Spurred by an announcement by Moderna (MRNA) that early trials of a possible COVID-19 vaccine were positive, stocks rode a big Monday rally to better than three percent gains across the major indices. All but the NYSE Composite closed at 11-week highs, the Comp. falling just points short.
The irony of the rally was that Moderna, a company that has never made a single dime of profit (they've lost $1.5 billion since 2016), closed last Friday at 66.68, finished Monday at an even $80 per share, but closed out the week at 69.00. In between, there were some big paydays for insiders. If that wasn't proof enough that the market is a crony capitalist playground, then something's wrong with people's world views.
It was the ultimate slap in the face to the American public by the rich and connected, the one-percenters, who made a show of fake news over something ultimately immaterial. It was a very sad display of fascism in practice.
To make matters even worse, Moderna received up to $483 million in federal funding to accelerate development of its coronavirus vaccine. Governments around the world are throwing money at well-heeled companies working on a vaccine. In the United States, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), a federal agency that funds disease-fighting technology, has announced investments of nearly $1 billion to support coronavirus vaccine development and the scale-up of manufacturing for promising candidates. Johnson and Johnson, Sanofi, and GlaxoSmithKline are among about 100 companies being funded for research toward a coronavirus vaccine by countries from Canada, to Singapore, to France.
The US government committed up to $1.2 billion to fund Oxford University and drug maker, AstraZeneca, in a race to produce a vaccine by October, it was announced on Friday.
The quickest a vaccine has ever been developed is four years from phase one trials to working vaccine on the market. No vaccine for a coronavirus has ever been successfully developed. SARS and MERS are variants of coronaviruses. There are no vaccines to protect against them.
This is just the common folly of the age in which we live. Instead of spending time explaining to people how to strengthen their individual immune systems - the best defense against all diseases and viruses - world governments spend taxpayer dollars funding companies that don't need any extra money. It's an incredible waste of capital, but you can bet the executives of the Big Pharma companies (one of Washington's biggest lobbying groups) and high-ranking scientists are making bank on your dollar.
Meanwhile, back in the real world, the "official" unemployment figure is 14.7%, with more than 36 million Americans out of work. Wall Street continues to party while Main Street gets the shaft, as usual. Lockdowns and social distancing restrictions have blown a hole in small businesses, many of which will never recover and will be bankrupt within months, if not already.
Malls are going broke. The biggest mall in the country, Minnesota's Mall of America, is two months delinquent on it's $1.4 billion loan. Other mall landlords report collecting less than 25% of rent due from April and May. With June approaching quickly, many retailers will be three months behind on rent payments and subject to lockouts, forced liquidations, and other draconian measures written into their leases.
Bankruptcies are mounting and delinquency notices are flying around everywhere. With retail operations - from clothing stores to hair salons to baseball card shops and everything in between - suffering as a result of the nearly nationwide two-month lockdown, many employees who were furloughed will not have jobs to go back to when everything begins to get back to some semblance of normal. That means extended unemployment for millions, poverty and homelessness set to soar.
The federal government's additional $600 a week in unemployment benefits via the CARES act will run out at the end of July, just in time for back-to-school sales that may not happen because some schools won't be reopening and many colleges are planning to allow only limited on-campus activity, with many classes offered via the internet only.
The world has changed, and is changing, though it doesn't appear to be for the better, at least at first blush.
Gold and silver caught bids on the paper markets this week with gold trading as high as $1756.90 per ounce, closing out at $1732.70 bid. Silver was an even better performer, ripping through the $17 per ounce price on Monday, trading as high as $17.57 per ounce before settling in at $17.19 on Friday.
In the physical market, premiums have begun to ease after an incredible supply-demand tug-of-war. Dealers are still facing shortages of certain items, but on eBay, at least, prices were lower for the week, although still well above spot prices.
Here are the most recent prices (Sunday, May 24) for specific items on eBay:
Item / Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin / 22.74 / 38.98 / 30.72 / 29.60
1 oz silver bar / 25.45 / 39.50 / 29.84 / 26.98
1 oz gold coin / 1,855.00 / 1,985.00 / 1,894.48 / 1,894.27
1 oz gold bar / 1,839.93 / 1,987.95 / 1,869.38 / 1,855.52
Oil was up, treasuries were fairly flat for the week. It's a beautiful holiday weekend, so we're calling this a wrap, right here.
Get out and get some sun!
At the Close, Friday, May 22, 2020:
Dow: 24,465.16, -8.94 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 9,324.59, +39.71 (+0.43%)
S&P 500: 2,955.45, +6.94 (+0.24%)
NYSE: 11,331.97, -19.63 (-0.17%)
For the Week:
Dow: +779.74 (+3.29%)
NASDAQ: +310.03 (+3.44%)
S&P 500: +91.75 (+3.20%)
NYSE: +384.65 (+3.51%)
Showing posts with label small business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label small business. Show all posts
Sunday, May 24, 2020
Sunday, April 19, 2020
WEEKEND WRAP: Americans Angered Over Lockdowns, Unfairness; Government Proposes Re-Opening
Was it a coincidence that the president released his guidelines for states to reopen their economies just as civil unrest was percolating across America?
Probably not. Very little happens by chance in the hyper-charged world of politics. The timing was no accident. From the looks of the well-prepared document sent out by the White House, these guidelines had been thought out and processed well in advance. Whether the co-mingled events of Thursday constitute conspiracy or just good planning is a debatable topic.
Whatever the case, most Americans won't be going back to work any time soon. The presidential guidelines call for 14 days of declining trajectory of COVID-19 cases or other criteria. Presently, the numbers are still rising in most states, so expect the level of unrest amongst the working class - what's left of it - to only increase in coming days.
At the same time, the fetid morass that came out of the recently-enacted relief bill is cause for even more dissent. While public corporations received government largesse instantaneously, small businesses suffering from shutdowns cited distressing experiences dealing with banks charged with administering their loans, and that was before the funding dried up and was gone. The so-called Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was availed to a very small percentage of businesses needing assistance, falling well short of anything approaching appeasement. Some lucky individuals began receiving $1200 direct deposits from the feds, and a good number of the 22 million unemployed started getting the extra $600 in weekly unemployment payouts.
Frustration with the rollout of the PPP small business loans was possibly ameliorated by the extra cash afforded unemployed people. There are more than a few people presently reporting a weekly windfall far in excess of what they were making while actually working, so where is the incentive for businesses to keep employees on the books - with the mandate of employers providing up to three months of paid family leave during the crisis - when the government is offering a better deal?
Again, the clashing narratives of extra unemployment compensation and forgivable loans to small business was not happenstance. It is no accident that the federal government gave generously with few strings attached to bail out Wall Street's darlings while confounding and confusing small business and wage earners.
It would take a monumental leap of faith to overlook either the government's gross incompetence or purposeful negligence. From the start, the entire coronavirus affair looks like, smells like, and feels like a deceitful scam, perpetrated to gloss over a multi-trillion dollar scheme to rescue the money center banks and their big corporation, stock-buyback, campaign contributing cohorts.
It worked, and so well that Americans are now clamoring and demanding to get back to their wage-and-tax slavery, otherwise known as a steady job. On Thursday, when the Labor Department reported another 5.5 million new unemployment claims, boosting the number since lockdowns and stay-at=home orders went into effect to over 22 million, stocks managed small gains on the day, but closed out the week on Friday with massive gains.
Over the course of the four weeks in which large numbers of unemployed were reported, stocks gained in three of them, accosting middle and lower class wage earners with an unhealthy kick in the teeth each time for their "sacrifice." The unfair collusion between big business and big government apparently is being tolerated for the time being, though the restlessness of the citizenry has become palpable, the bad taste becoming less palatable with each passing day of isolation and perceived abuse.
A less civil society would have already manned the ramparts and forced the issue. In Michigan, at least, the state house was under assault by thousands of protesters in what may be a sign of things to come. Americans shouldn't stand for such out-and-out double dealing by their government, but it looks like they will, at least until the unemployment money runs out. Or the food runs out. As it stands, they have already taken away Americans' right of assembly (banning large gatherings) to free movement, freedom of choice, and as the crisis commences, governors and bankers will be picking winners and losers, denying re-openings and/or loans to businesses that are deemed "non-essential."
When the Roman Republic transitioned to becoming the Roman Empire the will of the people waned and government fiat became law, with little to no public input or appreciation. Juvenal, a poet of the late first and early second century, decried the dreadful state of affairs in his satires, his most famous phrase coining the term for pacifying the masses, panem et circenses.
Since the government of the United States - and elsewhere around the world - has already mandated an end to the circus aspect of American life by outlawing public gatherings such as sporting events - no baseball, no basketball, hockey, or soccer, and no fans - how soon they take away the bread (food), or price it at unaffordable levels, remains to be seen. The audacity and mendacious aspects of the government response - federal, state, and local - to the coronavirus pandemic puts into play a popular uprising in opposition to government that is increasingly being viewed as unfair, uncaring, and unaccountable.
This viewpoint is not held in isolation. It is shared by many. For perspective, the most recent Keiser Report gives an outstanding testament for the general outrage. It may be Max and Stacy's best effort ever produced (and this is episode 1529). The message is clear, concise, and to the point. Having the brilliant economist, Dr. Michael Hudson, in the second segment is a significant bonus. America, and likely, the rest of the world, is about to enter a new age of unbridled financial repression unless the citizenry rises up to smite the government and rentier class. Max and Stacy hit the nail hard and directly on the head.
Now, to recap the week in what used to be markets, everything is either broken, controlled, or manipulated. Precious metals can no longer be realistically priced by the futures. For decades, they have been manipulated by central banks and the bank for International Settlements (BIS). If there is any doubt, read the extensive body of work done by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). Be forewarned. It is voluminous. Likely the most accurate, true market for gold and silver is on - of all places - eBay, where private parties and dealers buy and sell precious metals in an open, largely unregulated market.
Here are recent (April 18, 19) prices for 1 ounce silver and gold coins on eBay* (quote order is LOW, HIGH, AVERAGE and MEDIAN):
One troy ounce silver coin: 25.50, 61.00, 36.19, 31.89
One troy ounce silver bar: 23.75, 33.00, 27.74, 27.38
One troy ounce gold coin: 1,860.00, 2,004.19, 1,919.82, 1,917.97
One troy ounce gold bar: 1,826.00, 1,905.37, 1,860.95,1,858.34
*Prices were generated using eBay's sold (recently ended) function for the 12 most recent sales of standard (non-numismatic) bars, rounds and coins. Prices included shipping (often free).
Compare the public market price (eBay) to the futures prices and judge for yourself which standard should be used when pricing precious metals. In addition to many dealers being sold out of many popular items, for the past month to six weeks dealers have been imposing minimum order amounts and shipment delays of 15-45 days.
Futures (fake) prices (April 17):
Silver: $15.20/troy ounce
Gold: $1686.50/troy ounce
How about some US Treasury bonds for your portfolio? The benchmark 10-year note yielded between a record low, 0.61%, and 0.76% for the week, closing out on Friday at 0.65% The entire yield curve is 115 basis points end to end, from the 30-day (0.12%) and the 30-year (1.27%). The best that can be said for the treasury yield is that it's better than all other developed national debt, most of which offer negative yields through to 10 year bonds.
Those with faith in government might still want to drop $10,000 on a 10-year note for a whopping return of $76 a year and a grand total of $760 if held to maturity. Others might be hedging that the yield will drop even lower or into negative territory and then sell the bond at a profit. For such a paltry return, neither scenario offers much upside potential.
The one bright spot for the global population is the price of oil and gas. Some states are selling gas at the pump for under $1.00 per gallon as the price of WTI crude closed out last week at $18.12, the lowest in decades. That's overtly deflationary.
At the Close, Friday, April 17, 2020:
Dow: 24,242.49, +704.79 (+2.99%)
NASDAQ: 8,650.14, +117.78 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 2,874.56, +75.01 (+2.68%)
NYSE: 11,208.29, +390.29 (+3.61%)
For the Week:
Dow: +523.12 (+2.21%)
NASDAQ: +496.57 (+6.09%)
S&P 500: +84.74 (+3.04%)
NYSE: +71.69 (+0.64%)
Probably not. Very little happens by chance in the hyper-charged world of politics. The timing was no accident. From the looks of the well-prepared document sent out by the White House, these guidelines had been thought out and processed well in advance. Whether the co-mingled events of Thursday constitute conspiracy or just good planning is a debatable topic.
Whatever the case, most Americans won't be going back to work any time soon. The presidential guidelines call for 14 days of declining trajectory of COVID-19 cases or other criteria. Presently, the numbers are still rising in most states, so expect the level of unrest amongst the working class - what's left of it - to only increase in coming days.
At the same time, the fetid morass that came out of the recently-enacted relief bill is cause for even more dissent. While public corporations received government largesse instantaneously, small businesses suffering from shutdowns cited distressing experiences dealing with banks charged with administering their loans, and that was before the funding dried up and was gone. The so-called Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) was availed to a very small percentage of businesses needing assistance, falling well short of anything approaching appeasement. Some lucky individuals began receiving $1200 direct deposits from the feds, and a good number of the 22 million unemployed started getting the extra $600 in weekly unemployment payouts.
Frustration with the rollout of the PPP small business loans was possibly ameliorated by the extra cash afforded unemployed people. There are more than a few people presently reporting a weekly windfall far in excess of what they were making while actually working, so where is the incentive for businesses to keep employees on the books - with the mandate of employers providing up to three months of paid family leave during the crisis - when the government is offering a better deal?
Again, the clashing narratives of extra unemployment compensation and forgivable loans to small business was not happenstance. It is no accident that the federal government gave generously with few strings attached to bail out Wall Street's darlings while confounding and confusing small business and wage earners.
It would take a monumental leap of faith to overlook either the government's gross incompetence or purposeful negligence. From the start, the entire coronavirus affair looks like, smells like, and feels like a deceitful scam, perpetrated to gloss over a multi-trillion dollar scheme to rescue the money center banks and their big corporation, stock-buyback, campaign contributing cohorts.
It worked, and so well that Americans are now clamoring and demanding to get back to their wage-and-tax slavery, otherwise known as a steady job. On Thursday, when the Labor Department reported another 5.5 million new unemployment claims, boosting the number since lockdowns and stay-at=home orders went into effect to over 22 million, stocks managed small gains on the day, but closed out the week on Friday with massive gains.
Over the course of the four weeks in which large numbers of unemployed were reported, stocks gained in three of them, accosting middle and lower class wage earners with an unhealthy kick in the teeth each time for their "sacrifice." The unfair collusion between big business and big government apparently is being tolerated for the time being, though the restlessness of the citizenry has become palpable, the bad taste becoming less palatable with each passing day of isolation and perceived abuse.
A less civil society would have already manned the ramparts and forced the issue. In Michigan, at least, the state house was under assault by thousands of protesters in what may be a sign of things to come. Americans shouldn't stand for such out-and-out double dealing by their government, but it looks like they will, at least until the unemployment money runs out. Or the food runs out. As it stands, they have already taken away Americans' right of assembly (banning large gatherings) to free movement, freedom of choice, and as the crisis commences, governors and bankers will be picking winners and losers, denying re-openings and/or loans to businesses that are deemed "non-essential."
When the Roman Republic transitioned to becoming the Roman Empire the will of the people waned and government fiat became law, with little to no public input or appreciation. Juvenal, a poet of the late first and early second century, decried the dreadful state of affairs in his satires, his most famous phrase coining the term for pacifying the masses, panem et circenses.
... Already long ago, from when we sold our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions — everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread and circuses.
-- Juvenal
Since the government of the United States - and elsewhere around the world - has already mandated an end to the circus aspect of American life by outlawing public gatherings such as sporting events - no baseball, no basketball, hockey, or soccer, and no fans - how soon they take away the bread (food), or price it at unaffordable levels, remains to be seen. The audacity and mendacious aspects of the government response - federal, state, and local - to the coronavirus pandemic puts into play a popular uprising in opposition to government that is increasingly being viewed as unfair, uncaring, and unaccountable.
This viewpoint is not held in isolation. It is shared by many. For perspective, the most recent Keiser Report gives an outstanding testament for the general outrage. It may be Max and Stacy's best effort ever produced (and this is episode 1529). The message is clear, concise, and to the point. Having the brilliant economist, Dr. Michael Hudson, in the second segment is a significant bonus. America, and likely, the rest of the world, is about to enter a new age of unbridled financial repression unless the citizenry rises up to smite the government and rentier class. Max and Stacy hit the nail hard and directly on the head.
Now, to recap the week in what used to be markets, everything is either broken, controlled, or manipulated. Precious metals can no longer be realistically priced by the futures. For decades, they have been manipulated by central banks and the bank for International Settlements (BIS). If there is any doubt, read the extensive body of work done by the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). Be forewarned. It is voluminous. Likely the most accurate, true market for gold and silver is on - of all places - eBay, where private parties and dealers buy and sell precious metals in an open, largely unregulated market.
Here are recent (April 18, 19) prices for 1 ounce silver and gold coins on eBay* (quote order is LOW, HIGH, AVERAGE and MEDIAN):
One troy ounce silver coin: 25.50, 61.00, 36.19, 31.89
One troy ounce silver bar: 23.75, 33.00, 27.74, 27.38
One troy ounce gold coin: 1,860.00, 2,004.19, 1,919.82, 1,917.97
One troy ounce gold bar: 1,826.00, 1,905.37, 1,860.95,1,858.34
*Prices were generated using eBay's sold (recently ended) function for the 12 most recent sales of standard (non-numismatic) bars, rounds and coins. Prices included shipping (often free).
Compare the public market price (eBay) to the futures prices and judge for yourself which standard should be used when pricing precious metals. In addition to many dealers being sold out of many popular items, for the past month to six weeks dealers have been imposing minimum order amounts and shipment delays of 15-45 days.
Futures (fake) prices (April 17):
Silver: $15.20/troy ounce
Gold: $1686.50/troy ounce
How about some US Treasury bonds for your portfolio? The benchmark 10-year note yielded between a record low, 0.61%, and 0.76% for the week, closing out on Friday at 0.65% The entire yield curve is 115 basis points end to end, from the 30-day (0.12%) and the 30-year (1.27%). The best that can be said for the treasury yield is that it's better than all other developed national debt, most of which offer negative yields through to 10 year bonds.
Those with faith in government might still want to drop $10,000 on a 10-year note for a whopping return of $76 a year and a grand total of $760 if held to maturity. Others might be hedging that the yield will drop even lower or into negative territory and then sell the bond at a profit. For such a paltry return, neither scenario offers much upside potential.
The one bright spot for the global population is the price of oil and gas. Some states are selling gas at the pump for under $1.00 per gallon as the price of WTI crude closed out last week at $18.12, the lowest in decades. That's overtly deflationary.
At the Close, Friday, April 17, 2020:
Dow: 24,242.49, +704.79 (+2.99%)
NASDAQ: 8,650.14, +117.78 (+1.38%)
S&P 500: 2,874.56, +75.01 (+2.68%)
NYSE: 11,208.29, +390.29 (+3.61%)
For the Week:
Dow: +523.12 (+2.21%)
NASDAQ: +496.57 (+6.09%)
S&P 500: +84.74 (+3.04%)
NYSE: +71.69 (+0.64%)
Sunday, December 30, 2018
WEEKEND WRAP: With Continued Volatility In Stocks, Is It Time To Consider Alternative Investment Asset Classes?
To say the least, this was one wild week.
Monday opened with word that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had phoned six major banks and the Plunge Protection Team to assure that the banks had adequate liquidity to survive a significant downturn. There were two problem with Mnuchin making these calls and then making them public. First, nobody was thinking about bank liquidity. Second, alerting the PPT suggests that there are significant economic issues facing the market.
Mnuchin initiated a panic, good for -653 points on the Dow, on a day in which markets closed at 1:00 pm. That was Christmas Eve.
The day after Christmas, Wednesday, the Dow set a record for points gained in one session. It was a spectacular day for anybody in the bullish camp. All the other indices were up more than four percent, another first.
On Thursday, stocks were slumping badly again, but then, the rally from nowhere produced a positive finish, boosting the Dow more than 600 points from 2:15 pm into the close, for a net gain on the day of 260 points.
On Friday, the opposite occurred. The Dow Industrials were up 240 points at three o'clock, but closed down 76.
Volatility. It's what's for Christmas, it appears.
When it was all over the week turned out to be a winner, the first in four weeks of December. Since the start of October, there have been nine weekly losses on the Dow, with just five weekly gains. The net result of this wicked roller-coaster of a market is a Dow Jones Industrial Average that's down nearly 2500 points in December and 3766 points from October 3.
While the week's heavy lifting (most likely done by our friends at the PPT) kept the Dow out of bear market territory, it - and the other major indices - are still deep in the correction zone, and all indices are down for the year. Since there's only one trading day left in 2018, this year is a good bet to end up a loser, despite the best efforts of the pumpers, panderers, shills, and jokers in the financial field to separate you from your money with promises of outstanding gains.
Every stock pumper in the world mouths the word "diversification" as a key element leading to positive investment results. The problem with their kind of diversification is that it normally references one, maybe two asset classes: stocks, and then, maybe, bonds.
Such short-sighted thinking obscures all the other asset classes, broadly, real estate, commodities, currencies, art, collectibles, precious metals and gemstones, vehicles, business equipment, private equity, cash, cash equivalents, and human capital.
There are plenty of opportunities in small business development, where ownership can be hands-on or hands-free, with the potential to grow a local business within a community. President Donald Trump (and many other private businessmen) is one good example of how much money can be made in real estate investment and privately-owned businesses.
People who held on to their Spiderman, X-Men, and Fantastic Four comic books are smiling broadly. So too, those who kept baseball and football cards for more than 50 years. The value of a Mickey Mantle rookie card today is astronomical compared to its original cost (less than a penny).
With the recent volatility in stocks, people may be considering diversifying out of stocks and into other asset classes. In the coming year and beyond, presentation of alternative money-making and investment opportunities will be a focus of Money Daily.
Here's to looking forward at a year of diversifying out of strictly stocks in a portfolio.
In advance: Happy New Year!
Dow Jones Industrial Average December Scorecard:
At the Close, Friday, December 28, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,062.40, -76.42 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,584.52, +5.03 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,485.74, -3.09 (-0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 11,290.95, +5.64 (+0.05%)
For the Week:
Dow: +617.03 (+2.75%)
NASDAQ: +251.53 (+3.97%)
S&P 500: +69.12 (+2.86%)
NYSE Composite: +254.11 (+2.30%)
Monday opened with word that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had phoned six major banks and the Plunge Protection Team to assure that the banks had adequate liquidity to survive a significant downturn. There were two problem with Mnuchin making these calls and then making them public. First, nobody was thinking about bank liquidity. Second, alerting the PPT suggests that there are significant economic issues facing the market.
Mnuchin initiated a panic, good for -653 points on the Dow, on a day in which markets closed at 1:00 pm. That was Christmas Eve.
The day after Christmas, Wednesday, the Dow set a record for points gained in one session. It was a spectacular day for anybody in the bullish camp. All the other indices were up more than four percent, another first.
On Thursday, stocks were slumping badly again, but then, the rally from nowhere produced a positive finish, boosting the Dow more than 600 points from 2:15 pm into the close, for a net gain on the day of 260 points.
On Friday, the opposite occurred. The Dow Industrials were up 240 points at three o'clock, but closed down 76.
Volatility. It's what's for Christmas, it appears.
When it was all over the week turned out to be a winner, the first in four weeks of December. Since the start of October, there have been nine weekly losses on the Dow, with just five weekly gains. The net result of this wicked roller-coaster of a market is a Dow Jones Industrial Average that's down nearly 2500 points in December and 3766 points from October 3.
While the week's heavy lifting (most likely done by our friends at the PPT) kept the Dow out of bear market territory, it - and the other major indices - are still deep in the correction zone, and all indices are down for the year. Since there's only one trading day left in 2018, this year is a good bet to end up a loser, despite the best efforts of the pumpers, panderers, shills, and jokers in the financial field to separate you from your money with promises of outstanding gains.
Every stock pumper in the world mouths the word "diversification" as a key element leading to positive investment results. The problem with their kind of diversification is that it normally references one, maybe two asset classes: stocks, and then, maybe, bonds.
Such short-sighted thinking obscures all the other asset classes, broadly, real estate, commodities, currencies, art, collectibles, precious metals and gemstones, vehicles, business equipment, private equity, cash, cash equivalents, and human capital.
There are plenty of opportunities in small business development, where ownership can be hands-on or hands-free, with the potential to grow a local business within a community. President Donald Trump (and many other private businessmen) is one good example of how much money can be made in real estate investment and privately-owned businesses.
People who held on to their Spiderman, X-Men, and Fantastic Four comic books are smiling broadly. So too, those who kept baseball and football cards for more than 50 years. The value of a Mickey Mantle rookie card today is astronomical compared to its original cost (less than a penny).
With the recent volatility in stocks, people may be considering diversifying out of stocks and into other asset classes. In the coming year and beyond, presentation of alternative money-making and investment opportunities will be a focus of Money Daily.
Here's to looking forward at a year of diversifying out of strictly stocks in a portfolio.
In advance: Happy New Year!
Dow Jones Industrial Average December Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 12/3/18 | 25,826.43 | +287.97 | +287.97 |
| 12/4/18 | 25,027.07 | -799.36 | -511.39 |
| 12/6/18 | 24,947.67 | -79.40 | -590.79 |
| 12/7/18 | 24,388.95 | -558.72 | -1149.51 |
| 12/10/18 | 24,423.26 | +34.31 | -1115.20 |
| 12/11/18 | 24,370.24 | -53.02 | -1168.22 |
| 12/12/18 | 24,527.27 | +157.03 | -1011.19 |
| 12/13/18 | 24,597.38 | +70.11 | -941.08 |
| 12/14/18 | 24,100.51 | -496.87 | -1437.95 |
| 12/17/18 | 23,592.98 | -507.53 | -1945.58 |
| 12/18/18 | 23,675.64 | +82.66 | -1862.92 |
| 12/19/18 | 23,323.66 | -351.98 | -2214.90 |
| 12/20/18 | 22,859.60 | -464.06 | -2678.96 |
| 12/21/18 | 22,445.37 | -414.23 | -3093.19 |
| 12/24/18 | 21,792.20 | -653.17 | -3746.36 |
| 12/26/18 | 22,878.45 | +1086.25 | -2660.11 |
| 12/27/18 | 23,138.82 | +260.37 | -2399.74 |
| 12/28/18 | 23,062.40 | -76.42 | -2476.16 |
At the Close, Friday, December 28, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 23,062.40, -76.42 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ: 6,584.52, +5.03 (+0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,485.74, -3.09 (-0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 11,290.95, +5.64 (+0.05%)
For the Week:
Dow: +617.03 (+2.75%)
NASDAQ: +251.53 (+3.97%)
S&P 500: +69.12 (+2.86%)
NYSE Composite: +254.11 (+2.30%)
Monday, April 22, 2013
Relative Price Inflation; Getting Off the Investment Grid; Permanent Backwardation in Gold
Since today's trading was nothing but another typical "buy the dip" on low volume type of affair, after Caterpillar (CAT) posted truly ugly first quarter results and existing home sales were likewise horrible, today's post contains some random thought and ideas about the state of the economy and a link to an article by Professor Antal Fekete, one of the few honest economists in the world.
I'll take IBM for 200, Alex... er, make that 175.
I've always been skeptical of yields on dividend stocks, because, in a market-clearing event like 2001 or 2008, these stocks all lose on a per share basis. Yes, your yield rises, but at the expense of share price. At best, you break even; at worst, you lose and the dividend gets cut, a la 2008.
I don't believe the RE market is actually improving. Where I live (upstate NY), RE prices were not greatly affected by the bubble bursting, but now they're headed south, with lots of Fannie Mae foreclosures showing up after the courts were clogged with them for years (still are).
Cash, silver, land still appear as safe havens, though the recent decline in paper silver has had the opposite effect on physical. Current premiums are now ranging from 25-35%, making the actual price for physical silver closer to $30 per ounce then the post $22 and change.
Land is still a little pricey, especially if it's good farm land, but I'll still take wooded acres because you can cut and use the wood for all kinds of useful things, like buildings, fences, and heat (burns good), and once cleared, viola, farm land. I'm thinking more in terms of small organic garden plots rather than macro-farming, enough to feed a few families. Doesn't take much. The average back yard will feed three-to four families of four.
Cash is your best defense despite the scourge of inflation. If deflation occurs, cash is king, and with a huge crown. That's when you can buy assets on the cheap, which is investing 101 - buy low, sell high - ya know.
I'm still a deflationista, because I look around a lot. You can buy tomatoes at $2.49 a pound at the popular Wegmans' grocery stores, or hit the same thing for $1.59 at Price Rite or even Wally World. Don't get me started on limes, a must for my favorite Bloody Mary, at 3 for $2 at Wegmans, but 4 for a buck at Price Rite.
The Price Rite's and Aldi's are in poor 'hoods, so the sucker middle class gets raped at the "safe" stores. The dimwits in the inner cities, though, are buying mostly Cheetos and crap rather than good food with the SNAP cards, so, they'd just die off, albeit at lower prices.
My point is, get off the investment grid. Buy local (farmers markets are awesome), horde cash, and, when and if the silver mania subsides, more shiney.
A True Small Business Success Story
Professor Fekete on permanent gold backwardation:
Dow 14,567.17, +19.66 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,233.55, +27.49 (0.86%)
S&P 500 1,562.50, +7.25 (0.47%)
NYSE Composite 9,019.90, +25.78 (0.29%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,626,128,625
NYSE Volume 3,288,661,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3644-2759
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 225-85
WTI crude oil: 88.76, +0.75
Gold: 1,421.20, +25.60
Silver: 23.32, +0.364
I'll take IBM for 200, Alex... er, make that 175.
I've always been skeptical of yields on dividend stocks, because, in a market-clearing event like 2001 or 2008, these stocks all lose on a per share basis. Yes, your yield rises, but at the expense of share price. At best, you break even; at worst, you lose and the dividend gets cut, a la 2008.
I don't believe the RE market is actually improving. Where I live (upstate NY), RE prices were not greatly affected by the bubble bursting, but now they're headed south, with lots of Fannie Mae foreclosures showing up after the courts were clogged with them for years (still are).
Cash, silver, land still appear as safe havens, though the recent decline in paper silver has had the opposite effect on physical. Current premiums are now ranging from 25-35%, making the actual price for physical silver closer to $30 per ounce then the post $22 and change.
Land is still a little pricey, especially if it's good farm land, but I'll still take wooded acres because you can cut and use the wood for all kinds of useful things, like buildings, fences, and heat (burns good), and once cleared, viola, farm land. I'm thinking more in terms of small organic garden plots rather than macro-farming, enough to feed a few families. Doesn't take much. The average back yard will feed three-to four families of four.
Cash is your best defense despite the scourge of inflation. If deflation occurs, cash is king, and with a huge crown. That's when you can buy assets on the cheap, which is investing 101 - buy low, sell high - ya know.
I'm still a deflationista, because I look around a lot. You can buy tomatoes at $2.49 a pound at the popular Wegmans' grocery stores, or hit the same thing for $1.59 at Price Rite or even Wally World. Don't get me started on limes, a must for my favorite Bloody Mary, at 3 for $2 at Wegmans, but 4 for a buck at Price Rite.
The Price Rite's and Aldi's are in poor 'hoods, so the sucker middle class gets raped at the "safe" stores. The dimwits in the inner cities, though, are buying mostly Cheetos and crap rather than good food with the SNAP cards, so, they'd just die off, albeit at lower prices.
My point is, get off the investment grid. Buy local (farmers markets are awesome), horde cash, and, when and if the silver mania subsides, more shiney.
A True Small Business Success Story
Start a business. Anything. Get paid in cash, if possible. Don't become another debt slave with a shitty job.
Here's my 100% true story: I think it was about 1992. I was broke, living with my brother and he wanted rent. I had $12 in pennies, my car, a little gas and a computer and printer. I took those pennies, rolled them up, took them to the bank, got $12, bought $12 worth of stuff at the dollar store - mostly cleaning supplies - printed up some cards that said "Happy House" and took my goods door-to-door in my neighborhood (in the city, a little distance from the dollar store). I sold what I had in about an hour, went back to the dollar store twice that day to re-supply and again hit the streets.
In one day - ONE DAY! - I had $45, more merchandise and people calling me with orders and questions. My biggest seller were sponges. I was able to get a big bag of them for $1, broke them up and sold them for $50 each. People would buy six or eight at a time. Also, Old Dutch Cleanser (like Comet), which I got 2 for a buck and turned around at $1 each.
In a week, I netted over $400, and then got a huge order from a guy who ran a cleaning business for about $250. I did all this in three residential blocks, barely tapping the market.
I did this for about a month, paid all my bills and took a job with a friend as a painter, which paid extremely well, and still kept getting orders over the phone. I didn't pursue the business further, but, looking back, figure I could have made serious money had I kept at it.
So, my advice, find a service which you can handle, print up some cards or use the internet. There are opportunities everywhere for self-starters. Avoid self-pity and self-defeating attitudes and people who are negative. You have worth and if you allow yourself to overcome your fear of failure, you will succeed.
(Just a side note: When I started my "Happy House" business, I was worried that people would see that I was just buying stuff at the dollar store and turning it over. Never happened. Years later, I realized that I was providing a service: bringing those cheap goods to their doors, and that was the "value added" aspect. Add value to an existing product or service and you can't miss. I know a guy who goes to the farmer's market every morning, brings home vegetables and sells them from his front yard. His day is done by 1:00 in the afternoon, and he plays a lot of golf in good weather. There are success stories everywhere - many on ebay - of people pulling themselves out of bad situations. You are no different.)
Professor Fekete on permanent gold backwardation:
Dow 14,567.17, +19.66 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 3,233.55, +27.49 (0.86%)
S&P 500 1,562.50, +7.25 (0.47%)
NYSE Composite 9,019.90, +25.78 (0.29%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,626,128,625
NYSE Volume 3,288,661,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3644-2759
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 225-85
WTI crude oil: 88.76, +0.75
Gold: 1,421.20, +25.60
Silver: 23.32, +0.364
Monday, October 17, 2011
Payment Processing for Small Business
In order to keep one's business functioning smoothly, with so many different ways consumers spend and receive money, a variety of payment processing services and products are key to prospering in a rapidly-changing environment.
The primary ways people pay are cash and credit/debit cards, so a if a business has retail space it must also have robust POS systems capable of handing all manner of transactions smoothly and seamlessly, and, hopefully, all though one provider. Choice and flexibility are what consumers seek in their payment options.
That means merchants should rely on not many, but one single company to handle all credit/debit card transactions - online, by phone or in-house - with credit card processing services that won't confuse your customers or employees and can provide detailed, instantaneous processing and also offer the merchant an interface for reviewing and downloading transaction report data.
Along with credit-debit card POS systems and processing services, any business handling cash might want to investigate the availability of having ATM machines at retail locations, again providing the customer with choice, while at the same time helping to increase add-on sales. The ability to access additional cash while still inside the merchant location spurs impulse buying and helps bring in extra foot traffic with potential cash in hand.
Today's business challenges are various and complex, but there's no need for business owners or managers to make their lives more difficult by choosing more than one provider for payment services and products. While it's anathema to business to have only one main customer, when it comes to payment processes, having one source for everything from credit to cash to analytics is not only desirable, but ultimately, profitable.
The primary ways people pay are cash and credit/debit cards, so a if a business has retail space it must also have robust POS systems capable of handing all manner of transactions smoothly and seamlessly, and, hopefully, all though one provider. Choice and flexibility are what consumers seek in their payment options.
That means merchants should rely on not many, but one single company to handle all credit/debit card transactions - online, by phone or in-house - with credit card processing services that won't confuse your customers or employees and can provide detailed, instantaneous processing and also offer the merchant an interface for reviewing and downloading transaction report data.
Along with credit-debit card POS systems and processing services, any business handling cash might want to investigate the availability of having ATM machines at retail locations, again providing the customer with choice, while at the same time helping to increase add-on sales. The ability to access additional cash while still inside the merchant location spurs impulse buying and helps bring in extra foot traffic with potential cash in hand.
Today's business challenges are various and complex, but there's no need for business owners or managers to make their lives more difficult by choosing more than one provider for payment services and products. While it's anathema to business to have only one main customer, when it comes to payment processes, having one source for everything from credit to cash to analytics is not only desirable, but ultimately, profitable.
Monday, December 27, 2010
Slogging Along Toward a 2011 Disaster
Just for kicks, here's the opening line to this post without benefit of having seen as much as a stock quote all day:
Stocks flat on low volume.
Let's see how we stack up:
Dow 11,555.03, -18.46 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,667.27, +1.67 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,257.54, +0.77 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 7,920.94, -4.42 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,067,840,625
NYSE Volume 2,203,177,750
Well, prescient, no?
Amazingly, advancing issues swamped decliners, 3637-2817. On the NASDAQ, there were 147 new highs; 13 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 106 new highs, to just 13 new lows. Trading was exceedingly thin, the lowest volume of the year, due to a fierce snowstorm which kept many traders from reaching the floor of the NYSE and the time of year, which always has a negative effect on volume.
Crude oil dipped to $91.00, down 51 cents on the day. Gold bounced around, finally going down 20 cents, to $1384.20 as of this writing. Silver is currently up 7 cents, to $29.29.
There's really no good reason to bother with these thinly-traded equity markets. For much less risk one should be investing in precious metals or one's own business, where the rate of return should easily outperform stocks and/or bonds in good times and especially in bad ones. If one is a good business manager, there is boundless opportunity. Just spare the overhead, keep employees (if you even dare to hire one) to a minimum, work diligently and watch the bottom line.
Any business, unless one is in the wrong line of work or a completely illiquid market, should thrive without much interference from government. That seems to be the major trick - keeping the regulatory agencies and taxing authorities off your doorstep.
America was built on entrepreneurship, vision and perseverance, the last of which is probably the most important. Most businesses fail from lack of persistence in the face of what usually appears as various impediments to survival. In these sad days of the new century, Americans are beginning to suffer from lacks of education, nerve and business acumen. There may be no better time to bootstrap an organization from the ground up, as the politicians are too busy trying to save their jobs and the banking conglomerate is desperate.
With a little pluck and not much capital, Americans may find unique ways to free themselves from wage slavery, the scourge of the nation. All it takes is an idea, some grit, some spit and some attitude. Every household in America should double as home base for a business. It doesn't matter if the business thrives or loses money in the beginning, because the enormous tax benefits of hoe-based businesses will free up more of YOUR money, which the government takes up front in the form of payroll taxes.
Those still treading on the payroll train to nowhere would do well to file a DBA (Doing Business As) with their local county clerk and begin receiving the vast benefits proffered by the US tax code. There are no more home-business-friendly rules in the world.
Just as a hint - and I'm not going to give anyone the entire scope of why having a home-based business is a MUST in these times - start with the deduction from income on the costs of one room (the room which you dedicate to your business). If you live in a two-bedroom apartment with a kitchen, a bath, living and dining room, paying $500/month, making one of those two bedrooms an office - even if you make ZERO net income from your business - allows you to deduct 1/5 of your rent, or $1200 per year, from your gross income. Just this alone, if you're in a 28% tax bracket, will save you $336 in taxes, and that's just for starters.
Imagine if you actually made money from your business. Someday, you might find yourself not worrying about taxes at all, except to shield them from the government like big businesses do, and there are ways.
Wake up and grow up, Americans. The resources are there, the money is out there, what's lacking is the will.
Stocks flat on low volume.
Let's see how we stack up:
Dow 11,555.03, -18.46 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,667.27, +1.67 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,257.54, +0.77 (0.06%)
NYSE Composite 7,920.94, -4.42 (0.06%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,067,840,625
NYSE Volume 2,203,177,750
Well, prescient, no?
Amazingly, advancing issues swamped decliners, 3637-2817. On the NASDAQ, there were 147 new highs; 13 new lows. On the NYSE, there were 106 new highs, to just 13 new lows. Trading was exceedingly thin, the lowest volume of the year, due to a fierce snowstorm which kept many traders from reaching the floor of the NYSE and the time of year, which always has a negative effect on volume.
Crude oil dipped to $91.00, down 51 cents on the day. Gold bounced around, finally going down 20 cents, to $1384.20 as of this writing. Silver is currently up 7 cents, to $29.29.
There's really no good reason to bother with these thinly-traded equity markets. For much less risk one should be investing in precious metals or one's own business, where the rate of return should easily outperform stocks and/or bonds in good times and especially in bad ones. If one is a good business manager, there is boundless opportunity. Just spare the overhead, keep employees (if you even dare to hire one) to a minimum, work diligently and watch the bottom line.
Any business, unless one is in the wrong line of work or a completely illiquid market, should thrive without much interference from government. That seems to be the major trick - keeping the regulatory agencies and taxing authorities off your doorstep.
America was built on entrepreneurship, vision and perseverance, the last of which is probably the most important. Most businesses fail from lack of persistence in the face of what usually appears as various impediments to survival. In these sad days of the new century, Americans are beginning to suffer from lacks of education, nerve and business acumen. There may be no better time to bootstrap an organization from the ground up, as the politicians are too busy trying to save their jobs and the banking conglomerate is desperate.
With a little pluck and not much capital, Americans may find unique ways to free themselves from wage slavery, the scourge of the nation. All it takes is an idea, some grit, some spit and some attitude. Every household in America should double as home base for a business. It doesn't matter if the business thrives or loses money in the beginning, because the enormous tax benefits of hoe-based businesses will free up more of YOUR money, which the government takes up front in the form of payroll taxes.
Those still treading on the payroll train to nowhere would do well to file a DBA (Doing Business As) with their local county clerk and begin receiving the vast benefits proffered by the US tax code. There are no more home-business-friendly rules in the world.
Just as a hint - and I'm not going to give anyone the entire scope of why having a home-based business is a MUST in these times - start with the deduction from income on the costs of one room (the room which you dedicate to your business). If you live in a two-bedroom apartment with a kitchen, a bath, living and dining room, paying $500/month, making one of those two bedrooms an office - even if you make ZERO net income from your business - allows you to deduct 1/5 of your rent, or $1200 per year, from your gross income. Just this alone, if you're in a 28% tax bracket, will save you $336 in taxes, and that's just for starters.
Imagine if you actually made money from your business. Someday, you might find yourself not worrying about taxes at all, except to shield them from the government like big businesses do, and there are ways.
Wake up and grow up, Americans. The resources are there, the money is out there, what's lacking is the will.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Some Relief for Small Business
After the near-collapse of the entire global banking system last fall (yes, it really was that close to the edge), many changes have occurred in the realm of finance, especially in the area of small business lines of credit. It's now tougher than ever for small businesses to get start-up loans, much less maintain adequate lines of credit with which to operate going concerns.
The big banks don't want to know about risky loans, since they almost went belly-up themselves just months ago because they took on more risk than they should have. Now, Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are still standing thanks to taxpayer-funded bailouts, but there are thousands of small businesses littered across the vast tapestry of the American financial landscape that are close to the edge or already insolvent due to the carnage from the economic tsunami.
Now that CIT, one of the large "factoring" lenders has fallen into bankruptcy, there is a need for more emergency loan lenders to handle the ongoing needs of American small business.
Many small business-people are looking forward to passage of the Business Emergency Loan Relief Act, recently introduced in the Senate by Ohio's Sherrod Brown, which would temporarily raise the SBA 7(a) loan size from $2 million to $5 million, the 504 loan size from $1.5 million to $4 million, and the ARC loan size from $35,000 to $50,000. The bill also temporarily allows customers to use the 504 loan guarantees to refinance existing business debt, which would help small businesses address cash flow issues.
The bill was introduced by the Ohio Senator in an effort to ease some of the financial pain currently plaguing American small business.
The big banks don't want to know about risky loans, since they almost went belly-up themselves just months ago because they took on more risk than they should have. Now, Citibank, JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are still standing thanks to taxpayer-funded bailouts, but there are thousands of small businesses littered across the vast tapestry of the American financial landscape that are close to the edge or already insolvent due to the carnage from the economic tsunami.
Now that CIT, one of the large "factoring" lenders has fallen into bankruptcy, there is a need for more emergency loan lenders to handle the ongoing needs of American small business.
Many small business-people are looking forward to passage of the Business Emergency Loan Relief Act, recently introduced in the Senate by Ohio's Sherrod Brown, which would temporarily raise the SBA 7(a) loan size from $2 million to $5 million, the 504 loan size from $1.5 million to $4 million, and the ARC loan size from $35,000 to $50,000. The bill also temporarily allows customers to use the 504 loan guarantees to refinance existing business debt, which would help small businesses address cash flow issues.
The bill was introduced by the Ohio Senator in an effort to ease some of the financial pain currently plaguing American small business.
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