Wednesday, May 31, 2017

A Brief Look at the Fall of the Roman Empire and Comparisons to America

This is simply priceless.

Just after the market open (9:45 am ET), Chicago PMI was reported at 55.2

U.S. Midwest factory activity index retreats in May - Chicago PMI
NEW YORK U.S. Midwest manufacturing activity fell more than forecast in May from its strongest level in more than two years, an index jointly developed by MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago released on Wednesday showed.

A couple of hours later (after the Dow was down 87 points):
Updated: Chicago PMI Increases in May
Earlier, the Chicago PMI was reported at 55.2. That has now been corrected to 59.4. This was above the consensus forecast.

So, not only do US (and, by way of inference, all other equity markets, globally) equity markets have the backstopping mechanism of central banks buying stocks, and the Plunge Protection Team at work, but now routine data releases are changed when they don't exactly fit the narrative.

Fake news, fake money, fake boobs, fake everything. Better check your pulse. It may be fake and you are actually dead.

These's only one way to report on finances anymore, with tongue planted firmly in cheek.

A major reset is coming. The sustainability of the current construct probably has a pretty short shelf life. However, in financial and historical terms, that could be months, years or decades. The fall of the Roman Empire was a slow-motion wreck that took over 300 years, roughly from 117 AD to 476.

Wikipedia has an interesting opening line on the Fall of the Western Roman Empire:
The Fall of the Western Roman Empire (also called Fall of the Roman Empire or Fall of Rome) was the process of decline in the Western Roman Empire in which it failed to enforce its rule, and its vast territory was divided into several successor polities.
-emphasis Money Daily

Note the wording, "failed to enforce its rule..." which would coincide roughly with the greatest fiasco related to the most recent election campaign, wherein FBI director James Comey laid out specific crimes by Hillary Clinton, but concluded that "no reasonable prosecutor would bring charges." Add to that the short meeting between former president Bill Clinton and then-Attorney General Loretta Lynch on the tarmac of the Phoenix airport just a few days prior to Comey's televised statement and you have a textbook case of "failing to enforce its rule."

So, the fall of the American empire may be in its earliest days. You can breath a sigh of relief now.

Well, maybe not.

Looking at the decline of Rome another way would be to examine its currency, which was gold and silver. The devaluation of the currency predates the earlier given date of the beginning of the fall at 117, when Emperor Nero fiddled with the silver content in the denarius, reducing it from 100% silver to 85%, during his reign from 54-68 AD. By the time Emperor Severus ruled (193-211 AD), the coinage was down to 50% silver. Eventually, Roman coins would contain less than 1% silver or none at all.

From that perspective, we could be almost at an end. These days, life moves faster than it did in Roman times. Romans didn't have instant communications, computers, cell phones or any of the "essentials" which we today take for granted. Consequently, technology has made it possible for everything outside of nature (animals, climate, insects, geology, etc.) to move at a much faster pace.

Thus noted, the American empire may be collapsing much faster than mainstream economists are willing to admit. The US Mint stamped its last gold coin in 1932. It stopped 90% silver coinage in 1964. Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971. Since then, our money has had no backing beyond the "full faith and credit" of the federal government, which, as many are now aware, has overextended its credit, causing a severe loss of faith by its loyal subjects (eh, that would be us, homey).

It's probably close to a majority of people living today in the United States which are clueless concerning the value of their currency, which is basically the paper upon which is printed numbers, words, pictures of dead presidents, and other indicia of America's greatness. Anybody born in 1971 would be 46 or 47 now; anybody born after that date would be, obviously, younger. All of those people have been living in a world of fiat currency, backed by absolutely nothing except empty promises from a federal government which can't balance its own books.

Making matters worse, US currency (or legal tender, to be correct) may be technically unconstitutional. The arguments concerning the constitutionality of the Federal Reserve to print paper money - granted that right by Congress in 1913 - are vague, various, contentious, and too deep for this limited discussion. But, a great many people have and some still do believe that money not backed by gold or silver or some other base commodity is, well, garbage.

104 years of the Federal Reserve ruining our economy has devalued the US dollar by 98%. So, where are we headed?

On the other hand, perhaps modernity consists of allowing such counterfeiting and fakery by central bankers and the tacit approval of the populace. In other words, don't rock the boat, keep with the status quo; the modern mores and normalcy bias will prevail. In that regard, Americans are a pretty complacent bunch, like the traders, movers, and shakers of Wall Street. We all go along to get along, or, in the words of a Russian during the Soviet era, "we pretend to work, and the government pretends to pay us."

We're deep down the rabbit hole, folks, and it appears that we're going deeper.

BTW: No "window dressing" on the final day of the month. Also, hat tip to Zero Hedge for inspiring this article.

At the Close, 5/31/17:
Dow: 21,008.65, -20.82 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ: 6,198.52, -4.67 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,411.80, -1.11 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,598.03, -3.28 (-0.03%)

Stocks Gain, Bond Yields Continue Lower in Fed-inspired Environment

Opening the week with across-the-board losses, the major indices took a little off the top Tuesday, the penultimate trading day for the month of May.

The losses were limited in scope, however, as speculators seem reluctant to forego gains in a bull market that has shown few signs of slowing.

With optimism on Wall Street approaching a state irrational exuberance, the issue becomes one of not when the market will reverse course, but at what speed. A sharp downturn could expose many hedgers and options players, though the Fed and their cohorts at the ECB, BOJ, and the PPT would likely quash any rampant selling by putting an artificial floor on the market, a tactic they've employed over the last eight years of fake recovery.

Unlimited upside is the overarching theme of the decade, despite the Fed's promise to raise interest rates four times in 2017. Despite the threat of tighter money, the 10-year treasury note closed out the day at 2.22% and shows no sign of reacting negatively to any Fed jawboning nor actual policy directives.

While the bull market remains intact at eight years and running, the bond rally is at 30 years. Liquidity and solvency have been the main catalysts since 2009, with central banks coordinating bond (and equity) purchases in order to prevent a complete collapse of the global financial system, which almost fell apart in 2008-09.

Complete control of all markets being the ultimate goal of central banks, the money-printers are close to achieving just that. Even if economic data remains sluggish, weak, or troubling, the Fed and friends will be at the rescue. Stocks have been unable to extend any losing streak to frightful lengths, thanks to central bank intervention, fearing losing control.

Whatever the outcome of the June FOMC meeting, it's almost a slam-dunk that stocks will gain. It's simply the way the market is currently composed.

At the Close, 5/30/17:
Dow: 21,029.47, -50.81 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,203.19, -7.00 (-0.11%)
S&P 500: 2,412.91, -2.91 (-0.12%)
NYSE Composite: 11,601.31, -30.56 (-0.26%)

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

Stocks Up for the Week; Murky Outlook Going Forward

The last full week of May was a solid one for stock pickers, with all the major averages posting excellent weekly gains, despite a somewhat subdued session Friday.

The NASDAQ and S&P notched new all-time highs a couple of times, though the question remains as to just how much higher stocks can ascend given the weakness in macro data and tension in geopolitics.

The start of June is generally a quiet time for markets, but, with central banks backstopping any selloff with unlimited funding, the fun may last some time longer. June's FOMC meeting has been heralded as one in which the Fed may raise the federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25%, which would be a high-water mark since the GFC of 2008-09.

Money Daily disputes to contention of many analysts - 83% of which see a June rate hike - that a rate hike is imminent, due to glaringly obvious poor results in housing, personal income and spending, and industrial production, to name just a few.

Futures are pointing to a negative open in this holiday-shortened week.

At The Close, 5/26/17:
Dow: 21,080.28, -2.67 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ 6,210.19, +4.94 (0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,415.82, +0.75 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,631.87, -7.43 (-0.06%)

For the week:
Dow: +275.44 (1.32%)
NASDAQ: +126.49 (2.08%)
S&P 500: +34.09 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite: +89.18 (0.77%)

Thursday, May 25, 2017

Rally Continues; Assimilation Of Entire Global Economy By Central Bankers Is Nearly Complete

Just for the heck of it, look up a couple of things on your favorite search engine (ours is Bing; we've supplied the links):

The Crime of '73

Creature From Jekyl Island

President's Working Group on Financial Markets

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

If it's not already obvious, the international cartel of banking has been at this game a long, long, long, time.

Just for fun, here's an article from FEE.org (Foundation For Economic Education) by Robert Higgs: Wartime Origins of Modern Income-Tax Withholding.

If you allow (and who hasn't?) the government to take your money before you ever see it, you're owned. Sure, your retirement fund looks good, but try adding up all the taxes you've paid the last ten years (spoiler alert:: you'll be shocked).

That's all for today, including new record closes for the S&P and NASDAQ.

At the Close, 5/25/17:
Dow: 21,082.95, +70.53 (0.34%)
S&P 500: 2,415.07, +10.68 (0.44%)
NASDAQ: 6,205.26, +42.23 (0.69%)
NYSE Composite: 11,640.73, +19.50 (0.17%)

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Stocks Rage into the Close; PPT Mentioned on CNBC

Good stuff on Zero Hedge, when Asher Edelman brought up the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) on CNBC's "Fast Money."

People really don't mention the Plunge Protection Team much anymore, ever since the Fed and their central bank cohorts began their financial asset buying spree in 2009. The Fed money-printing machine puts the PPT (otherwise known as the President's Working Group on Financial Markets) to shame.

The Federal Reserve added liquidity to markets by directly intervening through outright asset purchases of mortgage-backed securities and treasury bills and notes. Known as Qualitative Easing (QE), those in the know simply call it "money printing" or "creating money out of thin air." Both are correct, and, despite all the best intents of Keynesian economics, those actions are supposed to create inflation, which has occurred in stocks, housing and elsewhere, but not in the many and varied consumer staples and discretionary items.

Most consumer prices (and incomes) have somewhat stagnated since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09, and, with the Fed threatening another rate increase in June, they probably won't be moving soon. The dislocations in the housing market and the massive transfer of wealth from the poor and middle classes to the very rich, however, have been direct results of Fed action.

So, it's somewhat funny that the commentator would single out the PPT, though he's probably spot on in his general assessment. The bigger issue would be the almost total control of the equity markets by key players, notably, central banks and large commercial firms, i.e., Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, et. al.

Whatever method was in play today, it certainly worked wonders as stocks levitated after 2:00 pm ET into the close.

At The Close, 5/24/17:
Dow: 21,012.42, +74.51 (0.36%)
NASDAQ: 6,163.02, +24.31 (0.40%)
S&P 500: 2,404.39, +5.97 (0.25%)
NYSE Composite: 11,621.23, +16.61 (0.14%)