Can it really be this easy?
Apparently, investing has become more sport than discipline, as the major indices drove again to new highs - the NASDAQ bounding over 3300, with the Dow, the Comp. and S&P 500 setting new all-time record closes.
In addition to the Fed's constant $85 billion/month put, there are other factors at work. Money is pouring out of Japan and Europe since the Cyprus incident and the BOJ's experimental monetary policy that makes Bernanke's monetizing of US debt appear paltry.
The Japanese central bank, while openly buying all the government issued treasuries it can, is also tinkering in the open markets, buying ETFs and REITs, especially.
If Bernanke gets a whiff of this kind of action, US markets could be buffeted with even more stimulus by the Fed, openly buying stocks to levitate the equity markets higher.
When it will end is anybody's guess, but, despite some Fed officials openly saying - in yesterday's leaked February Fed minutes - that they'd like to taper the bond purchases this year and possibly end them by year's end, Friday's non-farm payroll and today's news that first quarter PC shipments fell by 13.9% globally, the worst decline since records began being kept in 1994.
While Wall Street is flying high, the real economy may not be quite so robust. Many argue that the US is still in a recession, and that the one which began in 2007 never really ended. High levels of unemployment has become endemic, a structural rather than a cyclical issue.
Nonetheless, the markets continue to roar higher, and the chances for a significant pull-back seem about as good as a chicken hatching a coyote. There hasn't been a major decline since August of 2011, and that one was caused by our congress and president nearly letting the government breach the debt ceiling.
The mountains of debt being piled up in Washington are of little concern to Wall Street, though, nor, it appears, to the millions of American who have jobs, or are collecting on one of a myriad of entitlement programs.
It wasn't supposed to work this way, but, for now, it's what we've got as an economy and there's practically nobody arguing against its continued success.
Of those groups getting murdered by the rise of stocks are retirees, who cannot make any money safely, i.e., in fixed income investments, gold and silver bugs and anyone who's not "in."
The question remaining is when these groups capitulate and join the party, will the rug be pulled from under them?
Dow 14,865.14, +62.90 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 3,300.16, +2.91 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,593.37, +5.64 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,234.62, +45.53 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,793,031,500
NYSE Volume 3,476,424,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3663-2761
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 563-25
WTI crude oil: 93.51, -1.13
Gold: 1,564.90, +6.10
Silver: 27.70, +0.044
Thursday, April 11, 2013
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Yes, Newer Highs. Europe. Is. Saved? America Rocks!
After a while, watching the absurdity of the markets, one wonders whether it's even worth bothering. Days like today deserve nothing but a loud "WTF?" in response.
Obama's budget, all $3.78 trillion of it, is DOA. Not even worth a look, seriously. Deficit for fiscal 2014 is only $744 billion. It will never see the light of day.
Money Daily will resume "coverage" as soon as something rational happens (actually, we'll be back tomorrow even though rationality has vanished from most of America).
Dow 14,802.32, +128.86 (0.88%)
NASDAQ 3,297.25, +59.39 (1.83%)
S&P 500 1,587.72, +19.11 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 9,192.79, +104.42 (1.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,150,125
NYSE Volume 3,556,269,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4968-1562
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 483-20 (imbalance?)
WTI crude oil: 94.64, +0.44
Gold: 1,558.80, -27.90
Silver: 27.65, -0.228
Obama's budget, all $3.78 trillion of it, is DOA. Not even worth a look, seriously. Deficit for fiscal 2014 is only $744 billion. It will never see the light of day.
Money Daily will resume "coverage" as soon as something rational happens (actually, we'll be back tomorrow even though rationality has vanished from most of America).
Dow 14,802.32, +128.86 (0.88%)
NASDAQ 3,297.25, +59.39 (1.83%)
S&P 500 1,587.72, +19.11 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 9,192.79, +104.42 (1.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,150,125
NYSE Volume 3,556,269,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4968-1562
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 483-20 (imbalance?)
WTI crude oil: 94.64, +0.44
Gold: 1,558.80, -27.90
Silver: 27.65, -0.228
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Dow Posts Record Close, Despite Market Fail in Final Hour
Well, it took a whole week, but the Dow Jones Industrials made another all-time closing high today.
The S&P was not so lucky, but, was poised for a record close until... get this.. actual selling took place in the final hour of trading, a huge departure from the general, repeating pattern of the past few days, weeks, months, years.
The Dow was up 106 points as the three o'clock witching hour approached, but went in the opposite direction of usual expectations, losing 46 points in the final hour. Likewise, the S&P failed to extend the day-long rally into the close, losing close to half of its gains in the final hour.
Odd, that's not supposed to happen with the Fed relentlessly pumping money into the system, unless... unless... somebody is gaming it. Just who those these gamers are is a matter of general speculation - as are the markets - but there's a very good chance it was the same people who were buying the same stocks in the morning that they were selling in the afternoon.
It's high-stakes day-trading at its very finest.
For the rest of us, especially those invested in gold, silver and other tangible assets, not such game-playing occurs (at least not superficially) if those assets are held closely, as in, buried in your back yard or in a wall safe.
Precious metals saw a significant boost today as the shorts were cleared out in the ponzi-style, ETF funds. It's only a matter of time before the PMs will continue their super-cycle bull run, and, the investors in metals are more than happy to wait, or buy, at what presently are bargain-basement prices, even with today's solid gains factored in.
Take your pick: tangible goods, paper or... bitcoin, a currency that is a threat to the paper, but is currently trading at levels unforeseen. The electronic currency is still in its infancy, but it's making a lot of noise of late, soaring to over $200 today. It's highly misunderstood how bitcoin works. There's maybe .001% of the world's population who really comprehend it, and, at this juncture, that's not enough to inspire confidence. It's day may come, and that day may be sooner rather than later.
The question is how seriously central bankers take it as a threat - as they do silver and gold - and what they're willing to do to defeat it.
In the meantime, President Obama releases his budget (if one can call it such) tomorrow. That ought to be worth a few laughs and plenty of blustering commentary from the do-nothings on Capitol Hill.
Dow 14,673.46, +59.98 (0.41%)
NASDAQ 3,237.86, +15.61 (0.48%)
S&P 500 1,568.61, +5.54 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 9,086.81, +35.22 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,466,549,375
NYSE Volume 3,296,691,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3554-2886 (thin)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 301-31
WTI crude oil: 94.20, +0.84
Gold: 1,586.70, +14.20
Silver: 27.88, +0.743
The S&P was not so lucky, but, was poised for a record close until... get this.. actual selling took place in the final hour of trading, a huge departure from the general, repeating pattern of the past few days, weeks, months, years.
The Dow was up 106 points as the three o'clock witching hour approached, but went in the opposite direction of usual expectations, losing 46 points in the final hour. Likewise, the S&P failed to extend the day-long rally into the close, losing close to half of its gains in the final hour.
Odd, that's not supposed to happen with the Fed relentlessly pumping money into the system, unless... unless... somebody is gaming it. Just who those these gamers are is a matter of general speculation - as are the markets - but there's a very good chance it was the same people who were buying the same stocks in the morning that they were selling in the afternoon.
It's high-stakes day-trading at its very finest.
For the rest of us, especially those invested in gold, silver and other tangible assets, not such game-playing occurs (at least not superficially) if those assets are held closely, as in, buried in your back yard or in a wall safe.
Precious metals saw a significant boost today as the shorts were cleared out in the ponzi-style, ETF funds. It's only a matter of time before the PMs will continue their super-cycle bull run, and, the investors in metals are more than happy to wait, or buy, at what presently are bargain-basement prices, even with today's solid gains factored in.
Take your pick: tangible goods, paper or... bitcoin, a currency that is a threat to the paper, but is currently trading at levels unforeseen. The electronic currency is still in its infancy, but it's making a lot of noise of late, soaring to over $200 today. It's highly misunderstood how bitcoin works. There's maybe .001% of the world's population who really comprehend it, and, at this juncture, that's not enough to inspire confidence. It's day may come, and that day may be sooner rather than later.
The question is how seriously central bankers take it as a threat - as they do silver and gold - and what they're willing to do to defeat it.
In the meantime, President Obama releases his budget (if one can call it such) tomorrow. That ought to be worth a few laughs and plenty of blustering commentary from the do-nothings on Capitol Hill.
Dow 14,673.46, +59.98 (0.41%)
NASDAQ 3,237.86, +15.61 (0.48%)
S&P 500 1,568.61, +5.54 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 9,086.81, +35.22 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,466,549,375
NYSE Volume 3,296,691,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3554-2886 (thin)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 301-31
WTI crude oil: 94.20, +0.84
Gold: 1,586.70, +14.20
Silver: 27.88, +0.743
Monday, April 8, 2013
Stocks Advance on Lowest Volume of Year
Just in case you're one of those "converts" awaiting to Buy the Dip, you'd be best advised to do so before noon in US markets.
As has been the case for the last four+ years, stocks will simply not go down in any depreciable manner until Ben Bernanke and other central banks stop the presses printing endless amounts of cash on a regularly scheduled basis.
In the absence of any material news - or volume, for that matter - stocks nose-dived out of the gate, fell to the lows of the day around the lunch hour and then proceeded to levitate into the close, keeping alive the day-trading dream pattern of up-down-up-down through a thirteenth straight session.
That stocks rose was certainly not the story today. The headline belonged to volume, which, despite being seminally weak over the past two years, today was the lightest of 2013. That's really saying something, specifically, that this rally is nothing but vapor, because without solid volume, all rallies are entirely suspect and easily torn down.
With little invested at current levels, traders are cautious and will exit at the first signs of trouble. That line of thinking, of course is based upon years of data and research which probably doesn't apply to the current market, which is completely an apparition, a fraud, the manipulated product of excess liquidity in the system which has nowhere to go but into risk assets.
Based on the volume figures from the past six, twelve or 18 months, today's numbers indicate that not only are individual investors completely out of the market and not coming back, but even seasoned investors are fleeing from stocks in droves, leaving the algos and computers to trade against each other. Eventually, a system like this must fail, though predicting the date of such eventuality is a fool's game.
Trading in thin markets are likewise the work of rookies, speculators and pros, though nobody from any group can claim a level of expertise that would lead directly to profitable trades, except for extremely short term or hedged activity.
Today's volume figures are so horrifyingly low that one might suspect the end is near, though that end has been in the headlights for some time now and just like this market, continues to present itself as a mirage on the horizon.
A day will come when the skies clear and the end becomes tangible, touchable and irreversible. Those who have traded in honest markets in the past are patiently awaiting that day.
Dow 14,613.48, +48.23 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,222.25, +18.39 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,563.07, +9.79 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 9,046.87, +46.62 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,294,793,750
NYSE Volume 2,927,141,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4180-2254
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 244-44
WTI crude oil: 93.36, +0.66
Gold: 1,572.50, -3.40
Silver: 27.14, -0.082
As has been the case for the last four+ years, stocks will simply not go down in any depreciable manner until Ben Bernanke and other central banks stop the presses printing endless amounts of cash on a regularly scheduled basis.
In the absence of any material news - or volume, for that matter - stocks nose-dived out of the gate, fell to the lows of the day around the lunch hour and then proceeded to levitate into the close, keeping alive the day-trading dream pattern of up-down-up-down through a thirteenth straight session.
That stocks rose was certainly not the story today. The headline belonged to volume, which, despite being seminally weak over the past two years, today was the lightest of 2013. That's really saying something, specifically, that this rally is nothing but vapor, because without solid volume, all rallies are entirely suspect and easily torn down.
With little invested at current levels, traders are cautious and will exit at the first signs of trouble. That line of thinking, of course is based upon years of data and research which probably doesn't apply to the current market, which is completely an apparition, a fraud, the manipulated product of excess liquidity in the system which has nowhere to go but into risk assets.
Based on the volume figures from the past six, twelve or 18 months, today's numbers indicate that not only are individual investors completely out of the market and not coming back, but even seasoned investors are fleeing from stocks in droves, leaving the algos and computers to trade against each other. Eventually, a system like this must fail, though predicting the date of such eventuality is a fool's game.
Trading in thin markets are likewise the work of rookies, speculators and pros, though nobody from any group can claim a level of expertise that would lead directly to profitable trades, except for extremely short term or hedged activity.
Today's volume figures are so horrifyingly low that one might suspect the end is near, though that end has been in the headlights for some time now and just like this market, continues to present itself as a mirage on the horizon.
A day will come when the skies clear and the end becomes tangible, touchable and irreversible. Those who have traded in honest markets in the past are patiently awaiting that day.
Dow 14,613.48, +48.23 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,222.25, +18.39 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,563.07, +9.79 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 9,046.87, +46.62 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,294,793,750
NYSE Volume 2,927,141,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4180-2254
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 244-44
WTI crude oil: 93.36, +0.66
Gold: 1,572.50, -3.40
Silver: 27.14, -0.082
Friday, April 5, 2013
March Payrolls Huge Miss; Economy a Pack of Lies, Rolling Over
Let's just get one thing straight: there are lies, statistics and more lies in their interpretation, and even worse prevarication when it comes to market response.
When today's March Non-Farm Payroll data was rolled out at 8:30 am EDT - an hour prior to the opening bell - the response in the futures was automatic and immediate.
On expectations that the recovering US economy was to have produced 197,000 new jobs during the month, the actual number - 88,000 - was a miss of such enormous magnitude that it begs for perspective.
The miss was the worst since December 2009, when the economy was still taking baby steps toward said recovery and it was the lowest number of new jobs since June of last year. Incredibly, the unemployment rate fell to 7.6%, though this was due to 663,000 individuals dropping out of the labor force, sending the labor participation rate to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979, with a record 90 million Americans (aged 16 and up) out of the labor force.
Surely with numbers like these, the United States is on a sustainable path... to complete disintegration, anarchy and poverty. There simply is no way to get around how poorly the economy is performing, a full five years and three months after it entered recession in December 2007, and four years after it supposedly exited that recession (June 2009).
Whether or not one believes we ever exited the Great Recession (or, as some call it, the Greater Depression) is merely a matter of semantics, the truth is that the economy has been and is going nowhere fast. Growth is a chimera, more statistical noise boosted by inflation; jobs have been hard to come by and those that are available are mostly of the entry-level, burger-flipping variety. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to pump $85 billion into the banking system each and every month, and still, nothing.
The talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg tried to blame it on everything from the weather to the sequester to the tax increase imposed in January to, probably, the phase of the moon, but the reality is that we have structural issues that are generational, worldwide and widely the cause of the gross inequalities between rich and poor, with the crony capitalists - in cahoots with cheap, shiftless politicians - pushing more and more debt onto a system already overburdened with it.
Anyone who purports to tell you that the economy is improving, ask them how and why, and wait for the usual non-answers that housing is improving (it's not), that there are more jobs (marginally, there are, but not enough to keep up with population growth) or, the usual, "this is America, and we are great," complete failure response.
The stock market took a huge dive at the open, the Dow losing as many as 172 points, the S&P off by 21 and the NASDAQ down a whopping 58 points before the riggers came in and bid up the whole complex - especially ramping it in the final half hour - to close down with losses erased by roughly two-thirds.
We are in a sad, sorry state of affairs, when what used to be the most efficient, dynamic markets in the world are now nothing more than a crooked casino, run by oligarchs, bankers and unseen hands that are both out of control and above the law.
Significantly, gold and silver were both up sharply on the day, as the flight to safety finally made an appearance.
This economy is rolling over, like a sick patient who hasn't received the correct treatment. We're about to go into a tailspin that will make 2008 look like a casual stroll along the beach. The bankers, politicians and the media continues to spin the happy "recovery" meme, when all data shows the economy going in reverse. Data-wise, the US was a woeful 0-for-6 the past eight days, with the Chicago PMI missing the mark, along with the ISM index, the ISM services index, the ADP employment report, initial unemployment claims and finally, today's non-farm payrolls.
How many misses and bad data points will it take for the politicians to admit their policies are failures, the media to admit they are blind and the bankers admit they've been robbing common people blind since time immemorial?
Nobody should be holding their breath waiting, that's for sure.
Dow 14,565.25, -40.86 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,203.86, -21.12 (0.65%)
S&P 500 1,553.28, -6.70 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,000.24, -27.59 (0.31%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,608,289,875
NYSE Volume 3,788,675,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2866-3582
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 118-81
WTI crude oil: 92.70, -0.56
Gold: 1,575.90, +23.50
Silver: 27.22, +0.453
When today's March Non-Farm Payroll data was rolled out at 8:30 am EDT - an hour prior to the opening bell - the response in the futures was automatic and immediate.
On expectations that the recovering US economy was to have produced 197,000 new jobs during the month, the actual number - 88,000 - was a miss of such enormous magnitude that it begs for perspective.
The miss was the worst since December 2009, when the economy was still taking baby steps toward said recovery and it was the lowest number of new jobs since June of last year. Incredibly, the unemployment rate fell to 7.6%, though this was due to 663,000 individuals dropping out of the labor force, sending the labor participation rate to 63.3%, the lowest level since 1979, with a record 90 million Americans (aged 16 and up) out of the labor force.
Surely with numbers like these, the United States is on a sustainable path... to complete disintegration, anarchy and poverty. There simply is no way to get around how poorly the economy is performing, a full five years and three months after it entered recession in December 2007, and four years after it supposedly exited that recession (June 2009).
Whether or not one believes we ever exited the Great Recession (or, as some call it, the Greater Depression) is merely a matter of semantics, the truth is that the economy has been and is going nowhere fast. Growth is a chimera, more statistical noise boosted by inflation; jobs have been hard to come by and those that are available are mostly of the entry-level, burger-flipping variety. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve continues to pump $85 billion into the banking system each and every month, and still, nothing.
The talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg tried to blame it on everything from the weather to the sequester to the tax increase imposed in January to, probably, the phase of the moon, but the reality is that we have structural issues that are generational, worldwide and widely the cause of the gross inequalities between rich and poor, with the crony capitalists - in cahoots with cheap, shiftless politicians - pushing more and more debt onto a system already overburdened with it.
Anyone who purports to tell you that the economy is improving, ask them how and why, and wait for the usual non-answers that housing is improving (it's not), that there are more jobs (marginally, there are, but not enough to keep up with population growth) or, the usual, "this is America, and we are great," complete failure response.
The stock market took a huge dive at the open, the Dow losing as many as 172 points, the S&P off by 21 and the NASDAQ down a whopping 58 points before the riggers came in and bid up the whole complex - especially ramping it in the final half hour - to close down with losses erased by roughly two-thirds.
We are in a sad, sorry state of affairs, when what used to be the most efficient, dynamic markets in the world are now nothing more than a crooked casino, run by oligarchs, bankers and unseen hands that are both out of control and above the law.
Significantly, gold and silver were both up sharply on the day, as the flight to safety finally made an appearance.
This economy is rolling over, like a sick patient who hasn't received the correct treatment. We're about to go into a tailspin that will make 2008 look like a casual stroll along the beach. The bankers, politicians and the media continues to spin the happy "recovery" meme, when all data shows the economy going in reverse. Data-wise, the US was a woeful 0-for-6 the past eight days, with the Chicago PMI missing the mark, along with the ISM index, the ISM services index, the ADP employment report, initial unemployment claims and finally, today's non-farm payrolls.
How many misses and bad data points will it take for the politicians to admit their policies are failures, the media to admit they are blind and the bankers admit they've been robbing common people blind since time immemorial?
Nobody should be holding their breath waiting, that's for sure.
Dow 14,565.25, -40.86 (0.28%)
NASDAQ 3,203.86, -21.12 (0.65%)
S&P 500 1,553.28, -6.70 (0.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,000.24, -27.59 (0.31%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,608,289,875
NYSE Volume 3,788,675,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2866-3582
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 118-81
WTI crude oil: 92.70, -0.56
Gold: 1,575.90, +23.50
Silver: 27.22, +0.453
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