Dow 10,154.43. +56.53 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,198.23, +19.18 (0.88%)
S&P 500 1,071.25, +6.37 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 6,739.64. +30.13 (0.45%)
Volume was absurdly low. Advancer beat decliners, 3971-2424. New highs surpassed new lows by a count of 163-133, which, due to the skewed NASDAQ readings (78 new lows, 16 new highs) bears more consideration. In wide, absurd, general terms, NASDAQ companies are younger, more intuitive and more likely to be managed by entrepreneurial types with less business knowledge and experience than their peers in, say, the Fortune 500.
If the case is that these companies are unable to meet obligations because of the horrid and deplorable banking situation in the US, thus scaring off investors and fomenting failure, then it should come as no surprise that the banking, credit and financing system in the United States of America is a miserable failure, and that the only companies receiving funding of any kind are the largest and most-deeply-entrenched in the hopelessly-corrupted and dysfunctional political system.
It is an untenable condition that cannot continue without severe repercussions, to business and polity alike. Innovation and enterprise cannot be constrained by either governmental will not banking constriction. As necessary as mother's milk to newborn creatures, capital remains essential, and without it, no enterprise can prosper, much less survive.
The ridiculous situation into which the Federal Reserve Bank has painted itself - free money and no lending - can, and actually has, maintained itself for much longer than most financially-minded individuals would have thought possible. How much further the Fed and its other friendly central banks can sustain the pantomime performance is a matter of pure conjecture. It could end tomorrow as easily as sometime in the next year, but it will end, as do all performances, good, bad or otherwise unremarkable. And when it does, there will be chaos, and all assets will lose value, some more than others.
US stock markets, and by inference, global markets, are headed for a spectacular crash within the next two days to six months, almost with 100% certainty. The imbalances in the global economic diaspora are too great for anyone rational to come to any other conclusion. By November, equities should be flattened to levels heretofore unthinkable. If there's any need for proof, simply follow the travails of Bank of America (BAC), a company too big to fail, which has failed.
There is no amount of money (it being all of the fiat variety and based upon nothing other than the good word of a given government, almost all of which have been proven to be utterly craven, corrupt and transitory throughout history) that can save Bank of America. The company owns enormous amounts of non-performing loans and continues to operate with a balance sheet in which most of the "bad" assets are not accounted for, those being on off-balance instruments and subject to laughable "mark-to-market" accounting rules.
Bank of America should have been liquidated last year or the year before, surely as soon as it acquired Countywide, the absolute root of the financial collapse, but, by government fiat, it was allowed to continue along with a good number of its large banking brethren, "for the good of the country" or some other brackish backwash as that.
It is a dead entity, a zombie, and of no further use to the general welfare of either its investors or its creditors. It should be broken up, dismantled and sold for parts. I believe Dr. Nouriel Roubini stated this very same argument, possibly as long ago as early 2009, maybe even sooner.
Wipe Bank of America and Citigroup off the landscape of corporations and the rebuilding of the global economy can begin... after a few thousand other banks go down in a heap with them.
Oh, and by the way, if our weenie Attorney General Holder doesn't put the screws to BP for the life of their company, then the American people should simply stop paying taxes. The damages to our sovereign lands and waters done by this company are already in excess of $100 billion, to say nothing of the harm to commerce. If AG Holder isn't up to the task of holding this rogue company responsible, then he has no place in his position.
NASDAQ Volume 1,759,521,250
NYSE Volume 4,697,778,000
Oil was higher by 53 cents, to $76.54. Gold lost $6,30, to $1,181.70. Silver fell 24 cents, to $17.53. Check with me later, but by October, oil should be below $65 a barrel, gold should be around $1045 or lower and silver should be hovering around the $14 level.
That's all I've got for now. See you tomorrow.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
SMASHING! Stock Hammered as Banks, Google Disappoint
The first week of second quarter earnings season actually came to an abrupt end on Tuesday, when all the major indices topped out after a six day rally. Wednesday and Thursday were flat-lined, as nervous investors jockeyed in and out of equities. With options expiring on Friday, the stage was set for a near-panic sell-off, and it was a doozy.
When Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) followed JP Morgan Chase's lead with unsettling results prior to Friday's open, the trade was set and sellers pounded stocks in the opening minutes. Just before 10:00 am, the university of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index delivered another in a series of economic blows, as the gauge fell from 76.0 in June, to 66.5 for the current month. The rout was on, as the Dow soon dipped down 200 points from the previous close.
There was no relief for stockholders in a relentless grind lower which lasted through the end of the session.
For the week, all f the major indices ended with losses, as the Dow finished 100 points lower, the NASDAQ shed 17 points, the S&P 500 surrendered 13 points and the NYSE Composite dropped 99 points.
Dow 10,097.90, -261.41 (2.52%)
NASDAQ 2,179.05, -70.03 (3.11%)
S&P 500 1,064.88, -31.60 (2.88%)
NYSE Composite 6,709.51, -207.30 (3.00%)
As expected, internals told the same stark story. Decliners pounded advancers, 5321-1154, with losers beating winners by a 7:1 margin on the NASDAQ. New highs managed to stay ahead of new lows, 150-124, though that trend is weakening and about to roll over again. Volume was not spectacular, though it was far better then the previous three sessions.
NASDAQ Volume 2,183,108,750
NYSE Volume 6,016,648,500
Stock investors were not alone in their desperation. Commodities were also pummeled in concert with the CPI reading (0.2). Crude for August delivery fell another 61 cents, to $76.01. Gold continued its recent shaky form, losing $20.10, to $1,188.00. Silver followed that lead, dropping 57 cents, to $17.77.
Gold hit its lowest level since May, though it is still well above its 200-day moving average. Silver continues to flirt with its 200-day MA, touching it again today. Any further deterioration in precious metals prices might just spread the panic through the commodity space in a deflationary sell-off.
Bank of America was the Dow's worst performer, losing 1.41, to 13.98, a decline of 9%. Citigroup fell 26 cents, to 3.90, a 6.25% loss. Google, after announcing a slight miss on earnings per share Thursday after the close, was punished with a 7$ decline, off 34.41, to 459.61.
All of this in the middle of earnings season does not bode well for bulls. The next two weeks will be interesting, to say the least, and challenging to see where any support might appear.
When Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) followed JP Morgan Chase's lead with unsettling results prior to Friday's open, the trade was set and sellers pounded stocks in the opening minutes. Just before 10:00 am, the university of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index delivered another in a series of economic blows, as the gauge fell from 76.0 in June, to 66.5 for the current month. The rout was on, as the Dow soon dipped down 200 points from the previous close.
There was no relief for stockholders in a relentless grind lower which lasted through the end of the session.
For the week, all f the major indices ended with losses, as the Dow finished 100 points lower, the NASDAQ shed 17 points, the S&P 500 surrendered 13 points and the NYSE Composite dropped 99 points.
Dow 10,097.90, -261.41 (2.52%)
NASDAQ 2,179.05, -70.03 (3.11%)
S&P 500 1,064.88, -31.60 (2.88%)
NYSE Composite 6,709.51, -207.30 (3.00%)
As expected, internals told the same stark story. Decliners pounded advancers, 5321-1154, with losers beating winners by a 7:1 margin on the NASDAQ. New highs managed to stay ahead of new lows, 150-124, though that trend is weakening and about to roll over again. Volume was not spectacular, though it was far better then the previous three sessions.
NASDAQ Volume 2,183,108,750
NYSE Volume 6,016,648,500
Stock investors were not alone in their desperation. Commodities were also pummeled in concert with the CPI reading (0.2). Crude for August delivery fell another 61 cents, to $76.01. Gold continued its recent shaky form, losing $20.10, to $1,188.00. Silver followed that lead, dropping 57 cents, to $17.77.
Gold hit its lowest level since May, though it is still well above its 200-day moving average. Silver continues to flirt with its 200-day MA, touching it again today. Any further deterioration in precious metals prices might just spread the panic through the commodity space in a deflationary sell-off.
Bank of America was the Dow's worst performer, losing 1.41, to 13.98, a decline of 9%. Citigroup fell 26 cents, to 3.90, a 6.25% loss. Google, after announcing a slight miss on earnings per share Thursday after the close, was punished with a 7$ decline, off 34.41, to 459.61.
All of this in the middle of earnings season does not bode well for bulls. The next two weeks will be interesting, to say the least, and challenging to see where any support might appear.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Yes, That Was the End of the Rally
As queried yesterday, the split decision by the major indices, resulting in paltry gains and losses across the board, appears to have signaled at least a pause of optimism for the markets.
News flows were both good and bad (depending on one's perspective) prior to the open, highlighted by JP Morgan Chase (JPM) trying to get away with reporting second quarter results which included unusual one-time gains. The usual protocol is for one-time charges or gains to be stripped out, as the vast majority of analysts predict on such a basis.
The Financial Times reports that JPM's earnings "Signal end of Wall St. rebound" and even Wall Street darling CEO Jamie Dimon couldn't get away with reporting $1.09 per share, when analysts were seeking 70 cents, excluding one-time charges. JPM decided to pad earnings by lowering their loan-loss reserves by $1.5 billion. Stripping those out, the venerable House of Morgan made 75 cents per share in the quarter, though there were likely other crafty accounting tricks employed.
For their efforts, investors sold off the nation's second-largest bank to the tune of a little more than a point at the lows of the day. When all was said and done, however, and the Wall Street connivers couldn't stand a little decline, all stocks were boosted in a furious final half-hour, which saw the Dow gain about 70 points and JP Morgan close 11 cents higher on the day, closing at 40.46.
The final push was attributed to passage of the long-overdue Financial Regulation bill by the Senate, but stocks finished mixed again. As the Dow and NASDAQ finished higher on Wednesday, today's two winners were the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite, a complete reversal. So, for the past two days, all the markets did was vaporize a lot of money.
Also prior to the open Initial jobless claims for the week reportedly totaled 429,000, down 29,000 from the previous week. Following last week's precipitous drop, continuing claims climbed by almost 250,000 to 4.68 million. Separately, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June fell 0.5% month-over-month, another sure sign that deflation is well-entrenched.
The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index fell to 5.08 in July, from 19.57 in June, a seven-month low.
Industrial production gained 0.1% in June, while Capacity Utilization stalled out at 74.1% over the same span. All of these indicators cause stocks to sell off at the open, but career further and deeper into the red after 10:00 am when the Philadelphia Fed announced that their manufacturing index fell from 8.0 in June to 5.0 in July.
If there isn't a double-dip or recession headed our way, you sure can't tell it from the spate of negative statistics sprouting from every corner of the economy.
Dow 10,359.31, -7.41 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,249.08, -0.76 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,096.48, +1.31 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 6,916.81, +13.45 (0.19%)
Decliners again led advancing issues, 3601-2789, and new highs remained ahead of new lows, 172-71. Volume was weak, owing to the uncertainty of the marketplace.
NASDAQ Volume 1,980,588,625
NYSE Volume 5,214,455,500
Crude oil sold off, losing 66 cents, to $76.62, but gold was higher once more, up $1.30, to $1,208.10. Silver gained 7 cents, to $18.35. All traders in commodities are due for a rude awakening at some point, when deflationary forces can no longer be contained and demand eventually falls off a table. Those not in cash (unlike myself and ardent followers of this blog) should begin shedding all semi-liquid assets, including futures contracts, as all signs point to a resumption of the bear market, though this time bottoms could be severe - far lower than expected.
After the final bell, Google (GOOG) was ravaged as it missed analyst expectations of $6.52, by seven cents, or $6.45 per share. To understand the absurdity of Wall Street, one must realize that Google is among the most profitable companies in the world. GAAP operating income (revenues after expenses) was $2.37 billion, which is a pretty good sum of money for any three-month period. Nonetheless, some traders saw fit to wallop the stock down more than 20 points in after hours trading, or, by more than 4%.
Maybe it was a touch overvalued at $494 a share, or, 22 times earnings. Live and learn.
This earnings season can't be over with already, can it? We've just gotten started. There are sure to be wild gyrations tomorrow on options expiration and over the next two weeks, which will only be fun if you're winning.
News flows were both good and bad (depending on one's perspective) prior to the open, highlighted by JP Morgan Chase (JPM) trying to get away with reporting second quarter results which included unusual one-time gains. The usual protocol is for one-time charges or gains to be stripped out, as the vast majority of analysts predict on such a basis.
The Financial Times reports that JPM's earnings "Signal end of Wall St. rebound" and even Wall Street darling CEO Jamie Dimon couldn't get away with reporting $1.09 per share, when analysts were seeking 70 cents, excluding one-time charges. JPM decided to pad earnings by lowering their loan-loss reserves by $1.5 billion. Stripping those out, the venerable House of Morgan made 75 cents per share in the quarter, though there were likely other crafty accounting tricks employed.
For their efforts, investors sold off the nation's second-largest bank to the tune of a little more than a point at the lows of the day. When all was said and done, however, and the Wall Street connivers couldn't stand a little decline, all stocks were boosted in a furious final half-hour, which saw the Dow gain about 70 points and JP Morgan close 11 cents higher on the day, closing at 40.46.
The final push was attributed to passage of the long-overdue Financial Regulation bill by the Senate, but stocks finished mixed again. As the Dow and NASDAQ finished higher on Wednesday, today's two winners were the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite, a complete reversal. So, for the past two days, all the markets did was vaporize a lot of money.
Also prior to the open Initial jobless claims for the week reportedly totaled 429,000, down 29,000 from the previous week. Following last week's precipitous drop, continuing claims climbed by almost 250,000 to 4.68 million. Separately, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for June fell 0.5% month-over-month, another sure sign that deflation is well-entrenched.
The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index fell to 5.08 in July, from 19.57 in June, a seven-month low.
Industrial production gained 0.1% in June, while Capacity Utilization stalled out at 74.1% over the same span. All of these indicators cause stocks to sell off at the open, but career further and deeper into the red after 10:00 am when the Philadelphia Fed announced that their manufacturing index fell from 8.0 in June to 5.0 in July.
If there isn't a double-dip or recession headed our way, you sure can't tell it from the spate of negative statistics sprouting from every corner of the economy.
Dow 10,359.31, -7.41 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,249.08, -0.76 (0.03%)
S&P 500 1,096.48, +1.31 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 6,916.81, +13.45 (0.19%)
Decliners again led advancing issues, 3601-2789, and new highs remained ahead of new lows, 172-71. Volume was weak, owing to the uncertainty of the marketplace.
NASDAQ Volume 1,980,588,625
NYSE Volume 5,214,455,500
Crude oil sold off, losing 66 cents, to $76.62, but gold was higher once more, up $1.30, to $1,208.10. Silver gained 7 cents, to $18.35. All traders in commodities are due for a rude awakening at some point, when deflationary forces can no longer be contained and demand eventually falls off a table. Those not in cash (unlike myself and ardent followers of this blog) should begin shedding all semi-liquid assets, including futures contracts, as all signs point to a resumption of the bear market, though this time bottoms could be severe - far lower than expected.
After the final bell, Google (GOOG) was ravaged as it missed analyst expectations of $6.52, by seven cents, or $6.45 per share. To understand the absurdity of Wall Street, one must realize that Google is among the most profitable companies in the world. GAAP operating income (revenues after expenses) was $2.37 billion, which is a pretty good sum of money for any three-month period. Nonetheless, some traders saw fit to wallop the stock down more than 20 points in after hours trading, or, by more than 4%.
Maybe it was a touch overvalued at $494 a share, or, 22 times earnings. Live and learn.
This earnings season can't be over with already, can it? We've just gotten started. There are sure to be wild gyrations tomorrow on options expiration and over the next two weeks, which will only be fun if you're winning.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Is This the End of the Rally?
Stocks may have gotten a little ahead of earnings schedule, as there was absolutely no lift to the markets, even after Intel's (INTC) blowout quarter, announced last night after the close.
Struggling all day to find any buying interest, Dow and S&P stocks sent the majority of the day trading just below the flat line, with the NASDAQ sporting slim gains.
After the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 pm, stocks abruptly turned lower, but traders boosted them back to nearly positive by the end of the session, ending with two indices up and two down, though marginally. Overall, the FOMC minutes may have had the most impact, as the opinions expressed revealed that a majority of Fed governors felt that while the economy would not fall into recession again, growth would be moderate and it would take five or six years for the US economy to regain a solid footing.
That kind of sentiment cannot be encouraging to the general sentiment and it showed up immediately in the lackluster trading and rocky internals.
What seems to be most disconcerting to stocks are technical n nature, as the indices are all toying with the space between the 200-day moving average and the 50-day. In each case, the two have crossed, with the 200-day now declining, along with the 50-day. Moving past the 200-day line will take some very positive news, though any gains in such a sloe environment are unlikely to be lasting. It seems as though the entire earnings season has already been wasted on the past six days, in which the indices already gained 7-8%, a big enough move in any environment. Adding to the confusion is options expiration this Friday, which has no doubt contributed in a big way to the sudden upside surge.
Dow 10,366.72, +3.70 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,249.84. +7.81 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,095.17, -0.17 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 6,903.36, -4.42 (0.06%)
Declining issues led advancers, 3535-2828, though new high remained well beyond the reach of new lows, 176-41. It should be noted that at this time last year, stocks surged powerfully, and that should negate any strengthening of new lows for a considerable period. Volume was just about average.
NASDAQ Volume 2,165,528,750
NYSE Volume 4,653,667,000
Stocks weren't the only assets stuck in neutral. Commodities hugged the unchanged mark most of the day. Oil lost 11 cents, closing at $77.04. Gold dropped $6.50, to $1,206.80, while silver added 4 cents, to $18.27.
Financial stocks are next up on the calendar, along with PPI and CPI on Thursday and Friday, respectively. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) reports prior to the open on Thursday, with Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) releasing on Friday.
There have been no major surprises, though retail sales were reportedly weak (not surprising) and Intel's earnings - in an ordinary environment - would have ignited a powerful rally in techs, though none was forthcoming.
An air of extreme caution and pessimism about the future seems to have fully enveloped Wall Street.
Struggling all day to find any buying interest, Dow and S&P stocks sent the majority of the day trading just below the flat line, with the NASDAQ sporting slim gains.
After the FOMC minutes were released at 2:00 pm, stocks abruptly turned lower, but traders boosted them back to nearly positive by the end of the session, ending with two indices up and two down, though marginally. Overall, the FOMC minutes may have had the most impact, as the opinions expressed revealed that a majority of Fed governors felt that while the economy would not fall into recession again, growth would be moderate and it would take five or six years for the US economy to regain a solid footing.
That kind of sentiment cannot be encouraging to the general sentiment and it showed up immediately in the lackluster trading and rocky internals.
What seems to be most disconcerting to stocks are technical n nature, as the indices are all toying with the space between the 200-day moving average and the 50-day. In each case, the two have crossed, with the 200-day now declining, along with the 50-day. Moving past the 200-day line will take some very positive news, though any gains in such a sloe environment are unlikely to be lasting. It seems as though the entire earnings season has already been wasted on the past six days, in which the indices already gained 7-8%, a big enough move in any environment. Adding to the confusion is options expiration this Friday, which has no doubt contributed in a big way to the sudden upside surge.
Dow 10,366.72, +3.70 (0.04%)
NASDAQ 2,249.84. +7.81 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,095.17, -0.17 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 6,903.36, -4.42 (0.06%)
Declining issues led advancers, 3535-2828, though new high remained well beyond the reach of new lows, 176-41. It should be noted that at this time last year, stocks surged powerfully, and that should negate any strengthening of new lows for a considerable period. Volume was just about average.
NASDAQ Volume 2,165,528,750
NYSE Volume 4,653,667,000
Stocks weren't the only assets stuck in neutral. Commodities hugged the unchanged mark most of the day. Oil lost 11 cents, closing at $77.04. Gold dropped $6.50, to $1,206.80, while silver added 4 cents, to $18.27.
Financial stocks are next up on the calendar, along with PPI and CPI on Thursday and Friday, respectively. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) reports prior to the open on Thursday, with Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) releasing on Friday.
There have been no major surprises, though retail sales were reportedly weak (not surprising) and Intel's earnings - in an ordinary environment - would have ignited a powerful rally in techs, though none was forthcoming.
An air of extreme caution and pessimism about the future seems to have fully enveloped Wall Street.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
All Aboard! CSX Prompts 6th Straight Day of Gains
This is what earnings season is all about.
Investors and traders have waited patiently through two months of severe selling for days in which stocks could outshine a slew of negative economic reports, and it appears - for some, at least - that the waiting is finally paying off.
Stocks surged for the 6th straight session after rail operator, CXS reported strong earnings after Monday's close, citing net income gains of 36% in the second quarter, beating analysts' expectations. Revenue grew 22% to just below $2.7 billion.
Despite the strong report, shares of CSX were lower by about 1.5% on Tuesday, but the upbeat sentiment associated with the company, which hauls coal and countless other raw materials, parts and integrated supplies across the United States, gave traders confidence to bid a wide array of stocks higher.
Dow 10,363.02, +146.75 (1.44%)
NASDAQ 2,242.03, +43.67 (1.99%)
S&P 500 1,095.34, +16.59 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 6,907.78, +113.30 (1.67%)
Gains were solid across all of the indices and internals were in line with the headline numbers. Advancing issues pummeled decliners, 5486-1025 (5:1), and new highs soared past new lows, 179-48. Volume, however, was not particularly strong, as reticence among potential stock purchasers remained high.
NASDAQ Volume 2,140,849,750
NYSE Volume 5,288,201,500
Commodities trended mostly higher on the day. Crude oil, on the August futures contract, rose $2.20, to $77.15. Gold gained $14.80, to $1,213.30, while silver was up 34 cents, to $18.24.
Announcements after the close on Tuesday were forthcoming from two important companies in vastly different sectors: Intel (INTC) and Yum Brands (YUM).
Intel achieved a smashing success in the second quarter, the best ever in the company's 41-year history, with gross revenue of $10.8 billion, 67% gross margins, operating Income of $4.0 billion, net Income of $2.9 billion and EPS at 51 cents.
The results were well ahead of Street estimates, and completely overturned year-over-year results. For instance, the 51 cent EPS was 183% better than the second quarter of 2009. The company also was very positive about the remainder of the year, with growth expected across all business units.
Stock players were impressed, as shares rose more than 5% in after-hours trading.
When YUM Brands (YUM), owners of KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, reported second quarter results, sentiment turned decidedly negative. The company beat analyst estimates narrowly, posting EPS of 58 cents, 3 cents better than the 55 cents anticipated, but revised its full-year forecast to $2.43 a share, with Wall Street expectations at $2.48.
This sent the stock tumbling more than 3% in after-hours trading.
These two bellwether stocks demonstrate the cross-currents in the markets quite adequately. While general economic reports - especially those concerning housing and employment - remain a drag on the economy, companies insist that they are lean and profitable, as shown by the results from YUM Brands and Intel.
What is a conundrum for many, however, is the multiple, or PE at which specific companies are trading. Across the S&P 500, the current cumulative PE is about 15, historically high. Intel is right on that number, including this quarter, at 14.45. YUM's trailing PE (using the most recent past four quarters) is an astronomical 19.22.
In other words, it would take 19 years to recoup an investment in YUM Brands based on earnings per share, and just shy of 15 to break even in Intel. In an economic environment beset with an overburden of debt still growing (government) and some being worked off in the private sector, investors may not feel comfortable with such high multiples. That will keep sentiment on the negative side until these multiples come down to levels more in line with the reality of a slow-growing economy. Something in the neighborhood of 9-12 might be suitable, perhaps even lower.
In the small business world, which is arguably more risky, companies rarely sell for more than six times earnings. More often than not, companies sell for three to four times annual earnings, as small business owners seek minimization of risk and quickly recoup their capital. The big business world of Wall Street, operating on a far loftier basis, may be overpriced by a wide degree. Small investors will not stay put in longer term equities with questionable outcomes.
A return to more reasonable valuations would send stocks into a tailspin, though, following on the deflationary backdrop which has been the dominant trend for the past two to three years, a severe correction, on a valuation basis, may be forthcoming.
Investors and traders have waited patiently through two months of severe selling for days in which stocks could outshine a slew of negative economic reports, and it appears - for some, at least - that the waiting is finally paying off.
Stocks surged for the 6th straight session after rail operator, CXS reported strong earnings after Monday's close, citing net income gains of 36% in the second quarter, beating analysts' expectations. Revenue grew 22% to just below $2.7 billion.
Despite the strong report, shares of CSX were lower by about 1.5% on Tuesday, but the upbeat sentiment associated with the company, which hauls coal and countless other raw materials, parts and integrated supplies across the United States, gave traders confidence to bid a wide array of stocks higher.
Dow 10,363.02, +146.75 (1.44%)
NASDAQ 2,242.03, +43.67 (1.99%)
S&P 500 1,095.34, +16.59 (1.54%)
NYSE Composite 6,907.78, +113.30 (1.67%)
Gains were solid across all of the indices and internals were in line with the headline numbers. Advancing issues pummeled decliners, 5486-1025 (5:1), and new highs soared past new lows, 179-48. Volume, however, was not particularly strong, as reticence among potential stock purchasers remained high.
NASDAQ Volume 2,140,849,750
NYSE Volume 5,288,201,500
Commodities trended mostly higher on the day. Crude oil, on the August futures contract, rose $2.20, to $77.15. Gold gained $14.80, to $1,213.30, while silver was up 34 cents, to $18.24.
Announcements after the close on Tuesday were forthcoming from two important companies in vastly different sectors: Intel (INTC) and Yum Brands (YUM).
Intel achieved a smashing success in the second quarter, the best ever in the company's 41-year history, with gross revenue of $10.8 billion, 67% gross margins, operating Income of $4.0 billion, net Income of $2.9 billion and EPS at 51 cents.
The results were well ahead of Street estimates, and completely overturned year-over-year results. For instance, the 51 cent EPS was 183% better than the second quarter of 2009. The company also was very positive about the remainder of the year, with growth expected across all business units.
Stock players were impressed, as shares rose more than 5% in after-hours trading.
When YUM Brands (YUM), owners of KFC, Taco Bell and Pizza Hut, reported second quarter results, sentiment turned decidedly negative. The company beat analyst estimates narrowly, posting EPS of 58 cents, 3 cents better than the 55 cents anticipated, but revised its full-year forecast to $2.43 a share, with Wall Street expectations at $2.48.
This sent the stock tumbling more than 3% in after-hours trading.
These two bellwether stocks demonstrate the cross-currents in the markets quite adequately. While general economic reports - especially those concerning housing and employment - remain a drag on the economy, companies insist that they are lean and profitable, as shown by the results from YUM Brands and Intel.
What is a conundrum for many, however, is the multiple, or PE at which specific companies are trading. Across the S&P 500, the current cumulative PE is about 15, historically high. Intel is right on that number, including this quarter, at 14.45. YUM's trailing PE (using the most recent past four quarters) is an astronomical 19.22.
In other words, it would take 19 years to recoup an investment in YUM Brands based on earnings per share, and just shy of 15 to break even in Intel. In an economic environment beset with an overburden of debt still growing (government) and some being worked off in the private sector, investors may not feel comfortable with such high multiples. That will keep sentiment on the negative side until these multiples come down to levels more in line with the reality of a slow-growing economy. Something in the neighborhood of 9-12 might be suitable, perhaps even lower.
In the small business world, which is arguably more risky, companies rarely sell for more than six times earnings. More often than not, companies sell for three to four times annual earnings, as small business owners seek minimization of risk and quickly recoup their capital. The big business world of Wall Street, operating on a far loftier basis, may be overpriced by a wide degree. Small investors will not stay put in longer term equities with questionable outcomes.
A return to more reasonable valuations would send stocks into a tailspin, though, following on the deflationary backdrop which has been the dominant trend for the past two to three years, a severe correction, on a valuation basis, may be forthcoming.
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