Retail Woes Subdued By Dip Buyers; Stocks Continue New Year Rally

Stocks have been on quite a tear since Christmas, a move that is strangely similar to hmmmm... last January.

How did that turn out?

Since the big downdraft of December, which culminated in a major splashdown on Christmas Eve, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P 500 have staged a rally that is remarkable if only for its vacuousness. The only reasonable rationale for the recovery rally is that stocks were down so much, they looked like bargains. Oddly enough, many of these same stocks - names like Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL) and Facebook (FB) - were being unloaded like cabbage off a produce truck just weeks ago.

These companies aren't doing any better than they were in November or December, nor is the economy. Even worse, the government shutdown, which began just before the markets bottomed, has continued, its effects so far minimized. The shutdown only affects about a quarter of "non-essential" federal operations, so it has not been a major headache for many. In a month or two, however, even if the shutdown ends soon, there will be some material and psychological damage to the economy, that's without a doubt. Plans were changed, the federal employees who were either furloughed or working without pay had problems making ends meet, and the general populace grimaced, frowned, and variously expressed disgust at the government's dysfunction.

So, the choice is whether to engage in the buying or await a better entry point, or, since stocks are up broadly in the nearly three weeks since Christmas, go short.

For now, the waiting game may be the most prudent, unless one has an economic itch that is in need of a scratch, especially since today's action saw a heavy downdraft at the open due to failures in the retail space, particularly Macy's (M) and Kohl's (KSS), both of which reported disappointing same store sales over the holidays.

Macy's was sacrificed to the tune of a 17% decline on the day, while Kohl's, down nearly 10% early, finished with a loss that was half that, thanks to the dip buyers de jour.

If this continues, all stocks will eventually be bought, at some price, regardless of fundamentals. Certainly, Macy's is now going to be seen as ripe for the plucking by somebody.

Dow Jones Industrial Average January Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
1/2/19	23,346.24	+18.78	+18.78
1/3/19	22,686.22	-660.02	-641.24
1/4/19	23,433.16	+746.94	+105.70
1/7/19	23,531.35	+98.19	+203.89
1/8/19	23,787.45	+256.10	+459.99
1/9/19	23,879.12	+91.67	+551.66
1/10/19	24,001.92	+122.80	+674.46

At the Close, Thursday, January 10, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,001.92, +122.80 (+0.51%)
NASDAQ: 6,986.07, +28.99 (+0.42%)
S&P 500: 2,596.64, +11.68 (+0.45%)
NYSE Composite: 11,839.31, +60.89 (+0.52%)

How To Deal With A Bully: Retailers Gang Up On Amazon

Wednesday, it was Macy's (M) reporting solid sales growth in the first quarter, fueling some interest in retail stocks overall.

Thursday morning, Wal-Mart is reporting 33% growth in online sales for the first quarter, proving that Americans will go where service and price are balanced, as the nation's largest retailer continues to roll out its innovative "ship-to-store" option and discounted shipping (free two-day delivery).

Amazon, the king of online retailing, may have succeeded in killing off and/or absorbing some smaller chain store retailers and accelerating the demise of dinosaurs like Sears, but they're certainly not going to mash down the biggest companies, such as Macy's, JC Penney, and Wal-Mart. While Seattle-based Amazon can build as many warehouses and fulfillment centers to facilitate faster, more efficient delivery, it is still hampered by its lack of bona fide retail locations, though its recent acquisition of Whole Foods will change that to varying degrees in different sectors and geographical locations.

Wal-Mart, which has a significant footprint in the retail food space, probably isn't worried about the emergence of Whole Foods poaching its customers, because Whole Foods is largely a near-luxury brand, selling organics and other higher-priced goods, while Wal-Mart customers are accustomed to low-priced, competitive products.

The recent resurgence of retail in the face of the Amazon effect should buoy some stocks and create an environment that will only become increasingly competitive, both online and in the real, brick-and-mortar world. As retailing evolves into 21st-century standards, don't expect first-mover Amazon to extend its gains, though its presence will certainly be dominant. Innovation by those playin catch-up with the newer technology should prove to level the playing field somewhat in coming years.

Macy's earnings beat managed to squeeze some upside out of stocks on Wednesday. Thursday's rise or fall will have much to do with Was-Mart's success story, though it may not provide enough of a catalyst to pull the entire market higher.

Dow Jones Industrial Average May Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
5/1/18	24,099.05	-64.10	-64.10
5/2/18	23,924.98	-174.07	-238.17
5/3/18	23,930.15	+5.17	-233.00
5/4/18	24,262.51	+332.36	+99.36
5/7/18	24,357.32	+94.81	+194.17
5/8/18	24,360.21	+2.89	+197.06
5/9/18	24,542.54	+182.33	+379.39
5/10/18	24,739.53	+196.99	+576.38
5/11/18	24,831.17	+91.64	+668.02
5/14/18	24,899.41	+68.24	+736.26
5/15/18	24,706.41	-193.00	+543.26
5/16/18	24,768.93	+62.52	+605.78

At the Close, Wednesday, May 16, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,768.93, +62.52 (+0.25%)
NASDAQ: 7,398.30, +46.67 (+0.63%)
S&P 500: 2,722.46, +11.01 (+0.41%)
NYSE Composite: 12,743.80, +39.17 (+0.31%)

With Non-Farm Payrolls Up Next, Dow Closes 100 Points Away From 20,000

Negative forces were at work on Thursday, keeping the Dow Jones Industrial Average below the magic 20,000 mark once again.

Prior to the market open was the ADP jobs report for December, which, in anticipation of Friday's non-farm payroll report, reported that the US added 153,000 jobs in the month, below consensus analyst estimates of roughly 170,000 jobs.

That, in addition to the ongoing turmoil in Chinese yuan was enough to start US markets off on a very tepid tone.

By late morning, the Dow had sunk to what would be the lows of the day, off by 113 points to 19,811, but the plunge was not significant and very short-lived.

Also weighing on stocks was the retail sector as Macy's and Kohl's both reported sluggish holiday sales after the bell on Wednesday. Macy's plans to close 68 stores nationwide and displace over 10,000 workers. Sears chimed in as well, announcing store closures and selling its iconic Craftsman brand to Stanley Black & Decker for $900 million.

Still flirting with the 20,000 level, the Dow stabilized close to the 19,900 level as continued optimism at the prospects of a Trump-inspired stimulus kept spirits somewhat still ebullient, though subdued.

Since mid-December, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been hanging onto gains and closing just below historic highs, though signs are evident that the rally may not have much stream remaining. Those clinging to gains from the post-election surge may be gradually trimming their positions, as stocks seem to have stalled after Christmas.

What everyone believes but is loath to admit is that stocks are not fairly valued. They are expensive and a significant decline of five to ten percent might be just what's needed to resume the climb to new records. In other words, a short-lived sell-off might present a buying opportunity. On the other hand, market participants are fearful that any decline in equity values could unleash an uneasy and still-hibernating bear.

Tomorrow's non-farm payroll report for December should be enough of a catalyst in one way or another. The wait continues...

At the close 1.5.16:
Dow: 19,899.29, -42.87 (-0.21%)
NASDAQ: 5,487.94, +10.93 (0.20%)
S&P 500: 2,269.00, -1.75 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,244.07, -2.47 (-0.02%)

S&P Rocks To Hew All-Time Highs; Oil Ramps Higher

So much for the doldrums of August.

Stocks soared to some of their highest levels ever, with the S&P 500 index closing at an all-time-high, achieving a new intra-day high (2,188.45) in the process.

There was little in the way of financial data to support the sudden spurt higher, so let it just be said that it was a decidedly rick-on session.

Macy's announced reasonably good quarterly results and pledged to close 100 stores. The stock soared by more than 17% on the day. It's getting so insane on Wall Street that even an expected earnings beat is cause for a massive uptick in share price.

S&P stocks are trading at a trailing P/E of roughly 25, approximately a 65% premium over traditional fair value.

This is truly a market only for the brave, the knave, or the naive.

Thursday's Closing Quotes:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,613.52, +117.86 (0.64%)

NASDAQ
5,228.40, +23.81 (0.46%)

S&P 500
2,185.79, +10.30 (0.47%)

NYSE Composite
10,843.10, +68.12 (0.63%)

Slaughter On Wall Street: Stocks Whacked Again As China Markets Close Early; Macy's Lays Off Thousands

Sure, the economy is just fine.

That's what the pundits on Bloomberg and CNBC would have you believe.

So, if everything is so darn good, why is Macy's - which has over 700 stores in the US - closing 40 stores and laying off 4,500 employees?

And why did the NASDAQ and the Dow close the day in correction territory (down 10% from high) today, with the S&P not far off?

People who host shows and are guests on TV want you to believe it's all China's fault. Over on mainland China, their stock markets closed early for the second time this year. That's twice in four days that circuit breakers have been triggered. A 7% selloff causes the market to shut down. Those are their rules. Or, rather, those were their rules.

Early in the US session, Chinese authorities announced that they were suspending the circuit-breaker rule, so their stock markets may fall a lot deeper tomorrow than a mere 7% before everything in the People's Republic goes down the drain.

It's not China's fault. It's the fault of the Fed, the government (for looking the other way and accepting bribes from corporations and banks), and the greed of Wall Street. It's also the fault of smart people taking their money out of the rigged casino, aka Wall Street, before it all vanishes, like it did in 2000, or 2008.

Also, Yahoo! is laying off 1000 employees as part of their reorganization plan. One employee that isn't being let go, but should, is CEO Marissa Mayer, of whom Money Daily said years ago was nothing but a wannabe, a poser, with no measurable skills for running a company.

Yes, the economy is not good, Wall Street and the government is run by a gang of crooks, and, incidentally, those highly-paid CEOs, like Ms. Mayer, should be in bread lines with the rest of the people being let go, because they're incompetent.

America, a once-great country, is going down the tubes, and in a big hurry. The culprit is not some foreign entity, terrorism, guns or aliens. The reasons can be found all over the country. Greedy lawyers, greedier bankers, corrupt government officials, incompetent business leaders, and, interwoven into the fabric of this country, placid, placated, ill-educated, preoccupied, self-engrossed people who vote (or don't) in elections and think they've done their part are all part of the problem, and not part of the solution.

But, people could be the solution. If people stopped making poor decisions, stopped listening to people in authority positions, and started taking responsibility for their own lives, rather than hoping for handouts from an uncle sugar government, people could solve their problems on their own.

The concept of self-reliance has been largely lost in America, but, herms hoping it's going to make a comeback when people wise up to the antics of politicians who don't deliver on their promises and kick them to the curb, where they belong.

There are lots of problems in this country that people could solve on their own if they took charge of their own lives. That, truthfully, may be asking for too much. We've wasted too much time in this country and waited too long for the governing class to do the right thing. Now, it may be too late, and we'll all just have to fend for ourselves.

Actually, that may not be too bad a thing.

The day on wall Street was not pretty, with major indices taking a third huge loss in four days. The Dow Industrials are down nearly 1000 points so far this year, putting 2016 already 6% in the red for even the safest stocks. Averages were lower all day, with no signs of rallies, and, perhaps more telling than anything, there was no snap-back at 3:30 on short covering, which has been the norm of late.

As noted by the quotes below, WTI crude oil finished with a 33 handle, a number not seen in the oil pits in 12 years. Gold and silver have broken out of moribund ranges, though holding and advancing from these levels may be difficult, as central banks collude to keep currency that may compete with the almighty dollar, euro or yen at undesirable levels.

What's undeniable about the gold and silver rigging is that it is unsustainable long-term, though central banks and their henchmen in the COMEX have managed to keep sending the prices of precious metals lower for nearly five full years. With stocks potentially falling out of favor, bonds, cash and PMs may appear to be the best bets with which to ride out a currency storm, a scenario that could be occurring in real time as the dollar/yen carry trade continues to unwind.

There is chaos everywhere, and, for the final trading day of the new year's first week, two important developments will be how the Chinese markets fare and US non-farm payroll data for December, due for release at 8:30 am ET.

Closing prices for Thursday, January 7, 2016
S&P 500: 1,943.09, -47.17 (2.37%)
Dow: 16,514.10, -392.41 (2.32%)
NASDAQ, 4,689.43, -146.34 (3.03%)

Crude Oil 33.21 -2.24% Gold 1,109.20 +1.58% EUR/USD 1.0929 +1.41% 10-Yr Bond 2.1530 -1.10% Corn 352.00 -0.35% Copper 2.02 -3.16% Silver 14.32 +2.50% Natural Gas 2.37 +4.46% Russell 2000 1,064.57 -2.72% VIX 24.99 +21.37% BATS 1000 20,761.26 -2.29% GBP/USD 1.4618 -0.05% USD/JPY 117.5480 -0.80%
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Stocks Finish First Week of 2012 in Mixed Fashion, Though Higher for Week

Yesterday, a commenter on a popular blog site made the bold statement that we may have already seen the highs for the year - meaning 2012, just three trading days into the new year.

While this prognosis has already been proven wrong vis-a-vis the NASDAQ, which was the only major US index to finish with a gain today, he may actually have a point.

Holiday sales figures continue to trickle in, and, as expected, the optimistic gains predicted by the National Federation of Retailers (talk about having an agenda!) have been somewhat diminished. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that November-December sales were up just 3.3%, as opposed to last year's 3.8% gain and less than the NFR's rosy 4.5% prediction.

While companies such as Limited Brands, Macy's and Nordstrom showed solid gains over last year, their revenue figures may have exacted a serious toll on their profit margins and earnings. Target, Kohl's, Best Buy and J.C. Penney have already slashed their 4th quarter estimates, citing warmer-than-usual weather and a tough economy (duh!) as the main factors contributing to a slowdown in holiday sales.

Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer by number of stores and gross sales volume does not report figures on a month-by-month basis, but was expected to have had a good, though not stellar, holiday sales season.

Bloomingdale's and Macy's have already announced planned store closures as America's appetite for non-stop spending on non-essentials seems to have fallen victim to real economic pain.

Today's release of the BLS' December non-farm payroll data put credence to the idea that Thursday's ADP announcement of 325,000 net new private sector jobs in the month was - as usual - coming from a separate reality, as the Labor Department reported 200,000 (a nice round number) new American jobs in December.

However, a number of analysts - notably those from Morgan Stanley - contend that the BLS figures, which are supposedly seasonally-adjusted, may not, in fact, have been adequately adjusted, citing the huge gains in transportation, particularly in the subset of couriers and messengers (+42,000), and retail (+28,000). Also, the construction industry gains of 20,000 were due to mild weather across most of the country, so the real figure, which will be eventually revised lower, though probably not down to its actual level, is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 120,000.

Wall Street certainly wasn't buying any of it, as Thursday was mostly flat after the ADP report and Friday was a loser overall. Traders - those few remaining in the worst trading market in years - seemed more concerned about the weakening Euro and the prospects of an EU breakup prompted by any of a number of characters, from Greece to Italy, Spain, Hungary or Portugal.

So, could 2012 be a real downer for stocks? It's probably too early to tell, though there are signs from europe that nothing is fixed, which is similar to what happened in the US in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. The banks were bailed out and business went on for many, almost as usual. The core issues plaguing both the US and Europe are still government-related. Huge bureaucracies spend too much money they don't have, tax rates can't get any higher and unfunded liabilities - primarily pensions and health care - continue to contribute to a growing mountain of debt.

It is too soon to tell, for sure, but no catalyst for positive gains is present or on the horizon. Earnings reports will start to trickle in beginning Monday and will become a deluge by mid-month, and that will provide some direction. Corporate profits have been solid, but 4th quarter results will be a key element moving forward.

There's a sense that solid 4th quarter results have already been priced in and any misses or near-misses will be dealt with severely. The remainder of January and early February may be a period in which companies are punished even for just meeting expectations as investors may view this time as the end of a virtuous profit cycle.

And, of course, there's always Iran, and China, and the ongoing continental problems in the European Union. Any gains will be indeed climbing a wall of real worry.

The first week of 2012 was positive, but marginally so. The Dow Industrials sported a gain of just 142 points, the S&P 500 was up 20 points, the NASDAQ gained 69 points and the NYSE Composite added 80. Volume remained at disinterested levels.

Dow 12,359.92, -55.78 (0.45%)
NASDAQ 2,674.22, +4.36 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,277.81, -3.25 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,557.68, -42.29 (0.56%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,706,200,875
NYSE Volume 3,544,665,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2524-3040
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 138-47
WTI crude oil: 101.56, -0.25
Gold: 1,616.80, -3.30
Silver: 28.68, -0.61