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Friday, March 12, 2010
Thursday, March 11, 2010
No Change Must Be Good
Nothing much of importance happened today, giving market participants yet another opportunity to do what they've been doing for nine of the last twelve sessions: bid stocks higher.
There must be something quite enticing about owning stocks nowadays because there seems to be no shortage of buyers. Whatever the reasons, stocks continue to add to gains, day after day after day. It's becoming something of a bore.
Suppose the congress went home for a month, two months, six months, or just simply hung around and enacted no new legislation. Suppose the Fed kept short term interest rates permanently at zero. Suppose government debt was paid for with more government debt and that banks could continue to keep poisoned, rotten assets off their balance sheets.
Add in real unemployment at about 16%, 15% of all homeowners either behind on mortgage payments or already in foreclosure.
We'd have exactly the conditions we have today, though how all of that relates to being positive for stocks or the more general economy is a quizzer.
As for that final piece of the puzzle, the 15% of the "better off" homeowners in America falling behind, that info comes via the Mortgage Bankers Association, a group which should know the reality of homeownership, in this Washington Post article from February 20, 2010. Maybe you missed it.
The key passages are these:
"About 9.47 percent of all borrowers were delinquent on mortgages during the fourth quarter, according to a survey. The number is down slightly from the previous quarter, the highest on record, but was the second-highest level ever seen. An additional 4.58 percent of homeowners were somewhere in the foreclosure process.
This means that about 15 percent, or 7.9 million mortgages, were in trouble during the quarter, according to the industry group. It is the highest level recorded by the survey, which has been conducted since 1972, and up from 11 percent, or 6.4 million loans, during the corresponding period in 2008."
That is simply not encouraging.
As for unemployment, the weekly initial claims data was released early today, showing another 462,000 people filed new claims in the most recent reporting period. There were also more than 4,500,000 people still collecting unemployment benefits and congress just approved another extension. There are people out there who have been receiving benefits since March, 2008. Maybe you know some of them.
The 9.7% unemployment rate the government likes to tout is a neat fabrication which doesn't include "discouraged" workers or those who have taken lower-paying part-time jobs. As claimed earlier, real unemployment is about 16% of the available labor pool. It's much higher for specific groups, such as teens and minorities.
Somehow, all of this makes stocks good investments. Sorry, but some of us disagree. Anybody buying stocks with real money these days is simply gambling, and much of what's out there appear to be bad bets.
Dow 10,611.84, +44.51 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,368.46, +9.51 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,150.24, +4.63 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 7,353.21, +25.54 (0.35%)
Advancers beat down decliners, 3690-2702. New highs beat new lows, 563-51. That gap will begin to slowly decline. By August or September, possibly sooner, new lows should retake the advantage. Volume continued at a trickle. Goldman Sachs alone is probably responsible for 30% off all the trading volume on the exchanges, possibly as much as 45%.
NYSE Volume 5,093,085,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,093,398,875
Commodity prices moderated. Oil only gained 16 cents, but is priced now at $82.25 per barrel. Gold was absolutely flat, at $1108.10. Silver gained 15 cents, to $17.17.
There will be a reckoning for the current rallying folly. And it really is foolishness of a high degree. Stocks are close to recent highs, so when were we supposed to buy stocks? When they were high? We all know the answer to that question.
Friday will bring some economic data. Retail sales for February, along with the Michigan Sentiment survey for March and January business inventories will cumulatively tell us that nothing is going on in one way or another.
Stocks will rise again.
There must be something quite enticing about owning stocks nowadays because there seems to be no shortage of buyers. Whatever the reasons, stocks continue to add to gains, day after day after day. It's becoming something of a bore.
Suppose the congress went home for a month, two months, six months, or just simply hung around and enacted no new legislation. Suppose the Fed kept short term interest rates permanently at zero. Suppose government debt was paid for with more government debt and that banks could continue to keep poisoned, rotten assets off their balance sheets.
Add in real unemployment at about 16%, 15% of all homeowners either behind on mortgage payments or already in foreclosure.
We'd have exactly the conditions we have today, though how all of that relates to being positive for stocks or the more general economy is a quizzer.
As for that final piece of the puzzle, the 15% of the "better off" homeowners in America falling behind, that info comes via the Mortgage Bankers Association, a group which should know the reality of homeownership, in this Washington Post article from February 20, 2010. Maybe you missed it.
The key passages are these:
"About 9.47 percent of all borrowers were delinquent on mortgages during the fourth quarter, according to a survey. The number is down slightly from the previous quarter, the highest on record, but was the second-highest level ever seen. An additional 4.58 percent of homeowners were somewhere in the foreclosure process.
This means that about 15 percent, or 7.9 million mortgages, were in trouble during the quarter, according to the industry group. It is the highest level recorded by the survey, which has been conducted since 1972, and up from 11 percent, or 6.4 million loans, during the corresponding period in 2008."
That is simply not encouraging.
As for unemployment, the weekly initial claims data was released early today, showing another 462,000 people filed new claims in the most recent reporting period. There were also more than 4,500,000 people still collecting unemployment benefits and congress just approved another extension. There are people out there who have been receiving benefits since March, 2008. Maybe you know some of them.
The 9.7% unemployment rate the government likes to tout is a neat fabrication which doesn't include "discouraged" workers or those who have taken lower-paying part-time jobs. As claimed earlier, real unemployment is about 16% of the available labor pool. It's much higher for specific groups, such as teens and minorities.
Somehow, all of this makes stocks good investments. Sorry, but some of us disagree. Anybody buying stocks with real money these days is simply gambling, and much of what's out there appear to be bad bets.
Dow 10,611.84, +44.51 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,368.46, +9.51 (0.40%)
S&P 500 1,150.24, +4.63 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 7,353.21, +25.54 (0.35%)
Advancers beat down decliners, 3690-2702. New highs beat new lows, 563-51. That gap will begin to slowly decline. By August or September, possibly sooner, new lows should retake the advantage. Volume continued at a trickle. Goldman Sachs alone is probably responsible for 30% off all the trading volume on the exchanges, possibly as much as 45%.
NYSE Volume 5,093,085,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,093,398,875
Commodity prices moderated. Oil only gained 16 cents, but is priced now at $82.25 per barrel. Gold was absolutely flat, at $1108.10. Silver gained 15 cents, to $17.17.
There will be a reckoning for the current rallying folly. And it really is foolishness of a high degree. Stocks are close to recent highs, so when were we supposed to buy stocks? When they were high? We all know the answer to that question.
Friday will bring some economic data. Retail sales for February, along with the Michigan Sentiment survey for March and January business inventories will cumulatively tell us that nothing is going on in one way or another.
Stocks will rise again.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Oy! Tech Keeps Stocks on the Upswing
Tech stocks continued to dominate the gainers once again as stocks continued their month-long ascent. The NASDAQ easily outpaced the other major averages. Investors are coming to realize that tech companies are more financially capable and less in debt than their traditional industrial, material or financial counterparts.
It goes to reason, since most of the strong tech companies - Apple, Cisco, Amazon in particular - are young and have little to no debt service, separating them in material ways from other companies which may be struggling with finances, debt service, bond issuance and legacy costs (pensions, health care, etc.).
The general economy is still somewhat in a confused state of non-denial. While most indicators are benign or improving - other than housing and employment (Is there anything else that matters?) - sentiment remains steadfastly cautious. It actually has set up a nice paradigm for traders, especially those with more guile and shorter time horizons. In other words, the majority of the market is running on momentum, a tricky mistress, which can turn on a dime.
So long as stocks continue to gain in value, I'll reassert that they're not sufficiently discounting the future, which looks horrid. The government's plan seems to be to continually kick the can further down the road, applying patches along the way. There cannot be stability or prosperity until the government sector cleans up its act and tackles the issues of debt and entitlements head on, something few elected officials wish to do.
Eventually, piling debt upon debt is going to cause an implosion and dislocation, as it did in the fall of 2008. Current policies are leading to more spectacular failures, as exposure is now greater and includes not only financial institutions, but government entities such as the Fed, Treasury, and the unmentionable messes contained within Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the soon-to-flame-out FHA.
Fixed income gains are increasingly scarce and many unstable. Witness the note redemptions by Fannie and Freddie on defaulted mortgages within MBS, tight spreads and few alternatives. Flat-lining fixed income is inducing more equity investment, forcing stocks higher, eventually to unsustainable levels. It's a no-win, unless you're completely in cash because of declining asset values almost everywhere else. The stock market is nothing more than a chimera, an abstraction of the global economy and plenty of opinions. Short-term gains are possible. So are permanent losses.
Dow 10,567.33, +2.95 (0.03%)
NASDAQ 2,358.95, +18.27 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,145.61, +5.17 (0.45%)
NYSE Composite 7,327.67, +33.65 (0.46%)
Winners beat losers, 4325-2192. New Highs: 773; New Lows: 51. Volume was substantially better than recent sluggish sessions. Lots of stock changed hands, but movement was constrained.
NYSE Volume 6,089,594,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,502,965,000
Oil posted another ridiculous gain of 51 cents, to $82.09, despite another in a series of inventory builds. The energy complex is wickedly overpriced and reversion is a certainty. Current prices cannot be maintained with reduced demand levels. Gold fell $14.10, to $1,108.20. Silver dipped 3 cents to $17.31.
Economic data has been slim and incapable of providing direction.
It goes to reason, since most of the strong tech companies - Apple, Cisco, Amazon in particular - are young and have little to no debt service, separating them in material ways from other companies which may be struggling with finances, debt service, bond issuance and legacy costs (pensions, health care, etc.).
The general economy is still somewhat in a confused state of non-denial. While most indicators are benign or improving - other than housing and employment (Is there anything else that matters?) - sentiment remains steadfastly cautious. It actually has set up a nice paradigm for traders, especially those with more guile and shorter time horizons. In other words, the majority of the market is running on momentum, a tricky mistress, which can turn on a dime.
So long as stocks continue to gain in value, I'll reassert that they're not sufficiently discounting the future, which looks horrid. The government's plan seems to be to continually kick the can further down the road, applying patches along the way. There cannot be stability or prosperity until the government sector cleans up its act and tackles the issues of debt and entitlements head on, something few elected officials wish to do.
Eventually, piling debt upon debt is going to cause an implosion and dislocation, as it did in the fall of 2008. Current policies are leading to more spectacular failures, as exposure is now greater and includes not only financial institutions, but government entities such as the Fed, Treasury, and the unmentionable messes contained within Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the soon-to-flame-out FHA.
Fixed income gains are increasingly scarce and many unstable. Witness the note redemptions by Fannie and Freddie on defaulted mortgages within MBS, tight spreads and few alternatives. Flat-lining fixed income is inducing more equity investment, forcing stocks higher, eventually to unsustainable levels. It's a no-win, unless you're completely in cash because of declining asset values almost everywhere else. The stock market is nothing more than a chimera, an abstraction of the global economy and plenty of opinions. Short-term gains are possible. So are permanent losses.
Dow 10,567.33, +2.95 (0.03%)
NASDAQ 2,358.95, +18.27 (0.78%)
S&P 500 1,145.61, +5.17 (0.45%)
NYSE Composite 7,327.67, +33.65 (0.46%)
Winners beat losers, 4325-2192. New Highs: 773; New Lows: 51. Volume was substantially better than recent sluggish sessions. Lots of stock changed hands, but movement was constrained.
NYSE Volume 6,089,594,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,502,965,000
Oil posted another ridiculous gain of 51 cents, to $82.09, despite another in a series of inventory builds. The energy complex is wickedly overpriced and reversion is a certainty. Current prices cannot be maintained with reduced demand levels. Gold fell $14.10, to $1,108.20. Silver dipped 3 cents to $17.31.
Economic data has been slim and incapable of providing direction.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Premature Celebration
Yesterday, all anyone could talk about was the one-year anniversary of the market bottom. This was all the fashion on America's financial network, CNBC, where the usual suspect hosts were gushing with numbers and statistics about the "rally" off the bottom from March 9, 2009. Jim Cramer, the Mad Money host and serial bull%*( artist, even adorned his set with a cake replete with candles.
Sad to say, but the celebratory theme was a day early, as today, by most calendars, is March 9, not yesterday, and the market was responsive, at least in the early going, as investors kept shoveling money into stocks, pushing the Dow up 60 points at its zenith.
However, right around 2:30 in the afternoon, some people were apparently having second thoughts, and the rally was truncated, eventually sending all of the major indices briefly into the red shortly after 3:00 pm. Cooler heads, we suppose, prevailed in the end, with stocks finishing with small gains on low volume.
One wonders where markets are headed now that the "recovery" is underway. Or is it? The stock market rally of the past 12 months was built on bailout money, cheap credit and arguably depressed prices. We stand today at something approaching fair value, yet bulls abound. It seems to be something approaching heresy to suggest that stocks should correct, take a breather or cool off in some fashion. That would not please investors, understandably, but these markets have been so hot for so long, values have become distorted and bubbles - those things that caused the '08 collapse - could be developing once again.
We don't have Alan Greenspan around to suggest that markets are experiencing "irrational exuberance." He's been replaced by the scholarly Mr. Bernanke, who's been forced into a no-win condition at the Fed with the federal funds rate at zero and the balance sheet bloated with toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that still nobody wants to own at face value. It's likely that Mr. Bernanke would like to raise interest rates a little bit, but he is so bound to keeping them low and keeping the fledgling recovery going that he dare not make a move, at least not presently. Eventually, however, he must raise rates, and when he does, the chorus of booing and hissing from Wall Street will probably be heard on the Santa Monica Pier.
Of course, now that the double-dip argument has been roundly discredited, nothing could be better for stocks and the economy than a nice, relaxing hiatus. Profits could be taken and reinvested in other companies at lower prices, but that idea is still anathema to those who only know one way for stocks to go... up, up, and away.
Today's brief selling might be a clue for investors as to what lies ahead, not immediately, but maybe four to six months from now. If the economy isn't absolutely humming along by then, there will surely be a sell-off, so, let's make sure the pom-pom waving gets more furious and animated over the coming weeks.
Dow 10,564.38, +11.86 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,340.68, +8.47 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,140.44, +1.94 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,294.02, +1.49 (0.02%)
On the session, advancing issues held sway over decliners, 3631-2870. There were fewer new highs than expected, and fewer than yesterday, though their level remains elevated at 740. There were just 59 new lows, though these numbers may begin to fall into more normal patterns as comparisons will increasingly become less stark. Low volume remains a major issue, today being no exception, though it was better than most recent efforts. There simply is not the same level of participation or enthusiasm as there was prior to the collapse.
NYSE Volume 5,802,183,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,558,147,000
Commodity market did actually act somewhat rationally today. Oil lost half a buck, to $81.37, still overpriced by almost any metric. Gold lost $2.20, to $1,121.80, but silver gained 6 cents, to $17.33.
The paucity of economic data leaves investors with little to trade upon, making major moves in either direction difficult, though the bulls remain firmly in control.
Sad to say, but the celebratory theme was a day early, as today, by most calendars, is March 9, not yesterday, and the market was responsive, at least in the early going, as investors kept shoveling money into stocks, pushing the Dow up 60 points at its zenith.
However, right around 2:30 in the afternoon, some people were apparently having second thoughts, and the rally was truncated, eventually sending all of the major indices briefly into the red shortly after 3:00 pm. Cooler heads, we suppose, prevailed in the end, with stocks finishing with small gains on low volume.
One wonders where markets are headed now that the "recovery" is underway. Or is it? The stock market rally of the past 12 months was built on bailout money, cheap credit and arguably depressed prices. We stand today at something approaching fair value, yet bulls abound. It seems to be something approaching heresy to suggest that stocks should correct, take a breather or cool off in some fashion. That would not please investors, understandably, but these markets have been so hot for so long, values have become distorted and bubbles - those things that caused the '08 collapse - could be developing once again.
We don't have Alan Greenspan around to suggest that markets are experiencing "irrational exuberance." He's been replaced by the scholarly Mr. Bernanke, who's been forced into a no-win condition at the Fed with the federal funds rate at zero and the balance sheet bloated with toxic mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that still nobody wants to own at face value. It's likely that Mr. Bernanke would like to raise interest rates a little bit, but he is so bound to keeping them low and keeping the fledgling recovery going that he dare not make a move, at least not presently. Eventually, however, he must raise rates, and when he does, the chorus of booing and hissing from Wall Street will probably be heard on the Santa Monica Pier.
Of course, now that the double-dip argument has been roundly discredited, nothing could be better for stocks and the economy than a nice, relaxing hiatus. Profits could be taken and reinvested in other companies at lower prices, but that idea is still anathema to those who only know one way for stocks to go... up, up, and away.
Today's brief selling might be a clue for investors as to what lies ahead, not immediately, but maybe four to six months from now. If the economy isn't absolutely humming along by then, there will surely be a sell-off, so, let's make sure the pom-pom waving gets more furious and animated over the coming weeks.
Dow 10,564.38, +11.86 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,340.68, +8.47 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,140.44, +1.94 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,294.02, +1.49 (0.02%)
On the session, advancing issues held sway over decliners, 3631-2870. There were fewer new highs than expected, and fewer than yesterday, though their level remains elevated at 740. There were just 59 new lows, though these numbers may begin to fall into more normal patterns as comparisons will increasingly become less stark. Low volume remains a major issue, today being no exception, though it was better than most recent efforts. There simply is not the same level of participation or enthusiasm as there was prior to the collapse.
NYSE Volume 5,802,183,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,558,147,000
Commodity market did actually act somewhat rationally today. Oil lost half a buck, to $81.37, still overpriced by almost any metric. Gold lost $2.20, to $1,121.80, but silver gained 6 cents, to $17.33.
The paucity of economic data leaves investors with little to trade upon, making major moves in either direction difficult, though the bulls remain firmly in control.
Monday, March 8, 2010
NASDAQ Trading at 18-Month highs; S&P Streak Ends at Six
A year ago tomorrow, the NASDAQ bottomed out at a closing price of 1268.64. With today's finish, it has gained a whopping 84% from the low, so, one must ask just how much more upside is there left?
Investors seem to be pondering that on a daily basis, picking stocks with much more care than in the pre-Lehman days, another level the NASDAQ has surpassed. The last time the index was at this level was September 3, 2008 (2333.73), but it is only 18.5% below the high of October 31, 2007 - the last market top - of 2859.12. It's difficult to imagine that the investments underlying the NASDAQ would be worth 81% of what they were before the market collapsed and the world realized that asset values were over-inflated, but, apparently, the mindset of the typical trader in tech believes in the marvels of technology and the value of equity in these companies.
Being realistic, any group of stocks which gains 84% in a year is probably overvalued, but the inverse is also probably true: that the same group of stocks should probably not have lost 55% in value over an 18-month span. Since neither of these scenarios are normal, the idea that the stock market is in the middle of an extraordinarily perverse period would be an astute observation. When normalcy returns (whenever that may be, possibly never), a reversion to the mean would be the order of the day, putting the entire NASDAQ market at a level approaching the midpoint of the extremes, or, right around 2063.88.
The timing of such an event would again be conditioned on the time-lines of both the fall and subsequent rise: 18 months to the downside and 12 months of gains, making the midpoint to attain equilibrium at half of the derivative times of those, or 7 1/2 months from tomorrow (the midpoint between 6 and 9 months). Checking the calendar, we should expect the NASDAQ to close around 2063 on or about November 10, 2010. (Make sure to mark that date and this post and check back)
The preceding was issued to show just how absurd and arcane any and all quantitative or qualitative analysis of the markets can be. You can go ahead and believe the concoction that spewed out of the top of my little pinhead or just chalk it up to more internet nonsense. The upshot is that I'll probably end up being as correct with my prediction than 50% of the other analysts, name-droppers and outright frauds who populate the stock media today. It gets worse with forex and options trading, so, consider yourself lucky that you are only invested in equities and thus, only mildly confused.
Dow 10,551.91, -14.29 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,332.21, +5.86 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,138.31, -0.38 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 7,291.58, -0.27 (0.00%)
Advancing issues outdid decliners by a margin of 3676-2857. New highs hit an expected extreme of 806, compared to just 70 new lows. The number of new highs should peak tomorrow or within the next few days at somewhere North of 850, but probably no higher than that. Once we cross the Rubicon that is the one-year anniversary of the market bottom tomorrow, all comparisons become more difficult. Gains will surely be difficult to attain and the chances for a major correction - or a mean revision, as outlined above - increase every day these lofty equity levels are maintained.
One should bear in mind that 2009 was witness to the most powerful stock market rally most of us will ever see in our lifetimes. Comparisons to earnings during that period when companies had cut staffs and expenses to the barest of bones will be particularly challenging. The time to exit the market is, if not now, shortly, unless you are fully recovered from the shocks of 2008 and early 2009 and still liquid. Then, shoot the works. Hang on until the end. Hey, it's only money. Your money.
Volume today was reportedly the lowest of the year on the consolidated markets. That should raise at least one eyebrow toward thinking that this latest rally off the small January-February correction are close to making a double-top. The NASDAQ is already in the process of making a double-top breakout, though the S&P and Dow are lagging, still below the early January highs. Likewise, the Dow Jones Transportation average has yet to confirm, though with Warren Buffet heavily invested in that sector, it's probably only a matter of time before it launches to new highs.
On the other hand, seasoned pros will take one look at the charts and tell you that you missed the move. They'd probably be right.
NYSE Volume 4,092,305,250
NASDAQ Volume 2,096,990,000
Oil continued its dazzling run to higher prices, up another 26 cents, to $81.76. Gold, however, slipped back $10.70, to $1,124.50. Silver also fell by 11 cents, finishing at $17.27.
Economic data is very light this week, and since we're close to the end of the quarter, earnings releases are practically nil. There isn't much to trade on these days except sentiment, which has grown to about as positive a level as we've seen in three years - perfect timing for a sell-off.
Buy tools, plant seeds, grow your own investments.
Investors seem to be pondering that on a daily basis, picking stocks with much more care than in the pre-Lehman days, another level the NASDAQ has surpassed. The last time the index was at this level was September 3, 2008 (2333.73), but it is only 18.5% below the high of October 31, 2007 - the last market top - of 2859.12. It's difficult to imagine that the investments underlying the NASDAQ would be worth 81% of what they were before the market collapsed and the world realized that asset values were over-inflated, but, apparently, the mindset of the typical trader in tech believes in the marvels of technology and the value of equity in these companies.
Being realistic, any group of stocks which gains 84% in a year is probably overvalued, but the inverse is also probably true: that the same group of stocks should probably not have lost 55% in value over an 18-month span. Since neither of these scenarios are normal, the idea that the stock market is in the middle of an extraordinarily perverse period would be an astute observation. When normalcy returns (whenever that may be, possibly never), a reversion to the mean would be the order of the day, putting the entire NASDAQ market at a level approaching the midpoint of the extremes, or, right around 2063.88.
The timing of such an event would again be conditioned on the time-lines of both the fall and subsequent rise: 18 months to the downside and 12 months of gains, making the midpoint to attain equilibrium at half of the derivative times of those, or 7 1/2 months from tomorrow (the midpoint between 6 and 9 months). Checking the calendar, we should expect the NASDAQ to close around 2063 on or about November 10, 2010. (Make sure to mark that date and this post and check back)
The preceding was issued to show just how absurd and arcane any and all quantitative or qualitative analysis of the markets can be. You can go ahead and believe the concoction that spewed out of the top of my little pinhead or just chalk it up to more internet nonsense. The upshot is that I'll probably end up being as correct with my prediction than 50% of the other analysts, name-droppers and outright frauds who populate the stock media today. It gets worse with forex and options trading, so, consider yourself lucky that you are only invested in equities and thus, only mildly confused.
Dow 10,551.91, -14.29 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,332.21, +5.86 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,138.31, -0.38 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 7,291.58, -0.27 (0.00%)
Advancing issues outdid decliners by a margin of 3676-2857. New highs hit an expected extreme of 806, compared to just 70 new lows. The number of new highs should peak tomorrow or within the next few days at somewhere North of 850, but probably no higher than that. Once we cross the Rubicon that is the one-year anniversary of the market bottom tomorrow, all comparisons become more difficult. Gains will surely be difficult to attain and the chances for a major correction - or a mean revision, as outlined above - increase every day these lofty equity levels are maintained.
One should bear in mind that 2009 was witness to the most powerful stock market rally most of us will ever see in our lifetimes. Comparisons to earnings during that period when companies had cut staffs and expenses to the barest of bones will be particularly challenging. The time to exit the market is, if not now, shortly, unless you are fully recovered from the shocks of 2008 and early 2009 and still liquid. Then, shoot the works. Hang on until the end. Hey, it's only money. Your money.
Volume today was reportedly the lowest of the year on the consolidated markets. That should raise at least one eyebrow toward thinking that this latest rally off the small January-February correction are close to making a double-top. The NASDAQ is already in the process of making a double-top breakout, though the S&P and Dow are lagging, still below the early January highs. Likewise, the Dow Jones Transportation average has yet to confirm, though with Warren Buffet heavily invested in that sector, it's probably only a matter of time before it launches to new highs.
On the other hand, seasoned pros will take one look at the charts and tell you that you missed the move. They'd probably be right.
NYSE Volume 4,092,305,250
NASDAQ Volume 2,096,990,000
Oil continued its dazzling run to higher prices, up another 26 cents, to $81.76. Gold, however, slipped back $10.70, to $1,124.50. Silver also fell by 11 cents, finishing at $17.27.
Economic data is very light this week, and since we're close to the end of the quarter, earnings releases are practically nil. There isn't much to trade on these days except sentiment, which has grown to about as positive a level as we've seen in three years - perfect timing for a sell-off.
Buy tools, plant seeds, grow your own investments.
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