A Brief Look at the Fall of the Roman Empire and Comparisons to America

This is simply priceless.

Just after the market open (9:45 am ET), Chicago PMI was reported at 55.2

U.S. Midwest factory activity index retreats in May - Chicago PMI
NEW YORK U.S. Midwest manufacturing activity fell more than forecast in May from its strongest level in more than two years, an index jointly developed by MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago released on Wednesday showed.

A couple of hours later (after the Dow was down 87 points):

Updated: Chicago PMI Increases in May
Earlier, the Chicago PMI was reported at 55.2. That has now been corrected to 59.4. This was above the consensus forecast.

So, not only do US (and, by way of inference, all other equity markets, globally) equity markets have the backstopping mechanism of central banks buying stocks, and the Plunge Protection Team at work, but now routine data releases are changed when they don't exactly fit the narrative.

Fake news, fake money, fake boobs, fake everything. Better check your pulse. It may be fake and you are actually dead.

These's only one way to report on finances anymore, with tongue planted firmly in cheek.

A major reset is coming. The sustainability of the current construct probably has a pretty short shelf life. However, in financial and historical terms, that could be months, years or decades. The fall of the Roman Empire was a slow-motion wreck that took over 300 years, roughly from 117 AD to 476.

Wikipedia has an interesting opening line on the Fall of the Western Roman Empire:

The Fall of the Western Roman Empire (also called Fall of the Roman Empire or Fall of Rome) was the process of decline in the Western Roman Empire in which it failed to enforce its rule, and its vast territory was divided into several successor polities.

-emphasis Money Daily

Note the wording, "failed to enforce its rule..." which would coincide roughly with the greatest fiasco related to the most recent election campaign, wherein FBI director James Comey laid out specific crimes by Hillary Clinton, but concluded that "no reasonable prosecutor would bring charges." Add to that the short meeting between former president Bill Clinton and then-Attorney General Loretta Lynch on the tarmac of the Phoenix airport just a few days prior to Comey's televised statement and you have a textbook case of "failing to enforce its rule."

So, the fall of the American empire may be in its earliest days. You can breath a sigh of relief now.

Well, maybe not.

Looking at the decline of Rome another way would be to examine its currency, which was gold and silver. The devaluation of the currency predates the earlier given date of the beginning of the fall at 117, when Emperor Nero fiddled with the silver content in the denarius, reducing it from 100% silver to 85%, during his reign from 54-68 AD. By the time Emperor Severus ruled (193-211 AD), the coinage was down to 50% silver. Eventually, Roman coins would contain less than 1% silver or none at all.

From that perspective, we could be almost at an end. These days, life moves faster than it did in Roman times. Romans didn't have instant communications, computers, cell phones or any of the "essentials" which we today take for granted. Consequently, technology has made it possible for everything outside of nature (animals, climate, insects, geology, etc.) to move at a much faster pace.

Thus noted, the American empire may be collapsing much faster than mainstream economists are willing to admit. The US Mint stamped its last gold coin in 1932. It stopped 90% silver coinage in 1964. Nixon took the US off the gold standard in 1971. Since then, our money has had no backing beyond the "full faith and credit" of the federal government, which, as many are now aware, has overextended its credit, causing a severe loss of faith by its loyal subjects (eh, that would be us, homey).

It's probably close to a majority of people living today in the United States which are clueless concerning the value of their currency, which is basically the paper upon which is printed numbers, words, pictures of dead presidents, and other indicia of America's greatness. Anybody born in 1971 would be 46 or 47 now; anybody born after that date would be, obviously, younger. All of those people have been living in a world of fiat currency, backed by absolutely nothing except empty promises from a federal government which can't balance its own books.

Making matters worse, US currency (or legal tender, to be correct) may be technically unconstitutional. The arguments concerning the constitutionality of the Federal Reserve to print paper money - granted that right by Congress in 1913 - are vague, various, contentious, and too deep for this limited discussion. But, a great many people have and some still do believe that money not backed by gold or silver or some other base commodity is, well, garbage.

104 years of the Federal Reserve ruining our economy has devalued the US dollar by 98%. So, where are we headed?

On the other hand, perhaps modernity consists of allowing such counterfeiting and fakery by central bankers and the tacit approval of the populace. In other words, don't rock the boat, keep with the status quo; the modern mores and normalcy bias will prevail. In that regard, Americans are a pretty complacent bunch, like the traders, movers, and shakers of Wall Street. We all go along to get along, or, in the words of a Russian during the Soviet era, "we pretend to work, and the government pretends to pay us."

We're deep down the rabbit hole, folks, and it appears that we're going deeper.

BTW: No "window dressing" on the final day of the month. Also, hat tip to Zero Hedge for inspiring this article.

At the Close, 5/31/17:
Dow: 21,008.65, -20.82 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ: 6,198.52, -4.67 (-0.08%)
S&P 500: 2,411.80, -1.11 (-0.05%)
NYSE Composite: 11,598.03, -3.28 (-0.03%)

Triple Top or More Room to Roam?

Stocks just keep bounding up and down, but mostly up, though the activity since Thursday of last week (April 15) is suggesting that the top may be already set, or set up.

The Dow hit an intra-day high of 11,190.22 on Tuesday, after making stops at 11,189.61 on Thursday (4/15) and 11,186.82 on Friday (4/16). That appears to be the formation of some fairly significant resistance, especially considering today's close of 11,124.92, well below those lofty levels.

It's far too early to tell if that the 11,190 area will actually be the top, though the Transportation Index is signaling somewhat the same signs of waning interest, settling today some 124 points below its own intra-day high from April 15. Of course, more bad news for either Greece or Goldman Sachs will send the stock-pumping moles in the PPT scurrying into action with their billions of dollars of untraceable trades to keep stocks soaring and the public none the wiser.

If one is inclined to listen to financial news via the mainstream media (re: CNBC), the constant howling over "improving conditions", "V-shaped recovery" and similar bombast can be deafening, but make no doubt, dirty little secrets are being kept far from public view.

In that regard, the SC charges against Goldman Sachs are probably more of a decoy than anything else. If something critical were to occur - and break the collusion between the federal government and Wall Street - the Department of Justice would have filed criminal charges. The chances of anything like that actually happening are remote, though those of us who believe that the housing bubble and subsequent crash, bailouts and breakdowns were indeed high crimes remain hopeful.

Beating back the onrushing forces of government and big money at the same time is an uphill fight, one the American people seem ill-inclined to undertake. Tea parties have been largely a ploy of the right wing, do-nothing Republican party, which sees obstruction as a perfectly good alternative to actually legislating on the behalf of the American people.

Those days are long gone, and the folks occupying the high offices in Washington and Wall Street hope they will be soon forgotten as well. Politicians listen only for the sound of crisp bils being peeled off of large wads from well-heeled supporters, like oil companies, pharmas and banking interests. Nobody will go to jail after the banks literally stole billions of dollars in real estate assets through phony documentation, phony appraisals, phony credit reports and phony income statements.

The wizards of Wall Street are truthfully not wizards of high finance at all, but rather, masters of finagling every last dollar out of the pockets of the middle class. To them, working men and women are rabble, peons to be fleeced by their powerful financial acumen and lengthy over-worded documents. The government complies by not regulating and the courts further the fraud by failing to prosecute even when they have good actions with solid arguments in front of them.

Witness Federal Court Judge Virginia Phillips dismissing 8 separate class actions on the same pretext: that the banks and builders weren't responsible for the calamity which has put millions out of their homes, but that the "economy" or the "recession" was to blame. With judges like Phillips front-running litigation for the bank fraudsters, is there really any reason to believe in democratic principles like justice, fairness, or even due process any more?

The obvious answer is no, and that bodes ill for all of us, present and future. Baby boomers should face facts: our parents were probably the most prosperous generation ever in America, but we are less fortunate, with every excess dollar seemingly earmarked for either utility rate hikes, tax increases or supplements to the wildly out-of-control and under-funded entitlement programs. The baby-boomer generation will be lucky to retire with any kind of benefits, as the Social Security fund is already running current-account deficits. The government will have to either borrow or tax to pay the millions who will be retiring in the next decade, and borrow in enormous sums.

In the meantime, Americans mostly continue to work and try to save, though for many, that has become an increasingly difficult task. Unemployment is expected to remain stubbornly high for at least another three years, with 8% now being hailed as a benchmark, though in reality, the current 9.7% rate is actually closer to 18% when all the conditional arguments are removed from the government's calculations.

Wall Street could care less, though their rapacious greed could turn out to be their own worst enemy. Without a spending public, many of the major enterprises will crumble for lack of new suckers (funding). It cannot happen too soon, for only then will there be a reckoning and justice for all.

Dow 11,124.92, +7.86 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 2,504.61, +4.30 (0.17%)
S&P 500 1,205.93, -1.24 (0.10%)
NYSE Composite 7,644.67, -24.44 (0.32%)

Once again, the indices rendered a split decision, with two up and two down, indicating that a turn is approaching. Advancing issues led decliners, 3534-2957. 767 new highs overshadowed the mere 47 new lows. Volume was back up again, though it's likely due more to position trades than anything else, i.e., keeping the markets on an even keel by manipulating a range of stocks.

NYSE Volume 6,301,928,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,644,937,250

Oil was down, gold and silver, up, all three stuck in trading ranges they have occupies for months. Those prices are deliberately being manipulated to keep order in the global economy. Central banks fear gold because their currencies are backed by nothing but empty promises, and the oil sheiks and oligopolies can maintain production without social unrest at abysmally high prices.

Its a sad world condition, in which the rich now control a larger concentration of wealth than at any other time in history, except for maybe the Middle Ages or the Roman Empire.