People in the Bronx were probably wondering what that sound was right about 8:15 am, emanating from the financial district across the East River. It was the collective groans of investors heard upon the release of this morning's ADP Private Employment Report [PDF] for March.
The private data compiled by the experts at ADP should be held in much higher regard than the government's overworked and over-adjusted non farms payroll data, though it is not. Too many people have come to the erroneous conclusion that the government data is reliable, when nothing could be further from the truth. ADP, which, unlike the government, has no agenda to promote, offers a clear view of who's hiring, who isn't and in which sectors jobs are either gaining or losing.
This morning's report showed a decline of 23,000 jobs from February to March, and also revised February's loss from 20,000 to 24,000. So, the company has reported a total of 47,000 job losses in the private sector over the past two months.
And we're supposed to be in a recovery. The pundits and promoters on CNBC and in the financial press will tell you that employment is a lagging indicator, but believing in this kind of lag is getting a little bit old, so to speak. The economy "officially" turned the corner out of recession in the third quarter of 2009 (Remember "cash for clunkers?"), so, according to the usually suspect "experts", the US began growing again in July of 2009 and has continued to accelerate, or so we're led to believe.
Third Quarter 2009 GDP, according to the final estimate provided by the BLS, was up 2.2%, and the 4th quarter was up by even more, something on the order of 5.6%, again, according to official government estimates, which begs the question of how an "estimate" can ever be deemed "official."
In any case, it's now been 9 full months since the economy began to "recover,' but nowhere are there new jobs to be found, accentuated by today's ADP report. Many investors are still not going to be convinced that the economy isn't growing until the government data is released on Friday, which happens to be the Christian holiday of Good Friday, thus, the markets will be closed as is the tradition.
Now, when the government comes out with its data, expected to show an increase of anywhere from 75,000 to 300,000 jobs, the real story will be underneath the headline number and it will say that most of the new jobs were temporary Census jobs which will end in August. So, the big question for tomorrow is whether investors will come to their senses and realize that the March jobs number is, in reality, going to be pretty much a stinker, and get out of he way of the coming sell-a-thon, or will they stand fast, close ranks and defend their stakes in corporate America?
The answer will be provided within the next 24 hours, but I'm betting, based on today's down-up-down pattern, that stocks won't be affected too badly, only because our insider friends at Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch and Citigroup will be there to backstop any precipitous decline, to say nothing of the clandestine work of the PPP.
It should be fun to watch, but, the truth of the matter is that jobs aren't gaining, and 9 months is an awful long LAG, somewhat unbelievable.
Dow 10,856.63, -50.79 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 2,397.96, -12.73 (0.53%)
S&P 500 1,169.43, -3.84 (0.33%)
NYSE Composite 7,447.80, -12.92 (0.17%)
Declining issues laid all over advancers, 3885-2575. New highs: 337; new lows: 52. Nothing unusual there, but volume was a bit higher than normal, an ominous sign for the Bulls.
NYSE Volume 5,221,368,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,398,859,000
Commodity traders may be in an even deeper state of denial than equity traders. Oil for May delivery rose another $1.39 today, to $83.76. Gold gained $8.80, to $1,113.30 and silver was up 20 cents, to $17.51.
This is where it gets tricky. The dollar index was down pretty sharply on the jobs report, which pushed commodity prices higher, though it's a fool's trade, because there's simply slack demand, no inflation and therefore, all asset classes should be discounted, not appreciated. The US dollar will rise and fall in the currency markets for a boatload of different reasons, most of them speculative, but the deflationary spiral continues unabated.
For a better perspective, US treasury bonds offer some clues, as they were driven higher today, pushing down yields, a natural occurrence following a weak economic report. The bond market is screaming double-dip, while the commodity and equity markets - which require much less discipline - are still lining up on the side of economic recovery. They both can't be right, and the smart money would side with the bond sellers, who must demand more in a weakened situation.
The US is in better shape than Europe, though not by much. Probably the best places outside the US to put money to work would be Brazil or India, whose economies at somewhat detached from the US-Europe-China triad.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Dow Breaks Above 10,900 and Nobody Throws a Party
It's a good thing that the stock market indices are not true gauges of the strength of the American economy - or maybe it's too bad - because, based upon recent performance, Americans would all be out dancing in the streets because our economic conditions appear so rosy.
Stocks were up again on Tuesday, and if you think this is beginning to sound like the proverbial broken record, it's because in the month of March, stock indices have posted gains on 17 of 21 trading days. With Wednesday being the close of the month and the quarter, be prepared for more of the same, as mutual fund managers perform the quadrennial rite of "window dressing" - buying stocks with good recent track records in a very slimy and lame attempt to lure more investors into their funds.
The managers buy shares of the good stocks at the end of the quarters, then prepare their prospectuses with the recently-purchased stocks highlighted, only they fail to mention that they've held positions in them for less than 30 days, often, much less, as in, a week or so.
It's just more of the same on Wall Street. The more one learns about the business of selling shares to largely unsuspecting, unsophisticated people with more money than they know what to do with, the more one gets the feeling that it's just one big scam designed to separate those people from their money, and, more often than not, it's very successful.
So, stocks were up today, but not much, because everyone is waiting for the monthly jobs report, delivered dutifully the first Friday of every month by Wall Street's main enabler, the government. On Friday, the markets will be closed, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their widely-anticipated and heavily-massaged Non farm Payroll report for March, which will include upwards of 250,000 new, temporary Census jobs. Expectations are for an increase of 200,000 jobs, which, if it's only that many, will be a bust of sorts, considering the government is kicking in a quarter million all by themselves. Whisper numbers suggest something on the order of 300,000, which would be a blow-out figure.
Whatever number is released, it will surely be hailed as a sign that the economy is recovering, as is everything these days. A bird craps on a car: sign of economic recovery; LeBron James scores 40 points: sign of economic recovery; the world does not end: sign of economic recovery. You get the picture.
Dow 10,907.42, +11.56 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,410.69, +6.33 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,173.27, -0.05 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 7,460.72, -4.18 (0.06%)
Advancers beat decliners again, 3437-3109, ho-hum. New highs bettered new lows, 414-50. Volume continued to flatten out. Only those with nothing better to do were trading, as has been the case for months.
NYSE Volume 4,546,991,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,073,122,875
Oil was higher by 20 cents, to $82.37. Gold was lower by $5.80, to $1,104.50. Silver dipped 6 cents to $17.32.
It's all so tawdry and stupid. Invest for retirement, like you're going to actually be healthy enough to enjoy it, right?
Stocks were up again on Tuesday, and if you think this is beginning to sound like the proverbial broken record, it's because in the month of March, stock indices have posted gains on 17 of 21 trading days. With Wednesday being the close of the month and the quarter, be prepared for more of the same, as mutual fund managers perform the quadrennial rite of "window dressing" - buying stocks with good recent track records in a very slimy and lame attempt to lure more investors into their funds.
The managers buy shares of the good stocks at the end of the quarters, then prepare their prospectuses with the recently-purchased stocks highlighted, only they fail to mention that they've held positions in them for less than 30 days, often, much less, as in, a week or so.
It's just more of the same on Wall Street. The more one learns about the business of selling shares to largely unsuspecting, unsophisticated people with more money than they know what to do with, the more one gets the feeling that it's just one big scam designed to separate those people from their money, and, more often than not, it's very successful.
So, stocks were up today, but not much, because everyone is waiting for the monthly jobs report, delivered dutifully the first Friday of every month by Wall Street's main enabler, the government. On Friday, the markets will be closed, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their widely-anticipated and heavily-massaged Non farm Payroll report for March, which will include upwards of 250,000 new, temporary Census jobs. Expectations are for an increase of 200,000 jobs, which, if it's only that many, will be a bust of sorts, considering the government is kicking in a quarter million all by themselves. Whisper numbers suggest something on the order of 300,000, which would be a blow-out figure.
Whatever number is released, it will surely be hailed as a sign that the economy is recovering, as is everything these days. A bird craps on a car: sign of economic recovery; LeBron James scores 40 points: sign of economic recovery; the world does not end: sign of economic recovery. You get the picture.
Dow 10,907.42, +11.56 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 2,410.69, +6.33 (0.26%)
S&P 500 1,173.27, -0.05 (0.00%)
NYSE Composite 7,460.72, -4.18 (0.06%)
Advancers beat decliners again, 3437-3109, ho-hum. New highs bettered new lows, 414-50. Volume continued to flatten out. Only those with nothing better to do were trading, as has been the case for months.
NYSE Volume 4,546,991,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,073,122,875
Oil was higher by 20 cents, to $82.37. Gold was lower by $5.80, to $1,104.50. Silver dipped 6 cents to $17.32.
It's all so tawdry and stupid. Invest for retirement, like you're going to actually be healthy enough to enjoy it, right?
Monday, March 29, 2010
The Economy Sucks but Stocks Keep Going Up
Stocks were up again today, and, truth be told, it's beginning to become a little bit sick and perverted, to think that US corporations are healthy and making money because they've been able to cut costs to the bone, costing US employees their jobs, or cutting the pay of those employees in order to please their investors. Soon enough, it will become truly sick and perverted, when these multi-national corporations begin to raise prices because they can't cut any more payroll or, like AT&T and Catterpillar, take huge write-offs and blame it on the increased costs of "ObamaCare," as they call it.
AT&T quietly announced late Friday that they would take a $1 billion charge because of all the evil new costs included in the heath care reform bill. One has to ask why they didn't mention this while the bill was in committee or on the senate and house floors. No, they just sat back and watched a billion dollars evaporate without raising their corporate voice?
Tell you what: any company that is that reckless with investor money should not be in your portfolio. If you own any AT&T stock, or the stock of any company that takes a write-off due to increased costs associated with the recently-passed health care reform bill, SELL IT, SELL ALL OF IT, SELL ALL OF IT NOW. They don't deserve your business, and furthermore, they're a sick, twisted bunch of creeps. Remember, AT&T was one of the companies which allowed the government unfettered access to YOUR phone calls, violated your privacy and probably broke numerous laws, but got away scott free. Screw them. They only care about themselves, not you, your cell phone or your land line. Just your money, that's all.
Not that I am particularly enamored with the health care legislation - I'm not - but AT&T is just using it as a scapegoat to cut employee benefits and/or hide other losses. Face it folks, these people are about as honest as Bernie Madoff's accountant.
Dow 10,895.86, +45.50 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,404.36, +9.23 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,173.32, +6.73 (0.58%)
NYSE Composite 7,464.90, +61.32 (0.83%)
As usual, advancing issues outdid decliners, 4212-2245. There were 369 new highs and 42 new lows. So, nothing else has changed, except that volume returned to mostly insider trading. Participation levels are dropping like stones off a high bridge. It is possible that average people are awakening to the scheming ways of Wall Street after all. Most of the trading is being done by big banks, brokerages, hedge funds and mutual funds. Eventually, after they've fleeced the American - and foreign - public enough, they'll begin to eat each other's lunches and the market will be exposed for the grossly overvalued, manipulated joke it has become over the past two decades.
NYSE Volume 4,827,693,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,897,280,250
Oil was up $2.17, to $82.17, based on nothing but naked speculation and greed. Gold was up $6.10, to $1,110.30; silver higher by 48 cents, to $17.37, same reasons. Once again, in the face of a dawdling global economy and slack demand, prices continue to rise in stark contradiction to the "laws" of supply and demand.
Wake up, people. You toil all day, and sometimes part of your night, to do what? Pay utility bills, car payments, fuel, insurance and taxes. When that's all done you can look at what's left and Wall Street brokerages expect you to invest for your "retirement" or your kid's college education.
Get real. If retirement was such a grand idea, we'd do it when we're in our 20s or 30s not in our 70s and 80s. It's only because we're worth less as employees at that age: slower, less controllable, wiser, that companies want us to move along. You keep writing those checks. I'll keep telling you why it's a no-win situation.
AT&T quietly announced late Friday that they would take a $1 billion charge because of all the evil new costs included in the heath care reform bill. One has to ask why they didn't mention this while the bill was in committee or on the senate and house floors. No, they just sat back and watched a billion dollars evaporate without raising their corporate voice?
Tell you what: any company that is that reckless with investor money should not be in your portfolio. If you own any AT&T stock, or the stock of any company that takes a write-off due to increased costs associated with the recently-passed health care reform bill, SELL IT, SELL ALL OF IT, SELL ALL OF IT NOW. They don't deserve your business, and furthermore, they're a sick, twisted bunch of creeps. Remember, AT&T was one of the companies which allowed the government unfettered access to YOUR phone calls, violated your privacy and probably broke numerous laws, but got away scott free. Screw them. They only care about themselves, not you, your cell phone or your land line. Just your money, that's all.
Not that I am particularly enamored with the health care legislation - I'm not - but AT&T is just using it as a scapegoat to cut employee benefits and/or hide other losses. Face it folks, these people are about as honest as Bernie Madoff's accountant.
Dow 10,895.86, +45.50 (0.42%)
NASDAQ 2,404.36, +9.23 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,173.32, +6.73 (0.58%)
NYSE Composite 7,464.90, +61.32 (0.83%)
As usual, advancing issues outdid decliners, 4212-2245. There were 369 new highs and 42 new lows. So, nothing else has changed, except that volume returned to mostly insider trading. Participation levels are dropping like stones off a high bridge. It is possible that average people are awakening to the scheming ways of Wall Street after all. Most of the trading is being done by big banks, brokerages, hedge funds and mutual funds. Eventually, after they've fleeced the American - and foreign - public enough, they'll begin to eat each other's lunches and the market will be exposed for the grossly overvalued, manipulated joke it has become over the past two decades.
NYSE Volume 4,827,693,500
NASDAQ Volume 1,897,280,250
Oil was up $2.17, to $82.17, based on nothing but naked speculation and greed. Gold was up $6.10, to $1,110.30; silver higher by 48 cents, to $17.37, same reasons. Once again, in the face of a dawdling global economy and slack demand, prices continue to rise in stark contradiction to the "laws" of supply and demand.
Wake up, people. You toil all day, and sometimes part of your night, to do what? Pay utility bills, car payments, fuel, insurance and taxes. When that's all done you can look at what's left and Wall Street brokerages expect you to invest for your "retirement" or your kid's college education.
Get real. If retirement was such a grand idea, we'd do it when we're in our 20s or 30s not in our 70s and 80s. It's only because we're worth less as employees at that age: slower, less controllable, wiser, that companies want us to move along. You keep writing those checks. I'll keep telling you why it's a no-win situation.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Equities Break Down, Break Even
For the second straight day, a nascent rally in stocks was shut off by outside events, today's supposed culprit a South Korean military vessel apparently sunk by an enemy torpedo.
Who could be so brash, unkind, unthinking? Ah, yes, Kim Jung Il, that man everybody loves to hate, and the perfect scapegoat for any kind of unpleasantness. Last week I couldn't locate my car keys and, certain that the evil North Korean ruler was behind their disappearance, I rattled off a series of insulting emails demanding their return.
And it worked! The keys mysteriously showed up on the kitchen counter within minutes.
So, one can understand with all seriousness how the actions of a crazy, totalitarian slave-master would have such an immediate affect on all the stocks listed on the American exchanges. Surely, if North Korea wants to be provocative and warlike, then it can't be good for Proctor Gamble, Apple or any of the other 6000-odd equities trading on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
It just goes to show how ludicrous and deceptive the financial media has become. Once somebody comes up with an idea, it's run with, whether it makes sense or not, whether it has anything more to do with the value of stocks in play than the weather, or Tiger Wood's 9-hole score, or your kid's grade on a math test.
With analysis such as comes from CNBC or any of a hundred or more boutique financial PR firms or thousands of press releases, no wonder trading stocks is so complicated and so often seemingly without rhyme nor reason. That's why having a nice, healthy horde of cash, diamonds, gold and other nifty stuff you can sell is always a good idea. If the world gets even crazier than it already is, you might have something that somebody wants, and they'll pay you for the pleasure of holding onto it. Seems almost barbaric, doesn't it?
Dow 10,850.36, +9.15 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,395.13, -2.28 (0.10%)
S&P 500 1,166.59, -0.86 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 7,403.53, -17.93 (0.24%)
Regardless of what happened off the shores of the Korean peninsula, winners and losers were nearly evenly divided, the final score being, gainers: 3288; decliners: 3194. There was a dearth of new highs, just 296 of them, as today marked the one-year anniversary of a rather substantial move in the markets, a 175-point gain on the Dow (to 7925), making comparisons to a year ago somewhat less pronounced. Volume reverted back to the norm, sluggish.
NYSE Volume 5,382,776,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,172,191,000
Commodity prices continued the divergence which began yesterday, with oil down 53 cents, to an even $80 per barrel, but gold up $11.50, to $1,104.20, and silver tagging along, higher by 17 cents, to $16.89.
The government officially pegged 1st quarter GDP at 5.6%, The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index improved to 73.6, from a downwardly-revised 72.5 in February.
Nothing really mattered. It was the best of times; it was the worst of times...
Enjoy the first weekend of Spring. If you're in the North, you should have seeds already germinating; if you're in the South, sprouts; and if you're in California, apparently you're growing stuff not to eat, but to smoke. Shameful.
Who could be so brash, unkind, unthinking? Ah, yes, Kim Jung Il, that man everybody loves to hate, and the perfect scapegoat for any kind of unpleasantness. Last week I couldn't locate my car keys and, certain that the evil North Korean ruler was behind their disappearance, I rattled off a series of insulting emails demanding their return.
And it worked! The keys mysteriously showed up on the kitchen counter within minutes.
So, one can understand with all seriousness how the actions of a crazy, totalitarian slave-master would have such an immediate affect on all the stocks listed on the American exchanges. Surely, if North Korea wants to be provocative and warlike, then it can't be good for Proctor Gamble, Apple or any of the other 6000-odd equities trading on the NYSE or NASDAQ.
It just goes to show how ludicrous and deceptive the financial media has become. Once somebody comes up with an idea, it's run with, whether it makes sense or not, whether it has anything more to do with the value of stocks in play than the weather, or Tiger Wood's 9-hole score, or your kid's grade on a math test.
With analysis such as comes from CNBC or any of a hundred or more boutique financial PR firms or thousands of press releases, no wonder trading stocks is so complicated and so often seemingly without rhyme nor reason. That's why having a nice, healthy horde of cash, diamonds, gold and other nifty stuff you can sell is always a good idea. If the world gets even crazier than it already is, you might have something that somebody wants, and they'll pay you for the pleasure of holding onto it. Seems almost barbaric, doesn't it?
Dow 10,850.36, +9.15 (0.08%)
NASDAQ 2,395.13, -2.28 (0.10%)
S&P 500 1,166.59, -0.86 (0.07%)
NYSE Composite 7,403.53, -17.93 (0.24%)
Regardless of what happened off the shores of the Korean peninsula, winners and losers were nearly evenly divided, the final score being, gainers: 3288; decliners: 3194. There was a dearth of new highs, just 296 of them, as today marked the one-year anniversary of a rather substantial move in the markets, a 175-point gain on the Dow (to 7925), making comparisons to a year ago somewhat less pronounced. Volume reverted back to the norm, sluggish.
NYSE Volume 5,382,776,500
NASDAQ Volume 2,172,191,000
Commodity prices continued the divergence which began yesterday, with oil down 53 cents, to an even $80 per barrel, but gold up $11.50, to $1,104.20, and silver tagging along, higher by 17 cents, to $16.89.
The government officially pegged 1st quarter GDP at 5.6%, The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index improved to 73.6, from a downwardly-revised 72.5 in February.
Nothing really mattered. It was the best of times; it was the worst of times...
Enjoy the first weekend of Spring. If you're in the North, you should have seeds already germinating; if you're in the South, sprouts; and if you're in California, apparently you're growing stuff not to eat, but to smoke. Shameful.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Turn-Around Thursday: Greece, US $$ Bury Stock Gains?
Well, it's simply not all sunshine and roses out there after all. On a day in which market pumpers from the major brokerages were attempting to take the Dow over the magical 11,000 mark, turmoil in the Eurozone and strength of the US dollar killed all hopes of a smooth recovery.
The headlines from the various media would have you believe that investors are snapping up stocks like jelly beans on Easter morning and that the bad, old world of Europe, which just can't get its own house in order caused so much worry that everybody sold at once around 3:00 in the afternoon.
Folks, don't be silly. The selling began as soon as the dow crossed the threshold of 10,500, around 1:30 pm. There was no news at that point, except some rumors that Jean Claude Trichet, president of the Europen Central Bank, warned that the bailout of Greece should not involve the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a US export which has consistently stolen wealth from less-fortunate or less-well-armed nations. As it turns out, the EU will be in partnership with the IMF, with the latter handling 1/3 of the Greece debt solution. Good for us, though only if you agree with bullying smaller countries.
It's a working plan, without firm details, though Greece's senior notes are now graded as junk, BBB-. What happened at 3:00? Nothing, except that an ordinary time of day for heavy traders to make moves. And they did all move almost at once, selling, so as to lock in their profits from earlier in the session. This is nothing new. It is a normal trading day move, and nothing more. Reading anything more into a mid-session reversal is usually a bad idea, though this kind of thing could become more commonplace. If stocks continue to gallop higher, look for astute traders to take day-trade profits over and over again.
Dollar strength is good for the US economy, folks. Don't let anybody try to tell you otherwise. A stronger dollar means imports cost less. Sure, exports are more expensive and thus, less marketable around the world, but that shouldn't matter - either to you or most multi-national corporations - you don't export and the big companies nowadays have their manufacturing offshore, in other countries, where labor is cheaper. Besides, they're selling things like industrial tractors, nuclear plants and other extremely high-ticket items where price pretty much takes a back seat to other functions like delivery time and overall quality.
So, sure, the US dollar was marked up today, not because the US is in such outstanding shape, but because Europe is a basket case. US dollars just looked better by comparison, at least for the short term. The trend is positive for US consumers, maybe not for US companies as a rule, but, by no means is a stronger dollar anything but good.
Thus, trader sentiment, and the lust for a quick profit, had more to do with turning a 90-point move higher on the dow into a 5-point gain at the close, and a 25-point NASDAQ gain into a small loss. Tough cookies. Live with it.
Dow 10,841.21, +5.06 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,397.41, -1.35 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,165.73, -1.99 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,385.60, -22.56 (0.30%)
Surprisingly, volume was excellent, though most of the moves were made in the latter part of the day, when selling was the correct option. Losers outslugged winners, 3936-2583. There were 751 new highs to just 85 new lows.
NYSE Volume 6,429,545,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,589,351,750
The rise in the dollar shot dead a rally in oil and the metals. Crude for May delivery fell 8 cents, to $80.53. Gold, which was up sharply, closed with a gain of just $4.10, at $1,092.70. Silver picked up 10 cents, to close at $16.73 per ounce.
In two stories which have importance only in the context of a post-government era of semi-autonomous anarchy, California will vote in November to legalize marijuana and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and popular truth-telling writer Paul Craig Roberts said he is retiring from the writing business, ending his last column with the words, "As the pen is censored and its might extinguished, I am signing off."
The headlines from the various media would have you believe that investors are snapping up stocks like jelly beans on Easter morning and that the bad, old world of Europe, which just can't get its own house in order caused so much worry that everybody sold at once around 3:00 in the afternoon.
Folks, don't be silly. The selling began as soon as the dow crossed the threshold of 10,500, around 1:30 pm. There was no news at that point, except some rumors that Jean Claude Trichet, president of the Europen Central Bank, warned that the bailout of Greece should not involve the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a US export which has consistently stolen wealth from less-fortunate or less-well-armed nations. As it turns out, the EU will be in partnership with the IMF, with the latter handling 1/3 of the Greece debt solution. Good for us, though only if you agree with bullying smaller countries.
It's a working plan, without firm details, though Greece's senior notes are now graded as junk, BBB-. What happened at 3:00? Nothing, except that an ordinary time of day for heavy traders to make moves. And they did all move almost at once, selling, so as to lock in their profits from earlier in the session. This is nothing new. It is a normal trading day move, and nothing more. Reading anything more into a mid-session reversal is usually a bad idea, though this kind of thing could become more commonplace. If stocks continue to gallop higher, look for astute traders to take day-trade profits over and over again.
Dollar strength is good for the US economy, folks. Don't let anybody try to tell you otherwise. A stronger dollar means imports cost less. Sure, exports are more expensive and thus, less marketable around the world, but that shouldn't matter - either to you or most multi-national corporations - you don't export and the big companies nowadays have their manufacturing offshore, in other countries, where labor is cheaper. Besides, they're selling things like industrial tractors, nuclear plants and other extremely high-ticket items where price pretty much takes a back seat to other functions like delivery time and overall quality.
So, sure, the US dollar was marked up today, not because the US is in such outstanding shape, but because Europe is a basket case. US dollars just looked better by comparison, at least for the short term. The trend is positive for US consumers, maybe not for US companies as a rule, but, by no means is a stronger dollar anything but good.
Thus, trader sentiment, and the lust for a quick profit, had more to do with turning a 90-point move higher on the dow into a 5-point gain at the close, and a 25-point NASDAQ gain into a small loss. Tough cookies. Live with it.
Dow 10,841.21, +5.06 (0.05%)
NASDAQ 2,397.41, -1.35 (0.06%)
S&P 500 1,165.73, -1.99 (0.17%)
NYSE Composite 7,385.60, -22.56 (0.30%)
Surprisingly, volume was excellent, though most of the moves were made in the latter part of the day, when selling was the correct option. Losers outslugged winners, 3936-2583. There were 751 new highs to just 85 new lows.
NYSE Volume 6,429,545,000
NASDAQ Volume 2,589,351,750
The rise in the dollar shot dead a rally in oil and the metals. Crude for May delivery fell 8 cents, to $80.53. Gold, which was up sharply, closed with a gain of just $4.10, at $1,092.70. Silver picked up 10 cents, to close at $16.73 per ounce.
In two stories which have importance only in the context of a post-government era of semi-autonomous anarchy, California will vote in November to legalize marijuana and former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury and popular truth-telling writer Paul Craig Roberts said he is retiring from the writing business, ending his last column with the words, "As the pen is censored and its might extinguished, I am signing off."
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