Index Divergence Not A Pretty Sight; Higher Dollar, Oil, Gas Prices To Kill Economy

Friday's across the board gains in stocks managed to get the Dow into positive territory for the month, but paradoxically, not the week, which included the last day of April, a 148-point decline.

Thus, three of the major indices took it on the collective chins, with only the NASDAQ allowing for gains on a weekly basis. This kind of divergence - often seen in bear markets - is just another signal to astute investors that all is not well in the land of unicorns and lollipops otherwise known as Wall Street.

There's a significant amount of panic on display if one know where to look for it, one the best locations being the dollar index, which has been staging a rather relentless rally since mid-April, rising from 89.42 to 92.89, which may not seem like much on the surface, but in real terms, it's a huge matter to international trade. Companies not nimble enough to adjust to sudden currency movements may be caught flat-footed, on the wrong sides of trades, with losses in capital amounting to staggering sums if not accordingly hedged.

A rising dollar does rather damaging things to trading partners and to the US itself. Most obvious is that a strong dollar makes imports cheaper, dampens commodity prices should cause oil prices to decline, but, since the United States has become the world's largest producer of crude, perversely, oil is rising in tandem with the dollar (by Monday morning it had crested above $70/barrel), a condition which is going to cause some considerable pain to Americans who use more distilled products (gasoline) than any other nation.

If there's anything that will put a lid on economic expansion, it's high fuel prices, and the current level, if it remains so, primarily threatens the budgets of small businesses and individuals, acting as an up-front tax on production and consumption.

Practically every recession in modern history has been tied to the price of oil and/or gas. The current runaway price surge, if not contained and reversed, is likely to send the economy into a vicious tailspin. Since consumer credit is at an all-time high, the average driver cannot afford to spend more on fuel, be it to power an automobile, heat a home, or run a small business.

Once again, nefarious forces are at work, spiking the dollar and the price of crude simultaneously, when there is oil sloshing around everywhere and dollars returning to their US home thanks to congress and the president's tax reforms.

Those dollars, upon return, are being used by corporations for more stock buybacks, boosting - temporarily - stock prices, and are not reaching the consumption level, keeping inflation somewhat in check. The good news is that consumer goods will not skyrocket in price, though getting to the stores (what few of them remain) to buy such will cost more and more.

Greed will go where greed wants, and it always seems to manifest itself most profoundly in the price of a gallon of gas. Thank Larry Kudlow for this windfall for the Exxons and Chevrons of the world as his "king dollar" theory will be tested on the world stage.

Dow Jones Industrial Average May Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
5/1/18	24,099.05	-64.10	-64.10
5/2/18	23,924.98	-174.07	-238.17
5/3/18	23,930.15	+5.17	-233.00
5/4/18	24,262.51	+332.36	+99.36

At the Close, Friday, May 4, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,262.51, +332.36 (+1.39%)
NASDAQ: 7,209.62, +121.47 (+1.71%)
S&P 500: 2,663.42, +33.69 (+1.28%)
NYSE Composite: 12,493.35, +100.84 (+0.81%)

For the Week:
Dow: -48.68 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: +89.92 (+1.26%)
S&P 500: -6.49 (-0.24%)
NYSE Composite: -100.68 (-0.80%)

Stocks Pop, Then Drop As Commodity Rally Is Killed By Advancing Dollar

According to the Dollar Index, the value of the US Dollar improved dramatically on Monday against a basket of other major currencies. Exactly why this occurred is unknown, since the US dollar has been bleeding out for the better part of the past 16 months, stopping from a high of 105 in December 2016 to as low a 89.10 earlier this year.

From Sunday night through the opening of the stock markets on Monday morning, the dollar was improving at a rapid rate, shooting past 91.00 just prior to the opening bell.

That sudden move sent precious metals into free-fall, and oil down sharply as well. Stocks seemed to be sympathetic to the move at the start of trading, but, by midday the love affair was souring, and stocks retreated through the afternoon session, closing flat for the day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average April Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
4/2/18	23,644.19	-458.92	-458.92
4/3/18	24,033.36	+389.17	-69.75
4/4/18	24,264.30	+230.94	+161.19
4/5/18	24,505.22	+240.92	+402.11
4/6/18	23,932.76	-572.46	-170.35
4/9/18	23,979.10	+46.34	-134.01
4/10/18	24,407.86	+428.76	+294.66
4/11/18	24,189.45	-218.55	+76.11
4/12/18	24,483.05	+293.60	+369.71
4/13/18	24,360.14	-122.91	+247.80
4/16/18	24,573.04	+212.90	+460.70
4/17/18	24,786.63	+213.59	+674.29
4/18/18	24,748.07	-38.56	+635.73
4/19/18	24,664.89	-83.18	+552.55
4/20/18	24,462.94	-201.95	+350.60
4/23/18	24,448.69	-14.25	+336.35

At the Close, Monday, April 23, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,448.69, -14.25 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ: 7,128.60, -17.52 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: 2,670.29, +0.15 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 12,610.77, +3.62 (+0.03%)

Blue Chips Smashed Again; Dollar Dives; Gold, Silver Benefit

Whether or not the market - via the headline-parsing algorithms - was reacting to news that Rex Tillerson was fired from his position as Secretary of State or to hints that Larry Kudlow (yes, that "king dollar" Larry [cocaine habit] Kudlow) was in line to become the president's chief financial advisor has to be considered somewhat immaterial considering the calamitous close and the repeating pattern of strong openings and weak closes, telltale chart signals of bear markets.

Tuesday's rout left the Dow Jones Industrials down for the month... not by much, just 22 points, but there's been fundamental damage done to stocks not only today, but over the previous five weeks as well.

As Money Daily has recently taken pains to point out, the mood of the market has changed considerably since the go-go days of January. February marked the worst market performance in more than two years, and March is shaping up to be volatile and potentially devastating to equity holders.

Stocks have had ample time to recover the February losses but have failed to do so. That's an unmistakable fact underlying the weakening dynamic of the current condition.

On the day, the US dollar index dipped below the critical level of 90, closing at 89.71. The main beneficiaries of the dollar demise were the precious metals, as both gold and silver demonstrated strength. Though the gains were nothing dramatic, the PMs looked today like safe-haven bets, as did the 10-year-note, closing with a benign yield of 2.85%. Oil was banged lower, to 60.90 per barrel in WTI. The Dow has lost 328 points in the past two days, nipping off the excess of Friday's 440-point binge.

There are plenty of frayed nerves at the brokerage trading desks, especially with this coming Friday's options expiration, a triple-witching conclusion to the week.

Dow Jones Industrial Average March Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
3/1/18	24,608.98	-420.22	-420.22
3/2/18	24,538.06	-70.92	-491.14
3/5/18	24,874.76	+336.70	-154.44
3/6/18	24,884.12	+9.36	-145.08
3/7/18	24,801.36	-82.76	-227.84
3/8/18	24,895.21	+93.85	-133.99
3/9/18	25,335.74	+440.53	+306.54
3/12/18	25,178.61	-157.13	+149.41
3/13/18	25,007.03,	-171.58	-22.17

At the Close, Tuesday, March 13, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,007.03, -171.58 (-0.68%)
NASDAQ: 7,511.01, -77.31 (-1.02%)
S&P 500: 2,765.31, -17.71 (-0.64%)
NYSE Composite: 12,831.76, -66.63 (-0.52%)

Stocks a Little Shaky As Dollar Plummets, Silver, Gold Soar

Chalk this up to various theories of unintended consequences.

Even the brilliant thinkers at the Federal Reserve are unable to explain the strange divergence of bonds and the dollar over the past number of weeks because that's not the way it's supposed to go.

With the Fed becoming more hawkish as they attempt to unwind literally trillions of dollars worth of bonds on their vast balance sheet, interest rates have risen, but the value of the dollar in relation to other major currencies has taken a noticeable hit, not just in the past few weeks, but for the better part of the past year.

The mighty US dollar was beaten like a trailer park hooker, down nearly one percent on the day per the dollar index, which, in the forex universe, is a pretty severe move.

Other currencies were the beneficiaries of the dollar demise, with the British pound up 2.4%, Japan's yen up nearly one percent, and the Aussie dollar gaining 0.90%.

Fueled by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that a weaker dollar was good for US trade, currency pairs were traded with one thing in mind: dollar dumping.

Bonds, however, failed to play along, with the 10-year benchmark unchanged at 2.65% and both long and short-dated maturities moving less than a basis point.

Besides the currencies of nations not the United States, commodities were bid large, with WTI oil futures making another in a series of three-year highs and precious metals continuing a rally that began in December but had recently stalled.

Not so today, as silver led the way with a gain of over three percent, topping out at 17.70, the highest since breaking briefly over $18 per ounce in early September of 2017. From a technical perspective, silver has ripped through a long, declining resistance line dating back to its peak in 2011. A clear breakout holding above $17.50 would be a significant development for the world's most unappreciated asset.

Gold was also well-taken, finishing in New York up $16.80 (1.50%), at $1358.70 the ounce.

Stocks meandered along the unchanged line, ending split, with the Dow higher while the NASDAQ and S&P fell.

With many pension funds chartered to rebalance by month's end, the rapid rise of equities in the early days of the new year may be coming to a quick conclusion. Estimates range from $12 to $120 billion of stocks which must be sold and converted to bonds in the next week. If that's the case, it will take a concerted effort from the central bank cartel (who also may be selling into the weakness) to keep the stock bubble adequately inflated.

If there's a downside other than stocks taking a much-needed shave, it's that any decline in the stock market will be blamed on President Trump and his administration's tough currency and trade policies.

The President is set to address the assemblage at Davos on Friday, concluding this year's fete of economic manipulators and would-be statist social constructionists.

The President is expected to deliver remarks touting America's re-emergence as the world's greatest economic force.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 24, 2018:
Dow: 26,252.12, +41.31 (0.16%)
S&P 500: 2,837.54, -1.59 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ: 7,415.06, -45.23 (-0.61%)

Revenge of the Gold (and Silver) Bugs As Dollar Crashes

Stocks may be hurtling towards infinity and beyond, but the long-suffering holders of gold and silver are about to be rewarded for their patience and prescience.

Overnight, the dollar index breached the 90 level to the downside extending the trend which saw the dollar lose the most value in 14 years in 2017.

As the dollar falls, gold and silver can do nothing but appreciate in dollar terms, and with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin speaking out in favor of a weaker dollar, the trend seems set to accelerate.

Meanwhile, the US Postal Service continues to cater to the Amazons of the world by hiking postage rates (particularly to retail and the lowest tier of commercial rates, Commercial Base) and punish small business.

Likewise, cell carrier Verizon continues to throttle the speeds of users of its "unlimited" bandwidth service in spite of regulations and court rulings which forbid the practice.

The corrupt news media continues to taunt the public with stories that President Trump is about to be grilled by special prosecutor Robert Mueller in the "Russiagate" probe, while all along the true traitors are still employed by the FBI and Department of Justice.

It seems that the tree of liberty is ready to be to be quenched again.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 23, 2018:
Dow: 26,210.81, -3.79 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 7,460.29, +52.2568 (+0.7054%)
S&P 500: 2,839.13, +6.16 (+0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 13,474.11, +3.74 (+0.03%)

Tail Wags Dog: Fed 'Beige Book' Provides Rationale for Dollar Buying

Wall Street professionals wiped off all the poop from yesterday's 300+ price collapse on the DJIA and set about to bidding up risky assets to even riskier levels, sending the Dow and other averages soaring to new all-time closing highs.

Making matters even more preposterous, sinister, or outlandish was the reading of the Fed's Beige Book at 2:00 pm ET, which sent the US Dollar index off three-year lows to near the highs of the day at 4:00 pm ET, the closing bell on Wall Street.

If there's a soul left on the planet that hasn't bowed to the power of the Federal Reserve and its host of central bank and commercial cronies, then that person is simply out-of-touch.

Silver and gold have wallowed near multi-year bottoms for four long years while stocks have gone absolutely ballistic. Paper promises are worth much, much more than solid gold or silver in today's phony funny money world.

It's almost enough to make one give up writing on the subject (pondered here nearly every damn day).

Today's gains on the Dow Industrials were the largest since the election of November 8, 2016.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 17, 2018:
Dow: 26,115.65, +322.79 (+1.25%)
NASDAQ: 7,298.28, +74.59 (+1.03%)
S&P 500: 2,802.56, +26.14 (+0.94%)
NYSE Composite: 13,352.39, +105.53 (+0.80%)

Turnaround Tuesday: Stocks Sink Into S---Hole

After soaring over 26,000 in the early going, the Dow Jones Industrial Average - and the rest of the main US indices - took an ugly turn to the negative, an elongated move which comprised nearly the entirety of the trading session.

The Dow, once as high as 26,086.12 fell to an intra-day low of 25,702.99, a 383-point decline. The blue chips gathered some momentum at the close, likely the work of short-covering, as sellers dominated the day's activity.

While the Dow finished with just a blemish, the NASDAQ was more badly injured, dropping nearly half a percentage point, though it too was soaring earlier in the session, as were the S&P and Composite.

There was little news upon which to hang the selling spree and it came as quite a surprise in the opening session following the MLK holiday. The energy and basic materials sectors took most of the downside, falling by 1.16% and 1.43%, respectively. Crude oil lost three-quarters of a percent, with WTI crude ending the day at 63.82 per barrel. The abrupt turnaround in the oil price could be the canary in the coal mine, but perhaps the biggest story of the day was the almighty US dollar, which fell to a three-year low, bottoming out at 90.28, the worst intra-day price since December, 2014.

Having the dollar and oil fall in unison is not the usual course of business. Such activity is the stuff that keeps the stomachs churning on Wall Street. No doubt, copious amounts of bismuth subsalicylate were consumed by belly-aching analysts.

If not apparent enough already, Tuesday's action prompted more than a few to reconsider portfolio allocations and question whether or not the Fed really does have the market's back.

Fear of sliding into some kind of hell hole or other equally unattractive place became paramount throughout the day.

Congress has three days in which to craft some kind of compromise budget, risking yet another blow to its already badly-damaged reputation.

At the Close, Tuesday, January 16,2018:
Dow: 25,792.86, -10.33 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 7,223.69, -37.38 (-0.51%)
S&P 500: 2,776.42, -9.82 (-0.35%)
NYSE Composite: 13,247.85, -46.49 (-0.35%)

Wall Street Tumbles Most This Year; Treasuries, Gold Rally

Sure enough, being the contrary indicator for which Money Daily has become legendary, as soon as this blog issued the "all clear," circa the past two days - citing that the Fed has Wall Street's back - then the bottom falls completely out of the market.

While today's massive declines could be nothing more than a case of jitters over the Washington establishment's fixation on making President Trump's life a living hell, or, a simple matter of profit taking, there's some indication that both may be partially true.

As usual, with everything related to stocks and finance since roughly the year 2000, there's insufficient information upon which to make a decisive call. One day's worth of declines by no means indicates anything fundamentally wrong, and it's likely that this current bout of market indigestion will blow over with the next data release.

Moreover, given that the mainstream media is chock full of creeps, fabricators and liars, it wouldn't be beyond the pale for financial media to be right in the middle of the "fake news" mix. To the point, the headline on Yahoo Finance at today's market close screams, "Stocks tumble as Trump worries Wall Street," as if it's the President himself causing consternation among international financiers, when in fact, it is the news media itself promulgating questionable narratives surrounding the President and his administration.

Thus, there may be something more compelling afoot. Perhaps some of the more recent data releases haven't been particularly rosy, or maybe somebody deep inside the global financial establishment knows something of which the general public isn't keenly aware. That insiders would know more than the public is undeniably true; whether or not there's something big about to occur - and this was just cover for a deeper dive - is a matter of great conjecture.

On the surface, that doesn't seem to be the case. Tuesday's releases showed that capacity utilization and industrial production both beat expectations, but housing starts and building permits missed the mark. Wednesday's release of crude inventories (a drawdown) and mortgage applications (off by 4.1%) shouldn't have catalyzed the market into this kind of paroxysm.

What we do know is that the dollar index (97.456) fell again today (fifth straight decline) and has been below 100 for a full month. That's sent gold soaring (up nearly two percent today), with silver tagging along, though without as much gusto (+0.73%, 16.87/oz.). A falling dollar should be good for US companies, though that correlation hasn't always held true, because US imports in other countries' currencies would cost less.

We also know that today's losses were the worst of the year for the major indices and Treasuries were rallying, with the 10-year yield falling to 2.22% and the two-year moving down to 1.24%.

Thus, the crystal ball remains cloudy. Thursday's market action may be more telling. It's never too late to take a profit, nor is it ever too early to cut losses. Maybe Wall Street has come to its senses.

At the Close, 5/17/17:
Dow: 20,606.93, -372.82 (-1.78%)
NASDAQ: 6,011.24, -158.63 (-2.57%)
S&P 500: 2,357.03, -43.64 (-1.82%)
NYSE Composite: 11,423.54, -182.95 (-1.58%)

Political Theater Weakening The Dollar; Silver, Gold Up

After setting new record all-time highs (again, and again, and again) yesterday, core investors in the S&P 500 took a back seat to the NASDAQ nutcases who pushed the index to another record close.

While this is beginning to be reminiscent of the 1999-2000 tech bubble and bust, we're still in the bubble stage, so hang on to whatever you're not trading. If you must, get some protection in cheap NASDAQ put options to protect your position.

In case you're not invested in stocks or are more interested in baseball, the NBA playoffs or the current political circus in Washington, a close eye on the dollar index might be a suggested tonic, which goes well with either gin or vodka.

Wiht the dollar index down, gold and silver registered nice gains on the day, but, as soon as the crooked dealers at the COMEX get wind of it, that will change. Gold and silver bugs keep hoping that the current fiat system implodes, which would likely enrich them, though that's an old conclusion not necessarily in order these days.

Taking close to a one percent hit on the day (could it possibly be because even Republicans are now openly in opposition to President Trump, along with the requisite fake outrage from Democrats?) the political climate in Washington is beginning to sour experienced traders and geo-political watchers, mostly because it doesn't take a break. The opposition to the current sitting president is outrageous and loud, and the fear is that something is going to break, if not the President's tweeting pattern, then maybe blood vessels on house minority leader Nancy Pelosi's forehead.

Then again, majority leader Paul Ryan's sound bites on the "Trump gave Russia top secret info" fake news has to make one wonder just what the deep state has on him. He looks like a square guy, but he acts like a Democrat, unless, of course, Trump pushes through a healthcare reform bill or something along those lines. Then he's all glad-handing and giddy. The guy has no political future, and, unless the press and the Democrats begin conducting themselves in more decorous manners, neither does the country.

At the Close, 5/16/17:
Dow: 20,979.75, -2.19 (-0.01%)
NASDAQ: 6,169.87, +20.20 (0.33%)
S&P 500: 2,400.67, -1.65 (-0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 11,606.49, -7.75 (-0.07%)

Week Ends Poorly for Stocks, as PPI Indicates Deflation, Euro Falls, Dollar Rallies

Since stocks are close to all-time highs, there isn't much in the way of analysis to explain marginal moves in one direction or another, except along the lines of anticipatory buying/selling in the face of a potential Fed rate hike in June... or September... or never.

That's why it was a little surprising to see stocks fall on news that the PPI registered an outsize negative number this morning, indicative of outright deflation, the one thing of which the Fed and the government are deathly afraid.

PPI had dropped 0.8 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, producer prices fell 0.6 percent, the first decline since the series was revamped in 2009. February PPI, measured on a month-t-month basis, fell 0.5 percent.

Falling prices mean less spending, and less spending begets lower prices in a competitive environment (according to economics 101) and lower prices, as part of the spiral, means lower wages, or, at least no raises in wages, but it's what has been occurring, more or less, since the last financial crisis in 2008-09. One need only know where to look for deals and bargains; they are out there.

But, lower prices cause all kinds of problems for the Fed, already at the zero-bound on rates, because the have no tools to fight deflation, since the entire banking regimen depends on at least some inflation, all the time and everywhere.

Lower oil prices were just the first symptom of the deflation problem, or, maybe the second, following stagnant wages and a lack of job growth (forget the unemployment figures - they're a sham) and now the decline in the price around which everything else revolves has gotten the vicious cycle working overtime. The dollar rising is another ancillary symptom of a moribund economy, one which is about to keel over and die for good, something it should have done in 2009. The other shoe is dropping, and the Fed isn't going to be able to catch this one before it hits the floor with an awful thud. Imports are becoming cheaper, due to just about all our trading partners desperately devaluing their currencies.

The Dollar Index shot up over 100 today, closing at 99.41, a twelve-year high. The euro dipped below 1.05 again. It is rapidly approaching parity with the dollar, and will likely be worth less than a greenback within mere months.

Without inflation, people save instead of spend, pay down debt instead of incurring more, and generally speaking, life gets better for the average Joe or Jane consumer. The honest truth is that banks - at the heart of our global economic malaise - don't want people out of debt, they want them deeper and deeper in debt.

And, if wages stagnate or decline, and people get laid off, the government collects less in taxes and - boo-hoo - they can't service the debt (they can't anyhow, that's proven by our $18 trillion national debt, but that's another story) or provide needed (or unneeded) services.

So, rock, meet hard place. And that's why even if a stinking bad economy keeps Wall Street flush with fresh money from the Fed printing press, it's still a bad economy that is, in the end, unsustainable.

That is about the best guess as to why stocks sold off today, even on BAD news, which was supposed to be GOOD.

Stocks were also down for the week. The Dow fell 107.47 (-0.60%); the S&P shed 17.86 (-0.86%) and the NASDAQ led the downside move, losing 55.61 (-1.13%). It was the second straight weekly loss for the NASDAQ and the Dow, the third in a row for the S&P.

Closing Prices (3/13):
Dow Jones 17,749.31, -145.91 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 2,053.40, -12.55 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ 4,871.76, -21.53 (-0.44%)

Wall street's Week of Worry Ends With JP Morgan Mea Culpa

In a week that will be remembered as one in which the Euro crisis came front and center, Wall Street turned its eyes upon an unlikely victim Friday, that being JP Morgan Chase.

The bank known for its "fortress" balance sheet (pure baloney) confessed to have had made a terribly wrong bet on a risk hedge - a la MF Global? - and poof went $2 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon explained how badly the bank had mistaken the markets in a conference call with journalists Thursday night after the close.

Details were sketchy, though it was widely assumed that there would be other victims in the trade involving a British trader known quaintly as "the Whale." The issue points up that even the brightest of the bright can make mistakes - and big ones at that.

While JPM's misplaced risk hedge sent futures into the tank pre-open (as if they needed any help with that), stocks initially sank, then rallied sharply into positive ground in the morning session, though all gains were ephemeral and summarily whisked away by the close, ending Wall Street's worst week in more than seven months.

Even though losses were tiny - and the NASDAQ managed to close positive by 0.18 points - signs of calamity were everywhere, from German citizens daring Greece to default and leave the Euro, to massive misapprehension over the proposed "Volker Rule" in light of the Morgan fiasco, to spiking Spanish bonds, slowing growth in China and a deflating PPI, which came in under expectations at -0.2% for April.

As the session ended with everybody closing positions in case some new, terrifying developments took place over the weekend, the once mighty, banker-run trading casino closed out the week with players seeking solace and probably more than a few strong drinks to soothe their jangled nerves.

Nobody can tell how events will play out exactly during the coming weeks, though, from the tenor of the trade this week, it seems pretty likely that conditions are not going to materially improve any time soon.

TGIF, indeed.

Of note, the Dollar Index advanced for the tenth straight day, explaining why precious metals have been pounded down so roughly over the past two weeks; and, new lows bettered new highs for the fifth day in the past six.

Dow 12,820.60, -34.44 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,933.82, +0.18 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,353.39, -4.60 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite 7,816.48, -36.27 (0.46%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,692,045,125
NYSE Volume 3,727,488,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2225-3322
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 107-131
WTI crude oil: 96.13, -0.95
Gold: 1,584.00, -11.50
Silver: 28.89, -0.29

Correlation Trades Correlating, Kind of; Jobs Data Up Next

Remember those correlation trades that were discussed at length yesterday and how they weren't exactly correlating?

Well, today, they worked a little better, though they are still skewed against their traditional trading bias.

The Euro was flattened today, hitting a new 12-month low against the US Dollar, and, for a while, that seemed to be working as US stocks were down heavily in morning trading, but, as soon as Europe's equity markets closed at 11:30 am ET, stocks began drifting upwards, and the momentum stocks on the NASDAQ actually finished with healthy gains while the S&P and Dow (which had been down as much as 134 points earlier) finished basically flat.

With the Euro hitting below 1.28 to the dollar, the Dollar Index responded with a one percent gain (80.949, +0.818), reaching a one-year high. That sent oil prices lower, as it should, despite the continuing wagging of tongues by both the Iranians and the leaders of the EU. While the EU's move to embargo all shipments of oil from Iran to Europe, is a bit of a dodgy move (Iran's exports to Europe only account for 20% of their oil exports), so too is Iran's statement that they can and will shut down the shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz.

It looks like the classic Mexican standoff, with the US pointing its guns directly at the Iranians. The Europeans will likely go through with their threatened sanctions, but the Iranians will probably not want to evoke the ire of the United States, because that would produce something along the lines of World War III, even though that may be what Iran wants and the rest of the (un)civilized world needs.

Europe's woes continue non-stop, with the ultimate Ponzi scheme of the banks buying sovereign debt, and the ECB financing the banks. It's the most disingenuous way of dealing with a solvency crisis - by adding layers and layers of liquidity - and it eventually will either spark runaway inflation, riots, government overthrow or the breakup of the European Union, and it's possible that all of the above could occur.

As for gold and silver, they were back in tandem, though with the higher dollar, they both should have been lower, instead of up, which they were, supposedly on global tensions and safe-haven status.

The other news of the day involved US employment figures from ADP, which reported a gain of 325,000 private sector jobs in the US, seasonally adjusted. The number was so large, and so far removed from official predictions (guesses), that traders generally ignored them, opting to wait for the equally-well-massaged non-farm payroll report from the BLS tomorrow.

That report, which will be issued at 8:30 am ET, should be a market mover, especially if it aligns well with the ADP number, but skeptics abound, and the estimates are for the US to have added somewhere between 120-175,000 new jobs, which would indicate exactly what? The BLS numbers are guestimates at best, but traders will likely take their cue from whatever blather comes from the Labor Department.

Stay tuned. It's going to get more bizarre as the year progresses.

Dow 12,415.70, -2.72 (0.02%)
NASDAQ 2,669.86, +21.50 (0.81%)
S&P 500 1,281.06, +3.76 (0.29%)
NYSE Composite 7,599.97, -12.18 (0.16%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,859,210,875
NYSE Volume 4,264,649,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3391-2193
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 140-37
WTI crude oil: 101.81, -1.41
Gold: 1,620.10, +7.40
Silver: 29.30, +0.20

Correlation Trades Breaking Down: Decoupling, Distress or Distribution?; Kodak Prepares for Bankruptcy

There have been, for many months, certainties in global markets from which investors and speculators could readily rely upon and profit from. The most obvious of these is the straightforward relationship of the Euro and US stocks.

Whenever the Euro was positive against the US Dollar, stocks would post gains as well. Euro down, stocks down. A simple trade for those speculators adroit enough to move money quickly in and out of currencies and stocks. It also created a very nice hedge for monied investors with a keen sense for geo-politics and the movement of money.

Another of these correlation trades has been in effect for years, even decades. when the Dollar Index (^DXY) moved higher, the price of a barrel of oil would go lower, since oil and almost all other major commodities are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar would thus buy more oil, or wheat, or soybeans, for instance.

Today, however, these two stalwarts of the inner, holistic trade deviated from their seemingly-predetermined paths. The Euro was off sharply, but stocks finished with modest gains or were flat, nonetheless. And the Dollar Index was up nicely, (80.097 +0.434 0.54%), but oil marched higher despite the obvious overpricing and general lack of demand over the past two weeks.

The oil moves could be partially blamed on the Iranians and Europeans. Europe has set the parameters for a complete embargo of Iranian oil. For its part, Iran says it doesn't need to sell oil to europe as it has many other trading partners, China being the largest. The Iranians also say they can effectively shut down shipments of oil from other countries by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the free flow of energy from the region to Western nations.

While that's all well and not-so-good, it still doesn't explain the dislocation of the Dollars-for-oil trade and is entirely based upon speculation.

As for the Euro and US stocks, it wasn't a large move away from the direct correlation, but notable. Then there's silver and gold, the two precious metals that should always move in tandem, as they have for maybe thousands of years. Gold was up, silver down on the day, making silver, already a cheap cousin, even cheaper and wildly undervalued compared to gold, where the standard gold-silver ratio has traditionally been somewhere between 12:1 and 16:1, now stands at a stunning 55:1. It has been higher over recent years as gold shot up much faster than silver, but, if global tensions are accelerating, both metals should become good bets short term, though it stands to reason that silver would appreciate at a much faster rate, as it did in the first four months of 2011.

All of that implies that both the gold and silver (and not to mention stocks, commodities and currencies) markets aren't rigged, a condition that reams of evidence over many years say is so.

OK, then what's up with these markets if correlation trades, usually among the most reliable and steady, continue to break down? Is it decoupling for Europe, global distress or some technical distribution which the markets haven't anticipated from a zero interest rate policy and massive money printing (in shady but effective forms) by central banks around the globe? If oil goes up as the Dollar Index improves, so will stocks, and the precious metals will do whatever the manipulators deem necessary. It's not yet a trend, but bears watching, because decoupling often is a harbinger of even more fractured conditions in markets, which would make perfect sense in this mad world.

Something else bearing watching is the anticipated disappearance of the Kodak moment. The film maker has been on the ropes for years as the company failed to develop a strategy shifting from film cameras to digital photography, and the stock has suffered badly, losing almost all value over the past decade. A Wall Street Journal report today that the company was preparing to file a chapter 11 bankruptcy either this month or by early February should they not find buyers for their digital patents - valued, dubiously, at over $1 billion - sent shares plummeting.

Shares of Eastman Kodak (EK) finished the day down 0.18, to 0.47, a 28% decline. The company has also received a delisting notice from the NYSE, as the price of the stock has traded below $1 for more than a month, in violation of exchange rules.

That the company would eventually commit corporate hari-kari should come as no surprise. The stock traded as high as the low 80s in the late 1990s, and dropped permanently below 60 when the dotcom boom went bust in 2000-2001. Since then, the losses have mounted and the share price decline has been precipitous. This is a dead company without a product or strategy, which has wiped out its dividend, shareholders, and soon, pensioners, sure to be shuffled off to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, another backhanded bailout by the US taxpayer.

Dow 12,418.42, +21.04 (0.17%)
NASDAQ 2,648.36, -0.36 (0.01%)
S&P 500 1,277.30, +0.24 (0.02%)
NYSE Composite 7,612.15, -12.17 (0.16%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,654,986,250
NYSE Volume 3,553,585,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2475-3130
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 102-34
WTI crude oil: 103.22, +0.26
Gold: 1,612.70, +12.20
Silver: 29.10, -0.48

A Major Dose of Reality and the Beginning of the End of Paper Money

Confirming yesterday's hypothesis that "something is wrong," stocks righted themselves to the steady flow of horrible economic news on wednesday and took their largest losses in months.

What really sent the markets into a deep funk was the release of the ADP private payroll survey, which showed job gains for the month of May to be only 38,000, when most estimates ranged from 175,000 to as high as 300,000. That sent futures tumbling in the hour just prior to the open and stocks did a complete reversal from Tuesday's glorious rally, which, truth be told, was based on nothing but hot air, or even cold air, but air, nonetheless.

Once traders had tasted the bitter flavor of selling winners and losers alike, the ISM manufacturing index came in at 10:00 am, well below expectations of 57.0, at 53.5, after notching a 60.4 handle in April. Despite still being positive (above 50), it was the worst reading since the fall of 2009.

Lumped on top of Tuesday's Chicago PMI and Case-Shiller housing report, the first week of June looks like it may be a tide-turning one. The euphoria of Tuesday's happy-face rally all but extinguished, investors, economists and government talkers must face the grim reality that the economy is sputtering, even after trillions in stimulus over the past two-and-a-half years.

The fallout from the long series of poor to horrible economic reports was that the benchmark 10-year note fell to its lowest level since last summer, checking in at 2.94%, after closing at 3.06 yesterday. Sub-3% yields on the 10-year is swell for borrowers, but it also belies a grim truth: that the economy is dead in the water, and there is nowhere to go but into the relative safety of fixed income, albeit at very unattractive yields.

Dow 12,290.14, -279.65 (2.22%)
NASDAQ 2,769.19, -66.11 (2.33%)
S&P 500 1,314.55, -30.65 (2.28%)
NYSE Composite 8,281.59, -195.69 (2.31%)

Declining issues overwhelmed advancers, 5420-1222. It was the biggest rout of 2011. Still hanging on for dear life, the new high-new low indicator showed the NASDAQ dead even at 74 new highs and the same number of new lows. On the NYSE, a bit more resilience, with 101 new highs and 38 new lows, though once again, the margin is shrinking and it's only a matter of time before the market flips right over and a full-blown correction can be announced.

Naturally, since nobody wants or likes to face the reality of the situation, the US and global economies are almost completely kaput. Nothing more than wasted effort printing worthless Dollars, Euros and Yuan will be the requisite response from the league of central bankers whose policies have been exposed as outright disasters. A great reckoning is upon us, and those who have not prepared will be blind-sided and left in tears with paper assets worth nothing.

Volume was on a par with Tuesday's, unsurprisingly, though one could have expected even heavier selling. Apparently, not everyone is convinced that the game is over. The Too Big To Fail banks are still holding out hope for more dollar devaluation for the Fed and more handouts via the strapped and wrecked taxpayer base.

Of the more curious aspects of today's global melt-down was that the dollar actually looked like the best of a bad lot, rising 0.364 to 74.90, though that condition is - as the Chairman might express - transitory. Eventually, all paper money will be debased to nothing as the world sinks into global depression.

NASDAQ Volume 2,316,268,250
NYSE Volume 4,920,608,500

Of some small consolation to millions of consumers, oil fell abruptly, down $2.41, to $100.29. While still about $25 higher than it should be, the price of crude and the resultant price of gasoline should ease over the coming days and weeks to reflect the true status of the economy. Nothing kills growth as quickly or completely as high oil and gasoline prices, and, even though demand has been falling steadily since the average price of a gallon of unleaded gas hit just below $4.00, the price still remains a drag on the overall economy, at $3.77.

Gold was the greatest beneficiary of Wall Street's loathsome session, hitting a two-month high at $1551.20, before falling back to $1539.10, up $4.10 on the day. Naturally, the central banking cartel could not let silver go untouched, smashing the second precious metal down $1.65, to $36.82. Of course, in a deflationary depression, the metals offer no great relief, though they will tend to outperform all other asset classes and when the collapse of all fiat money occurs, they will shine as saviors.

June is shaping up to be a killer for the stock markets. Even though the ADP employment report has been widely criticized, there's little doubt that Friday's non-farm payroll report for May will be nothing short of disastrous, showing quite clearly that all the stimulus and wanton speculation of the past two years has done nothing to repair the deep wounds to the Main Street economy.

What little hope there is can be found amongst those who believe it is time for honesty and a change of policy, that people be favored over wealthy banks and their criminal CEOs and that government, if unable to serve the needs of the people, will be left behind. As during other times of hardship, the American public will turn to barter, black markets and other underground economies. Governments at all levels will be left holding onto unwieldy deficits as tax receipts fail to materialize.

The more one pays attention to what comes out of the mouths of bankers, government officials and elected legislators, the more one comes to realize that they have no interest but their own at heart and the American people will carry on without them, even if it means wholesale tax rebellion at every level. The system is burdened with unassailable costs and debts that cannot be paid. When and if congress decides to actually come to grips with these harsh realities, we will begin healing, though most with any sense of history feel that government has lost all control and the people are about to begin fending more or less for themselves.

Of course, the government will continue kiting checks to the "needy" and keeping the masses at bay with food stamps and other entitlement outlays, but the value will continue to erode and the already well-entrenched, wretched sub-class of welfare and government dole recipients will suffer even more.

It is truly a remarkable time in the world's history, and probably better to be young than old, for the young have the advantage of time - to repair, replenish and rebuild that which our absent leaders have destroyed.

Correlation Trade: Dollar Up, Stocks Down

After a roller coaster type of week, the major indices and commodities ended fairly flat, but that's how the skimmers of Wall Street make their dough: bidding prices up and selling out underneath momentum buyers. This is a fun game for them, not so nice for individual investors, but eventually all the trades will go in one direction and it won't be good for anyone except committed short sellers.

Stocks really got off to a piddling start, but accelerated mid-day, with the Dow down as much as 150 points. While the Dow rallied into the close a bit, the NASDAQ stayed down at finished at its low point of the session.

April CPI was a non-event, coming in at expectations of 0.4% gain for April. Michigan Consumer Sentiment showed a small rise, to 72.4, from 69.8 in March. Despite the steep drops on the averages, it was, all tolled, a pretty dull session. The major trade consisted of shedding stocks (risk) as the dollar advanced, closing at 75.793, up 0.60 as measured by the Dollar Index. It's become the most reliable correlation trade: dollar up, stocks down.

Dow 12,595.75, -100.17 (0.79%)
NASDAQ 2,828.47, -34.57 (1.21%)
S&P 500 1,337.77, -10.88 (0.81%)
NYSE Composite 8,371.67, -84.51 (1.00%)

Declining issues roared past advancers, 4790-1789. On the NASDAQ, the gap tightened with 97 new highs and 51 new lows. A similar situation prevailed on the NYSE with 182 new highs topping 22 new lows. Volume was back in the doldrums, signaling the beginning of the summer season, with traders taking off early and heading for the hills, the Hamptons, or Hades.

NASDAQ Volume 1,885,009,375
NYSE Volume 3,921,132,750

Commodities put in an equally lackluster performance, though most were trending lower through much of the day. WTI crude oil on the NYMEX, down most of the session, caught a bid late in the day, finishing up 68 cents, at $99.65. Gold was swamped today, losing $13.10, to $1493.80, while silver managed to eek out a small, 64 cent gain, at $35.26.

There was a lot of posturing and positioning, but no real commitment on the buy side. Sellers won the day and the week as we inch ever closer to the end of QE2.

Finally, financial stocks took the brunt of the selling, with Bank of America (BAC) down 27 cents, to 11.93, Citigroup (C) shedding 89 cents, to $41.53 despite declaring a .01 annual dividend. Apparently, investors were not impressed. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) lost 94 cents, to $43.15 and Goldman Sachs (GS) dipping 1.29 to 141.46.

Continued pressure on the banking sector is symptomatic of the sluggish economy and may portend another round of trouble for the mega-banks. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.

Ponzi Schemes, Bubbles and Manipulation Rampant in US Markets

What follows bizarre?

On the absurdity scale, probably irrational, or maybe unbelievable.

That's exactly where US markets are now and for the foreseeable future - or until about the middle of June. Nothing makes sense on the surface, but there are correlations. Below the surface are machinations of big money players, central banks, the Too Big To Fail banks here in the US and Europe and whatever whacky game they're playing in the two biggest Eastern economies - China and Japan.

Consider that the dollar index spent the overnight gaining, fell sharply during the morning in the US, spent the next two hours rising, and ended the day with two hours of flatness, resulting in a final prinat at 4:00 pm EDT of 73.095, a paltry gain of 0.051, hardly a blip on anyone's radar.

Now, the Dow did follow along at the end, though it made all of its gains, back to a small print higher for the day, in the final hour of trading, bouncing back from a 50-point loss.

Meanwhile, silver had its worst one-day decline since the Hunt Brothers got wiped out in 1980. Sure, silver was overvalued on a very short-term basis, but the meaning of the massive, manipulated crash was to get the price back down to where JP Morgan and the rest of the shorts wouldn't be losing theirs. The attacks since Sunday night on the paper silver market, in conjunction with margin hikes by the COMEX, have had the desired effect. Silver is down, the US dollar will live for another day, week, a few months, maybe even until the presidential election in 2012.

Oil finally had its comeuppance, for a day, but if anything is a bubble, it is not silver, which has been suppressed for decades, or gold, which has broken out of the stranglehold of the big banks, but oil and stocks. Crude oil has doubled in the past year along with stocks over the past two years. Some stocks are up as much as 300, 400, 500% or more from the March, 2009 bottom to today. Normal markets do not double in one or two years. One only need to look at the massive amount of stimulus thrown at the markets via the Federal Reserve to see where the bubbles lie.

Where will everything go from here. A guess is a good as anyone can make right now, but if Ben Bernanke is serious about ending QE2 on schedule in June, one can probably side with deflation over the short term, a long-overdue market correction, and crashing interest rates.

Of course, the Fed can't allow interest rates to rise, since that would bankrupt the US government, so their only option is to reign things in, allow the stock market to correct and hope it doesn't crash as money will flow into medium term bonds. The speculative plays in commodities will cease to exist and the dollar will bounce.

That's a best guess scenario, until the next financial crisis, caused by either the Fed, the banks or the government, occurs. And one will occur, because one always does. Heck, it's been almost three years since the last one, so we're probably overdue.

In the long, long run, it's a depression, plain and simple. The Fed cannot continue printing money at a breakneck pace, nor can the government borrow at ridiculous speed, especially when the two biggest buyers of our debt (after the Federal Reserve, via the PDs and POMO), Japan and China, have their own issues and are not all that sound, economically-speaking.

In a world so tangled and cross-reliant, there are no safe havens, only places that will do better than others. Sure, the good, old USA will likely outperform Greece and Ireland, but Germany appears to be the only sane economy in the world, followed maybe by Brazil or India.

Dow 12,807.51, +0.15 (0.00%)
NASDAQ 2,841.62, -20.22 (0.71%)
S&P 500 1,356.62, -4.60 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite 8,584.68, -64.93 (0.75%)

Declining issues took the measure of advancers for the second straight day, 4471-2090, and if this kind of lopsided A/D line continues another day, we'll have no problem calling it a trend. On the NASDAQ, there were 60 new highs and 39 new lows, closing in on equilibrium. At the NYSE, 141 new highs and 22 new lows were recorded. And, surprise, surprise, volume was actually solid today; not a very positive sign for markets.

NASDAQ Volume 2,225,012,000
NYSE Volume 4,968,288,500

The commodity trade seems to e blowing up all over the place. WTI crude futures fell $2.47, to $111.05, when traders were shocked to find that there was actually a glut of oil sloshing around waiting to be turned into useful products, like gas, plastics, etc. The world has been led to believe that there's no more oil out there, that the political disruptions in the Middle East will cause production declines, when nothing is further from the truth. The oil wells and fields will keep on producing through revolution or peacetime, money is money, everywhere in the world, after all. There is simply a greedy cartel of nations and companies that like the price in the stratosphere and people need to drive their cars, run their engines, so it goes.

Gold was squelched a bit again, down $8.50, to $1537.10 at the moment, but that was nothing compared to the raid on silver, which is currently down $2.27, to $41.66. Remember, silver was almost $50 per ounce last week. A line has been drawn in the sand by the central banks and, more importantly, the silver shorts at JP Morgan and HSBC, who have won this battle, though the war carries on apace. Silver is eventually going to $150 on the open market and there's nothing they can do about it, long term. All they have is their paper market in the SLV and PSLV EFTs and they will eventually break down, when all participants require physical metal and they won't have enough.

That's where we stand today, on the precipice of failure of fiat money, for what it's worth.

Buy More Stocks Because the Dollar is Worthless

If anyone has any kind of notion that today's massive uptick in stocks had anything to do with the strength of the US economy, they'd better go back to economics 101 and check the chapter on currency devaluation.

Oh, there is no chapter on that? Well, allow me to explain how the dollar was absolutely savaged by - of all things - the Euro, and a host of other currencies including, but not limited to: the Aussie dollar, the Canadian looney, the Chinese Yuan and especially, the Swiss Franc.

On the dollar index (not a particularly great way to value US paper money, but sufficient for this discussion), the loss was 74 cents, or nearly one percent, meaning everything you buy that isn't produced in the United States - which is just about everything - costs 1% more today than it did yesterday. The corresponding rise in stocks only helps alleviate the pain for the richy-rich amongst us, but they usually find tax dodges or off-shore accounts for their hordes of cash anyhow.

The rest of you schmucks are just going to have to take it, see? You pay more so the Fed can print more billions, give them to the primary dealers and allow the government to continue overspending until eternity, which is a long, long, time. Next week, it will likely get worse, with gas heading for $5.00 a gallon nationally, and everything else going up accordingly, eventually, the average household will be able to buy food and fuel and little else, all the while watching those who own stocks make fortunes.

While the wizards of Wall Street frolic in the fields of greenbacks, you and I will be left holding the bag, containing manure, and be taxed into oblivion. Don't worry about Medicare and Social Security, most of us will die off before any benefits are actually paid out.

It's an ugly, severely evil set-up by the banks and our hands-out congress to create two distinct classes in the United States: the super, super rich and everyone else. You and I must learn how to raise our own crops and subsist off the land leased by our wealthy masters. Welcome to the golden age of feudalism!

I have nothing more to add except that if you haven't started some plants growing in your back yard and already own some silver or gold or both, you need to do so immediately, as time is running short and planting season is upon us. We are nearing the point of complete collapse of the middle class.

If your kids are planning to go to a big university and go into hock to the tune of $40, $50 or as much as $100,000 to get their degree, it might be time to sit them down and explain that their high school diploma will be sufficient, in their bleak future, to work as a mechanic, a gardener, or a chamber maid. Their dreams of becoming the next great biologist or astronaut will have to be put on indefinite hold.

Dow 12,453.54, +186.79 (1.52%)
NASDAQ 2,802.51, +57.54 (2.10%)
S&P 500 1,330.36, +17.74 (1.35%)
NYSE Composite 8,457.65, +125.62 (1.51%)

Advancing issues pounded decliners, 5245-1347. There were 133 new highs and 29 new lows. On the NYSE, 193 new highs and 16 new lows was the order of the day. Volume was relatively solid on the NASDAQ, where all the momentum stocks reside, but the usual miserable figures were posted on the NYSE. Almost all of the day's gains were made at the open, so the futures players made fortunes; the rest of the session was nothing more than churning.

NASDAQ Volume 2,112,464,250
NYSE Volume 4,657,346,000

Crude oil made a huge move of nearly 3%, gaining $3.17, to $111.45, making that $5.00 gallon of gas that the oil barons dream about that much closer to reality. Gold blasted through the $1500 mark again, but was taken down to $1,498.90, a gain of a mere $3.80. Silver continues to dazzle, gaining another 54 cents on the day, finishing in New York at $44.46.

While some argue that gold and silver are bubbles, if that is the case, then what is to be said of stocks, which have doubled off their March 2009 lows? Gold and silver are only a third to a fifth of the way to where they are eventually going. With every new dollar printed by the Chairman of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, an ounce of precious metals costs a little bit more, and that's about the only good news I can report today.

EDIT: Following the COMEX close in New York, gold bounced to $1502.10, and silver shot up to $45.22 an ounce at 5:18 pm EDT.