When rallies are built on nothing but hope and hype, i.e., pre-market futures - which were up outlandishly this morning - the end result is usually something along the lines of what happened today.
For the Dow, it meant, by the close, giving back nearly half the gains it had built by midday. For the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, the results were worse, being that Apple (AAPL) was whacked again today, losing another 2.5% on top of sizable losses earlier this week.
The NASDAQ gave up all of its gains and then some, finishing in the red, while the S&P gained just over a point-and-a-half by day's end.
There was nothing pushing this rally besides the absence of any kind of news, which, in current Wall Street parlance, is meant to be good news. Any hint of further malaise in Europe or on the US housing or employment fronts - which had already been well-disseminated earlier this week - would have sent stocks screaming for mercy into the weekend.
As such, nothing other than a few earnings reports were just barely enough to keep the stock wizards occupied, though the same classic bear market chart pattern as on Thursday emerged: up in the morning with a sell-off the remainder of the day.
Dow 13,029.26, +65.16 (0.50%)
NASDAQ 3,000.45, -7.11 (0.24%)
S&P 500 1,378.53, +1.61 (0.12%)
NYSE Composite 8,025.44, +29.52 (0.37%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,892,790,000
NYSE Volume 3,799,865,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3535-2076
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 182-60
WTI crude oil: 103.05, +0.78
Gold: 1,642.80, +1.40
Silver: 31.65, -0.13
Friday, April 20, 2012
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Early Earnings Euphoria Turns to Tears as Economic Data Disappoints
In the most classic of all classic bear market chart moves, the major indices took the ball that was handed to them by the like of Bank of America (BAC) and DuPont (DD), both of which reported 1st quarter earnings before the bell, opening to the upside, though without much conviction as the 380,000 initial unemployment claims hung over the markets like the Sword of Damocles.
Sporting gains by the 10:00 hour, the next set of economic data included the index of leading indicators from the shills at the Conference Board posting a gain of 0.3%, the Philadelphia Fed index showing a number of 8.3 when the expectations were for 12.0 and existing home sales - the real killer number - sporting a 2% decline from 4.60M in February to 48.8 in March.
Adding to the housing debacle is the fact that the numbers are woefully behind the times and generally a best-guess situation, indicating that April's figures, which will be released about this time in May, will be off the mark as well.
With those key economic data points in hand, the markets began to turn south and continued to do so until reaching the lows of the day before 3:00, though, of course, no Ponzi-scheme market would be complete without the requisite end-of-session tape painting that chopped off about 40% of the losses.
Still, it was an ugly chapter for a market struggling to find any kind of positive momentum. Those who based their hopes on bank earnings from BofA were sorely disappointed to find that the nation's most hated banking entity (though JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup are running close behind) produced a quarterly earnings report that more resembled a work of fiction rather than a well-reasoned, accurate accounting of their financial position.
Since 2008 - and probably even before then - all bank earning statements from the big five have been wholly fraudulent, based on assumptions like mark to model and other accounting gimmicks designed only to obfuscate the truth. Bank of America does't really make money any more than a dead person inhales oxygen, and the metaphor is appropriate, since BofA is technically a dead bank walking.
So, on a day in which the pundits and cheerleaders were looking for positives in corporate earnings, they got egg on their collective faces from the economy, which, after all, is the real harbinger of good or ill tidings. Continued high unemployment and a crippled housing market added to burgeoning government debt does not paint a very pretty picture, though Wall Street likes to view these things though rose-colored glasses.
Eventually, reality strikes home and the only option is to hit the sell button. Notably, today's volume was much higher than what has been the norm, not a good sign for any bulls still holding corporate shares.
Dow 12,964.10, -68.65 (0.53%)
NASDAQ 3,007.56, -23.89 (0.79%)
S&P 500 1,376.92, -8.22 (0.59%)
NYSE Composite 7,995.94, -34.43 (0.43%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,965,208,125
NYSE Volume 4,138,306,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2162-3363
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 134-91
WTI crude oil: 102.27, -0.40
Gold: 1,641.40, +1.80
Silver: 31.78, +0.29
Sporting gains by the 10:00 hour, the next set of economic data included the index of leading indicators from the shills at the Conference Board posting a gain of 0.3%, the Philadelphia Fed index showing a number of 8.3 when the expectations were for 12.0 and existing home sales - the real killer number - sporting a 2% decline from 4.60M in February to 48.8 in March.
Adding to the housing debacle is the fact that the numbers are woefully behind the times and generally a best-guess situation, indicating that April's figures, which will be released about this time in May, will be off the mark as well.
With those key economic data points in hand, the markets began to turn south and continued to do so until reaching the lows of the day before 3:00, though, of course, no Ponzi-scheme market would be complete without the requisite end-of-session tape painting that chopped off about 40% of the losses.
Still, it was an ugly chapter for a market struggling to find any kind of positive momentum. Those who based their hopes on bank earnings from BofA were sorely disappointed to find that the nation's most hated banking entity (though JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup are running close behind) produced a quarterly earnings report that more resembled a work of fiction rather than a well-reasoned, accurate accounting of their financial position.
Since 2008 - and probably even before then - all bank earning statements from the big five have been wholly fraudulent, based on assumptions like mark to model and other accounting gimmicks designed only to obfuscate the truth. Bank of America does't really make money any more than a dead person inhales oxygen, and the metaphor is appropriate, since BofA is technically a dead bank walking.
So, on a day in which the pundits and cheerleaders were looking for positives in corporate earnings, they got egg on their collective faces from the economy, which, after all, is the real harbinger of good or ill tidings. Continued high unemployment and a crippled housing market added to burgeoning government debt does not paint a very pretty picture, though Wall Street likes to view these things though rose-colored glasses.
Eventually, reality strikes home and the only option is to hit the sell button. Notably, today's volume was much higher than what has been the norm, not a good sign for any bulls still holding corporate shares.
Dow 12,964.10, -68.65 (0.53%)
NASDAQ 3,007.56, -23.89 (0.79%)
S&P 500 1,376.92, -8.22 (0.59%)
NYSE Composite 7,995.94, -34.43 (0.43%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,965,208,125
NYSE Volume 4,138,306,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2162-3363
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 134-91
WTI crude oil: 102.27, -0.40
Gold: 1,641.40, +1.80
Silver: 31.78, +0.29
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Volatility Returns; Oil Price Dips; Spanish Bond Auctions on Economic Radar
Yesterday's vapor rally was actually all about options expiration, it turns out, because as quickly as the control freak rats running Wall Street's biggest brokerages went piling in, they scrambled back out today, leaving the momentum stocks stuck in lifeless atrophy, hollowed out dead carcasses once the meat was taken from their bones.
Until such a time that the criminal element that brought us the financial collapse of 2008 is rounded up and summarily dismissed - which will likely never happen - expect more events such as the past two days to become more of the norm than the exception. Wall Street is a slimy, cheater's paradise where skimming a few decimal points worth of profit makes one a hero in a market that makes about as much sense - from a fundamental basis - as the dribbling rant of an imbecile.
The problem is that while imbeciles are generally disregarded and institutionalized, the leaders of the Wall Street horde are treated like rock stars in the financial realm, supposedly blessed with infinite knowledge of markets, economics and business, when in fact they are no better than underworld goons adept only at making the best of a rigged game.
There really is no sense investing in stocks, though some savvy players may be able - for a time - to make some money day-trading or playing the options game. The odds for the individual investor are stacked heavily against them and in favor of the controlling crowd that is the brutish Wall Street gang, who controls the direction of trades via futures manipulation, high frequency trading (HFT) and nearly unlimited amounts of money.
One might be inclined to take some pleasure in seeing the price of oil drop today in hopes that retail gas prices would soon follow, though it's likely only temporary and a hedged-out ploy at best, a cynical trade on the hopes and dreams of the average consumer that is just as likely to turn back up tomorrow as continue its decline.
Everything related to stocks, commodities and currencies is completely manipulated, if not by the bankers and brokerages, then by the central banks, and false. Still, we play along, hoping that some day, something will change the status quo and markets will once again be recognizable. It's a fruitless hope for most, as those in control will stay in control whether the markets go up, down or sideways.
The real shame is the fate of millions of Americans and citizens of other developed nations who have put their faith and money into such a sham of leadership, which shows almost daily its contempt for morality and principled investing and governance. A day of reckoning may come, but those worst affected will be the ill-informed general public which has dutifully played in the sandbox of the elitists.
Tomorrow's fiasco de jour will focus on long-dated Spanish bond auctions and the usual nonsense that is the weekly unemployment claims figure.
Dow 13,032.75 82.79 (0.63%)
NASDAQ 3,031.45 11.37 (0.37%)
S&P 500 1,385.14 5.64 (0.41%)
NYSE Compos... 8,030.39 33.69 (0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume... 1,573,320,125.00
NYSE Volume 3,436,646,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1759-3788
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 105-92
WTI crude oil: 102.67, -1.53
Gold: 1,639.60, -11.50
Silver: 31.49, -0.19
Until such a time that the criminal element that brought us the financial collapse of 2008 is rounded up and summarily dismissed - which will likely never happen - expect more events such as the past two days to become more of the norm than the exception. Wall Street is a slimy, cheater's paradise where skimming a few decimal points worth of profit makes one a hero in a market that makes about as much sense - from a fundamental basis - as the dribbling rant of an imbecile.
The problem is that while imbeciles are generally disregarded and institutionalized, the leaders of the Wall Street horde are treated like rock stars in the financial realm, supposedly blessed with infinite knowledge of markets, economics and business, when in fact they are no better than underworld goons adept only at making the best of a rigged game.
There really is no sense investing in stocks, though some savvy players may be able - for a time - to make some money day-trading or playing the options game. The odds for the individual investor are stacked heavily against them and in favor of the controlling crowd that is the brutish Wall Street gang, who controls the direction of trades via futures manipulation, high frequency trading (HFT) and nearly unlimited amounts of money.
One might be inclined to take some pleasure in seeing the price of oil drop today in hopes that retail gas prices would soon follow, though it's likely only temporary and a hedged-out ploy at best, a cynical trade on the hopes and dreams of the average consumer that is just as likely to turn back up tomorrow as continue its decline.
Everything related to stocks, commodities and currencies is completely manipulated, if not by the bankers and brokerages, then by the central banks, and false. Still, we play along, hoping that some day, something will change the status quo and markets will once again be recognizable. It's a fruitless hope for most, as those in control will stay in control whether the markets go up, down or sideways.
The real shame is the fate of millions of Americans and citizens of other developed nations who have put their faith and money into such a sham of leadership, which shows almost daily its contempt for morality and principled investing and governance. A day of reckoning may come, but those worst affected will be the ill-informed general public which has dutifully played in the sandbox of the elitists.
Tomorrow's fiasco de jour will focus on long-dated Spanish bond auctions and the usual nonsense that is the weekly unemployment claims figure.
Dow 13,032.75 82.79 (0.63%)
NASDAQ 3,031.45 11.37 (0.37%)
S&P 500 1,385.14 5.64 (0.41%)
NYSE Compos... 8,030.39 33.69 (0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume... 1,573,320,125.00
NYSE Volume 3,436,646,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1759-3788
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 105-92
WTI crude oil: 102.67, -1.53
Gold: 1,639.60, -11.50
Silver: 31.49, -0.19
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
On Tax Return Day, Wall Street Rocks Home a Winner
Apparently, the people (or machines) that trade on Wall Street have already done their taxes and owe nothing to the government, because a lot of cash went to work today, bidding up stocks closer to 3 1/2 year highs.
Although volume was light, that's become the new normal, so unless today's monster move was nothing more than bidding up prices in advance of options expiry, US businesses look to be in outstanding shape.
Earnings thus far for the first quarter have been better than expected for the most part, and, better yet, there haven't been any nasty developments or dissonant noise from Europe.
The questions surrounding recent moves in stocks are various and diverse. Are we extending the three-year-plus bull market or is this simply misplaced euphoria? Will fiscal policy of high deficits sink the economy or have the Fed's incessant money printing fostered a global boom? No matter which way one turns on those issues, one thing is clear: there's a magnificent absence of fear in the market right now.
The numbers speak for themselves:
Dow 13,115.54, +194.13 (1.50%)
NASDAQ 3,042.82, +54.42 (1.82%)
S&P 500 1,390.78, +21.21 (1.55%)
NYSE Composite 8,064.04, +114.47 (1.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,554,113,625
NYSE Volume 3,429,126,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4340-1306
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 158-41
WTI crude oil: 104.20, +1.27
Gold: 1,651.10, +1.40
Silver: 31.68, +0.01
Although volume was light, that's become the new normal, so unless today's monster move was nothing more than bidding up prices in advance of options expiry, US businesses look to be in outstanding shape.
Earnings thus far for the first quarter have been better than expected for the most part, and, better yet, there haven't been any nasty developments or dissonant noise from Europe.
The questions surrounding recent moves in stocks are various and diverse. Are we extending the three-year-plus bull market or is this simply misplaced euphoria? Will fiscal policy of high deficits sink the economy or have the Fed's incessant money printing fostered a global boom? No matter which way one turns on those issues, one thing is clear: there's a magnificent absence of fear in the market right now.
The numbers speak for themselves:
Dow 13,115.54, +194.13 (1.50%)
NASDAQ 3,042.82, +54.42 (1.82%)
S&P 500 1,390.78, +21.21 (1.55%)
NYSE Composite 8,064.04, +114.47 (1.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,554,113,625
NYSE Volume 3,429,126,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4340-1306
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 158-41
WTI crude oil: 104.20, +1.27
Gold: 1,651.10, +1.40
Silver: 31.68, +0.01
Monday, April 16, 2012
Apple Bifurcates Markets on Big Sell-off; Spain, Housing in Focus
Before getting to why the major indices were all over the map today, a couple of key economic data points:
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell for the first time in seven months, from 28 in March to 25 in April. A figure of 50 is considered "break even" wherein more builders are more confident. Obviously, this latest dip leasves new hoe builders nowhere close.
Regionally, the Northeast posted a four-point gain to 29 (its highest level since May of 2010), the West saw no change at 32, the South declined three poins to 24 and the Midwest was the weakest, posting an eight-point decline to 23.
With new home sales on tap for tomorrow, housing appears to be as weak as it ever has.
Retail sales for March posted an unexpected 0.8% gain on expectations of just a 0.3% rise, somewhat of a surprise considering high fuel costs and other issues facing consumers (no jobs, no homes, high debt, etc.).
On the downside, the Empire Manufacturing Index nose-dived from 20.21 in March to 6.56 in April. The collected wisdom of forecasters expected a decline - to 17.6. New orders and shipments were down, while the employment situation was mixed with more jobs, but for shorter durations.
Taken together, these data sets reveal a US economy that is crawling along and possibly sputtering to stall speed.
Investors in Apple (AAPL) took some long-overdue profits on Monday, sending the world's largest company by market cap down 25.10 points (4.15%), to close at 580.13, the worst decline for Apple in more than six months. Investors were buoyed by a 45% gain in the company stock since October, however.
The weight of Apple on the various indices was obvious, with the NASDAQ the most severely affected, the S&P less so. Meanwhile, the Dow registered a strong showing, with 24 of the 30 components sporting gains, led by Travelers (TRV), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Wal-Mart (WMT) and DuPont (DD).
Otherwise, it was a straightforward session, with much of the focus centered on Spain's 10-year note, which spiked back above 6% on the day and sent bond holders scrambling for the safety of the German Bund, which is nearing historic lows. The pressure on Spain's funding continues to fuel speculation that the country will need a Greek-style bailout soon.
Dow 12,921.41, +71.82 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,988.40, -22.93 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,369.57, -0.69 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,949.57, +18.47 (0.23%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,566,279,375
NYSE Volume 3,444,850,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3083-2500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-106
WTI crude oil: 102.93, +0.10
Gold: 1,649.70, -10.50
Silver: 31.37, -0.02
The NAHB Housing Market Index fell for the first time in seven months, from 28 in March to 25 in April. A figure of 50 is considered "break even" wherein more builders are more confident. Obviously, this latest dip leasves new hoe builders nowhere close.
Regionally, the Northeast posted a four-point gain to 29 (its highest level since May of 2010), the West saw no change at 32, the South declined three poins to 24 and the Midwest was the weakest, posting an eight-point decline to 23.
With new home sales on tap for tomorrow, housing appears to be as weak as it ever has.
Retail sales for March posted an unexpected 0.8% gain on expectations of just a 0.3% rise, somewhat of a surprise considering high fuel costs and other issues facing consumers (no jobs, no homes, high debt, etc.).
On the downside, the Empire Manufacturing Index nose-dived from 20.21 in March to 6.56 in April. The collected wisdom of forecasters expected a decline - to 17.6. New orders and shipments were down, while the employment situation was mixed with more jobs, but for shorter durations.
Taken together, these data sets reveal a US economy that is crawling along and possibly sputtering to stall speed.
Investors in Apple (AAPL) took some long-overdue profits on Monday, sending the world's largest company by market cap down 25.10 points (4.15%), to close at 580.13, the worst decline for Apple in more than six months. Investors were buoyed by a 45% gain in the company stock since October, however.
The weight of Apple on the various indices was obvious, with the NASDAQ the most severely affected, the S&P less so. Meanwhile, the Dow registered a strong showing, with 24 of the 30 components sporting gains, led by Travelers (TRV), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Wal-Mart (WMT) and DuPont (DD).
Otherwise, it was a straightforward session, with much of the focus centered on Spain's 10-year note, which spiked back above 6% on the day and sent bond holders scrambling for the safety of the German Bund, which is nearing historic lows. The pressure on Spain's funding continues to fuel speculation that the country will need a Greek-style bailout soon.
Dow 12,921.41, +71.82 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,988.40, -22.93 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,369.57, -0.69 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,949.57, +18.47 (0.23%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,566,279,375
NYSE Volume 3,444,850,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3083-2500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-106
WTI crude oil: 102.93, +0.10
Gold: 1,649.70, -10.50
Silver: 31.37, -0.02
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