Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Last Gasp or Last Hurrah?

As another day-long rally appeared out of the blue for the second consecutive day on virtually no news, one must question the tendency of the market to gain so vigorously without the benefit of positive reinforcement.

With stocks being nearly the only place to find yield these days, there has to be adequate risk appetite, and that's where the low volume standard comes into play. On these monstrous upside days, the volume has remained quiet, signaling to the astute investor that such rallies are nothing more than algorithm-inspired events and have little to nothing to do with news flow, fundamentals or general sentiment.

As such, there's little to report on today's ramp-job than to mention that the Greek parliament will vote on the austerity plan by which they will get the next portion of their bailout money on Wednesday morning, 5:00 am EDT, so as goes the vote, so will stocks. A failure for the parliament to pass the measure would result - mostly likely - in a massive default by the Greek government or some other form of restructuring, because, as we all know, bankers cannot lose money, even if they lend to the worst, non-performing, severe-credit-risk entities, like sovereign nations such as Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

If the vote passes, the people will riot and burn most of Athens back to it's root of civilization foundations. Thus, nobody wins, except the banks, though it could be a hollow, short-lived victory as not only Greece, but other EU nations, have debt well beyond their ability to repay, no matter how much they tax the populace.

We have reached a tipping point in the global economy and the sooner politicians and bankers realize that their Ponzi scheme has hit a wall, the quicker the world can get back on track to some normalized kind of functioning reality. Until then, though, it's risk on, rally on!

Dow 12,188.61, +145.05 (1.20%)
NASDAQ 2,729.31, +41.03 (1.53%)
S&P 500 1,296.67, +16.57 (1.29%)
NYSE Composite 8,135.98, +104.90 (1.31%)


Advancers finished well ahead of declining issues, 5045-1528. NASDAQ new highs: 100, new lows: 22. On the NYSE, 75 new highs, 23 new lows, bringing the combined total to 175 new highs and 45 new lows on the day. As decisive as those results may be, skepticism abounds due to the aforementioned thoughts and the incredibly low volume.

NASDAQ Volume 1,660,870,000.00
NYSE Volume 3,650,911,750


Oil rose $2.28, to $92.89, defying all manner of logic. Someday soon, hopefully the assholes (that's what they are and that's what I'm calling them) trading oil futures are going to be hit with a bolt of lightning and the realization that absurdly high oil prices are a detriment to global growth. It could not happen soon enough.

Gold was up 4.10, to $1501.00, while silver rose 36 cents, to $33.94, both breaking a three-day losing streak.

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The old fashioned paper budget and ledger has gone the way of the pocket calculator and slide rule. More and more people are turning to tools on the web to track and quantify their cash and investments.

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Mint is a great free solution designed to assist everyone in managing their finances.

Monday, June 27, 2011

No News, So Stocks Must Go Higher

The saying, "no news is good news" accurately described the tenor of trade today on Wall Street.

Without any catalyzing headlines to spook the market - as has been the case so often in the past two months or so - investors (or rather, the algorithms that make the trades) bought stocks like they were the next best thing to sliced bread.

Amazingly, among the leading sectors was financials, which have been battered for the better part of the last six months. Others doing better than the financials included conglomerates, technology and energy.

But the real telling number came from the dollar index, as the Euro rallied on hopes that the Greek parliament would vote in favor of accepting the austerity plan from the IMF and keep the depreciating Euros flowing into the system. On that, the dollar was considerably weaker, which no doubt helped stocks. The dollar index was down 0.24 to 75.34, a level at which it could stabilize, just below 76, which it cannot break out above from, and just off the nominal lows at 71-72.

If the Fed wants a weak dollar, but not any weaker, that's likely what they're going to get, for now, though how that translates into a triple-digit move on the Dow is known only to those insde the minds of the machines.

Today's move is still rather curious, considering that Greece will vote on the austerity measures in less than two days and the margin of passage is down to about one vote, as four members of Papandreou's 155-seat majority have already expressed a reluctance to vote in favor of the measure. The Greek parliament has 300 members, so the situation is dicey, especially with nationwide strikes planeed for Tuesday and Wednesday.

But, since nothing happened today to unravel the fiat currency regime a bit further, stocks finished widely positive, though well off their intraday highs.

Dow 12,043.56, +108.98 (0.91%)
NASDAQ 2,688.28, +35.39 (1.33%)
S&P 500 1,280.10, +11.65 (0.92%)
NYSE Composite 8,031.08, +56.36 (0.71%)


As expected, advancers clobbered decliners, 4366-2198. On the NASDAQ, 64 new highs, but a startling 51 new lows, a bit odd for such a healthy positive day. The NYSE saw a similar circumstance, with 52 new highs, but 39 new lows. The combined figure, therefore comes to 116 new highs and 90 new lows, close to flat. Volume was back to its usual pedestrian levels, another indication that the rally has short legs, if any at all.

NASDAQ Volume 1,693,123,125.00
NYSE Volume 3,583,716,000


Oil fell again, briefly trading below $90/barrel, before rallying back to close at $90.61, down 55 cents on the day. Gold was battered down for a third consecutive session, losing $6.10, to $1496.20. Silver is apparently being made a whipping boy once again by the likes of JP Morgan, dropping 81 cents, to $33.51. That's the lowest close for silver since May 12, when the London daily fix was $32.50 the ounce.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Another Tough Week for Stocks, Gold, Silver

Even though the prior week was the first winner in seven weeks for the Dow, persistent problems with the basic functioning of the global economic system pushed stocks to another down week as Thursday and Friday wiped out gains from the previous three days.

For the record, the Dow has closed lower in seven of the last eight weeks, this week ending 70 points lower than where it ended last Friday.

To the untrained eye, this is nothing more than a pull-back from some lofty highs set in early May that have been taken out by sell-side speculators. To anyone even remotely astute on economic matters, these past eight weeks have reeked of desperation from political bodies, central banks and equity pushers who know, deep in their heart of hearts, that the reign of fiat money - based on nothing but debt, promises and more debt - is nearing an end and a return to some kind of rational standard (like gold or silver or both) is the only alternative.

The overt proponents of the fiat system such as the IMF, World Bank and central banks in countries around the world simply continue doling out bailouts, first to banks, now to sovereign nations, such as Greece and Ireland in recent months.

As amusing as it may sound, these bailouts do nothing but more harm on the populations of the nations in question, but the most egregious abuses of money come from the global leader, the United States of America, which has broken all rules in attempting to paper over the abject defaults of the nations' largest banks, which collapsed in the fall of 2008.

After spending tens of trillions of dollars bailing out not only US financial institutions, but also those of other countries, the Federal Reserve has become the worst-managed, most indolent bank on the planet. They've directed funds from all manner of mysterious sources to overseas banks and nations, and have done so without the benefit of any oversight or audit. Eventually, they will come to ruin, and with it, the entire planet will suffer though one of the worst and longest depressions in history, possibly the worst ever.

It's gotten well past the point of thinking that politicians or Fed officials actually have any kind of solution; they just keep trying the same tired polices in hope that some confidence will be put back into the system, at a time when confidence has all but run out.

The only question that remains is how long before the entire fiasco is blown up via either war, outright default or some unknown source of paper money destruction. The situation is surely not helped one bit by the Republicans in the House walking out on budget negotiations - which they did yesterday - directly before a scheduled US default looms in the first week of August.

It was previously thought that raising the debt ceiling would be a slam dunk, though now even that looks dicey, and there are some who are hoping the US does default on its debt, though the consequences will be severe for most people, including those very politicians who refuse to take seriously the jobs they were elected to do.

As such, we, as a nation, slog along though the summer, hoping against hope that we will be saved, though the situation becomes more grim, more unsettled, more agitated with every passing day. The government is already "borrowing" from retirement funds of federal employees. In the case of a default (which may be all part of the master plan), those funds would be irretrievable, lost forever, crushing the hopes and dreams of millions. The cascading effect would be even more severe.

We are doomed thanks to the elite bankers and politicians in Washington.

Dow 11,934.58, -115.42 (0.96%)
NASDAQ 2,652.89, -33.86 (1.26%)
S&P 500 1,268.45, -15.05 (1.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,974.72, -79.36 (0.99%)


Declining issues toppled advancers once again, 4033-2507. There were 61 new highs and 52 new lows on the NASDAQ, while the NYSE recorded 49 new highs and 38 new lows. The combined figure was again in favor of the new highs, 110-90, a narrow win, but somewhat befuddling, considering the depth of the losses on the various indices. Volume was literally off the charts, more than double the norm on the NASDAQ and the highest of the year on the NYSE. There was obvious manipulation being done behind the curtains. That is the only explanation for such high volume, yet more new highs than new lows. The level of deceit by Wall Street and their friends in Washington is spectacular and actually quite frightening. We have entered an era of outright lies when it comes to all matters financial, and probably everything else, as well.

NASDAQ Volume 4,036,700,250
NYSE Volume 5,339,107,000


Oil was relatively stable, gaining only 14 cents, to close out the week at $91.16, the lowest close in three months. The usual raids were done on the precious metals, however, with gold being abused, down another $18.40, to $1502.30 and silver down 99 cents, to $34.32. As usual, in the minds of the political and banking elite, high oil and gas prices are just fine, but gold and silver must be destroyed at all costs.

It's simply insanity. Have a great weekend.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

The Old Dump and Pump

Stock traders - not investors - love action like today's on the US stock markets.

At the open the major indices plunged on news that the IEA and the United States would jointly release 60 million barrels of strategic reserves - 30 by the US, 30 by the IEA - to make up for supply shortages from the Lybian conflict. Furthering the desperate mood was the usual horrific chorus from Initial Unemployment Claims which came in much higher than anticipated (by idiots) at 429,000, plus, the prior week's claims were adjusted upward from 414K to 420K.

The revision should come without explanation. The BLS, who mangles the numbers, has revised claims upward just about every week for the past year-and-a-half, but those seeking an end to the jobs problems in America are surely going to have to wait longer.

Now, with all that bad news baked in, stocks were down precipitously, with the Dow off by more than 200 points for much of the session. But, lo and behold, just before 3:00 pm, word came from Europe that everything between Greece, the IMF and the ECB was just hunky-dorey. Greece would get their loans, the people would riot (a two-day general strike is already planned for next week), but all the bankers would be paid in full.

With that, the markets shaved a good 2/3rds off their losses, with the NASDAQ actually finishing in positive territory. Is this a stable economy, a stable market?

We will leave that question unanswered, hoping that bigger, brighter minds might offer some clues.

In any case, a lot of people got slaughtered, but you can bet your bottom dollar (if you still have one) that the bankster types at Goldman Sachs, JP MOrgan and Morgan Stanley had field days.

It's all good. Until it's not.

Dow 12,050.00, -59.67 (0.49%)
NASDAQ 2,686.75, +17.56 (0.66%)
S&P 500 1,283.50, -3.64 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 8,054.08, -47.76 (0.59%)


Declining issues still led advancers, 3611-2936. On the NASDAQ, there were 42 new highs and 71 new lows. The NYSE had just 28 new highs and 49 new lows. Uh-oh, our key indicator has flipped bearish again, so maybe the Greece bailout isn't all that important to the US. Or maybe it is? The combined total of 70 new highs and 120 new lows puts things back into perspective, despite the obviously-rigged nature of the equity markets. Volume was actually a little spunky for a change. After all, it takes a lot of trading to move stocks around so much.

NASDAQ Volume 2,070,676,500
NYSE Volume 4,946,733,500


With the news of new supply coming on the market (at a rate of 2 million barrels a day), WTI crude futures fell $4.39, to $91.02, and traded under $90 briefly in the morning. One might think this was all about oil, but maybe it was really about gold, the enemy of central bankers worldwide, which made a new record close yesterday and appeared ready to vault towards $1600 per ounce. It didn't happen, as the morning downdraft took apart all long trades. Gold was decimated, losing $26.90, to $1521.10, wiping out a month's worth of gains. Silver was not spared, losing $1.07, to $35.27. It was a pretty ugly day for everyone, but particularly for commodities traders.

Hot fun in the Summertime. Rigged markets are so much fun!