Showing posts with label Empire Manufacturing Index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Empire Manufacturing Index. Show all posts

Monday, May 16, 2016

Sideways Trade Continues As Markets Respond - Like Magic - To Nothing

There was absolutely nothing upon which to base trades upon today, other than the concept that on Friday the Dow fell to the low end of the recent range (i.e., 17,500-18,000).

Therefore, it was incumbent upon market participants - meaning the Fed and their agents, particularly, Citadel - to boost asset prices to a more reasonable level in terms of keeping the charade going.

If there was any news at all that would have affected equities, it was the Empire Manufacturing Index falling nineteen points from April to -9.0 for the May reading. It's obvious that business conditions in Andrew Cuomo's fairy-tale land of the $15 minimum wage are horrible. one only has to visit upstate New York communities such as Rochester, Syracuse or Buffalo to understand the depth of despair in the business community.

Nonetheless, Wall Street is disturbingly disconnected from the reality of Main Street America and even further removed from their upstate brethren.

Carry on.

Bad Joke of the Day: Recovery!
S&P 500: 2,066.66, +20.05 (0.98%)
Dow: 17,710.71, +175.39 (1.00%)
NASDAQ: 4,775.46, +57.78 (1.22%)

Crude Oil 47.86 +0.29% Gold 1,276.70 +0.20% EUR/USD 1.1316 -0.02% 10-Yr Bond 1.7530 +2.82% Corn 392.50 -0.38% Copper 2.09 +0.17% Silver 17.21 +0.33% Natural Gas 2.04 +0.44% Russell 2000 1,116.21 +1.25% VIX 14.68 -2.39% BATS 1000 20,677.17 0.00% GBP/USD 1.4419 +0.08% USD/JPY 109.05 -0.0046%

Monday, September 16, 2013

Larry Summers Departs Fed Chairmanship Sweepstakes; Markets Jubilant

You'd never think that a man turning down chairmanship of the Federal Reserve could be such a positive development, but that's exactly what sent stocks soaring today, as Larry Summers announced - in a letter to the president - that he was withdrawing his name for consideration.

It's actually another bit of pretzel logic at play, because while Mr. Summers is the ultimate insider, some folks on the inside also thought he is a hawkish sort in terms of economic policy (how misguided!), and would be likely to pull back QE quicker than most other nominees to succeed chairman Ben Bernanke.

Thus, with fear of the economic spigot being turned off being muted by his withdrawal from consideration, for now, at least, the punchbowl that the Fed so lavishly entertains its Wall Street patrons has been kept in placed and fully spiked.

That, and a severe lack of volume (again, old story), led stocks to gallop out of the gate on Monday, drifting a bit to the downside in the afternoon, with the NASDAQ being pulled down by Apple (AAPL), whose shine has lost much of its luster since the untimely death of founder Steve Jobs. Apple is no longer innovative, forward-thinking or focused on individuality; it is becoming just another greedy corporate factory, outsourcing jobs to China while reaping huge profits here in the USA. The best days of Apple as a company are long past.

Otherwise, the shootings in Washington, DC, did little to stem the orderly flow, though one might be somewhat suspect of the rally continuing, with a FOMC announcement on Wednesday and economic data floundering.

The Empire Manufacturing Index (New York) fell to 6.3 for September after posting a downwardly-revised 8.2 in August, and industrial production missed expectations for the fifth straight month, registering a flaccid increase of jut 0.4%, though even that ws better than the July reading of 0.0%. August Capacity Utilization remained fairly stagnant at 77.8%. It was 77.6% in July.

With Summers and Syria off the front pages, the market can now go back to handicapping the size of the Fed taper to be announced on Wednesday; most estimates are for the Fed to reduce bond purchases by $10 billion a month, mostly in treasuries. They have little choice but to taper, as they are gobbling up more than a third of all issuance by Treasury, and, despite rumors to the contrary, the US Treasury cannot continue borrowing ad infinitum.

Well, maybe not. Infinity is, actually, a long way off.

Dow 15,494.78, -118.72 (0.77%)
Nasdaq 3,717.85, -4.34 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,697.60, +9.61 (0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 2.87%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,344,441,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,476,599,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4173-2429
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 430-38 (imbalance)
WTI crude oil: 106.59, -1.62
Gold: 1,317.80, +9.20
Silver: 22.01, +0.289

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Stocks Rocket Higher as Government Begins Falling Apart; Warp Speed, Bennie!

OK, here are some facts and figures.

The White House is embroiled in three separate scandals (Benghazi, IRS, AP wiretaps), any one of which could be cause for impeachment (which is the preferred action, right now).

Attorney General Eric (Worthless) Holder testified and was grilled by congressmen before the House Judiciary Committee on a variety of issues, not the least of which were questions surrounding the wiretapping of AP reporters and editors. Holder, a typical administration slime-ball, who has prosecuted exactly zero criminal bankers, has recused himself from the AP investigation. How convenient!

The PPI for April was a massive misfire, signaling deflation in the face of the Fed's relentless, non-stop money printing. Expectations were for a reading of -0.5, which in itself would be anti-inflationary enough - and in direct opposition to the wishes of the Fed - but the number came in at a depressing -0.7.

Empire State Manufacturing was supposed to improve from a depression-era-level of 3.1 in April to 3.5 in May, but, surprise, manufacturing contracted in the New York region, dropping to -1.4.

April Industrial Production was off 0.5% and Capacity Utilization fell from 78.3 to 77.8%.

That's three scandals, each with its very own investigation about to be launched and four misses on economic data out of four. It's like a baseball hitter on steroids striking out four times and making three errors in the field. Not very impressive.

So, how do equity markets continue to march higher?

If anyone has answers please call 1-800-LUV-FRAUD, 1-866-2-WEIRD or 1-877-I-RIGGED.

A computer algorithm will answer your call and assimilate your responses, after which they will be discarded.

Thank you.

Dow 15,275.69, +60.44 (0.40%)
Nasdaq 3,471.62, +9.01 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,658.78, +8.44 (0.51%)
NYSE Composite 9,551.32, +35.47(0.37%)
NYSE Volume 3,946,509,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,786,600,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3592-2883
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 806-41 (!!!!!!)
WTI crude oil: 94.30, +0.09
Gold: 1,396.20, -28.30
Silver: 22.66, -0.721

Monday, December 17, 2012

Magic Market Melt-up

Cliff? What cliff?


Oh, that one.

Empire Manufacturing (Dec.) Actual: -8.1; Forecast: 2.0.

Who needs reasons?

Dow 13,235.39, +100.38(0.76%)
NASDAQ 3,010.60, +39.27(1.32%)
S&P 500 1,430.36, +16.78(1.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,407.02, +73.29(0.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,997,750.00
NYSE Volume 3,415,913,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3776-1782
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 132-61
WTI crude oil: 87.20, +0.47
Gold: 1,698.20, +1.20
Silver: 32.28, -0.019

Monday, September 17, 2012

Markets Close Down 15th Monday Out of Last 16

Despite the aggressive easing action by the Fed last week, today's session was marked by broad-based selling on low volume, the 15th consecutive Monday of the last 16 in which the markets turned lower for the day.

It is one of the odder trends in the markets these days, but is most likely tied to HFTs and the macro-analysis upon which markets currently depend. There was once a time in which everything didn't fall or rise in unison, perfectly predictable, dependent upon headlines, but that has been the regime - for the most part - since the financial crisis of 2008. Nothing's been repaired and market participants merely follow the herd, which, truth be told, has been a most profitable trade since March 2009, with stocks close to all-time or multi year highs.

Another oddity carried forth today was how the NYSE Composite took on roughly twice the water than the other indices, on a percentage basis. Apple (AAPL) kept the NASDAQ and S&P at relatively minimal losses, while the Dow Industrials were boosted by consumer stocks (Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonald's (MCD)), big phrama names, Merck (MRK) and Phizer (PFE), all of which bucked the trend and closed on the upside.

All of the major indices finished well off their lows, with a short-covering spike sending all off what were the lows of the day, in the final hour of trading.

There was little in the way of economic data - as if the markets would have cared anyway - except New York's Empire Manufacturing Index, which fell to -10.4, its lowest level since November, 2010. It followed the recent trend of other Fed regional indices, sporting sub-par results. With that in mind, it's little wonder that the Fed decided last week to go all in on what some are calling QE-infinity.

Financial markets are a complete farce now, and have been pretty much since the 2008 crash. The Federal Reserve's insistence to sop up the remains of old and recently-issued MBS truly points up the dilemma faced by central banks and sovereign government entities.

With the Fed becoming the world's largest landlord-by-proxy, the rally cry of "free houses for everyone!" has taken on new and even more cynical meaning.

In a move that can only be captioned by the phrase, "well, it's about time," crude oil skidded more than $3.00 before recovering slightly.

Dow 13,553.10, -40.27 (0.30%)
NASDAQ 3,178.67, -8.46 (0.27%)
S&P 500 1,461.19, -4.58 (0.31%)
NYSE Composite 8,408.92, -49.96 (0.59%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,428,619,250
NYSE Volume 3,135,453,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1883-3624
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 228-26
WTI crude oil: 96.62, -2.38
Gold: 1,770.60, -2.10
Silver: 34.37, -0.29

Monday, April 16, 2012

Apple Bifurcates Markets on Big Sell-off; Spain, Housing in Focus

Before getting to why the major indices were all over the map today, a couple of key economic data points:

The NAHB Housing Market Index fell for the first time in seven months, from 28 in March to 25 in April. A figure of 50 is considered "break even" wherein more builders are more confident. Obviously, this latest dip leasves new hoe builders nowhere close.

Regionally, the Northeast posted a four-point gain to 29 (its highest level since May of 2010), the West saw no change at 32, the South declined three poins to 24 and the Midwest was the weakest, posting an eight-point decline to 23.

With new home sales on tap for tomorrow, housing appears to be as weak as it ever has.

Retail sales for March posted an unexpected 0.8% gain on expectations of just a 0.3% rise, somewhat of a surprise considering high fuel costs and other issues facing consumers (no jobs, no homes, high debt, etc.).

On the downside, the Empire Manufacturing Index nose-dived from 20.21 in March to 6.56 in April. The collected wisdom of forecasters expected a decline - to 17.6. New orders and shipments were down, while the employment situation was mixed with more jobs, but for shorter durations.

Taken together, these data sets reveal a US economy that is crawling along and possibly sputtering to stall speed.

Investors in Apple (AAPL) took some long-overdue profits on Monday, sending the world's largest company by market cap down 25.10 points (4.15%), to close at 580.13, the worst decline for Apple in more than six months. Investors were buoyed by a 45% gain in the company stock since October, however.

The weight of Apple on the various indices was obvious, with the NASDAQ the most severely affected, the S&P less so. Meanwhile, the Dow registered a strong showing, with 24 of the 30 components sporting gains, led by Travelers (TRV), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Wal-Mart (WMT) and DuPont (DD).

Otherwise, it was a straightforward session, with much of the focus centered on Spain's 10-year note, which spiked back above 6% on the day and sent bond holders scrambling for the safety of the German Bund, which is nearing historic lows. The pressure on Spain's funding continues to fuel speculation that the country will need a Greek-style bailout soon.

Dow 12,921.41, +71.82 (0.56%)
NASDAQ 2,988.40, -22.93 (0.76%)
S&P 500 1,369.57, -0.69 (0.05%)
NYSE Composite 7,949.57, +18.47 (0.23%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,566,279,375
NYSE Volume 3,444,850,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3083-2500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 109-106
WTI crude oil: 102.93, +0.10
Gold: 1,649.70, -10.50
Silver: 31.37, -0.02