Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Bailout Nation: Careening Toward the Zombie Apocalypse

Beneath the superficial aspects of the coronavirus - the hospitals, the deaths, media deflection, Presidential dithering, lockdowns, social distancing, and the state-by-state re-openings - there exists a subculture of cash, credit, debt, default, and the eventuality of a global depression.

The question is not whether there's going to be a recession - there will be, without a doubt - it's how long the depression will last and how deeply affected will be various segments of the economies of nations and those nations themselves.

This is an extremely complex scenario that will not be evenly distributed. Some people will prosper while others decline. Some will go broke. Others will simply give up and die. It's an absolute certainty that there will be more losers than winners, many many more. Knowing that, the federal government, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve, has set about the process of bailing out everybody, or, nearly everybody. The problem is, they've not gone about the process with much foresight, they have no comprehensive plan, and the result has been a sloppy patchwork of band-aids, unkept promises, imbalances, and knee-jerk, short-term remedies.

Wall Street got their money right away, small business got shafted, twice, wage-earners, especially those in low-wage jobs, got a bonanza to the extent that the $600 extra unemployment benefit doled out by the Fed has in some cases doubled the take home pay of a huge chunk of the workforce. Anybody making minimum wage or anything less than $15 per hour has experienced a tangible benefit. The unfortunate part of this is that the additional unemployment benefit vanishes in about four months, or, for most people, sometime during August. Whether the federal government will step in again at that point to provide more relief is, at this juncture, a speculation.

Meanwhile, most seniors receiving Social Security or Railroad Retirement benefits, haven't seen a dime, despite the late March pledge from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin that they would have their money ($1200 per person plus $500 for each qualifying dependent) within two weeks. It's going on six weeks and the money still hasn't arrived. The latest promise is that direct deposits would be made this week. Don't count on it. Mnuchin has proven that his priorities lie mainly with big business and Wall Street banks, not with the people who matter, the citizens, the taxpayers, the consumers. He's effectively relayed the message to seniors that they don't matter at all.

All the time, but especially during times of crisis, people should be judged by their actions, not their words. If there's a judgement to be made on Steven Mnuchin, he would be deemed an awesome character by the one-percenters and upper crust, and a outright liar and scoundrel by just about everybody over the age of 62.

The problems with the quick-fixes that have come out of the Fed and the federal government are multiple. They're temporary. They solve nothing. They're largely unfair. They won't work long term. Not for the stock market, not for the banks, not for states and cities, not for pension plans, and especially for the backbone of society, small businesses and the people they employ, or, rather, employed, because most small businesses in the United States are dead men walking. If they haven't already closed their doors forever, never to return, they're on the verge of collapse, as is the rest of the country, despite nobody in government or the media actually leveling with the people.

Next up on the list of bailouts are cities, counties and states, which have experienced massive losses to their revenue base and will see those losses multiply over time. They are coming to the federal government with outstretched arms, awaiting their turn at the feeding trough of unlimited capital. A business owner who doesn't pay property taxes because his business has been shut down for a month or six weeks or longer is one thing. The loss of sales tax revenue is another, and one that will continue long into the future. Again, the feds can only do so much. It's up to the local and state managers of their various governmental units to take action, and sooner rather than later.

Cutting back on services and employment should have been happening in March and April, but it hasn't. Teachers get paid. Cops and firemen get paid. Sanitation workers get paid. Clerks and paper shufflers get paid. All the while the cities and counties are bleeding revenue. Their collapse is imminent and they have only themselves to blame for decades of living high on the hog that is the taxpayer, without regard to emergencies, without planning for even a slowdown from the stock buyback, free money largesse of the past decade. Their demise, along with the platinum health care plans and pension, are at extremely high risk of being insolvent and overdue for a significant haircut. They're counting on the federal government to bail them out, but at issue is which ones get bailed out first and for how much? Will red states get more than blue states? Will big cities get a better piece of the pie than rural communities?

It's likely, actually, it's not only probable, but a near-certainty that any government bailout of cities, counties, and states will be as uneven as the handling of the first few rounds of government aid to private business and citizens. It's going to be a disaster of magnificent proportion because not only will the federal government take too long to deliver, they'll almost certainly deliver less than is necessary, and the help will be only temporary. There is no good way out. Like the companies who are being propped up by the Fed via purchasing of their commercial paper, the Fed can't stop at buying up muni bonds; it has to come in with actual cash to keep the lights on in every city, town, and village across America.

In the end, everything goes dark. While trying desperately to not sound like a broken record, Wall Street firms will fail, banks will fail, governments will fail, companies will die, people will die, but not until there's a massive outbreak of civil unrest, the first springs of that having already been seen in the "reopen" protests that have flourished at state capitols and elsewhere around the country.

As the coronavirus has proven to be less of a threat to human existence than previously thought, the feds and state governments continue to respond as though it is a return of the Bubonic Plague or Spanish Flu. It's not, and the response has been a massive overreach that has destroyed the economy and people's already wavering confidence in leadership and government. It has only just begun and the levels of protest, unruliness, incivility, lawlessness, and violence will only increase over time. When the extra unemployment insurance runs out in August and there are still 12-15 million people out of work, the cat will have come out of the bag, and it will be not a tame household kitty, but a hungry, untamed lion, set out to ravage the nearest prey, and that prey will be neighborhoods, local governments, and the unprotected. The resultant destruction to the social fabric will be devastatingly real and not just close to home, at your home or your neighbor's home or in it.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but it isn't COVID-19 that is screwing the country and the world, but the government reaction to it. As has already been made evident, government is not only not the solution, it is the problem itself.

Presently, the Fed has managed to keep the stock markets from imploding and possibly from shutting down altogether. They've actually managed to boost prices for many companies that should be heading to the bankruptcy courts rather than to the Fed's liquidity spigot. Since April 8, all the major indices have traded in a well-defined range, an overt signal that the Fed is in charge, keeping the markets stable while the VIX remains elevated. It's a manipulation and a thorough destruction of capital markets. Stocks and bonds are effectively controlled by government now, and thus, are DOA.

While stocks were reaching for yet another giddy day in their make-believe land of rich and plenty, General Motors (GM), at one time a bastion of industry and a beacon of capitalism, a company the taxpayers bailed out a decade ago, announced on Monday that it was suspending its 38 cents quarterly dividend, halting the buyback of its own stock and bolstering its lines of credit. Gee, thanks, GM. Please turn the lights out before you close the door. GM should have been allowed to fail in 2008. Now they will just burn more cash, screw their investors and permanently dis-employ hundreds of thousands of workers in the auto business and its suppliers.

GM has about 164,000 full time employees including Chairwoman of the Board and CEO Mary Barra, whose pay last year was $7.36 million, not including stock options and other bonuses and benefits. Not only has she managed to completely decimate the company's balance sheet, but she's managed to raid the company coffers to her benefit. The company is likely to survive for a few more years, but, after bankruptcy proceedings, within four or five years, the number of full time employees will be zero, and Ms. Barra and all her hourly and salaried workers can compliment her on the bang-up job she'd done throughout the coronavirus crisis, culminating in the wholesale looting and destruction of the company.

With that news as a backdrop, GM tacked on half a point Monday, closing at 22.45 a share. The company publicly disclosed assets of 228 billion and liabilities of 182 billion. With the expectation that the assets are overvalued and liabilities on the rise, it won't be long until GM is permanently upside down. Give it six months before all hell breaks loose.

GM is not alone. Most companies are going to slash dividends, workers, expenses and tap into their lines of credit as the quarterly reports flow this month and next, but Wall Street seems to like the idea, rallying on Monday with futures ramping higher into Tuesday's opening.

This is what a dysfunctional market looks like.

On the day, treasuries acted as though the recovery had already begun, with the 30-year upping its yield from 1.17 to 1.25%, the 10-year note up seven basis points to 0.67% and the curve steepening to 114 basis points. When the curve falls to below 100 basis points (one percent), that will be the signal that the crisis is deepening.

Oil got whacked again on Monday, WTI crude dropping from its Friday close of $16.94 per barrel to $10.76. Gold and silver were up early down late on futures trading, but that doesn't matter since physical is still elusive and premiums are through the roof, up to $135 on an ounce of gold, as much as $7.00 or more on silver.

Dominoes are falling. Get out of the way. Within six months, there will be more zombie companies, zombie banks, zombie governments and zombie people, all kept alive by the Federal Reserve. Unlike vampires, which can be killed with silver bullets or stakes to the heart, the only way to kill zombies is to blow off their heads.

Ready, aim...

At the Close, Monday, April 27, 2020:
Dow: 24,133.78, +358.51 (+1.51%)
NASDAQ: 8,730.16, +95.64 (+1.11%)
S&P 500: 2,878.48, +41.74 (+1.47%)
NYSE: 11,264.84, +246.94 (+2.24%)

Sunday, April 26, 2020

COVID-19 A Massive Scam Perpetrated At the Highest Levels, Media, Industry, Finance Complicit

Just about everything being shoved down the throats of Americans (and, we can safely assume, the rest of the world) about the coronavirus by the mainstream media (MSM) is either questionable, being drawn into question, refuted, or outright bunk. Examples will be given in this installment of the WEEKEND WRAP.

The United states is approaching one million confirmed cases of the virus, and has already surpassed 50,000 deaths. The actual number of cases of the virus is orders of magnitude higher, as preliminary antibody studies from New York and California have shown.

The California study, undertaken in Santa Clara county, home to San Francisco, shows that "prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50 to 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases,” the authors wrote. Published on April 17, the number of confirmed deaths in Santa Clara County was 99, meaning that the true mortality rate is somewhere between 0.12 percent and 0.2 percent, meaning that roughly one or two people in every thousand would die from the virus, a number very close to that of the ordinary seasonal flu.

The same kind of results are shown in New York, where 13.9% of people in New York's first antibody study tested positive, meaning they had the virus and recovered; that means up to 2.7 million people could have been infected statewide and the mortality rate would have been roughly 0.5 percent, not the 4.5 to 6 percent that the media has been touting. There are also widespread reports of the numbers being artificially inflated, throwing in all deaths of people who tested positive for COVID-19, regardless of the underlying cause.

The federal government has been doling out billions of dollars to states via the CARES act which, through Medicaid, pays hospitals $13,000 for COVID-19 patients, upping the bounty to $39,000 if one is put on a ventilator.

As many as 80% of people put on ventilators die, and many doctors are refusing to use them in treatment of severe cases, though hospital administrators - in dire need of funding - continue to push for their use, despite the findings that prove a suspiciously-poor recovery rate.

The ongoing controversy over hydroxychloroquine, in conjunction with zinc and sometimes, arithromycin, which Money Daily has already covered on Thursday, April 24 continues to rage between the truth and the mainstream media's fear angle.

Here's Laura Ingraham with an expert cardiologist explaining why the media shouldn't be running around with their hair on fire over the FDA's warning about hydrochloroquine:



...and then there's the complete nonsense about "flattening the curve" through stay-at-home orders, lockdowns, staying six feet apart that has decimated the global economy.

The effect of the lockdown was to keep the hospitals from being overrun. In the entire United States, few hospitals have been overrun with COVID-19 patients, mostly in New York City, Boston, and a few other hotspots. Most hospitals have treated very few coronavirus sufferers. It wasn't about saving lives because the disease will still spread, albeit at a slower pace. Additionally, the vast majority of people who die from coronavirus are elderly and/or suffering from other maladies (co-morbidities).

According to statistics out of New York City, 95% of the deaths due to coronavirus were from 45-75+ years of age.

Moving on to testing, all that testing is going to do is probably enrich the companies that make the tests and confirm that a lot more people than previously assumed had contracted COVID-19 and are now immune.

Instead of shutting down the entire economy, the rational approach would have been to quarantine seniors and people with pre-existing conditions - primarily diabetes, high blood pressure, heart-related ailments - but that wasn't considered. Instead, we've trashed more than 200 years of capitalism over an infectious disease that's barely more deadly than the seasonal flu. It will rank as one of the greatest blunders (or planned event) in the entire history of the planet.

The conclusion is that all developed nations were in on the coronavirus scam (or, as some are calling it, the plandemic) because the elites already had a plan in place to disrupt national economies, destroy governments, enslave people, and usher in a new world currency while covering up the imminent crash of stock markets and, eventually, all fiat currencies. The entire process will take years - it's been underway for decades - but this was a major part of the overall effort, and it seems to be succeeding.

The main casualties so far:

Nursing homes
Small businesses
Sporting events
Concerts
Cruises
Colleges
Confidence

Winners:

Wall Street
Big Government
Mainstream Media (MSM)
Health Care / Big Pharma

Bah! You've been had, and the after-effects are going to be even worse.

Now, on to the markets, or, what's left of them.

Stocks had an up and down week, but ended down with all but the NASDAQ finishing with losses of just under two percent. The darling NASDAQ was nearly flat, losing just 15 points (-0.18%). This was just the second weekly loss of the last five, since the Fed stepped in last month with massive funding programs.

Despite trillions being thrown at banks and what are now zombie corporations, the major indices are still in bear markets, though they are all resting right about at their 50-day moving averages.

If anything, they seemed to have plateaued for the time being. Another downdraft could be coming, but, with all the Fed currency behind them, shorting this market is strictly for those who can afford massive losses. Being in this market for any reason is simply a fool's errand. Stocks are headed toward a massive crash, which has only been prevented by the Fed. Eventually, fundamentals matter, and many major corporations, since stock buybacks are now frowned upon, have resorted to leveraging up with debt, conveniently purchased by the Federal Reserve and their unlimited currency campaign.

Oil magically rebounded after posting negative numbers upon the maturity of May futures. June futures for WTI crude are resting comfortably at $16.94 a barrel. It's a bonanza for drivers, with prices at the pump the lowest in a generation. Gas hoarding, once people get back on the road, could be a real thing. It's cheap, why not?

Treasury bonds are a graveyard. The curve flattened out to a mere 107 basis points as the long end collapsed. Yield on the 30-year fell to 1.17%, while one-month bills ended the week yielding 0.10%. The 10-year note finished out the week with a yield of 0.60%. Since demand for treasuries is shrinking rapidly, the curve and steepness or flatness of it will hardly matter any more. The Federal Reserve will be buying most, if not all, of the issuance within months as monetization takes flight fully. The disaster in capital funding, like most of the rest of the monetary and fiscal weirdness, has only just begun.

Bonds are screaming that the condition of the economy is one of being on a deathbed with Dr. Fauci overseeing the patient. It's sure to continue a downward spiral, leading to death. Getting people back to work won't alleviate the condition since many small businesses will not reopen. The onrush of bankruptcies and credit defaults are about to accelerate. Many renters - commercial and residential - are planning on not paying their rents come May 1, which is this coming Friday, suggesting that this week may look like a picnic compared to the carnage caused by the realization that a good third of the country is going broke the first full week of May.

Gold and silver made gains on the COMEX, and were little changed, though lower on eBay, where buyers can actually get physical precious metals delivered on a reasonable time basis (1-4 days). Dealers are still placing premiums on both gold and silver, and delivery times remain weeks off with many of the more popular items still out of stock.

Here are this week's figures from sales on eBay:
Item Low High Avg. Median
1 oz silver coin 25.15 31.74 27.57 27.44
1 oz silver bar 23.20 31.16 26.34 25.85
1 oz gold coin 1,819.85 1,962.25 1,884.09 1,880.50
1 oz gold bar 1,849.95 2,002.65 1,901.98 1,893.92

To close out this edition of the WEEKEND WRAP, a final word about the lockdown and states "opening up" as it were: We should not have been in lockdown in the first place. The coronavirus, or COVID-19, is not a killer disease for more than 90% of the population. It now appears, after blowing out all the hyperbole and media spin, that the state-by-state lockdown was pre-planned at the highest levels. It was completely unnecessary, as evidenced by the results out of Sweden, which was one country which chose not to torpedo their economy. The Swedes have experienced the same or fewer cases of infection per capita and fewer deaths than their counterparts. Their example is the one which should have been followed.

Additionally, as part of the plan to bail out Wall Street and next, the states themselves, economic conditions are more likely to continue deteriorating over the near term. Accumulating hard assets is advisable, whereas investing should be regarded as gambling in a rigged casino, unless you are ultra rich and have inside information. Most of us do not.

Go out and hug somebody. COVID-19 is a massive psy-op designed to demoralize and dehumanize. Don't let them win.


At the Close, Friday, April 24, 2020:

Dow: 23,775.27, +259.97 (+1.11%)
NASDAQ: 8,634.52, +139.77 (+1.65%)
S&P 500: 2,836.74, +38.94 (+1.39%)
NYSE: 11,017.90, +101.20 (+0.93%)

For the Week:
Dow: -467.22 (-1.93%)
NASDAQ: -15.62 (-0.18%)
S&P 500: -37.82 (-1.32%)
NYSE: -190.40 (-1.70%)

Friday, April 24, 2020

Banks Profit From Coronavirus; Governments Equivocate; Fed Keeping Stocks Afloat

Since there is too much information being thrown around on the coronavirus crisis, here are some of the top headlines:

Stocks rallied again after another 4.4 million people filed for unemployment relief, but the gains were wiped out when the World Health Organization (WHO) leaked a report that suggested trials on Gilead Science's (GILD) treatment drug, remdesivir, were not going well. Gilead finished down 4.2%, and the entire US stock market complex finished the day essentially unchanged.

Thursday, as the House pushed through $484 billion in round two of the bailout loan program for small businesses, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and other big banks raked in $10 billion in fees for processing the first round of small business PPP loans. As they usually do, the federal government made sure to take care of their major campaign donors. One burning question: since Ruth Cris is returning the $10 million loan they received, is JP Morgan Chase returning the $100,000 fee they "earned" for processing the loan?

Then there's this video that shows Fox News reporter John Roberts and New York Times photographer Doug Mills in the White House coronavirus press briefing room this past Tuesday caught on a hot mic. The two discuss the fatality rate of the virus, with Roberts saying it's between 0.1 and 0.3 percent, and Mills responding that it's in line with the ordinary flu. Some news outlets are characterizing the video as misleading, suggesting the two are joking. Judge for yourself.

According to a study by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) which highlighted Thursday's White House press briefing, warm weather, sunlight, and low humidity could have mitigating effects on coronavirus. This theory has been bandied about since the early days of the pandemic, and there's been no substantial evidence to claim that normal summer weather will slow down the spread of the virus or kill it completely, though most flu viruses are negatively affected by warmer weather.

The best evidence is likely anecdotal, as countries with warm climates in the Southern Hemisphere and near the equator have actually been less-severely affected by COVID-19 than more northern countries like the United States, Russia, most of Europe and Canada. For instance, Australia, which first began reporting cases of the virus in February (similar to Northern Hemisphere's July), has had 6,674 reported cases, but only 78 deaths. Malaysia, whose capitol, Kuala Lumpur is situated 350 km or 217 miles from the equator, has reported 5,691 cases but only 96 deaths. This suggests that while the spread may be slowed somewhat, the virility, or severity, of the virus may be diminished. Time will tell, especially in the US and Europe, as warmer weather approaches and states and countries begin reopening their economies.

Since April 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index of 30 leading US companies, has traded in a very thin range between 22,634 and 24,232, a mere 1,598 points in an extremely volatile market. The COBE Volatility Index, or VIX, which tracks volatility, has been below 39 just two times since March 5. Normally, the VIX holds between 10 and 18 with great regularity. Anything above 20 is considered to be edging toward extreme and readings over 40, which have been common during the coronavirus campaign, are rare. On March 18, the VIX registered a reading of 85.47, exceeded only by a high mark of 89.53, on October 24, 2008, at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.

Managing to keep the Dow in such a tight range can only be due to the Fed's massive inputs of cash to primary dealers via various funding vehicles created during the coronavirus crisis. Trillions of dollars have flowed to banks, who routinely put that currency to work buying stocks and keeping blue chip equities in a fairly well-defined pattern. Stocks go up, they go down, they go back up. The Fed is in control of what used to be a free, fair market. Freedom and fairness in publicly-traded stocks hasn't existed for quite some time. Now they are virtually extinct entities.

What most of the headlines and alternative media narrative suggests is that the global public is being used, abused and largely misinformed. Governments in developed nations are employing the virus and public lockdowns as cover for the failed global fiat currency economic system that will have to be replaced shortly, within six months to three years, depending on how long those in power can keep people from overthrowing the entrenched oligarchs, kleptocrats, cronies, and assorted liars and thieves in government, business, and the media.

When the new world currency is announced, it will likely be all digital (blockchain technology) because paper and coin currency is "dirty" and "may carry viruses." At least that would seem to fit the accepted game plan that's being etched out on an ongoing basis. It will be up to individuals - not governments - to either accept or reject new currencies offered by the same people who destroyed the old system or opt for alternatives like gold, silver, bitcoin, and the tried and true efficacies of bartering goods and services.

There may indeed be more than one global currency: one for international trade and governments, and one for everyday commerce by the people. Whatever occurs, the next few years are likely to be convulsive and disruptive to what most people consider normal.

At the Close, Thursday, April 23, 2020:
Dow: 23,515.26, +39.44 (+0.17%)
NASDAQ: 8,494.75, -0.63 (-0.01%)
S&P 500: 2,797.80, -1.51 (-0.05%)
NYSE: 10,916.67, +8.11 (+0.07%)

Thursday, April 23, 2020

Neo-Feudal Living Through Mainstream Media Propaganda Financed By Big Pharma

Everything is fake these days, especially financial news, which spills over boundlessly into politics and society. The fact that Big Pharma is the main funding source for mainstream media brings into question everything about the COVID-19 pandemic and government and media response.

In case there's any doubt, consider the recent news reporting on a Veteran's Affairs hospital study which concluded that Hydroxychloroquine - a generic drug used to treat malaria - is not a reliable treatment for coronavirus. Being mindful that the treatment, combined with Azithromycin in some cases, and in conjunction with zinc in early stage COVID-19 sufferers, has proven effective in shortening the length of time from infection to recovery, it's difficult to buy the claims by the study's authors, though that's exactly what the anti-Trump, big pharma-owned mainstream media did.

Never mind that President Trump was a big fan of Hydroxychloroquine, or that the research was neither done with random sampling nor was peer reviewed. The media just took the bait and ran with it, ostensibly in favor of the Gilead Science's more expensive proprietary drug, remdesivir, which is about to undergo real clinical trials.

Bear in mind that the mainstream media, especially television news, is sponsored mainly by Big Pharma. In between the two-to-four minute bouts of propaganda, commercials for drugs to treat everything from cancer to strokes to foot fungus are paid for by the likes of Pfizer, Roche, Novartis, Johnson and Johnson, Merck, Sanofi, AbbVie, Glacxo Smith Kline (GSK), Amgen, Gilead Sciences, and others. Here's a list of the Top 50 global pharma companies, which are also among the leading political donors.

The use of Hydroxychloroquine in conjunction with zinc and azithromycin for treatment of COVID-19 patients has been the focus of French physician and microbiologist, Dr. Didier Raoult,

Rauolt's twitter feed - mostly in French - is very active and strongly in favor of the treatment, which he claims limits the severity of the disease and shortens recovery time.

In the United States and in many developed countries, the mainstream media outlets, plus Google and Facebook, have been actively censoring Dr. Raoult's findings, the most recent of which involved successful treatment of 3000 patients, resulting in a death rate of 0.5 percent.

Raoult has extensive experience in treating viruses and getting positive results and is highly respected within the scientific community. His work spans decades and is frequently cited in leading medical journals. So, why does the mainstream media downplay or censor the importance of his work? Because hydroxychloroquine is very inexpensive (about 10¢ per dose) and Big Pharma can't make any money off generic cures.

Peak Prosperity's Dr. Chris Martenson breaks down the phony VA "study" and cites scientific evidence to conclude that the VA's review of patients in latter stages of the disease was "garbage." in this exceptional video. You are strongly urged to watch it and make up your own mind.



Getting to recent developments, the Labor Department reported minutes ago that another 4.4 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the past week, bringing the five week total to over 26 million.

Meanwhile, the US economy is floundering, as are the economies of almost all developed nations. The global depression, brought to you by the Federal Reserve in conjunction with the US federal government, the fake mainstream media and Big Pharma, is in full bloom and will affect life p in varying degrees - for billions of people for years.

Buy gold and silver if you can. Also consider bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies and getting off the electrical grid as much as possible, returning to a simpler lifestyle and out of the modern-day, neo-feudal rat race.

Finally, this clip from Family Guy offers metaphor for how many Americans (especially seniors who didin't file taxes in 2018 or 2019 -- think: poor people) feel about Treasury Secretary's five-week old promise to have $1200 checks in the hands of Americans "within two weeks."



At the Close, Wednesday, April 22, 2020:
Dow: 23,475.82, +456.94 (+1.99%)
NASDAQ: 8,495.38, +232.15 (+2.81%)
S&P 500: 2,799.31, +62.75 (+2.29%)
NYSE: 10,908.56, +202.12 (+1.89%)

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

Where Are We, And Where Are We Going?

A month of social distancing, self-isolation and coronavirus fear media spin has probably done more to damage the social fabric and hasten the collapse of the global economy faster than any other event in history.

Isolation, a technique usually deployed against heinous criminals and terrorists has made its way to the mainstream and the result was predictable: protests across the country demanding that states re-open their shuttered economies sooner rather than later.

So far, the protests have been mild and peaceful, but violence is just around the corner and this game of political chess has only just begun. As the government continues to play out its poorly-chosen scenario to stem the advance of coronavirus it has alienated and frustrated a population that was already on edge. Forcing citizens to stay home, businesses to close, and strictly enforcing rules in an effort to contain a pandemic is likely to turn out to be a poor choice in terms of controlling the citizenry, none moreso than in America, where independence is inbred and following orders largely a matter of choice.

So far, a few states have relaxed their mandated strictures, and more will follow, but the damage to psyche of the nation has been severe and this may only be the beginning of a long, tortuous calamity.

The first true casualty was the collapse in the price of oil on Monday, as the May futures contract ended deep into negative territory, an outcome that could only happen in a controlled, contrived environment such as the exchange itself, the NYMEX. Entities long oil got slaughtered while the shorts carried the day and the profits fro a failing system. The June contracts aren't looking any rosier, with WTI crude checking in Wednesday morning in a range of $7-11 per barrel. As expiration nears, less than a month out, a similar outcome may await the breathless traders in search of not oil, but profit in fiat currency.

An oil price shock such as occurred on Monday is anathema for central bankers and economies built on producing the world's energy supply. Long-term ramifications are difficult to ascertain with such limited knowledge, but besides the obvious carnage this will cause in oil-producing nations such as those in the Middle East and Russia, US shale producers - who were already on the brink of collapse anyhow - are going to default in droves, leaving empty holes in some bank balance sheets.

Naturally, President Trump has ordered Treasury and Energy departments to find a solution, though none will be handy. More meddling by the government, and more bailouts by the Federal Reserve will only serve to enrich those who failed, at the expense of everyone else.

What happened in the oil market will happen in other markets. Prices should, and will, collapse, at first, as demand becomes nil and supply is overabundant. Certain foods will be cheap as oversupply is drawn down, but then will become increasingly expensive as the means of production are disrupted or shut off entirely.

Around and around this circle of supply and demand will go in markets that are already distorted by government mandates, price controls, subsidies, and other devices which serve to prop up industries. In the end, everything will go bust, including the currency, but directly prior to that, stocks, then bonds, will go belly up.

Currently, because of the business shutdowns across the country, small business closures are expected to expand well beyond normal circumstances. That will serve to slow derivative businesses, suppliers, intermediaries, wholesalers. There will be winners, most of them well-known publicly-owned corporations which have been spared the worst of the crisis thanks to trillions in loan guarantees and purchases by the Federal Reserve. Eventually, not even the "infinite" resources of the Fed will be enough to fend off a depression that will bankrupt entire industries and individuals. It could take years, but only months in certain segments of the economy, as illustrated by the oil price collapse.

America and the rest of the world is entering a phase of political, economic and social unrest that has never been precisely pondered. Not since the Great Depression of the 1920s has anything even remotely similar to what's ahead been considered, a world of limited supply, eroding confidence, wild swings in financial markets, currency debasement gone wild, all overtopped by a neo-feudal police state bent on keeping the status quo intact and the general population under control.

There are any number of ways to get around the conditions that prevail and will likely become somewhat unbearable, but the best are to divorce oneself from the system that is causing the carnage. Just as one would rationally flee a burning building, individuals and families, armed with knowledge and a strong survival instinct would be well-advised to have been preparing beforehand. Barring that, immediate departure from populations centers would be advisable.

It's already a known fact that urban and suburban areas have been hit the hardest by the coronavirus and the knock-on effects of the shutdowns. Rural areas have been left relatively unscathed as "social distancing" is the natural order in these places. Neighbors, rather than separated just by walls or back yards, are acres away, and the people like it that way. Thus, it behooves anyone who wishes to escape the coming general mayhem to find accommodations far off the beaten path, preferably with some acreage and own supplies of water and, to some extent, energy, making a working well and at least some solar panels and ready supply of fuel (propane being the most accessible) essential.

A good wood-burning stove would likely be a solid investment, along with a stand of trees, at least enough to last a few winters. Anybody who has never tended a garden would be well-advised to get up to speed as quickly as possible. This summer should serve as a tutorial for future endeavors.

Antenna TV will be preferred over cable or satellite, at least on a cost-forward basis, and some good radio equipment, batteries, and a knowledge of broadcast antennae will go a long way toward providing some entertainment and information when situations become critical.

While Money Daily has focused on financial markets, it also has never shied from being critical of control mechanisms like the Federal Reserve or any form of government. It also has consistently advocated self-sufficiency as a panacea for a better overall lifestyle. Most of what is being suggested here could be found in just about any prepper manual, and yes, guns, the ability to use them properly, silver, gold, and good equipment have also been consistently advocated in our message.

As for debt, especially the unsecured kind, like credit cards, don't worry about it. Just about everybody is going to eventually default, so, one can either join the maxed out crowd in the courts (which will be a zoo), or try to maintain some semblance of balance and propriety. The best condition would be to have no debt, though that's somewhat unrealistic for the vast majority of people. It's nothing to fret over, though. Banks and corporations default all the time. That's why we have bankruptcy laws and plenty of lawyers and judges to plead and administer them.

A bleak future for some does not have to be a bleak future for you. Read up on the history of the Great Depression and you will find that rural folks, although dirt poor, still had the means to survive, some - outside of the Dust Bowl states - to actually prosper. Food on the table, wood chopped and stacked, think not so much about prosperity, but survival first.

More to come...

At the Close, Tuesday, April 21, 2020:
Dow: 23,018.88, -631.56 (-2.67%)
NASDAQ: 8,263.23, -297.50 (-3.48%)
S&P 500: 2,736.56, -86.60 (-3.07%)
NYSE: 10,706.44, -297.44 (-2.70%)