Janet Yellen, Fed Chairwoman, blathered on about the economy, monetary and fiscal policy on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee, at one point saying that chances for the economy to improve or decline were roughly equal.
Those words set off the market like a bottle rocket, essentially painting the Fed as "dovish," meaning that both interest rate hikes and the winding down of its enormous balance sheet were subject to adjustments.
In other words, easy money as far as the eyes can see, and Wall Street took up the baton and ran with it, sending the Dow to new all-time highs and the NASDAQ up sharply.
Janet Yellen obviously doesn't know squat about the economy. Anybody capable of fogging a mirror could have made a statement such as hers, as in, "oh, sure, the economy might improve, or maybe not."
It's amazing that people put so much faith (and money matters) into the hands of fools such as Yellen and her fellow central bankers, all of whom have as their primary interest, themselves, not you, not the consumer, not the economy of any nation.
On Thursday, Yellen testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.
Cheers!
At the Close, 7/12/17:
Dow: 21,532.14, +123.07 (0.57%)
NASDAQ: 6,261.17, +67.87 (1.10%)
S&P 500: 2,443.25, +17.72 (0.73%)
NYSE Composite: 11,825.90, +81.13 (0.69%)
Thursday, July 13, 2017
Tuesday, July 11, 2017
Bull or Bear? By October, It Probably Won't Matter
Another day, another boring stock market supposedly awaiting Janet Yellen's annual testimony before the the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday and the Senate Finance Committee, Thursday.
Big YAWN.
Janet Yellen's words are worthless. She mouths big words like macro-prudential, as though she actually practices it while heads spin and eyes glaze over trying to comprehend its meaning.
In reality, the term refers to policy actions designed to mitigate systemic risk. It's rubbish. It's Fed-speak. While it sounds good on the surface, everything is at risk, including the entire global financial system that nearly imploded in 2008. If enough companies, or, heaven forbid, banks, default on their obligations, the risk is interconnected, and probably more so than in 2008-09.
There are no safeguards. There are only bigger bets, known as derivatives, credit default swaps (CDS), leverage, and arbitrage.
The system is as fragile now as it was just prior to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09, and probably, it is even more fragile, simply because the Fed does not have the tools to fight back against deflation and recession, the dual threats to capitalism.
So, Janet Yellen will testify to congress on Wednesday and nothing at all will change. Meanwhile, markets are stuck in neutral, which means, in these absurd times, a tilt toward slightly positive.
Another big YAWN.
The big moves will be in September, when the laid-back congress will be forced to raise the debt ceiling and come up with another annual budget. It's likely to be a wild time, even for this do-nothing congress. President Trump will be holding both Republican and Democrat feet to various fires.
If not September, then October should be another possible meltdown time frame. It always has been, and, with the markets and economy showing severe signs of fraud and stress, a market "event" is long, long overdue.
At the Close, 7/11/17:
Dow: 21,409.07, +0.55 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: 6,193.30, +16.91 (0.27%)
S&P 500: 2,425.53, -1.90 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,746.72, -5.07 (-0.04%)
Big YAWN.
Janet Yellen's words are worthless. She mouths big words like macro-prudential, as though she actually practices it while heads spin and eyes glaze over trying to comprehend its meaning.
In reality, the term refers to policy actions designed to mitigate systemic risk. It's rubbish. It's Fed-speak. While it sounds good on the surface, everything is at risk, including the entire global financial system that nearly imploded in 2008. If enough companies, or, heaven forbid, banks, default on their obligations, the risk is interconnected, and probably more so than in 2008-09.
There are no safeguards. There are only bigger bets, known as derivatives, credit default swaps (CDS), leverage, and arbitrage.
The system is as fragile now as it was just prior to the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008-09, and probably, it is even more fragile, simply because the Fed does not have the tools to fight back against deflation and recession, the dual threats to capitalism.
So, Janet Yellen will testify to congress on Wednesday and nothing at all will change. Meanwhile, markets are stuck in neutral, which means, in these absurd times, a tilt toward slightly positive.
Another big YAWN.
The big moves will be in September, when the laid-back congress will be forced to raise the debt ceiling and come up with another annual budget. It's likely to be a wild time, even for this do-nothing congress. President Trump will be holding both Republican and Democrat feet to various fires.
If not September, then October should be another possible meltdown time frame. It always has been, and, with the markets and economy showing severe signs of fraud and stress, a market "event" is long, long overdue.
At the Close, 7/11/17:
Dow: 21,409.07, +0.55 (0.00%)
NASDAQ: 6,193.30, +16.91 (0.27%)
S&P 500: 2,425.53, -1.90 (-0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 11,746.72, -5.07 (-0.04%)
Something To Do While Awaiting Speaking By Janet Yellen
Stocks were briefly lower, then higher, but finished split, almost even, for the day.
This is part of the effect of having globalists like Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve controlling global economics. ON Monday, all of Wall Street is apparently waiting for the Fed Chairwoman's speech before congress on Wednesday and Thursday, or the release of the Fed's Beige Book of economic conditions on Wednesday.
Or the market is waiting for something else. Earnings, CPI, Industrial Production. It's always something, and it seems that the market is always waiting.
Over the past eight years this strategy has worked out pretty well for stock investors. Waiting has resulted in massive market gains over time, even though data has been less-than-splendid and often outrightly bad. That's where the "bad news is good news" meme came about: even though economic conditions were seen as negative, it was good for stocks because interest rates would remain low (making sure that stocks were the only game in town) and the free money from the Fed fountainhead would continue to flow.
Seriously, nobody is actually waiting for anything, no matter how much the TV and newspaper financial pundits like to propound on the topic. Investment decisions aren't exactly made based on data, at least not since the GFC. Stocks, and to a large extent, central banks and the Federal Reserve, have become disconnected from reality.
By almost all generally-accepted measures, stocks are overvalued. However, they remain the principal product of the Wall Street hucksters in terms of return. Bonds are returning little, and, if there is any appreciable inflation, they will return nothing in nominal value.
Stocks go up. They also go down. Some do better than others, but, to believe that the entire market is making a conscious choice to wait until Janet Yellen drools and stutters her way through her annual congressional hearings, is a monumental fraud in thinking.
Those who are buying are buying. The sellers are selling. Mostly, it's computers doing all the work and there's no good reason, presently, to make any meaningful changes in any meaningful portfolio.
At least that's what it looks like, but we'll wait and see.
At the Close, 7/10/17:
Dow: 21,408.52, -5.82 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 6,176.39, +23.31 (0.38%)
S&P 500 2,427.43, +2.25 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 11,751.79, -1.19 (-0.01%)
This is part of the effect of having globalists like Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve controlling global economics. ON Monday, all of Wall Street is apparently waiting for the Fed Chairwoman's speech before congress on Wednesday and Thursday, or the release of the Fed's Beige Book of economic conditions on Wednesday.
Or the market is waiting for something else. Earnings, CPI, Industrial Production. It's always something, and it seems that the market is always waiting.
Over the past eight years this strategy has worked out pretty well for stock investors. Waiting has resulted in massive market gains over time, even though data has been less-than-splendid and often outrightly bad. That's where the "bad news is good news" meme came about: even though economic conditions were seen as negative, it was good for stocks because interest rates would remain low (making sure that stocks were the only game in town) and the free money from the Fed fountainhead would continue to flow.
Seriously, nobody is actually waiting for anything, no matter how much the TV and newspaper financial pundits like to propound on the topic. Investment decisions aren't exactly made based on data, at least not since the GFC. Stocks, and to a large extent, central banks and the Federal Reserve, have become disconnected from reality.
By almost all generally-accepted measures, stocks are overvalued. However, they remain the principal product of the Wall Street hucksters in terms of return. Bonds are returning little, and, if there is any appreciable inflation, they will return nothing in nominal value.
Stocks go up. They also go down. Some do better than others, but, to believe that the entire market is making a conscious choice to wait until Janet Yellen drools and stutters her way through her annual congressional hearings, is a monumental fraud in thinking.
Those who are buying are buying. The sellers are selling. Mostly, it's computers doing all the work and there's no good reason, presently, to make any meaningful changes in any meaningful portfolio.
At least that's what it looks like, but we'll wait and see.
At the Close, 7/10/17:
Dow: 21,408.52, -5.82 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 6,176.39, +23.31 (0.38%)
S&P 500 2,427.43, +2.25 (0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 11,751.79, -1.19 (-0.01%)
Saturday, July 8, 2017
Stocks Finish Week With Gains, Remain Range-Bound
If one were to view Friday's market action in a vacuum, without context, one would think everything is just peachy in Wall Street wonderland. The NFP jobs report for June was solid and the major indices put up strong gains to close out the week.
But, nothing exists in isolation.
Taking a little bit broader view, over the shortened, four-day week, all that Friday's gains managed to do was life all the major indices from red to green for the week, with the exception of the NYSE Composite, which finished just nine points underwater, but, not to worry, nobody pays attention to the "comp" anymore, even though it is the most diverse, broadest of the majors.
Fraud, manipulation, massive central bank intervention?
Yes, sure, of course. Since central banks have been the primary drivers of the eight year recovery since the GFC, why would anybody believe they have stopped their high-stakes involvement. Lowering interest rates - even to negative - didn't work. Massive injections of funny fiat money didn't work. Talking about how the labor market and the general economy was doing so great (it isn't) didn't work, so, why not resort to outright purchasing of equities in a vain attempt to create a "wealth effect?"
Of course, the Fed will never admit to such activity, but Switzerland (SNB), Japan (BOJ), and the European Central Bank (ECB) have all openly been buying stocks for the past few years, at least, and probably longer.
Therefore, the entire week of trading was a nonsensical, uneventful kabuki play, designed to give the impression that all is well and there's no reason to sell... anything... even though many did. As they say in the current newsspeak nomenclature, a major league nothing-burger.
Balderdash. You're being culled, cuckolded, marinated, stuffed, and baked by people who control your baseless currency when you could be using that same valueless "money" to purchase goods, food, machinery of trade, gold, silver (currently on sale, as it has been for four years running), land, land and more land, some with actual buildings erected.
But, no. Americans (not to the exclusion of Canadiens, Japanese, and Euroland dwellers) instead purchase garbage college educations for garbage jobs, cell phones, 70-inch TVs, overpriced cars (mainly on leases), and run up enormous amounts of credit card and other debt for baseball tickets and extraordinary "experiences."
With the US government $19.965 trillion in debt, something along the lines of 10,000 seniors retiring every day, underfunded pensions galore, and monstrous debt and unfunded liabilities under-and-overhanging nearly every developed nation...
Good luck with that.
At the Close, 7/7/17:
Dow: 21,414.34, +94.30 (0.44%)
NASDAQ: 6,153.08, +63.61 (1.04%)
S&P 500: 2,425.18, +15.43 (0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 11,752.98, +50.55 (0.43%)
For the week:
Dow: +64.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ: +12.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500: +1.77 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite: -8.72 (-0.07)
But, nothing exists in isolation.
Taking a little bit broader view, over the shortened, four-day week, all that Friday's gains managed to do was life all the major indices from red to green for the week, with the exception of the NYSE Composite, which finished just nine points underwater, but, not to worry, nobody pays attention to the "comp" anymore, even though it is the most diverse, broadest of the majors.
Fraud, manipulation, massive central bank intervention?
Yes, sure, of course. Since central banks have been the primary drivers of the eight year recovery since the GFC, why would anybody believe they have stopped their high-stakes involvement. Lowering interest rates - even to negative - didn't work. Massive injections of funny fiat money didn't work. Talking about how the labor market and the general economy was doing so great (it isn't) didn't work, so, why not resort to outright purchasing of equities in a vain attempt to create a "wealth effect?"
Of course, the Fed will never admit to such activity, but Switzerland (SNB), Japan (BOJ), and the European Central Bank (ECB) have all openly been buying stocks for the past few years, at least, and probably longer.
Therefore, the entire week of trading was a nonsensical, uneventful kabuki play, designed to give the impression that all is well and there's no reason to sell... anything... even though many did. As they say in the current newsspeak nomenclature, a major league nothing-burger.
Balderdash. You're being culled, cuckolded, marinated, stuffed, and baked by people who control your baseless currency when you could be using that same valueless "money" to purchase goods, food, machinery of trade, gold, silver (currently on sale, as it has been for four years running), land, land and more land, some with actual buildings erected.
But, no. Americans (not to the exclusion of Canadiens, Japanese, and Euroland dwellers) instead purchase garbage college educations for garbage jobs, cell phones, 70-inch TVs, overpriced cars (mainly on leases), and run up enormous amounts of credit card and other debt for baseball tickets and extraordinary "experiences."
With the US government $19.965 trillion in debt, something along the lines of 10,000 seniors retiring every day, underfunded pensions galore, and monstrous debt and unfunded liabilities under-and-overhanging nearly every developed nation...
Good luck with that.
At the Close, 7/7/17:
Dow: 21,414.34, +94.30 (0.44%)
NASDAQ: 6,153.08, +63.61 (1.04%)
S&P 500: 2,425.18, +15.43 (0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 11,752.98, +50.55 (0.43%)
For the week:
Dow: +64.71 (0.30%)
NASDAQ: +12.66 (0.21%)
S&P 500: +1.77 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite: -8.72 (-0.07)
Thursday, July 6, 2017
More NASDAQ Losses Cause For Concern
There are those in the financial hinterlands who believe that the latest bout of indigestion in equities is simply another round of petty games played by central bank elitists who continue to exert extreme control, especially at times when it seems a correction may be at hand.
There are others who believe that the entire eight years of QE-and-ZIRP-inspired gains have been the exclusive province of the central banks and that they are preparing to pull the proverbial rug out from under markets via interest rate hikes and a general cessation of currency creation.
Both parties may be right, insofar as the central banks have been the epicenter of all financial activity, surreptitiously aiding the money center banks and primary dealers closest to the Fed's largesse.
Thus, the declines on the NASDAQ - not just today, but for the past three weeks - are sending signals to smaller market participants and there has been the beginning of a realignment of asset allocations, from tech to cash, from consumer staples and cyclicals to dividend-payers and utilities.
The issue at present, as was the case in 2008-09 and most other major market corrections or reversals from bull to bear, is that nowhere is there a safe place to hide, though the usual standouts are cash, precious metals and treasuries. On the latter, the 10-year note continued its ascent, finishing the day at 2.37, a multi-month high. That's a notable move, signifying that money may be indeed becoming tighter, even though that is a relative term, heading north from a real rate approaching zero.
At this juncture, it's still too early to raise the alarm bells, though the heavily-leveraged may be getting margin calls in short order. The NAZ is closing in on a five percent decline from the June 9 high of 6341.70, currently at a level of -3.98%. The even one percent loss on the NASDAQ today was followed in close order by the other major indices.
Caution is advised. Do NOT buy this dip as there are far too many worrying factors in the mix.
At the Close, 7/6/17:
Dow: 21,320.04, -158.13 (-0.74%)
NASDAQ: 6,089.46, -61.39 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 2,409.75, -22.79 (-0.94%)
NYSE Composite: 11,702.42, -107.07 (-0.91%)
There are others who believe that the entire eight years of QE-and-ZIRP-inspired gains have been the exclusive province of the central banks and that they are preparing to pull the proverbial rug out from under markets via interest rate hikes and a general cessation of currency creation.
Both parties may be right, insofar as the central banks have been the epicenter of all financial activity, surreptitiously aiding the money center banks and primary dealers closest to the Fed's largesse.
Thus, the declines on the NASDAQ - not just today, but for the past three weeks - are sending signals to smaller market participants and there has been the beginning of a realignment of asset allocations, from tech to cash, from consumer staples and cyclicals to dividend-payers and utilities.
The issue at present, as was the case in 2008-09 and most other major market corrections or reversals from bull to bear, is that nowhere is there a safe place to hide, though the usual standouts are cash, precious metals and treasuries. On the latter, the 10-year note continued its ascent, finishing the day at 2.37, a multi-month high. That's a notable move, signifying that money may be indeed becoming tighter, even though that is a relative term, heading north from a real rate approaching zero.
At this juncture, it's still too early to raise the alarm bells, though the heavily-leveraged may be getting margin calls in short order. The NAZ is closing in on a five percent decline from the June 9 high of 6341.70, currently at a level of -3.98%. The even one percent loss on the NASDAQ today was followed in close order by the other major indices.
Caution is advised. Do NOT buy this dip as there are far too many worrying factors in the mix.
At the Close, 7/6/17:
Dow: 21,320.04, -158.13 (-0.74%)
NASDAQ: 6,089.46, -61.39 (-1.00%)
S&P 500: 2,409.75, -22.79 (-0.94%)
NYSE Composite: 11,702.42, -107.07 (-0.91%)
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