Follow the logic:
US federal government shuts down, stocks go up.
US Dollar collapse: stocks go higher (but inflation kills your purchasing power).
Nuclear war: stocks go ballistic (parabolic path, but the world is mostly ash).
TEOTWAWKI: Stocks take off towards infinity (no way to cash out, i.e, can't take it with you, though).
Ergo, bad news is good news, again.
And you thought investing was easy...
At the Close, Friday, January 19, 2018:
Dow: 26,071.72, +53.91 (+0.21%)
NASDAQ: 7,336.38, +40.33 (+0.55%)
S&P 500: 2,810.30, +12.27 (+0.44%)
NYSE Composite: 13,384.13, +68.55 (+0.51%)
For the Week:
Dow: +268.53 (+1.04%)
NASDAQ: +40.33 (+0.55%)
S&P 500: +24.06 (+0.86%)
NYSE Composite: +90.12 (+0.68%)
Saturday, January 20, 2018
Friday, January 19, 2018
Does Wall Street Take a Government Shutdown Seriously?
Late Thursday afternoon, US stock indices took a decided turn to the downside as legislators in Washington DC failed to agree upon a plan to meep the US government operating past Friday night.
A favorite parlor game for the noise-makers in the nation's capitol, threatening to shut down the government because there's no budget or continuing resolution may have become passe´ to the general population, but Wall Street may take the issue a bit more seriously.
A partial shutdown of the federal government - because it doesn't really shut down critical operations or necessary functions - isn't taken seriously, though it could become a real issue, if it were, in fact, an absolute reality.
Considering the amounts of money the federal government handles on a regular basis, a complete shut-down would be devastating to the nation's economy. Imagine welfare, social security, and disability recipients not receiving their regular checks or direct deposits.
Imagine the nation's largest workforce going without paychecks for an extended period. Imagine the US Postal Service shut down, the entire military on leave, contractors idled, and an assortment of other regular activities closed, ceased, ended. The US treasury would cease operations, causing all US treasury bonds to become worthless.
Least of all, the bickering by members of congress would least be missed, since they are the supposedly responsible people.
An actual shutdown is a scary thought. Trying to scare the populace with a fake shutdown, caused solely by inter-party disagreements and politics, may be nothing now, but it could be seen as a conditioning effort for a true federal failure.
In such a case, the president would likely declare martial law, a necessary action to ensure civility, especially in cities. That's unlikely to happen at this juncture, but, the more the politicians play politics instead of enacting laws that do good for the American people, the closer the nations comes to a severe and lasting crisis.
Passing a two, three, or four-week resolution merely kicks the can down the road a little, making the government appear no better than that of a third-world banana republic.
If that's what's happening, all investors should take appropriate actions to safeguard not only their liquid assets invested in stocks and bonds, but also move to protect their friends and families.
The United States is headed for disaster if the congress and the news media continues on the destructive path of irresolution, political posturing, fear-mongering, and division.
Let's hope it doesn't begin to unravel further over the weekend.
At the Close, Thursday, January 18, 2018:
Dow: 26,017.81, -97.84 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,296.05, -2.23 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 2,798.03, -4.53 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,315.91, -36.48 (-0.27%)
A favorite parlor game for the noise-makers in the nation's capitol, threatening to shut down the government because there's no budget or continuing resolution may have become passe´ to the general population, but Wall Street may take the issue a bit more seriously.
A partial shutdown of the federal government - because it doesn't really shut down critical operations or necessary functions - isn't taken seriously, though it could become a real issue, if it were, in fact, an absolute reality.
Considering the amounts of money the federal government handles on a regular basis, a complete shut-down would be devastating to the nation's economy. Imagine welfare, social security, and disability recipients not receiving their regular checks or direct deposits.
Imagine the nation's largest workforce going without paychecks for an extended period. Imagine the US Postal Service shut down, the entire military on leave, contractors idled, and an assortment of other regular activities closed, ceased, ended. The US treasury would cease operations, causing all US treasury bonds to become worthless.
Least of all, the bickering by members of congress would least be missed, since they are the supposedly responsible people.
An actual shutdown is a scary thought. Trying to scare the populace with a fake shutdown, caused solely by inter-party disagreements and politics, may be nothing now, but it could be seen as a conditioning effort for a true federal failure.
In such a case, the president would likely declare martial law, a necessary action to ensure civility, especially in cities. That's unlikely to happen at this juncture, but, the more the politicians play politics instead of enacting laws that do good for the American people, the closer the nations comes to a severe and lasting crisis.
Passing a two, three, or four-week resolution merely kicks the can down the road a little, making the government appear no better than that of a third-world banana republic.
If that's what's happening, all investors should take appropriate actions to safeguard not only their liquid assets invested in stocks and bonds, but also move to protect their friends and families.
The United States is headed for disaster if the congress and the news media continues on the destructive path of irresolution, political posturing, fear-mongering, and division.
Let's hope it doesn't begin to unravel further over the weekend.
At the Close, Thursday, January 18, 2018:
Dow: 26,017.81, -97.84 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,296.05, -2.23 (-0.03%)
S&P 500: 2,798.03, -4.53 (-0.16%)
NYSE Composite: 13,315.91, -36.48 (-0.27%)
Wednesday, January 17, 2018
Tail Wags Dog: Fed 'Beige Book' Provides Rationale for Dollar Buying
Wall Street professionals wiped off all the poop from yesterday's 300+ price collapse on the DJIA and set about to bidding up risky assets to even riskier levels, sending the Dow and other averages soaring to new all-time closing highs.
Making matters even more preposterous, sinister, or outlandish was the reading of the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00 pm ET, which sent the US Dollar index off three-year lows to near the highs of the day at 4:00 pm ET, the closing bell on Wall Street.
If there's a soul left on the planet that hasn't bowed to the power of the Federal Reserve and its host of central bank and commercial cronies, then that person is simply out-of-touch.
Silver and gold have wallowed near multi-year bottoms for four long years while stocks have gone absolutely ballistic. Paper promises are worth much, much more than solid gold or silver in today's phony funny money world.
It's almost enough to make one give up writing on the subject (pondered here nearly every damn day).
Today's gains on the Dow Industrials were the largest since the election of November 8, 2016.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 17, 2018:
Dow: 26,115.65, +322.79 (+1.25%)
NASDAQ: 7,298.28, +74.59 (+1.03%)
S&P 500: 2,802.56, +26.14 (+0.94%)
NYSE Composite: 13,352.39, +105.53 (+0.80%)
Making matters even more preposterous, sinister, or outlandish was the reading of the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00 pm ET, which sent the US Dollar index off three-year lows to near the highs of the day at 4:00 pm ET, the closing bell on Wall Street.
If there's a soul left on the planet that hasn't bowed to the power of the Federal Reserve and its host of central bank and commercial cronies, then that person is simply out-of-touch.
Silver and gold have wallowed near multi-year bottoms for four long years while stocks have gone absolutely ballistic. Paper promises are worth much, much more than solid gold or silver in today's phony funny money world.
It's almost enough to make one give up writing on the subject (pondered here nearly every damn day).
Today's gains on the Dow Industrials were the largest since the election of November 8, 2016.
At the Close, Wednesday, January 17, 2018:
Dow: 26,115.65, +322.79 (+1.25%)
NASDAQ: 7,298.28, +74.59 (+1.03%)
S&P 500: 2,802.56, +26.14 (+0.94%)
NYSE Composite: 13,352.39, +105.53 (+0.80%)
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Turnaround Tuesday: Stocks Sink Into S---Hole
After soaring over 26,000 in the early going, the Dow Jones Industrial Average - and the rest of the main US indices - took an ugly turn to the negative, an elongated move which comprised nearly the entirety of the trading session.
The Dow, once as high as 26,086.12 fell to an intra-day low of 25,702.99, a 383-point decline. The blue chips gathered some momentum at the close, likely the work of short-covering, as sellers dominated the day's activity.
While the Dow finished with just a blemish, the NASDAQ was more badly injured, dropping nearly half a percentage point, though it too was soaring earlier in the session, as were the S&P and Composite.
There was little news upon which to hang the selling spree and it came as quite a surprise in the opening session following the MLK holiday. The energy and basic materials sectors took most of the downside, falling by 1.16% and 1.43%, respectively. Crude oil lost three-quarters of a percent, with WTI crude ending the day at 63.82 per barrel. The abrupt turnaround in the oil price could be the canary in the coal mine, but perhaps the biggest story of the day was the almighty US dollar, which fell to a three-year low, bottoming out at 90.28, the worst intra-day price since December, 2014.
Having the dollar and oil fall in unison is not the usual course of business. Such activity is the stuff that keeps the stomachs churning on Wall Street. No doubt, copious amounts of bismuth subsalicylate were consumed by belly-aching analysts.
If not apparent enough already, Tuesday's action prompted more than a few to reconsider portfolio allocations and question whether or not the Fed really does have the market's back.
Fear of sliding into some kind of hell hole or other equally unattractive place became paramount throughout the day.
Congress has three days in which to craft some kind of compromise budget, risking yet another blow to its already badly-damaged reputation.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 16,2018:
Dow: 25,792.86, -10.33 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 7,223.69, -37.38 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,776.42, -9.82 (-0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 13,247.85, -46.49 (-0.35%)
The Dow, once as high as 26,086.12 fell to an intra-day low of 25,702.99, a 383-point decline. The blue chips gathered some momentum at the close, likely the work of short-covering, as sellers dominated the day's activity.
While the Dow finished with just a blemish, the NASDAQ was more badly injured, dropping nearly half a percentage point, though it too was soaring earlier in the session, as were the S&P and Composite.
There was little news upon which to hang the selling spree and it came as quite a surprise in the opening session following the MLK holiday. The energy and basic materials sectors took most of the downside, falling by 1.16% and 1.43%, respectively. Crude oil lost three-quarters of a percent, with WTI crude ending the day at 63.82 per barrel. The abrupt turnaround in the oil price could be the canary in the coal mine, but perhaps the biggest story of the day was the almighty US dollar, which fell to a three-year low, bottoming out at 90.28, the worst intra-day price since December, 2014.
Having the dollar and oil fall in unison is not the usual course of business. Such activity is the stuff that keeps the stomachs churning on Wall Street. No doubt, copious amounts of bismuth subsalicylate were consumed by belly-aching analysts.
If not apparent enough already, Tuesday's action prompted more than a few to reconsider portfolio allocations and question whether or not the Fed really does have the market's back.
Fear of sliding into some kind of hell hole or other equally unattractive place became paramount throughout the day.
Congress has three days in which to craft some kind of compromise budget, risking yet another blow to its already badly-damaged reputation.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 16,2018:
Dow: 25,792.86, -10.33 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 7,223.69, -37.38 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,776.42, -9.82 (-0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 13,247.85, -46.49 (-0.35%)
Monday, January 15, 2018
Goldilocks Stock Market Is Becoming Idyllic Unicorn Utopia
Party hats and noise-makers for everyone!
The major US indices closed the second Friday in January at record levels. Huzzah, huzzah, huzzah!
The most recent stock market maneuverings are enough to make people consider quitting their jobs, as their money invested is making more.
How much more? Well, anybody with $100,000 invested in, say, a Dow index fund, on the last day of trading in 2017 (December 29), is ahead by $4386 as of the close Friday, January 12. That's like making over $2000 a week, or more than $100,000 a year.
Back in the 2006, the heyday of the sub-prime mortgage mania, people in places like San Diego were literally quitting their jobs, simply because their homes had risen in value by so much, sometimes as much as 150-200%. People in tony neighborhoods with $250,000 homes were being offered $500,000, $600,000 and more.
Well, we all know how that turned out, but the point of making money, either in real estate, or stocks, or anything else for that matter, relies largely upon one's entry and exit points.
To say that sometime in January would be a good time to at least trim some of one's stock holdings would not be considered bad advice. However, who would want to give up on a stock market that appears to be heading to the moon, orbiting it and then taking off toward outer space. After the great returns of 2017 - and the eight years prior to that - it's become apparent that "buy and hold" is the preferred strategy.
That makes sense, since the ongoing bull market is the second longest in market history and nudging along toward the longest ever, having begun in 2009, when the Dow bottomed out at 7,278.38 on March 20th. Having already tripled in value, another solid year could push the Dow (and the other averages) to quadrupling levels.
In other words, if you had $100,000 invested in March of 2009, you'd have over $350,000 today, on your way to $400,000. If you had $500,000 back then, you'd be close to $2 million, and if you haven't cashed out and retired already, you're a fool. (Seriously, anybody who can't make $2 million last 30 years is an idiot. It's $66,666 a year, or $1282 a week. That should be more than enough, even if you aren't keeping some of it in bonds at two percent).
So, stocks continue to ramp higher and probably aren't coming down any time soon. Plenty of people are what they call baby boomers and they're retiring in droves, many of them pulling money out of retirement funds. No matter how much these people remove from the market, it won't matter. There will be new buyers lining up to take their places, bid stocks higher, reap profits.
It's really amazing. Next, unicorns and money trees will be abundant.
At the Close, Friday, January 12, 2018:
Dow: 25,803.19, +228.46 (+0.89%)
NASDAQ: 7,261.06, +49.28 (+0.68%)
S&P 500: 2,786.24, +18.68 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,294.34, +83.57 (+0.63%)
For the Week:
Dow: +507.32 (+2.01%)
NASDAQ: +124.50 (+1.74%)
S&P 500: +43.09 (1.57%)
NYSE Composite: +191.11 (+1.46%)
The major US indices closed the second Friday in January at record levels. Huzzah, huzzah, huzzah!
The most recent stock market maneuverings are enough to make people consider quitting their jobs, as their money invested is making more.
How much more? Well, anybody with $100,000 invested in, say, a Dow index fund, on the last day of trading in 2017 (December 29), is ahead by $4386 as of the close Friday, January 12. That's like making over $2000 a week, or more than $100,000 a year.
Back in the 2006, the heyday of the sub-prime mortgage mania, people in places like San Diego were literally quitting their jobs, simply because their homes had risen in value by so much, sometimes as much as 150-200%. People in tony neighborhoods with $250,000 homes were being offered $500,000, $600,000 and more.
Well, we all know how that turned out, but the point of making money, either in real estate, or stocks, or anything else for that matter, relies largely upon one's entry and exit points.
To say that sometime in January would be a good time to at least trim some of one's stock holdings would not be considered bad advice. However, who would want to give up on a stock market that appears to be heading to the moon, orbiting it and then taking off toward outer space. After the great returns of 2017 - and the eight years prior to that - it's become apparent that "buy and hold" is the preferred strategy.
That makes sense, since the ongoing bull market is the second longest in market history and nudging along toward the longest ever, having begun in 2009, when the Dow bottomed out at 7,278.38 on March 20th. Having already tripled in value, another solid year could push the Dow (and the other averages) to quadrupling levels.
In other words, if you had $100,000 invested in March of 2009, you'd have over $350,000 today, on your way to $400,000. If you had $500,000 back then, you'd be close to $2 million, and if you haven't cashed out and retired already, you're a fool. (Seriously, anybody who can't make $2 million last 30 years is an idiot. It's $66,666 a year, or $1282 a week. That should be more than enough, even if you aren't keeping some of it in bonds at two percent).
So, stocks continue to ramp higher and probably aren't coming down any time soon. Plenty of people are what they call baby boomers and they're retiring in droves, many of them pulling money out of retirement funds. No matter how much these people remove from the market, it won't matter. There will be new buyers lining up to take their places, bid stocks higher, reap profits.
It's really amazing. Next, unicorns and money trees will be abundant.
At the Close, Friday, January 12, 2018:
Dow: 25,803.19, +228.46 (+0.89%)
NASDAQ: 7,261.06, +49.28 (+0.68%)
S&P 500: 2,786.24, +18.68 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,294.34, +83.57 (+0.63%)
For the Week:
Dow: +507.32 (+2.01%)
NASDAQ: +124.50 (+1.74%)
S&P 500: +43.09 (1.57%)
NYSE Composite: +191.11 (+1.46%)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
