Normally, the last day of the month is marked by incessant buying of momentum stocks by fund managers and other hucksters hoping to impress clients by owning shares of the most popular companies, but today's shopping spree was truncated by a terrible Chicago PMI report, which weighed down markets, sending all of the major indices into the red.
The PMI report, which was released to the public just fifteen minutes into the session, printed at 56.2, the lowest number since November, 2009, missing expectations of 60.0 by a country mile.
Despite any and all opinions to the contrary, this number was just another in a string of disappointing economic data, highlighted by last week's first estimate of first quarter GDP of 2.2% annualized growth. While commentators have thus far downplayed the importance of the GDP figure, the evidence is stark, especially when reinforced by the PMI today.
Not wishing to face the bitter truth that the US - and by many measures, the global - economy has stalled out once again, Wall Street refuses to set about the arduous task of taking profits and marking stocks down to reasonable valuations, whatever those might be. Stocks have been trading far from fundamentals and investors haven't paid heed to the undercurrents of decline in Europe, Asia and here in the Western Hemisphere, though that line of thinking may be changing soon.
Sell in May and Stay Away goes the timeless adage. Why stocks should encounter such a seasonal variation is of questionable veracity, but if oil prices (which declined today) remain elevated as they have been through the summer, the banking and investing goons and their paid servants in Washington DC might get a dose of bad medicine courtesy of Mr. Market, delivered by Adam Smith's fabled invisible hand that routinely cycles in and out of market dynamics and pays special attention to bubbles and irrationality.
Beyond high oil prices, the US housing industry is still in a shambles, despite the clarion call to investors rushing in to snatch up foreclosed properties with the intent to turn them into rentals. This current calamity-in-the-making ignores the most basic tenet of community: home ownership is an issue of pride. Taking what were once owner-occupied dwellings and turning them into rentals (to whom and at what price we do not know) is a basic destructor of neighborhoods and communities. The dwellings fall into disrepair, the neighborhood deteriorates and eventually, the fine "rental investment" becomes a rat hole and drug house, surrounded by wary neighbors who decry their falling property values and eventually abandon the area.
Once a neighborhood changes from owner-occupied to rental status, the changes, though subtle, are irreversible, the tipping point likely reached when at least 40% of the properties assume rental status. The changes may take years or even decades in normal times, though in the current situation, in which home values have already been whacked for a loop, buying at bargain basement prices, while alluring to investors and productive of cash flow, may turn out to be just the beginning of a non-virtuous cycle. Renters move in, neighborhoods decline, property values continue to fall and recouping the original investment may never materialize. The next step in the process is that of the investors walking away, having milked the value from the properties via rental income, the community destroyed by their ravenous profit appetite. That's why neighborhoods become ghettos in the first place and stay ghettos, ever after. Wash, rinse, repeat.
Beside the ill-conceived notion that the real estate market has bottomed (a laughable and lamentable idea if ever there was one - it was the topic of a one-page feature in the current issue of Esquire, so there's that canard), the Fed is stalling on plans for more stimulus, which is apparently needed, even though it doesn't work long run, and Europe is fast-falling into recession. China's growth is being internalized, austerity policies haven't done squiddly-doo to revamp broken sovereign balance sheets and the debt bubble continues to expand.
Some day, the Keynesians in and out of government and the policy houses will finally be outed by forces of markets which are stronger than any academic noise and nonsense. The real world doesn't always cooperate with economic theory and we are seeing it played out at breathtaking pace.
There's truly only one solution for an overhang of malinvestment and debt: loss. And it will surely visit those who have the most to lose.
Mark down April as the worst month for stocks thus far, but lay bets that there will be worse to come.
Dow 13,213.63, -14.68 (0.11%)
NASDAQ 3,046.36, -22.84 (0.74%)
S&P 500 1,397.91, -5.45 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 8,118.95, -32.96 (0.40%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,585,325,125
NYSE Volume 3,379,976,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2056-3568
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 190-40
WTI crude oil: 104.87, -0.06
Gold: 1,664.20, -0.60
Silver: 30.96, -0.39
Monday, April 30, 2012
Saturday, April 28, 2012
Debt Collection Agencies Must Follow the Law
The financial calamity of 2008 and the recession it produced took its toll on business and consumers across America. Personal and business bankruptcies have been a common thread to the weak recovery since the near-fatal economic collapse, and many people still struggle with high debt loads and unrealistic repayment schedules.
Conditions such as have existed for most of the past four years have led to a boom in collections, but also a great deal of abuse by banks, phony credit counseling agencies and the collections firms themselves. Mostly innocent consumers have been berated by phone calls, threatening letters and outlandish demands from unscrupulous operators seeking to capitalize on the misfortune of others.
Fortunately, there are strict laws in almost every state and federal statutes that prohibit many of these bad practices, such as threats of job loss, excessive phone calls at unusual hours and other abhorrent behavior. while the majority of collection firms abide by the laws, there are shady operators who skirt the boundaries and make life miserable for many.
In the Golden State, where the calamity of mortgage debt, job scarcity and personal indebtedness have created a perfect storm for collection agencies, there are many law firms and counseling centers which help stop collection harassment California through advocacy, letter writing and legal tactics that often bring the violators to justice.
Proper procedures must be followed by the collection companies, and they are enumerated by a strong set of laws throughout the country which can help stop collection harassment for good. Collectors, for instance, are prohibited from threatening or harassing consumers. The proper and prohibited procedures are spelled out in simple language in the Fair Debt Collections Practices Act (FDCPA), which gives power back to the people instead of in the hands of the banks and collections agencies.
Having excessive debt isn't always one's own fault, nor is the inability to make timely payments. Fortunately, there are laws which protect consumers and good-hearted companies and lawyers that can help make dealing with debt collectors a little less daunting and in line with the law.
Conditions such as have existed for most of the past four years have led to a boom in collections, but also a great deal of abuse by banks, phony credit counseling agencies and the collections firms themselves. Mostly innocent consumers have been berated by phone calls, threatening letters and outlandish demands from unscrupulous operators seeking to capitalize on the misfortune of others.
Fortunately, there are strict laws in almost every state and federal statutes that prohibit many of these bad practices, such as threats of job loss, excessive phone calls at unusual hours and other abhorrent behavior. while the majority of collection firms abide by the laws, there are shady operators who skirt the boundaries and make life miserable for many.
In the Golden State, where the calamity of mortgage debt, job scarcity and personal indebtedness have created a perfect storm for collection agencies, there are many law firms and counseling centers which help stop collection harassment California through advocacy, letter writing and legal tactics that often bring the violators to justice.
Proper procedures must be followed by the collection companies, and they are enumerated by a strong set of laws throughout the country which can help stop collection harassment for good. Collectors, for instance, are prohibited from threatening or harassing consumers. The proper and prohibited procedures are spelled out in simple language in the Fair Debt Collections Practices Act (FDCPA), which gives power back to the people instead of in the hands of the banks and collections agencies.
Having excessive debt isn't always one's own fault, nor is the inability to make timely payments. Fortunately, there are laws which protect consumers and good-hearted companies and lawyers that can help make dealing with debt collectors a little less daunting and in line with the law.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Stocks Finish Week Dull; 2.2% GDP Gives Pause
Despite first quarter GDP printing at 2.2% prior to the opening bell, there was simply no holding back the animal spirits, as investors continued to shrug off any hint of bad news for the economy and push stocks to nosebleed levels.
Though gains were modest, they nevertheless were gains, based on nothing other than sentiment and greed. New highs expanded dramatically over a paucity of new lows.
Oil, gold and silver all posted modest gains. Overall, it was one of the duller sessions of the year, the typical low volume dynamic fully in play.
Dow 13,228.31, +23.69 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,069.20, +18.59 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,403.36, +3.38 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 8,151.91, +28.84 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,807,514,500
NYSE Volume 3,645,831,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3714-1855
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 347-42
WTI crude oil: 104.93, +0.38
Gold: 1,664.80, +4.30
Silver: 31.35, +0.14
Though gains were modest, they nevertheless were gains, based on nothing other than sentiment and greed. New highs expanded dramatically over a paucity of new lows.
Oil, gold and silver all posted modest gains. Overall, it was one of the duller sessions of the year, the typical low volume dynamic fully in play.
Dow 13,228.31, +23.69 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,069.20, +18.59 (0.61%)
S&P 500 1,403.36, +3.38 (0.24%)
NYSE Composite 8,151.91, +28.84 (0.36%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,807,514,500
NYSE Volume 3,645,831,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3714-1855
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 347-42
WTI crude oil: 104.93, +0.38
Gold: 1,664.80, +4.30
Silver: 31.35, +0.14
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Markets Churn Higher on Absence of Data
There was little to move stocks in either direction today, but the algorithm-driven dynamic kept the same tone as it has pretty much since October and churned higher without any heed to downside risk.
Initial unemployment claims continued to be elevated, coming in at 388K after last week's revised 389K reading. The most positive news was pending home sales for March coming in 4.1% higher, a significant beat of expectations of a mere 0.5% gain.
Otherwise, there were a number of misses on corporate first quarter earnings reports, including UPS (UPS) and Dow Chemical (DD), but that didn't hold back stocks in the least as they started the day slowly and continued higher throughout the session, reaching the highs for the day shortly after 3:00 pm EDT.
There was a slight pullback into the close, but the final figures left the Dow Jones Industrials just 60 points from fresh four-year highs and the S&P 500 closing just two cents shy of 1400, a mark the index has not closed above since April 3rd.
Europe finished mixed, though the gains and losses of the particular exchanges were marginal. As has been the case over the past six to seven months, the absence of any kind of news out of Europe - which has been routinely bad - gives US markets a nudge higher, and such was the case on today's trading.
Analysts are hopeful that the week's gains can be sustained after Friday's first estimate of first quarter 2012 GDP, which will be announced prior to the market open. Market expectations are for somewhere between 2.5% and 3.0% growth, which would not be surprising, given a US economy that is being spoon-fed by government largesse, with more than 45 million Americans on food stamps and millions more receiving some form of government assistance while the Fed continues to dole out money hand over fist through its Operation Twist.
While all this stealth stimulus may be giving stocks a relatively easy time of it, at some point the government will have to deal with the monstrous deficits and the growing underfunding of the entitlement programs.
Being an election year, however, neither congress nor the president will go legislatively within earshot of those issues except in well-rehearsed campaign speeches, so, the current conditions will continue uninterrupted - barring some unforeseen event - until November. On the other hand, the Fed's current easing cycle will end in June, and it will be interesting to note how well the markets handle any lack of support.
Until further notice, it appears to be smooth sailing for stock hawkers, traders and investors. Somewhat counterintuitive, the precious metals had their best showing in weeks, though they remain range-bound.
Dow 13,204.62, +113.90 (0.87%)
NASDAQ 3,050.61, +20.98 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,399.98, +9.29 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 8,123.07, +52.29 (0.65%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,722,965,375
NYSE Volume 3,864,227,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3682-1910
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 259-46
WTI crude oil: 104.55, +0.43
Gold: 1,660.50, +18.20
Silver: 31.21, +0.85
Initial unemployment claims continued to be elevated, coming in at 388K after last week's revised 389K reading. The most positive news was pending home sales for March coming in 4.1% higher, a significant beat of expectations of a mere 0.5% gain.
Otherwise, there were a number of misses on corporate first quarter earnings reports, including UPS (UPS) and Dow Chemical (DD), but that didn't hold back stocks in the least as they started the day slowly and continued higher throughout the session, reaching the highs for the day shortly after 3:00 pm EDT.
There was a slight pullback into the close, but the final figures left the Dow Jones Industrials just 60 points from fresh four-year highs and the S&P 500 closing just two cents shy of 1400, a mark the index has not closed above since April 3rd.
Europe finished mixed, though the gains and losses of the particular exchanges were marginal. As has been the case over the past six to seven months, the absence of any kind of news out of Europe - which has been routinely bad - gives US markets a nudge higher, and such was the case on today's trading.
Analysts are hopeful that the week's gains can be sustained after Friday's first estimate of first quarter 2012 GDP, which will be announced prior to the market open. Market expectations are for somewhere between 2.5% and 3.0% growth, which would not be surprising, given a US economy that is being spoon-fed by government largesse, with more than 45 million Americans on food stamps and millions more receiving some form of government assistance while the Fed continues to dole out money hand over fist through its Operation Twist.
While all this stealth stimulus may be giving stocks a relatively easy time of it, at some point the government will have to deal with the monstrous deficits and the growing underfunding of the entitlement programs.
Being an election year, however, neither congress nor the president will go legislatively within earshot of those issues except in well-rehearsed campaign speeches, so, the current conditions will continue uninterrupted - barring some unforeseen event - until November. On the other hand, the Fed's current easing cycle will end in June, and it will be interesting to note how well the markets handle any lack of support.
Until further notice, it appears to be smooth sailing for stock hawkers, traders and investors. Somewhat counterintuitive, the precious metals had their best showing in weeks, though they remain range-bound.
Dow 13,204.62, +113.90 (0.87%)
NASDAQ 3,050.61, +20.98 (0.69%)
S&P 500 1,399.98, +9.29 (0.67%)
NYSE Composite 8,123.07, +52.29 (0.65%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,722,965,375
NYSE Volume 3,864,227,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3682-1910
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 259-46
WTI crude oil: 104.55, +0.43
Gold: 1,660.50, +18.20
Silver: 31.21, +0.85
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Computer-driven Market Continues to Defy Gravity
Following Apple's huge beat on first quarter earnings after yesterday's closing bell, nothing was going to stop the Wall Street horde from bidding up everything tech and everything else, for that matter.
Stocks roared out of the gate, despite the worst durable goods orders in more than three years. The 4.2% decline for March was the worst print since January of 2009.
Even such a negative report on a critical indicator could not stop the flurry of computer-driven orders (now a full 83% of the total market) from diving headlong into equities. Apple (AAPL) opened the trading day more than 50 points to the upside (nearly 9%) and held steady through the remainder of the session, finishing with a gain of 49.72 to close at 610, rendering the sharp losses of the past two weeks to the dustbin of history.
When the FOMC announced no change in interest rate policy - keeping the targeted federal funds rate at 0 to 25 basis points - and little change in the wording of their statement (though slightly more hawkish), there was barely a reaction, as computers programmed to buy don't react to announcements of no change to a failed macro-economic policy.
This is truly not your father's stock market. Algorithmic trading has turned what once was the engine of the financial world into a complete farce where humans have little to do or say and fundamentals do not matter. There is rarely a reasoned reaction to any economic news, only an incessant grind higher. In addition to the computer-driven market dynamics, the advent of weekly options trading has turned US markets into a carnival that would give honest casinos a bad name.
Daily swings of enormous percentages are now the norm, as the algos follow each other into buying patterns that do not recognize downside risk. There is no place for the individual investor as the machines have a huge advantage in both timing and speed of execution, which is why stocks trade more or less on the futures, causing massive gaps to either the upside or downside upon market opening, locking out small limit orders. There is no way to play in such a controlled sandbox, as any gains will already be taken by the HFT machines and their controllers before an order can be properly executed.
That is why volume will continue to remain on the light side. Individual investors stand no chance of making profits and have stayed away, despite the outlandish and often ridiculous gains.
Global thermo-nuclear war could break out and the computers would still trade stocks higher. It's like a bad Terminator movie, in which the puny humans are no match for the pre-programmed droids.
Dow 13,090.72, +89.16 (0.69%)
NASDAQ 3,029.63, +68.03 (2.30%)
S&P 500 1,390.69, +18.72 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,070.84, +82.82 (1.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,697,138,250
NYSE Volume 3,981,364,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4223-1395
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-42
WTI crude oil: 104.12, +0.57
Gold: 1,642.30, -1.50
Silver: 30.36, -0.39
Stocks roared out of the gate, despite the worst durable goods orders in more than three years. The 4.2% decline for March was the worst print since January of 2009.
Even such a negative report on a critical indicator could not stop the flurry of computer-driven orders (now a full 83% of the total market) from diving headlong into equities. Apple (AAPL) opened the trading day more than 50 points to the upside (nearly 9%) and held steady through the remainder of the session, finishing with a gain of 49.72 to close at 610, rendering the sharp losses of the past two weeks to the dustbin of history.
When the FOMC announced no change in interest rate policy - keeping the targeted federal funds rate at 0 to 25 basis points - and little change in the wording of their statement (though slightly more hawkish), there was barely a reaction, as computers programmed to buy don't react to announcements of no change to a failed macro-economic policy.
This is truly not your father's stock market. Algorithmic trading has turned what once was the engine of the financial world into a complete farce where humans have little to do or say and fundamentals do not matter. There is rarely a reasoned reaction to any economic news, only an incessant grind higher. In addition to the computer-driven market dynamics, the advent of weekly options trading has turned US markets into a carnival that would give honest casinos a bad name.
Daily swings of enormous percentages are now the norm, as the algos follow each other into buying patterns that do not recognize downside risk. There is no place for the individual investor as the machines have a huge advantage in both timing and speed of execution, which is why stocks trade more or less on the futures, causing massive gaps to either the upside or downside upon market opening, locking out small limit orders. There is no way to play in such a controlled sandbox, as any gains will already be taken by the HFT machines and their controllers before an order can be properly executed.
That is why volume will continue to remain on the light side. Individual investors stand no chance of making profits and have stayed away, despite the outlandish and often ridiculous gains.
Global thermo-nuclear war could break out and the computers would still trade stocks higher. It's like a bad Terminator movie, in which the puny humans are no match for the pre-programmed droids.
Dow 13,090.72, +89.16 (0.69%)
NASDAQ 3,029.63, +68.03 (2.30%)
S&P 500 1,390.69, +18.72 (1.36%)
NYSE Composite 8,070.84, +82.82 (1.04%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,697,138,250
NYSE Volume 3,981,364,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4223-1395
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 215-42
WTI crude oil: 104.12, +0.57
Gold: 1,642.30, -1.50
Silver: 30.36, -0.39
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