Over the weekend, House majority leader John Boehner genuflected to the Tea Party coalition of Republicans, put forth a bill that was sure to pass the House and die and the Senate, and that's exactly what happened.
By Monday morning, however, Senate majority leader Harry Reid had put together a compromise plan that has more chance of passing both bodies before the clock strikes midnight on the debt ceiling issue. Reid's plan calls for an initial $1 trillion in deficit reductions, all in the form of spending cuts, has a trigger for more cuts by Thanksgiving and puts the onus of delivering on mandatory cuts - should debate in congress not find suitable agreement - on a welve-member committee made up of six Republicans and six Democrats which would then make mandatory cuts to both Medicare and Defense spending among other programs.
While all this wrangling was going on the markets were closed over the weekend, but opened Monday morning in a very positive mood, with all major indices hitting their highs of the day within minutes after the opening bell.
The euphoric spirit was short-lived. At 10:00 am EDT, the ISM Index for July came in at 50.9, on expectations of a reading of 54.0. The sharp contraction - from 55.3 in June, reminded traders that whether or not the debt ceiling is raised, the US economy continues to stall out, sending all of the indices into free-fall. The Dow, which was up 139 points at the open, was lower by 100 points just 35 minutes later. Stocks continued to slide until the noon hour, bouncing off the bottom and finally rallying into the close, though all finished in negative territory.
For the Dow Jones Industrials, it was the seventh consecutive losing session, an event which has not occurred since 2002. And, as the market players took off their trading aprons and headed home, there still was no vote on the Reid plan, though indications were that both houses of congress would approve the measure and the president would sign it into law.
The debt ceiling, if the bill passes, will be raised to over $16.4 trillion, which should be enough to keep the Washington spendthrifts happy until after the 2012 elections. A vote is supposed to happen this afternoon or tonight, though no timetable has been announced.
What is annoying, or amusing, depending on your state of mind, is how the congress can waste so much time arguing, to only come up with a bill that satisfies nobody. The Tea Party faction held the public debt hostage, and likely will come out looking like winners in the end, though, typical of Washington, all will claim victory when actually nobody won a thing.
Meanwhile, we still await the vote, which is still somewhat in doubt.
Dow 12,132.49, -10.75 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,744.61, -11.77 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,286.94, -5.34 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,040.94, -38.50 (0.48%)
On the day, decliners beat advancers, 3416-3189. On the NASDAQ, 36 new highs were overshadowed by 99 new lows, while the NYSE registered 35 new highs and 93 new lows, making the combined total in favor of new lows, 192-71, continuing the sell signal. Volume was somewhat robust, as the kleptomaniacs behind the HFT (high frequency trading) computers shaved fractions from everyone on the way up, down and back up again.
NASDAQ Volume 2,176,811,750
NYSE Volume 4,948,650,500
Fortunately, crude oil, which was up sharply in the opening minutes of live trading, also reversed course and ended lower by 81 cents, at $94.89. Gold was also whipsawed, but ended down $9.50, at $1,621.70. Silver met a similar fate, losing 59 cents, to $39.31.
Whether or not the debt ceiling increase and debt reduction bill becomes law before the markets open tomorrow is in the hands of congress and president Obama, but the real test for markets will come later in the week, on Friday, when July non-farm payroll data is released. The market is expecting an increase of only 84,000 jobs, which would be bad enough to send stocks tumbling again. Many believe that number will not be met or even come close to, and that it's entirely possible that a number in the 20-30,000 range may be in store.
We'll get a preview on Wednesday, when ADP releases its private payroll report for the same period.
Money Daily will publish a special post, with more details, if and when the House and Senate approve the proposed legislation.
Monday, August 1, 2011
Friday, July 29, 2011
Traders Still Positive on Debt Limit Deal; Markets Spooked
It could have been so much worse.
US stocks took another tumble Friday, on revisions to 1st and 2nd quarter GDP and fears that the debt ceiling debate in Washington was running out of time.
An hour prior to the opening bell, the government reported its second revision to second quarter GDP, which came in at a measly 1.3%, but the greater shock was the revision to first quarter GDP, which was revised lower, from 1.9% growth to a frighteningly-low 0.4%. That sent shock waves through the futures market and US indices fell sharply at the open, hitting the lows of the day within the first 15 minutes of trading.
Just before 10:00 am EDT, Chicago PMI was reported to have fallen to 58.8 in July, lower than forecast, from 61.1 the prior month. That wasn't bad enough news, however, to shake off the nascent rally on rumors and hope that congress would decide on a debt ceiling increase by the end of the day or over the weekend.
As the session wore on, stocks moved sharply on any unfounded rumors, but eventually gave way late in the day, as lawmakers in the House of Representatives agreed, 236-186, to begin debate on House majority leader John Boehner's debt ceiling proposal, which had been in limbo since Tuesday because the measure did not have the backing of the Tea Party wing of the Republican party and - even if it did pass the House - was seen as almost certain to fail in the Senate. An actual vote on the measure is expected to come around 6:00 pm EDT Friday.
At the end of the day and end of the week, with no resolution on the debt issue and economic data overshadowing even the best corporate second quarter reports, the Dow finished lower for the sixth straight day, the S&P down for the last five, and the NASDAQ in negative territory for the fourth day out of the last five. On Thursday, the NASDAQ registered a gain of just over one-and-a-half points.
For the week, the Dow lost 538 points, a 4% decline. The S&P slipped 53 points, the NASDAQ shed 102 points and the NYSE composite fell by 328 points.
As bad as it was, stocks actually recovered half of their earlier losses on Friday. Still, it was the worst weekly performance for US indices in a year.
Dow 12,143.24, -96.87 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,756.38, -9.87 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,292.28, -8.39 (0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,079.44, -44.59 (0.55%)
Declining issues again dominated advancers, 4113-2476, and the gap between the expanding number of new lows and shrinking new highs worsened. On the NASDAQ, there were just 26 new highs, as compared to 114 new lows. The NYSE showed even worse, with just 16 new highs and 177 new lows. The combined totals of 42 new highs against 291 new lows is sending the strongest sell signal imaginable. Even if the congress does find a way to pass a debt ceiling increase by Tuesday, August 2, the damage for wasting time has been done the Moody's and S&P will likely downgrade US debt in short order, as they both have warned would occur if serious measures were not taken at this impasse.
Add to that the non-recovery "recovery" which has been represented by high unemployment and falling home prices and the recipe for further declines in equities is writ large.
Volume on the day was strong, another sign of a weakening stock market poised on the brink of turning losses into a major correction and a resumption of the bear market.
NASDAQ Volume 2,274,169,000
NYSE Volume 5,045,403,000
Among other interesting notes were the 10-year, which rose in price, but slumped in yield, down to 2.80%. The 30-year bond also hit a fresh low yield of 4.13%.
Oil took some losses, down $1.74, to $95.70. Gold made another intra-day high of $1637.50, before settling back to close at $1,628.30, up $14.90 for the day. Silver was up 31 cents, to $40.11 per ounce.
With the markets suffering their worst weekly losses in a year - coincidentally at the same time top economists are partying at their annual convention in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the same place that Fed Chairman announced the launch of QE2 last summer - the onus is on the congress to come with a plan that appeases not only both parties but the ratings agencies as well.
While it is doubtful they would let the August 2 date pass without a debt ceiling increase, the chances of them passing a bill before then that actually cuts spending appropriately are still quite long.
US stocks took another tumble Friday, on revisions to 1st and 2nd quarter GDP and fears that the debt ceiling debate in Washington was running out of time.
An hour prior to the opening bell, the government reported its second revision to second quarter GDP, which came in at a measly 1.3%, but the greater shock was the revision to first quarter GDP, which was revised lower, from 1.9% growth to a frighteningly-low 0.4%. That sent shock waves through the futures market and US indices fell sharply at the open, hitting the lows of the day within the first 15 minutes of trading.
Just before 10:00 am EDT, Chicago PMI was reported to have fallen to 58.8 in July, lower than forecast, from 61.1 the prior month. That wasn't bad enough news, however, to shake off the nascent rally on rumors and hope that congress would decide on a debt ceiling increase by the end of the day or over the weekend.
As the session wore on, stocks moved sharply on any unfounded rumors, but eventually gave way late in the day, as lawmakers in the House of Representatives agreed, 236-186, to begin debate on House majority leader John Boehner's debt ceiling proposal, which had been in limbo since Tuesday because the measure did not have the backing of the Tea Party wing of the Republican party and - even if it did pass the House - was seen as almost certain to fail in the Senate. An actual vote on the measure is expected to come around 6:00 pm EDT Friday.
At the end of the day and end of the week, with no resolution on the debt issue and economic data overshadowing even the best corporate second quarter reports, the Dow finished lower for the sixth straight day, the S&P down for the last five, and the NASDAQ in negative territory for the fourth day out of the last five. On Thursday, the NASDAQ registered a gain of just over one-and-a-half points.
For the week, the Dow lost 538 points, a 4% decline. The S&P slipped 53 points, the NASDAQ shed 102 points and the NYSE composite fell by 328 points.
As bad as it was, stocks actually recovered half of their earlier losses on Friday. Still, it was the worst weekly performance for US indices in a year.
Dow 12,143.24, -96.87 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,756.38, -9.87 (0.36%)
S&P 500 1,292.28, -8.39 (0.65%)
NYSE Composite 8,079.44, -44.59 (0.55%)
Declining issues again dominated advancers, 4113-2476, and the gap between the expanding number of new lows and shrinking new highs worsened. On the NASDAQ, there were just 26 new highs, as compared to 114 new lows. The NYSE showed even worse, with just 16 new highs and 177 new lows. The combined totals of 42 new highs against 291 new lows is sending the strongest sell signal imaginable. Even if the congress does find a way to pass a debt ceiling increase by Tuesday, August 2, the damage for wasting time has been done the Moody's and S&P will likely downgrade US debt in short order, as they both have warned would occur if serious measures were not taken at this impasse.
Add to that the non-recovery "recovery" which has been represented by high unemployment and falling home prices and the recipe for further declines in equities is writ large.
Volume on the day was strong, another sign of a weakening stock market poised on the brink of turning losses into a major correction and a resumption of the bear market.
NASDAQ Volume 2,274,169,000
NYSE Volume 5,045,403,000
Among other interesting notes were the 10-year, which rose in price, but slumped in yield, down to 2.80%. The 30-year bond also hit a fresh low yield of 4.13%.
Oil took some losses, down $1.74, to $95.70. Gold made another intra-day high of $1637.50, before settling back to close at $1,628.30, up $14.90 for the day. Silver was up 31 cents, to $40.11 per ounce.
With the markets suffering their worst weekly losses in a year - coincidentally at the same time top economists are partying at their annual convention in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the same place that Fed Chairman announced the launch of QE2 last summer - the onus is on the congress to come with a plan that appeases not only both parties but the ratings agencies as well.
While it is doubtful they would let the August 2 date pass without a debt ceiling increase, the chances of them passing a bill before then that actually cuts spending appropriately are still quite long.
The new store
Guest post from: Constance Rodgers
My new store did really well the first three years we were open, and then the recession hit. Since we were mostly a referral outfit things were great without much marketing at all but when the economy dried up, so did our business. We had to pour thousands of dollars into an advertising company so they could get things back on track and it turns out all we did was waste our money. I wish I had listened when my mother told me to save for something like this! Anyway, we’re still doing okay with the loyal clients we have but I’ve recently had to let two employees go and go to BANK-CARD-Processing.com to start taking credit cards for the first time. I know this market has been tough on everyone but I can’t help feeling like we got it worse than most. Wish me luck in the coming months since only time will tell if our little business is able to survive this awful, awful time in American history.
Safeguarding Against Identity Theft
Because our world is so digitized, with everything from banking to credit cards to stocks and futures trading taking place over the internet, hackers have found a gold mine in digging up and exploiting personal data.
Everything from your social security number to automobile registration and brokerage account data is online, and it's only a few clicks or an inadvertent error away from falling into the hands of unscrupulous types who would do harm to one's financial and personal life.
In the increasingly complex world of internet security a few simple tasks can help one steer clear of the villain hackers who steal everything from credit scores and bank accounts to one's personal identity, and the outcomes of having insufficient identity theft protection can be consequential and painful.
Most online accounts, like banking and credit cards offer a level of encryption and security as a first line of defense. Some offer additional information to be imputed before access is granted to an account. The easiest ways to avoid being hacked is to use difficult passwords, especially using characters and numbers, and to use any secondary security - like additional questions to grant access - as a further safeguard.
Even more effective are online identity security companies, which monitor and scrutinize data flows to guard against unlawful intrusions. One such company is IdentityHawk, which offers a comprehensive solution including social security number monitoring, 24/7 identity security scanning, risk assessment via an identity health score and $1 million in identity theft insurance.
The company offers a 30-day, no-obligation free trial and also provides credit score monitoring and even can help in recovering one's identity if it's already fallen victim to identity theft.
While it pays to be thrifty and frugal in these turbulent economic times, a few dollars spent protecting ones identity and valuable assets should be money well spent.
Everything from your social security number to automobile registration and brokerage account data is online, and it's only a few clicks or an inadvertent error away from falling into the hands of unscrupulous types who would do harm to one's financial and personal life.
In the increasingly complex world of internet security a few simple tasks can help one steer clear of the villain hackers who steal everything from credit scores and bank accounts to one's personal identity, and the outcomes of having insufficient identity theft protection can be consequential and painful.
Most online accounts, like banking and credit cards offer a level of encryption and security as a first line of defense. Some offer additional information to be imputed before access is granted to an account. The easiest ways to avoid being hacked is to use difficult passwords, especially using characters and numbers, and to use any secondary security - like additional questions to grant access - as a further safeguard.
Even more effective are online identity security companies, which monitor and scrutinize data flows to guard against unlawful intrusions. One such company is IdentityHawk, which offers a comprehensive solution including social security number monitoring, 24/7 identity security scanning, risk assessment via an identity health score and $1 million in identity theft insurance.
The company offers a 30-day, no-obligation free trial and also provides credit score monitoring and even can help in recovering one's identity if it's already fallen victim to identity theft.
While it pays to be thrifty and frugal in these turbulent economic times, a few dollars spent protecting ones identity and valuable assets should be money well spent.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
Hope Fades in Late-Day Selling
There really was no good reason for stocks to start the day higher, but they did, probably in response to initial unemployment claims falling below 400,000 for the first time in three months.
The actual figure was 398,000, and was probably significantly fudged and will almost certainly be revised higher next week, but in a market this tense, anything that even hints of being good news is taken and such, so off went the speculators and day-traders, looking for quick, easy, short-term profits.
Some were undeniably successful, as a good number of stocks made significant gains and the NASDAQ rebounded nicely, up more than 30 points, after Wednesday's debacle.
Highs of the day were right around noon, and form there it was all downhill, with an especially sharp decline at the 2:00 hour. With the exception of the NASDAQ, which finished with a gain of just over one point, all of the major indices finished in the red for the fourth straight session.
Dow 12,240.11, -62.44 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,766.25, +1.46 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,300.67, -4.22 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.03, -29.18 (0.36%)
Once again, declining issues led advancers, 3744-2735. NASDAQ new highs numbered a mere 18, with 83 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs were outnumbered by new lows, 25-107. This puts the combined total at 43 new highs and 190 new lows, screaming for continued selling. Volume was healthy for a change, though most of it was on the downside.
NASDAQ Volume 2,105,143,250
NYSE Volume 4,957,269,500
Commodities hugged the flat line for the most part. Crude oil was up just 4 cents, to $97.44. Gold slipped $1.70, to $1,613.40. Silver still is being suppressed by the likes of JP Morgan and HSBC, falling another 77 cents, to $39.79.
Kitco's Live 24-hour spot silver chart clearly shows that once silver is traded in the Hong Kong market, prices are relatively stable, but wild swings - mostly to the negative - occur with regularity during the NY GLOBEX and NYMEX daily sessions. The big banks have their shorts in place and have been waging a losing battle for the past three years. Despite their mendacious efforts at keeping the price of silver down, they have already failed miserably and it is only a matter of time before the entire global silver market comes unglued and price soars past $50, $60, even $70 per ounce.
Silver has been a top performer the past five years or so, and should continue to do well as the fiat currency regime comes crashing down. Price is quite high at the present, but eventually, holders will be rewarded.
It appears that there will be no debt ceiling solution before the weekend, leaving the fools in Washington with nothing else to do but pass a stand-alone debt ceiling raise, which is what should have been happening all along. The Republicans in the House have perverted and conjoined the debt ceiling with the budget and long-term finances, and they will look like the fools of the foolish when all is said and done come Tuesday.
The actual figure was 398,000, and was probably significantly fudged and will almost certainly be revised higher next week, but in a market this tense, anything that even hints of being good news is taken and such, so off went the speculators and day-traders, looking for quick, easy, short-term profits.
Some were undeniably successful, as a good number of stocks made significant gains and the NASDAQ rebounded nicely, up more than 30 points, after Wednesday's debacle.
Highs of the day were right around noon, and form there it was all downhill, with an especially sharp decline at the 2:00 hour. With the exception of the NASDAQ, which finished with a gain of just over one point, all of the major indices finished in the red for the fourth straight session.
Dow 12,240.11, -62.44 (0.51%)
NASDAQ 2,766.25, +1.46 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,300.67, -4.22 (0.32%)
NYSE Composite 8,124.03, -29.18 (0.36%)
Once again, declining issues led advancers, 3744-2735. NASDAQ new highs numbered a mere 18, with 83 new lows. On the NYSE, new highs were outnumbered by new lows, 25-107. This puts the combined total at 43 new highs and 190 new lows, screaming for continued selling. Volume was healthy for a change, though most of it was on the downside.
NASDAQ Volume 2,105,143,250
NYSE Volume 4,957,269,500
Commodities hugged the flat line for the most part. Crude oil was up just 4 cents, to $97.44. Gold slipped $1.70, to $1,613.40. Silver still is being suppressed by the likes of JP Morgan and HSBC, falling another 77 cents, to $39.79.
Kitco's Live 24-hour spot silver chart clearly shows that once silver is traded in the Hong Kong market, prices are relatively stable, but wild swings - mostly to the negative - occur with regularity during the NY GLOBEX and NYMEX daily sessions. The big banks have their shorts in place and have been waging a losing battle for the past three years. Despite their mendacious efforts at keeping the price of silver down, they have already failed miserably and it is only a matter of time before the entire global silver market comes unglued and price soars past $50, $60, even $70 per ounce.
Silver has been a top performer the past five years or so, and should continue to do well as the fiat currency regime comes crashing down. Price is quite high at the present, but eventually, holders will be rewarded.
It appears that there will be no debt ceiling solution before the weekend, leaving the fools in Washington with nothing else to do but pass a stand-alone debt ceiling raise, which is what should have been happening all along. The Republicans in the House have perverted and conjoined the debt ceiling with the budget and long-term finances, and they will look like the fools of the foolish when all is said and done come Tuesday.
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