Yesterday in this space, it was reported that the stock market was ripe for a major sell-off and that's exactly what happened after the weekly unemployment claims data and a worse-than-expected ISM report hit the Street.
Stocks opened lower and stayed down, erasing Wednesday's bottom by 10:00 am and never recovering. Eventually, all the major averages suffered their worst losses since July 2nd when the Dow was battered 223 points and the S&P declined 27, the same as today. The NASDAQ suffered worse than its counterparts, falling 3.06%, nearly matching the worst one-day loss since the start of the current rally, on April 20.
Thursday's action marked the sixth decline for the market in the past seven sessions. Economic news has been uniformly weak over the past two weeks, leading investors to take profits or abandon positions altogether.
Dow 9,509.28, -203.00 (2.09%)
Nasdaq 2,057.48, -64.94 (3.06%)
S&P 500 1,029.85, -27.23 (2.58%)
NYSE Composite 6,718.05, -192.83 (2.79%)
Simple indicators confirmed the widespread carnage. Declining issues outnumbered advancers, 5314-1139. New highs led new lows, 205-51, though the margin of difference has declined markedly over the past three sessions. Volume was very high, indicating that the losses are not about to end here, especially since the indices ended at their lows of the day.
NYSE Volume 6,905,833,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,751,787,500
Oil finished the day 21 cents higher, at $70.82, but that bucked the overall trend. Gold lost $8.60, to $1,000.70. Silver was down 22 cents, to $16.44.
With the September non-farm payroll data set to appear at 8:30 am, it was obvious that many investors did not want to get in front of that number. All indications are that it will not meet expectations of -175,000. Something in the range of -190,000 to -215,000 would be more likely.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Getting Ready for the Big One
Markets were literally all over the map on Wednesday, up in the early going after shrugging off the ADP September Private Sector Employment figures - a loss of 254,000 jobs, worse than expected - and getting a bit of a boost from the final, revised 2nd quarter GDP report of -0.7% until the Chicago Purchasing Manager's Report for September came in at 46.1, far weaker than the expected 52.0, sent stocks into a dizzying tailspin.
The bottom was reached early in the day - 9608 on the Dow, a drop of 134 points - and the markets staged a spirited rally until finally regaining all of the losses and going positive at 1:00 pm. The highs for the day were attained shortly thereafter, and stocks gyrated to a negative close, though much better than early indications.
Dow 9,712.28, -29.92 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,122.42, -1.62 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,057.07, -3.54 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite 6,910.88, -15.94 (0.23%)
Despite moderation into the close, the markets appear to be setting up for a massive sell-off prior to earnings season. A spate of negative economic news cannot be ignored much longer, nor can the fact that stocks are up over 50% from their March bottoms. A correction is overdue considering all the variables involved and it could be quite large and not easily countered.
The last two major sell-offs (see chart here) were whoppers. On August 17, and again on September 1, the Dow dropped 186 points in each instance. In each case, the big drops followed days in which stocks had fallen and recovered off their lows, such as today.
If history is to be our guide, a drop of 200 points should be in the cards. Today's lows were severe, and the recovery unjustified, aided only by weakness in the US dollar, which does not account for individual stock gains, nor is that kind of pricing model sustainable nor realistic. Markets, at some point, have got to go back to fundamentals, and they are sorely lacking in almost every sector. Earnings have been good the past two quarters due to deft cost-cutting and downsizing. It is about time for the markets to grow up, with investors looking for top-line growth on increased sales and profit margins.
Unfortunately, as we head into 3rd quarter earnings season, most companies have not exhibited the kind of performances that would denote sustained growth from increased sales and volume. This really could be the end of the line for the nearly 7-month old rally, one of the best ever. It is difficult to believe that any money manager would be holding strong positive positions heading into Friday's Non-farm payroll report, much less hold long positions before tomorrow morning's Initial claims (8:30 am) and ISM index (10:00 am) readings. Judging by the direction of recent reports, both could be worse than expected, and the non-farms payroll number could be the ultimate market killer, so, instead of one, neat, massive decline, stocks may be in for a double dip, which could derail the rally and finally decouple stocks from oil and the dollar.
Extreme caution is urged.
On the day, the simple indicators were pointing toward more carnage. Decliners beat advancing issues handily, 3817-2644, and new highs bested new lows, though by a declining margin, 330-50. It should also be noted that new lows should be very subdued due to the ravages of the past year.
Significantly, volume was at the highest level in nearly two weeks.
NYSE Volume 7,226,821,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,543,707,250
Commodity traders made the most of the weakened dollar, as oil gained an outlandish $3.90 per barrel, to close at $70.61. Gold popped $14.90, to $1,009.30, while silver gained 48 cents per ounce, to $16.66.
With more data concerning employment and the economy dead ahead, the indications are for a strong influence of data on stocks, much of which has been negative, or, at best, an aberration in the general upward slope.
The remainder of this week and the early part of next appear to be full of pitfalls for short-term investors.
The bottom was reached early in the day - 9608 on the Dow, a drop of 134 points - and the markets staged a spirited rally until finally regaining all of the losses and going positive at 1:00 pm. The highs for the day were attained shortly thereafter, and stocks gyrated to a negative close, though much better than early indications.
Dow 9,712.28, -29.92 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 2,122.42, -1.62 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,057.07, -3.54 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite 6,910.88, -15.94 (0.23%)
Despite moderation into the close, the markets appear to be setting up for a massive sell-off prior to earnings season. A spate of negative economic news cannot be ignored much longer, nor can the fact that stocks are up over 50% from their March bottoms. A correction is overdue considering all the variables involved and it could be quite large and not easily countered.
The last two major sell-offs (see chart here) were whoppers. On August 17, and again on September 1, the Dow dropped 186 points in each instance. In each case, the big drops followed days in which stocks had fallen and recovered off their lows, such as today.
If history is to be our guide, a drop of 200 points should be in the cards. Today's lows were severe, and the recovery unjustified, aided only by weakness in the US dollar, which does not account for individual stock gains, nor is that kind of pricing model sustainable nor realistic. Markets, at some point, have got to go back to fundamentals, and they are sorely lacking in almost every sector. Earnings have been good the past two quarters due to deft cost-cutting and downsizing. It is about time for the markets to grow up, with investors looking for top-line growth on increased sales and profit margins.
Unfortunately, as we head into 3rd quarter earnings season, most companies have not exhibited the kind of performances that would denote sustained growth from increased sales and volume. This really could be the end of the line for the nearly 7-month old rally, one of the best ever. It is difficult to believe that any money manager would be holding strong positive positions heading into Friday's Non-farm payroll report, much less hold long positions before tomorrow morning's Initial claims (8:30 am) and ISM index (10:00 am) readings. Judging by the direction of recent reports, both could be worse than expected, and the non-farms payroll number could be the ultimate market killer, so, instead of one, neat, massive decline, stocks may be in for a double dip, which could derail the rally and finally decouple stocks from oil and the dollar.
Extreme caution is urged.
On the day, the simple indicators were pointing toward more carnage. Decliners beat advancing issues handily, 3817-2644, and new highs bested new lows, though by a declining margin, 330-50. It should also be noted that new lows should be very subdued due to the ravages of the past year.
Significantly, volume was at the highest level in nearly two weeks.
NYSE Volume 7,226,821,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,543,707,250
Commodity traders made the most of the weakened dollar, as oil gained an outlandish $3.90 per barrel, to close at $70.61. Gold popped $14.90, to $1,009.30, while silver gained 48 cents per ounce, to $16.66.
With more data concerning employment and the economy dead ahead, the indications are for a strong influence of data on stocks, much of which has been negative, or, at best, an aberration in the general upward slope.
The remainder of this week and the early part of next appear to be full of pitfalls for short-term investors.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
A Day of Giving Back
Stocks snapped back into negative territory following more mixed messages on the economy.
At the open, investors were encouraged by data from the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which showed a 1.2% gain in July over the prior month, the best month-over-month showing in 4 years. Though house prices nationally were in a decline of 13.1% year-over-year according to the survey, it was a better number than expected.
Following the housing data, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell to 53.1 in September from 54.5. This report contradicted last week's positive report on consumer confidence issued by the University of Michigan sentiment survey.
Nonetheless, investors were taking profits in front of tomorrow's ADP Employment Survey, which has served as a proxy for the monthly Non-farm payroll data released by the government the first Friday of each month. Stocks finished at or near their lowest levels of the day, which usually indicates a good deal of unease, though these indicators have been less-than-reliable on a day-to-day basis recently.
Dow 9,742.20, -47.16 (0.48%)
NASDAQ 2,124.04, -6.70 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,060.61, -2.37 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 6,926.82, -12.94 (0.19%)
Market simple indicators were mixed on the day, with declining issues beating out advancing ones, 3517-2919. New highs improved, to 323, while new lows continued to contract, to 45. Volume was light to moderate, with many market participants taking a wait-and-see attitude in advance of the employment figures which will take center stage Wednesday through Friday.
NYSE Volume 5,592,967,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,094,364,375
Commodity traders took the same laid-back approach on the session. Oil slipped 16 cents, to $66.71; gold gained 30 cents, to finish at $994.40. Silver shed 2 cents to end at $16.18.
There was scant data with which to move the markets on Tuesday, though tomorrow will be another story altogether. Analysts are seeking job losses in the ADP report of about 200,000 for the month of September, and Non-farm payrolls of about the same level, though a figure of -180,000 would certainly be a tonic for the markets.
As mixed as economic data has been over the past two weeks, it's difficult to portend a particular outcome, and the markets surely aren't offering any clues.
At the open, investors were encouraged by data from the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, which showed a 1.2% gain in July over the prior month, the best month-over-month showing in 4 years. Though house prices nationally were in a decline of 13.1% year-over-year according to the survey, it was a better number than expected.
"Combined sales of new and existing homes have risen for four out of the last five months, signaling the worst of the housing crisis is over."
Following the housing data, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell to 53.1 in September from 54.5. This report contradicted last week's positive report on consumer confidence issued by the University of Michigan sentiment survey.
Nonetheless, investors were taking profits in front of tomorrow's ADP Employment Survey, which has served as a proxy for the monthly Non-farm payroll data released by the government the first Friday of each month. Stocks finished at or near their lowest levels of the day, which usually indicates a good deal of unease, though these indicators have been less-than-reliable on a day-to-day basis recently.
Dow 9,742.20, -47.16 (0.48%)
NASDAQ 2,124.04, -6.70 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,060.61, -2.37 (0.22%)
NYSE Composite 6,926.82, -12.94 (0.19%)
Market simple indicators were mixed on the day, with declining issues beating out advancing ones, 3517-2919. New highs improved, to 323, while new lows continued to contract, to 45. Volume was light to moderate, with many market participants taking a wait-and-see attitude in advance of the employment figures which will take center stage Wednesday through Friday.
NYSE Volume 5,592,967,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,094,364,375
Commodity traders took the same laid-back approach on the session. Oil slipped 16 cents, to $66.71; gold gained 30 cents, to finish at $994.40. Silver shed 2 cents to end at $16.18.
There was scant data with which to move the markets on Tuesday, though tomorrow will be another story altogether. Analysts are seeking job losses in the ADP report of about 200,000 for the month of September, and Non-farm payrolls of about the same level, though a figure of -180,000 would certainly be a tonic for the markets.
As mixed as economic data has been over the past two weeks, it's difficult to portend a particular outcome, and the markets surely aren't offering any clues.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Plenty of Momentum for Gains
A week ago, two weeks ago, four weeks ago, every mouth with an opinion on the stock market was calling for a correction of 5-10%, except, possibly, Laszlo Berinyi of Berinyi Associates, who said that a correction was not necessarily in the cards, and pointed out, on CNBC (sorry, I do not have the actual clip or reference), that analysts had not done their homework and that he expected the Dow Jones Industrials to reach 10,000 this month.
Well, even though this month, September, is nearly over, Mr. Berinyi may have been on to something. After last week's three-day decline, in which the major averages dropped between 2 and 4%, the last few days of the month have - all of a sudden - taken on a new, bullish tone. There are reasons aplenty for the abrupt upward keel that we witnessed on Monday, not the least of which having much to do with world politics. The far East stock indices such as the Shanghai, Nikkei and Hang Seng were all off sharply Monday morning, boding ill for their Western counterparts, but, miraculously, as Easterners awoke to a fresh week of market action, Europe's bourses were up sharply, and index futures were singing the praises of free market capitalism.
Merger deals were in the works with Xerox and Abbot Labs leading the charge, so when the US markets opened, traders wre buying fistfuls of stocks, from energy to industrials, to consumer cyclicals to health care. The Dow was up 100 points in the first fifteen minutes, and churned from there in a tight range.
While the rally will be pooh-poohed by the bears who will point out that volume was significantly lower due to observance of Yom Kippur, those holding their Torahs today were not missing from the rally. Surely they had issued instructions that were carried out with haste in the early going.
Dow 9,789.36, +124.17 (1.28%)
NASDAQ 2,130.74, +39.82 (1.90%)
S&P 500 1,062.98, +18.60 (1.78%)
NYSE Composite 6,939.76, +116.25 (1.70%)
On the day, advancers put decliners on notice of direction, beating them, 4972-1462, a 3-1 margin. New highs beat new lows, 318-55, expanding the gap and reducing the gross number of stocks hitting fresh lows. As mentioned above, volume was low, due to a Jewish holiday, but that fact is insignificant.
There is still untapped value in many stocks, earnings season is less than a week away, the economy is expanding once again, and sentiment is high. There is every reason to believe that stocks will continue their bull run in the near term.
NYSE Volume 4,399,573,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,931,896,625
Geo-politics dictates that the United States show strength following the G-20, especially in the face of new threats emerging from Iran. Those threats are nothing more than banter, rather than actual posturing for nuclear armageddon, meaning that industry must, and will, carry onward without interruption.
Commodities got the Monday-morning memo as well. with oil rebounding 82 cents, to $66.84, gold higher by $2.50, to $994.10, and silver up 14 cents, to $16.20. The commodity gains were modest as compared to those in equities, and for good reason: we are still struggling through a corrective, deflationary environment. Commodity and labor prices will continue to remain under pressure until companies can build up profits, inventory and a path to sustained growth. The economic recovery will be neither quick nor shallow. It will be as it should be, coming out of a severe crisis: long and vibrant. Company earnings are on track for their third consecutive quarter to the upside.
Investors were warned by the mass media to beware of the month of September. With just two days remaining, it appears that the worst fears have failed to materialize. One can only hope that more pundits and analysts warn about October.
Well, even though this month, September, is nearly over, Mr. Berinyi may have been on to something. After last week's three-day decline, in which the major averages dropped between 2 and 4%, the last few days of the month have - all of a sudden - taken on a new, bullish tone. There are reasons aplenty for the abrupt upward keel that we witnessed on Monday, not the least of which having much to do with world politics. The far East stock indices such as the Shanghai, Nikkei and Hang Seng were all off sharply Monday morning, boding ill for their Western counterparts, but, miraculously, as Easterners awoke to a fresh week of market action, Europe's bourses were up sharply, and index futures were singing the praises of free market capitalism.
Merger deals were in the works with Xerox and Abbot Labs leading the charge, so when the US markets opened, traders wre buying fistfuls of stocks, from energy to industrials, to consumer cyclicals to health care. The Dow was up 100 points in the first fifteen minutes, and churned from there in a tight range.
While the rally will be pooh-poohed by the bears who will point out that volume was significantly lower due to observance of Yom Kippur, those holding their Torahs today were not missing from the rally. Surely they had issued instructions that were carried out with haste in the early going.
Dow 9,789.36, +124.17 (1.28%)
NASDAQ 2,130.74, +39.82 (1.90%)
S&P 500 1,062.98, +18.60 (1.78%)
NYSE Composite 6,939.76, +116.25 (1.70%)
On the day, advancers put decliners on notice of direction, beating them, 4972-1462, a 3-1 margin. New highs beat new lows, 318-55, expanding the gap and reducing the gross number of stocks hitting fresh lows. As mentioned above, volume was low, due to a Jewish holiday, but that fact is insignificant.
There is still untapped value in many stocks, earnings season is less than a week away, the economy is expanding once again, and sentiment is high. There is every reason to believe that stocks will continue their bull run in the near term.
NYSE Volume 4,399,573,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,931,896,625
Geo-politics dictates that the United States show strength following the G-20, especially in the face of new threats emerging from Iran. Those threats are nothing more than banter, rather than actual posturing for nuclear armageddon, meaning that industry must, and will, carry onward without interruption.
Commodities got the Monday-morning memo as well. with oil rebounding 82 cents, to $66.84, gold higher by $2.50, to $994.10, and silver up 14 cents, to $16.20. The commodity gains were modest as compared to those in equities, and for good reason: we are still struggling through a corrective, deflationary environment. Commodity and labor prices will continue to remain under pressure until companies can build up profits, inventory and a path to sustained growth. The economic recovery will be neither quick nor shallow. It will be as it should be, coming out of a severe crisis: long and vibrant. Company earnings are on track for their third consecutive quarter to the upside.
Investors were warned by the mass media to beware of the month of September. With just two days remaining, it appears that the worst fears have failed to materialize. One can only hope that more pundits and analysts warn about October.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Skidding Stocks Test Rally Resilience
Crosscurrents in the market continue to blow negative economic data into the mix. Today's rash of non-encouraging news came from two sources: the Commerce Department, which reported that durable goods orders fell 2.4%, when analysts were looking for a 0.4% gain; and the National Association of Realtors, in their monthly report on new home sales, which showed a gain, from a seasonally-adjusted 446K to 449K, smaller than expectations.
These minor gyrations in key economic data have been in the mix for two days and the markets have responded with something along the lines of a 2-3% decline in the value of stocks. Of course, not all stocks - nor indices - are created equal, and Friday's close demonstrated that the trade on the day was into defensive stocks and widely held issues, as the Dow outperformed the other majors on a relative basis. The losses on the Dow, as compared to yesterday, were almost exactly the same, but the NYSE Composite fared much better. On Thursday, the Comp was down 1.47%, as compared to -0.57% today.
There was a smattering of good news, as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey moved higher in September, to 73.5, from 70.2 in July. People had a right to feel better this month. Until just this week, the weather was nice (except in Georgia) and the stock market was up. Kids being back in school must have added at least half a point to the adult happiness index.
Dow 9,665.19, -42.25 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 2,090.92, -16.69 (0.79%)
S&P 500 1,044.38, -6.40 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite 6,823.51, -38.80 (0.57%)
Our simple indicators are suggesting that whatever decline is currently built into the markets, it's not going to be a large one, or, at worst, it's not going to damage all stocks and all sectors. After the big hits on Wednesday and Thursday, today's drop was moderate and much less broadly-based. Advancers were once more beaten back by decliners, 3640-2727, which was a vast improvement from Thursday's 3-1 ratio. New highs topped new lows, 213-42, roughly in line with yesterday's numbers. Volume was off significantly from the prior two days, suggesting that whatever downside risk is prevailing, it isn't much. There was no panic selling at all, though stocks did finish much closer to their lows than their highs, so until that trend reverses course, there's likely to be choppiness in the near term.
NYSE Volume 5,279,540,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,336,395,000
Commodities were muted once more, with oil up a mere 13 cents, to $66.02, close to yesterday's two-month low. Gold fell $7.30, to $991.60, while silver slipped 24 cents, to $16.06.
In total, the week was not that bad, considering the recent run in stocks, which happen to be the only place to make money these days. The 10-year Treasury was a strong performer, with yields down from 4.48% earlier in the week to 4.33 on Friday.
With September coming to an end next week, the outlook will be focused on employment - or the lack thereof - as September non-farms payroll data is likely to have a huge impact. The market will be looking for job losses of under 200,000, after the August numbers came in at -216,000. That may be somewhat of a reach and could harm stocks short term.
One caveat to all of this is that expectations for a smooth recovery from the very sharp recession may be a bit too optimistic. While the data on existing home sales and durable goods this week took a step backwards, understanding that nothing moves in exactly a straight line could prove to be a valuable piece to the economic puzzle. Like the stock market, the economy runs into bumps and grinds as well. It's a huge country, and the data may not be perfectly reliable as well, so it's a good idea to keep a broad perspective and an open mind.
Improvement will happen, but not all at once and certainly not in measured doses.
These minor gyrations in key economic data have been in the mix for two days and the markets have responded with something along the lines of a 2-3% decline in the value of stocks. Of course, not all stocks - nor indices - are created equal, and Friday's close demonstrated that the trade on the day was into defensive stocks and widely held issues, as the Dow outperformed the other majors on a relative basis. The losses on the Dow, as compared to yesterday, were almost exactly the same, but the NYSE Composite fared much better. On Thursday, the Comp was down 1.47%, as compared to -0.57% today.
There was a smattering of good news, as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey moved higher in September, to 73.5, from 70.2 in July. People had a right to feel better this month. Until just this week, the weather was nice (except in Georgia) and the stock market was up. Kids being back in school must have added at least half a point to the adult happiness index.
Dow 9,665.19, -42.25 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 2,090.92, -16.69 (0.79%)
S&P 500 1,044.38, -6.40 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite 6,823.51, -38.80 (0.57%)
Our simple indicators are suggesting that whatever decline is currently built into the markets, it's not going to be a large one, or, at worst, it's not going to damage all stocks and all sectors. After the big hits on Wednesday and Thursday, today's drop was moderate and much less broadly-based. Advancers were once more beaten back by decliners, 3640-2727, which was a vast improvement from Thursday's 3-1 ratio. New highs topped new lows, 213-42, roughly in line with yesterday's numbers. Volume was off significantly from the prior two days, suggesting that whatever downside risk is prevailing, it isn't much. There was no panic selling at all, though stocks did finish much closer to their lows than their highs, so until that trend reverses course, there's likely to be choppiness in the near term.
NYSE Volume 5,279,540,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,336,395,000
Commodities were muted once more, with oil up a mere 13 cents, to $66.02, close to yesterday's two-month low. Gold fell $7.30, to $991.60, while silver slipped 24 cents, to $16.06.
In total, the week was not that bad, considering the recent run in stocks, which happen to be the only place to make money these days. The 10-year Treasury was a strong performer, with yields down from 4.48% earlier in the week to 4.33 on Friday.
With September coming to an end next week, the outlook will be focused on employment - or the lack thereof - as September non-farms payroll data is likely to have a huge impact. The market will be looking for job losses of under 200,000, after the August numbers came in at -216,000. That may be somewhat of a reach and could harm stocks short term.
One caveat to all of this is that expectations for a smooth recovery from the very sharp recession may be a bit too optimistic. While the data on existing home sales and durable goods this week took a step backwards, understanding that nothing moves in exactly a straight line could prove to be a valuable piece to the economic puzzle. Like the stock market, the economy runs into bumps and grinds as well. It's a huge country, and the data may not be perfectly reliable as well, so it's a good idea to keep a broad perspective and an open mind.
Improvement will happen, but not all at once and certainly not in measured doses.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
