Stocks were slip-sliding away again on Friday until Speaker of the House, Republican John Boehner, emerged from a meeting with the president sounding very conciliatory and committed to a deal on the fiscal cliff issues facing the federal government.
Boehner spoke to the press just before noon, as stocks reached their lows of the day. Following his remarks that there was a "framework" in the negotiations - which include fellow Republican Mitch McConnell, Nancy Peolsi and Senate majority leader Harry Reid - stocks took off on a tear, with all the major indices quickly erasing losses and turing positive, where they remained, for the most part, into the close.
The Dow, which had been sporting a loss of 71 points, rallied 120 points in a matter of twenty minutes.
Boehner has a tricky path to navigate, between playing hard ball with Democrats while keeping his fellow Republicans - especially those of the Tea Party denomination - from mutiny and potentially blowing up negotiations, but for today, at least, he played the part of a Wall Street superhero.
A couple of other salient points on which to close out the week:
October industrial production dropped 0.4% and capacity utilization fell from 78.2 to 77.8, a significant decline, suggesting that the economy may not be just limping along, but actually slipping.
The advance-decline line was positive for the first time this week, though new lows were once again ahead of new highs, for the eighth consecutive session, or, for those cynics in our midst, since the re-election of President Obama.
It was a real downer of a week for the bulls, especially being options expiry on Friday, a day usually reserved for back-slapping and rounds of drinks over big scores. There was probably more crying into beers late this afternoon than glad-handing fellow insiders.
That's a wrap, and don't expect much next week, as the market faces a short week with a half-day session on Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving. Additionally, President Obama will be visiting the Far East during the week, so no meaningful negotiations are likely until his return and after the weekend, leaving the politicians just about four weeks before Christmas to work things out.
Good luck with that.
Dow 12,588.31, +45.93 (0.37%)
NASDAQ 2,853.13, +16.19 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,359.88, +6.55 (0.48%)
NYSE Composite 7,931.55, +34.67 (0.44%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,191,482,500
NYSE Volume 3,991,566,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3638-1796
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 28-329
WTI crude oil: 86.67, +1.22
Gold: 1,714.70, +0.90
Silver: 32.37, -0.304
Friday, November 16, 2012
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Stocks Stabilize, Still End Lower as More Trouble Looms
After Wednesday's wicked downdraft, cooler heads prevailed in Thursday's trading, keeping losses to a minimum as bargain-hunters swooped in to snatch up some shares of stocks which look to be marked down for a pre-Christmas sale.
Whether or not these so-called "bargains" will turn into winners is anybody's guess, though the real experts in market dynamics see more trouble ahead as Washington tries to come to a deal before January 1 of 2013, when mandatory spending cuts and tax increases are set to take place.
Placing one's hope - and one's money - on politicians in Washington actually accomplishing anything of such importance is akin to betting on a cheap claimer in a stakes race: the odds are very much against it.
As was the case with the battle over raising the debt limit last August, the DC crowd has shown no willingness to compromise on much of anything and the "fiscal cliff" issue is right up drama alley for our clownish elected leaders.
Eventually, the adult in the room seems to be the president, Barack Obama, who must navigate the press and the pressure of dealing with an intractable house of representatives, whose sole mission seems to be to spare the wealthiest two percent of earners any tax increases, even at the peril of the nation.
How this tableau will eventually play out is somewhat predictable. It will be taken out to the last possible moment, and quite possibly beyond. Word is that the legislators have until mid-February to actually come to their senses and a deal if the United States is to avoid an utterly avoidable recession, caused entirely by public policy.
This play has certainly caught Wall Street's attention, as evidenced by the sharp declines over the past month and especially since the election, just over a week ago.
What some market participants fail to realize - or won't say publicly - is that the market may well have already run out of gas, almost all of it supplied by the magnanimous Federal Reserve, whose QE policies have injected trillions into the hands of the banking cartel.
The Dow and S&P made double tops in mid-September and early October, then failed to surpass those highs later in the month, a classic chart pattern signaling a primary trend change and a bearish one, similar to the breakdown in the fall of 2007.
As for the NASDAQ, it didn't even bother to retrace the highs of September, simply capitulating in October and continuing a cascading fall, closing in quickly on the June lows.
If this is the beginning of a bear market, the foolery in Washington will be nothing more than a sideshow. The economy - both here and globally - is in a weakened condition already and may not be able to sustain even a medium shock, much less one that raises taxes and trims budgets, reducing head-count, and thus, overall spending.
Add to that the double-dip recession now official in the Eurozone and growing tensions in the Middle East and the recipe for disaster is laid bare.
Wall Street and its brokerage houses should emblazon their entrances with a warning sign: Beware Falling Stocks.
Today's minor decline could be seen as somewhat remarkable in the face of some disturbing economic events. Initial unemployment claims rose dramatically, from 361K to 439K this week, due partly to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey laid an egg as well, posting a reading of negative 10.7 on expectations of a fat zero.
Besides the internal damage done to markets, all of the major indices are now firmly moored below their 200-day moving averages, not a pretty sight until some catalyst comes along to change the dynamic, and none appears to be on the horizon.
The advance-decline line was still severely negative and new lows exceeded new highs for the sixth day in a row.
All signs point to further weakness, though a technical bounce could send stocks up briefly, but the holiday season, thus far, isn't shaping up to be a very jolly time.
Dow 12,542.38, -28.57 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,836.94, -9.87 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,353.32, -2.17 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 7,896.87, -6.56 (0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,975,168,625
NYSE Volume 3,892,497,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1954-3591
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 25-456 (this is extreme!)
WTI crude oil: 85.45, -0.87
Gold: 1,713.80, -16.30
Silver: 32.67, -0.206
Whether or not these so-called "bargains" will turn into winners is anybody's guess, though the real experts in market dynamics see more trouble ahead as Washington tries to come to a deal before January 1 of 2013, when mandatory spending cuts and tax increases are set to take place.
Placing one's hope - and one's money - on politicians in Washington actually accomplishing anything of such importance is akin to betting on a cheap claimer in a stakes race: the odds are very much against it.
As was the case with the battle over raising the debt limit last August, the DC crowd has shown no willingness to compromise on much of anything and the "fiscal cliff" issue is right up drama alley for our clownish elected leaders.
Eventually, the adult in the room seems to be the president, Barack Obama, who must navigate the press and the pressure of dealing with an intractable house of representatives, whose sole mission seems to be to spare the wealthiest two percent of earners any tax increases, even at the peril of the nation.
How this tableau will eventually play out is somewhat predictable. It will be taken out to the last possible moment, and quite possibly beyond. Word is that the legislators have until mid-February to actually come to their senses and a deal if the United States is to avoid an utterly avoidable recession, caused entirely by public policy.
This play has certainly caught Wall Street's attention, as evidenced by the sharp declines over the past month and especially since the election, just over a week ago.
What some market participants fail to realize - or won't say publicly - is that the market may well have already run out of gas, almost all of it supplied by the magnanimous Federal Reserve, whose QE policies have injected trillions into the hands of the banking cartel.
The Dow and S&P made double tops in mid-September and early October, then failed to surpass those highs later in the month, a classic chart pattern signaling a primary trend change and a bearish one, similar to the breakdown in the fall of 2007.
As for the NASDAQ, it didn't even bother to retrace the highs of September, simply capitulating in October and continuing a cascading fall, closing in quickly on the June lows.
If this is the beginning of a bear market, the foolery in Washington will be nothing more than a sideshow. The economy - both here and globally - is in a weakened condition already and may not be able to sustain even a medium shock, much less one that raises taxes and trims budgets, reducing head-count, and thus, overall spending.
Add to that the double-dip recession now official in the Eurozone and growing tensions in the Middle East and the recipe for disaster is laid bare.
Wall Street and its brokerage houses should emblazon their entrances with a warning sign: Beware Falling Stocks.
Today's minor decline could be seen as somewhat remarkable in the face of some disturbing economic events. Initial unemployment claims rose dramatically, from 361K to 439K this week, due partly to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey laid an egg as well, posting a reading of negative 10.7 on expectations of a fat zero.
Besides the internal damage done to markets, all of the major indices are now firmly moored below their 200-day moving averages, not a pretty sight until some catalyst comes along to change the dynamic, and none appears to be on the horizon.
The advance-decline line was still severely negative and new lows exceeded new highs for the sixth day in a row.
All signs point to further weakness, though a technical bounce could send stocks up briefly, but the holiday season, thus far, isn't shaping up to be a very jolly time.
Dow 12,542.38, -28.57 (0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,836.94, -9.87 (0.35%)
S&P 500 1,353.32, -2.17 (0.16%)
NYSE Composite 7,896.87, -6.56 (0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,975,168,625
NYSE Volume 3,892,497,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1954-3591
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 25-456 (this is extreme!)
WTI crude oil: 85.45, -0.87
Gold: 1,713.80, -16.30
Silver: 32.67, -0.206
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Stocks Take Another Beating; Dow Off 185, NASDAQ in Correction
All the issues and problems facing the US and global economies are coming home to roost in a perfect storm of excessive debt, fiscal intransigence, monetary experimentation, overpriced equities, general distrust of leadership, lack of growth, geopolitical tension and poor earnings prospects for corporations.
The selloff today was a continuation of what's been occurring since before the election, but has accelerated dramatically since. Wall Street is quite unhappy with prospects that President Obama will not budge from his position to eliminate the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest two percent of Americans, as emphatically spelled out in an early afternoon press conference.
The president was cool, calm and collected, fielding questions on a variety of topics, but, even though he mentioned compromise frequently, he did not waver in his commitment to tax the wealthy at more than their current rates, including gains on investments, particularly - Wall Street fears - regular income and dividends.
Taking their cue from the president's message, stocks, which opened briefly higher, but quickly fell deep into the red, made new lows nearing the end of his remarks and continued lower into the close, the Dow suffering a 185-point loss and the NASDAQ reaching levels 10% below their recent highs, crashing into correction territory.
With all of the major indices, including even the Russell 2000 of mostly small cap stocks, continuing their descent below their respective 200-day moving averages, bottoms were sought out, though none could be found.
The massive run-up which began in March of 2009 is being unwound, with most of the blame being laid upon the politicians in Washington, DC, though there are more than a few more scapegoats, notably the greed and feed crowd that started the entire mess - the irresponsible banking community and their masters of control, the Federal Reserve.
With the dual policies of ZIRP and massive monetization, the Fed enabled much of Wall Street's excess and continues to do so even today. The neo-Keynesian policies of Ben Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, has spawned a debt bubble deflation crisis that they cannot - as much as they try - spend their way out of.
Most individual investors have been fleeing the market or have already taken their seats on the sidelines, so the damage being done to stocks is going to impact the middle and upper classes the most, with 401k, investment and pension plans taking the brunt of the declines.
In particular, Dow stocks, seen by many as representing the core of American industrialism, have lost more than 1100 points since their highs in early October, erasing most of the gains made throughout the year.
While Washington politicians dither over negotiations to avoid massive tax increases and huge budget cuts (which some say are needed), investors are worried that whatever solution they arrive at will be too little, too late and more of a can-kicking exercise than real reform.
With the holidays fast approaching, Americans are not in a mood for more business as usual from either Wall Street or Washington, and the anger is growing, even on Main Street, where small businesses continue to suffer or skirt taxation completely.
The next few days and weeks could easily turn into a crisis more severe than that of 2008, since none of the improprieties produced by that financial peer into the abyss have yet to be resolved, and now there are fewer measures the Fed or the Treasury can employ to keep the economy afloat.
If anyone thought that the crisis in America was over - to say nothing of the even worse conditions in Europe - they should pay close attention to what happens over the next sixty to ninety days, because they will surely be replete with wild market swings, irony and recriminations from all sides against each other.
Surviving into and beyond 2013 will be a major test of not only the American spirit but of Americans' willingness to accept leadership. President Obama's election to a second term was probably the correct choice, but he alone cannot fix the mess others created.
After today, the bankers and the wizard genii of Wall Street should be running for cover they should have sought out years ago.
Today was a truly dark day, though, from the looks of things, there are many more to come.
Grow some crops if you can, stay close to home and loved ones, and remember our motto: FREE HOUSES FOR EVERYONE!
Dow 12,570.95, -185.23 (1.45%)
NASDAQ 2,846.81, -37.08 (1.29%)
S&P 500 1,355.49, -19.04 (1.39%)
NYSE Composite 7,903.42, -119.81 (1.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,103,531,000
NYSE Volume 4,062,878,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 822-4741
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 39-333 (WoW!)
WTI crude oil: 86.32, +0.94
Gold: 1,730.10, +5.30
Silver: 32.88, +0.393
The selloff today was a continuation of what's been occurring since before the election, but has accelerated dramatically since. Wall Street is quite unhappy with prospects that President Obama will not budge from his position to eliminate the Bush tax cuts on the wealthiest two percent of Americans, as emphatically spelled out in an early afternoon press conference.
The president was cool, calm and collected, fielding questions on a variety of topics, but, even though he mentioned compromise frequently, he did not waver in his commitment to tax the wealthy at more than their current rates, including gains on investments, particularly - Wall Street fears - regular income and dividends.
Taking their cue from the president's message, stocks, which opened briefly higher, but quickly fell deep into the red, made new lows nearing the end of his remarks and continued lower into the close, the Dow suffering a 185-point loss and the NASDAQ reaching levels 10% below their recent highs, crashing into correction territory.
With all of the major indices, including even the Russell 2000 of mostly small cap stocks, continuing their descent below their respective 200-day moving averages, bottoms were sought out, though none could be found.
The massive run-up which began in March of 2009 is being unwound, with most of the blame being laid upon the politicians in Washington, DC, though there are more than a few more scapegoats, notably the greed and feed crowd that started the entire mess - the irresponsible banking community and their masters of control, the Federal Reserve.
With the dual policies of ZIRP and massive monetization, the Fed enabled much of Wall Street's excess and continues to do so even today. The neo-Keynesian policies of Ben Bernanke and his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, has spawned a debt bubble deflation crisis that they cannot - as much as they try - spend their way out of.
Most individual investors have been fleeing the market or have already taken their seats on the sidelines, so the damage being done to stocks is going to impact the middle and upper classes the most, with 401k, investment and pension plans taking the brunt of the declines.
In particular, Dow stocks, seen by many as representing the core of American industrialism, have lost more than 1100 points since their highs in early October, erasing most of the gains made throughout the year.
While Washington politicians dither over negotiations to avoid massive tax increases and huge budget cuts (which some say are needed), investors are worried that whatever solution they arrive at will be too little, too late and more of a can-kicking exercise than real reform.
With the holidays fast approaching, Americans are not in a mood for more business as usual from either Wall Street or Washington, and the anger is growing, even on Main Street, where small businesses continue to suffer or skirt taxation completely.
The next few days and weeks could easily turn into a crisis more severe than that of 2008, since none of the improprieties produced by that financial peer into the abyss have yet to be resolved, and now there are fewer measures the Fed or the Treasury can employ to keep the economy afloat.
If anyone thought that the crisis in America was over - to say nothing of the even worse conditions in Europe - they should pay close attention to what happens over the next sixty to ninety days, because they will surely be replete with wild market swings, irony and recriminations from all sides against each other.
Surviving into and beyond 2013 will be a major test of not only the American spirit but of Americans' willingness to accept leadership. President Obama's election to a second term was probably the correct choice, but he alone cannot fix the mess others created.
After today, the bankers and the wizard genii of Wall Street should be running for cover they should have sought out years ago.
Today was a truly dark day, though, from the looks of things, there are many more to come.
Grow some crops if you can, stay close to home and loved ones, and remember our motto: FREE HOUSES FOR EVERYONE!
Dow 12,570.95, -185.23 (1.45%)
NASDAQ 2,846.81, -37.08 (1.29%)
S&P 500 1,355.49, -19.04 (1.39%)
NYSE Composite 7,903.42, -119.81 (1.49%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,103,531,000
NYSE Volume 4,062,878,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 822-4741
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 39-333 (WoW!)
WTI crude oil: 86.32, +0.94
Gold: 1,730.10, +5.30
Silver: 32.88, +0.393
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
Slipping Over the Fiscal Cliff? Stocks Dumped at End of Day
Today's late day action isn't what has been the norm for this artificially-pumped-up market for the last three-and-a-half years. Normally, at the end of the session, the markets stage a "miracle" rally out of the blue, then send futures soaring into the next day's trading.
Today was a little bit different and investors better get used to it or get out, go short or just suffer losses.
Fear of the US going over the fiscal cliff and sending the economy into a tailspin recession would be an unabashed disaster, but that seems to be more on the mind of traders than anything else these days. The problem is that the issues facing the US government aren't going away soon and aren't likely to be solved by a president who's done little in four years and a congress that's done nothing good for the American public for the past 12.
So, after taking on a 67-point loss on the Dow in early trading, stocks regained their momentum (what little there was), based largely on results from Home Depot (HD) which beat third quarter estimates and was traded up to a 12-year high on the day. As has been the pattern recently, however, the rally which took the Dow up 83 points was quickly sold off, and, in the final hour of trading, stocks took the beating they so richly deserved in the morning.
If not for the bogus midday rally (which, remarkably, was a pan-Atlantic event, taking all European stock indices up sharply at the closes of their sessions), the Dow may well have suffered a 100+ loss, but the day-trading crowd that controls all buying and selling with their wickedly fast HFT computer algos couldn't have that, so, the small loss is what got cooked into the day.
With no economic news and very few significant companies reporting third quarter earnings, the markets are stuck with waiting on the government for solutions, and, from what we've seen here and in Europe and Japan, that can be a long and painful wait.
The action continues tomorrow, with just two days left before options expiration on Friday. This current round hasn't been pretty nor profitable for many.
It was the fifth straight day in which new lows topped new highs (and by a widening margin) and the same for the A-D line being negative. all of the major indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages, with no relief in sight.
Dow 12,756.18, -58.90 (0.46%)
NASDAQ 2,883.89, -20.37 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,374.53, -5.50 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,023.23, -30.83 (0.38%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,814,780,250
NYSE Volume 3,427,123,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1773-3741
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 56-249
WTI crude oil: 85.38, -0.19
Gold: 1,724.80, -6.10
Silver: 32.49, 0.035
Today was a little bit different and investors better get used to it or get out, go short or just suffer losses.
Fear of the US going over the fiscal cliff and sending the economy into a tailspin recession would be an unabashed disaster, but that seems to be more on the mind of traders than anything else these days. The problem is that the issues facing the US government aren't going away soon and aren't likely to be solved by a president who's done little in four years and a congress that's done nothing good for the American public for the past 12.
So, after taking on a 67-point loss on the Dow in early trading, stocks regained their momentum (what little there was), based largely on results from Home Depot (HD) which beat third quarter estimates and was traded up to a 12-year high on the day. As has been the pattern recently, however, the rally which took the Dow up 83 points was quickly sold off, and, in the final hour of trading, stocks took the beating they so richly deserved in the morning.
If not for the bogus midday rally (which, remarkably, was a pan-Atlantic event, taking all European stock indices up sharply at the closes of their sessions), the Dow may well have suffered a 100+ loss, but the day-trading crowd that controls all buying and selling with their wickedly fast HFT computer algos couldn't have that, so, the small loss is what got cooked into the day.
With no economic news and very few significant companies reporting third quarter earnings, the markets are stuck with waiting on the government for solutions, and, from what we've seen here and in Europe and Japan, that can be a long and painful wait.
The action continues tomorrow, with just two days left before options expiration on Friday. This current round hasn't been pretty nor profitable for many.
It was the fifth straight day in which new lows topped new highs (and by a widening margin) and the same for the A-D line being negative. all of the major indices are trading below their 200-day moving averages, with no relief in sight.
Dow 12,756.18, -58.90 (0.46%)
NASDAQ 2,883.89, -20.37 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,374.53, -5.50 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite 8,023.23, -30.83 (0.38%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,814,780,250
NYSE Volume 3,427,123,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1773-3741
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 56-249
WTI crude oil: 85.38, -0.19
Gold: 1,724.80, -6.10
Silver: 32.49, 0.035
Monday, November 12, 2012
Tug-of-War Continues on Wall Street as Stock Stay Flat
Is this the new, post-election normal, or, is there just so much uncertainty in the markets that half the crowd is buying while the other half is selling?
One thing is for certain: stocks have gone nowhere - eventually settling roughly where they started - for the second session in a row. This kind of directionless pattern leaves everybody shaking their collective heads, and, on a day like today - in which bond markets were closed in observance of Veteran's Day - it's assumed that nobody made much money, including the brokerages, because volume was so low.
Currently, there is a dearth of news and the markets seem to be waiting for some kind of resolutions in Washington over the issue of the "fiscal cliff," but if Wall Street waits until the politicians do a deal, it could be a long wait indeed.
With no catalyst to the upside and stocks sitting pretty much under resistance (the Dow and NASDAQ under their 200-day moving averages, S&P sitting right on its), there's a good probability that another leg downward could be forced by some outside event - a black swan, so to speak - though nobody has any idea where or what such an event would look like.
What is a little bit odd about the trading over the past two days is that it's so close to options expiry on Friday. One would normally be expecting a ramp-up, and, that could come on Tuesday or Wednesday, regardless of what anyone thinks, hopes or believes. Wall Street is still run on the dual emotions of greed and fear, and if there's no fear (the vix was well down today), greed will overtake it and move stoks higher. Traders have to trade, and they'd rather be advising clients to get in now, off the recent move lower, than be selling on their own or their clients' behalves.
The odd trading pattern that was evident on all the major exchanges saw the averages up for the first half hour, slide slowly to the lows of the day just after 11:00 am, bottom, and then race to highs of the day in a straight line between 12:15 and 1:15 pm.
That was all she wrote, however, as stocks took a stair-step pattern back to the break even line, making the day look like a day-trader's nightmare, which it may well have been.
There was virtually nothing notable to report in either Europe or the US, though Japan's economy shrank by 3.5% in the third quarter, further evidence of the global slowdown. On the other side of the ledger, China announced strong exports, but their data has been proven time and again to be often more fiction than fact.
China may well have increased exports recently, but to whom, and why? Global demand has been flat to declining, so maybe China has rediscovered McDonald's secret sauce to fuel its success.
None of that mattered a whit in the US or Europe, which was also lackluster.
Tomorrow may be different, but, it may be more of the same. That's just the environment we have.
A couple of indications may be worthwhile in the advance-decline line, which was marginally negative, and the fat that new lows outpaced new highs for the fourth day in a row, something of a trend developing, maybe.
Dow 12,815.16, -0.23 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 2,904.26, -0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,380.00, +0.15(0.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,059.68, +6.11(0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,351,375,130
NYSE Volume 2,503,732,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2343-2901
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 89-174
WTI crude oil: 85.57, -0.50
Gold: 1,727.70, -3.20
Silver: 32.38, -0.147
One thing is for certain: stocks have gone nowhere - eventually settling roughly where they started - for the second session in a row. This kind of directionless pattern leaves everybody shaking their collective heads, and, on a day like today - in which bond markets were closed in observance of Veteran's Day - it's assumed that nobody made much money, including the brokerages, because volume was so low.
Currently, there is a dearth of news and the markets seem to be waiting for some kind of resolutions in Washington over the issue of the "fiscal cliff," but if Wall Street waits until the politicians do a deal, it could be a long wait indeed.
With no catalyst to the upside and stocks sitting pretty much under resistance (the Dow and NASDAQ under their 200-day moving averages, S&P sitting right on its), there's a good probability that another leg downward could be forced by some outside event - a black swan, so to speak - though nobody has any idea where or what such an event would look like.
What is a little bit odd about the trading over the past two days is that it's so close to options expiry on Friday. One would normally be expecting a ramp-up, and, that could come on Tuesday or Wednesday, regardless of what anyone thinks, hopes or believes. Wall Street is still run on the dual emotions of greed and fear, and if there's no fear (the vix was well down today), greed will overtake it and move stoks higher. Traders have to trade, and they'd rather be advising clients to get in now, off the recent move lower, than be selling on their own or their clients' behalves.
The odd trading pattern that was evident on all the major exchanges saw the averages up for the first half hour, slide slowly to the lows of the day just after 11:00 am, bottom, and then race to highs of the day in a straight line between 12:15 and 1:15 pm.
That was all she wrote, however, as stocks took a stair-step pattern back to the break even line, making the day look like a day-trader's nightmare, which it may well have been.
There was virtually nothing notable to report in either Europe or the US, though Japan's economy shrank by 3.5% in the third quarter, further evidence of the global slowdown. On the other side of the ledger, China announced strong exports, but their data has been proven time and again to be often more fiction than fact.
China may well have increased exports recently, but to whom, and why? Global demand has been flat to declining, so maybe China has rediscovered McDonald's secret sauce to fuel its success.
None of that mattered a whit in the US or Europe, which was also lackluster.
Tomorrow may be different, but, it may be more of the same. That's just the environment we have.
A couple of indications may be worthwhile in the advance-decline line, which was marginally negative, and the fat that new lows outpaced new highs for the fourth day in a row, something of a trend developing, maybe.
Dow 12,815.16, -0.23 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 2,904.26, -0.61 (0.02%)
S&P 500 1,380.00, +0.15(0.01%)
NYSE Composite 8,059.68, +6.11(0.08%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,351,375,130
NYSE Volume 2,503,732,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2343-2901
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 89-174
WTI crude oil: 85.57, -0.50
Gold: 1,727.70, -3.20
Silver: 32.38, -0.147
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
