There are more than a few detractors to the view, though the general tone of the lap-dog media is that conditions are improving, even though the only evidence of that are a couple of minor bounces off bottoms by a few random economic indicators and the actual stock market rally itself (which you can't count as a sign it's getting better and also use as the ultimate discounting mechanism).
Looking at market internals, it is notable that declining issues outnumbered advancing ones, 4497-1963, a 5-2 margin, which is much worse than the headline numbers suggest. Additionally, new low continued ahead of new highs, 66-18, a narrow edge, but one that has yet to flip over after favoring the new lows on a daily basis for more than 16 months.
Volume was down again, as it was Friday, suggesting a dearth of buying enthusiasm, not surprising after the giant run-up which has stretched to four weeks without interruption.
NYSE Volume 6,221,203,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,976,220,500
Commodities traded in a more realistic fashion, with oil down $1.46, to $51.05, though it traded below $50 briefly during the day. Gold's losses continued to mount, losing $24.50, to $872.80. Silver was also beaten down 63 cents, to finish at $12.11, a near-term low and a distinct buying opportunity.
Some have questioned my penchant for silver under $13.00 an ounce, so here's my rationale, simply put: At $13.80 per ounce, 90% silver coins, of which are the widest variety in the US, have a melt value exactly 10 times their face value, so it's an easy calculation, but, more importantly, if US greenbacks lose their value entirely, silver coins may become the currency of choice, and the 10X face value may become the accepted rate of exchange, though there's some room for thinking that the number could be 20X face value, which would be even better.
In any case, buying at $13/oz. or less, you will eventually be a winner when the US economy fully disintegrates. Whether it's by currency devaluation and resultant inflation, or, runaway deflation, silver coins will still maintain solid value either here or abroad. Don't get me wrong. I'd love to buy more pre-1964 Washington quarters and Morgan and Peace dollars at $6/oz., though sadly, those days seem to be long gone.
The metals and most other commodities continue to display classic deflation conditions. In such a scenario, investors and traders alike are victims of slack demand and consequent oversupply. The argument for deflation continues to gain traction as the Fed and treasury desperately try to inflate, though their efforts are largely staunched because they continue to throw money down the black hole that consists of the nation's five largest banks, plus AIG.
Another does of reality, courtesy former bank regulator, William K. Black:
An exceptional interview with Mr. Black was aired this past weekend on Bill Moyers Journal
Friday, April 3, 2009
Wall Street Smoking Crack
The crack dealers working the area of lower Manhattan must be flush with cash because it appears certain that the brokers, dealers, wheeler-dealers, scam artists, cheats liars, high muckety-muck, junkies, flunkies, lunkheads, losers and lowlives of all stripes are consuming copious amounts of the stuff.
After a multi-week stock market run of between 20 and 25%, depending on your index of choice, a week chock-full of eyebrow-raising economic reports, a failed attempt at worldwide order and financial diplomacy at the G20, and the worst unemployment in 25 years, the masters of the financial universe decided to keep pushing prices higher, despite the aforementioned data and news, and the imminent revelations from corporate quarterly reports beginning next week.
No matter how anyone tries to justify the numbers, a loss of more than 2 million jobs just in the first quarter of this year is not good news. Stocks should have been headed lower, not higher. Watching the indices crawl forward, it seems that the charts must be from some foreign planet, not ours, which is mired amid the throes of a deepening - not improving - financial breakdown.
Apparently, the wizards of Wall Street see things differently. A slowing economy is a fine one to made ludicrous bets into according to their actions. Stimulus, bailouts, Ponzi schemes, a deteriorating housing market and job losses creates the perfect investing climate according to these geniuses. They are smoking some very powerful dope down there.
Stocks traded in tight ranges throughout the session. Today's action could have been due to indecision, consolidation or manipulation, but it was probably a little bit of each. In any case, nothing moved enough to raise anyone's blood pressure much. It was an all-around tough day for day-traders and short timers.
Dow 8,017.59, +39.51 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 1,621.87, +19.24 (1.20%)
S&P 500 842.50 8.12 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 5,318.75, +51.65 (0.98%)
Stocks finished with their 4th straight week to the upside. That's a pretty nifty record in the middle of economic calamity and hardly believable. Wall Street insiders realize that another precipitous decline in stock values could lead to some very ugly consequences including widespread firings of top banking professionals, prosecutions and jailings of same, social unrest, and a near-complete breakdown of the social contract and economic death. Thus, the rally must continue, or, at least appear to be solid. It's just another sham being played by the monied interests of Wall Street and Washington and being dribbled along by the feigning financial press.
On the day, advancers beat decliners, 4091-2378, though new lows continued their advantage over new highs, 77-16. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,484,215,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,140,955,000
To amplify Wall Street's insanity, read on. This hardly warranted mention on the airwaves, unbelievably.
Self-dealing made simple: The same banks which packaged the "toxic" mortgage loans - for which they received government bailout money - are now looking into buying the same assets under Treasury's Private-Public Partnership Investment Plan.
Yes, you read that right. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs want to be buyers of each other's near-worthless paper, taking advantage of the government's largesse in the form of 14-1 leverage. These same banks would like to buy up each other's bad loans with roughly 15% down, the balance financed by the government, or, read correctly, the badly duped and without recourse US taxpayer.
Not only is this the worst self-dealing ever witnessed on the planet, but it also reeks of the kind of scheme Bernie Madoff recently re-popularized: PONZI. All of this will likely be swept neatly under the rug with help of the duplicitous Treasury Secretary, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Liar-King, President Barack Obama.
I know I predicted this would happen when I first heard of the proposal, so why should I - or anyone - be shocked? Our government has one purpose now, simply to serve the wishes of their puppet-masters on Wall Street. The whole bunch of them - from the President and congress to the bank CEOs - should be tried on charges of grand larceny and treason, because stealing from the very people you swore to protect and defend is nothing less.
Commodities dithered throughout the day. Oil closed 13 cents lower, at $52.51. Gold fell another $11.60, to $897.30. Silver shed 29 cents to finish the week at $12.74.
And here's a dose of honesty:
Have a nice weekend.
After a multi-week stock market run of between 20 and 25%, depending on your index of choice, a week chock-full of eyebrow-raising economic reports, a failed attempt at worldwide order and financial diplomacy at the G20, and the worst unemployment in 25 years, the masters of the financial universe decided to keep pushing prices higher, despite the aforementioned data and news, and the imminent revelations from corporate quarterly reports beginning next week.
No matter how anyone tries to justify the numbers, a loss of more than 2 million jobs just in the first quarter of this year is not good news. Stocks should have been headed lower, not higher. Watching the indices crawl forward, it seems that the charts must be from some foreign planet, not ours, which is mired amid the throes of a deepening - not improving - financial breakdown.
Apparently, the wizards of Wall Street see things differently. A slowing economy is a fine one to made ludicrous bets into according to their actions. Stimulus, bailouts, Ponzi schemes, a deteriorating housing market and job losses creates the perfect investing climate according to these geniuses. They are smoking some very powerful dope down there.
Stocks traded in tight ranges throughout the session. Today's action could have been due to indecision, consolidation or manipulation, but it was probably a little bit of each. In any case, nothing moved enough to raise anyone's blood pressure much. It was an all-around tough day for day-traders and short timers.
Dow 8,017.59, +39.51 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 1,621.87, +19.24 (1.20%)
S&P 500 842.50 8.12 (0.97%)
NYSE Composite 5,318.75, +51.65 (0.98%)
Stocks finished with their 4th straight week to the upside. That's a pretty nifty record in the middle of economic calamity and hardly believable. Wall Street insiders realize that another precipitous decline in stock values could lead to some very ugly consequences including widespread firings of top banking professionals, prosecutions and jailings of same, social unrest, and a near-complete breakdown of the social contract and economic death. Thus, the rally must continue, or, at least appear to be solid. It's just another sham being played by the monied interests of Wall Street and Washington and being dribbled along by the feigning financial press.
On the day, advancers beat decliners, 4091-2378, though new lows continued their advantage over new highs, 77-16. Volume was moderate.
NYSE Volume 1,484,215,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,140,955,000
To amplify Wall Street's insanity, read on. This hardly warranted mention on the airwaves, unbelievably.
Self-dealing made simple: The same banks which packaged the "toxic" mortgage loans - for which they received government bailout money - are now looking into buying the same assets under Treasury's Private-Public Partnership Investment Plan.
Yes, you read that right. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs want to be buyers of each other's near-worthless paper, taking advantage of the government's largesse in the form of 14-1 leverage. These same banks would like to buy up each other's bad loans with roughly 15% down, the balance financed by the government, or, read correctly, the badly duped and without recourse US taxpayer.
Not only is this the worst self-dealing ever witnessed on the planet, but it also reeks of the kind of scheme Bernie Madoff recently re-popularized: PONZI. All of this will likely be swept neatly under the rug with help of the duplicitous Treasury Secretary, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Liar-King, President Barack Obama.
I know I predicted this would happen when I first heard of the proposal, so why should I - or anyone - be shocked? Our government has one purpose now, simply to serve the wishes of their puppet-masters on Wall Street. The whole bunch of them - from the President and congress to the bank CEOs - should be tried on charges of grand larceny and treason, because stealing from the very people you swore to protect and defend is nothing less.
Commodities dithered throughout the day. Oil closed 13 cents lower, at $52.51. Gold fell another $11.60, to $897.30. Silver shed 29 cents to finish the week at $12.74.
And here's a dose of honesty:
Have a nice weekend.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Was Today the End of the Bull Run?
Markets boomed worldwide on Thursday as the Group of 20 met, promised to pass along $1 Trillion to the IMF and the World Bank, promised to improve regulations on banks and other financial solutions and left jolly London amid smiles, niceties and bright lights.
Naturally, nothing will really change. Twenty leaders, from the world's largest and best-developed economies, meeting over tea, crumpets, dinner and wide tables can accomplish less than nothing, and this group surely succeeded in one regard: they put on a very nice show. The reality of the situation is that the United States, Europe and the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are as far apart - and the animosity just as great - as before they staged their little confidence-fest.
Back in America, where real people set about to do real work, another 669,000 people filed for unemployment in the past week. The number of people continuing to receive weekly or bi-weekly unemployment checks set another record at 5.8 million. Once again, Wall Street completely ignored the dire employment numbers and all of the evil implications behind a growing number of idle hands in America, and shot straight up at the open, reaching heights not seen since early February.
The Dow surged past 8000, the NASDAQ pushed above 1600 and the S&P 500 touched, for an instant, the bottom of the clouds of heaven, hitting 845 just before 1:00, coincidentally about the same time the G20 meeting was concluding in London. Therein laid the crucial test - at 845 on the S&P - a key inflection point at which the index has closed on four separate occasions recently: on December 4, January 27, January 29 and February 5. Since then, the S&P fell to 676 (March 9) and hit it again today. It took 21 sessions to bottom out and another 18 to get back to 845, so, if you are of the camp looking for the perfect V bottom, this fits it to a tee.
Two problems arise immediately, however, and a slew of them continue in the background. First, the index did not close at the magic number; indeed, it ended the day 11 points below it. Second, the late day selling seemed to signal the end of a mammoth three-day effort just to reach for the stars. And, of course, with the G20 meeting now behind us, and the government's non-farms payroll data due out tomorrow morning, one has to wonder just how long Wall Street can continue to ignore the massive numbers losing jobs every day, week and month. Besides that, we are poised just days away from important first quarter corporate reports, of which every indication points to it being a very dull quarter for a wide swath of companies.
All this week, investors shrugged off economic data, most of which consisted of basic bottom scraping, calling it "improvement" as many of the numbers being tossed about beat expert expectations, though marginally. A more realistic reading might conclude that these numbers suggest that we may have hit a bottom and that it could be only a temporary one.
More pessimistic minds would contend that the figures released this week amounted to nothing more than statistical rounding and do not indicate any kind of trend, and that the economy is ready to dive once again. In any case, stocks have climbed the proverbial "wall of worry" all the way to the top, to a point a which any more gains will begin to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and that the bears are dead meat. Sadly, for the optimists, bears do not go into hibernation with the advent of Spring. In fact, they are now hungry for more red meat.
One other factor to consider. The overall volume of today's run was quite literally off the charts, the highest volume seen since investors were selling as fast as they could. Today stocks were changing hands at a lightning pace, indicative of a blow-off top. We will find out whether or not it was the end of the bull run in less than 18 hours, when the markets are open for the final time this week.
Dow 7,978.08, +216.48 (2.79%)
NASDAQ 1,602.63, +51.03 (3.29%)
S&P 500 834.38, +23.30 (2.87%)
NYSE Composite 5,267.10, +181.34 (3.57%)
Advancers beat down decliners handily, 5479-1140, but despite the huge gains of the past three sessions, new lows did not give up their advantage over new highs, beating them once more, 89-42. While the gap has narrowed significantly, and the number of new highs continued to grow, this indicator has yet to roll over. If and when it does, and if it is able to maintain a bias to the opposite, then we may begin looking at the end of the bear market, not now, and not any sooner.
NYSE Volume 1,874,517,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,820,056,000
Taking a peek inside the Dow at some of the components, we note that 28 were gainers and just two, losers: Microsoft (MSFT) and Pfizer (PFE). leadership came from basic materials and industrials, with Alcoa (AA), Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD), General Motors (GM) and United Technologies (UTX) sporting the best percentage gains. Banks were subdued, with JP Morgan Chase up a mere 0.07 on the day. One outlier was Disney (DIS), which gained upwards of 7%.
As far as concerns the banks, they were handed another get-out-of-jail-free card today as the FASB eased mark-to-market accounting rules, allowing the institutions with the most toxic assets to reprice those entities in more favorable terms. In other words, it's a return to fairyland accounting for tier 3 assets. Tra-la-la.
Oil ramped up $4.25, to $52.64. Gold hit the skids, losing $18.80, to $908.90. Silver gained 5 cents to $13.03.
Stocks will almost surely record their 4th straight week of gains when the indices close tomorrow. How much of a gain depends on a number of factors, not the least of which being how eager investors are about locking in profits over the weekend and how seriously those same investors view the employment picture.
Naturally, nothing will really change. Twenty leaders, from the world's largest and best-developed economies, meeting over tea, crumpets, dinner and wide tables can accomplish less than nothing, and this group surely succeeded in one regard: they put on a very nice show. The reality of the situation is that the United States, Europe and the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China) are as far apart - and the animosity just as great - as before they staged their little confidence-fest.
Back in America, where real people set about to do real work, another 669,000 people filed for unemployment in the past week. The number of people continuing to receive weekly or bi-weekly unemployment checks set another record at 5.8 million. Once again, Wall Street completely ignored the dire employment numbers and all of the evil implications behind a growing number of idle hands in America, and shot straight up at the open, reaching heights not seen since early February.
The Dow surged past 8000, the NASDAQ pushed above 1600 and the S&P 500 touched, for an instant, the bottom of the clouds of heaven, hitting 845 just before 1:00, coincidentally about the same time the G20 meeting was concluding in London. Therein laid the crucial test - at 845 on the S&P - a key inflection point at which the index has closed on four separate occasions recently: on December 4, January 27, January 29 and February 5. Since then, the S&P fell to 676 (March 9) and hit it again today. It took 21 sessions to bottom out and another 18 to get back to 845, so, if you are of the camp looking for the perfect V bottom, this fits it to a tee.
Two problems arise immediately, however, and a slew of them continue in the background. First, the index did not close at the magic number; indeed, it ended the day 11 points below it. Second, the late day selling seemed to signal the end of a mammoth three-day effort just to reach for the stars. And, of course, with the G20 meeting now behind us, and the government's non-farms payroll data due out tomorrow morning, one has to wonder just how long Wall Street can continue to ignore the massive numbers losing jobs every day, week and month. Besides that, we are poised just days away from important first quarter corporate reports, of which every indication points to it being a very dull quarter for a wide swath of companies.
All this week, investors shrugged off economic data, most of which consisted of basic bottom scraping, calling it "improvement" as many of the numbers being tossed about beat expert expectations, though marginally. A more realistic reading might conclude that these numbers suggest that we may have hit a bottom and that it could be only a temporary one.
More pessimistic minds would contend that the figures released this week amounted to nothing more than statistical rounding and do not indicate any kind of trend, and that the economy is ready to dive once again. In any case, stocks have climbed the proverbial "wall of worry" all the way to the top, to a point a which any more gains will begin to confirm that a new bull market has begun, and that the bears are dead meat. Sadly, for the optimists, bears do not go into hibernation with the advent of Spring. In fact, they are now hungry for more red meat.
One other factor to consider. The overall volume of today's run was quite literally off the charts, the highest volume seen since investors were selling as fast as they could. Today stocks were changing hands at a lightning pace, indicative of a blow-off top. We will find out whether or not it was the end of the bull run in less than 18 hours, when the markets are open for the final time this week.
Dow 7,978.08, +216.48 (2.79%)
NASDAQ 1,602.63, +51.03 (3.29%)
S&P 500 834.38, +23.30 (2.87%)
NYSE Composite 5,267.10, +181.34 (3.57%)
Advancers beat down decliners handily, 5479-1140, but despite the huge gains of the past three sessions, new lows did not give up their advantage over new highs, beating them once more, 89-42. While the gap has narrowed significantly, and the number of new highs continued to grow, this indicator has yet to roll over. If and when it does, and if it is able to maintain a bias to the opposite, then we may begin looking at the end of the bear market, not now, and not any sooner.
NYSE Volume 1,874,517,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,820,056,000
Taking a peek inside the Dow at some of the components, we note that 28 were gainers and just two, losers: Microsoft (MSFT) and Pfizer (PFE). leadership came from basic materials and industrials, with Alcoa (AA), Caterpillar (CAT), DuPont (DD), General Motors (GM) and United Technologies (UTX) sporting the best percentage gains. Banks were subdued, with JP Morgan Chase up a mere 0.07 on the day. One outlier was Disney (DIS), which gained upwards of 7%.
As far as concerns the banks, they were handed another get-out-of-jail-free card today as the FASB eased mark-to-market accounting rules, allowing the institutions with the most toxic assets to reprice those entities in more favorable terms. In other words, it's a return to fairyland accounting for tier 3 assets. Tra-la-la.
Oil ramped up $4.25, to $52.64. Gold hit the skids, losing $18.80, to $908.90. Silver gained 5 cents to $13.03.
Stocks will almost surely record their 4th straight week of gains when the indices close tomorrow. How much of a gain depends on a number of factors, not the least of which being how eager investors are about locking in profits over the weekend and how seriously those same investors view the employment picture.
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