More questions than answers in the jumbled mess of trading today.
Stocks opened down rather sharply and stayed in the red the balance of the session, but, as usual, the bulls came back in the late stages to push the Dow from a 74-point loss to almost unchanged.
Both JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Wells-Fargo (WFC) posted positive first quarter results prior to the opening bell, but were sold off in the regular session.
Aside from the usual hijinks in stocks, the real story was in commodities, where gold and silver were battered, sending them to two-year lows.
The questions surrounding the gold trade are thus:
Did Goldman Sachs - which lowered their forecasts just days ago on gold - have anything to do with it or have advance knowledge? (Probably.)
Was the forced selling of gold from the Cyprus central bank the cause or an effect?
Understandable that gold was rocked down, but silver fell even more, by percentage. Why?
The best news of the day came from the oil pits, where crude traded just above $90 for a time today and closed down more than 2%. A cursory glance at oil prices over the past year show the downtrend fully in place. Consequently, gas at the pump is down 36 cents from a year ago, on average, and should drop even more in coming weeks with today's drop.
The commodities, along with the string of recent misses in US economic data (today, retail sales were a stinker), may be telling the market something which it does not wish to hear, setting up a correction that is long overdue. Leading that concept is the huge imbalance in the advance-decline line, given the smallish losses.
Of course, that's just the kind of thinking that leads to losses in this liquidity-fed environment, but, then again, how long can this bull run without a break and without breaking down? The current bull market is just over 48 months, and the general length of bull markets is somewhere between 44 and 62 weeks. Time may be running short, or , is this time different?
The word from the Fed is simple. Stay long. Stay strong.
Ah, conventional wisdom is so... simple.
Dow 14,865.06, -0.08 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 3,294.95, -5.21 (0.16%)
S&P 500 1,588.85, -4.52 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 9,188.11, -45.91 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,459,983,750
NYSE Volume 3,534,229,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2478-3940
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 260-53
WTI crude oil: 91.29, -2.22
Gold: 1,501.40, -63.50
Silver: 26.33, -1.366
Friday, April 12, 2013
Thursday, April 11, 2013
New Highs All Around... Again
Can it really be this easy?
Apparently, investing has become more sport than discipline, as the major indices drove again to new highs - the NASDAQ bounding over 3300, with the Dow, the Comp. and S&P 500 setting new all-time record closes.
In addition to the Fed's constant $85 billion/month put, there are other factors at work. Money is pouring out of Japan and Europe since the Cyprus incident and the BOJ's experimental monetary policy that makes Bernanke's monetizing of US debt appear paltry.
The Japanese central bank, while openly buying all the government issued treasuries it can, is also tinkering in the open markets, buying ETFs and REITs, especially.
If Bernanke gets a whiff of this kind of action, US markets could be buffeted with even more stimulus by the Fed, openly buying stocks to levitate the equity markets higher.
When it will end is anybody's guess, but, despite some Fed officials openly saying - in yesterday's leaked February Fed minutes - that they'd like to taper the bond purchases this year and possibly end them by year's end, Friday's non-farm payroll and today's news that first quarter PC shipments fell by 13.9% globally, the worst decline since records began being kept in 1994.
While Wall Street is flying high, the real economy may not be quite so robust. Many argue that the US is still in a recession, and that the one which began in 2007 never really ended. High levels of unemployment has become endemic, a structural rather than a cyclical issue.
Nonetheless, the markets continue to roar higher, and the chances for a significant pull-back seem about as good as a chicken hatching a coyote. There hasn't been a major decline since August of 2011, and that one was caused by our congress and president nearly letting the government breach the debt ceiling.
The mountains of debt being piled up in Washington are of little concern to Wall Street, though, nor, it appears, to the millions of American who have jobs, or are collecting on one of a myriad of entitlement programs.
It wasn't supposed to work this way, but, for now, it's what we've got as an economy and there's practically nobody arguing against its continued success.
Of those groups getting murdered by the rise of stocks are retirees, who cannot make any money safely, i.e., in fixed income investments, gold and silver bugs and anyone who's not "in."
The question remaining is when these groups capitulate and join the party, will the rug be pulled from under them?
Dow 14,865.14, +62.90 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 3,300.16, +2.91 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,593.37, +5.64 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,234.62, +45.53 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,793,031,500
NYSE Volume 3,476,424,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3663-2761
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 563-25
WTI crude oil: 93.51, -1.13
Gold: 1,564.90, +6.10
Silver: 27.70, +0.044
Apparently, investing has become more sport than discipline, as the major indices drove again to new highs - the NASDAQ bounding over 3300, with the Dow, the Comp. and S&P 500 setting new all-time record closes.
In addition to the Fed's constant $85 billion/month put, there are other factors at work. Money is pouring out of Japan and Europe since the Cyprus incident and the BOJ's experimental monetary policy that makes Bernanke's monetizing of US debt appear paltry.
The Japanese central bank, while openly buying all the government issued treasuries it can, is also tinkering in the open markets, buying ETFs and REITs, especially.
If Bernanke gets a whiff of this kind of action, US markets could be buffeted with even more stimulus by the Fed, openly buying stocks to levitate the equity markets higher.
When it will end is anybody's guess, but, despite some Fed officials openly saying - in yesterday's leaked February Fed minutes - that they'd like to taper the bond purchases this year and possibly end them by year's end, Friday's non-farm payroll and today's news that first quarter PC shipments fell by 13.9% globally, the worst decline since records began being kept in 1994.
While Wall Street is flying high, the real economy may not be quite so robust. Many argue that the US is still in a recession, and that the one which began in 2007 never really ended. High levels of unemployment has become endemic, a structural rather than a cyclical issue.
Nonetheless, the markets continue to roar higher, and the chances for a significant pull-back seem about as good as a chicken hatching a coyote. There hasn't been a major decline since August of 2011, and that one was caused by our congress and president nearly letting the government breach the debt ceiling.
The mountains of debt being piled up in Washington are of little concern to Wall Street, though, nor, it appears, to the millions of American who have jobs, or are collecting on one of a myriad of entitlement programs.
It wasn't supposed to work this way, but, for now, it's what we've got as an economy and there's practically nobody arguing against its continued success.
Of those groups getting murdered by the rise of stocks are retirees, who cannot make any money safely, i.e., in fixed income investments, gold and silver bugs and anyone who's not "in."
The question remaining is when these groups capitulate and join the party, will the rug be pulled from under them?
Dow 14,865.14, +62.90 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 3,300.16, +2.91 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,593.37, +5.64 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,234.62, +45.53 (0.50%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,793,031,500
NYSE Volume 3,476,424,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3663-2761
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 563-25
WTI crude oil: 93.51, -1.13
Gold: 1,564.90, +6.10
Silver: 27.70, +0.044
Wednesday, April 10, 2013
Yes, Newer Highs. Europe. Is. Saved? America Rocks!
After a while, watching the absurdity of the markets, one wonders whether it's even worth bothering. Days like today deserve nothing but a loud "WTF?" in response.
Obama's budget, all $3.78 trillion of it, is DOA. Not even worth a look, seriously. Deficit for fiscal 2014 is only $744 billion. It will never see the light of day.
Money Daily will resume "coverage" as soon as something rational happens (actually, we'll be back tomorrow even though rationality has vanished from most of America).
Dow 14,802.32, +128.86 (0.88%)
NASDAQ 3,297.25, +59.39 (1.83%)
S&P 500 1,587.72, +19.11 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 9,192.79, +104.42 (1.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,150,125
NYSE Volume 3,556,269,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4968-1562
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 483-20 (imbalance?)
WTI crude oil: 94.64, +0.44
Gold: 1,558.80, -27.90
Silver: 27.65, -0.228
Obama's budget, all $3.78 trillion of it, is DOA. Not even worth a look, seriously. Deficit for fiscal 2014 is only $744 billion. It will never see the light of day.
Money Daily will resume "coverage" as soon as something rational happens (actually, we'll be back tomorrow even though rationality has vanished from most of America).
Dow 14,802.32, +128.86 (0.88%)
NASDAQ 3,297.25, +59.39 (1.83%)
S&P 500 1,587.72, +19.11 (1.22%)
NYSE Composite 9,192.79, +104.42 (1.15%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,715,150,125
NYSE Volume 3,556,269,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4968-1562
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 483-20 (imbalance?)
WTI crude oil: 94.64, +0.44
Gold: 1,558.80, -27.90
Silver: 27.65, -0.228
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Dow Posts Record Close, Despite Market Fail in Final Hour
Well, it took a whole week, but the Dow Jones Industrials made another all-time closing high today.
The S&P was not so lucky, but, was poised for a record close until... get this.. actual selling took place in the final hour of trading, a huge departure from the general, repeating pattern of the past few days, weeks, months, years.
The Dow was up 106 points as the three o'clock witching hour approached, but went in the opposite direction of usual expectations, losing 46 points in the final hour. Likewise, the S&P failed to extend the day-long rally into the close, losing close to half of its gains in the final hour.
Odd, that's not supposed to happen with the Fed relentlessly pumping money into the system, unless... unless... somebody is gaming it. Just who those these gamers are is a matter of general speculation - as are the markets - but there's a very good chance it was the same people who were buying the same stocks in the morning that they were selling in the afternoon.
It's high-stakes day-trading at its very finest.
For the rest of us, especially those invested in gold, silver and other tangible assets, not such game-playing occurs (at least not superficially) if those assets are held closely, as in, buried in your back yard or in a wall safe.
Precious metals saw a significant boost today as the shorts were cleared out in the ponzi-style, ETF funds. It's only a matter of time before the PMs will continue their super-cycle bull run, and, the investors in metals are more than happy to wait, or buy, at what presently are bargain-basement prices, even with today's solid gains factored in.
Take your pick: tangible goods, paper or... bitcoin, a currency that is a threat to the paper, but is currently trading at levels unforeseen. The electronic currency is still in its infancy, but it's making a lot of noise of late, soaring to over $200 today. It's highly misunderstood how bitcoin works. There's maybe .001% of the world's population who really comprehend it, and, at this juncture, that's not enough to inspire confidence. It's day may come, and that day may be sooner rather than later.
The question is how seriously central bankers take it as a threat - as they do silver and gold - and what they're willing to do to defeat it.
In the meantime, President Obama releases his budget (if one can call it such) tomorrow. That ought to be worth a few laughs and plenty of blustering commentary from the do-nothings on Capitol Hill.
Dow 14,673.46, +59.98 (0.41%)
NASDAQ 3,237.86, +15.61 (0.48%)
S&P 500 1,568.61, +5.54 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 9,086.81, +35.22 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,466,549,375
NYSE Volume 3,296,691,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3554-2886 (thin)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 301-31
WTI crude oil: 94.20, +0.84
Gold: 1,586.70, +14.20
Silver: 27.88, +0.743
The S&P was not so lucky, but, was poised for a record close until... get this.. actual selling took place in the final hour of trading, a huge departure from the general, repeating pattern of the past few days, weeks, months, years.
The Dow was up 106 points as the three o'clock witching hour approached, but went in the opposite direction of usual expectations, losing 46 points in the final hour. Likewise, the S&P failed to extend the day-long rally into the close, losing close to half of its gains in the final hour.
Odd, that's not supposed to happen with the Fed relentlessly pumping money into the system, unless... unless... somebody is gaming it. Just who those these gamers are is a matter of general speculation - as are the markets - but there's a very good chance it was the same people who were buying the same stocks in the morning that they were selling in the afternoon.
It's high-stakes day-trading at its very finest.
For the rest of us, especially those invested in gold, silver and other tangible assets, not such game-playing occurs (at least not superficially) if those assets are held closely, as in, buried in your back yard or in a wall safe.
Precious metals saw a significant boost today as the shorts were cleared out in the ponzi-style, ETF funds. It's only a matter of time before the PMs will continue their super-cycle bull run, and, the investors in metals are more than happy to wait, or buy, at what presently are bargain-basement prices, even with today's solid gains factored in.
Take your pick: tangible goods, paper or... bitcoin, a currency that is a threat to the paper, but is currently trading at levels unforeseen. The electronic currency is still in its infancy, but it's making a lot of noise of late, soaring to over $200 today. It's highly misunderstood how bitcoin works. There's maybe .001% of the world's population who really comprehend it, and, at this juncture, that's not enough to inspire confidence. It's day may come, and that day may be sooner rather than later.
The question is how seriously central bankers take it as a threat - as they do silver and gold - and what they're willing to do to defeat it.
In the meantime, President Obama releases his budget (if one can call it such) tomorrow. That ought to be worth a few laughs and plenty of blustering commentary from the do-nothings on Capitol Hill.
Dow 14,673.46, +59.98 (0.41%)
NASDAQ 3,237.86, +15.61 (0.48%)
S&P 500 1,568.61, +5.54 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 9,086.81, +35.22 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,466,549,375
NYSE Volume 3,296,691,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3554-2886 (thin)
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 301-31
WTI crude oil: 94.20, +0.84
Gold: 1,586.70, +14.20
Silver: 27.88, +0.743
Monday, April 8, 2013
Stocks Advance on Lowest Volume of Year
Just in case you're one of those "converts" awaiting to Buy the Dip, you'd be best advised to do so before noon in US markets.
As has been the case for the last four+ years, stocks will simply not go down in any depreciable manner until Ben Bernanke and other central banks stop the presses printing endless amounts of cash on a regularly scheduled basis.
In the absence of any material news - or volume, for that matter - stocks nose-dived out of the gate, fell to the lows of the day around the lunch hour and then proceeded to levitate into the close, keeping alive the day-trading dream pattern of up-down-up-down through a thirteenth straight session.
That stocks rose was certainly not the story today. The headline belonged to volume, which, despite being seminally weak over the past two years, today was the lightest of 2013. That's really saying something, specifically, that this rally is nothing but vapor, because without solid volume, all rallies are entirely suspect and easily torn down.
With little invested at current levels, traders are cautious and will exit at the first signs of trouble. That line of thinking, of course is based upon years of data and research which probably doesn't apply to the current market, which is completely an apparition, a fraud, the manipulated product of excess liquidity in the system which has nowhere to go but into risk assets.
Based on the volume figures from the past six, twelve or 18 months, today's numbers indicate that not only are individual investors completely out of the market and not coming back, but even seasoned investors are fleeing from stocks in droves, leaving the algos and computers to trade against each other. Eventually, a system like this must fail, though predicting the date of such eventuality is a fool's game.
Trading in thin markets are likewise the work of rookies, speculators and pros, though nobody from any group can claim a level of expertise that would lead directly to profitable trades, except for extremely short term or hedged activity.
Today's volume figures are so horrifyingly low that one might suspect the end is near, though that end has been in the headlights for some time now and just like this market, continues to present itself as a mirage on the horizon.
A day will come when the skies clear and the end becomes tangible, touchable and irreversible. Those who have traded in honest markets in the past are patiently awaiting that day.
Dow 14,613.48, +48.23 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,222.25, +18.39 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,563.07, +9.79 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 9,046.87, +46.62 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,294,793,750
NYSE Volume 2,927,141,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4180-2254
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 244-44
WTI crude oil: 93.36, +0.66
Gold: 1,572.50, -3.40
Silver: 27.14, -0.082
As has been the case for the last four+ years, stocks will simply not go down in any depreciable manner until Ben Bernanke and other central banks stop the presses printing endless amounts of cash on a regularly scheduled basis.
In the absence of any material news - or volume, for that matter - stocks nose-dived out of the gate, fell to the lows of the day around the lunch hour and then proceeded to levitate into the close, keeping alive the day-trading dream pattern of up-down-up-down through a thirteenth straight session.
That stocks rose was certainly not the story today. The headline belonged to volume, which, despite being seminally weak over the past two years, today was the lightest of 2013. That's really saying something, specifically, that this rally is nothing but vapor, because without solid volume, all rallies are entirely suspect and easily torn down.
With little invested at current levels, traders are cautious and will exit at the first signs of trouble. That line of thinking, of course is based upon years of data and research which probably doesn't apply to the current market, which is completely an apparition, a fraud, the manipulated product of excess liquidity in the system which has nowhere to go but into risk assets.
Based on the volume figures from the past six, twelve or 18 months, today's numbers indicate that not only are individual investors completely out of the market and not coming back, but even seasoned investors are fleeing from stocks in droves, leaving the algos and computers to trade against each other. Eventually, a system like this must fail, though predicting the date of such eventuality is a fool's game.
Trading in thin markets are likewise the work of rookies, speculators and pros, though nobody from any group can claim a level of expertise that would lead directly to profitable trades, except for extremely short term or hedged activity.
Today's volume figures are so horrifyingly low that one might suspect the end is near, though that end has been in the headlights for some time now and just like this market, continues to present itself as a mirage on the horizon.
A day will come when the skies clear and the end becomes tangible, touchable and irreversible. Those who have traded in honest markets in the past are patiently awaiting that day.
Dow 14,613.48, +48.23 (0.33%)
NASDAQ 3,222.25, +18.39 (0.57%)
S&P 500 1,563.07, +9.79 (0.63%)
NYSE Composite 9,046.87, +46.62 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,294,793,750
NYSE Volume 2,927,141,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4180-2254
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 244-44
WTI crude oil: 93.36, +0.66
Gold: 1,572.50, -3.40
Silver: 27.14, -0.082
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