You'd never think that a man turning down chairmanship of the Federal Reserve could be such a positive development, but that's exactly what sent stocks soaring today, as Larry Summers announced - in a letter to the president - that he was withdrawing his name for consideration.
It's actually another bit of pretzel logic at play, because while Mr. Summers is the ultimate insider, some folks on the inside also thought he is a hawkish sort in terms of economic policy (how misguided!), and would be likely to pull back QE quicker than most other nominees to succeed chairman Ben Bernanke.
Thus, with fear of the economic spigot being turned off being muted by his withdrawal from consideration, for now, at least, the punchbowl that the Fed so lavishly entertains its Wall Street patrons has been kept in placed and fully spiked.
That, and a severe lack of volume (again, old story), led stocks to gallop out of the gate on Monday, drifting a bit to the downside in the afternoon, with the NASDAQ being pulled down by Apple (AAPL), whose shine has lost much of its luster since the untimely death of founder Steve Jobs. Apple is no longer innovative, forward-thinking or focused on individuality; it is becoming just another greedy corporate factory, outsourcing jobs to China while reaping huge profits here in the USA. The best days of Apple as a company are long past.
Otherwise, the shootings in Washington, DC, did little to stem the orderly flow, though one might be somewhat suspect of the rally continuing, with a FOMC announcement on Wednesday and economic data floundering.
The Empire Manufacturing Index (New York) fell to 6.3 for September after posting a downwardly-revised 8.2 in August, and industrial production missed expectations for the fifth straight month, registering a flaccid increase of jut 0.4%, though even that ws better than the July reading of 0.0%. August Capacity Utilization remained fairly stagnant at 77.8%. It was 77.6% in July.
With Summers and Syria off the front pages, the market can now go back to handicapping the size of the Fed taper to be announced on Wednesday; most estimates are for the Fed to reduce bond purchases by $10 billion a month, mostly in treasuries. They have little choice but to taper, as they are gobbling up more than a third of all issuance by Treasury, and, despite rumors to the contrary, the US Treasury cannot continue borrowing ad infinitum.
Well, maybe not. Infinity is, actually, a long way off.
Dow 15,494.78, -118.72 (0.77%)
Nasdaq 3,717.85, -4.34 (0.12%)
S&P 500 1,697.60, +9.61 (0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 2.87%, -0.02
NYSE Volume 3,344,441,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,476,599,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4173-2429
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 430-38 (imbalance)
WTI crude oil: 106.59, -1.62
Gold: 1,317.80, +9.20
Silver: 22.01, +0.289
Monday, September 16, 2013
Friday, September 13, 2013
Retail Sales Miss, Consumer Sentiment Negative, Stocks Move Higher
Well, that's what happens when computers are doing 80% of the trading, of which there isn't much, anyway.
Prior to the market open - giving the insiders plenty of time torig set their positions, retail sales for August were reported to have risen 0.2% (in some alternate universe) on expectations of a gain of 0.5% (in an even more bizarre universe).
Stocks took a bit of a dip at the open, but were revived when University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment registered a 76.8, on expectations of 81, after showing 82.1 in August. It was the biggest miss in the history of the survey and the lowest reading in five months.
Naturally, stocks recovered and the Dow quickly shot up to about a 70-point gain and stayed their the rest of the session.
It was one of the best weeks of recent memory for the indices. The Dow gained 453 points for the week, while the S&P was up almost two percent, posting a gain of 32.82 points. The NASDAQ was the laggard, up 62.17 or 1.70%.
All of this makes perfect sense when one understands that the average stock position is held for something like seven seconds and that volume was so low today that it scarcely registered.
Then again, Twitter tweeted that it had filed papers for an IPO. The initial valuation is rumored to be around $10 billion, but, Twitter, as far as can be surmised, is not a profitable enterprise. Shades of the dotcom bubble.
Seems there's still some summer remaining at the Hamptons.
Dow 15,376.06, +75.42 (0.49%)
Nasdaq 3,722.18, +6.22 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,687.99, +4.57 (0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 2.90%, -0.01
NYSE Volume 2,931,141,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,421,610,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3975-2516
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 175-75
WTI crude oil: 108.21, -0.39
Gold: 1,308.60, -22.00
Silver: 21.72, 0.429
Prior to the market open - giving the insiders plenty of time to
Stocks took a bit of a dip at the open, but were revived when University of Michigan's September consumer sentiment registered a 76.8, on expectations of 81, after showing 82.1 in August. It was the biggest miss in the history of the survey and the lowest reading in five months.
Naturally, stocks recovered and the Dow quickly shot up to about a 70-point gain and stayed their the rest of the session.
It was one of the best weeks of recent memory for the indices. The Dow gained 453 points for the week, while the S&P was up almost two percent, posting a gain of 32.82 points. The NASDAQ was the laggard, up 62.17 or 1.70%.
All of this makes perfect sense when one understands that the average stock position is held for something like seven seconds and that volume was so low today that it scarcely registered.
Then again, Twitter tweeted that it had filed papers for an IPO. The initial valuation is rumored to be around $10 billion, but, Twitter, as far as can be surmised, is not a profitable enterprise. Shades of the dotcom bubble.
Seems there's still some summer remaining at the Hamptons.
Dow 15,376.06, +75.42 (0.49%)
Nasdaq 3,722.18, +6.22 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,687.99, +4.57 (0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 2.90%, -0.01
NYSE Volume 2,931,141,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,421,610,875
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3975-2516
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 175-75
WTI crude oil: 108.21, -0.39
Gold: 1,308.60, -22.00
Silver: 21.72, 0.429
Thursday, September 12, 2013
Dull Day for Stocks; So Everybody Sold Their Gold and Silver
It doesn't get much duller than today's action, but Friday, Monday and Tuesday - leading up to the FOMC announcement Wednesday - may qualify as even duller.
There's nothing pushing markets in either direction presently, but that will change soon, as the Fed announces (or doesn't) tapering of their monthly bond purchases and politicians in Washington begin the annual mud-slinging that so defines the budget and debt ceiling process.
For today, however, the Dow ended a string of three straight sessions in which it gained over 100 points and the S&P ended a string of seven consecutive days of gains.
Unemployment claims came in far lower than expectations, but the Labor Department said it was due to a couple of states faulty reporting and changes in methodology, so the market simply ignored what was an outlying, absurd number, which we won't even bother to post.
Gold and silver had their worst day in more than two months, the precious metals giving up most of their recent gains. One could supposedly blame that selloff on the cooling of tensions over Syria, but, then why didn't crude oil fall as well?
Not everything correlates perfectly anymore.
Get ready for fireworks the last two weeks of the month and especially on October 1, when the Affordable Care Act (ACA, ObamaCare) opens exchanges for individuals without coverage and, at the same time, the government might shut down. Those two occurring at the same time are mutually exclusive, so we'll side with the government shutdown and hope it lasts into the next century or thereabout.
We all could do with a LOT less government.
Dow 15,300.64, -25.96 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 3,715.97, -9.04 (0.24%)
S&P 500 1,683.42, -5.71 (0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 2.91%, -0.01
NYSE Volume 3,331,375,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,610,354,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2253-4282
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 261-71
WTI crude oil: 108.60, +1.04
Gold: 1,330.60, -33.20
Silver: 22.15, -1.023
There's nothing pushing markets in either direction presently, but that will change soon, as the Fed announces (or doesn't) tapering of their monthly bond purchases and politicians in Washington begin the annual mud-slinging that so defines the budget and debt ceiling process.
For today, however, the Dow ended a string of three straight sessions in which it gained over 100 points and the S&P ended a string of seven consecutive days of gains.
Unemployment claims came in far lower than expectations, but the Labor Department said it was due to a couple of states faulty reporting and changes in methodology, so the market simply ignored what was an outlying, absurd number, which we won't even bother to post.
Gold and silver had their worst day in more than two months, the precious metals giving up most of their recent gains. One could supposedly blame that selloff on the cooling of tensions over Syria, but, then why didn't crude oil fall as well?
Not everything correlates perfectly anymore.
Get ready for fireworks the last two weeks of the month and especially on October 1, when the Affordable Care Act (ACA, ObamaCare) opens exchanges for individuals without coverage and, at the same time, the government might shut down. Those two occurring at the same time are mutually exclusive, so we'll side with the government shutdown and hope it lasts into the next century or thereabout.
We all could do with a LOT less government.
Dow 15,300.64, -25.96 (0.17%)
Nasdaq 3,715.97, -9.04 (0.24%)
S&P 500 1,683.42, -5.71 (0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 2.91%, -0.01
NYSE Volume 3,331,375,750
Nasdaq Volume 1,610,354,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2253-4282
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 261-71
WTI crude oil: 108.60, +1.04
Gold: 1,330.60, -33.20
Silver: 22.15, -1.023
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
President Backs Cautiously Away from Syria; Markets Exultant
Tuesday night's address to the nation was - for lack of a better term - illusory.
While President Obummer tried his best to appear calm and in control, he was anything but. Russia's Vladimir Putin had outmaneuvered him on the Syria strike issue by proposing that Syria put its chemical weapons under supervision of international parties.
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives was backing far, far away from the unpopular choice to attack Syria, "in a measured way," as Secretary of State John Kerry might put it. A no vote on whether to give the president the authority to attack Syria was all but certain in the House and might have faltered in the Senate as well.
Thus, laughably, the president advised congress to delay its vote on authorization for use of military force for two weeks. Issue settled. Syria will not be assaulted by US arms, the president saves some face and congress gets off the hook as well. There probably will never be a vote on authorization. The Syria chemical attacks, which the administration so vociferously denounced as brutal, heinous, inhume and so outside the realm of civilized conduct that the Syrian government needed to be punished for them, will be back page news by the end of tomorrow so that congress and the president can move onto what they were trying to cover up with a war strike: the budget and debt ceiling twin fiascos.
Those will come soon enough and command daily, screechy headlines from the breathless media whores, but before them, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, after which it will purportedly announce the great tapering, or, as it's being called on Wall Street, taper-lite, suggesting that the Fed will reduce its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion a month to somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 billion. Ho-hum. One supposes that the world can survive without an additional $10 billion of monthly liquidity. Somehow, we'll all find a way to survive.
With all these grand developments, Wall Street pros took the opportunity to ramp up stocks in advance of the next options expiry, in hopes that can can make another quick buck before the Fed pulls away the punch bowl.
The Dow was up another 135 points on the day, the third straight session in which the blue chip average was higher by more than 100 points, giving it a gain for the week, thus far, of 404 points. The NASDAQ and S&P were weighed down by Apple (AAPL), whose latest "earth-shaking" announcement was not any new products but merely enhancements and new pricing for existing ones. The stock was punished severely, down 26.93 points on the day.
Back at the Dow Industrials, the index will be reshuffled after the close of trade on September 20. Being kicked out are Bank of America (BAC), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Alcoa (AA), replaced by Nike (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Visa (V). Because of the way the index weights stocks, giving more weight to high-priced ones than low-priced ones, Goldman Sachs will become the third most-important stock on the Dow, with Visa becoming the second most-important.
In other words, with five financial firms now represented in the 30-stock index, get ready for Dow 20,000. There's no stopping it now, especially when the index can arbitrarily kick out losers and replace them with their favorite pump primers.
There is no honor, nor shame, amongst thieves.
Dow 15,326.60, +135.54 (0.89%)
Nasdaq 3,725.01, -4.01 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,689.13, +5.14 (0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 2.92%, -0.04
NYSE Volume 3,341,576,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,679,120,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3573-2957
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 344-80
WTI crude oil: 107.56, +0.17
Gold: 1,363.80, -0.20
Silver: 23.17, +0.156
While President Obummer tried his best to appear calm and in control, he was anything but. Russia's Vladimir Putin had outmaneuvered him on the Syria strike issue by proposing that Syria put its chemical weapons under supervision of international parties.
Meanwhile, the House of Representatives was backing far, far away from the unpopular choice to attack Syria, "in a measured way," as Secretary of State John Kerry might put it. A no vote on whether to give the president the authority to attack Syria was all but certain in the House and might have faltered in the Senate as well.
Thus, laughably, the president advised congress to delay its vote on authorization for use of military force for two weeks. Issue settled. Syria will not be assaulted by US arms, the president saves some face and congress gets off the hook as well. There probably will never be a vote on authorization. The Syria chemical attacks, which the administration so vociferously denounced as brutal, heinous, inhume and so outside the realm of civilized conduct that the Syrian government needed to be punished for them, will be back page news by the end of tomorrow so that congress and the president can move onto what they were trying to cover up with a war strike: the budget and debt ceiling twin fiascos.
Those will come soon enough and command daily, screechy headlines from the breathless media whores, but before them, the Federal Reserve's FOMC meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, after which it will purportedly announce the great tapering, or, as it's being called on Wall Street, taper-lite, suggesting that the Fed will reduce its monthly bond purchases from $85 billion a month to somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 billion. Ho-hum. One supposes that the world can survive without an additional $10 billion of monthly liquidity. Somehow, we'll all find a way to survive.
With all these grand developments, Wall Street pros took the opportunity to ramp up stocks in advance of the next options expiry, in hopes that can can make another quick buck before the Fed pulls away the punch bowl.
The Dow was up another 135 points on the day, the third straight session in which the blue chip average was higher by more than 100 points, giving it a gain for the week, thus far, of 404 points. The NASDAQ and S&P were weighed down by Apple (AAPL), whose latest "earth-shaking" announcement was not any new products but merely enhancements and new pricing for existing ones. The stock was punished severely, down 26.93 points on the day.
Back at the Dow Industrials, the index will be reshuffled after the close of trade on September 20. Being kicked out are Bank of America (BAC), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Alcoa (AA), replaced by Nike (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Visa (V). Because of the way the index weights stocks, giving more weight to high-priced ones than low-priced ones, Goldman Sachs will become the third most-important stock on the Dow, with Visa becoming the second most-important.
In other words, with five financial firms now represented in the 30-stock index, get ready for Dow 20,000. There's no stopping it now, especially when the index can arbitrarily kick out losers and replace them with their favorite pump primers.
There is no honor, nor shame, amongst thieves.
Dow 15,326.60, +135.54 (0.89%)
Nasdaq 3,725.01, -4.01 (0.11%)
S&P 500 1,689.13, +5.14 (0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 2.92%, -0.04
NYSE Volume 3,341,576,250
Nasdaq Volume 1,679,120,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3573-2957
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 344-80
WTI crude oil: 107.56, +0.17
Gold: 1,363.80, -0.20
Silver: 23.17, +0.156
Tuesday, September 10, 2013
Syria Euphoria Sends Stocks Higher; Trading Volume Hits 15-Year Low
The Dow added more than 250 points over the past two days and the NASDAQ hit fresh 13-year highs, meaning only one thing: we're officially in vapor-land as S&P equity trading volume hits fresh 15-year lows.
Meanwhile, the Syria story gets more and more confusing and confounding, the President's address tonight at 9:00 pm EDT (we do hope he'll be on time for once) probably just adding more layers of confusion to this twisted international story presaging World War III, which is bound to happen anyway, one way or another, the crux of the argument being Iran's nuclear ambitions and the US (and Israel's) attempts to defuse them.
So, how's that 401K looking? Pretty peachy, huh? Well, that's until the authorities come to confiscate it as happened in Poland last week.
A major financial disruption is just weeks away, be it the default of Deutsche Bank on some of their massive, unregulated CDS, Italian bank defaults or maybe, just maybe a big resounding thud from the likes of JP Morgan, or, our favorite, Bank of America.
The system is completely stressed out, trading on razor-thin volume while Peace President O-Bomber gets an itchy finger over Syria and a false-flag operation that hasn't convinced anybody of anything. What could possibly go wrong?
Russia's Vladimir Putin is playing Obama like a banjo, plucking his strings with the talent of a virtuoso. Other outlets have compared the recent developments over Syria as Putin playing chess while OBozo struggles with checkers.
We think the analogy is apropos. The US government will soon be on its knees, begging forgiveness from a broken-hearted world and US population. There will be no mercy given to the betrayers of the constitution.
And, by the way, the NSA is FOS.
Dow 15,191.06, +127.94 (0.85%)
Nasdaq 3,729.02, +22.84 (0.62%)
S&P 500 1,683.99, +12.28 (0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 2.96%, +0.06
NYSE Volume 3,911,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,767,686,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4249-2265
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 403-52
WTI crude oil: 107.39, -2.13
Gold: 1,364.00, -22.70
Silver: 23.02, -0.701
Meanwhile, the Syria story gets more and more confusing and confounding, the President's address tonight at 9:00 pm EDT (we do hope he'll be on time for once) probably just adding more layers of confusion to this twisted international story presaging World War III, which is bound to happen anyway, one way or another, the crux of the argument being Iran's nuclear ambitions and the US (and Israel's) attempts to defuse them.
So, how's that 401K looking? Pretty peachy, huh? Well, that's until the authorities come to confiscate it as happened in Poland last week.
A major financial disruption is just weeks away, be it the default of Deutsche Bank on some of their massive, unregulated CDS, Italian bank defaults or maybe, just maybe a big resounding thud from the likes of JP Morgan, or, our favorite, Bank of America.
The system is completely stressed out, trading on razor-thin volume while Peace President O-Bomber gets an itchy finger over Syria and a false-flag operation that hasn't convinced anybody of anything. What could possibly go wrong?
Russia's Vladimir Putin is playing Obama like a banjo, plucking his strings with the talent of a virtuoso. Other outlets have compared the recent developments over Syria as Putin playing chess while OBozo struggles with checkers.
We think the analogy is apropos. The US government will soon be on its knees, begging forgiveness from a broken-hearted world and US population. There will be no mercy given to the betrayers of the constitution.
And, by the way, the NSA is FOS.
Dow 15,191.06, +127.94 (0.85%)
Nasdaq 3,729.02, +22.84 (0.62%)
S&P 500 1,683.99, +12.28 (0.73%)
10-Yr Bond 2.96%, +0.06
NYSE Volume 3,911,199,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,767,686,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4249-2265
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 403-52
WTI crude oil: 107.39, -2.13
Gold: 1,364.00, -22.70
Silver: 23.02, -0.701
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