What Paychex Earnings Report Tells About The Pandemic, Lockdowns, the Future

With the second quarter closing out last week, investors look ahead to what promises to be a challenging earnings season, as April, May, and June were marked by the impact of the coronavirus and resultant government responses to containing its spread.

Stay-at-home orders, forced business shutdowns, and other social distancing recommendations during the period had an indelible impact on business globally. Especially hard-hit were small to mid-sized companies many of which contract with Paychex (PAYX) for their tax accounting and payroll administration.

Paychex (PAYX) announced its fiscal fourth quarter earnings prior to the opening bell on Tuesday, reporting net income of $220.7 million, or 61 cents a share, in their fiscal quarter ended May 31, down from $230.4 million, or 64 cents a share, in the year-earlier period.

The company was expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.60 per share, so it is technically a beat in Wall Street parlance, but the company has given some reason to pause, considering this statement by Chief Executive Martin Mucci:

"We currently anticipate that cash, restricted cash, and total corporate investments as of May 31, 2020, along with projected operating cash flows and available short-term financing, will support our business operations, capital purchases, share repurchases, and dividend payments for the foreseeable future."

The company ended the quarter with $1.0 billion in cash and $801.9 million in debt and pays an annual dividend of $2.48 (3.19% yield). Along with ongoing operations their outflows are tremendous and the accumulated debt has been growing over the past two years. While their cash to debt ratio is still positive, they may be headed for zombie territory if the companies they do business with fail to remain going concerns.

Paychex repurchased $350 million of its common stock from July 2016 through May 31, 2019, and more than $500 million prior to that. A year ago, the company announced a share repurchase program of another $400 million.

After reaching a high of 90.23 on February 20, the price of Paychex shares was cut nearly in half, hitting a low of 50.39 on March 23, as panic over the coronavirus hit Wall Street hard. Since then, share price improved to a closing price of 77.78 on Monday, July 6, though after the announcement, shares were sliding in pre-market trading.

This particular earnings report does offer some insight, even though it's backdated to May 31. Some of their business may have taken a hit in June and there may be more going forward, as there's a lag time between companies going bust and formally ending their business relationships. Paychex's fortunes may not be so rosy going forward. The company sees earnings and revenue falling in 2021, a gloomy picture for a perennial high-flier and another negative for the economy. As far as stocks - and, in particular, Paychex - are concerned, their performance will largely be the function of investor sentiment and the level of largesse bestowed upon Wall Street by the Fed in the next round of emergency financing.

Here's another somewhat frightening vision of the future: The only restaurants will be chains like Applebee's, Taco Bell, and McDonald's.

It just could go that way since most mom-and-pop individually-owned restaurants were forced to shut down during the COVID crisis and most of them don't have the financial resources to weather a shutdown for a month or longer. It's already been estimated that more than half the small, local one-location restaurants in America will be permanently out of business by September, if not sooner.

Those that are fortunate enough to stay in business will likely be burdened by loans they were forced to take on due to the government lockdowns. And, as the above-linked article suggests, the chain reaction to other businesses servicing restaurants may be even more severe, affecting delivery services, linen companies, pest-control firms, farmers, and even the local and state taxing authorities, who will take an enormous hit to revenue when hundreds or thousands of sales tax and property tax producers are no longer around.

Under this scenario, companies like Paychex, which cater to small businesses, could see dramatic declines in revenue and profits.

Elsewhere, Argentina's government representatives have apparently sweetened the deal for bond-holders in the ongoing discussions over some $65 billion in debt on which the country recently defaulted. The deadline for a formal agreement has been pushed back (again) to August 4.

Stay liquid.

At the Close, Monday, July 6, 2020:
Dow: 26,287.03, +459.67 (+1.78%)
NASDAQ: 10,433.65, +226.02 (+2.21%)
S&P 500: 3,179.72, +49.71 (+1.59%)
NYSE: 12,160.01, +168.49 (+1.41%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Second Quarter Ends on High Note, Though Systemic Banking Collapse Is Still Feared

Stocks had a solid week, albeit shorted by a day due to Friday's national holiday, though the recent rally has stalled out over the past month. Despite the sharp rally in equities, prices remain somewhat subdued when put into an historical context.

For instance, since peaking in January of 2018 (13,657.02), the NYSE Composite, the broadest measure of equity valuation, is lower by 12.20 percent, though it did make a new high January 2020 (14,183.26).

The Dow Jones Industrial Average of 30 blue chip stocks followed a similar pattern, peaking at 26,616.71 in January, 2018 - and rallying significantly since then to a high of 29,551.42 - the current price of 25,827.36 shows just how much of a toll the coronavirus and subsequent governmental actions have taken on the industrials.

The NASDAQ and S&P 500 have fared better. Close to its all-time high, the NASDAQ closed out the week at 10,207.63, a massive 25.50% gain from the August 2018 high of 8133.30.

The S&P finished the week at 3,130.01, a measly rise of 6.43% when it reached a then-all-time-high of 2940.91 in September of 2018.

Obviously, being in the riskiest, most prone to speculation stocks has been a winning formula.

Can the winning on the NASDAQ continue without worry of second slump this year? It was less than four months ago when all markets were battered, the NASDAQ dropping to a low of 6641.32 (March 23). Investors with the most extreme risk profiles made fortunes. A gain of 53.70 percent in a span of just three months was the reward for those lucky enough to buy exactly at the bottom and sell right at the top (10221.05) just over a week ago.

With the close of the second quarter, it's time to look ahead, with a focus on the major banking interests in the United States. Bank stocks have generally been pretty well beaten down since the crash in March and most have not recovered to any great extent.

Bank of America (BAC) cratered to 18.08, and closed out this week at just 23.29, not much of a rebound. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) bottomed at 79.03 and closed Thursday at 92.66. Citigroup (C) dipped as low as 35.39. Thursday's close was 50.55. Wells Fargo (WFC), possibly the most vulnerable of the big banking interests, fell as low as 22.53 on May 15, closing out this week at 25.34.

Overarching the activity of the Fed-infused institutions are some fears from the extent of forbearance on all manner of loans, from credit card debt to car loans to mortgages. Many individuals have not made payments on loan balances since April or May and the dearth of revenue has to be taking its toll on the banking balance sheets.

Beyond the revenue decline and potential that people and companies in forbearance (which only delays payments and does not forgive them), the banks have to manage millions of loans (secured and unsecured), some of which will surely end in default, the banks eventually forced to write them down. Thus, it's a safe assumption that the banks will be reporting major loan loss reserves when they report in less than two weeks.

Atop these huge issues is the risk taken in Collateralized Loan Obligations. The banks are out on a very shaky limb there.

How bad is the CLO market? Depends on who you ask. Banks will tell you that they only invest in AAA tranches of CLOs, so their risk is minimized. Companies that are on the receiving end of loans and are placed into tranches - from AAA all the way down to junk, CCC, CC C, C- - give an entirely different perspective.

It cannot be understated that CLOs consist primarily of loans made to companies which have exhausted all other forms of borrowing. They are undeniably the worst credit risks.

There are signs that the CLO market is too big, too unregulated, and risks collapse as oil companies, under pressure from falling crude prices, and retailers, shutting down in droves due to the coronavirus and lockdown edicts in most US states, are leading the lower tranches into default.

As the credit market unwinds (this all takes time... months, years) banks will be under pressure to increase their loan loss reserves, as they showed in first quarter financial reports. Loan loss reserves are likely to be magnitudes higher when second quarter results for the biggest banks are turned out in a few weeks (all the majors, BAC, JPM, GS, MS, WFC, C, from July 13 - July 17).

Another threat to big banks comes from the recent spike in COVID-19 cases in Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, and Georgia.

Bank of America Corp., with $618 billion in deposits across those five states, as per 2019 data; Wells Fargo & Co., with $467 billion; JPMorgan Chase & Co., with $420 billion, and Truist Financial Corp., with $140 billion are the biggest lenders at risk.

Keep a close eye on banks this earnings season and beyond. The risk of systemic collapse is growing by the day. If the coronavirus scare increases over the next few months, banking collapse would not be such an unfathomable outcome, no matter how much the Fed manages to prop up the major instituations.

Crude oil, that engine of progress and the grease of economies, continues to bump up against the $40/barrel mark for WTI crude. Reaching a high of $40.72 on June 22nd, WTI approached that apex, cresting at $40.65 on Thursday before settling down to $40.32 on Friday.

Investors in precious metals were witness to one heck of a week as silver blasted through $18.00 a troy ounce hitting a high of $18.40, and gold rocked close to $1800 ($1790), though both were tamped down on futures markets as the week progressed. Gold finished up at $1774.40. Silver closed at $18.02 on Friday, July 2nd.

While the futures (paper) markets continue attempts to suppress price advances in precious metals, the physical market continues to spin higher with no abatement in the size of premiums charged by dealers and acceptable to savers. The most current prices for selected items on eBay (as we have been now tracking for three months) are presented below (shipping, often free, included):

Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 25.95 / 31.95 / 29.01 / 28.99
1 oz silver bar: 24.45 / 33.00 / 29.00 / 29.45
1 oz gold coin: 1,853.82 / 1,976.95 / 1,897.92 / 1,892.50
1 oz gold bar: 1,853.57 / 1,941.42 / 1,869.76 / 1,861.50

Bonds rallied moderately over the four-day week, but only on the long end. Yield on the 10-year note went from 0.64% on the 26th of June to 0.68% on July 2. Over the same period, the 30-year yield advanced from 1.37% to 1.43%. The entire complex steepened from 125 basis points to 130, not a significant move, though the curve is shaped considerably differently than six months ago, and quite a bit steeper. On January 2nd of this year, 1-month bills yielded 1.53%, a massive change from Thursday's 0.13%, and the 30-year bond yielded 2.33%, a range of merely 80 basis points or 0.8% from trough to peak. That's flat.

The current composition of the treasury yield curve can be considered better aligned toward investment, though not by general banking standards. Taken into context, the curve, on July 1, 1994 (a much better period from an economic standpoint) was steep and healthy, with the range from 3-month (4.32%) to 30-year (7.62%) a stunning 330 basis points. The 10-year note was yielding 7.34% at the time. On can only imagine the wreckage that would be brought about today with those kinds of yields.

While savers would be adequately rewarded for frugal habits, corporations and governments would be smashed into oblivion with massively higher debt burdens. This comparison illustrates just how far afield the Fed has gone to preserve fractional reserve lending and the dramatic slowdown in the velocity of money. Considering the current economic climate, it is difficult, if not impossible, to imagine interest rates ever returning to a healthy or normal condition.

The Fed has created money out of thin air in the trillions of dollars and painted themselves into a corner of insanity that ultimately ends with the destruction of capital and currency on a cataclysmic scale.

What's not being reported by American mainstream media is the extent of flooding in China and India caused by recent heavy rains at what is just the beginning of the monsoon season.

This is a story which bears attention. the loss of lives due to flooding and potentialities for malnutrition and starvation due to crop loss - especially rice and rapeseed - is alarming.



On that sour note, this weekend is a wrap.

At the Close, Thursday, July 2, 2020:
Dow: 25,827.36, +92.39 (+0.36%)
NASDAQ: 10,207.63, +53.00 (+0.52%)
S&P 500: 3,130.01, +14.15 (+0.45%)
NYSE : 11,991.52, +89.97 (+0.76%)

For the Week:
Dow: +811.81 (+3.25%)
NASDAQ: +450.41 (+4.62%)
S&P 500: +120.96 (+4.02%)
NYSE: +387.10 (+3.34%)

It's Time to Say Good Bye to China

Nearly 50 years ago, then-president Richard M. Nixon opened the door to trade and normalized relations with China.

The exact date was February 21, 1972. Months later, on November 7, 1972, Nixon was re-elected in a landslide victory over Senator George McGovern of South Dakota, winning 60.7 percent of the popular vote and 520 electoral votes, to McGovern’s 37.5 percent and 17, respectively.

On August 8, 1974, Nixon left office as the House of Representatives was preparing to launch an impeachment inquiry for his attempt to cover up and participation in the Watergate scandal.

Nixon's crime in Watergate was heinous enough. Perhaps, revisiting history from our perspective today, he should have been impeached for his China policy. It opened the door for American manufacturers to relocate facilities to the Asian nation, costing millions of Americans their jobs and setting in motion decades of trade imbalances and a long, slow decline of American culture.

It could also be alleged that Nixon's worst crime was his "temporary" closing of the gold window on August 15, 1971, effectively ending the Bretton Woods era. Taken together with his China policy, Nixon set in motion the wreckage of a prosperous middle class in America.

while it's easy to scapegoat Mr. Nixon, it should be pointed out that his policies were mostly not of his making, but those of his advisors and cabinet members, particularly Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, advance man Dewey Clower, founder of the notorious February Group, speechwriter Pat Buchanan, and Donald Rumsfeld, who served as counsellor to the president (1969–73), the United States Permanent Representative to NATO (1973–74), and White House Chief of Staff (1974–75), among others such as George Romney, George Schultz, John Connally, Elliot Richardson, but that's a deep state story for another day.

As of 2019, over $560 billion worth of products come from China. Everything from electric blankets to video game consoles, from cooking appliances to baby carriages are made almost exclusively in China. Proctor & Gamble estimates that Chinese materials impact 17,600 different finished products.

Decades of cheap, sub-standard manufactured products from China have eroded the quality of life in America. dealing with the communists allowed the propagation of Wal-Marts across the country, wiping out hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of small businesses that dotted the business landscape of both urban and rural America. Our economy is now almost fully dependent on imports from China and spending by consumers.

Corporations don't make much of anything in America any more. The mainstream media, flush with scary stories about COVID-19, the second wave, lockdowns, protesting in the streets, and the cultural revolution of Black Lives Matter and ANTIFA, will almost certainly have a field day if trade relations with China sour, which they already have, though they're too busy with all the other nonsense to notice.

American dissatisfaction with China is reaching catastrophic proportions. According to a polls conducted by the Gallup organization, 67 percent of Americans have a negative view of China. 87 and 89 percent of those polled view China's military and economic strengths, respectively, as critical or important threats to America. 62 percent believe China's trade policies toward the US are unfair, and 86 percent are either somewhat concerned or very concerned about China's trade policies. And these polls were taken before the coronavirus, of which 77% of people polled by Harris believe originated in China [PDF], spread disease and death around the world.

Aside from the lying, spying, stealing of state secrets, knock offs and pirating of American products, pet food that kills dogs and cats, substandard plywood, concrete and other building materials like nails that bend on impact and screws that break in half, forays into the South China Sea and Africa, aggressive attitude toward Hong Kong and Taiwan, defective coffee makers, blenders and a slew of household and consumer products, China is just fine as a trading partner.

The United States should, instead of appeasing them on trade as many former presidents have, take President Trump's approach to the extreme and just sever relations with them altogether. While such a policy would likely result in many empty shelves in WalMart and Target stores, it might just be enough of a spark to ignite a fire under the dormant manufacturing base in the United States of America and create millions of new jobs in a restructured economy.

The world has been ravaged by a Chinese scourge for nearly 50 years. It's time to turn the tables on the Communists and banish them rather than bless them and promote them, as the BLM and ANTIFA protesters do.

Markets will be closed on Friday, in observance of Independence Day. Enjoy the holiday by buying American-made goods, if you can find any.

At the Close, Wednesday, July 1, 2020:
Dow: 25,734.97; -77.91 (-0.30%)
NASDAQ: 10,154.63, +95.86 (+0.95%)
S&P 500: 3,115.86, +15.57 (+0.50%)
NYSE: 11,901.55, +7.77 (+0.07%)

Credit World May Become A Battlefield If FICO and Square Butt Heads; Silver on the Move; ADP Fairy Tales

A couple of stories from the world of personal credit are noteworthy as the world enters the third quarter of 2020 hoping for improvement but fearing a repeat of the second quarter from the same enemy which ran roughshod over the world economy.

It's not the virus that people fear, but government response to it in terms of restricted mobility, business operations, and general closures of everything from schools and churches to bars and hair salons.

While the planet and government managers struggle with the virus and their chances in the upcoming US elections in November, credit issues are popping up like daffodils in Springtime. Huge numbers of Americans are foregoing rent and mortgage payments, citing unemployment as the main cause for a diminished cash flow, and delinquencies are piling up not only on mortgages (which are vitally important), but on car loans and leases, student debt, credit cards, and personal loans.

It's because of these issues, or perhaps in spite of them, that FICO (Fair Isaac Corporation) wants to rate your resilience and ability to pay back borrowed money in a recession or economic downturn. The company and its affiliate credit scorekeepers - Experian, TransUnion and Equifax - are looking back at credit histories from the GFC in 2007-09 for hints of riskiness in borrowers.

Their findings, which won't be relevant for at least a few more months, could affect how consumers are judged when applying for any kind of credit, from mortgages to car loans. If economic conditions remain below par, many people with poor resilience scores could find themselves out of luck getting credit.

Countering FICO's foray into past performance of borrowers, Chime continues to innovate in the banking and credit space with the launch of the Chime Credit Builder Visa Credit Card.

Actually a debit card that works like a credit card, users can transfer funds from a secure Chime account to a Visa card, and use that money to charge anything, including everyday items like food, gas, clothing or general expenses. The charges are paid by the card automatically, and the results reported to the credit bureaus. The goal is to improve credit scores for mainly younger folks, who favor debit cards over credit, but who need to establish or improve their credit history.

If it sounds like cheating, it very well may be. This is reporting of purchases made with essentially a debit card being reported as a credit card. The credit bureaus are likely to balk at this methodology. A clash between the old standard bureaus and the upstart Chime might make for some interesting developments in how credit and individual risk are measured down the road.

Tuesday's hands-down big winner was silver, which rocketed up by more than two percent in the futures space, vaulting over the psychologically-challenging $18 mark and holding around $18.20. Gold's little sister has a lot of catching up to do and if this price maintains, should signal that a run up to resistance in the $20-21 range is imminent. Correlated closely to the S&P index (for God only knows what reason), if stocks falter and silver holds or goes even higher, that would qualify as a major development. Keep eyes peeled on that space.

Stocks continued their rally from Monday into Tuesday, which was the final day of the month and of the second quarter, an important milestone, since GDP for the quarter - heavily affected by the coronavirus and state-by-state lockdowns and business closures - is expected to check in with a very negative number on a scale likely never seen before. Estimates for second quarter GDP range between -25% to -52%.

Current stock valuations seem to be suggesting that investors are leaning toward the upper end of that range. A decline of 30-35% might actually be seen as a positive for markets because it will be viewed as a one-off event followed by a rapid recovery, though the jury is still out on whether economic recovery will look like a "V", "W", or an "L".

Any view of the stock market indices over the past five months clearly show a "V" shape, with stocks declining and rising at the same frenetic pace. The recovery pattern for stocks can hardly be taken as definitive by any measure of economic activity. Stocks were skyrocketing off their lows as millions of people were losing their jobs, the government and Federal Reserve exercising emergency measures, and the general economy entering a recession.

A "W" pattern goes along with the "second wave" theory of the virus, already being engineered by increased testing and renewed calls for shutdowns, lockdowns, face masks, social distancing and all the assorted recommendations which were successful only in wrecking the Main Street small business economy.

The "L" pattern is the one most despised by money managers, banking executives, and financial central planners because it offers no realistic hope for the immediate future. The "L" concept implies that the economy falls and stays down for an extended period. Like just about everything else the experts at the biggest banks and financial institutions predict, contrarian view has the slow recovery "L" pattern front of mind and it is actually the most likely pattern - not for stocks or any other asset classes - for the general economy in terms of GDP, personal income, and employment.

Finally, queueing the start of the third quarter in the typical doublespeak manner, ADP's June Employment Report showed a gain of 2,369,000 jobs in the non-farm private sector. This follows a decline of 2,760,000 in May, with June just about covering all those job losses. ADP saw 19.5 million people lose their jobs in April, another 2.8 million lost jobs in May (which has now been revised to +3.065mm!). It's almost as if many of those 20 million people filing continuing unemployment claims don't exist, which is fine, since we're all living in bizarro-world now.

At the Close, Tuesday, June 30, 2020:
Dow: 25,812.88, +217.08 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 10,058.77, +184.61 (+1.87%)
S&P 500: 3,100.29, +47.05 (+1.54%)
NYSE: 11,893.78, +116.69 (+0.99%)

Boeing Leads Stocks Another Bump Higher; What Your Life Will Be Like in 2021 and Beyond

The economy is changing, rapidly.

Under the surface of government's official statistics and the normally noisy gyrations of the stock market there's a literal revolution going on in America and around the globe about how business gets done, how society operates, how people live day-to-day.

Changes, brought about not by the coronavirus itself, but by government and popular response to it are quietly, relentlessly occurring just beneath the surface of everyday life.

Some of the changes are overtly obvious. Forced to stay home during the various state lockdowns, people didn't drive as much, if at all. Nobody sat down for a meal at any restaurant. Most of them were closed. If you had kids, you got to know them better... much better. How people dealt with that was a variable count. Your house is probably cleaner than it's ever been. With nothing much to do, many people cleaned like they were on maid service.

These are just a few of the changes that have already happened. What happens next?

As the government and propaganda media - by inference, any national TV or radio network, mainstream newspaper, and local affiliates - push the agenda of a second wave of virus outbreak more people will be wearing masks, the overall level of stupidity will rise, more businesses will be forced into bankruptcy, homelessness will become endemic in cities over 100,000 population, and you will likely make less money than you did at the same time in 2019.

What the government and media don't want you to know is that the virus is getting weaker, not stronger. As is usually the case, COVID-19 will succumb to the same conditions that have befallen every virus before it and likely every virus afterwards. As infections (cases) proliferate, more and more people become immune. People prone to serious, sometimes deadly outcomes - the obese, those with prior medical conditions (especially diabetes and heart conditions), the elderly - will be more effectively isolated, resulting in many fewer deaths than were experienced during the initial blast of the novel coronavirus.

When the virus reaches a stage at which it has either infected almost everybody (herd immunity) or has mutated so much that it's about as deadly as a common cold, it will be a non-issue, but the media and government agitprop actors like Drs. Birx and Fauci from the CDC will continue to push the "wear a face mask and social distance" mantra. Eventually, even the dumbest people on the planet will be able to see through their agenda for the Covi-Pass (now a real app for your tracking device cell phone), vaccine (don't take it; it won't be effective and may make you sicker) and the wreckage of the US economy (well underway) and begin to ignore all their dire warnings and fear-mongering.

Here's a fact: Over the past week (6/23-6/29) there have been 3,791 new deaths attributed to COVID-19, an average of 542 per day. Compare that to roughly two months ago (4/21-4/27), when there were 12,859 deaths, an average of 1,837 per day. That's quite a drop. In fact, it's a decrease of 70.52%.

Confirmed cases, from the same periods were:
6/23-6/29: 275,501 total; 39,357 per day.
4/21-4/27: 206,818 total; 29,545 per day.

What this means is that more people are testing positive, but fewer are dying. Instead of scaring everybody into believing that the virus is advancing into a "second wave," we should be celebrating that it's on the decline because the case fatality rate (number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed cases) is cratering.

In April, it was 0.062 (or 6.2%), meaning that six out of every 100 confirmed cases resulted in death.

In June, it is 0.014 (1.4%). Only one or two out of every hundred confirmed cases is resulting in death.

That's HUGE! The virus is being defeated. Kudos to honest doctors, nurses and health care professionals. A middle finger to the CDC, mainstream media, the federal government, Drs. Birx and Fauci, and anybody else preaching the apocalyptic message of the COVID-19 "we're all gonna die" false prophecy narrative.

Regardless, life (for most people with an IQ over 100, which excludes most of the BLM and ANTIFA goons) is changing.

Here is a short list of what your life may be like in 2021:

• You will work from home more often
• You may have started or expanded your own home business
• You will watch less TV
• You will get more, better, relevant information from the internet
• You will not trust the government at all
• You will dress more casually
• You will be eating better (home-cooked meals over restaurants)
• You will probably have become a better cook
• You will be making less money (but saving more)
• You will be more diligent about budgeting and saving
• You will not be wearing a mask in public
• You will go to a restaurant, sporting event or concert
• You will appreciate your car more
• You will take a trip or vacation, but you will drive, not fly
• You will be happier, less stressed, and healthier

If all that sounds too good to be true, believe it. Many people who lived through the depression have attested to those years being the best of their lives. Money wasn't a top-of-the-list agenda. Living was what everybody had top of mind. People helped each other. People cared for each other. Almost nobody invested in stocks. Food was cheap; almost everybody had a back-yard garden. Many raised chickens or rabbits.

As one person who lived through the 1930s in a medium-sized city once put it: "Nobody thought of themselves as poor because we all were poor."

The standard of living in the Great Depression didn't go down. Perhaps it did at first, but, in terms of human well-being and satisfaction, it went up and continued to improve until the entire country was once again gainfully employed due to the World War II effort. And then, America boomed, becoming the greatest country with the greatest economy the world had ever seen.

So, if you get a little stressed out over the current conditions, remember that it's temporary and it will pass. Make your life better. Make your neighbor's life better. Care more. Give more. Live more. The future looks brighter than ever.

In case you still have an interest in stocks, they did well on Monday (as they almost always do... it's a psychological thing. The stock market going higher on Mondays supposedly gives everybody a rise). The Dow was the big winner on the day, with Boeing leading the charge, up 24.48 points (+14.40%).

Imagine that. A company that's losing money, on the brink of bankruptcy, which makes airplanes that crash and kill people, selling to an industry (airlines, air travel) that's collapsing is the leading stock of the day.

Go right ahead. Put more money into that failing enterprise. The rest of us are moving on to a better life without Boeing, or the stock market, or the Federal Reserve, all of which deserve to die painful deaths.

Excelsior!

At the Close, Monday, June 29, 2020:
Dow: 25,595.80, +580.25 (+2.32%)
NASDAQ: 9,874.15, +116.93 (+1.20%)
S&P 500: 3,053.24, +44.19 (+1.47%)
NYSE: 11,777.08, +172.66 (+1.49%)