WEEKEND WRAP: Trumps' COVID, Poor Jobs Report Cast Longer Recession Shadow Over Markets And Economy

Friday morning, awakening to news that President Trump and First Lady Melania had tested positive for COVID-19, many Americans - after months of annoyance, disturbance, lockdowns, and social disruption - felt what it was like to be human again.

The news was like being hit with a dull object. Once again, we were able to share pain and sympathy. We put aside the petty arguments, the baseless accusations, the political bias and shared a common grieving for the first couple. Outside of a few insensitive media personalities, there came a moment of peace. Whatever one felt about our boisterous president, he was, for a moment, our president, representative for all of us, and we'd be damned if some invisible virus were to put him down.

Shock permeated even the dullest facades. Even the usual bombast from the canyons of Wall Street were subdued. Making money trading stocks suddenly seems less important. The Dow opened down nearly 350 points. All other markets were similarly in the red.

As the day wore on, stocks recovered somewhat as the news flow began to indicate that the president and Melania would be receiving the best of care and were likely to survive. An understanding that COVID-19 kills very few of those infected and both Mr. Trump and his wife were in good health overall. By the end of the day, only the NASDAQ was damaged badly, losing more than two percent on the day, wiping out some of the gains made earlier in the week.

That was Friday. Most of the week was spent racking up profits. When it was all said and done, the Dow and S&P finished with the first positive weekly close in five weeks. The NASDAQ put in its second straight weekly gain and the NYSE Composite ended with its second weekly plus in the last five.

Despite Friday's dull thud, exacerbated by a poor showing in the September Non-Farm Payroll data, stocks had put in the best week since August, with the gains ranging between 1.48 and 2.12%.

The September employment report was a major disappointment and that may have had an equally depressing effect on Friday's session as the news on the president. Forecast to have added 850,000 jobs, only 661,000 were actually created. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%, but that improvement was overshadowed by the major miss on the headline jobs number.

Overall, the report deflated hopes for a quick recovery in the economy and brought out fears that the coronavirus-inspired recession could last longer than most were anticipating. Almost all cities remain in some kind of restricted state, with business closures and swelling unemployment the norm. In the countryside, the mood was a little brighter, though many Midwestern states were seeing a rise in COVID-19 cases, and that was troubling to everybody.

Parts of Europe were readying for another round of lockdowns and stay-at-home conditions and the feeling that a second wave of the virus, along with a complicated scenario with the normal seasonal flu, might prompt more restrictions on school, business, travel, and employment. The economy has been put through a wringer and parts of the country and economy have been severely damaged. A longer, more painful recession looms large.

Everything seemed to be deflating at the same time. Oil, which has been under pressure, unable to break out from its recent range, dropped to its lowest level in six months, ending the week badly, down from $40.25 a week ago to $37.05 at Friday's close.

Treasuries were hit, but only slightly. While the short maturities remained tethered to the zero-bound, the 10-year note gained four basis points, from 1.66% to 1.70%. The 30-year added eight basis points, from 1.40% the prior week, to 1.48% on Friday.

Precious metals, prices of which should be heading to the stratosphere, were mired in muck. For the week, gold gained nearly $40 per ounce, though the current level is far below the recent peak. Closing out the week at $1899.84 per ounce, the glorious metal is down eight percent from the August 6 high over $2063.54.

Silver, the undeclared enemy of the state, spent the week pricing off recent lows. On September 25th, spot silver stood at a depressed $22.89 per troy ounce. By Friday, October 2, it had recovered slightly, finishing at $23.74, though that number was hardly representative of physical demand and heightened premiums being charged by dealers amid a prolonged shortage. It was a far cry from the August 10 high of $29.13, a decline of 18.5%, nearing bear market status for spot when indications in the real world are exactly the opposite.

Presented are the most recent prices for common gold and silver items on eBay (numismatics excluded, shipping - often free - included):

Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 29.58 / 44.05 / 34.53 / 34.23
1 oz silver bar: 28.80 / 48.00 / 33.78 / 32.26
1 oz gold coin: 2,000.00 / 2,045.09 / 2,019.52 / 2,014.60
1 oz gold bar: 1,980.00 / 2,023.09 / 2,007.88 / 2,009.45

It is plain to see that premiums for the average or median-priced 1 ounce gold coin or bar are over $100 higher than spot prices and dealers are getting them and more. Silver premiums remain through the roof, with average or median-priced 1 ounce silver coin $10 or more over spot.

The stranglehold that the spot and futures markets have on precious metals is largely unreflected in the physical market. When traders begin to stand for delivery instead of setting in cash, the fraud on the public by the futures traders and spot price-setters will be blown to smithereens and prices for gold and silver will rise parabolically. When that day comes, nobody knows, though it is all but certain that precious metals prices, at least in their relationships to fiat currencies are a far cry from true price discovery.

At the Close, Friday, October 2, 2020:
Dow: 27,682.81, -134.09 (-0.48%)
NASDAQ: 11,075.02, -251.49 (-2.22%)
S&P 500: 3,348.44, -32.36 (-0.96%)
NYSE: 12,749.79, +22.95 (+0.18%)

For the Week:
Dow: +508.85 (+1.87%)
NASDAQ: +161.46 (+1.48%)
S&P 500: +49.96 (+1.51%)
NYSE: +264.41 (+2.12%)

Stocks Rip Higher, Unemployment Claims Down Due to Labor Dept. Adjustment (?), Sturgis Biker Death Reported

Stocks were up sharply on Wednesday, September 2nd, with all major indices putting in impressive gains. Led by the Dow Industrials, which cracked the 29,000 mark for the first time since February 20, the trading was genuinely positive all day but really ramped up in the final two hours.

The big move in the Industrial Average was aided by the recent inclusion of Amgen Inc. (258.12, +7.26 +2.89%) and Honeywell (172.47, +4.50 +2.68%) but disappointed by salesforce.com (276.69, -4.56 -1.62%), which replaced ExxonMobile, Raytheon, and Pfizer.

Wednesday's move left the Dow just 450 points from its all-time closing high (21,551.42, Feb. 10, 2020), a number that is almost certainly to be shattered within weeks, if not days.






Moving ahead to Thursday's pre-market, initial jobless claims were 833,352 on an unadjusted basis, and 881,000, seasonally adjusted.

As if the unemployment figures produced by the Department of Labor weren't suspect enough, a change in how seasonally-adjusted claims are reported began with today's report.

According to Yahoo News, "Thursday’s report, however, will also mark the first time the US Department of Labor (DOL) counts new and continuing jobless claims under an updated system, with this change expected to lower the number of seasonally adjusted claims that get reported."

According to another "trusted" source, USA Today claims, "The new method involves using a seasonal adjustment that’s more stable because it applies a number rather than a percentage to the actual claims total, J.P. Morgan economist Daniel Silver wrote in a note to clients."

Now, since the seasonally-adjusted number is higher (881,000) than the non-adjusted figure (833,352), what can we make of this? Hard to tell, since the opposite of what was expected to happen (lower seasonally-adjusted number) via the change in calculation, occurred.

Well, suffice it to say that the government lies, mostly all the time.






This report would not be complete without a little taste of fake news - today's entry into the panoply of bogusness from the pre-eminent anti-truth newspaper, the Washington Post.

Their story, published on September 2, purports to detail the horrible after-effects from the evil biker rally in Sturgis, South Dakota back in the second week of August, claiming to report the First covid-19 death linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.

The article - with some degree of giddiness - states:

The man was in his 60s, had underlying conditions and was hospitalized in intensive care for several weeks after returning from the rally, said Kris Ehresmann, infectious-disease director at the Minnesota Department of Health. The case is among at least 260 cases in 11 states tied directly to the event, according to a survey of health departments by The Washington Post.

First, note that the man had underlying conditions, but the article - likewise the hundreds of other articles covering the same story - fails to mention what those conditions were. Cancer? Obesity? Acne? Anybody?

While the article very plainly states that the man attended the rally in Sturgis, it fails to mention where he went before and after the rally. The coronavirus, we've been told, can have a quite long incubation period, so where the Post tries to link the man's death to the rally, it doesn't mention whether he was a regular church-goer, mall shopper, or attended any other rallies, festivals, parties, or gatherings where he could have picked up the infection. For all we know, he could have contracted the COVID from a relative or somebody he had lunch with near his home. Dead horse. Stop beating it.

Let's take a look at some numbers, OK?

The annual US Death rate is 863.8 deaths per 100,000 population. That amounts to 16.61 deaths per 100,000 per week.

Considering that the Sturgis biker festival supposedly drew about 400,000, it would be statistically insignificant if 64 of the people who attended the rally died each week following the event. Many of these bikers are in the riskiest categories, over 50, surely many with one or more comorbidity, so if 100 or more of these bikers died since August 16, it would not be surprising.

But, here we have one. ONE. Just one guy and it makes news. Now, if bikers were dropping like flies sprayed with Black Flag, then there would be a story. One guy, who was old and already sick, dying, does not a news story make. What it does is promote the COVID propaganda narrative which tells us to wear masks, stay away from each other (no hugging, kissing, or, for the sake of the children, none of that intimacy stuff), be afraid, make sure to be first in line for an untested, possibly fatal, vaccine which will be rolled out in a couple of months, and stop living as normal human beings.

The fellow who passed away may have had a terminal illness for all we know and was going to the biker rally for one last good time before cashing in his chips. We don't know and rest assured the crack reporters who covered this story are unlikely to follow up with any relevant details, so, we'll probably never know the truth.

The truth. It hurts. It's also, according to the "father of tragedy," Aeschylus, the first casualty of war, and we are at war. With the government, the media, the medical and financial communities.

At the Close, Wednesday, September 2, 2020:
Dow: 29,100.50, +454.84 (+1.59%)
NASDAQ: 12,056.44, +116.78 (+0.98%)
S&P 500: 3,580.84, +54.19 (+1.54%)
NYSE: 13,276.74, +163.00 (+1.24%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Did The BLS Cook The Books On May's Jobs Report?; Despite Stock Euphoria, The Crisis Will Continue

The week was one of consistency on the major indices, with stocks closing higher every day except Thursday, though, of the big four, the Dow was higher every day of the week, culminating in Friday's blow-off rally following the release of May non-farm payroll data from the BLS.

There was a considerable amount of speculation regarding the veracity of the BLS figures, which showed a net gain in May of 2.5 million jobs, the unemployment rate falling to 13.3%, according to the official release.

Most of the nation at least partially shut down during the month, the data provided by the BLS, while good enough for Wall Street's stock enthusiasts, has to be considered at least partially flawed, given that continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the most recent week, hitting nearly 21.5 million.

Given that the April non-farm payroll report was a blockbuster all-time record at -20,537,000, revised higher, to -20,687,000, adding in the +2,509,000 would yield 18,178,000 still unemployed at the end of May, a number that does not jibe with the 21,487,000 continuing unemployment claims reported by the US Labor Department.

Also taken into consideration for the discrepancies between the two reports are the differences in reporting schedules and the Labor Department's estimate of more than 42 million initial claims filed over the past 10 weeks. Simply put, a lot of people went back to work in May, but there are still somewhere between 18 and 25 million unemployed. By claiming a record job creation number in its May data, the BLS has likely overstated the case for people returning to work after a brief hiatus due to the lockdowns caused by extreme measures taken to combat COVID-19.

A jump of 2.5 million jobs for the month has to be taken somewhat tongue-in-cheek since these are not new jobs whatsoever. The economy didn't produce 2.5 million new jobs. A better explanation would be that during the month, more people went back to work than were laid off or fired, by about 2.5 million.

Therefore, while the BLS can be accused of massaging their data to produce a positive headline, their methodology and timing remain - as has been the case for a very long time - somewhat suspect. There's still a massive unemployment problem which was manifest by the enormous numbers of protesters that appeared in cities nationwide over the course of the week. Many of these mostly young people were out on the streets during daylight and into the evenings. It would be logical to conclude that the vast majority of them were not holding down full-time jobs.

The protests underscore two things, neither of which have anything remotely to do with the death of George Floyd or police brutality. First, the protests are more about income inequality than anything else. These young people from Generation Z and the last remnants of the Millennials are becoming more and more impatient with the structure of the economy, even though most of them don't recognize that as the overriding factor of their movement.

While the chants of "Black Lives Matter" and "No Justice, No Peace" make for sensationally simple-minded soundbites on the mainstream media's morning and nightly news broadcasts, the root of the frustration is an economy which provides fewer jobs than are needed for fewer hours per week, at low rates of pay while the purchasing power of the dollar continues to decline, especially in some very important areas, those being primarily, housing, education, and health care.

When economists decry that large government deficits will be bourn on the backs of future generations, what we are seeing today is the truth of that dictum as the youthful protesters on the street are the generation now paying for the deficits rung up from the 1970s and '80s. It's a continuing, systemic problem that isn't about to go away. People trying to enter the workforce and engage in meaningful careers are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet. Income has net kept pace with inflation over the past 40-50 years, dating back to when then-President Nixon took the country off permanently off the gold standard in August of 1971.

There are certainly many young people doing fine in their careers. Those with masters degrees or doctorates or well-honed skills make very good money, but at a considerable price. Their cost of eduction can be measured in their student loan debt. Since housing costs have risen to extreme levels with only a slight blip in 2008-09, the affordability of just plain living quarters tests their resolve. Those wishing to start families (a declining number) see health care costs spiraling out of control. And those are the lucky ones with good jobs and dual incomes.

The rest of their generation struggles with all of that at lower pay and onerous debt. Many Millennials and Generation Z youths live four and five to a single home or apartment. Most cannot save anything, much less even dream of owning their own homes. Pity those who have medical conditions. Most cannot afford $300-$600 a month premiums with $5-8,000 deductibles, so they go without. To a lesser degree, the same conditions affect the backend of the Baby Boomers and early Millennials who have lived their lives on the fringes of society.

It's a condition of perpetual decline when roughly half of adult Americans do not have any savings whatsoever, the result of massive, uncontrolled government deficits, fait currency backed by nothing, printed to the hilt causing the purchasing power of the almighty dollar to slide into obscurity. It's not going away. In fact, with the Federal Reserve now in the process of either buying up or backing every stock or bond issued, hoisting their balance sheet by more than three trillion dollars in just the past three months, the US economy has become one of very few haves and very many have-nots, manifesting itself as runaway inflation. Not confined to just the United States, the rest of the world is revolted and revolting. Under current fiscal and monetary policy, the entire planet is rapidly turning into an oversized Venezuela.

Dissatisfaction with the political process is the second tenet of the protesters root causes, dovetailing income inequality and unaffordable living conditions. Federal, state, and local governments are ill-equipped to handle even ordinary stresses. Now that unemployment is on the rise and inflation is taking hold, government resources are stretched beyond their means. When people needed food during the recent lockdowns, government made little effort to step in. Food banks, charities and private citizens stepped up to fill the void. Government is increasingly being viewed with a jaded eye, neither responsive to people's needs nor able to fulfill basic obligations. People are simply tired of paying taxes and getting little to nothing in return. Individual income tax revenues are falling off a cliff while government debt continues to rise at an accelerating pace. Nothing about the current social and political condition is sustainable over anything but the short term, which is why we are seeing one crisis after another, bailout after bailout, emergencies arising on a regular schedule.

The United States and the rest of the world cannot buy or borrow their way out of this situation with policies that only increase debt and the burden to society. President Trump and Wall Street can go giddy over the most recent jobs data, but the underlying problems continue to mount and they're not going away. For all the media hype and government high-fiving in the short term, there's a larger price to be paid down the road. After years of can-kicking of core fiscal and monetary issues, the road is coming to an end. Most people, politicians, and financial planners don't have sufficient knowledge or vision to see where this all leads, preference being given to the present.

The NASDAQ is less than one half of one percent away from breaking to a new all-time high (9838.37).

The S&P 500 is about six percent away from a record close (3393.52).

Stocks are likely to continue climbing to record highs, but a period of stagnation lies just ahead. The bear market which was cut short by the Fed's money-pumping mechanisms and the government's emergency spending bills was the shortest on record, lasting a mere five weeks. Another bear market will be coming, as this one was papered over with currency that has only declining value. Oil prices are back up and by Friday, interest rates on treasuries had exploded. The 10-year note yielded 0.66% on Monday. By Friday, they were at 0.91%. The 30-year yield went from 1.46% to 1.68% over the course of the week. Shorter-dated maturities remained low, steepening the curve.

The final question for economists is this: How can high unemployment and tighter currency (higher rates) co-exist. The answer is very simple. They can't. With business unwilling or unable to expand, few will be hiring. Unemployment will remain elevated until there's a clearing or restructure of debt and businesses see a rosier future.

The Federal Reserve and the federal government has a very big problem on their hands. The pandemic and street uprisings were just the opening chapters of a very long story.

Gold and silver saw gains early in the week, only to be hammered lower on the paper markets.

The latest prices on ebay for one troy once items (shipping - often free - included):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 24.95 / 42.50 / 28.47 / 27.75
1 oz silver bar: 24.99 / 45.00 / 29.09 / 27.90
1 oz gold coin: 1,780.00 / 1,882.00 / 1,823.11 / 1,823.69
1 oz gold bar: 1,755.95 / 1,826.92 / 1,792.96 / 1,794.40

Premiums for silver are, on average, ten dollars or more over spot. Gold premiums are $80-100 over spot.

Greg Mannarino expounds upon the jobs number being cooked, market response and his positioning:



At the Close, Friday, June 5, 2020:
Dow: 27,110.98, +829.16 (+3.15%)
NASDAQ: 9,814.08, +198.27 (+2.06%)
S&P 500: 3,193.93, +81.58 (+2.62%)
NYSE: 12,641.44, +354.46 (+2.88%)

For the Week:
Dow: +1727.87 (+6.81%)
NASDAQ: +324.21 (+3.42%)
S&P 500: +149.62 (+4.91%)
NYSE: +838.49 (+7.10%)

Fed Expands MLF Program To States, But Rates Are Too High For Widespread Participation

The Federal Reserve's MLF (Municipal Liquidity Facility) is yet another way the nation's central bank is picking winners and losers in the struggle to survive economic collapse.

By offering fresh currency to struggling states and municipalities, the Fed - having already expanded their balance sheet by more than $3 trillion in just the past three months - says it wants to help out by buying issuance from states, cities and now, public transit, airports, toll facilities, and utilities, becoming the buyer and lender of last resort for everything from your local bus company to your regional energy supplier.

Not that the Fed may have some evil intentions of owning everything in America, they also want to be paid well for it as well, which is why most states won't take the Fed up on their generous offer.

Those states with poor credit ratings, like Illinois (BBB), New Jersey, California, and Kentucky are the likeliest candidates to use the facility, as they are offered better rates by the Fed than they would find in the usual muni bond market.

According to Standard and Poors, only nine states have credit ratings lower than AA, meaning the vast majority of states will not probably need backing from the Fed unless the muni markets seize up and rates skyrocket, a situation that was made somewhat more of a known risk during the coronavirus lockdowns.

Funding needs by the states are generally considered among the safest bonds available. In most cases they can be held tax-free, another reason for their popularity. Thus, most states are going to say "thanks, but no thanks" to the Fed, as their funding needs are going to be largely fulfilled in the open market.

A BofA Global Research report on Wednesday projected borrowing under the MLF with its current terms would only total $90 billion. That's out of $500 billion allocated to the program.

The Fed also said it will support lending to multi-state entities and revenue bond issuers, or RBIs.

"Eligible notes issued by eligible issuers that are not multi-state entities or designated RBIs will generally be expected to represent general obligations of the eligible issuer, or be backed by tax or other specified governmental revenues of the applicable state, city, or county,” the Fed said. “If the eligible issuer is an authority, agency, or other entity of a state, city, or county, such eligible issuer must either commit the credit of, or pledge revenues of, the state, city, or county, or the state, city, or county must guarantee the eligible notes issued by such issuer."

Again, the Fed wants its pound of flesh, in the above instances, via actual tax receipts or guarantees.

Because response to the program has been tepid, the Fed has also lowered the bar for participation, allowing states with smaller populations to make choices for eligibility based upon their own populations.

"A governor that has the ability to designate one designated city or designated county may choose either (i) the most populous city in his or her state that has less than 250,000 residents or (ii) the most populous county in his or her state that has less than 500,000 residents," the Fed said in a statement.

Illinois was the first issuer to access the Municipal Liquidity Facility, with a trade of $1.2 billion of one-year general obligation notes and a rate of 3.82%. That deal is expected to close June 5.

New York's MTA (Metropolitan Transportation Authority), which operates the city's subway and commuter trains, last week asked the Fed for direct access to the program. Legislation is pending.

In their grand scheme to save the world, the Fed may want to own everything or at least have every entity on the planet in debt to them. With interest rates in the toilet, they're going to have to offer better deals to execute their plan. With that knowledge in hand, how long will it be before negative rates become the de facto norm?

---

Stocks ramped higher on Wednesday after ADP released its May private sector employment report. The private firm said the econly lost 2.76 million jobs during the month, far less than expectations of 7.4 to 8.6 million, based on weekly reports of initial unemployment filings.

ADP's figures, so far from expectations, had investors drooling over prospects for a less-substantial number from the government's non-farm payroll data due out on Friday. The thinking is that many firms rehired people in May, offsetting the number of people who lost jobs or were temporarily furloughed. It's just another way for skewed data to shift sentiment away from the prospect of long-term damage done to the economy by the coronavirus and lockdowns and toward the event being a one-off from which the economy will quickly rebound.

With that in mind, gold and silver were slaughtered after making substantial gain in the paper markets. Supply issues remain, however, with premiums for both metals well above the paper prices and normal range. Gold, which was pushing $1750, fell back below $1690 on Wednesday. Silver retreated from as high as $18.30 to $17.64. Both gold and silver were rebounding in overnight trading.

Thursday's release of another round of initial unemployment claims is unlikely to have a material impact on stocks, which will probably take a breather in advance of Friday's May non-farm payrolls.

At the Close, Wednesday, June 3, 2020:
Dow: 26,269.89, +527.24 (+2.05%)
NASDAQ: 9,682.91, +74.54 (+0.78%)
S&P 500: 3,122.87, +42.05 (+1.36%)
NYSE: 12,302.19, +255.79 (+2.12%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Governments Throw $$$ Billions At Drug Companies; Mall Rents Go Unpaid; Unemployment Soaring; Stocks Higher

Spurred by an announcement by Moderna (MRNA) that early trials of a possible COVID-19 vaccine were positive, stocks rode a big Monday rally to better than three percent gains across the major indices. All but the NYSE Composite closed at 11-week highs, the Comp. falling just points short.

The irony of the rally was that Moderna, a company that has never made a single dime of profit (they've lost $1.5 billion since 2016), closed last Friday at 66.68, finished Monday at an even $80 per share, but closed out the week at 69.00. In between, there were some big paydays for insiders. If that wasn't proof enough that the market is a crony capitalist playground, then something's wrong with people's world views.

It was the ultimate slap in the face to the American public by the rich and connected, the one-percenters, who made a show of fake news over something ultimately immaterial. It was a very sad display of fascism in practice.

To make matters even worse, Moderna received up to $483 million in federal funding to accelerate development of its coronavirus vaccine. Governments around the world are throwing money at well-heeled companies working on a vaccine. In the United States, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a federal agency that funds disease-fighting technology, has announced investments of nearly $1 billion to support coronavirus vaccine development and the scale-up of manufacturing for promising candidates. Johnson and Johnson, Sanofi, and GlaxoSmithKline are among about 100 companies being funded for research toward a coronavirus vaccine by countries from Canada, to Singapore, to France.

The US government committed up to $1.2 billion to fund Oxford University and drug maker, AstraZeneca, in a race to produce a vaccine by October, it was announced on Friday.

The quickest a vaccine has ever been developed is four years from phase one trials to working vaccine on the market. No vaccine for a coronavirus has ever been successfully developed. SARS and MERS are variants of coronaviruses. There are no vaccines to protect against them.

This is just the common folly of the age in which we live. Instead of spending time explaining to people how to strengthen their individual immune systems - the best defense against all diseases and viruses - world governments spend taxpayer dollars funding companies that don't need any extra money. It's an incredible waste of capital, but you can bet the executives of the Big Pharma companies (one of Washington's biggest lobbying groups) and high-ranking scientists are making bank on your dollar.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the "official" unemployment figure is 14.7%, with more than 36 million Americans out of work. Wall Street continues to party while Main Street gets the shaft, as usual. Lockdowns and social distancing restrictions have blown a hole in small businesses, many of which will never recover and will be bankrupt within months, if not already.

Malls are going broke. The biggest mall in the country, Minnesota's Mall of America, is two months delinquent on it's $1.4 billion loan. Other mall landlords report collecting less than 25% of rent due from April and May. With June approaching quickly, many retailers will be three months behind on rent payments and subject to lockouts, forced liquidations, and other draconian measures written into their leases.

Bankruptcies are mounting and delinquency notices are flying around everywhere. With retail operations - from clothing stores to hair salons to baseball card shops and everything in between - suffering as a result of the nearly nationwide two-month lockdown, many employees who were furloughed will not have jobs to go back to when everything begins to get back to some semblance of normal. That means extended unemployment for millions, poverty and homelessness set to soar.

The federal government's additional $600 a week in unemployment benefits via the CARES act will run out at the end of July, just in time for back-to-school sales that may not happen because some schools won't be reopening and many colleges are planning to allow only limited on-campus activity, with many classes offered via the internet only.

The world has changed, and is changing, though it doesn't appear to be for the better, at least at first blush.

Gold and silver caught bids on the paper markets this week with gold trading as high as $1756.90 per ounce, closing out at $1732.70 bid. Silver was an even better performer, ripping through the $17 per ounce price on Monday, trading as high as $17.57 per ounce before settling in at $17.19 on Friday.

In the physical market, premiums have begun to ease after an incredible supply-demand tug-of-war. Dealers are still facing shortages of certain items, but on eBay, at least, prices were lower for the week, although still well above spot prices.

Here are the most recent prices (Sunday, May 24) for specific items on eBay:

Item / Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin / 22.74 / 38.98 / 30.72 / 29.60
1 oz silver bar / 25.45 / 39.50 / 29.84 / 26.98
1 oz gold coin / 1,855.00 / 1,985.00 / 1,894.48 / 1,894.27
1 oz gold bar / 1,839.93 / 1,987.95 / 1,869.38 / 1,855.52

Oil was up, treasuries were fairly flat for the week. It's a beautiful holiday weekend, so we're calling this a wrap, right here.

Get out and get some sun!

At the Close, Friday, May 22, 2020:
Dow: 24,465.16, -8.94 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 9,324.59, +39.71 (+0.43%)
S&P 500: 2,955.45, +6.94 (+0.24%)
NYSE: 11,331.97, -19.63 (-0.17%)

For the Week:
Dow: +779.74 (+3.29%)
NASDAQ: +310.03 (+3.44%)
S&P 500: +91.75 (+3.20%)
NYSE: +384.65 (+3.51%)

Stocks Post Weak Gains Ahead of April Retail; Gold, Silver Bid, Approaching Breakout Levels

Following a weak open, which looked to see stocks extend their losing streak to a third straight session in the red, stocks pivoted, gradually rising off the lows (the Dow down more than 400 points early on) to eventually finish with fair, though hardly secure gains, the advance prompted right at the Dow Jones Industrials' 50-day moving average.

For the seventh time in the past eight weeks, the major averages put on gains in the face of staggering employment losses, as new unemployment claims came in hotter than anticipated, with 2.98 million fresh filings, bringing the two-month total over 36 million out of work.

Equity moves were likely not correlated well to the unemployment data, as the gains all appeared after the news had been known for hours. The more likely scenario was one which has been playing out since the Federal Reserve stepped up its bond-buying activity, but quantitatively and qualitatively. Flush with cash, primary dealers and cohorts ramped into stocks, erasing some of the losses from the prior two sessions.

The move, which is mostly market noise rather than anything substantial, is likely to have been in vain. With investors eyeing what are certain to be horrific April retail sales figures Friday morning, futures are pointing down two hours prior to the opening bell.

Sensing weakness in equities, precious metals caught a long-overdue bid, with gold bounding as high as $1732.70, and silver breaking out to a high in early Friday morning trading of $16.48 per troy ounce.

Premiums on both gold and silver remain high, with popular one-ounce silver bars and coins selling in a range of $23-30, while gold fetches well above $1840 routinely for one ounce coins, rounds, or bars. Despite whatever nonsense the mainstream financial media is throwing out as justification for stocks over real money, demand for precious metals is, and has been, at extremely high levels since early March with no abatement seen on the horizon. The outsized demand has created a supply shortage and has miners and smelting operations working at breakneck speed to maintain at least some modicum of reliability.

With input costs around $1250 for gold miners, exploration and excavation should continue at a strong pace as prices rise and demand continues strong. Undervalued for the past seven years at least, gold and silver mining companies may be looking at solid, if not spectacular, profits in coming quarters.

Bond traders were also able to capitalize on the recent weakness in stocks. The yield on the 10-year note has fallen from a May high yield of 0.73% on Monday to close at 0.63% on Thursday. The 30-year closed Monday at 1.43%, its highest level since March 25, but finished Thursday yielding 1.30% and under pressure.

Oil continues to be a favorite plaything of the speculative class, making a two-month high at $28.25 on hopes that some pickup in demand has occurred since states began getting back to business from May 1 forward. Despite an enormous glut on the supply side, specs and oil company execs are latching onto any rumor or fantasy to get the price off the recent decades-deep lows.

The world continues in a state of shock and despair over the coronavirus debacle and various government attempts to both stem its advance and keep their economies on life support. Indications are that some of it's working, but not very well, overall.

Stocks will need a three percent gain on Friday to avoid a negative print for the week. Only the rosiest prognosis would believe that even remotely possible, though the Fed's heft has overcome dire predictions more than once during the current crisis.

Stay liquid. Next posting will be Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP. Life on Wall Street may be not so sweet if all the currency thrown into markets doesn't produce anything more than a 50% spike off the lows, but that head-and-shoulders pattern on the Dow - now with a sloping right shoulder - is beginning to appear ominous.

At the Close, Thursday, May 14, 2020:
Dow: 23,625.34, +377.37 (+1.62%)
NASDAQ: 8,943.72, +80.56 (+0.91%)
S&P 500: 2,852.50, +32.50 (+1.15%)
NYSE: 10,927.41, +97.97 (+0.90%)

Banks Profit From Coronavirus; Governments Equivocate; Fed Keeping Stocks Afloat

Since there is too much information being thrown around on the coronavirus crisis, here are some of the top headlines:

Stocks rallied again after another 4.4 million people filed for unemployment relief, but the gains were wiped out when the World Health Organization (WHO) leaked a report that suggested trials on Gilead Science's (GILD) treatment drug, remdesivir, were not going well. Gilead finished down 4.2%, and the entire US stock market complex finished the day essentially unchanged.

Thursday, as the House pushed through $484 billion in round two of the bailout loan program for small businesses, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and other big banks raked in $10 billion in fees for processing the first round of small business PPP loans. As they usually do, the federal government made sure to take care of their major campaign donors. One burning question: since Ruth Cris is returning the $10 million loan they received, is JP Morgan Chase returning the $100,000 fee they "earned" for processing the loan?

Then there's this video that shows Fox News reporter John Roberts and New York Times photographer Doug Mills in the White House coronavirus press briefing room this past Tuesday caught on a hot mic. The two discuss the fatality rate of the virus, with Roberts saying it's between 0.1 and 0.3 percent, and Mills responding that it's in line with the ordinary flu. Some news outlets are characterizing the video as misleading, suggesting the two are joking. Judge for yourself.

According to a study by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which highlighted Thursday's White House press briefing, warm weather, sunlight, and low humidity could have mitigating effects on coronavirus. This theory has been bandied about since the early days of the pandemic, and there's been no substantial evidence to claim that normal summer weather will slow down the spread of the virus or kill it completely, though most flu viruses are negatively affected by warmer weather.

The best evidence is likely anecdotal, as countries with warm climates in the Southern Hemisphere and near the equator have actually been less-severely affected by COVID-19 than more northern countries like the United States, Russia, most of Europe and Canada. For instance, Australia, which first began reporting cases of the virus in February (similar to Northern Hemisphere's July), has had 6,674 reported cases, but only 78 deaths. Malaysia, whose capitol, Kuala Lumpur is situated 350 km or 217 miles from the equator, has reported 5,691 cases but only 96 deaths. This suggests that while the spread may be slowed somewhat, the virility, or severity, of the virus may be diminished. Time will tell, especially in the US and Europe, as warmer weather approaches and states and countries begin reopening their economies.

Since April 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index of 30 leading US companies, has traded in a very thin range between 22,634 and 24,232, a mere 1,598 points in an extremely volatile market. The COBE Volatility Index, or VIX, which tracks volatility, has been below 39 just two times since March 5. Normally, the VIX holds between 10 and 18 with great regularity. Anything above 20 is considered to be edging toward extreme and readings over 40, which have been common during the coronavirus campaign, are rare. On March 18, the VIX registered a reading of 85.47, exceeded only by a high mark of 89.53, on October 24, 2008, at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.

Managing to keep the Dow in such a tight range can only be due to the Fed's massive inputs of cash to primary dealers via various funding vehicles created during the coronavirus crisis. Trillions of dollars have flowed to banks, who routinely put that currency to work buying stocks and keeping blue chip equities in a fairly well-defined pattern. Stocks go up, they go down, they go back up. The Fed is in control of what used to be a free, fair market. Freedom and fairness in publicly-traded stocks hasn't existed for quite some time. Now they are virtually extinct entities.

What most of the headlines and alternative media narrative suggests is that the global public is being used, abused and largely misinformed. Governments in developed nations are employing the virus and public lockdowns as cover for the failed global fiat currency economic system that will have to be replaced shortly, within six months to three years, depending on how long those in power can keep people from overthrowing the entrenched oligarchs, kleptocrats, cronies, and assorted liars and thieves in government, business, and the media.

When the new world currency is announced, it will likely be all digital (blockchain technology) because paper and coin currency is "dirty" and "may carry viruses." At least that would seem to fit the accepted game plan that's being etched out on an ongoing basis. It will be up to individuals - not governments - to either accept or reject new currencies offered by the same people who destroyed the old system or opt for alternatives like gold, silver, bitcoin, and the tried and true efficacies of bartering goods and services.

There may indeed be more than one global currency: one for international trade and governments, and one for everyday commerce by the people. Whatever occurs, the next few years are likely to be convulsive and disruptive to what most people consider normal.

At the Close, Thursday, April 23, 2020:
Dow: 23,515.26, +39.44 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 8,494.75, -0.63 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,797.80, -1.51 (-0.05%)
NYSE: 10,916.67, +8.11 (+0.07%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Americans Angered Over Lockdowns, Unfairness; Government Proposes Re-Opening

Was it a coincidence that the president released his guidelines for states to reopen their economies just as civil unrest was percolating across America?

Probably not. Very little happens by chance in the hyper-charged world of politics. The timing was no accident. From the looks of the well-prepared document sent out by the White House, these guidelines had been thought out and processed well in advance. Whether the co-mingled events of Thursday constitute conspiracy or just good planning is a debatable topic.

Whatever the case, most Americans won't be going back to work any time soon. The presidential guidelines call for 14 days of declining trajectory of COVID-19 cases or other criteria. Presently, the numbers are still rising in most states, so expect the level of unrest amongst the working class - what's left of it - to only increase in coming days.

At the same time, the fetid morass that came out of the recently-enacted relief bill is cause for even more dissent. While public corporations received government largesse instantaneously, small businesses suffering from shutdowns cited distressing experiences dealing with banks charged with administering their loans, and that was before the funding dried up and was gone. The so-called Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was availed to a very small percentage of businesses needing assistance, falling well short of anything approaching appeasement. Some lucky individuals began receiving $1200 direct deposits from the feds, and a good number of the 22 million unemployed started getting the extra $600 in weekly unemployment payouts.

Frustration with the rollout of the PPP small business loans was possibly ameliorated by the extra cash afforded unemployed people. There are more than a few people presently reporting a weekly windfall far in excess of what they were making while actually working, so where is the incentive for businesses to keep employees on the books - with the mandate of employers providing up to three months of paid family leave during the crisis - when the government is offering a better deal?

Again, the clashing narratives of extra unemployment compensation and forgivable loans to small business was not happenstance. It is no accident that the federal government gave generously with few strings attached to bail out Wall Street's darlings while confounding and confusing small business and wage earners.

It would take a monumental leap of faith to overlook either the government's gross incompetence or purposeful negligence. From the start, the entire coronavirus affair looks like, smells like, and feels like a deceitful scam, perpetrated to gloss over a multi-trillion dollar scheme to rescue the money center banks and their big corporation, stock-buyback, campaign contributing cohorts.

It worked, and so well that Americans are now clamoring and demanding to get back to their wage-and-tax slavery, otherwise known as a steady job. On Thursday, when the Labor Department reported another 5.5 million new unemployment claims, boosting the number since lockdowns and stay-at=home orders went into effect to over 22 million, stocks managed small gains on the day, but closed out the week on Friday with massive gains.

Over the course of the four weeks in which large numbers of unemployed were reported, stocks gained in three of them, accosting middle and lower class wage earners with an unhealthy kick in the teeth each time for their "sacrifice." The unfair collusion between big business and big government apparently is being tolerated for the time being, though the restlessness of the citizenry has become palpable, the bad taste becoming less palatable with each passing day of isolation and perceived abuse.

A less civil society would have already manned the ramparts and forced the issue. In Michigan, at least, the state house was under assault by thousands of protesters in what may be a sign of things to come. Americans shouldn't stand for such out-and-out double dealing by their government, but it looks like they will, at least until the unemployment money runs out. Or the food runs out. As it stands, they have already taken away Americans' right of assembly (banning large gatherings) to free movement, freedom of choice, and as the crisis commences, governors and bankers will be picking winners and losers, denying re-openings and/or loans to businesses that are deemed "non-essential."

When the Roman Republic transitioned to becoming the Roman Empire the will of the people waned and government fiat became law, with little to no public input or appreciation. Juvenal, a poet of the late first and early second century, decried the dreadful state of affairs in his satires, his most famous phrase coining the term for pacifying the masses, panem et circenses.

... Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.

-- Juvenal

Since the government of the United States - and elsewhere around the world - has already mandated an end to the circus aspect of American life by outlawing public gatherings such as sporting events - no baseball, no basketball, hockey, or soccer, and no fans - how soon they take away the bread (food), or price it at unaffordable levels, remains to be seen. The audacity and mendacious aspects of the government response - federal, state, and local - to the coronavirus pandemic puts into play a popular uprising in opposition to government that is increasingly being viewed as unfair, uncaring, and unaccountable.

This viewpoint is not held in isolation. It is shared by many. For perspective, the most recent Keiser Report gives an outstanding testament for the general outrage. It may be Max and Stacy's best effort ever produced (and this is episode 1529). The message is clear, concise, and to the point. Having the brilliant economist, Dr. Michael Hudson, in the second segment is a significant bonus. America, and likely, the rest of the world, is about to enter a new age of unbridled financial repression unless the citizenry rises up to smite the government and rentier class. Max and Stacy hit the nail hard and directly on the head.



Now, to recap the week in what used to be markets, everything is either broken, controlled, or manipulated. Precious metals can no longer be realistically priced by the futures. For decades, they have been manipulated by central banks and the bank for International Settlements (BIS). If there is any doubt, read the extensive body of work done by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). Be forewarned. It is voluminous. Likely the most accurate, true market for gold and silver is on - of all places - eBay, where private parties and dealers buy and sell precious metals in an open, largely unregulated market.

Here are recent (April 18, 19) prices for 1 ounce silver and gold coins on eBay* (quote order is LOW, HIGH, AVERAGE and MEDIAN):
One troy ounce silver coin: 25.50, 61.00, 36.19, 31.89
One troy ounce silver bar: 23.75, 33.00, 27.74, 27.38
One troy ounce gold coin: 1,860.00, 2,004.19, 1,919.82, 1,917.97
One troy ounce gold bar: 1,826.00, 1,905.37, 1,860.95,1,858.34

*Prices were generated using eBay's sold (recently ended) function for the 12 most recent sales of standard (non-numismatic) bars, rounds and coins. Prices included shipping (often free).

Compare the public market price (eBay) to the futures prices and judge for yourself which standard should be used when pricing precious metals. In addition to many dealers being sold out of many popular items, for the past month to six weeks dealers have been imposing minimum order amounts and shipment delays of 15-45 days.

Futures (fake) prices (April 17):
Silver: $15.20/troy ounce
Gold: $1686.50/troy ounce

How about some US Treasury bonds for your portfolio? The benchmark 10-year note yielded between a record low, 0.61%, and 0.76% for the week, closing out on Friday at 0.65% The entire yield curve is 115 basis points end to end, from the 30-day (0.12%) and the 30-year (1.27%). The best that can be said for the treasury yield is that it's better than all other developed national debt, most of which offer negative yields through to 10 year bonds.

Those with faith in government might still want to drop $10,000 on a 10-year note for a whopping return of $76 a year and a grand total of $760 if held to maturity. Others might be hedging that the yield will drop even lower or into negative territory and then sell the bond at a profit. For such a paltry return, neither scenario offers much upside potential.

The one bright spot for the global population is the price of oil and gas. Some states are selling gas at the pump for under $1.00 per gallon as the price of WTI crude closed out last week at $18.12, the lowest in decades. That's overtly deflationary.

At the Close, Friday, April 17, 2020:
Dow: 24,242.49, +704.79 (+2.99%)
NASDAQ: 8,650.14, +117.78 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 2,874.56, +75.01 (+2.68%)
NYSE: 11,208.29, +390.29 (+3.61%)

For the Week:
Dow: +523.12 (+2.21%)
NASDAQ: +496.57 (+6.09%)
S&P 500: +84.74 (+3.04%)
NYSE: +71.69 (+0.64%)

US Federal Government Disrespects Its People; $2 Trillion To Wall Street While Citizens Wait for Checks

At 8:30 am ET Thursday morning, April 9, 2020, the Labor Department announced that 6.6 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week. That's in addition to the nearly 10 million who applied for benefits the prior two weeks.

Have you received your $1200 check from the government yet?

Didn't think so. You are aware that Wall Street had access to $2 trillion weeks ago, right?

That's the number TWO (2) with twelve zeroes behind it. Like this: $2,000,000,000,000.

Bear in mind, the corporate money is coming to corporations via the Federal Reserve, which is not part of the federal government. It is and always has been a private bank, so there's really nothing "federal" about it. As far as the "reserve" portion of their name, they have no money in reserve. They have a balance sheet of nearly $6 trillion, all in various bonds or notes or obligations, otherwise known as debt. Much of it is not worth the paper its printed on or the electrons holding it in cyberspace.

There's no "reserves" at the Federal Reserve. They whip up currency out of thin air. A few keystrokes on their computer and viola! currency at their pleasure. The currency is represented by Federal Reserve Notes, or those pieces of paper some people carry around with pictures of dead presidents on them. Those are the ones, fives, 10s, 20s, 50s and 100-dollar bills floating around in the economy. There is only $1.75 trillion in actual printed currency according to the Federal Reserve. That's a little less than $6000 for every man, woman, and child in America.

The rest of the currency is in electronic form. The currency in your bank account is not really there. Try going to a bank branch and asking for $40,000 in cash, even if you have $100,000 in your account. First, you'd have to fill out IRS form 8300, because any transaction of $10,000 or more, the federal government wants to know about it. They think you might be a drug dealer, human trafficker, money launderer, or maybe a terrorist. It's all part of the Bank Secrecy Act, officially known as the Currency and Foreign Transactions Reporting Act. Then, after you've filled out the form, the bank's branch manager will likely tell you that they don't have that much money on hand. After that, you might have to come back on a later date to get some of it, make multiple trips, and go through a lot of hassle to get your hands on your currency.

This seems an appropriate place to explain the difference between money and currency. Here's Mike Maloney (an expert on the subject) to explain in less than three minutes:



The great financier, J.P. Morgan, put it in even simpler terms: Gold is money. Everything else is credit.

With that out of the way, have you received your $1200 yet?

No. Of course not. But Wall Street has already gotten theirs, and probably already spent it too. The stock market has been mostly up lately, the Dow Jones Industrial Average having risen from a close of 18,591.93 on March 23 to close at 23,433.57 Wednesday.

On March 17, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said President Trump would like to get money into the hands of people within two weeks. That was more than three weeks ago. Now, Mnuchin says the first direct deposits will be going out some time next week.

In other words, continue to wait. The government will be here to help in moments, er, days, er, weeks, maybe.

While Wall Street is open for business as usual, millions of Americans - roughly three quarters of the country - is under some form of stay-at-home or lockdown restriction. Ordinary people can't go to work, send their kids to school (they're closed), or venture beyond the boundaries of their own homes without some express, immediate need, like getting groceries, or picking up a prescription drug.

It's a shame. It's also likely unconstitutional. Americans are supposed to have the right to freely assemble. It's in the Bill of Rights, the First Amendment:

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

So, not only does the federal government not want you to have any money, they also don't want you going anywhere or associating with other citizens. Because of COVID-19, the government has "suggested" people congregate at distances of six feet apart. Many states have outlawed meetings or congregations of 10 or more people, some, five or more. They don't want you to get together with your fellow citizens, either.

As you wait for your money from the government, ask yourself if $1200 is worth having your first amendment rights taken away. As with anything else that sounds too good to be true, like free money from the government, there are strings attached.

And, while you're pondering that, how about those small business loans that are supposed to help businesses that have been forced to close so that the coronavirus doesn't spread. Those non-essential businesses are getting the run-around from the very same banks (JP Morgan Chase, Citi, Bank of America, Wells Fargo) that were bailed out in 2009, continued to get favors from the Federal Reserve and the federal government since then, and have been getting oodles of cash over the past six months, even before the COVID-19 crisis.

Those loans are full of boondoggles and conditions that limit how much a business qualifies for and what they have to do in order to receive a loan and more conditions for loan forgiveness. It's likely that most small businesses would be better off not taking the loans, toughing it out, filing for reorganization under bankruptcy laws and moving forward without inept government assistance.

The American public is being conned and abused by the very people they voted into office along with the media, the banks, and the Federal Reserve. State and local governments are only marginally less disrespectful. It all stinks to high heaven.

They don't respect you. They don't care about you. They want to control you. That should be obvious to everybody by now.

At the Close, Wednesday, April 8, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,433.57, +779.71 (+3.44%)
NASDAQ: 8,090.90, +203.64 (+2.58%)
S&P 500: 2,749.98, +90.57 (+3.41%)
NYSE: 10,902.59, +365.54 (+3.47%)

Senate Approves $2.2 Trillion COVID-19 Relief Bill, Sends to House; Unemployment Claims Skyrocket to 3,283,000

Editor's Note: This edition of Money Daily was purposed delayed until after the weekly unemployment claims figures came out at 8:30 am ET Thursday. The regular report follows this headline news.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial unemployment claims for the week ending March 21 rose to a record 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. An enormous jump in claims was widely expected.

Money Daily will have complete reporting on how this affected the markets in Friday morning's report.

---

Simply put, Wednesday was just a replay or extension of Tuesday's rally, without as much drama or conviction on the part of investors, witnessed by the rapid descent in the final hour of trading. The Dow lost more than half of the day's gains. The NASDAQ ended up in the red after being up more than 250 points in early afternoon trading.

In other words, this rally ran out of steam via the old, "buy the rumor, sell the news" meme. The "rumor" was the Senate's $2.2 trillion national bailout and rescue plan for COVID-19 (very convenient). The "news" is that it was not passed by the full Senate during market business hours. Instead, the aged Senators stayed up well past their bedtimes again, passing the bill around 11:00 pm ET.

The fact that the Senate's 96-0 passage of the bill will coincide perfectly with the next "buy the rumor, sell the news" item - the weekly unemployment claims number at 8:30 am ET Thursday morning, will no doubt leave open to speculation that the timing was anything but coincidence.

Leaving the barn door just slightly ajar, the House of Representatives still has to vote on the measure passed by the Senate before it goes to President Trump for his signature. If he does get a crack at putting pen to paper on this one, it will allow for a huge influx of capital to individuals, families, and businesses, both big and small. It will also destroy any chance of the federal budget coming in with anything less than a $2 trillion deficit this year (fiscal year ends September 30), and next.

Most Americans will receive either a check or direct deposit in the amount of $1,200. Married couples will get $2,400, plus another $500 for each dependent child. The media says that 90% of the people in this country will get such a check, which is a telling figure. It speaks loudly to the wealth distribution in America when only 10% are making enough to not receive a check of any amount. People making more than $75,000 in 2018 or 2019 will get less than the full amount. There's a cap at $99,000 for individuals and $198,000 for married couples. Those will get nothing. In general terms, there's proof that only 10% of Americans are making more than $99,000 a year. No wonder Bernie Sanders and other democrats receive such strong support for "wealth redistribution."

All that aside, Thursday is looking like a bloodbath for the Bulls, as the unemployment figures will almost certainly be record-setting. Estimates range from 860,000 new claims (UBS) to four million (4,000,000) (Citi). The prior high was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982. If this were a betting game, Money Daily would be at or above the high figure provided by analysts at Citi. There's a chance it could be six million. New York alone could be over a million, ditto California.

As for other markets, bonds, precious metals, and oil were relatively stable on the day. The 10-year note seems to have found a sweet spot with a yield around 0.85%.

Gold looks to be consolidating above $1600 per ounce, though there are widespread reports that nobody can find even a one ounce bar at that price. Dealers have been scrambling for the last two weeks to fill orders and many are completely sold out. The same is true for silver, though to a lesser extent. The miners can produce silver faster than gold, so supplies are being replenished, but they will be bought up as soon as they're available.

Order fulfillment times for physical gold and silver bullion, coins, and bars are running three weeks and longer. Silver, on the spot or futures market is stabilizing around $14.50, but prices on eBay (which means almost immediate shipment) and through dealers are much higher.

Single one-ounce silver bars on ebay have been flying high, with prices ranging anywhere from $22 to as high as $41.

WTI crude is settling into a range between $22 and $24 per barrel and that price should persist and possibly go lower as the COVID-19 plague spreads and slows movement commerce worldwide. Gas prices in the US are a multi-year lows.

Stocks are not going back to record levels despite the Dow gaining ground for the second straight day. Tuesday and Wednesday were the first time the Dow saw back-to-back gains since February 3-6, when it strung together four straight wins. Finishing on the upside two days straight hadn't happened over the past 31 sessions.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 25, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 21,200.55, +495.64 (+2.39%)
NASDAQ: 7,384.29, -33.56 (-0.45%)
S&P 500: 2,475.56, +28.23 (+1.15%)
NYSE: 9,961.38, +303.06 (+3.14%)

Following Massive Declines, Wall Street, Global Markets Brace For Recessions, Bankruptcies, Deficits

With most of America and parts of the rest of the world on lockdown in an attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus, international markets and Wall Street investors suffered stunning losses even with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates essentially to zero and promoting a heavy dose of quantitative easing Sunday night.

The world awoke to a different place on Monday, one in which social distancing was preferred over social networks, toilet paper was more valued that commercial paper, and sheltering in place triumphed over going anyplace.

US indices encountered the worst point losses ever and the largest percentage declines since the 1987 crash which sent stocks reeling by 22 percent. Back then, there were no "circuit breakers" as are in place today, so the waves of selling were allowed to just continue until trading ended.

Monday's journey into the depths of despair began with futures going limit down (-5%) prior to the opening bell, after the Fed panicked and sent the federal funds to 0.00-0.25%, and launched a massive bond-buying binge, otherwise known as QE. None of that helped. In fact, the Fed's emergency actions, coming right before a planned FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, sent a signal that all was not well and that liquidity was at the top of the Fed's agenda.

Having credit markets seize up, as they did in the 2008 rout, would be an economic disaster in itself, exacerbated by the effects of trying to tame the coronavirus, people out of work, events cancelled, life, as it used to be known, utterly changed, but for how long, nobody knows.

When the opening bell rang on Wall Street, trading was halted almost instantaneously, with the S&P 500 declining seven percent, setting off the first circuit breaker for the third time in the past two weeks. After a fifteen minute pause, stocks reopened, collapsed below the seven percent mark, but never made their way to the next circuit breaker, at -13%, until after 3:30, when the circuit breakers are effectively "turned off" in the final 25 minutes of trading.

As President Trump spoke at the White House, stocks continued to tumble into the close, saved by some spirited short-covering minutes before 4:00 pm ET.

Elsewhere, markets in Europe and Asia were likewise battered, with just about the entire world's markets already in bear markets and likely to fall further. The dangers for stocks are varied, but essentially fall into three areas. First, supply chain disruptions stemming from China and elsewhere grinding production to a halt. Second, even if corporations have goods or services to sell, the virtual lockdown of more than half the global population is causing a demand shock. Third, having employees working from home or furloughed will wreak havoc on underlying corporate structures and the general economy.

If the severe measures being taken now don't contain the spread of the virus in two to three weeks - in itself a damaging amount of time - and quarantines are put in place for longer, the economic effect could be devastating, no matter how much money the government wants to throw the way of the corporate class. It is individuals that are being most adversely affected. Federal government plans don't include any relief for the people who contribute 70% of GDP. The government will instead seek to bail out large corporations, figuring that if they are kept afloat, jobs will be saved, which is, of course, hogwash, because there will be nothing to stop cash-strapped corporations from laying off employees by the thousands.

With bars, restaurants, night clubs, and casinos being ordered to shut down, layoffs have already begun. On Monday, New York State's unemployment website crashed as thousands rushed to apply for benefits. Americans have been living hand-to-mouth, paycheck-to-paycheck for decades and now they're expected to ride out an economic shutdown at home, with their kids and spouses and no income for weeks, maybe months. The federal government should be making plans to offer relief to individuals in the form of direct payments, forbearance on loans, mortgages, and credit cards. Giving money to businesses is not the most efficient way to ease the pain and suffering of families and individuals. Direct assistance would be more beneficial, but, from the squabbling already firing up on capitol hill over the federal government's relief package, it's unlikely that any significant money will find its way down to the family or individual level.

So, with markets due to open Tuesday (up slightly) within minutes, looking ahead for any positive news is a fool's errand. The Fed meeting Tuesday and Wednesday is now a non-event, and Thursday's first look at new unemployment claims could be an eye-opener, though next week's will probably be more impactful.

There's a good chance for a bounce today, but all rallies should be sold into at this point. No sense in catching falling knives nor beating dead horses.

At the Close, Monday, March 16, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 20,188.52, -2,997.10 (-12.93%)
NASDAQ: 6,904.59, -970.28 (-12.32%)
S&P 500: 2,386.13, -324.89 (-11.98%)
NYSE: 9,567.53, -1,284.45 (-11.84%)

JP Morgan Says No Recession This Year; Professional Handicappers Likely To Want Some of That Action

What catches the eye this morning is the headline on Yahoo! Finance, "Recession odds haven't been this low in 15 months."

That's remarkable for any number of reasons, chief among them the idea that somebody actually calculates odds on whether or not the US GDP is going to go negative for two consecutive quarters (the classic definition of a recession) and the idea that these odds are so low.

The article goes on to tell that it's JP Morgan making the odds, as their quantitative model of the US economy is in a very positive state. The firm makes odds at 3:1 that the US economy will enter a recession this year. So, anyone wishing to plunk down a shekel, drachma, euro, or yen on JP Morgan's table would get three back if the economy tanks. It would not be too much of an assumption to think that Morgan would hold the bet, put it in an interest-bearing account and make a few bucks in the interim as the earliest this could possibly pay out would be well after the end of the second quarter, like August, or, in the event that a recession occurred in the thrid and fourth quarter, the firm could be holding the dough until well into 2021.

Anyone of the belief that the US economy will not turn down, gets short-ended to the tune of 1:3, putting up three units to make one. Morgan would surely like that wager, being that they'd be holding - and investing - three times the amount of the potential payout. It's always good for the house that punters like favorites. It's also well known amongst the brotherhood of gamblers that favorites only pay out 1/3 of the time at race tracks and less than half the time on flat wagers on say, sporting events.

Unless one has a doom and gloom attitude toward investing, the favored play would be the short side, even though the payout will be minimal. According to the boys at Morgan, this is about as sure a thing as Muhammad Ali in a 15-rounder against a 120-pond nun.

We'll pass. Oddsmakers are notorious for being wrong. Just ask Joe Namath, quarterback of the 1969 Jets, who went into Super Bowl III as a 15-point underdog, guaranteed a victory and managed to beat the heavily favored Baltimore Colts, 16-7. It's almost a sure thing that the analysts at JP Morgan are equally clueless about putting up ridiculous numbers on the chance of recession when the real issue is how long the continued depression will carry forward.

According to James Rickards, famous gold investor, the US economy has been in a depression at least since 2008, when the entire global economic structure came within 23 trillion dollars of complete meltdown. Those 23 trill were supplied after the fact by our friends at the Federal Reserve and their friends at other central banks. Rickards' assertion is that the US economy suffered a near-death experience in 2008 and economic activity, though not negative for long, has been sub-par, which qualifies, in his mind, as a depression.

He's got plenty of evidence to back up his claim, notably the Great Depression of the 1930s, in which GDP mostly grew year-over-year, but at a snails pace, not keeping up with population growth or inflation. Today's situation is different, in that population growth in the US is pretty much stagnant, but GDP growth since then has been bolstered by changes in definition and plenty of funny money printed up by the Fed. The 2-2.5 percent growth that has been the hallmark of the past 12 years has not kept pace with inflation, the official numbers be damned.

With evidence piling up that coronavirus will continue to spread and that industrial production and unemployment may have peaked, there's at least a distinct possibility that US GDP will slow to about 1.5 to 1.7 percent for 2020. While there may not be a recession, the economy is almost certain to struggle with slack demand caused by fear of catching something worse than the flu. People can't be blamed for not wanting to get sick or dying, but they will be, with certain segments of the population eschewing the occasional night out on the town, attending a sporting event or generally avoiding close human contact.

When the coronavirus (COVID-19) claims a few lives in the US, watch the panic. It's already well underway in China, with Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong about to be sharing the sentiment. The virus will plague the US and many other nations, particularly those in Europe, already on the brink of an actual recession, because quarantines have not been sufficiently enforced on most travel, particularly by air.

The virus has shown to have an incubation period of anywhere from five to 24 days, so there are likely multiple carriers everywhere. In a few weeks time, the number of reported cases will begin to spike in non-Asian countries and then it will be too late. The big hope is that warmer weather will slow the spread, as it usually does with these kinds of infectious diseases.

We'll see. But, if you're looking for better odds, better head to the race track. Long shots often arrive at the wire in time.

At the Close, Thursday, February 20, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,219.98, -128.05 (-0.44%)
NASDAQ: 9,750.96, -66.21 (-0.67%)
S&P 500: 3,373.23, -12.92 (-0.38%)
NYSE: 14,061.48, -25.65 (-0.18%)

Wuhan Flu Can't Stop Stocks; January Added 225,000 Jobs

Stocks made reasonable gains on Thursday in advance of the monthly non-farm payroll data released Friday prior to the market open.

The news was solid for US employment, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 225,000 new jobs in the month of January, far outpacing expectations of 165,000.

Entering into the job market in January were 500,000 looking for work, though not all of them found it. The influx of new job seekers boosted the jobless rate to 3.6 percent, from a 50-year low of 3.5 percent in December.

On mainland China, both the death count and number of new cases of coronavirus, or Wuhan Flu, as it is now becoming known more colloquially, continued to rise, but the Chinese government announced that the number of people under observation was declining. This, according to Chinese officials, is an important turning point in efforts to control the spread of the virus. How well that prediction works out for the country of 1.2 billion people remains to be seen.

The roller coaster ride that has recently been Tesla stock abated, at least for a day, with shares of the electric car company settling around a price of $750 per unit. Whether that level proves to be support or resistance is another guessing game. Many are still short the stock, believing that the company is built largely on sand and promises, while rumors of a secondary offering continue to swirl.

President Trump lambasted his foes and praised his friends in a pair of very pubic appearances on Thursday, the day after the Senate voted overwhelmingly (2/3rds vote needed) in favor of acquittal from the charges of impeachment leveled against him by a partisan, Democrat-led House of Representatives. At a prayer breakfast, Trump had no kind words for Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, nor Mitt Romney, the only Republican to cast a vote of guilty against him.

Later in the day, Trump assembled members of the House, Senate, his legal team and others, in a round of congratulations and thanks that lasted well over an hour. Singling out many of his political allies with stories and minutia, Trump laid the groundwork for what is likely to be a counter-attack against the Democrats who tried to have him removed from office and public life, setting the stage for a wide open election campaign that will hold nothing back.

Politics, like money, is a hardball business and the Trump team intends to use the best equipment and the best players to take it to the opposition in the fall.

At the Close, Thursday, February 6, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 29,379.77, +88.92 (+0.30%)
NASDAQ: 9,572.15, +63.47 (+0.67%)
S&P 500: 3,345.78, +11.09 (+0.33%)
NYSE: 14,034.95, +10.09 (+0.07%)

January Effect In Force; US Adds 160,000 Jobs In December

Stocks rallied once again, with the Dow jones Industrials popping for a gain of over 200 points. The Dow closed higher for the fourth time in six 2020 sessions for a total rise of 418 points, or about 1.4%.

The Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ set new all-time highs on a closing basis, while the NYSE Composite index finished just shy of a record, ending the session at 13,997.65. The prior high of 14,001.13 was achieved on January 2. Any kind of positive return Friday should push the Composite into record territory.

Investors should get their "Dow 30,000" hats ready, because the world's most-watched stock index is about to surge beyond that number, quite possibly today right at the open after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported an additional 145,000 jobs created in December according to the just-released non-fram payroll report for December, 2019.

Even though there's some seasonality to the figures due to holiday hires and a fall-off after November's gains were boosted by striking GM workers returning to their jobs, the number is another sign of strength in the underlying US economy, now, more than ever, the main driver of global growth. As Europe struggles with deflationary trends, negative interest rates, and high unemployment (especially among youths), and China increasingly seems to be bowing to pressure on tariffs and trade from the US, America's clout has become paramount.

Among developed nations, the United States continues to set the agenda, as President Trump's "America First" strategy has emboldened employers and workers alike to share in the positivism of the current environment. While wage growth is still sluggish, job creation in the private sector continues strong. Wednesday's ADP private payroll report found 202,000 new jobs created in December.

While the 145,000 jobs in the non-farm payroll report did come in below estimates of 160,000, the miss was not significant. October was revised 4,000 lower, to 152,000, and payrolls in November were revised down 10,000 to 256,000.

Unemployment remained steady at 3.5%, as expected. By sector, retail and leisure/hospitality led the gains, with bricks and mortar stores adding 41,000 jobs while restaurants, hotels and such added 40,000. Health care was another gainer, picking up 28,000 jobs in December. Construction trades added 20,000 new positions, but manufacturing and transportation declined, by 12,000 and 10,000, respectively. For all of 2019, manufacturing added 46,000, while transportation gained 57,000.

Those two sectors are offering indications that the expansion may have run its course, or at least is slowing significantly. In 2018, manufacturing added 264,000 jobs, transportation gained 216,000. While those figures may cause some anxiety, they also can be interpreted as a sign that these segments of the economy are still integrating the additional employees and that this period is merely a lull, following a robust hiring round.

Overall, despite the small miss and reductions from prior months, the report still comes in as positive for the US economy. Perhaps not the robust growth expected by the most bullish, but stable hiring is a sign that, in such a mature economy, nothing troubling lies directly ahead.

The jobs report was good enough to keep the rally humming along. The major indices should continue their path through record highs for time being.

At the Close, Thursday, January 9, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,956.90, +211.81 (+0.74%)
NASDAQ: 9,203.43, +74.18 (+0.81%)
S&P 500: 3,274.70, +21.65 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,997.65, +63.21 (+0.45%)

War Is Good For the Market, So Is Peace, Or Baseball, Or Beer, Or...

Fearing that a possible escalation of hostilities in the Middle East could spill over to affect the US economy, stocks opened sharply lower on Monday. Gold, silver and crude oil futures were bid higher.

As the day wore on, stocks regained their footings, the precious metal and oil rallies evaporated and eventually all the US indices closed well into positive territory.

None of that was by accident.

Consider the stock market a proxy narrative for the American impulse emotions. Fear, greed, tranquility, volatility, are all rolled into one great tableau of the American experience, especially when there's trouble on the horizon. Monday's action consisted of mandatory panicked selling as the day began, the hand of calm mid-morning, and eventually the all-clear sign that nothing bad will happen, in a "we got this" kind of virtue-signal, sending stocks higher, where they're supposed to be going in our vast and glorious economy.

It all happens without public comment nor input because large shareholders control enormous amounts of stock and with that, the ability to move markets in whichever non-random ways they desire. A tweak to an algo here, a few well-timed block trades there, and entire averages can move in not-so-mysterious ways.

Especially since the disasters of the 2000 dot-com bust and the 2007-09 sub-prime implosion, there's been a vested interest in this country to keep the charts moving in a left to right, upward=headed, diagonal line.

That's not an accident, either.

Because there is so much wealth and so much of the future concentrated almost exclusively in stocks, the markets cannot be allowed to wither. We've witnessed this same happenstance over and over and over again, on a daily basis in times of crisis, and with a more elongated time expanse when it comes to policy issues like the direction of interest rates, presidential politics, tax cuts, or long-range unemployment trends.

If the US kills an Iranian general and some other people who happen to be in the wrong place at the right time, stocks may take a temporary hit. The Dow may drop 100 or 200 points, but it will be back on its game by the afternoon, or maybe within the next day or two.

If the US sends 200,000 troops to Iraq or Iran to squelch - once and for all - an evil regime, stocks may initially descend, but in the long term, they will outperform the underlying economy. See charts from 2003-2005 for example, of how the Gulf War boosted stocks out of a deep hole.

While it doesn't have to be this way, that's just the way it is, and the sooner one comes to the rationalization that the markets are handled, mangled, and managed, the sooner one can come to grips with the deficiencies in one's own portfolio.

Whether this is good or not is a debatable point, but what is not a subject ripe for speculation is the fact that holders of large amounts of underlying securities can make markets move in whatever direction they please. And for now, that direction - make no mistake about this - is up.

At the Close, Monday, January 6, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,703.38, +68.50 (+0.24%)
NASDAQ: 9,071.46, +50.70 (+0.56%)
S&P 500: 3,246.28, +11.43 (+0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 13,941.80, +24.75 (+0.18%)

Stocks Struggle Second Straight Monday; Paul Volker Passes

In what is beginning to look like a recurrent theme, stocks struggled to open the week, with all the major US indices down on the day.

This is the same condition that prevailed last week. Stocks were down hard to start the week, only to be rescued on Friday by a surprisingly good jobs report.

That may not be the case this time around. There will be no salvation by numbers later on the week. Market participants will have to deal with the troika of incessant impeachment hearings, troubling trade talks, and fruitless Federal Reserve operations.

It's no secret that the Fed has opened the spigots again, starting in September with what they're currently calling "not QE," a series of open market operations conducted on a daily basis that was originally intended to ease the malaise in overnight lending markets, and, while still performing that function, has morphed into another monstrosity, already having increased the size of the Fed balance sheet by some $300 billion.

And this will go on at least through the first quarter of next year, and probably further, because once the Fed shuts down the free money booth, there will be carnage, which is not to say there won't be carnage beforehand or that they will ever be able to completely close down their operations of largesse to the yield-starved banks.

Beyond the ordinary absurdities that has become the financial world, a moment of pause was given to mourn the passing of former Fed Chairman Paul Volker, who served in that post from August 1979 to August 1987, under presidents Carter and Reagan. Widely credited as the man to defeat the high inflation of the 70s and 80s through the use of tight money controls and ridiculously high interest rates, Volker was first seen as ridiculous, then hated, and finally emerged an American hero, rescuing the US economy from a terrific bout of inflation, unemployment, and a deep recession - caused, in part, by his raising of the federal funds rate from 11% to a record 20% - in 1981-82, that lasted 16 months.

Volker died Sunday. He was 92.

At the Close, Monday, December 9, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,909.60, -105.46 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ: 8,621.83, -34.70 (-0.40%)
S&P 500: 3,135.96, -9.95 (-0.32%)
NYSE Composite: 13,555.07, -33.22 (-0.24%)

Non-Farm Payrolls Up 266,000 In November, Unemployment At 50-Year Low

Since markets stalled out on Thursday in anticipation of the November non-farm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it's prudent to focus on what that report says about the US economy and prospects going forward.

Released at 8:30 am ET, the report concluded that there was an increase of 266,000 jobs created in November. That was well beyond all expectations, which centered around 185,000. The gain was the largest since January of this year, but is somewhat misleading since it includes 46,000 workers at GM plants in Michigan and Kentucky returning from a 40-day strike.

So, a more reliable, realistic number would be around 220,000, which is still much better than expected, and puts to rest the notion that the US job market had stalled out.

Wall Street is expectedly ebullient over the big surprise number which shows that the US economy is still moving forward and that the labor market remains tight. Unemployment dropped to a 50-year low of 3.5%

Another encouraging sign was wage growth, which shot up 3.1%. This is a strong signal that the economy is in good shape and that the labor market is tight. Employees are asking for - and receiving - pay increases and better benefits from employers.

A main takeaway from the retail sector in the pre-holiday period was that a mere 2,000 jobs were added, but the catch is in the distribution of that small gain. Within the industry, employment rose in general merchandise stores (+22,000) and in motor vehicle and parts dealers (+8,000), while clothing and clothing accessories stores were decimated, losing 18,000 jobs.

Attributable to the "Amazon effect" and to great strides over the years to online merchandising, as well as the overabundance of clothing outlets and their reliance on such a narrow segment, it is not surprising that purveyors of shirts, slacks, dresses, and accessories were hardest hit. Heightened competition in the space and slim profit margins due to heavy discounting also contributed to the demise of a good number of chains.

Among major chains that largely will be turning out the lights - or have already done so - in 2019 were Payless Shoes, Gymboree, Fred's, Charlotte Russe, Shopco.

Forever 21, Dressbarn, and Gap stores also announced a high number of store closings over the past year. The trend will continue, with as many as an additional 75,000 stores potentially lost by 2026, according to investment bank UBS.

The trend is clear. Shop online or at general merchandise retailers. The glory days of single sector retailing are long past.

At the Close, Thursday, December 5, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 27,677.79, +28.01 (+0.10%)
NASDAQ: 8,570.70, +4.03 (+0.05%)
S&P 500: 3,117.43, +4.67 (+0.15%)
NYSE Composite: 13,482.30, +24.33 (+0.18%)

Why Stocks Are Unlikely To Go Any Higher

Forget about today's Fed Minutes. Forget about corporate third quarter earnings lowing to markets this week and next, and for the next month.

Forget all the gains made over the past nine years. The market has peaked, and there's good reasons to believe that and data to back it up.

First of all, stocks are wildly overvalued. By many measures, US equities are priced at the highest point they've ever been. Higher than during the dotcom phase, higher than the subprime wildness, stocks today are carrying just plain stupid valuations, like they are darling growth stocks with improving bottom lines. Many are not.

As an example, take Coca-Cola (KO) a standard of the Dow Industrials for many long years. KO is not a growth stock. It's an income stock with a dividend of 1.56, yielding a healthy 3.46% on its share price of around 45. But, here's the kicker. The P/E of Coca-Cola is a whopping 82. That's a number usually reserved for hot tech start-ups, not globally-engaged, long-in-the-tooth mature companies. It's a ridiculous situation because as the price of the stock falls, the dividend yield will rise, making it the attractive investment it is today.

But it's not. If Coke goes from 45 to 35 in a year or two, the dividend yield will be in a higher range. Revenue is falling. Earnings may be stable due to stock buybacks, which is a hidden portfolio killer. Other stocks like Coke exist, like McDonald's, Home Depot, Goldman Sachs, or just about half of the Dow Industrials.

If the simple overvaluation isn't enough to keep people from dumping their money into stocks, then there's the economic data, like unemployment, currently at 3.7%, which is an historic low. Economists generally consider anything below five percent as full employment because there are always a certain number of people changing jobs, retiring, or otherwise out of the employment market.

Inflation is moderate, but interest rates continue to rise, thanks to the Fed. Their rate hikes are putting a much needed brake on what could be a runaway speculative stock market and maybe already is. The Fed isn't going to suddenly stop raising rates, so, as 2018 winds down as a very dull year for stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities, 2019 is shaping up to be even worse.

IN many ways, President Trump's promise to "Make America Great Again" may already have been kept. America is pretty great already. Anything more would be Nirvana. We've reached a peak. It's time to slow down a little. Recessions are healthy because they clear out excess malinvestment, like Sears, which recently filed for bankruptcy protection. Or Toys 'R Us, which went belly up last year but had been a zombie company for many years prior to its implosion.

There are other issues as well, from political turmoil in Europe, to trade tensions, to the huge credit bubble that's affecting individuals, businesses, and governments. They're all over-leveraged and deeply indebted.

For these reasons, stocks can't really go much higher, if at all. The bull run is coming to an end, but that's not necessarily bad news, it just means that investors will have to be more disciplined if they hope to profit.

Dow Jones Industrial Average October Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
10/1/18	26,651.21	+192.90	+192.90
10/2/18	26,773.94	+122.73	+315.63
10/3/18	26,828.39	+54.45	+370.08
10/4/18	26,627.48	-200.91	+169.17
10/5/18	26,447.05	-180.43	-11.26
10/8/18	26,486.78	+39.73	+28.47
10/9/18	26,430.57	-56.21	-27.74
10/10/18	25,598.74	-831.83	-859.57
10/11/18	25,052.83	-545.91	-1405.48
10/12/18	25,339.99	+287.16	-1118.32
10/15/18	25,250.55	-89.44	-1207.76
10/16/18	25,798.42	+547.87	-659.89
10/17/18	25,706.68	-91.74	-751.63

At the Close, Wednesday, October 17, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,706.68, -91.74 (-0.36%)
NASDAQ: 7,642.70, -2.79 (-0.04%)
S&P 500: 2,809.21, -0.71 (-0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 12,613.05, -32.90 (-0.26%)