Rick Santelli, one of the very few talking heads on CNBC who delivers honesty more often than not, said this morning that ignoring Europe is usually a big mistake.
Apparently, some of the computers and traders were taking notes, because today's highly-anticipated relief rally delivered less relief than angst to a market that seemingly wants to go nowhere but lower.
Stocks traded higher through most of the session, but, in classic bear market fashion, gave up their gains late in the day. While there was little more than whispers from across the Atlantic, the tone was dire, with Greece and now, Spain, topping the list of countries seeking to escape the clutches of an intractable currency clutch.
The general gist of the the thinking is that when - no longer "if" - Greece departs from the 17 nations who use the Euro as a common currency, Spain will likely follow, and then the others fall like dominoes: Italy, Portugal, Belgium, Ireland, in a disordered departure from a failed fiat folly.
It is testament to the frailty of centralized government planning that the Euro experiment will have lasted less than 20 years before the nations of Europe finally bite the nationalist bullet and return to their various sovereign currencies, like the lira, drachma, peseta, and various forms of francs, et. al. Current analysis has Greece departing within a year, followed in quick order by at least five other nations.
There will be opposition, and the usual courses of anxiety and cries of imminent depression, but, as it has in the past, Europe will return to nationalism, as quaint as that may be, and independence from an additional layer of government it never needed in the first place. Time will tell how it all turns out, though the final result is probably going to be a better condition for everyone from where things stand today.
Dow 12,855.04, +19.98 (0.16%)
NASDAQ 2,933.64, -1.07 (0.04%)
S&P 500 1,357.99, +3.41 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite 7,852.72, +32.46 (0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,915,262,500
NYSE Volume 3,598,696,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3398-2161
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 139-73
WTI crude oil: 97.08. +0.27
Gold: 1,595.50, +1.30
Silver: 29.18, -0.06
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Stocks Exhibiting Serious Weakness as Correction Completes Day Six
For the fourth straight day, US markets exhibited the same trading pattern on the major indices: A plunge at the open and the rest of the day spent trundling back higher. This is the effect of an overabundance of trading algos all programmed to begin buying at certain levels. Fully 85% or more of all trades are handled by machines, drwing into question the overall wisdom of a market built on lies, false assumptions, sketchy models and the overwhelming directive that stocks MUST go higher, all the time, no matter the news or events in the real world.
In any case, it's made it easier for real, human investors to get the heck out of dodge, and it's likely that a good portion of the really smart money has already exited. This is apparent from the price of bonds, which have been in rally mode all week, pushing yields near historic lows.
The cause for all of the latest market turmoil is no big surprise; it is Europe, specifically Greece, but peripherally Spain and France, which seem the two most likely targets for increased political volatility, and thus, stock declines.
The Greeks have the world by the proverbial short hairs at the moment. At any given time, the EU, ECB, IMF or any of the nearly nations could tell the the government of Greece that it's game over, or that they'll loan them money anyway, which is exactly what happened today.
It was reported that the Greek government, even if it received the latest round of bailout money, could not meet it's obligations, so, one has to wonder, why bother? That's the line of the hard left parties in Greece at the moment. They don't want any more IMF or ECB bailout funds, preferring to go it alone, presumably to leave the Euro as a currency behind and take back up the drachma as its national money.
Of course, all of this uncertainty has a negative effect on stocks, though US markets have suffered much less than their European counterparts, some of which have already fallen into bear market territories, along with China, which has been in the grip of the bear for the past two years, but that's another story, and something that is also worrying the gloablists and their plans to control world commerce.
There is a problem with the US markets and their repeating pattern of falls and rises. The intra-day plunges keep getting deeper and deeper, setting new support levels which will, over time, be proven to have about all the holding power of a paper towel in a hurricane. Eventually, the computers will either be turned off or reprogrammed and the flush of stocks down the drain will be swift and complete. Even as it stands, stocks are off sharply over the past six sessions, with the Dow down all six, and the S&P and NASDAQ down five of six, the only positive returns for the duo being extremely marginal gains on Monday - a point on the NASDAQ, less than that (0.48) on the S&P.
Tomorrow, the drama continues, with the US throwing in with initial unemployment claims, a number that may be secondary to the uneasiness in Europe, but should provide a secondary betting point for the open. Stay tuned. It's just beginning to get interesting, as the same pattern as 2011 is playing out again, almost to to day, when stocks peaked at the end of April.
Volume was elevated once again and new lows beat new highs for the fourth consecutive session.
Dow 12,835.06, -97.03 (0.75%)
NASDAQ 2,934.71, -11.56 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,354.58, -9.14 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 7,827.75, -59.51 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,959,315,250
NYSE Volume 3,949,908,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1865-3709
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 106-161
WTI crude oil: 96.81, -0.20
Gold: 1,594.20, -10.30
Silver: 29.24, -0.22
In any case, it's made it easier for real, human investors to get the heck out of dodge, and it's likely that a good portion of the really smart money has already exited. This is apparent from the price of bonds, which have been in rally mode all week, pushing yields near historic lows.
The cause for all of the latest market turmoil is no big surprise; it is Europe, specifically Greece, but peripherally Spain and France, which seem the two most likely targets for increased political volatility, and thus, stock declines.
The Greeks have the world by the proverbial short hairs at the moment. At any given time, the EU, ECB, IMF or any of the nearly nations could tell the the government of Greece that it's game over, or that they'll loan them money anyway, which is exactly what happened today.
It was reported that the Greek government, even if it received the latest round of bailout money, could not meet it's obligations, so, one has to wonder, why bother? That's the line of the hard left parties in Greece at the moment. They don't want any more IMF or ECB bailout funds, preferring to go it alone, presumably to leave the Euro as a currency behind and take back up the drachma as its national money.
Of course, all of this uncertainty has a negative effect on stocks, though US markets have suffered much less than their European counterparts, some of which have already fallen into bear market territories, along with China, which has been in the grip of the bear for the past two years, but that's another story, and something that is also worrying the gloablists and their plans to control world commerce.
There is a problem with the US markets and their repeating pattern of falls and rises. The intra-day plunges keep getting deeper and deeper, setting new support levels which will, over time, be proven to have about all the holding power of a paper towel in a hurricane. Eventually, the computers will either be turned off or reprogrammed and the flush of stocks down the drain will be swift and complete. Even as it stands, stocks are off sharply over the past six sessions, with the Dow down all six, and the S&P and NASDAQ down five of six, the only positive returns for the duo being extremely marginal gains on Monday - a point on the NASDAQ, less than that (0.48) on the S&P.
Tomorrow, the drama continues, with the US throwing in with initial unemployment claims, a number that may be secondary to the uneasiness in Europe, but should provide a secondary betting point for the open. Stay tuned. It's just beginning to get interesting, as the same pattern as 2011 is playing out again, almost to to day, when stocks peaked at the end of April.
Volume was elevated once again and new lows beat new highs for the fourth consecutive session.
Dow 12,835.06, -97.03 (0.75%)
NASDAQ 2,934.71, -11.56 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,354.58, -9.14 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 7,827.75, -59.51 (0.75%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,959,315,250
NYSE Volume 3,949,908,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1865-3709
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 106-161
WTI crude oil: 96.81, -0.20
Gold: 1,594.20, -10.30
Silver: 29.24, -0.22
Tuesday, May 8, 2012
Equities Continue Retreat on Greece, Euro Breakup Fears
Sooner or later, the deniers will realize that the global economy is coming apart at the seams and that holding any kind of asset that isn't tangible, liquid or immediately tradable may not be worth the risk.
Almost daily, there are signs that the euro experiment is imploding, with Greece and France now at the forefront, but Italy, Spain and Portugal not far behind in terms of insolvency, anarchy and chaos.
The issues are the same: governments promised too much, spent too much and now don't have the funds to continue operating as they were during boom times. The specific trouble for nations using the Euro as currency is that they cannot print their way out of their messes, a la the United States, and must rely on the continued support of their neighboring nations and the ECB and IMF to fund their operations.
In Greece, the leader of Greece's Left Coalition party, Alexis Tsipras, began to start forming a coalition government, calling for repudiation of the bailout measures forced upon the nation and an investigation into whether the bailouts were even legal.
As Greece moved closer and closer to anarchy, chaos, and the eventual default upon its debts, it is becoming more clear that Greece will not long remain a member of the Eurozone, it's fate sealed by decades of underfunding pensions, loose tax policies and general corruption at high levels of the government.
France's new president, Francois Hollande, has promised voters to curtail the austerity measures that have cut jobs and pensions and has crippled the nation's economy.
European stocks were, by and large, down on the day, while in the US, the major indices suffered heavy losses early on, but rallied in the afternoon on nothing but vapors and in defiance of the reality offered by a collapsing European Union and general sluggishness in the global economy.
The Dow was down as many as 198 points before the afternoon rally cut those losses in half. The same was true on the NASDAQ and S&P, the latter down 22 points before shaving them to a marginal decline.
Despite the completely bogus and likely foolhardy buying into the dip mentality that is pervasive in these day-traded, momentum markets, the smartest of the smart money has probably already headed for the hills, seeking safe havens in treasuries or other hard assets, though one could not tell that from the action in gold, which, along with silver, was battered down and did not experience relief.
Central banks have been buying gold with both hands recently, all the better for them is their ability to dictate price to the market, swooping in to buy at bargain prices. However, today's activity was reminiscent of early 2008, before the great collapse that took all assets lower, though gold and silver began rebounding months before equities. Today's trade was more than likely the result of margin calls on stocks, being paid off by selling gold and silver, another foolhardy strategy.
While the utter collapse of the Euro and the global economy is by no means a certainty, signs of slowing and antecedent deflation are emerging, the real question being how far the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and other central banks will go with more policy easing and money printing before the game engulfs them completely.
The late-day rally on wall Street may have eased some nerves and cooled some of the fear, but the trend is surely in place, as stocks have fallen in four of the past five sessions (five for five for the Dow).
Also notable was the heavy volume, another sign that investors who want out are getting out, albeit not at the prices they may have wanted. Additionally, new highs - new lows has been negative for three consecutive sessions.
Dow 12,932.09, -76.44 (0.59%)
NASDAQ 2,946.27, -11.49 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,363.72, -5.86 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite 7,887.26, -61.50 (0.77%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,169,278,000
NYSE Volume 4,215,958,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2403-3181
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 110-178
WTI crude oil: 97.01, -0.93
Gold: 1,604.50, -34.60
Silver: 29.46, -0.66
Almost daily, there are signs that the euro experiment is imploding, with Greece and France now at the forefront, but Italy, Spain and Portugal not far behind in terms of insolvency, anarchy and chaos.
The issues are the same: governments promised too much, spent too much and now don't have the funds to continue operating as they were during boom times. The specific trouble for nations using the Euro as currency is that they cannot print their way out of their messes, a la the United States, and must rely on the continued support of their neighboring nations and the ECB and IMF to fund their operations.
In Greece, the leader of Greece's Left Coalition party, Alexis Tsipras, began to start forming a coalition government, calling for repudiation of the bailout measures forced upon the nation and an investigation into whether the bailouts were even legal.
As Greece moved closer and closer to anarchy, chaos, and the eventual default upon its debts, it is becoming more clear that Greece will not long remain a member of the Eurozone, it's fate sealed by decades of underfunding pensions, loose tax policies and general corruption at high levels of the government.
France's new president, Francois Hollande, has promised voters to curtail the austerity measures that have cut jobs and pensions and has crippled the nation's economy.
European stocks were, by and large, down on the day, while in the US, the major indices suffered heavy losses early on, but rallied in the afternoon on nothing but vapors and in defiance of the reality offered by a collapsing European Union and general sluggishness in the global economy.
The Dow was down as many as 198 points before the afternoon rally cut those losses in half. The same was true on the NASDAQ and S&P, the latter down 22 points before shaving them to a marginal decline.
Despite the completely bogus and likely foolhardy buying into the dip mentality that is pervasive in these day-traded, momentum markets, the smartest of the smart money has probably already headed for the hills, seeking safe havens in treasuries or other hard assets, though one could not tell that from the action in gold, which, along with silver, was battered down and did not experience relief.
Central banks have been buying gold with both hands recently, all the better for them is their ability to dictate price to the market, swooping in to buy at bargain prices. However, today's activity was reminiscent of early 2008, before the great collapse that took all assets lower, though gold and silver began rebounding months before equities. Today's trade was more than likely the result of margin calls on stocks, being paid off by selling gold and silver, another foolhardy strategy.
While the utter collapse of the Euro and the global economy is by no means a certainty, signs of slowing and antecedent deflation are emerging, the real question being how far the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and other central banks will go with more policy easing and money printing before the game engulfs them completely.
The late-day rally on wall Street may have eased some nerves and cooled some of the fear, but the trend is surely in place, as stocks have fallen in four of the past five sessions (five for five for the Dow).
Also notable was the heavy volume, another sign that investors who want out are getting out, albeit not at the prices they may have wanted. Additionally, new highs - new lows has been negative for three consecutive sessions.
Dow 12,932.09, -76.44 (0.59%)
NASDAQ 2,946.27, -11.49 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,363.72, -5.86 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite 7,887.26, -61.50 (0.77%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,169,278,000
NYSE Volume 4,215,958,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2403-3181
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 110-178
WTI crude oil: 97.01, -0.93
Gold: 1,604.50, -34.60
Silver: 29.46, -0.66
Monday, May 7, 2012
US and European Subdued Reaction to French, Greek Voting
The tide has turned in Europe... against austerity, whatever that means, and towards more socialistic societies in both France and Greece, as Francois Hollande defeated right wing president Nicolas Sarkozy on Sunday, and the Greek Parliamentary elections produced a government with no clear majority for any party and difficult coalitions to be formed ahead.
While the French election results represent a complete shift in sentiment, the issues for Greece will almost surely come to the forefront of Europe's continuing debt crisis as minority parties will almost surely attempt to block the wholesale gutting of the country by the ECB and IMF. Recent agreements over debt restructuring and repayment are already suffering serious difficulty; the opportunity for a disorderly default by the Hellenic nation certainly back on the table.
Reaction in Asia was negative, with all markets suffering losses, probably the eventual result for markets globally, once the "all is well" phony, manipulated response in Europe and America is worked through. european markets were mixed, as were those in the US, the result of more central planning and full-spectrum control, which will eventually fail.
There was no other economic news worth noting, though, as is usually the case in controlled, bogus markets, the day's results were muted and in plain opposition to facts.
There will almost certainly be a period of adjustment in the Western markets before the full brunt of a sea change in politics is accepted. Until then, expect markets in the US and Europe to behave as they have been, adrift on piles of freshly-printed worthless money, in denial of the truth and more than likely sideways before heading into the awaiting maw of the abyss into which they must fall.
Almost imperceptibly, the decline in equity prices has already begun. New lows bettered new highs for the second straight session, an indicator that should not be ignored during a period of rapid change.
Dow 13,008.53, -29.74 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,957.76, +1.42 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,369.58, +0.48 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,948.77, +15.47 (0.19%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,738,947,625
NYSE Volume 3,535,832,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3054-2523
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 112-134
WTI crude oil: 97.94, -0.55
Gold: 1,639.10, -6.10
Silver: 30.12, -0.31
While the French election results represent a complete shift in sentiment, the issues for Greece will almost surely come to the forefront of Europe's continuing debt crisis as minority parties will almost surely attempt to block the wholesale gutting of the country by the ECB and IMF. Recent agreements over debt restructuring and repayment are already suffering serious difficulty; the opportunity for a disorderly default by the Hellenic nation certainly back on the table.
Reaction in Asia was negative, with all markets suffering losses, probably the eventual result for markets globally, once the "all is well" phony, manipulated response in Europe and America is worked through. european markets were mixed, as were those in the US, the result of more central planning and full-spectrum control, which will eventually fail.
There was no other economic news worth noting, though, as is usually the case in controlled, bogus markets, the day's results were muted and in plain opposition to facts.
There will almost certainly be a period of adjustment in the Western markets before the full brunt of a sea change in politics is accepted. Until then, expect markets in the US and Europe to behave as they have been, adrift on piles of freshly-printed worthless money, in denial of the truth and more than likely sideways before heading into the awaiting maw of the abyss into which they must fall.
Almost imperceptibly, the decline in equity prices has already begun. New lows bettered new highs for the second straight session, an indicator that should not be ignored during a period of rapid change.
Dow 13,008.53, -29.74 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,957.76, +1.42 (0.05%)
S&P 500 1,369.58, +0.48 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,948.77, +15.47 (0.19%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,738,947,625
NYSE Volume 3,535,832,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3054-2523
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 112-134
WTI crude oil: 97.94, -0.55
Gold: 1,639.10, -6.10
Silver: 30.12, -0.31
Friday, May 4, 2012
Payroll Number Slams Stocks to the Deck
Yesterday in this space, it was suggested that the immediate future for stocks was all tied to today's non-farm payroll number from the BLS, and, as the ADP figure from Wednesday foretold, the results were lower than expectations and on the whole, put a serious dent in the "road to recovery" theory.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 115,000 net new jobs were created in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, though the reason for the decline in unemployment were that more people ran to the end of their unemployment benefits and others left the workforce entirely. The US workforce participation rate shrank to 63.6% of the adult population, the lowest since 1981.
While the 115,000 new jobs are barely enough to keep pace with a growing workforce in normal times, in the abnormality of today, people are not entering the labor force, but leaving it, putting a very large question mark at the end of any discussion regarding jobs in the United State. It is obvious from this report and others before it that the country's businesses are simply not creating enough jobs to get back to anything even close to full employment. The reasons behind the non-hiring conditions are manifold, but are centered on lack of demand in a sluggish economy wracked by over-regulation and conflicting visions of the near future by legislators who have sat upon their hands and watched the economy deteriorate.
Stocks took a beating right at the start and continued their downward trajectory throughout the morning, finally bottoming out around the lunch hour. The remainder of the session was spent wringing hands, with no noticeable movement in either direction, as the major averages settled into a support range.
A variety of analysts took differing views on the NFP number, most making he point that this April number was a kind of "payback" for the strong numbers in January and February. However, those gains were - in a large part - due to accounting tinkering at the BLS with seasonal adjustments heading the suspect list of fudge-makers.
Governments shed 15,000 jobs, so the private sector growth was 130,000, which, after all, is still a gain, but the underlying trends of many marginally-employed people and those dropping out of the workforce remain problematic over the long haul. The 115,000 was well below consensus estimates for 162,000. whatever ways one wishes to spin it or slice it, a miss is still a miss and investors took note along with short term profits.
The results speak for themselves and put the country's economic future more or less on hold until the May numbers are released. That's a long time for uncertainty to fester and other events to take the situation to even worse levels. While a good portion of the labor condition is being led by political considerations, most of it is the pure stuff of economics textbooks. Slack demand and stagnancy, even in an era of absurdly low interest rates, makes hiring decisions problematic and possibly shelved for a future date. The decay of confidence at all levels of the business community continues to feed upon itself in a very non-virtuous loop, the most egregious effects being felt in the small and start-up areas, where most new jobs are created.
Analysts and pundits can make up all the excuses and white lies they like, but the numbers speak for themselves and they are not pretty.
Notably, new lows exceeded new highs for the first time in over a month, losing stocks were widespread, outnumbering winners by a 7:2 ratio. Oil took a severe downturn for the second straight day, closing below $99 per barrel for the first time since February. The $4.05 decline was the largest of 2012. Gas at the retail pump remains stubbornly high, despite recent pull-backs.
Gold and silver rebounded from recent declines, more in sympathy with unstable global economic conditions than any other factor.
Dow 13,038.27, -168.32 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,956.34, -67.96 (2.25%)
S&P 500 1,369.10, -22.47 (1.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,933.29, -116.59 (1.45%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,937,374,375
NYSE Volume 3,924,361,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1268-4345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-140
WTI crude oil: 98.49, -4.05
Gold: 1,645.20, 10.40
Silver: 30.43, +0.42
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said 115,000 net new jobs were created in April, and the unemployment rate dipped to 8.1%, though the reason for the decline in unemployment were that more people ran to the end of their unemployment benefits and others left the workforce entirely. The US workforce participation rate shrank to 63.6% of the adult population, the lowest since 1981.
While the 115,000 new jobs are barely enough to keep pace with a growing workforce in normal times, in the abnormality of today, people are not entering the labor force, but leaving it, putting a very large question mark at the end of any discussion regarding jobs in the United State. It is obvious from this report and others before it that the country's businesses are simply not creating enough jobs to get back to anything even close to full employment. The reasons behind the non-hiring conditions are manifold, but are centered on lack of demand in a sluggish economy wracked by over-regulation and conflicting visions of the near future by legislators who have sat upon their hands and watched the economy deteriorate.
Stocks took a beating right at the start and continued their downward trajectory throughout the morning, finally bottoming out around the lunch hour. The remainder of the session was spent wringing hands, with no noticeable movement in either direction, as the major averages settled into a support range.
A variety of analysts took differing views on the NFP number, most making he point that this April number was a kind of "payback" for the strong numbers in January and February. However, those gains were - in a large part - due to accounting tinkering at the BLS with seasonal adjustments heading the suspect list of fudge-makers.
Governments shed 15,000 jobs, so the private sector growth was 130,000, which, after all, is still a gain, but the underlying trends of many marginally-employed people and those dropping out of the workforce remain problematic over the long haul. The 115,000 was well below consensus estimates for 162,000. whatever ways one wishes to spin it or slice it, a miss is still a miss and investors took note along with short term profits.
The results speak for themselves and put the country's economic future more or less on hold until the May numbers are released. That's a long time for uncertainty to fester and other events to take the situation to even worse levels. While a good portion of the labor condition is being led by political considerations, most of it is the pure stuff of economics textbooks. Slack demand and stagnancy, even in an era of absurdly low interest rates, makes hiring decisions problematic and possibly shelved for a future date. The decay of confidence at all levels of the business community continues to feed upon itself in a very non-virtuous loop, the most egregious effects being felt in the small and start-up areas, where most new jobs are created.
Analysts and pundits can make up all the excuses and white lies they like, but the numbers speak for themselves and they are not pretty.
Notably, new lows exceeded new highs for the first time in over a month, losing stocks were widespread, outnumbering winners by a 7:2 ratio. Oil took a severe downturn for the second straight day, closing below $99 per barrel for the first time since February. The $4.05 decline was the largest of 2012. Gas at the retail pump remains stubbornly high, despite recent pull-backs.
Gold and silver rebounded from recent declines, more in sympathy with unstable global economic conditions than any other factor.
Dow 13,038.27, -168.32 (1.27%)
NASDAQ 2,956.34, -67.96 (2.25%)
S&P 500 1,369.10, -22.47 (1.61%)
NYSE Composite 7,933.29, -116.59 (1.45%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,937,374,375
NYSE Volume 3,924,361,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1268-4345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-140
WTI crude oil: 98.49, -4.05
Gold: 1,645.20, 10.40
Silver: 30.43, +0.42
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