Showing posts with label Harry Reid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Harry Reid. Show all posts

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Market Drops, Rallies on Fiscal Cliff Fears, Hopes

OK, now, this is getting interesting.

Stocks sold off severely in the early going, as Wall Street seems to be getting a little bit tired of waiting for the politicians to come to some kind of deal - any kind of deal - on the fiscal cliff issues.

Taking center stage today were Senate majority leader, Harry Reid, and minority leader, Mitch McConnell.

Reid made some noises about the House not even being in session, and, late in the day, McConnell made comments about how the Republicans have been waiting months for the Democrats to meet with them, without success.

During the session, stocks were hit hard to the downside, with the Dow off by as many as 150 points, but, about 2:30 pm ET, when news broke that John Boehner was calling the House back into session on Sunday, stocks miraculously starting gaining ground, with all of the major indices eventually reaching positive territory before giving back a bit to close slightly negative, though the NYSE Composite ended with a gain of four points.

There was other news that may have caught the attention of traders, particularly, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence reading, which registered a disappointing 65.1, after last month's overly optimistic 73.7 was revised down to 71.5.

The number caught everyone off guard and triggered the initial sell-off.

As for negotiations on the fiscal cliff, there aren't any. Both sides have resorted to name-calling and jawboning precisely at a time both sides should be reaching compromise.

Having the House in session on Sunday, December 30, is a hopeful sign that there is some progress behind the scenes, even though nobody's reporting any.

The saga continues...

Dow 13,096.31, -18.28 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,985.91, -4.25 (0.14%)
S&P 500 1,418.09, -1.74 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,399.84, -4.36 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,314,243,625
NYSE Volume 2,816,814,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2473-3032
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 74-61
WTI crude oil: 90.87, -0.11
Gold: 1,663.70, +3.00
Silver: 30.24, +0.205

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Wall Street to Washington, the Clown Show Continues

OK, it's finally gotten officially stupid to invest any money at all in stocks, though judging by the massive outflows from stock-related mutual funds to bond funds, it seems that may be preaching to the choir as far as retail investors are concerned.

Today saw more ridiculous posturing and pontification by various US public office-holders, first by House Speaker John Boehner (who seems to relish in the publicity and his new-found super-power, capable of moving stock indices with a single phrase) who, after meeting with the president's chief negotiator - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner - said that there had been no substantive progress on the fiscal cliff issues in two weeks (no kidding!) and that the president needs to put his cards on the table.

Apparently, Geithner is stone-walling for Obama, insisting on allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire on the wealthiest taxpayers - those earning over $250,000 - while allowing them to remain in place for everyone else, but Boehner is likely still insisting on concrete spending cuts. Both have good ideas, though the probability of a realistic compromise appears to be still a ways off.

So, Boehner steps to the microphone a few minutes after 11:30 am ET, says a few words and the Dow loses 50 points in about a minute. A little while later, Senate Leader Harry Reid takes his turn and stocks recover a bit. Maybe Harry has a gentler touch? But stocks went up even more when NY Senator Chuck (I represent Israel) Schumer took to the podium and said a deal was almost a certainty by Christmas, once again, overstating the obvious. Senator Schumer probably had an options straddle working, needed a few extra points on the SPY and he got them.

Nancy Pelosi threatened to speak nearing the close, but held off until after the final bell. Apparently, Mrs. Pelosi plays the futures markets. It's all so absurd, the great Saul Bellow could not have penned a more abstract, obtuse script.

Other than the fiscal cliff bad theater, existing home sales in October were reported to have increased by 5.2% percent over the previous month, third quarter GDP was revised upward from 2.0% to 2.7%, which the market had expected, though most of the gains came from government spending, inventory additions and hedonic adjustments.

Retail Sales for November were reported by a number of chain stores, showing an overall gain of 1.7%, well below the happy forecast of a 4-5% jump. Naturally, Hurricane Sandy was blamed for much of the shortfall, though actual sales declines at Kohl's (down 5.6%), Macy's and Nordstom's were more likely due to a combination of competition, poor marketing and overall sluggish demand by consumers, who can only buy so many 42-inch flat screens, iPods and clothes on limited budgets.

Also, this graphic caught some attention. It shows how former Goldman Sachs executives are now the central bankers of most of Europe. No wonder they're doing so well over there.

Gold was up sharply, as was oil and silver, a day after being belted down by unseen forces. Silver, in particular, is at a two-month high, and looks like its about to break out, though that's been said and seen before, with no follow-through, thanks to the suppressive work constantly being done at JP Morgan.

The big tent will open for the circus promptly at 9:30 am ET tomorrow.

Dow 13,021.82, +36.71 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,012.03, +20.25 (0.68%)
S&P 500 1,415.95, +6.02 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite, 8,256.07, +48.71 (0.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,758,355,875.00
NYSE Volume 3,337,720,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3963-1531
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 233-30
WTI crude oil: 88.07, +1.58
Gold: 1,727.20, +10.70
Silver: 34.35, +0.664

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Washington Gets Back to Work (Kinda); Stocks Slump Despite (Kinda) Positive Data

Tuesday began with a flurry of good news.

First, over in Bizzarro-world(aka Europe), EU ministers were glad-handing and slapping each other's backs for another successful bailout of Greece (really, is this the third, fourth or fifth? Who's counting?), then, at 8:30 am ET, durable goods orders came in better than expected.

At 9:00 am ET, the September Case-Shiller Housing Index showed another in a series of positive gains for housing. Better yet, consumer confidence hit a four-and-a-half-year high, reported at 10:00 am ET.

So, why were the markets in such a sour mood, why did they end lower, and why were they not even lower than where they finished?

Ah, grasshopper, so many questions...

First, that somewhat refreshing zero print on durables was, in fact, pretty ugly, once one ventured to peek under the hood. As Zero Hedge reports, a continued collapse in durable goods new orders virtually guarantees that we're already in a recession, fiscal cliff or not (more on that canard later).

The Case-Shiller data, which showed the average price of a home purchase up by 3.6% nationally, has to be faded a little, only because housing is not stocks, and, even though home-buying is a relevant statistic, it matters little in the broader scheme of things, especially when the banks are keeping massive numbers of homes off the market in what's known as "foreclosure stuffing." Those in the know, really, really do know.

As far as the consumer confidence number, well, anybody who allows themselves to be branded a consumer for purposes of a survey can't be all that bright, after all.

In the case of the nth installment of the Greek bailout, there were scant details, the IMF hasn't signed off on it yet, the "deal" has to be approved by each member (17) country, so, the Euro sold off, anathema to US markets.

And then, about 2:30 pm ET, US lawmakers (that's a joke, son) emerged from talks over the fiscal cliff (that's not a pun, son) and did what everyone thought they'd do, since their track record is so plain and clear on this point: point fingers at the other side for not playing fairly.

Senate majority leader Harry Reid: "...little progress with Republicans..."

Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell: "...some difficulty turning off the campaign..."

Is it any surprise to anybody that working out a deal in DC was going to be a difficult, if not impossible, issue? After all, this whole "fiscal cliff" miasma started more than a year ago when the two sides failed to reach conciliatory postures on increasing the debt limit, and that puny increase of roughly $1.2 trillion is about to run out.

So, with no deal even remotely being discussed, the Titans of Wall Street started selling in earnest and continued selling into the close. They will probably still be selling when the opening bell rings on Wednesday and maybe even beyond that, because depending on Washington politicians to reach a concord on any matter of even insignificant importance is like getting cats and frogs to behave well together. It's just not going to happen.

Further, indispensable reading from the Wall Street Journal comes in the form of an editorial by Chris Cox and Bill Archer - respectively, former chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee and the Securities and Exchange Commission and former chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee - explaining why the fiscal cliff of $600 billion is merely a puff of smoke compared to the conflagration that is the real unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security, refreshingly written in language even a protesting Wal-Mart worker could comprehend.

The saga continues to unfold tomorrow. Oh, by the way, so many people did their holiday shopping on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Small Business Saturday and online on Cyber Monday this year, and, considering that since Turkey Day was so early this year that there's an extra week in the holiday shopping season, retail sales are going to be very slow for the one, two, three, four next weeks, until the last Saturday before Christmas (the 25th is a Tuesday), so, Happy Holidays! Free houses, Greek bailouts, durable goods and fiscal cliff-diving for everyone... including consumers!

Dow 12,878.13, -89.24 (0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,967.79, -8.99 (0.30%)
S&P 500 1,398.94, -7.35 (0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 1.65% -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,294,930,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,762,521,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2462-3041
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 154-40
WTI crude oil: 87.18, -0.56
Gold: 1,742.30, -7.30
Silver: 33.98, -0.156

Monday, August 1, 2011

Down to the Wire on Debt Ceiling Compromise

Over the weekend, House majority leader John Boehner genuflected to the Tea Party coalition of Republicans, put forth a bill that was sure to pass the House and die and the Senate, and that's exactly what happened.

By Monday morning, however, Senate majority leader Harry Reid had put together a compromise plan that has more chance of passing both bodies before the clock strikes midnight on the debt ceiling issue. Reid's plan calls for an initial $1 trillion in deficit reductions, all in the form of spending cuts, has a trigger for more cuts by Thanksgiving and puts the onus of delivering on mandatory cuts - should debate in congress not find suitable agreement - on a welve-member committee made up of six Republicans and six Democrats which would then make mandatory cuts to both Medicare and Defense spending among other programs.

While all this wrangling was going on the markets were closed over the weekend, but opened Monday morning in a very positive mood, with all major indices hitting their highs of the day within minutes after the opening bell.

The euphoric spirit was short-lived. At 10:00 am EDT, the ISM Index for July came in at 50.9, on expectations of a reading of 54.0. The sharp contraction - from 55.3 in June, reminded traders that whether or not the debt ceiling is raised, the US economy continues to stall out, sending all of the indices into free-fall. The Dow, which was up 139 points at the open, was lower by 100 points just 35 minutes later. Stocks continued to slide until the noon hour, bouncing off the bottom and finally rallying into the close, though all finished in negative territory.

For the Dow Jones Industrials, it was the seventh consecutive losing session, an event which has not occurred since 2002. And, as the market players took off their trading aprons and headed home, there still was no vote on the Reid plan, though indications were that both houses of congress would approve the measure and the president would sign it into law.

The debt ceiling, if the bill passes, will be raised to over $16.4 trillion, which should be enough to keep the Washington spendthrifts happy until after the 2012 elections. A vote is supposed to happen this afternoon or tonight, though no timetable has been announced.

What is annoying, or amusing, depending on your state of mind, is how the congress can waste so much time arguing, to only come up with a bill that satisfies nobody. The Tea Party faction held the public debt hostage, and likely will come out looking like winners in the end, though, typical of Washington, all will claim victory when actually nobody won a thing.

Meanwhile, we still await the vote, which is still somewhat in doubt.

Dow 12,132.49, -10.75 (0.09%)
NASDAQ 2,744.61, -11.77 (0.43%)
S&P 500 1,286.94, -5.34 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,040.94, -38.50 (0.48%)


On the day, decliners beat advancers, 3416-3189. On the NASDAQ, 36 new highs were overshadowed by 99 new lows, while the NYSE registered 35 new highs and 93 new lows, making the combined total in favor of new lows, 192-71, continuing the sell signal. Volume was somewhat robust, as the kleptomaniacs behind the HFT (high frequency trading) computers shaved fractions from everyone on the way up, down and back up again.

NASDAQ Volume 2,176,811,750
NYSE Volume 4,948,650,500


Fortunately, crude oil, which was up sharply in the opening minutes of live trading, also reversed course and ended lower by 81 cents, at $94.89. Gold was also whipsawed, but ended down $9.50, at $1,621.70. Silver met a similar fate, losing 59 cents, to $39.31.

Whether or not the debt ceiling increase and debt reduction bill becomes law before the markets open tomorrow is in the hands of congress and president Obama, but the real test for markets will come later in the week, on Friday, when July non-farm payroll data is released. The market is expecting an increase of only 84,000 jobs, which would be bad enough to send stocks tumbling again. Many believe that number will not be met or even come close to, and that it's entirely possible that a number in the 20-30,000 range may be in store.

We'll get a preview on Wednesday, when ADP releases its private payroll report for the same period.

Money Daily will publish a special post, with more details, if and when the House and Senate approve the proposed legislation.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Rattled Market Recovers in Late-Session Trade

Investors, worried over an imminent government shutdown, got another jolt of reality when it was reported that a 7.4 earthquake struck Japan just after 10:00 am EDT.

The quake struck in pretty much the same region as last month's 9.0 earthquake, but geologists quickly downgraded the temblor to 7.1 and eased fears over another tsunami, measuring this one at a mere one meter (roughly three feet). This most recent quake hit in what was the middle of the night in Japan, so reports were rather sketchy, though it appeared that damage had been minimal.

With the waning of that alarm, investors quickly got back to work buying stocks, bringing the major indices back to nearly break-even at the close.

Word out of Washington was still dire, suggesting that Republicans would force Democrats into a no-win situation without resolution of their differences and cause a government shutdown on Friday night, April 8, at midnight. While most Republicans and Democrats alike would prefer to work out the narrow $7 billion worth of difference on the current budget, the House Republicans, led by first-term Tea Partiers, seem intent on standing fast to ridiculous ideological riders that would defund Planned Parenthood and public support for PBS and NPR, and it appears that these freshman legislators are going to get what they cheered yesterday, an indefinite shutdown of non-essential government services, since the Obama administration and the Senate Democrats say they have negotiated in good faith and enough is enough.

Just a little more than a day is left to work out a compromise, though a meeting today between House leader John Boehner, senate leader Harry Reid and President Obama produced nothing other than a promise that the same leaders would meet again at 7:00 pm tonight.

In another grandstanding move, House Republicans pushed through a one-week funding bill that would provide paychecks for the military, though President Obama has promised a veto should the measure reach his desk. This is how the Republicans are holding the process captive, by using American servicemen and women as props in their political debate. This level of audacity and below-the-belt maneuvering is reserved to the worst politicians on the planet, though the House newcomers seem perfectly content to drive the country to the brink of insolvency.

Wall Street took it in stride, but the eventual fallout from shutting the government down for an extended period could have long-lasting consequences the newbie Republicans can hardly imagine.

Dow 12,409.49, -17.26 (0.14%)
NASDAQ 2,796.14, -3.68 (0.13%)
S&P 500 1,333.51, -2.03 (0.15%)
NYSE Composite 8,489.33, -18.90 (0.22%)


Even though the major indices finished in the red, there was a pronounced number of losers over winners, with declining issues beating back advancing ones, 4092-2427. The NASDAQ finished with 115 new highs and 24 new lows, while the NYSE saw 154 new highs and just 4 new lows. Volume, despite the drop and rally in the morning, was still very much on the light side.

NASDAQ Volume 1,811,538,125.00
NYSE Volume 4,322,927,000


The day's events did nothing to slow the rise in the price of oil, however, as WTI crude futures rose to $110.30, up another $1.47 on the day, as word that Libyan rebels were being pushed back by forces loyal to embattled leader Moammar Gadhafi.

Gold made another new closing high, but only by an 80 cent gain, to $1,459.30. Silver tacked on 17 cents, to $39.55, another 31-year high.

With a looming government shutdown less than 36 hours away, markets are more than likely to remain somewhat stable, though a prolonged battle by the political leadership might be more than the fragile economy can handle. Sadly, the amount in question is tiny compared to the intellectual vacuity of the Tea Party Republicans.