Friday, December 10, 2010

As the World Turns... or, As the Fed Turns the World Into Trash

You really have to hand it to our genius Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke. He's so smart, he managed to lose a couple billion dollars on his recent bond purchases. Not a problem for him, really, he's just another hired hand, but he's now openly adding to the national debt load, which, in case this needs repeating, is completely unpayable and out of control.

How did Uncle Benji lose $2.4 billion in a month, you ask? Maybe announcing the timing of his "buying spree" otherwise known as QE2, in advance, gave the Primary Dealers (those from whom he was purchasing) the opportunity to ramp up interest rates to their benefit (and the public's detriment). Would they do that? would execs at Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley or Merrill Lynch steal your grandmother's purse in broad daylight if she accidentally left it unguarded?

It's exactly what happened. Otherwise, why did interest rates spike the moment the Fed announced their POMO schedule? It's open theft on the American public. May the Fed and all member banks rot in the very worst of hells for eternity.

Making matters even more absurd and detrimental to the health of the US economy, the Fed today announced its latest schedule of market "operations," by which they will monetize another $105 billion of Treasury debt and thus fund the bankrupt banks with more easy money.

Equity markets responded as they should to easy money flows, with gains across the board in the major indices.

Dow 11,410.32, +40.26 (0.35%)
NASDAQ 2,637.54, +20.87 (0.80%)
S&P 500 1,240.40, +7.40 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 7,823.30, +41.16 (0.53%)


Advancing issues overwhelmed decliners, 4334-2199. NASDAQ New Highs: 243; Lows: 28; NYSE New Highs: 203; Lows: 47. Unfortunately, many of the NYSE New Lows were bond funds, many the repositories of municipal pensions. As these lose money, debt crises in the various states continues to grow. In New York, California and Illinois, state budget deficits have reached crisis stage. Volume, overall, was miserable, as normal.

NASDAQ Volume 1,754,129,500.00
NYSE Volume 4,996,264,500


In the commodities space, a bit of a breather. Oil, thankfully, has backed off a bit after flirting with the $90 level, losing another 58 cents today, closing the week at $87.79. Gold's last print was at $1385.80, down $1.20. Silver was also relatively quiet, spending the entire day in the red, though down only 8 cents, at $28.68.

Finishing off a ho-hum kind of week (though admittedly, the Fed has us on the edge of our seats), the following animated video helps explain why JP Morgan Chase is rich, though maybe not for long, and why you should own as much physical silver as you can afford.

Hilarious video of how JP Morgan is up to its neck in short silver contracts with no good way out.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Do Not Watch at Your Own Risk

For those who think Nouriel Roubini (AKA Dr. Doom) is a little too pessimistic, the interview - linked at the end of this post - with John Williams (shadowstats.com) might be a bit much to bear. But, it is highly recommended that anyone with a time horizon of more than six to twelve months view the interview in its entirety (almost nine minutes) and heed well what Mr. Williams says about the future of the United States, hyperinflation, Fed policies and being prepared.

Mr. Williams' site, shadowstats.com, has general commentary on the state of the economy, though more detailed analysis is by subscription only. It's rare to see Williams live, this being one of the few interviews available, but he's a down-to-earth economist who examines the US economy with the bent of a CPA, using GAAP instead of the fuzzy numbers the government likes to throw around.

Just the kind of stuff one needs to hear before venturing out to the mall for Christmas shopping, but, essential viewing if one wishes to survive until, say, 2012.

First a quick recap of the markets:

Dow 11,370.06, -2.42 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,616.67, +7.51 (0.29%)
S&P 500 1,233.00, +4.72 (0.38%)
NYSE Composite 7,782.14, +31.82 (0.41%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,948,935,500
NYSE Volume 4,994,395,500


Obviously, not much to get excited about today, though House democrats did vote no in a caucus on accepting the President's "tax compromise" worked out with Republicans earlier in the week. It's a bit of a snag, especially since the Bush tax cuts expire at year's end and most of the cretins in congress would like to skip out of town in less than two weeks.

Advancing issues beat decliners, 3697-2758. NASDAQ New Highs: 182; Lows: 21; NYSE New Highs: 152; Lows: 28. Volume was poor, especially on the NYSE.

Oil put up a 9 cent gain, to $88.37. Gold recovered some lost ground, gaining $5.70, to $1387.00 on last print, as did silver, up 40 cents, to $28.76.

That's about it. Markets are dull as traders wind down positions at year's end, allowing more time to view the excellent video below.

Click here for John Williams interview.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Bullet Points (no, not real bullets, yet) on the Mid-Week Menage

The noise out in finance-land is becoming deafening. So much, that one can barely keep up with events as they occur. Whether that is the plan of the criminal oligarchs or not, things are sure getting interesting. we present bullet points for today's mass screwing:

  • Overnight, gold and silver are sucker-punched, supposedly by JP Morgan, which is trying to suppress prices of what are now competing currencies. The assault continues into the day (see below).
  • Certain members of the House of Representative express doubts about whether they will vote for the "tax deal" that President Obama and the Republican leadership worked out on Monday.
  • 10-year note yield hits 3.37 midday, backs off to close around 3.24, but is up a full 100 basis points (1%) from just a month ago.
  • Julian Assange, founder and head of WikiLeaks is still being held without bail in UK; lawyer seeks to fight extradition to Sweden where he faces trumped-up charges of "sex crimes."
  • In response to Visa and Mastercard shutting off Assange's access to his money, hackers shut down credit card web sites.
  • Planned bank run in Europe turns into a colossal failure, hardly worth mention.
  • More criticism of Fed's Bernanke interview surfaces, most claiming he lied about "not printing money" and laughable commentary about being 100% sure he can handle his job.
  • China ready to hike interest rates 50 basis points on Friday or Saturday, in direct opposition to Fed's QE2
  • Stocks flounder all day as Fed only monetizes $2.1 billion, smallest POMO in weeks.
  • Market spooked by alleged huge FBI raids on hedge funds, though no arrests occur.

Dow 11,372.48, +13.32 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,609.16, +10.67 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,228.28, +4.53 (0.37%)
NYSE Composite 7,750.32, +10.68 (0.14%)


In opposition to the smallish headline numbers, declining issues outnumbered gainers on the day, 2829-3641. NASDAQ New Highs: 165, Lows: 25; NYSE New Highs: 125, Lows: 28. While the gap between the new highs and new lows is still quite large, the shrinkage today from the advantage the past few weeks is substantial. This indicator has been threatening to roll over for some weeks now, but has yet to do so. When it does - and it eventually will - it will delineate a new down-trend for stocks, one that is very long overdue. Even Bernanke's QE efforts cannot keep a market permanently on an upward bias.

Volume was back to sick, anemic levels once again as nobody wants to trade US stocks, or, at least the number of players in the market has diminished and will probably remain at low levels at least through the new year. Trades of size have only another seven or eight sessions remaining in the year to be made, as the Christmas and New Year's holidays blunt all trades and are normally among the slowest trading days of the year. A run on equities for year end is assumed, as prices are abnormally high and being held in space. Options expiration is still a week away, and could be the day (next Friday, Dec. 17) for capitulation, though today serves as a hint of what's coming.

NASDAQ Volume 1,783,785,000
NYSE Volume 5,241,274,000


Crude oil backed off a little more, losing 41 cents, to $88.28. The damage done in the precious metals markets, however, was more severe, likely the effort of highly-leveraged manipulators (JP Morgan), dropping gold $18.20, to $1382.20 and silver losing another 27 cents, to $28.38. Both gold and silver had made new multi-year highs on Tuesday and the powers that be could not stomach losing so badly on their short positions, thus, the coordinated attack.

For gold and silver bugs, who buy and hold the PMs as hedges against currency risk, the moves were meaningless, actually presenting a buying proposition as global currencies continue their race to the bottom. CNBC hosts asked if the moves were indicative of a bubble, especially in gold, the best contrarian indicator we've seen in some time.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Prepare For More Calamity

The President, Congress and the Federal Reserve finally got together on a unified theory of economics and apparently it is to borrow as much money from anywhere as possible, manipulate markets as much as possible, lie as fervently as possible and hope for the best.

With the "tax deal" done after-hours on Monday, the President bent to the will of the Republicans and sent the Bush tax cuts into permanent status (he says two years, but they'll never raise taxes again), extended unemployment insurance for another 13 months, meaning if you can manage to get laid off now, you're in for a three-year vacation, and to top it off, cut the social security withholding from 6.2% to 4.2%, a whopping 32% tax haircut.

All of this was done after the Tea Party Republicans were ushered into office on a "fiscal responsibility" platform just a month ago. It will be interesting to watch what happens when these newly-minted congress-critters actually are sworn in next month, because, if they're serious, they shouldn't stand for what amounts to a loss of about a trillion dollars in revenue to the feds.

Wall Street responded as it usually does to free money or lower tax regimes, it rallied right out of the gate. But late in he day, something odd happened. The markets suddenly rolled over and headed south, just like commodities - especially oil, gold and silver - did earlier in the session.

By the end of the day, the central planners in Washington and on Wall Street had a real mess on their hands: nobody trading stocks, bonds selling off, forcing yields higher (the Fed and the Govt. will go bust if this happens) and commodities being manipulated lower.

The insider crooks and their political lackeys have pushed the envelope over the proverbial cliff and now face what appears to be a disaster beyond even their control. Rising interest rates will destroy the Fed's balance sheet (QE was designed to do the opposite), absolutely plunge housing into another price collapse worse than what we've already witnessed and bankrupt just about every bank in the nation, to say nothing of the collateral damage done to the rest of the world.

As I've mentioned before on this blog, a deflationary depression may be one of those elements of financial nature that one cannot stop. It's going to happen no matter what. Lives will be lost, careers shattered, banks closed and general malaise will rule for an extended period. The morons running the Ponzi scheme in the financial markets and with tax policy will have to leave the country or face angry mobs who have nothing else to lose.

Pretty picture? Thank yourself for not taking action sooner, or not understanding what's happening or for trusting our government (yes, the one that hasn't done anything of any good for the average working-class person in the last ten years). These people and the coerced media represent the worst parasites in the world. They've ruined the global economy for their own enrichment. It's now every man and woman for his/herself.

I've hinted at this kind of statement in the past, but never actually put it in words: it's now time for Americans to take a stand. Stop paying taxes. Stop working. Stop buying. Just stop the government and the media in their tracks, force the politicians from office and arrest the heads of the largest financial institutions. They are all criminals and traitors and do not represent anything American, by any stretch of the imagination.

Dow 11,359.16, -3.03 (0.03%)
NASDAQ 2,598.49, +3.57 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,223.75, +0.63 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,739.64, -1.05 (0.01%)


Advancers narrowly edged decliners, 3397-3094. There were, due to the ramp up through most of the session, 783 new highs, and just 49 new lows. Volume, due to the bi-directionality (like that word?) of the market was strong.

NASDAQ Volume 1,925,702,500
NYSE Volume 6,967,751,000


The front end oil contract on the NYMEX was over $90/barrel early on, but reversed course and closed with a 69 cent loss, at $88.69. Gold and silver were both hammered mercilessly after the close in New York, by the Fed and their cohorts, JP Morgan, with gold losing $22.60, to $1401.10, while silver was absolutely blasted, losing $1.43, to $28.65 (buy, buy. buy!).

Here's one guy who gets it. The powers that be, both in Washington and Wall Street, cannot contain this much longer. Their schemes are too complex and will eventually implode back upon them either in a massive stock market crash (very high probability), a bond collapse (high probability), hyper-inflation (some probability) or the death-knell of the deflationary depression (high probability, but great for those on the mid-to-lower rungs of the ladder, as it implies debt forgiveness, lower carrying costs and a pretty basic reset).

The past two years have not been a picnic, but the coming three-to-four years seem to be flashing warning signals already. The worst - since there hasn't been any real pain yet - is still to come, and, by the looks of what occurred today, is about to get really serious.

Hold precious metals, keep as much cash on hand and out of banks as possible, hoard food and fuel and pray you and your kids don't get hit by stray bullets. When the shooting starts, it's not likely to end quickly. The guess is who fires the first shot, who gets it in the head and, not if, but now, when.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Silver Soars Over $30 as Europe Prepares for Bank Runs, Bernanke Lies

Our ongoing financial fantasy took a very real turn for the worse Sunday as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appeared in an "exclusive" interview by Scott Pelley on the "60 Minutes" broadcast. (The entire 15 minute report is embedded at the end of this post.

Bernanke has been widely criticized for many of his policies - mostly blunders which favor saving banks instead of liquidating them - but he's received far more criticism than ever before for his recent foray into another round of Quantitative Easing (or, QE2 as it's come to be known). Mr. Bernanke hinted at this move in September, providing upward grease for the equity markets, and than formally announced it in early November, implementing a series of daily permanent open market operations (POMOs) which commenced on November 12 and have continued daily - except for the days immediately before and after Thanksgiving - ever since, contributing 1.5 to 9 billion dollars daily in repurchases of Treasury debt from Primary Dealers (PDs).

What was most troubling about the interview was not what Bernanke said, so much, as how he appeared, trembling, quivering and crossing both his arms and legs at times, in the classic body language "double cross," indicative of those telling outright falsehoods. Bernanke lied that the Fed isn't printing money. He most certainly is, whenever the Fed repurchases Treasury debt. He also was largely lying when he mentioned that unemployment was an effect of education, saying that unemployment among collage graduates was only 5%, and higher for those without college educations.

Sure, he's right to some extent, but ask some of the recent college grads working at part-time jobs, or jobs for which they're overqualified or not working at all, what their job prospects look like. Many college-aged individuals have resorted to staying in school, pursuing post-graduate degrees, hoping that in two or three years the employment situation may be better. No, unemployment is not a function of education. It's a function of there being only one job for every five people looking, and the jobs offered being entry level or part time, at that.

Meanwhile, the Europeans have a new issue with which to deal: the widespread public outcry and rally for a bank run on Tuesday, December 7, promoted by soccer star Eric Cantona. While the banks are probably well-prepared and will likely close branches for a day or so if thing get out of hand, they're unlikely to fail, though the public will send a loud, unmistakable message.

Whether the officials at the control of the world's economy will listen is probably a moot point. They will not; they haven't yet, and probably never will.

Dow 11,362.19, -19.90 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 2,594.92, +3.46 (0.13%)
S&P 500 1,223.12, -1.59 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite 7,740.69, -10.89 (0.14%)


US stocks spent the day hugging the flat line, on low volume. Advancers beat decliners, 3032-2640. New highs bettered new lows, 241-32 on the NASDAQ, 259-8 on the NYSE. Nothing new there at all, with the same names being pumped or dumped for the better part of the past week.

NASDAQ Volume 1,633,755,875.00
NYSE Volume 3,694,626,75


The major news was in the silver market, which has experienced outsize gains over the past three months. Silver last printed at $30.13 spot, up 70 cents. Gold also made a new all-time high of $1422.90, up $8.40. Crude oil futures on the front end contract rose 19 cents, to a new 2010 high of $89.38.

How high can silver go? Most analysts see it doubling in three years, though prices of $100 per ounce and higher are being bandied about as the gold-silver ratio is expected to come back to its historical norm of 16-1.