The Wall Street HTF machines must have been cranked up to maximum momentum on yet another day without any notable news or data, because stocks, after an early dive into the red, continued an inexorable advance throughout the session, pushing all major indices to positive or flat closes.
Despite Alcoa (AA) announcing in-line earnings on Monday, there haven't been any companies of import releasing full year and 4th quarter results this week. That should all change next week when the market will be inundated with quarterly and year-end reports from a plethora of firms, but so far this week, the markets have had little to move on in either direction.
Instead of pouring into or out of positions, as is often the case in the first few weeks of a new year, traders have been stuck in neutral the past five sessions, and the rest of the week doesn't offer much in the way of market-moving events or news.
The fed released its beige book, detailing what everybody already knows: that the US economy is limping along, unemployment remains a stubborn problem, housing is still weak and December retail was something of a non-event. Even word from the almighty Federal Reserve did nothing to move stocks.
Down 63 points shortly after 10:00 am ET, the Dow finally pushed into positive territory in the final 20 minutes of trading before falling back to red at the close. Leading the slow surge, the NASDAQ had been positive most of the session, with the S&P following the Dow's path, finally finishing with a fractional gain.
One notable item not mentioned around the trading posts was the upcoming debacle of another debt ceiling increase, just five months after the congress and president Obama wrangled over raising the ceiling last August. Our brilliant leaders have managed to blow through some $900 billion in fresh debt since then and will need another rise, which was negotiated in the initial bill.
President Obama is set to ask congress for another $1.2 to $1.5 trillion in a matter of days. The congress will have 15 days to decide whether to grant Mr. Obama his wish. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling will be once again breached, and, after appropriate dummy theater, the congress will oblige. The rhetoric should be especially thick this time around, especially with debate on whether to keep the inappropriately-named payroll tax decrease for the remainder of the year. That deal runs out at the end of February.
Political junkies will enjoy the show; the rest of us will entertain emotions from boredom to disgust. Thank God for the NFL playoffs.
Dow 12,449.45, -13.02 (0.10%)
NASDAQ 2,710.76, +8.26 (0.31%)
S&P 500 1,292.48, +0.40 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite 7,662.17, -6.73 (0.09%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,712,712,875
NYSE Volume 3,965,303,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3208-2391
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 112-36
WTI crude oil: 101.73, -0.51
Gold: 1,639.60, +8.10
Silver: 29.89, +0.08
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Markets Are Just BLAH
Blah.
That's the one word that describes this market and generally the state of US equity markets for the past month.
Yesterday was the low volume day for the new year. Today wasn't much better.
Today, stocks shot up at the open, reached the highs of the day early on and drifted in a narrow range for the remainder of the session. That's it. Nothing happened that would affect markets in either direction. The Ponzi scheme of the banks, the Fed and the government is working to perfection. Stocks will slowly move higher until there's some need to liquidate (like options expiration next week).
Otherwise, shut up and spend, peons. Everything you need will get more expensive while your wages stagnate or get cut, unless you work for the government or collect a welfare, disability or SS check.
45 million on food stamps. No growth. No incentive to start new businesses. Overregulation. The American Dream died somewhere between 9/11 and the mortgage meltdown which began in 2007. Get ready for a long, slow, painful decade of dashed hopes and failed families.
(I wish I could be more optimistic, but it's simply not possible.)
Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Does it really matter? Both are tools of the banking elite as are most of your senators and representatives in the House.
Not only is the economy crumbling, so is the whole country, from the infrastructure to the societal norms to civil liberties, which have been dashed and pounded into dust the past 11 years.
Just BLAH. And, BAH!
Dow 12,462.47, +69.78 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,702.50, +25.94 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,292.08, +11.38 (0.89%)
NYSE Composite 7,668.90, +84.24 (1.11%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,815,157,750
NYSE Volume 4,201,000,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4221-1407
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 252-42
WTI crude oil: 102.24, +0.93
Gold: 1,631.50, +23.40
Silver: 29.82, +1.03
That's the one word that describes this market and generally the state of US equity markets for the past month.
Yesterday was the low volume day for the new year. Today wasn't much better.
Today, stocks shot up at the open, reached the highs of the day early on and drifted in a narrow range for the remainder of the session. That's it. Nothing happened that would affect markets in either direction. The Ponzi scheme of the banks, the Fed and the government is working to perfection. Stocks will slowly move higher until there's some need to liquidate (like options expiration next week).
Otherwise, shut up and spend, peons. Everything you need will get more expensive while your wages stagnate or get cut, unless you work for the government or collect a welfare, disability or SS check.
45 million on food stamps. No growth. No incentive to start new businesses. Overregulation. The American Dream died somewhere between 9/11 and the mortgage meltdown which began in 2007. Get ready for a long, slow, painful decade of dashed hopes and failed families.
(I wish I could be more optimistic, but it's simply not possible.)
Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Does it really matter? Both are tools of the banking elite as are most of your senators and representatives in the House.
Not only is the economy crumbling, so is the whole country, from the infrastructure to the societal norms to civil liberties, which have been dashed and pounded into dust the past 11 years.
Just BLAH. And, BAH!
Dow 12,462.47, +69.78 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,702.50, +25.94 (0.97%)
S&P 500 1,292.08, +11.38 (0.89%)
NYSE Composite 7,668.90, +84.24 (1.11%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,815,157,750
NYSE Volume 4,201,000,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4221-1407
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 252-42
WTI crude oil: 102.24, +0.93
Gold: 1,631.50, +23.40
Silver: 29.82, +1.03
Monday, January 9, 2012
Euro a Bit Higher; Stocks Barely Respond as Sinking Feeling Persists
After the first week of trading turned out to be one big cork pop on January 3rd - when the Dow soared 180 points, mostly at the open - and a slow melt lower, the first Monday of the new year was more evidence of just how sick, tired and moribund global markets have become. It's as though everybody is just waiting for the other shoe to drop, that some seismic implosion - most likely in Europe - is about to send stocks into a prolonged tailspin that ends in repudiation of sovereign debt and another huge blow to the fiat-based banking system.
Evidence exists that all is not well in Euroland, while pundits here in America point to the only positive metric they can see, higher corporate profits, though even there, signs are beginning to emerge that the record profits from 2011 are as fleeting as the passage of a few moments in time.
Estimates for 4th quarter corporate earnings have been slashed, and the number of pre-announcements from companies is at a three-year high, harkening back to the dismal days of early 2009, when there was nothing anybody or any company could do to halt the continuing downturn.
Even today's rather slow-moving market was full of tepid trading, highlighted by fractional moves in the averages, suggesting that nothing short of a complete overhaul of Europe's finances - and maybe even our own - can provide the kind of stimulus needed to restore investor confidence, which has waned severely since the middle of last year.
Even the bold joint pronouncement today by France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel failed to inspire any confidence. The two leaders set a timetable of March 1 for Euro-zone leaders to detail a plan of stricter budgetary restraint among member nations. Of course, critics and skeptics claim to have heard that song before. In the original agreement, a nation's current deficit was not supposed to exceed 3%. Any claims that sovereign states will clean up their balance sheets and act responsibly is met with jeers and, soon, tears.
America met a seminal moment in its own history today, as the nation's debt equalled its GDP, putting the world's powerhouse economy on a level approaching that of Italy, Greece or Portugal.
For its part, the White House appears ready to jettison all the bad residential loans held at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by turning them over to investors in bulk, with an eye toward turning over two million foreclosed and now-delinquent homes into rental properties, overseen by a hand-picked, large, well-capitalized property management firms.
The plan was first introduced by the Federal Reserve last week, though our friend Jim Willie, aka, the Golden Jackass, has been predicting such a move for the past two years, with deleterious effects abundant. The problems, from even a casual point of view, range from traditional homeowners being shut out of owning affordable housing and being forced to rent at increasingly-expensive rates, to the potential of default on property taxes should one of these "well-financed" firms going bust. It's almost the sub-prime crisis in reverse and is a radical departure from the American dream of home-ownership.
The property managers will likely receive sweet-heart deals from the government, slashing the prices to be paid on the homes instead of offering principal write-downs to strapped homeowners or new, qualified applicants because banks have been steadfastly denying mortgages and credit to even the most risk averse individuals and families.
We are quickly heading into a bleak, black hole of socialism, wherein the next shoe to drop won't be a ballet slipper but rather the boot of the storm trooper landing squarely on the necks of millions of tax-and-debt slaves, while the rich get bailouts and the poor get handouts.
Fairness is a word that seems to have permanently departed the American scene. Economic ugliness and despair approaches at breakneck speed all in the name of keeping up appearances.
After the closing bell, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season with a disappointing, yet fitting, loss of three cents per share.
Dow 12,392.69, +32.77 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,676.56, +2.34 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,280.70, +2.89 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 7,583.76, +26.08 (0.35%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,777,449,250
NYSE Volume 3,248,196,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3385-2189
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 170-62
WTI crude oil: 101.31, -0.25
Gold: 1,608.10, -8.70
Silver: 28.78, +0.10
Evidence exists that all is not well in Euroland, while pundits here in America point to the only positive metric they can see, higher corporate profits, though even there, signs are beginning to emerge that the record profits from 2011 are as fleeting as the passage of a few moments in time.
Estimates for 4th quarter corporate earnings have been slashed, and the number of pre-announcements from companies is at a three-year high, harkening back to the dismal days of early 2009, when there was nothing anybody or any company could do to halt the continuing downturn.
Even today's rather slow-moving market was full of tepid trading, highlighted by fractional moves in the averages, suggesting that nothing short of a complete overhaul of Europe's finances - and maybe even our own - can provide the kind of stimulus needed to restore investor confidence, which has waned severely since the middle of last year.
Even the bold joint pronouncement today by France's Nicolas Sarkozy and Germany's Angela Merkel failed to inspire any confidence. The two leaders set a timetable of March 1 for Euro-zone leaders to detail a plan of stricter budgetary restraint among member nations. Of course, critics and skeptics claim to have heard that song before. In the original agreement, a nation's current deficit was not supposed to exceed 3%. Any claims that sovereign states will clean up their balance sheets and act responsibly is met with jeers and, soon, tears.
America met a seminal moment in its own history today, as the nation's debt equalled its GDP, putting the world's powerhouse economy on a level approaching that of Italy, Greece or Portugal.
For its part, the White House appears ready to jettison all the bad residential loans held at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by turning them over to investors in bulk, with an eye toward turning over two million foreclosed and now-delinquent homes into rental properties, overseen by a hand-picked, large, well-capitalized property management firms.
The plan was first introduced by the Federal Reserve last week, though our friend Jim Willie, aka, the Golden Jackass, has been predicting such a move for the past two years, with deleterious effects abundant. The problems, from even a casual point of view, range from traditional homeowners being shut out of owning affordable housing and being forced to rent at increasingly-expensive rates, to the potential of default on property taxes should one of these "well-financed" firms going bust. It's almost the sub-prime crisis in reverse and is a radical departure from the American dream of home-ownership.
The property managers will likely receive sweet-heart deals from the government, slashing the prices to be paid on the homes instead of offering principal write-downs to strapped homeowners or new, qualified applicants because banks have been steadfastly denying mortgages and credit to even the most risk averse individuals and families.
We are quickly heading into a bleak, black hole of socialism, wherein the next shoe to drop won't be a ballet slipper but rather the boot of the storm trooper landing squarely on the necks of millions of tax-and-debt slaves, while the rich get bailouts and the poor get handouts.
Fairness is a word that seems to have permanently departed the American scene. Economic ugliness and despair approaches at breakneck speed all in the name of keeping up appearances.
After the closing bell, Alcoa (AA) kicked off earnings season with a disappointing, yet fitting, loss of three cents per share.
Dow 12,392.69, +32.77 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,676.56, +2.34 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,280.70, +2.89 (0.23%)
NYSE Composite 7,583.76, +26.08 (0.35%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,777,449,250
NYSE Volume 3,248,196,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3385-2189
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 170-62
WTI crude oil: 101.31, -0.25
Gold: 1,608.10, -8.70
Silver: 28.78, +0.10
Estate Litigation Requires Competent, Trustworthy Lawyers
Dealing with windfalls, such as an inheritance, can be a time-consuming, albeit eventually rewarding experience, if one is willing to make the effort to investigate the details of an estate and seek out professional counsel to handle the intricate and sometimes thorny parts of the various statutes of estate law.
Laws covering estates generally fall under the laws of individual states or, in Canada, specific provinces, but all estate law is bound in principal by federal statues and subject to tax, though, like the federal income tax, there are wide swathes of exclusions, exemptions and deductions which allow rightful heirs to keep much of what is being passed on from a decedent.
The most arduous part of the process is called probate, wherein a court will examine the will, determine the heirs and the executor (if named in the will, otherwise one will be appointed by the court or chosen by the heirs), set up a tax account and begin the process of separating out assets and liabilities.
The two most important individuals involved in the handling of an estate are the executor and the estate lawyer, and it's of paramount importance that the executor locate and retain a qualified specialist, preferably in the geographical location of the deceased, because, generally, that's where most of the assets will be located.
It's not a difficult task to find qualified estate attorneys in one's particular city of town, thanks to the internet. For instance, somebody looking for a lawyer in Barrie, Ontario, would simply enter search terms on Bing or Google for estate lawyer barrie to return a list of qualified practitioners of estate litigation and then proceed to contact the best and/or most reputable.
Both the executor and the attorney are limited to the amount they can receive from handling an estate. Usually, the amount is a percentage of net assets, somewhere in the range of three to six percent. This generally-universal feature of estate law provides a safeguard to rightful heirs that an unscrupulous executor or attorney (yes, there are a few) cannot appropriate the best or most valuable assets of an estate, be they in the form of real estate, securities, goods or cash in bank accounts.
Dealing with the death of a loved one is an emotional issue for many, but keeping in close contact with the executor over the period of the "estate year" (generally the amount of time it takes to settle and discharge a will and estate) is a good idea for heirs who believe they are entitled to a share of the disbursement.
Laws covering estates generally fall under the laws of individual states or, in Canada, specific provinces, but all estate law is bound in principal by federal statues and subject to tax, though, like the federal income tax, there are wide swathes of exclusions, exemptions and deductions which allow rightful heirs to keep much of what is being passed on from a decedent.
The most arduous part of the process is called probate, wherein a court will examine the will, determine the heirs and the executor (if named in the will, otherwise one will be appointed by the court or chosen by the heirs), set up a tax account and begin the process of separating out assets and liabilities.
The two most important individuals involved in the handling of an estate are the executor and the estate lawyer, and it's of paramount importance that the executor locate and retain a qualified specialist, preferably in the geographical location of the deceased, because, generally, that's where most of the assets will be located.
It's not a difficult task to find qualified estate attorneys in one's particular city of town, thanks to the internet. For instance, somebody looking for a lawyer in Barrie, Ontario, would simply enter search terms on Bing or Google for estate lawyer barrie to return a list of qualified practitioners of estate litigation and then proceed to contact the best and/or most reputable.
Both the executor and the attorney are limited to the amount they can receive from handling an estate. Usually, the amount is a percentage of net assets, somewhere in the range of three to six percent. This generally-universal feature of estate law provides a safeguard to rightful heirs that an unscrupulous executor or attorney (yes, there are a few) cannot appropriate the best or most valuable assets of an estate, be they in the form of real estate, securities, goods or cash in bank accounts.
Dealing with the death of a loved one is an emotional issue for many, but keeping in close contact with the executor over the period of the "estate year" (generally the amount of time it takes to settle and discharge a will and estate) is a good idea for heirs who believe they are entitled to a share of the disbursement.
Friday, January 6, 2012
Stocks Finish First Week of 2012 in Mixed Fashion, Though Higher for Week
Yesterday, a commenter on a popular blog site made the bold statement that we may have already seen the highs for the year - meaning 2012, just three trading days into the new year.
While this prognosis has already been proven wrong vis-a-vis the NASDAQ, which was the only major US index to finish with a gain today, he may actually have a point.
Holiday sales figures continue to trickle in, and, as expected, the optimistic gains predicted by the National Federation of Retailers (talk about having an agenda!) have been somewhat diminished. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that November-December sales were up just 3.3%, as opposed to last year's 3.8% gain and less than the NFR's rosy 4.5% prediction.
While companies such as Limited Brands, Macy's and Nordstrom showed solid gains over last year, their revenue figures may have exacted a serious toll on their profit margins and earnings. Target, Kohl's, Best Buy and J.C. Penney have already slashed their 4th quarter estimates, citing warmer-than-usual weather and a tough economy (duh!) as the main factors contributing to a slowdown in holiday sales.
Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer by number of stores and gross sales volume does not report figures on a month-by-month basis, but was expected to have had a good, though not stellar, holiday sales season.
Bloomingdale's and Macy's have already announced planned store closures as America's appetite for non-stop spending on non-essentials seems to have fallen victim to real economic pain.
Today's release of the BLS' December non-farm payroll data put credence to the idea that Thursday's ADP announcement of 325,000 net new private sector jobs in the month was - as usual - coming from a separate reality, as the Labor Department reported 200,000 (a nice round number) new American jobs in December.
However, a number of analysts - notably those from Morgan Stanley - contend that the BLS figures, which are supposedly seasonally-adjusted, may not, in fact, have been adequately adjusted, citing the huge gains in transportation, particularly in the subset of couriers and messengers (+42,000), and retail (+28,000). Also, the construction industry gains of 20,000 were due to mild weather across most of the country, so the real figure, which will be eventually revised lower, though probably not down to its actual level, is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 120,000.
Wall Street certainly wasn't buying any of it, as Thursday was mostly flat after the ADP report and Friday was a loser overall. Traders - those few remaining in the worst trading market in years - seemed more concerned about the weakening Euro and the prospects of an EU breakup prompted by any of a number of characters, from Greece to Italy, Spain, Hungary or Portugal.
So, could 2012 be a real downer for stocks? It's probably too early to tell, though there are signs from europe that nothing is fixed, which is similar to what happened in the US in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The banks were bailed out and business went on for many, almost as usual. The core issues plaguing both the US and Europe are still government-related. Huge bureaucracies spend too much money they don't have, tax rates can't get any higher and unfunded liabilities - primarily pensions and health care - continue to contribute to a growing mountain of debt.
It is too soon to tell, for sure, but no catalyst for positive gains is present or on the horizon. Earnings reports will start to trickle in beginning Monday and will become a deluge by mid-month, and that will provide some direction. Corporate profits have been solid, but 4th quarter results will be a key element moving forward.
There's a sense that solid 4th quarter results have already been priced in and any misses or near-misses will be dealt with severely. The remainder of January and early February may be a period in which companies are punished even for just meeting expectations as investors may view this time as the end of a virtuous profit cycle.
And, of course, there's always Iran, and China, and the ongoing continental problems in the European Union. Any gains will be indeed climbing a wall of real worry.
The first week of 2012 was positive, but marginally so. The Dow Industrials sported a gain of just 142 points, the S&P 500 was up 20 points, the NASDAQ gained 69 points and the NYSE Composite added 80. Volume remained at disinterested levels.
Dow 12,359.92, -55.78 (0.45%)
NASDAQ 2,674.22, +4.36 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,277.81, -3.25 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,557.68, -42.29 (0.56%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,706,200,875
NYSE Volume 3,544,665,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2524-3040
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 138-47
WTI crude oil: 101.56, -0.25
Gold: 1,616.80, -3.30
Silver: 28.68, -0.61
While this prognosis has already been proven wrong vis-a-vis the NASDAQ, which was the only major US index to finish with a gain today, he may actually have a point.
Holiday sales figures continue to trickle in, and, as expected, the optimistic gains predicted by the National Federation of Retailers (talk about having an agenda!) have been somewhat diminished. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that November-December sales were up just 3.3%, as opposed to last year's 3.8% gain and less than the NFR's rosy 4.5% prediction.
While companies such as Limited Brands, Macy's and Nordstrom showed solid gains over last year, their revenue figures may have exacted a serious toll on their profit margins and earnings. Target, Kohl's, Best Buy and J.C. Penney have already slashed their 4th quarter estimates, citing warmer-than-usual weather and a tough economy (duh!) as the main factors contributing to a slowdown in holiday sales.
Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer by number of stores and gross sales volume does not report figures on a month-by-month basis, but was expected to have had a good, though not stellar, holiday sales season.
Bloomingdale's and Macy's have already announced planned store closures as America's appetite for non-stop spending on non-essentials seems to have fallen victim to real economic pain.
Today's release of the BLS' December non-farm payroll data put credence to the idea that Thursday's ADP announcement of 325,000 net new private sector jobs in the month was - as usual - coming from a separate reality, as the Labor Department reported 200,000 (a nice round number) new American jobs in December.
However, a number of analysts - notably those from Morgan Stanley - contend that the BLS figures, which are supposedly seasonally-adjusted, may not, in fact, have been adequately adjusted, citing the huge gains in transportation, particularly in the subset of couriers and messengers (+42,000), and retail (+28,000). Also, the construction industry gains of 20,000 were due to mild weather across most of the country, so the real figure, which will be eventually revised lower, though probably not down to its actual level, is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 120,000.
Wall Street certainly wasn't buying any of it, as Thursday was mostly flat after the ADP report and Friday was a loser overall. Traders - those few remaining in the worst trading market in years - seemed more concerned about the weakening Euro and the prospects of an EU breakup prompted by any of a number of characters, from Greece to Italy, Spain, Hungary or Portugal.
So, could 2012 be a real downer for stocks? It's probably too early to tell, though there are signs from europe that nothing is fixed, which is similar to what happened in the US in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The banks were bailed out and business went on for many, almost as usual. The core issues plaguing both the US and Europe are still government-related. Huge bureaucracies spend too much money they don't have, tax rates can't get any higher and unfunded liabilities - primarily pensions and health care - continue to contribute to a growing mountain of debt.
It is too soon to tell, for sure, but no catalyst for positive gains is present or on the horizon. Earnings reports will start to trickle in beginning Monday and will become a deluge by mid-month, and that will provide some direction. Corporate profits have been solid, but 4th quarter results will be a key element moving forward.
There's a sense that solid 4th quarter results have already been priced in and any misses or near-misses will be dealt with severely. The remainder of January and early February may be a period in which companies are punished even for just meeting expectations as investors may view this time as the end of a virtuous profit cycle.
And, of course, there's always Iran, and China, and the ongoing continental problems in the European Union. Any gains will be indeed climbing a wall of real worry.
The first week of 2012 was positive, but marginally so. The Dow Industrials sported a gain of just 142 points, the S&P 500 was up 20 points, the NASDAQ gained 69 points and the NYSE Composite added 80. Volume remained at disinterested levels.
Dow 12,359.92, -55.78 (0.45%)
NASDAQ 2,674.22, +4.36 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,277.81, -3.25 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,557.68, -42.29 (0.56%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,706,200,875
NYSE Volume 3,544,665,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2524-3040
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 138-47
WTI crude oil: 101.56, -0.25
Gold: 1,616.80, -3.30
Silver: 28.68, -0.61
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