Just for kicks, here's the opening line to this post without benefit of having seen as much as a stock quote all day:
Stocks flat on low volume.
Let's see how we stack up:
Dow 11,555.03, -18.46 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,667.27, +1.67 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,257.54, +0.77 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 7,920.94, -4.42 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,067,840,625
NYSE Volume 2,203,177,750
Well, prescient, no?
Amazingly, advancing issues swamped decliners, 3637-2817. On the NASDAQ, there were 147 new highs; 13 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 106 new highs, to just 13 new lows. Trading was exceedingly thin, the lowest volume of the year, due to a fierce snowstorm which kept many traders from reaching the floor of the NYSE and the time of year, which always has a negative effect on volume.
Crude oil dipped to $91.00, down 51 cents on the day. Gold bounced around, finally going down 20 cents, to $1384.20 as of this writing. Silver is currently up 7 cents, to $29.29.
There's really no good reason to bother with these thinly-traded equity markets. For much less risk one should be investing in precious metals or one's own business, where the rate of return should easily outperform stocks and/or bonds in good times and especially in bad ones. If one is a good business manager, there is boundless opportunity. Just spare the overhead, keep employees (if you even dare to hire one) to a minimum, work diligently and watch the bottom line.
Any business, unless one is in the wrong line of work or a completely illiquid market, should thrive without much interference from government. That seems to be the major trick - keeping the regulatory agencies and taxing authorities off your doorstep.
America was built on entrepreneurship, vision and perseverance, the last of which is probably the most important. Most businesses fail from lack of persistence in the face of what usually appears as various impediments to survival. In these sad days of the new century, Americans are beginning to suffer from lacks of education, nerve and business acumen. There may be no better time to bootstrap an organization from the ground up, as the politicians are too busy trying to save their jobs and the banking conglomerate is desperate.
With a little pluck and not much capital, Americans may find unique ways to free themselves from wage slavery, the scourge of the nation. All it takes is an idea, some grit, some spit and some attitude. Every household in America should double as home base for a business. It doesn't matter if the business thrives or loses money in the beginning, because the enormous tax benefits of hoe-based businesses will free up more of YOUR money, which the government takes up front in the form of payroll taxes.
Those still treading on the payroll train to nowhere would do well to file a DBA (Doing Business As) with their local county clerk and begin receiving the vast benefits proffered by the US tax code. There are no more home-business-friendly rules in the world.
Just as a hint - and I'm not going to give anyone the entire scope of why having a home-based business is a MUST in these times - start with the deduction from income on the costs of one room (the room which you dedicate to your business). If you live in a two-bedroom apartment with a kitchen, a bath, living and dining room, paying $500/month, making one of those two bedrooms an office - even if you make ZERO net income from your business - allows you to deduct 1/5 of your rent, or $1200 per year, from your gross income. Just this alone, if you're in a 28% tax bracket, will save you $336 in taxes, and that's just for starters.
Imagine if you actually made money from your business. Someday, you might find yourself not worrying about taxes at all, except to shield them from the government like big businesses do, and there are ways.
Wake up and grow up, Americans. The resources are there, the money is out there, what's lacking is the will.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Oil Surpasses $91/Barrel; Otherwise, a Whole Lotta Nothing
The major story today was in commodities, since equities were witness to the slowest trading day of the year. Oil spiked above $91/barrel as gold and silver slid, though not by much. A slew of mostly inconclusive economic data failed to move markets as traders peeled away for an early start to the holidays. US equity markets are closed on December 24.
Dow 11,573.49, +14.00 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,665.60, -5.88 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,256.77, -2.07 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 7,925.36, -6.40 (0.08%)
Decliners beat gainers, 3464-2990. The NASDAQ saw 127 new highs and 14 new lows. There were 146 new highs on the NYSE, to just 11 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,272,585,375.00
NYSE Volume 2,831,742,000
February crude oil futures on the NYMEX spiked $1.03, to $91.51, just in time to raise gas prices on one of the busiest travel weekends of the winter. Gold fell $6.90, to $1,380.50, while silver shed 6 cents, to $29.33. If anything, the precious metals are screaming "buy, buy, buy" at the tops of their lungs. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium have stalled out at elevated levels and are consolidating.
In addition to oil over $90/barrel a death stroke for any kind of economic recovery, the precious metals once more appear to be in a very sweet spot, within percentage points of recent highs, and in the case of gold, an all-time high. They could explode to the upside without any advance notice from their current plateaus. If oil remains persistently above $90 per barrel, watch the PMs advance quickly.
That's all there is. Stocks are a fool's game and fools and their money are soon parted, as the old saw suggests. Gold, silver, arable land, collectibles and rarities and tools of trades are the only safe investments (yes, and canned foods).
Merry Christmas!
Dow 11,573.49, +14.00 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,665.60, -5.88 (0.22%)
S&P 500 1,256.77, -2.07 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 7,925.36, -6.40 (0.08%)
Decliners beat gainers, 3464-2990. The NASDAQ saw 127 new highs and 14 new lows. There were 146 new highs on the NYSE, to just 11 new lows.
NASDAQ Volume 1,272,585,375.00
NYSE Volume 2,831,742,000
February crude oil futures on the NYMEX spiked $1.03, to $91.51, just in time to raise gas prices on one of the busiest travel weekends of the winter. Gold fell $6.90, to $1,380.50, while silver shed 6 cents, to $29.33. If anything, the precious metals are screaming "buy, buy, buy" at the tops of their lungs. Gold, silver, platinum and palladium have stalled out at elevated levels and are consolidating.
In addition to oil over $90/barrel a death stroke for any kind of economic recovery, the precious metals once more appear to be in a very sweet spot, within percentage points of recent highs, and in the case of gold, an all-time high. They could explode to the upside without any advance notice from their current plateaus. If oil remains persistently above $90 per barrel, watch the PMs advance quickly.
That's all there is. Stocks are a fool's game and fools and their money are soon parted, as the old saw suggests. Gold, silver, arable land, collectibles and rarities and tools of trades are the only safe investments (yes, and canned foods).
Merry Christmas!
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Year-End Melt-Up Continues on Low Volume Trading
The monotony of the Fed's POMO-induced stock market rally must be, by now, be putting some investors into a zombie-like coma, wherein they go to their computers and mindlessly punch in more stocks to buy, at market prices. None of them perform any due diligence, glance at fundamentals or look for patterns in the technical charts.
Stock. Buy. Done. Rinse, repeat. Simple as that. There's no other explanation for the unprecedented rise in equities since the beginning of September, but more pronounced in the final month of the year, one which is normally not very volatile.
There are, of course, very few doing this zombie trading. Volume has backed off to some of the lowest levels of the year, in a year that has been branded as one of extremely low volume and interest. Yet, stocks still rise, and, as we mentioned yesterday, some of the biggest gainers are the financial stocks, for reasons still unexplained. The movement in the financial sector is truly from theatre of the absurd. Bank of America, for no apparent reason, gain a full 3% today, putting its December gain at a whopping 18%. That's extraordinary for a company which still has loads of non-performing mortgage loans on its books (somewhere, we're sure of it) and needed $45 billion in TARP money from the government just to stay alive just a year-and-a-half ago.
Dow 11,559.49, +26.33 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,671.48, +3.87 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,258.84, +4.24 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.76, +25.66 (0.32%)
Advancing issues led decliners by a wide margin for the second straight session, 3777-2739. NASDAQ new highs stood at 210, to a mere 25 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 215 new highs, 15 new lows. Those daily new high-low figures have been remarkably similar for the better part of the month, and for good reason. Traders (or computers running arb algos) have ramped in and out of the same stocks for the past few weeks and they have been primary contributors to the upside, which also explains how the indices rise on such paltry volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,627,216,375.00
NYSE Volume 3,900,822,250
Commodity markets were moribund, with the exception of oil, rolling into the February contract up another 66 cents on the day, to $90.48. The pricing in oil is absolutely sick, running $20-30 over normalized pricing due to rampant, unchecked speculation. The attendant rise in the price of home heating oil and gasoline are nothing other than outright theft of American dollars by the oil cartel, comprised not of OPEC nations, but rather gigantic conglomerates, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell.
Gold spent most of the day straddling the flat line, currently down 60 cents, to $1384.90. So too, silver, 15 cents lower, at $29.22.
With just six trading days remaining in 2010 (Markets are closed December 24, but open for a full session on December 31), it appears certain that all of the major indices will end with sizable upside of at least 10% (Dow) and closer to 15% or more on the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
Stock. Buy. Done. Rinse, repeat. Simple as that. There's no other explanation for the unprecedented rise in equities since the beginning of September, but more pronounced in the final month of the year, one which is normally not very volatile.
There are, of course, very few doing this zombie trading. Volume has backed off to some of the lowest levels of the year, in a year that has been branded as one of extremely low volume and interest. Yet, stocks still rise, and, as we mentioned yesterday, some of the biggest gainers are the financial stocks, for reasons still unexplained. The movement in the financial sector is truly from theatre of the absurd. Bank of America, for no apparent reason, gain a full 3% today, putting its December gain at a whopping 18%. That's extraordinary for a company which still has loads of non-performing mortgage loans on its books (somewhere, we're sure of it) and needed $45 billion in TARP money from the government just to stay alive just a year-and-a-half ago.
Dow 11,559.49, +26.33 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,671.48, +3.87 (0.15%)
S&P 500 1,258.84, +4.24 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.76, +25.66 (0.32%)
Advancing issues led decliners by a wide margin for the second straight session, 3777-2739. NASDAQ new highs stood at 210, to a mere 25 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 215 new highs, 15 new lows. Those daily new high-low figures have been remarkably similar for the better part of the month, and for good reason. Traders (or computers running arb algos) have ramped in and out of the same stocks for the past few weeks and they have been primary contributors to the upside, which also explains how the indices rise on such paltry volume.
NASDAQ Volume 1,627,216,375.00
NYSE Volume 3,900,822,250
Commodity markets were moribund, with the exception of oil, rolling into the February contract up another 66 cents on the day, to $90.48. The pricing in oil is absolutely sick, running $20-30 over normalized pricing due to rampant, unchecked speculation. The attendant rise in the price of home heating oil and gasoline are nothing other than outright theft of American dollars by the oil cartel, comprised not of OPEC nations, but rather gigantic conglomerates, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron and Royal Dutch Shell.
Gold spent most of the day straddling the flat line, currently down 60 cents, to $1384.90. So too, silver, 15 cents lower, at $29.22.
With just six trading days remaining in 2010 (Markets are closed December 24, but open for a full session on December 31), it appears certain that all of the major indices will end with sizable upside of at least 10% (Dow) and closer to 15% or more on the NASDAQ and S&P 500.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
You Owe the Fed $312,606.56; Net is Still Neutral; NJ vs. BofA
As Wall Street slowly wends its way to a year end with a blow-off topping Santa Rally, a few news items - that you won't get on CNBC, promise - were worth noting.
First, the Federal Reserve bought another $9.5 billion in Treasuries today, bringing their total to over $1 Trillion, or, for those who like lots of zeroes, $1,000,341,000,000. The Fed passed China as the largest holder of US government debt a few weeks ago, and now has surpassed the magic $1 Trillion mark, making everybody in the country indebted to the Federal Reserve (well, if you believe we are the government and thus responsible for their debt) to the tune of $312,606.56, roughly speaking.
So, rube, pay up!
The second of the day's big issues was the proposed FCC rules on Net Neutrality, or how the government will allow the big media companies to slice up the internet. What the FCC board did was pass, by a 3-2 vote, new rules, which are essentially the same as the old rules, except that they didn't publish them (rumored to be 100 pages long) and they don't apply to wireless services (phones, iPads, etc.). So, really, what they did isn't really news at all, but might be some day, like when the FCC gets sued again because most people don't believe they have the authority to regulate the internet at all. Larry Downes' guest column on Cnet has most of the dirt.
Our third newsy item is really juicy, however. It appears that some judges in New Jersey's Supreme Court haven't taken kindly to being abused and hoodwinked by some of the nation's largest banks.
The court has ordered a halt to all foreclosure proceedings in the state and has given the largest lenders, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, GMAC, Wells-Fargo and OneWest, until the 19th of January, 2011, to “show cause why the processing of uncontested residential foreclosure matters they have filed should not be suspended.”
Apparently, the judges are not convinced that the robo-signing and other frauds perpetrated on the state's courts were mere technicalities and wants the full mea culpa from the banks along with admissions of guilt. This really puts the banks in a tough spot, because they have to honestly and steadfastly assert their positions, which are largely lies and falsehoods about their fatally-flawed foreclosure practices.
Should they fail to convince the justices, they'll face a very long uphill road to ever be heard without prejudice in New Jersey courts. This also opens up the possibility that hundreds of thousands of flawed - and already settled - foreclosures could be reopened if New Jersey's stand becomes a precedent, not only in the state, but across the country.
Get ready for round two of fraudclosure-gate, or whatever they're calling it these days. In a similar vein, the 50 state Attorneys General investigating the foreclosure practices of the biggest banks, have said nothing since rumor broke three weeks ago that they were nearing a settlement with the offending and offensive banks, thus making the current rumor that all deals are off the table, especially since the states of Nevada and Arizona have separately sued Bank of America and Iowa AG Tom Miller, who heads the 50 states' AG investigation, has, together with the US Attorneys office, formed the Iowa Mortgage Fraud Working Group.
The Working Group will "identify and investigate targets for criminal prosecution" and, on the federal level, "will utilize the investigative expertise of agencies such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development--Office of Inspector General (HUD-OIG). Other federal agencies that may participate in the working group include the Secret Service, Internal Revenue Service, United States Postal Inspection Service, and Social Security Administration."
Ouch, double ouch and triple ouch! Of course, Julian Assange, the operator of WikiLeaks, also contends that he has information that could bring down executives from a major bank, widely assumed to be none other than Bank of America, which, from all appearances, may be in need of a bigger bandage. The bank is currently involved in no less than 35 major lawsuits, most stemming from their mortgage business.
The question then arises, why are people buying Bank of America (BAC) stock, or, the shares of any of the big banks embroiled in the mortgage business, like JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells-Fargo (WFC) or Citi (C)?
One would assume, with all of the aforementioned issues, that investors would shun these stocks, yet the reality is that they have been leading the December rally. Since November 30, Bank of America is up 15%; JP Morgan up more than 9% and Wells-Fargo and Citigroup are both up 13%. Either the investor class is being sold a phony bill of goods (wouldn't surprise anybody) or they know something most of the casual-viewing public don't.
They were all up better than two per cent today, leading a broad-based rally.
Dow 11,533.16, +55.03 (0.48%)
NASDAQ 2,667.61, +18.05 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,254.60, +7.52 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 7,906.10, +59.14 (0.75%)
Advancing issues trampled decliners, 4680-1871. NASDAQ new highs were 213, to 26 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led new lows, 257-34. Of course, all of this movement was on dismally-low volume levels.
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,521,625.00
NYSE Volume 3,925,677,000
Oil pushed higher by 45 cents, reaching $89.82. Gold was held in check, losing 30 cents, to $1385.50, while silver posted a two-cent gain, to $29.37. Copper reached an all-time high of $4.3626 per pound, making pennies minted between 1909 and 1982 worth $0.28, nearly triple their face value.
Time to break out the kid's piggy bank?
First, the Federal Reserve bought another $9.5 billion in Treasuries today, bringing their total to over $1 Trillion, or, for those who like lots of zeroes, $1,000,341,000,000. The Fed passed China as the largest holder of US government debt a few weeks ago, and now has surpassed the magic $1 Trillion mark, making everybody in the country indebted to the Federal Reserve (well, if you believe we are the government and thus responsible for their debt) to the tune of $312,606.56, roughly speaking.
So, rube, pay up!
The second of the day's big issues was the proposed FCC rules on Net Neutrality, or how the government will allow the big media companies to slice up the internet. What the FCC board did was pass, by a 3-2 vote, new rules, which are essentially the same as the old rules, except that they didn't publish them (rumored to be 100 pages long) and they don't apply to wireless services (phones, iPads, etc.). So, really, what they did isn't really news at all, but might be some day, like when the FCC gets sued again because most people don't believe they have the authority to regulate the internet at all. Larry Downes' guest column on Cnet has most of the dirt.
Our third newsy item is really juicy, however. It appears that some judges in New Jersey's Supreme Court haven't taken kindly to being abused and hoodwinked by some of the nation's largest banks.
The court has ordered a halt to all foreclosure proceedings in the state and has given the largest lenders, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, GMAC, Wells-Fargo and OneWest, until the 19th of January, 2011, to “show cause why the processing of uncontested residential foreclosure matters they have filed should not be suspended.”
Apparently, the judges are not convinced that the robo-signing and other frauds perpetrated on the state's courts were mere technicalities and wants the full mea culpa from the banks along with admissions of guilt. This really puts the banks in a tough spot, because they have to honestly and steadfastly assert their positions, which are largely lies and falsehoods about their fatally-flawed foreclosure practices.
Should they fail to convince the justices, they'll face a very long uphill road to ever be heard without prejudice in New Jersey courts. This also opens up the possibility that hundreds of thousands of flawed - and already settled - foreclosures could be reopened if New Jersey's stand becomes a precedent, not only in the state, but across the country.
Get ready for round two of fraudclosure-gate, or whatever they're calling it these days. In a similar vein, the 50 state Attorneys General investigating the foreclosure practices of the biggest banks, have said nothing since rumor broke three weeks ago that they were nearing a settlement with the offending and offensive banks, thus making the current rumor that all deals are off the table, especially since the states of Nevada and Arizona have separately sued Bank of America and Iowa AG Tom Miller, who heads the 50 states' AG investigation, has, together with the US Attorneys office, formed the Iowa Mortgage Fraud Working Group.
The Working Group will "identify and investigate targets for criminal prosecution" and, on the federal level, "will utilize the investigative expertise of agencies such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development--Office of Inspector General (HUD-OIG). Other federal agencies that may participate in the working group include the Secret Service, Internal Revenue Service, United States Postal Inspection Service, and Social Security Administration."
Ouch, double ouch and triple ouch! Of course, Julian Assange, the operator of WikiLeaks, also contends that he has information that could bring down executives from a major bank, widely assumed to be none other than Bank of America, which, from all appearances, may be in need of a bigger bandage. The bank is currently involved in no less than 35 major lawsuits, most stemming from their mortgage business.
The question then arises, why are people buying Bank of America (BAC) stock, or, the shares of any of the big banks embroiled in the mortgage business, like JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells-Fargo (WFC) or Citi (C)?
One would assume, with all of the aforementioned issues, that investors would shun these stocks, yet the reality is that they have been leading the December rally. Since November 30, Bank of America is up 15%; JP Morgan up more than 9% and Wells-Fargo and Citigroup are both up 13%. Either the investor class is being sold a phony bill of goods (wouldn't surprise anybody) or they know something most of the casual-viewing public don't.
They were all up better than two per cent today, leading a broad-based rally.
Dow 11,533.16, +55.03 (0.48%)
NASDAQ 2,667.61, +18.05 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,254.60, +7.52 (0.60%)
NYSE Composite 7,906.10, +59.14 (0.75%)
Advancing issues trampled decliners, 4680-1871. NASDAQ new highs were 213, to 26 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs led new lows, 257-34. Of course, all of this movement was on dismally-low volume levels.
NASDAQ Volume 1,680,521,625.00
NYSE Volume 3,925,677,000
Oil pushed higher by 45 cents, reaching $89.82. Gold was held in check, losing 30 cents, to $1385.50, while silver posted a two-cent gain, to $29.37. Copper reached an all-time high of $4.3626 per pound, making pennies minted between 1909 and 1982 worth $0.28, nearly triple their face value.
Time to break out the kid's piggy bank?
Monday, December 20, 2010
Another Nothing Day on Wall Street
Why the market is even open this week is a reasonable question. Trading volumes have been so low for so long that this week will just put a punctuation mark on one of the most tenuous rallies of all time. Stocks on the major indices are all in solidly positive territory for the year, so now is as good a time to ask as any: With stocks up two straight years, what are the chances that 2011 will be another positive?
Well, if you ask some of the heavies on the Street, they'll all give you the same answer. They're 100% positive that stocks will see further gains in 2011, from a low reading by Citigroup with the S&P 500 at 1300, to a high of 1420 by Barclays Capital, other forecasters see gains of 5-14% in the coming year.
Mark Twain once famously said, “Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to reform.” So, since I don't want to be on the wrong side of this issue and since almost everybody in the world believes stocks will have another upside year in 2011, I'll put forth the prospect that stocks are currently 12-15% overpriced and 2011 will be a year in which we will witness a rather healthy decline of 20% or more on the major indices (and I'm being conservative).
Anecdotal evidence shows that since World War II stocks have traded higher three consecutive years only twice, and the gains were quite small. All other times, the markets showed losses in the third year. There are good reasons for this, many of them having to do with the business cycle and nothing to do with the concept that the US hasn't really made it out of recession and is still struggling, though that could be a good argument on its own.
Dow 11,478.13, -13.78 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,649.56, +6.59 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,247.08, +3.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Compos 7,846.96, +11.65 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,728,535,625
NYSE Volume 3,973,126,250
For the session, advancers narrowly topped decliners, 3313-3227. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled 226, to 28 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 208 new highs and 23 new lows. Volume was absurdly low, though expected, this being less than a week before Christmas.
Oil gained 79 cents, to $88.70. Gold added $9.60, to $1385.10, while silver kicked ahead 18 cents, at $29.37.
Well, if you ask some of the heavies on the Street, they'll all give you the same answer. They're 100% positive that stocks will see further gains in 2011, from a low reading by Citigroup with the S&P 500 at 1300, to a high of 1420 by Barclays Capital, other forecasters see gains of 5-14% in the coming year.
Mark Twain once famously said, “Whenever you find that you are on the side of the majority, it is time to reform.” So, since I don't want to be on the wrong side of this issue and since almost everybody in the world believes stocks will have another upside year in 2011, I'll put forth the prospect that stocks are currently 12-15% overpriced and 2011 will be a year in which we will witness a rather healthy decline of 20% or more on the major indices (and I'm being conservative).
Anecdotal evidence shows that since World War II stocks have traded higher three consecutive years only twice, and the gains were quite small. All other times, the markets showed losses in the third year. There are good reasons for this, many of them having to do with the business cycle and nothing to do with the concept that the US hasn't really made it out of recession and is still struggling, though that could be a good argument on its own.
Dow 11,478.13, -13.78 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,649.56, +6.59 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,247.08, +3.17 (0.25%)
NYSE Compos 7,846.96, +11.65 (0.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,728,535,625
NYSE Volume 3,973,126,250
For the session, advancers narrowly topped decliners, 3313-3227. New highs on the NASDAQ totaled 226, to 28 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 208 new highs and 23 new lows. Volume was absurdly low, though expected, this being less than a week before Christmas.
Oil gained 79 cents, to $88.70. Gold added $9.60, to $1385.10, while silver kicked ahead 18 cents, at $29.37.
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