Weekend Wrap: Dow Goes Positive For Week On Friday Ramp

Logicians need not apply.

Following the disappointment of the BLS August Non-Farm Payroll data, the general assumption was that stocks would sour, as also presaged by the index futures on the Dow Mini, et. al..

Such was not the case. Stocks rose throughout the day, based upon algorithms interpreting all news as positive, giving the Dow Industrials its best gain since July 25th.

The NASDAQ ended the week with both the best point and percentage gains, +74.60, and +0.96%, respectively.

One very prescient observation is that while volume has all but dried up the past few weeks, it's much easier for stocks to find bids than otherwise.

A resumption of the more serious selling seen in February and March is unlikely to occur until after Labor Day.

These are certainly dog days, a period in which short-side players should exercise extreme caution.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03
8/3/18	25,462.58	+136.42	+55.05

At the Close, Friday, August 3, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average, 25,462.58, +136.42 (+0.54%)
NASDAQ: 7,812.01, +9.33 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 2,840.35, +13.13 (+0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 12,953.34, +55.27 (+0.43%)

For the Week:
Dow: +11.52 (+0.05%)
NASDAQ: +74.60 (+0.96%)
S&P 500: +21.53 (+0.76%)
NYSE Composite +32.00 (+0.25%)

Stocks Split As NASDAQ Soars; Jobs Report Disappoints

Stocks shrugged off a slow start on Thursday after Wednesday's sluggish session and finished split for the second straight day, with the NASDAQ and S&P posting gains while the Dow and NYSE Composite were held to small losses.

With the US congress mostly out of town for the month and earnings season winding down, the market is prone to swings in either direction at the slightest rumor or data dump.

The Dow has fallen back into the trading range that was prevalent after the February and March drop-off, while the NASDAQ gravitates near recent record closes.

The big news for Friday is the July non-farm payroll report from the BLS. Analysts were expecting 191,000 new jobs per the data, but had to settle for 157,000, well below the estimate. The unemployment rate fell one tenth of a percent to 3.9%.

Released at 8:30 am EDT, the jobs report comes as a disappointment for the bullish case. Stock futures had been strong and trending higher until the release, but fell sharply leading into the opening bell.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37
8/2/18	25,326.16	-7.66	-89.03

At the Close, Thursday, August 2, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,326.16, -7.66 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 7,802.69, +95.40 (+1.24%)
S&P 500: 2,827.22, +13.86 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 12,898.07, -4.32 (-0.03%)

Dow Backtracks As Fed Holds Rates Steady

The two probably aren't related, but the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 1.75-2.00 percent and the Dow lost 81 points.

On the other hand, the NASDAQ gained 35 points, also likely unrelated to anything.

With the FOMC set to meet again September 25-26, there's nearly two months for the market to grasp what's happening in the global scheme of things. There's nearly unanimous opinion that the Fed will increase rates another 25 basis points at that time.

Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
8/1/18	25,333.82	-81.37	-81.37

At the Close, Wednesday, August 1, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,333.82, -81.37 (-0.32%)
NASDAQ: 7,707.29, +35.50 (+0.46%)
S&P 500: 2,813.36, -2.93 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: 12,902.39, -60.89 (-0.47%)

July Best Month Since January for Dow Industrials

Ending the month of July with a spirited, sugar-coated, window dressing rally, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the best month of gains (+1143.78) since January (+1430.17).

While that number may be pleasing to the buyers of stocks in much of 2018, longer term holders will note with interest that the close on July 31 is lower than the close on January 31 and significantly lower than the all-time high reached on January 26, 2018 (26.616.71). It is 1201.52 points lower than that January 26 close, or nearly four percent off the high point.

Five percent may not sound like much, but, in the perspective of a six month time frame, it's impact become clearer. From February to June, stocks languished in what could be seen as equity limbo. They were worth less than they were in January and still are.

In real terms, a $100,000 portfolio in January would be worth about $95,000 today. Optimists might see the glass as half full, adding that the very same January $100,000 portfolio was worth only about $90,000, when the Dow bottomed out at 23,533.20, on March 23, a dip of more than 10% from the all-time high.

Year-to-date, the Dow has gained 695.97 points, or, less than three percent. In monthly terms, that's a gain of less than one-half of one percent. Nobody's calling their mother to tell her how great they're doing in the market. Neither is anybody crying in their beer over any loss.

Stocks, and the global economy, remain at a significant crossroads.

Dow Jones Industrial Average July Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
7/2/18	24,307.18	+35.77	+35.77
7/3/18	24,174.82	-132.36	-96.59
7/5/18	24,345.44	+181.92	+85.33
7/6/18	24,456.48	+99.74	+185.07
7/9/18	24,776.59	+320.11	+505.18
7/10/18	24,919.66	+143.07	+648.25
7/11/18	24,700.45	-219.21	+429.04
7/12/18	24,924.89	+224.44	+653.48
7/13/18	25,019.41	+94.52	+748.00
7/16/18	25,064.36	+44.95	+792.95
7/17/18	25,119.89	+55.53	+848.48
7/18/18	25,199.29	+79.40	+927.88
7/19/18	25,064.50	-134.79	+793.09
7/20/18	25,058.12	-6.38	+786.71
7/23/18	25,044.29	-13.83	+772.88
7/24/18	25,241.94	+197.65	+970.53
7/25/18	25,414.10	+172.16	+1142.69
7/26/18	25,527.07	+112.97	+1255.66
7/27/18	25,451.06	-76.01	+1179.65
7/30/18	25,306.83	-144.23	+1035.42
7/31/18	25,415.19	+108.36	+1143.78

At the Close, Tuesday, July 31, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,415.19, +108.36 (+0.43%)
NASDAQ: 7,671.79, +41.78 (+0.55%)
S&P 500: 2,816.29, +13.69 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 12,963.28, +59.85 (+0.46%)

Stocks Fall

Stocks opened flat on Monday and losses accelerated throughout the session.

There was no apparent catalyst spurring the decline, so it can safely be assumed that any selling was prompted by valuation measures as the major indices remain close to all-time highs.

Dow Jones Industrial Average July Scorecard:

Date	Close	Gain/Loss	Cum. G/L
7/2/18	24,307.18	+35.77	+35.77
7/3/18	24,174.82	-132.36	-96.59
7/5/18	24,345.44	+181.92	+85.33
7/6/18	24,456.48	+99.74	+185.07
7/9/18	24,776.59	+320.11	+505.18
7/10/18	24,919.66	+143.07	+648.25
7/11/18	24,700.45	-219.21	+429.04
7/12/18	24,924.89	+224.44	+653.48
7/13/18	25,019.41	+94.52	+748.00
7/16/18	25,064.36	+44.95	+792.95
7/17/18	25,119.89	+55.53	+848.48
7/18/18	25,199.29	+79.40	+927.88
7/19/18	25,064.50	-134.79	+793.09
7/20/18	25,058.12	-6.38	+786.71
7/23/18	25,044.29	-13.83	+772.88
7/24/18	25,241.94	+197.65	+970.53
7/25/18	25,414.10	+172.16	+1142.69
7/26/18	25,527.07	+112.97	+1255.66
7/27/18	25,451.06	-76.01	+1179.65
7/30/18	25,306.83	-144.23	+1035.42

At the Close, Monday, July 30, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,306.83, -144.23 (-0.57%)
NASDAQ: 7,630.00, -107.42 (-1.39%)
S&P 500: 2,802.60, -16.22 (-0.58%)
NYSE Composite: 12,903.43, -17.91 (-0.14%)