Dow Ends Losing Streak at 10; Up 0.036% and We're Supposed to Be Relieved?; House Bill Fails, Government Shutdown Looms

As might be expected, the week looks pretty bad with potentially increased volatility via Friday's quad-witching expirations.

The Dow, which managed to post a small gain Thursday, is down sharply, off 1485 points through Thursday’s close. If the Dow closes near that level or lower, it would be the largest weekly drop in at least two years. The NASDAQ has lost more than 550 points over the past four days, while the S&P has shed 180 points, or just more than three percent.

In case you might have been suspicious, the entire U.S. stock market is a sham. How else do you end a 10-session Dow losing streak by barely holding on in the final minutes of trading to get +15.37, a gain of 0.036%?

Besides the Dow's miraculous streak-ending, last gasp, everything else was down on Thursday: the Russell 2000, NASDAQ, S&P 500, Dow Transports, Oil, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, were all down.

For better or worse, this was the first gain in 11 sessions and only the second gain in the last 14. From December 4 through the 19th, the Dow lost 2,671.80 points, dropping from 45,014.04 (an all-time high BTW) to 42,342.24, about six percent.

So, Thursday, it was up 15 points. That doesn't even register as a rounding error, and Friday's shaping up to be a test of will for even the most intrepid traders.

For those interested in charts, patterns, and technical analysis, the major averages have been exhibiting early signs of bear market patterns, up early, but closing lower. Daily charts reveal these obvious markers. Thursday was textbook. The Dow, for instance, opened with a bang, at 42,787.85, up more than 540 points just minutes after the open, but sold off all day, closing very near the lows of the day.

That's not a sign of a healthy market.

On the economic front, the final estimate for third quarter U.S. GDP showed the economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1%, well above the previous reading of 2.8%, a number that is barely believable. Stripping out government from the GDP calculation renders GDP in the red almost every quarter. GDP is hardly a good measure of a nation's overall economic condition because government produces nothing other than paperwork and debt.

Other data out Thursday morning showed weekly unemployment claims dropped from the 242,000 seen the previous week to 220,000 in the latest reading. The four-week average rose by 1,250 to 225,500.

Being so close to the holidays, weekly claims are likely to be lower than normal as employers are less inclined to hand out pink slips during the festive season. Jobless claims are likely to ramp up in January and February as Trump's DOGE team goes to work and businesses lay off holiday hires.

Adding to the unemployment lines will be layoffs from Big Lots, which plans to close all of its remaining 963 locations after its planned sale to Nexus Capital Management fell through. The cheap junk which lined the shelves of the now-bankrupt company will be even cheaper in days ahead, just in time for Christmas!

In congress, the scaled-down (116 pages, down from 1,547 in the initial, pork-laden proposal) emergency CR put forward by House Speaker Mike Johnson failed by a vote of 174-235-1, with 38 Republicans voting against the measure. Legislators have until midnight Friday to pass some form of funding for the government or shut it down just days before Christmas.

Due to House rules which require three days for members to read bills, any measure put forward on Friday would require a 2/3rds majority under suspended rules. The measure which failed Thursday didn't even come close. Early Friday morning, Speaker Johnson arrived on Capitol Hill, reportedly saying, "so y’all stay tuned, we’ve got a plan."

What that plan is, nobody at present knows, though incoming VP JD Vance - who is still a sitting Senator from Ohio - was reported to be meeting with the Speaker.

Muddying the waters is President-elect Trump's desire for the funding bill to include language extending or suspending the debt ceiling, which has been suspended until January 1, 2025, a kind of poison pill for the incoming administration. Without new legislation, the ceiling will be raised on that date to match whatever borrowing the government has undertaken. The government will use what's known as "extraordinary measures" to keep the government from defaulting, which would likely keep government functioning into the summer of 2025, so there's really no urgency on that front.

As usual, democrats are blaming Republicans and vice-versa. If the usual script plays out, congress will approve some kind of stop-gap measure at the last minute, Biden will sign it, and everybody will leave Washington and head home for the holidays.

Overnight, bitcoin was hammered lower in what may be turning into a leverage/liquidity event. Margin calls certainly were issued during Wednesday's slide and bitcoin seems to have taken over the role gold used to play during such events. Not so long ago, dealers kept excess funds in gold or gold futures and redeemed them when they needed cash. Bitcoin seems to be the choice these days as it appreciates faster than gold (and also loses ground quicker).

Bitcoin, which made an all-time high just above $108,000 on Tuesday, fell to as low as $92,296 just this morning.

Ironically, gold bounced off $2,600 and is up around $10 this morning. Silver remains depressed, trading in the low $29 range on the COMEX.

Futures are pointing to a troublesome open. An hour before the opening bell, equity futures were down sharply, but began rising sharply right at 8:30 am ET, when the BEA released the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for November, which came in below Wall Street forecasts, suggesting that inflation continues to slow, albeit at a snail's pace.

That's providing some relief, but all stock futures continue trading fairly deep in the red.

Friday's session looks to be quite the show.

At the Close, Thursday, December 19, 2024:
Dow: 42,342.24, +15.37 (+0.036%)
NASDAQ: 19,372.77, -19.92 (-0.10%)
S&P 500: 5,867.08, -5.08 (-0.087%)
NYSE Composite: 18,958.21, -28.75 (-0.15%)

Dow Down 10 Straight; NASDAQ, S&P, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Oil, Bonds Join the Rush to the Basement

Editor's Note: For those who might sense a little (or a lot) bit of joy on the pages of Money Daily whenever stocks decline, you're right. Anybody with a realistic outlook should have seen that stocks were stretched to extremes weeks or even months ago and caution has always been advised here, whether stocks are up, down, or treading water, and so, when markets correct, it's a kind of validation.

Nobody is happy losing money and only psychopaths or sociopaths are happy seeing other people lose money, but, it's a cold, often cruel world, and if fat cat bankers and hedge fund billionaires lose some dough, well, maybe it's worthy of a little celebration. The people who really get hurt badly in situations like the one that appears to be unfolding are those passive "investors" stuck 401k plans or other vehicles over which they have little to no control, and that's a shame, though really, they have nobody but themselves (and their greediness) to blame.

Everybody got hurt today. All assets were marked down, but some worse than others. The difference lies in asset allocation. Paper assets got slaughtered. Owners of gold, silver, real estate, business assets still have what they started with, only the perceived value is lower. With stocks, bonds, bitcoin, etc., it's more of a reality. Those got marked down and some may not recover. The warnings have been apparent for some time (the Dow doesn't lose ground nine straight sessions for no good reason) and Wednesday's drawdown must be put into perspective. It's probably the beginning of something much larger. -FR

Anybody who was bidding up Dow stocks prior to the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday got their rumps handed to them in a memorable afternoon of relentless selling pressure extending the Dow's losing streak to 10 sessions, down

At 2:00 pm ET on Wednesday, December 18, the FOMC of the Federal Reserve issued the following press release:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage?backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.

For media inquiries, please email media@frb.gov or call 202-452-2955.

At the same time, the Fed released economic projections [PDF] of FOMC meeting participants, which showed the majority (10 of 19) thought the federal funds target rate would be between 3.75% and 4.00% in 2025, implying that the Fed may only be cutting the rate two more times next year, most likely at the next two meetings, in January and March.

Longer term, the projections were between 3.00% and 4.00% for 2026, with a slight bias toward the lower end of that range. The projections for 2027 centered around 3.00-3.25%, and longer run from 2.75% to 3.00%.

Historically, these projections seldom turn out to be correct, as economic conditions change in unforeseen ways. These current projects likely fail to take into account actions and fiscal policies by the incoming Trump administration, which may be more austere than the Federal Reserve wishes to admit.

Wall Street's reaction was decidedly negative, sending the Dow down by more than 300 points immediately after the release, erasing gains from earlier in the day. The NASDAQ and S&P, which were hovering just above the flat line prior to the announcement, sank into negative territory.

During Chairman Powell's question and answer period, he stated, "It's pretty clear we've avoided recession." Circle that line because it may turn out to rank right up there with "sub-prime is contained," and "inflation is transitory." The coming six to 18 months are fraught with downside risk, especially considering the establishment of Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), their stated goal being reducing government outlays by as much as $2 trillion within the next 18 months (by July 4, 2026).

At the end of the day, the Fed's latest policy decision gave investors plenty of cover to trim exposure and take profits before year-end. What happens next is anybody's guess, but, weighing the direction of stocks and bonds of late against future developments in congress and by the White House, odds and indications seem to be anticipating shocks to the U.S. economy in the coming year.

This flushing of stocks should serve to mark the end of the rally that began some 13 months ago, in late October of 2023. Comprised of excessive valuations and hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI), stocks posted extraordinary gains which were based largely on flawed data (employment) and loose economic conditions. Signals were given by the Fed when they began a rate-cutting cycle in September, sensing that the U.S. economy was headed for recession.

Those fortunate enough to buy stocks in November and December of last year have now sold them for outstanding gains and a lower capital gains tax if held for more than a year. As is usually the case, those who joined the party late - from July through November are now looking at losses and hoping for a rebound in 2025.

Good luck with that.

Today's losses were the largest in well over a year's time on all the major indices. Anybody who is looking for a "Santa Claus" rally within the last eight trading days of the year might better consider hoping for some January froth, which, as any expert trader will attest, is not a cogent strategy.

The worst of it all may have been the radical downturn for recent buyers of bitcoin, which dumped nearly five percent, down more than $5,000 when equity indices closed. The slide into the evening and by early morning the price had descended below $99,000. There's been some comeback early morning Thursday, but bitcoin remains a purely speculative play.

Equally extreme was the move lower in gold and silver. Gold, which has been in a downtrend since just prior to the election, was slaughtered today, losing $60, down more than two percent. Silver was even worse, down nearly four percent, to $29.77, a three-month low. It would not be surprising to see both gold and silver drop even further as the days until Trump's inauguration dwindle and then his presidency becomes reality.

Gold breaking below $2,600 would not br significant. Silver losing touch with $30, is, and such slippage could usher in even more panicky Christmas-related selling, more wild naked shorting in the futures market and a cascading effect that could pull gold down with it. Remember: the Fed hates competition.

From a speculative or long-term position, a buying opportunity is being set up for those who enjoy the benefits of real money, i.e., gold and silver. Silver at $30 is not support. A range between $26 and $28 is probably a near-term bottom. In the case of a true crash of stocks into a bear market - which could happen - silver will be even lower, so, keep some cash handy.

Chris Irons at Quoth the Raven's Fringe Finance has an interesting take on Wednesday's market mayhem and leverage.

Also of note, Gregory Mannarino closed all his equity positions yesterday, joining Warren Buffett in the all-cash club, and, the Shiller PE, which recently was as high as 38.88, has dropped to a more reasonable 37.36, but is till well above the mean (17.19) and median (16.01). Reversion to the mean is an incontrovertible physical reality. Timing it is another thing altogether.

Bottom line, Wednesday's cram-down was not a one-off. If anything, the NASDAQ and S&P are just beginning to catch down to what the Dow was suggesting the past ten days. Topping it all off, like clockwork, congress is looking very much like it's going to create yet another crisis by shutting down the government Friday night. The continuing resolution (CR) put up by House Speaker Mike Johnson is so full of pork, provisions protecting congress from being investigated, and giving themselves another raise that even his own members are calling him out on it and a new, "plan B", cleaner CR is being considered

Stay tuned. This is only the first act of desperation.

For conspiracy theorists far and wide: shut down the government, declare an emergency, do not ratify the electors on January 6, postpone Trump's inauguration. Anybody who thinks drones flying around New Jersey are some kind of hoax knows little of the depraved behavior those about to lose power are capable of foisting upon the public and their enemies.

They will stop at nothing.

With less than an hour before Thursday's opening bell stock futures are exhibiting an overwhelming degree of hubris and misdirection, as if buying the dip at the open would be an appropriate action (hint: it's not). Dow futures are up more than 300 points, NASDAQ futures are ahead by 140, and S&P futures are up 44 points. Yeah, sure.

WTI crude oil has bounced back over $70, and bitcoin has rebounded to around $102,000. Gold and silver remain under pressure.

Today's magic numbers are 33 (days until Trurmp's inauguration), 7 (days until Christmas), and 8 (trading days left in 2024).

At the Close, Wednesday, December 18, 2024:
Dow: 42,326.87, -1,123.03 (-2.58%)
NASDAQ: 19,392.69, -716.37 (-3.56%)
S&P 500: 5,872.16, -178.45 (-2.95%)
NYSE Composite: 18,986.96, -530.65 (-2.72%)

Dow Losing Streak at Nine; Fed's FOMC Likely to Cut 0.25% Today; Wall Street Reaction May be Muted

US stocks suffered declines on Tuesday, with the Dow logging its ninth consecutive drop, its biggest losing streak in 46 years.

The last 9-day losing streak for the Dow was in February of 1978. Prior to that, the index suffered an 11-day losing streak in 1974 and another in 1971.

Stock futures are suggesting that the streak may end right at nine. Dow futures are up 125 points a half hour before the opening bell, thouogh they are well off their highs. NASDAQ futures have fallen into the red with S&P futures up marginally.

The day's trading will center around the Fed's FOMC interest rate policy decision at 2:00 pm ET, with Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference and the Fed's economic projections, complete with dot plots showing expectations for federal funds target rate direction through 2025 and beyond.

While the market will try to make sense of the Fed's posture, expectations, and Powell's subtle signals, nothing that happens today, except in the improbable case that the Fed doesn't cut from 4.50-4.75% to 4.25-4.50%, will matter very much in the long term because the incoming Trump administration is likely to tear up the playbook and institute new policies that will change the dynamic of how the government and the Fed handle deficits, government funding, and the direction of the country.

What interested parties will be looking for are signs of whether the Fed plans to continue cutting rates and where they eventually land. Projections so far have the Fed pausing at around 3.25-3.50%, implying four further rate cuts spread across the first two quarters of 2025. There are FOMC meetings set for January 28-29, March 18-19, May 6-7, and June 17-18. Cuts of 25 basis points would align with Trump's forced austerity policies for the government and continue to fuel speculation that the United States will follow Europe into recession early in the coming year.

Notably, the next FOMC meeting will occur after Trump's inauguration. Judging by the speed at which Trump has made his choices to fill key administration positions, he's likely to unleash the DOGE of Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk via executive order on the first day in office via executive order. Presidential observers expect more than just a few executive orders from President Trump in his first few days, shaping his domestic policies with strong leanings towards efficiency and de-regulation.

While Trump's plans should eventually result in renewed growth for the U.S. economy, there's likely to be some disruption at the start. Entire departments could be defunded or downgraded, with budgets trimmed to bare bones and employee layoffs via Reduction in Force, over which federal unions would have no power to protest.

With Trump and his team on a cost-cutting expedition, expect howls from the entrenched congress and their supporters in the federal bureaucracy. The administrative state is not going to submit to its own demise without a fight.

That is why today's events are likely to produce more noise than signal about the future of U.S. markets, policies, and growth potential.

There is a good chance that the Fed won't reveal much today and even if they do, Wall Street insiders may interpret it with an ample supply of skepticism.

Elsewhere, bitcoin has backed off slightly, trending just below $105,000. The slump in gold and silver continues though the Fed's announcement may foster some change there. Oil is higher, though there still doesn't appear to be much conviction in higher prices. The world economy is obviously slowing and oil price is a key indicator.

At the Close, Tuesday, December 17, 2024:
Dow: 43,449.90, -267.58 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ: 20,109.06, -64.83 (-0.32%)
S&P 500: 6,050.61, -23.47 (-0.39%)
NYSE Composite: 19,517.61, -110.07 (-0.56%)

Dow Losing Streak Reaches Eight; Fed Readies to Cut Key Rate Another 25 Basis Points

The start of a new week didn't go so well for holders of stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed lower for an eighth straight session, the longest losing streak since June, 2018. The Dow fell 110 points while the S&P and NASDAQ posted gains.

As the opening bell approaches, stock futures suggest that Tuesday might not be much better. Dow futures are down nearly 200 points, with NASDAQ futures off 60 and S&P futures down 23 points.

What's causing the malaise in the blue chips may be tied to concerns over Donald Trump's proposed tariffs. Since many of the 30 companies listed on the Dow serve diverse multi-national markets, there is fear that other countries would impose tariffs as reprisals to the U.S., possibly sparking a global trade war.

Alongside that proposition, the dis-inversion of the yield curve - which just happened fully last week - usually presages recession, so investors may be taking money off the table, booking profits.

Whatever is causing the Dow's demise, it's rattling key segments. The Dow is down 1,300 points since December 4.

The Fed's final FOMC meeting of the year begins today and concludes Wednesday with the rate policy decision at 2:00 pm ET. A 25 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate is a near certainty.

At the Close, Monday, December 16, 2024:
Dow: 43,717.48, -110.58 (-0.25%)
NASDAQ: 20,173.89, +247.17 (+1.24%)
S&P 500: 6,074.08, +22.99 (+0.38%)
NYSE Composite: 19,627.68, -101.69 (-0.52%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Dow Down Seven Straight; Yield Curve Dis-Inverts; Gold, Silver Slaughtered; Oil Gains Probably Short-Lived

Drones sighted in New Jersey and an earthquake in the bond market highlighted a week that will largely go unnoticed by most analysts, but may turn out to be one of the more consequential indicators in recent memory.

While drone sightings serve mostly to confuse and disorient the general public, the upheaval in the treasury market - with the long and short ends completely flipping positions - is an actual economic big deal which mainstream financial journalists completely missed, likely because they have little to no clue about how the debt market functions.

Kudos to Paul Franke at Seeking Alpha making note of the change and for forward thinking, ferreting out some constructive investing ideas based on the "dis-inversion."

With November CPI and PPI in the rear-view mirror, the upcoming week will feature the Fed's final monetary policy rate decision of the year on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England on Thursday.

Somewhere in this jumbled miasma, there's a happy holiday package wrapped up with a frilly bow on top. Starting Monday, there are nine days until Christmas and just 11 trading sessions remaining in 2024. Following the Fed policy decision, most minds will be turning to college bowl games, last-minute shopping, and travel plans.

Oh, and drone swarms. Don't forget drone swarms.

Stocks

It was not a good week to be holding equities, especially blue chips. The Dow fell every day this week, with the losing streak hitting seven and nine of the last ten sessions.

The only index to show gain was the NASDAQ, the usual suspect in the over-heated stock environment, powered by AI. Artificial intelligence is making impacts in certain places beyond sex animations, better language usage, and deep fakes. There are ground-breaking developments in search quality, predictive analysis, and general business planning. What AI can do, used properly, results in positive outcomes for the most part. The problem is, like during the dotcom boom, it's vastly over-hyped and thus, certain high-flying stocks are being overvalued.

There is likely to be a correction, at least, in tech stocks, possibly a drop of more than the usual 10-15%, in months ahead. Other sectors are likely to be affected more severely, particularly consumer discretionary and general retail, should a recession appear in early 2025, which appears to be more and more likely.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
11/08/2024	4.70	4.69	4.63	4.53	4.42	4.32
11/15/2024	4.70	4.67	4.60	4.52	4.44	4.34
11/22/2024	4.72	4.67	4.63	4.53	4.46	4.42
11/29/2024	4.76	4.69	4.58	4.52	4.42	4.30
12/06/2024	4.57	4.50	4.42	4.42	4.34	4.19
12/13/2024	4.43	4.43	4.34	4.36	4.32	4.24

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
11/08/2024	4.26	4.18	4.20	4.25	4.30	4.58	4.47
11/15/2024	4.31	4.27	4.30	4.36	4.43	4.70	4.60
11/22/2024	4.37	4.32	4.30	4.35	4.41	4.67	4.60
11/29/2024	4.13	4.10	4.05	4.10	4.18	4.45	4.36
12/06/2024	4.10	4.05	4.03	4.09	4.15	4.42	4.34
12/13/2024	4.25	4.21	4.25	4.33	4.40	4.69	4.61

Yields rising during the week on maturities from two years out to 30 indicate a massive dumping of U.S. treasuries, owing to inflationary indication in November CPI and PPI and the Fed's steadfast commitment to cut the federal funds target rate at next week's FOMC meeting (Tuesday-Wednesday).

Fed policy has become fully disjointed from perceived reality. Never has the Fed cut rates with stocks near all-time highs, unemployment low, the general economy supposedly in good shape with GDP growing. It's almost as if they know something about which the rest of us are being purposely kept in the dark, which, like it or not, is probably the case.

This week's movements in bonds unclenched the long-term inversion, with full spectrum yields (30-days out to 30-years) flipping from -23 to +18, an event that should not go unnoticed by anybody considering investments in stocks or fixed income. The rapid change to a nearly-normalized yield curve has produced a flattening of immense consequence.

The entire curve is ensconced in a 0.40% range, from the low of 4.21% on the three-year note to the high of 4.61% on the 30-year bond and it is all concentrated at the long end with antecedent preference given to 30- and 60-day yields in anticipation of a drop next week from 4.50-4.75% to 4.25-4.50%. It's about as flat as it can be. 30-day bills will likely continue to drop when the Fed actually announces the cut, which is a near-certainty, as is another 25 basis point drop in January.

(As an aside, 20-year bonds should be simply ignored as they are largely illiquid, not favored by the bond-trading community and thus irrelevant in terms of yield structure.)

By Friday, 30-day bills could be yielding as low as 4.30%. By February, 30-day bills could yield 4.15% or lower, completing the Fed's task of normalization of the yield curve. Short-term issuance dropping along with long-dated maturities rising will result in a healthy upward-sloping yield curve, usually considered "normal", though little about the methodology nor the timing offer even a small degree of confidence. The Fed seems to be forcing the issue, driving down the short end to accommodate the incoming Trump administration's austerity protocol, which is likely to be predicated on cuts to government agency budgets and slashing of employment numbers which will lead inexorably to higher unemployment across government sectors, wedging into private payrolls as well.

The overall effects of Trump's process are going to be massively deflationary. The Fed is going to have to keep "pumping the brakes" with rate cuts and may have to slam them down to avoid what should, in all likelihood, become a deep, long recession, one that is long overdue owing to phony government statistics and readings that clouded over the true condition of the U.S. economy, thrashed and plundered by four years of Biden bone-headedness, pilferage, and dishonesty. What the current administration - with ample assistance from congress - has done to the economics of the United States is nothing short of criminal and there will, no doubt, be repercussions, recriminations, and penalties.

35 days until the Biden years get swept unceremoniously into the dustbin of history and counting. God help us.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18

Oil/Gas
The demise of Assad and Syria gave oil a needed boost, to $70.65 as of Friday's New York close, though it was likely for many wrong reasons.

WTI crude oil leapt from the prior Friday close of $67.17, a massive move of $3.48, though it might be more of a one-off than the beginning of any kind of trend.

Oil prices have been under pressure for the past eight months, falling from a peak of $86.91 on April 5 to current levels. Peak to trough, the drop is a bear market signal. This week's run-up is just noise and an opportunity for hedgers to make money on both sides of the trade. There is nothing existent in the financial realm to suggest in the least that oil prices should rise unless the final days of Biden bunker mentality lands the world into thermo-nuclear winter just as climatological winter appear (December 20).

Consequently, gas prices stabilized at three-year low levels during the week with Gasbuddy.com reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $3.01 a gallon, just two cents higher than the prior week. With Trump taking over the White House in a little more than a month, it's worth noting that the national average for gas never rose above $3.00 from 2016 through 2020.

California continues as price leader, at $4.28 a gallon, down four cents from the prior week and well below prices prevailing during the summer.

Pennsylvania prices are down another four cents this week, at $3.23, with the Keystone State holding the high price in the Northeast. New York was unmoved, down a penny, at $3.11. Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were slightly lower, continuing to nip at sub-$3 levels, while Maryland remained below $3.00, at $2.94 per gallon.

There were some upsetting price movements in the Midwest, led by Illinois rising from $3.13 to $3.20 and Ohio and Indiana both popping back over $3.00, both showing $3.04 on Sunday morning.

Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.44) continue to be by far the lowest in the nation, holding at current levels for a second straight week. Following are Texas ($2.50), Mississippi and Arkansas ($2.55), and Tennessee at $2.60. Louisiana and Kansas, at $2.63 and $2.64, respectively are just slightly lower than Southeastern neighbors South Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama. Florida ($3.11) remains the outlier, with all other Southeastern states well below $3.00, along with Virginia ($2.89) and North Carolina ($2.85).

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 32 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast are the over-$3.00 holdouts.

Arizona ($3.12) was down another four cents on the week, continuing a long trend. Oregon checked in at $3.44, Nevada at $3.57, and Washington at $3.91, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.92) and Idaho ($2.95) have both come down steadily and significantly over the last eight months.

Bitcoin

This week: $103,002.00
Last week: $99,645.69
2 weeks ago: $97,184.05
6 months ago: $66,111.79
One year ago: $42,651.91
Five years ago: $7,335.59

Bitcoin remains atop the asset leaderboard, up 133% year-to-date and more than 50% since the November 5 U.S. elections, retracing $103,000.00 this morning.

Fool's gold?

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 86.00; last week: 84.31

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 11/15: $2,567.40
Gold price 11/22: $2,743.20
Gold price 11/29: $2,673.90
Gold price 12/6: $2,654.90
Gold price 12/13: $2,665.90

Silver price 11/15: $30.33
Silver price 11/22: $31.85
Silver price 11/29: $31.10
Silver price 12/6: $31.49
Silver price 12/13: $31.00

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	35.15	50.05	40.15	39.52
1 oz silver bar:	35.50	43.95	40.13	40.26
1 oz gold coin:	2,773.63	2,875.00	2,829.69	2,832.26
1 oz gold bar:	2,749.24	2,868.41	2,776.37	2,769.15

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) priced higher this week, to $40.02, a gain of $1.31 above the December 8 price of $38.71 per troy ounce.

Prices for gold and silver remained steady, even as system riggers managed a complete turnaround, with both metals reaching six-week highs (gold: $2,758.70; silver: $33.28) late Wednesday into early Thursday on the COMEX continuous contract.

Individual purchasers haven't been paying homage to futures prices on the COMEX nor daily fixes at the LBMA. Prices at retail are trending well above both. For instance, Kitco reports spot gold Sunday morning at $2,647.50, while the lowest price for a 1-ounce gold piece on eBay is $2,749.24, a $100 premium to quoted spot.

The same holds true for silver, quoting spot at $30.52 on Kitco, while the median price for a finished silver 1-ounce coin on eBay is $39.52, and $40.26 for a 1-ounce bar with low prices for the same at $35.15 and $35.50.

While eBay maintains a robust market for bullion of all varieties, prices can sometimes exceed expectations, owing to the onerous fees charged by the auction and quick-buy monopolist. However, even at online retailers, a single 1-ounce common round can run anywhere from $32.26 t0 $35.81, depending on payment type (check, crypto, credit card, PayPal) plus shipping and tax (depending on jurisdiction), whereas on eBay, via Money Daily's weekly survey, free shipping is required, putting dealer and eBay prices more or less in agreement.

Naturally, buying single silver coins or bars is the most inefficient way to build a stack. Most serious buyers opt for 10-ounce lots or 10-ounce bars. Any way one looks at the trend, it's obvious that silver and gold are being purchased at an incredibly strong run-rate at retail.

Price-rigging at the COMEX and pric fixes by LBMA for both gold and silver are largely being ignored by individual purchasers who just want the metal at what they consider a reasonable price, even if premia are running 10-15-20% above spot.

Using silver as the base, a 10% premium over spot is $3.05, 20% is $6.10, translating into $33.54 and $36.62, respectively. Nothing unusual about that at all. Dealers, whether online, brick and mortar, or eBay-based, need to make money. Buying at spot -10% and selling at spot +10% has been normative behavior for decades and still, to some extent, is.

Nothing says "collapsing currency" better than advancing prices on gold and silver and a robust and growing market for precious metals. Trading crisp or crinkled U.S. greenbacks for actual physical metal one can hold in one's hand is about the most obvious trade one can imagine and everyday people are awakening to the crumbling condition of currency and markets.

COMEX and the LBMA will likely survive the onslaught of a gold and silver mania, but their relevance will continue to decline. Already, the Shanghai exchange challenging their legitimacy, and soon Moscow, Dubai, and possibly Mumbai will follow with exchanges of their own, making the LBMA price fixes and COMEX futures a fool’s errand as the world moves on from their outdated systems.

Anybody with even a limited interest in gold or silver should consider today's prices more or less a baseline, because, as recent history proves, prices for precious metals are going nowhere but up, reflecting the decreasing purchasing power of currencies issued by central bankers like the dollar, euro, pound, and even the Chinese yuan.

It's likely that China will be a first-mover in backing currency with gold, possibly Russia, since those two countries produce and hold the largest reserves in the world. The U.S. position is a grey area, as there hasn't been an audit of U.S. gold holdings in more than 70 years, the last one, in 1953, barely meeting any standard of credibility.

Those who are waiting on the sidelines for a pullback or believing that prices are already too high best not tarry further. Prices will continue higher, with or without the COMEX, LBMA, and other notorious manipulators.

Price, being relative to currency, is not as important as quality and quantity. Buy well and buy often.

WEEKEND WRAP

Changes are happening at a fairly rapid beat. It's a shame the mainstream press can't recognize the importance of events beyond the latest Taylor Swift concert or Disney production.

The numbers this week are 35 (days until inauguration), 11 (trading days left in 2024), and 9 (days until Christmas).

Don't drone me, bro!

At the Close, Friday, December 13, 2024:
Dow: 43,828.06, -86.06 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 19,926.72, +23.88 (+0.12%)
S&P 500: 6,051.09, -0.16 (-0.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,729.37, -39.72 (-0.20%)

For the Week:
Dow: -814.46 (-1.82%)
NASDAQ: +66.96 (+0.34%)
S&P 500: -39.18 (-0.64%)
NYSE Composite: -378.42 (-1.88%)
Dow Transports: -167.97 (-1.00%)