Stocks Slammed Again; Dow Transports Down 17%; Bear Market Confirmed; Gold Cracks $3,000; Silver Over $34; Oil Breaks 7-Week Slide

Editor's Note: This will be an abbreviated version of the WEEKEND WRAP. We have not had internet access since Friday morning and it's not supposed to be back in service until Wednesday at the earliest. Working from a remote, less-than-ideal location. -FR

Stocks

Friday's reaction rally saved the week for stock enthusiasts. Without the substantial upside returns to end the week, the major indices would have suffered another week like the last, which remains, at this juncture, the worst of the year.

Particularly troubling is the Dow Jones Transportation Average, an important index which none the less gets scant coverage. Despite a nearly two percent gain on Friday, the index fell to a nine-month low, losing more than six percent just this week.

From an all-time closing high November 25, 2024 of 17,754.38 to Friday's close at 14,643.53, it is down 17.42%.

All of the major indices have fallen below their respective 200-day moving averages and 40-week moving averages. This kind of activity indicates deeper, structural problems, not investors fretting over tariffs, government shutdowns (which don't ever actually occur), or even the slew of Trump executive orders and Elon Musk's ravaging of the federal government.

All of the major indices are down year-to-date, except for the NYSE Composite, which, thanks to Friday's 355-point gain, is clinging to a 0.70% gain. For the year, the Dow is off 2.48%, NASDAQ down 8.06%, S&P down 4.13%, and the Transportation Average is shed 7.88%.

Dow Theorists seeking confirmation of a change in the Primary Trend - from bullish to bearish - got it this week on Monday when the Dow Jones Industrials closed below its previous low of 41,938.45 (1/10/24). The move was exacerbated Thursday when the Industrials finished the session at 40,813.57, a six-month low, a move that chartists largely expected.

From its high on December 4 (45,014.04) to Friday's close, the Dow is down 7.83% and came close to the magic 10% down figure that everybody calls correction territory. There's nothing significant about a 10% decline other than the fact that it has become the standard number for corrections. Corrections can be anywhere from 5 to 15 percent, so to say that all the indices aren't already in correction is denying the obvious.

Whether or not the correction becomes a bear market is all a matter of trend spotting and anyone with open eyes can see that the trend is lower. Dow Theorists are likely not the only people who are assessing the Primary Trend condition correctly.

Any good technical analyst can see that market activity from Feruary 18 forward has all the earmarks of the first leg of a bear market, which is typified by sudden large losses. Bingo! We have a winner. The talking heads and Wall Street mouths will not acknowledge that salient fact until it's too late and many people are stuck with losses.

It's also evident that institutions have been unloading at a pace that is close to frantic. Selling winners and losers alike, the big money is taking profits and shedding losers at the same time. It's likely that all the major indices will struggle along between being down eight to 15 percent for a few months, as the second stage of the Bear market - which is longer, choppier, but even more painful - ensues.

A few stragglers are still reporting earnings next week, though few of any importance. Thursday looks like the banner day with Nike and FedEx after the close.

Monday: (before open) Townsquare (TSQ), Diversified Energy (DEC); (after close) Getty Images (GETY), Harrow Health (HROW)

Tuesday: (before open) Bitcoin Depot (BTM), Tencent Music (TME); (after close) Inovio (INO)

Wednesday: (before open) Signet Jewelers (SIG), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), Ollie's (OLLI)Tencent (TCEHY); (after close) Five Below (FIVE), Gold Royalty (GROY)

Thursday: (before open) Academy Sports (ASO), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Jabil (JBL), Accenture (ACN), Land's End (LE); (after close) Nike (NIKE), FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN).

Friday: (before open) Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL).

Tuesday and Wednesday's FOMC meeting will dominate the airwaves, despite the nearly 100% assurance that they will make no rate moves.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
02/07/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05
03/14/2025	4.37	4.36	4.33	4.33	4.30	4.29	4.09

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62
03/14/2025	4.02	4.00	4.09	4.20	4.31	4.65	4.62

The second FOMC meeting of 2025 takes place Tuesday and Wednesday, with the rate policy announcement at 2:00 pm Wednesday, accompanied by quarterly economic projections and a press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell.

Expected to do what the Fed does best - nothing - the meeting will still be a dominant theme early in the week. Markets usually demonstrate calmness in the days leading up to a FOMC meeting, though in advance of this one, of which the outcome is already known with near 100% certainty, things could get a little junpy.

Besides the forecast of the Fed staying on hold, monetary policy and short term interest rates are becoming less and less influential in the face of increased activity on the fiscal side, making the sport of Fed-watching the ultimate exercise in futility. Many of the floor and desk traders will be more interested in filling out brackets for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament which begins Tuesday.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33
3/14: +29

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24
3/14: +25

Oil/Gas

The fall in the price of WTI crude oil that reached seven straight weeks on Friday closes is over. After dropping from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, $69.95 on the 28th, to $67.05 on the New York close on March 7, the price was up slightly to $67.19, which, despite a gain of 14 cents on the week, isn't really big news, especially since it dropped to a low of $65.52 on Monday, March 10.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump down two cents from last week, at $3.04. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling as long as crude prices continue to drop. There's a lag time of anywhere from three to six weeks, as previous deliveries at higher prices are wound down.

California remains on top, though down a another six cents from last week, at $4.61. Oklahoma and Texas tied for the lowest at $2.60.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 39 U.S. states with more to come.

Bitcoin

This week: $84,425.85
Last week: $83,414.10
2 weeks ago: $94,335.26
6 months ago: $58,078.76
One year ago: $68,476.68
Five years ago: $6,872.02

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. There's an even chance of it going back to that level as there is falling to around $65,000 in the weeks and months ahead.

As Money Daily has expressed confidently in the past, bitcoin is a sham which will eventually become worthless.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.76; last week: 89.64

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70
Gold price 2/9: $2,993.60

Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55
Silver price 2/9: $34.11

Gold and silver continue to do what they do best, discounting the $US and other fiat currencies. Gold topped $3,000 on the COMEX this week, hitting a high of $3,014. Silver remains a breakout candidate, though $35 appears to be significant resistance. Patience is key.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	35.00	49.95	42.07	41.38
1 oz silver bar:	34.00	49.95	42.95	42.62
1 oz gold coin:	2,895.00	3,212.50	3,144.68	3,183.24
1 oz gold bar:	2,999.99	3,187.56	3,130.38	3,128.81

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) marched higher on the week, to $42.26, a gain of $1.80 from the March 9 price of $40.46 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Some people - mostly Wall Street sell-side analysts and their clients - believe the recent volatility is nothing more than a correction and possibly some profit-taking. To the rubes who allow bank and brokerage "wealth management" consultants to manage their money, it's always the same story. "Oh, don't sell, this is nothing", or, "we have strategies to manage situations like this."

They never, ever reveal to clients what their internal analysis is saying because that might cause people to pull their funds out and leave the brokers and dealers without OPM (Other People's Money) with which to play. Can't have that.

In the end, whenever there's a significant market downturn, they'll always advise to "stay the course" and "think long-term" while selling all of their own shares. Wall Street brokers are a bunch of snake oil salesmen, and that may be a compliment. Mostly, they're just crooks in nice suits, in much the same manner as politicians.

That said, the recent direction of the market indicates more - not less - volatility ahead. Ending the week with big gains on Friday is one of the oldest tricks in the books. By pumping stocks into the weekend (while cashing in on call options purchsed earlier in the week or beforehand), the general public, which has the market acumen and attention span of a flea, a snail, or a worm, goes home happy for the weekend, thinking all is well and next week will be better.

For the record, Friday results from the start of 2025 to the present (simple UP or DOWN):

Walking backwards,

date/index	Dow	NASDAQ	S&P 500	NYSE Comp.
3/14	UP	UP	UP	UP
3/7	UP	UP	UP	UP
2/28	UP	UP	UP	UP
2/21	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
2/14	DOWN	UP	DOWN (0.41)	DOWN
2/7	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
1/31	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
1/24	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	UP
1/17	UP	UP	UP	UP
1/10	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN
1/3	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN	DOWN

In 6 out of the 11 weeks, the result for the week was the opposite (or close to it) of what happened on Friday alone.

In 4, the result was the same.

In 1 instance, the result was mixed.

For the past three weeks, however, the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all finished UP on Friday, but the result for the week was DOWN, except on February 28, when only the Dow finished UP on Friday and for the week.

For those with poor pattern recognition skills and/or not paying much attention (retired Boomers in their McMansions with over $1 million in stocks), it's a roller coaster and they can't get off.

At the Close, Friday, March 14, 2025:
Dow: 41,488.19, +674.62 (+1.65%)
NASDAQ: 17,754.09, +451.07 (+2.61%)
S&P 500: 5,638.94, +117.42 (+2.13%)
NTSE Composite: 19,231.35, +355.82 (+1.89%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1313.53 (-3.07%)
NASDAQ: -442.13, (-2.43%)
S&P 500: -131.26 (-2.27%)
NYSE Composite: -341.71 (-1.75%)
Dow Transports: -966.89 (-6.19%)

PPI Flat for Februrary as Market Remains Nervous Over Tariffs, Dis-inflation, and Recession; Gold Gains, Silver Fails to Advance

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ each got a reprieve from selling after finishing lower the first two days of the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not, marking its third straight session in the red.

In an up-and-down Wednesday session, the S&P and NASDAQ chopped their way from early losses to finish on the upside, thanks to a moderate CPI reading for February.

This morning's February PPI didn't offer any similar relief, coming in flat as compared to January's hike of 0.6% and December 0.5% rise.

The BLS reported:

The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January and 0.5 percent in December 2024. On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.

This reading provides yet more evidence that inflation is no longer the main problem facing the economy, because deflation or dis-inflation are accompanying the Trump administration's policies of downsizing government (DOGE), deporting illegals, and issuing tariffs across the globe.

The smartest guys on Wall Street are more than likely clued in to this sudden change, though they, and the financial "journalists" covering the markets and economy are not about to talk openly about it. That might scare the muppets even more than rising prices. Instead, they're keeping the information on the QT, selling off losers and taking profits on winners, of which there have been many over the past 16-18 months.

When the PPI figure was announced, there was no joy to be seen nor heard in lower Manhattan. On one hand, flat producer prices aren't exactly what the inflation-lovers at the Fed and in Wall Street brokerage houses want to hear. In case it even matters at all any more, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to even consider lowering the federal funds target rate at its meeting next week or in any subsequent meeting for the time being. The only condition under which the Fed might drop the key rate would be in the case of an imminent recession, to provide stimulus to the business community and ease up on consumers, but that condition has yet to materialize.

It likely will in months ahead, perhaps even as early as late April, when first quarter GDP is estimated. Current projections are for the U.S. economy to have shrunk by 2-3% for the quarter, though it's still too early to tell. Market participants may get their wish sooner than expected, though not for the reasons they prefer, and maybe not at all.

All that was elicited from stock futures when the PPI was announced was a huge yawn, as though PPI was a rag doll compared to Wednesday's beauty queen CPI.

With the market minutes from opening, Dow futures are down 80 points, NASDAQ futures off 74, and S&P futures dragged down 13.

WTI crude futures, which have been priced higher the past two days after Monday's collapse to $65.52, is down once again, off 54 cents, at $67.51, a price which is not encouraging to producers.

Gold topped $2,950 on the COMEX this morning, though silver refuses to be bid above $33.50, already backing off slightly, to $33.35.

With nothing big happening on Friday, Thursday's trade may offer some insight as to how low markets may want to go.

At the Close, Wednesday, March 12, 2025:
Dow: 41,350.93, -82.55 (-0.20%)
NASDAQ: 17,648.45, +212.35 (+1.22%)
S&P 500: 5,599.30, +27.23 (+0.49%)
NYSE Composite: 19,051.64, -0.49 (-0.00%)

Soft CPI Signals Inflation Easing Though Wall Street Is Getting the Wrong Memo; Dis-inflation, Deflation, Unemployment On Tap

According to the completely honest and always-reliable Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS):

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Naturally, since the monthly data came in below expectations, Wall Street was ecstatic, sending stock futures soaring, which is kind of humorous since inflation - as Money Daily has been pointing out for weeks - is not the main issue facing the economy, but the opposite, dis-inflation or deflation, the natural outcome of Trump policies of tariffs, deportations, and government downsizing which continue to be implemented.

These policies will take months to be realized, possibly not until late summer or fall, but deflation will be an issue along with elevated unemployment. Wall Street traders, after two consecutive days of losses and more than a month of down-trending, doesn't care to look beyond the ends of their noses, but instead are seeking any kind of signal to buy the deep dip, and it appears the benign inflation data is the ideal tonic.

Adding to the euphoria was the House on Tuesday passing a stop-gap funding bill (CR) that will keep the government operational through the end of the current fiscal year (September 30). The kicker there is that congressmen, investors, and mainstream media wind-up dolls will express great dismay as Trump and Musk (remember, these are businessmen) continue to cut budgets and not spend all that's been appropriated, effective coming in "under budget", the effect being fewer federal employees, fewer government contracts, and a general squeeze on money being pumped into the economy, the hallmark of every administrations since Ronald Reagan.

While today's stock burst may be followed by another round of gleeful cheerleading when PPI is released tomorrow, the overall effect will be short-lived. Institutions have ben taking profits for weeks and months, stocks will remain overvalued for a while, until GDP gets reported the last week of April and shows that the first quarter was contracting and the U.S. is already in a recession.

That's the general prognosis, but one worth keeping in mind as the Wall Street drones, which know only how to buy stocks, keep pushing the "all's well" narrative.

Stay informed and don't be fooled. The primary trend has reversed. Bear market conditions are prevalent.

A half hour before the open, Dow futures are up 305 points, NASDAQ futures ahead by 335, and S&P futures sailing along, up 65.

Gold is bid at $2,925, but the bigger story may be silver, which is headed toward the October highs, currently trading at or near breakout levels above $33.45.

At the Close, Tuesday, March 11, 2025:
Dow: 41,433.48, -478.23 (-1.14%)
NASDAQ: 17,436.10, -32.23 (-0.18%)
S&P 500: 5,572.07, -42.49 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 19,052.13, -150.25 (-0.78%)

Stocks Take Deep Dive on Trump Recession Possibility; NASDAQ Goes Deeper Into Correction: Dow Industrials Confirm Primary Trend Reversal

Suffice it to say that Monday's market action was not a good way to start the week. However, judging by market activity the past few weeks, it was readily predictable and maybe even inevitable.

The bad news is that it appears there's more to come. The good news is that there's likely to be a bounce-back rally of some magnitude.

On Sunday's WEEKEND WRAP, the question was whether or not the Dow Industrials would confirm the drop on the Dow Transports essential to the Dow Theory's Primary Trend Reversal. The answer was a loud and clear, resounding yes.

Not only did the Dow close below the most recent low (41,938.45, January 10), but the intra-day low of 41,612.92, was down with earlier closing lows from October 31 (41,763.46) and November 4, 2024 (41,749.60), essentially a double bottom. Late-day tape-painting once again saved the Dow from an ignominious finish, tacking on just less than 300 points in the final 48 minutes.

The NASDAQ, quite naturally, as it remains the most overpriced of the majors, took the brunt of the deal, losing four percent on the day. While the 727.90-point loss on the NASDAQ was the third-highest ever, in percentage terms, it didn't even make the top 25.

The S&P's loss of 155.64 comes in as the ninth-highest ever, but the 2.70 percentage loss was not even close to the top 40. Incidentally, the top 20 largest-point losses on both the NASDAQ and S&P are all from 2020 forward, attesting to overvaluation in extremis.

In any case, Monday was not "The Big One."

Year-to-date, the NASDAQ is down 9.54% and already in correction (-10% or more). The S&P is off 4.54% and the Dow a mere 1.49%.

Overall, the economic outlook is rather gloomy, the result of dealing with reality as opposed to the fantasy of the past 16 years (since the sub-prime bottom in March, 2009). Money Daily has been carping about valuation for the longest time. Others are beginning to chime in, especially analysts from the major brokerages, who are busy revising their forecasts for 2025. Sorry, fellas, too little, too late. People are beginning to lose faith in the almighty power of Wall Street.

Elsewhere, bitcoin dipped below $77,000, a four-month low and a distinctive repudiation of all the ecstasy over bitcoin ETFs, and the latest, the Crypto Sovereign Wealth Fund established last Thursday by a Trump Executive Order and kicked off with a ceremony at the White House Friday. It was evident to all but the cultist "hodlers" that the U.S. Treasury has no plans to be buying any bitcoin or other crypto any time soon.

As usual, gold and silver got kicked lower, but both have already rallied back to levels seen last week. Gold: $2,912; silver: $32.67.

WTI Crude oil bottomed at $65.52, but is rallying Tuesday morning by about a buck.

Futures were higher earlier, but have flattened out and turned negative, which probably means the bounce-back rally may not happen today, or at worst, will begin to take shape sometime after 10:00 or 11:00 am ET.

Bears are at the door and they appear quite hungry.

At the Close, Monday, March 10, 2025:
Dow: 41,911.71, -890.01 (-2.08%)
NASDAQ: 17,468.32, -727.90 (-4.00%)
S&P 500: 5,614.56, -155.64 (-2.70%)
NYSE Composite: 19,202.38, -370.69 (-1.89%)

WEEKEND WRAP: Gold, Silver Rebound; Bitcoin Ponzi Begins to Break Down After White House Disappoints; Stocks Suffering

Stocks suffered their worst performance of the year last week and the trauma is unlikely to abate as concerns over tariffs proposed and imposed by President Trump have rattled the investor class. Some tariffs have already been imposed, more to come April 2nd, when reciprocal tariffs have been promised.

It's not only tariffs worrying the market. Valuation is high on the list of issues affecting stock prices. Stocks were on a tear from November, 2023, to late last year and into January, when the S&P hit an all-time high.

Stocks have backed off considerably, with the NASDAQ dipping into correction (-10%) twice during the week.

The price of oil continues to slide. Gold and silver rallied.

Stocks

The week was pretty rough for equity holders. All of the major indices have fallen below their respective 50-day moving averages, except the NASDAQ, which closed the last two sessions of the week below its 200-day moving average.

While the broadly-measured NYSE Composite remains green for the year, up 2.49%, along with the Dow (+0.61%), the S&P is down 1.89% year-to-date, the NASDAQ, -5.77%. Dow Transports are down 1.80% for 2025.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average has closed below its 200-day moving average for two weeks straight (10 sessions) and is clearly into correction territory, down 12.1%, from 17754.38 late November to a closing price of 15610.42 Friday. Dow Theorists contend that the Industrials must confirm the downside move in order to indicate a change in the primary trend.

Dropping from 45,014.04 December 4th to 42,801.72 at Friday's close is a 4.91% dip, the Dow is signaling that it very well may not find a bottom soon. Intra-day drops have been closer to 42,500. Any sustained downside should be sufficient to satisfy the primary trend confirmation requirement. That's a wait-and-see proposition, though it's becoming somewhat obvious that many traders are not waiting for another shoe to drop, so to speak.

A few stragglers are still reporting earnings next week:

Monday: (before open) NetPower (NPWR), Telos (TLS), Biontech (BNTX); (after close) Vail Resorts (MTN), Oracle (ORCL)

Tuesday: (before open) Fuel Cell Energy (FCEL), Viking Cruise Lines (VIK), Ciena (CIEN), Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Kohl's (KSS); (after close) Groupon (GRPN), StitchFix (SFIX)

Wednesday: (before open) iRobot (IRBT), Ondas (ONDS); (after close) Vrown Castle (CCI), American Eagle Outfitters (AEG), Adobe (ADBE)

Thursday: (before open) Dollar General (DG); (after close) DocuSign (DOCU), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Semtech (SMTC)

Friday: (before open) Li Auto (LI).

February CPI is released Wednesday, PPI Thursday, both before the open (8:30 am EDT)

Treasury Yield Curve Rates

Date	1 Mo	1.5 mo	2 Mo	3 Mo	4 Mo	6 Mo	1 Yr
01/31/2025	4.37	N/A	4.37	4.31	4.33	4.28	4.17
02/07/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.35	4.37	4.30	4.25
02/14/2025	4.37	N/A	4.38	4.34	4.35	4.32	4.23
02/21/2025	4.36	N/A	4.38	4.32	4.34	4.30	4.15
02/28/2025	4.38	4.37	4.38	4.32	4.32	4.25	4.08
03/07/2025	4.38	4.36	4.33	4.34	4.29	4.29	4.05

Date	2 Yr	3 Yr	5 Yr	7 Yr	10 Yr	20 Yr	30 Yr
01/31/2025	4.22	4.27	4.36	4.47	4.58	4.88	4.83
02/07/2025	4.29	4.31	4.34	4.42	4.49	4.75	4.69
02/14/2025	4.26	4.26	4.33	4.41	4.47	4.75	4.69
02/21/2025	4.19	4.19	4.26	4.35	4.42	4.69	4.67
02/28/2025	3.99	3.99	4.03	4.14	4.24	4.55	4.51
03/07/2025	3.99	4.01	4.09	4.21	4.32	4.66	4.62

Rates didn't change much at the short end. Longer-dated maturities sold off, as the 10-year yield gained 0.08% and the 30-year added 0.09%. Spreads widened, with 2s-10s increasing from +25 to +33, and full spectrum out to +24 from +13. The fact that stocks and bonds both sold off during the week suggests a strong preference for cash, either in money markets or short-term bills.

Nothing to get excited about, though the market may be saying that inflation isn't as big a worry as the media and some financial analysts have been suggesting.

Spreads:

2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1/17: +34
1/24: +36
1/31: +36
2/7: +20
2/14: +21
2/21: +23
2/28: +25
3/7: +33

Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
1/24: +40
1/31: +36
2/7: +32
2/14: +32
2/21: +31
2/28: +13
3/7: +24

Oil/Gas

The fall in the price of WTI crude oil has now reached seven straight weeks on Friday closes. It's dropped from $77.37 at the New York close on January 17, to $74.60 on January 24, to $73.81 on January 31, to $71.06 on February 7, $70.56 on February 14, $70.25 on February 21, $69.95 on the 28th, and finally, to $67.05 on the New York close this Friday. Seven consecutive weeks of falling prices by a cumulative 12 percent and a -43.6% from the June 3, 2022 high of $118.87 (thanks, Joe!) constitutes a definitive signal that lower prices are here to stay.

Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump remained steady at $3.06. The price of gas nationwide should continue falling as long as crude prices continue to drop. There's a lag time of anywhere from three to six weeks, as previous deliveries at higher prices are wound down.

California remains on top, though down a another eight cents from last week, at $4.67.

Pennsylvania fell five cents, to $3.26, the Keystone State remaining the longtime price leader in the Northeast. Vermont ($3.14) has taken second place over New York, at $3.11, followed by Maine ($3.05). Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($2.98) saw small price drops. Maryland is back down to $2.92. New Jersey is at $2.95.

Illinois was down a penny, to $3.17. Ohio ($2.79) and Indiana ($2.86) were up slightly, but well below recent readings.

Mississippi ($2.58) is the lowest in the country, better than Louisiana ($2.62), Tennessee ($2.64) and Kentucky ($2.66), and Alabama ($2.68). South Carolina and Oklahoma are both at $2.69, followed by North Carolina and Arkansas at $2.72. Georgia ($2.88) and Florida ($3.07) complete the low-cost SouthEast region. Kansas ($2.79) is the lowest in the Midwest. Missouri ($2.85), Iowa ($2.95), and Nebraska ($2.98) were all higher this week.

Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in four more states than last week. At least 33 U.S. states have prices under $3.00.

The West continues to suffer the highest prices in the country. Arizona ($3.37) was down three cents. Oregon dropped a mere one cent, at $3.71, while Nevada dropped six, also down to $3.71. Washington fell three cents to $4.09, joining California in the tiny club of mainland states at $4.00 or higher. Utah ($2.98) was down, rejoining the sub-$3.00 group, but Idaho ($3.14) was up one cent.

Bitcoin

This week: $83,414.10
Last week: $94,335.26
2 weeks ago: $95,900.56
6 months ago: $59,123.20
One year ago: $63,043.77
Five years ago: $8,902.84

Bitcoin has not been over $100,00 since February 4. Last Sunday (3/2), bitcoin was boosted by nearly $10,000 on Sunday morning to over $94,000, on word of the White House "Crypto Summit" which took place Friday (3/7). During the week, the price of bitcoin came down, then back up, but, starting around 3:00 pm Friday, right after the White House disappointed all but the noblest "hodlers", the price has been heading straight down, from $90,469 to its current level just above $83,000. Talk about "buy the rumor, sell the news." This was a textbook case.

As Money Daily has expressed confidently in the past, bitcoin is a con which will eventually become worthless.

Precious Metals

Gold:Silver Ratio: 89.64; last week: 91.23

Per COMEX continuous contracts:

Gold price 2/9: $2,886.10
Gold price 2/16: $2,893.70
Gold price 2/23: $2,949.60
Gold price 3/2: $2,867.30
Gold price 3/9: $2,917.70

Silver price 2/9: $32.19
Silver price 2/16: $32.65
Silver price 2/23: $32.83
Silver price 3/2: $31.43
Silver price 3/9: $32.55

Gold and silver both rebounded nicely this week. Gold remains the store of value by which all other things "should" be measured. Silver, thanks to over 150 years of de-monetization (from the Crime of 1873 to the present) has been relegated to being a poor step-sister, though it it still considered a monetary metal in most of the world and will eventually return to a realistic ratio with gold, though possibly not in the lifetimes of anybody alive today. That's just the reality of the fractional reserve fiat money regime under which we all suffer. Still, it's been a solid investment the past three to five years and will never be worthless, which is more than can be said of stocks and crypto.

Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):

Item/Price	Low	High	Average	Median
1 oz silver coin:	36.00	49.95	40.92	39.00
1 oz silver bar:	36.75	49.00	41.67	40.26
1 oz gold coin:	2,971.55	3,152.90	3,063.04	3,052.67
1 oz gold bar:	2,939.00	3,097.90	3,026.93	3,039.98

The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was slightly lower on the week, falling to $40.46, a decline of 44 cents from the March 2nd price of $40.90 per troy ounce.

WEEKEND WRAP

Considering the speed at which President Trump has acted to right what's wrong with America and the world, expect more disruptions for at least through the midterm elections, which are still 20 months in the future (November 2026). Short, and maybe even longer term, stocks don't appear to be the place to be.

Choose wisely.

At the Close, Friday, March 7, 2025:
Dow: 42,801.72, +222.64 (+0.52%)
NASDAQ: 18,196.22, +126.96 (+0.70%)
S&P 500: 5,770.20, +31.68 (+0.55%)
NYSE Composite: 19,573.06, +66.72 (+0.34%)

For the Week:
Dow: -1039.19 (-2.37%)
NASDAQ: -651.06 (-3.45%)
S&P 500: -183.30 (-3.10%)
NYSE Composite: -455.13 (-2.27%)
Dow Transports: -376.07 (2.35%)