Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Pick a number

This market is hellish, though some will tell you that it's technically not a Bear... yet. Those people will soon be revising their estimates and advising their clientele differently. With nearly 1000-points lost on the Dow since its peak on July 19 (remember 14,000?), this is about as clear an indication that the 4 1/2 year party that was recently Wall Street is quickly turning into Skid Row.

With another 200+ point decline, not only the US equity markets, but economies worldwide are on high alert. The entire fractional-reserve fiat money banking system is about to blow sky high, so pick a number and see how close you come to calling the market bottom.

I'll venture a guess at 9380 and a date of maybe February, 2010. Crashing through various psychological barriers like 13,000, 12,000, 11,000 on the way down, there are certain to be a number of times in which the markets look to have turned a corner, but they will be, sadly, false fronts. Only after disposing of the 10,000 level will psyches be truly mushy enough for a stable rebound.

Dow 13,028.92 -207.61; NASDAQ 2,499.12 -43.12; S&P 500 1,426.54 -26.38; NYSE Composite 9,254.27 -174.59

A fall to 9680 would be a 33% pullback from the 14,000 high, and that may be somewhat optimistic. Off the October 2002 low of 7286.27, such a decline would be a retracement of 69%. Fibonacci adherents take note.

Today's selling was the result of a complete lack of repo lending by the Fed and - who knew? - more credit-related issues, especially that of Sentinel Management Group, which oversees about $1.6 billion in assets, who told clients that it may block redemptions from the fund to avoid forced liquidation. That and more concerns about over the exposure of brokerages Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers to mortgage-backed issues set the sellers afire.

Additionally, 17 Canadian trusts have sought help from banks to repay loans that are due.

Could this be the beginning of a dark chapter in global finance? It certainly appears so. Central bankers have been nervous for weeks and the credit and liquidity woes once thought to be contained are beginning to spread to foreign investments and money market funds. What's worse is that the re-pricing of roughly $1.3 trillion in so-called 2/28 ARMs has yet to occur. The bulk of these loans - $1.7 trillion - were made in 2005 and 2006, so we're are just seeing the proverbial tip of the financial iceberg.

2/28 ARMs are mortgage loans in which only interest is paid during the first two years. Upon repricing, interest and principal is calculated over the remaining 28 years of the loan. Monthly mortgage payments typically skyrocket and homeowners default. California, Ohio and the tri-state region of New York, Connecticut and New Jersey have been the hardest hit to date, with more than 500,000 defaults recorded during the first six months of 2007.

This is a snowball rolling downhill, as defaults escalate, homes will be lost, many billions of dollars worth of notes will become worthless paper and consumer spending, by sheer weight of numbers, will gradually falter.

Already, Wal-Mart, the nation's largest retailer, has revised estimates lower for the remainder of 2007. Subsequent revisions are to be expected from other retail concerns.

Once spending is curtailed, job cuts will follow in all manner of industries. Non-essential positions will go first, such as clerical and support staff, but the cuts could cripple many going concerns. On top of all this, many states have initiated mandatory minimum wage requirements above national standards. At just this point in time, many businesses will choose not to hire rather than commit to labor costs they feel are too high.

One positive note is that inflation will become a thing of the past. Businesses will cut prices in an effort to remain afloat. Many will not survive.

This is, of course, the nightmare scenario similar to that of the Great Depression, which was a worldwide phenomenon. Ruined lives, fortunes lost, displacement of people and separation of families were the outcomes. The parallels are there: overpriced stocks, easy credit, lack of regulatory control.

Today's internals were some of the worst to date. Declining issues beat advancers by a 9-2 margin. New lows swamped new highs, 614-54.

Of the 30 Dow stocks, only one, ExxonMobil, traded higher, and that was only by a mere 21 cents.

Oil for September delivery on the NYMerc rose 76 cents to $72.38. Some people are simply out of touch with reality.

Oddly enough, the precious metals have yet to respond to the ongoing calamity. Gold lost $1.20 to close at $679.70; silver lost 11 cents to $12.75. These are absolutely shrieking buys, though there's a belief that the markets are being contained by big money, notably the world's central banks.

Once the lid is lifted off these commodities, prices are sure to soar 15-25% in a very short span.

Tomorrow's another day... another day closer to a date with financial destiny.

Monday, August 13, 2007

It's worse than you think...

Today's headline was inspired by some weekend and Monday morning reading.

The US equity markets, battered and bruised by fears of an underlying credit catastrophe, are in worse shape than most average investors - and even some experts - would like to believe.

After last week's rescue by the Federal Reserve, which injected $38 billion into the markets, word came to our shores that on Monday, the Fed was injecting another $2 billion on top of $5 billion shoved in by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank's "loan" of $65.3 billion. Over the last week of trading the ECB has added more than $200 billion. Since Thursday, the Fed has added $62 billion in liquidity. That's a lot of liquidity, yet it was only enough to lift the markets temporarily on Monday.

Dow 13,236.53 -3.01; NASDAQ 2,542.24 -2.65; S&P 500 1,452.92 -0.72; NYSE Composite 9,428.86 -6.18

We're in dire straits and headed for a crash of magnificent proportions. The BofJ and ECB are helping out because they have a vested interest in keeping the US economy afloat. Many of their wealthiest citizens are heavily invested in US stocks. Further, a crash of the US economy - which is, after all, a near certainty, since we've gone from being the world's largest creditor nation to the world's greatest debtor nation in a matter of just 50 years - would have a ripple effect so pronounced that if would take down most other markets with it.

So, the world economy is on the brink, and we're getting billions in financial aid from around the world. Anybody - and I mean ANYBODY - who is even considering investing in stocks at this juncture ought to be institutionalized. This is the most dangerous market situation since the 1929 crash, and nothing short of an economic miracle is going to prevent a serious, damaging, long-term, worldwide meltdown.

The multiple cash infusions by world banking interests are desperate gambits. By becoming the buyers of last resort, central banks are literally taking the place of real, live investors, those same people who are exiting the market at a speedy pace. All the cash infusions do is shore up stocks for the near term, allowing larger brokerages and mutual funds to exit as quietly as possible, with minor losses rather than huge ones.

In the end - and mind you, I'm no expert on global financial transactions - the central banks will be stuck with stocks that were purchased at significant premiums. Weeks and months from now, these "repo" purchases will look as foolhardy as a horse racing plunger's last bet on an aging and feeble nag.

The underlying problem is that the money being spent to buy these stocks is generally that of governments, or in other words, our tax dollars at work. Since we don't get to vote on how our money is spent, this exercise in futility is just another in a long series of bad spending examples by derelict national governments, which are really nothing more than massive criminal conspiracies, disigned to keep the lower and middle clasess in a condition of near slavery and relative poverty.

When the central banks get around to selling these stocks at 20, 30, 40% losses or better, the citizenry will get the bill in the form of massive tax increases, depleted services and general unaccountability by those supposedly in charge. It's a swindle of the highest, most despicable order.

We should be used to it.
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It's been going on for years. The final outcome will be massive disruptions to financial systems world-wide, a lower standard of living for nearly everyone, bankruptcies at an all time high, pension fund defaults, and misery all around.

We can thank our leaders and the heads of state-run banks for what they will have wrought, most notably, Sir Alan Greenspan (he was knighted by Queen Elizabeth II in 2002), whose sloppy handling of the economy and penchant for loose monetary policies produced the series of bubbles - first the dotcom debacle, then commodities and finally the housing blow up - that led to this eventuality.

The rich will surely get richer by comparison. Many are already heavily invested in gold and other, more stable currencies than the greenback. The little guy, 20% of whom will find themselves out of work within the next two years, will be forced into a world of lowered expectations and general despair.

Lovely.

The market internals were suitably mixed. with declining issues beating out advancers barely. There were 346 new lows, but a paltry 73 new highs.

Oil was up marginally, while gold and silver were lower by negligible amounts. With so much uncertainty, inertia is beginning to set in everywhere. Volume on the equity markets was normal, but well below levels of last week.

Friday, August 10, 2007

The Fix Is In

As investors - and guys who wear pinstripe suits but really haven't a clue - nervously watched the Dow Jones Industrials plummet by another 200 points this morning, the intrepid manipulators from the Federal Reserve Bank (working, no doubt, in concert with the Plunge Protection Team) pumped two injections of "liquidity" into the markets in the morning and added a smaller boost in the afternoon.

In other words, the Fed bought stocks from brokers who, as part of the so-called "repo" deal, agreed to deposit the funds in Federally-insured member banks.
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Thus, a mammoth crash and thud was averted.

When the fed buys stocks, they aren't just fishing nor fiddling. Today's double dose was a total of $34 billion, designed to keep order in the face of an imminent sell-off. Late in the session, with the markets still down smartly, the Fed added another $3 billion.

Apparently, it worked, because the markets failed to melt down as many feared they would. However, these measures are little more than band-aids in a market that is hemorrhaging on multiple fronts.

Due to the blow-up of sub-prime mortgage loans, note holders find themselves stuck with much worthless paper. The spill-over into derivative, insurance, M&A and other credit markets has been stoking fears of financial calamity.

Without a doubt, this is a big mess that's not going to end soon or resolve in a pretty way. Billions of dollars are going to be lost, credit markets will become frighteningly tight and even the Fed's money won't be enough to secure liquidity and order in the equity markets. What's especially frightening about the situation is that the Fed was forced to take such extraordinary measures to shore up markets.

The "repo" swaps are not new. They've been used during other stressful periods, such as in the winter after 9/11, but their effect is marginal. The announcement that the Fed is taking the action is actually much more of a salve on the nerves of traders than the actual money making trades.

Dow 13,239.54 -31.14; NASDAQ 2,544.89 -11.60; S&P 500 1,453.64 +0.55; NYSE Composite 9,435.04 -14.27

The downside of such action, however, is that the Fed eventually has to balance its own books, and buying up stocks in a sliding market - catching the proverbial falling knife - is poor investment strategy, to say the least. When the Fed unloads these stocks, often at a loss, it creates a glut on the market and costs the Fed money. Of course, the Fed can just print up more, and they do, making all those dollars in your pockets worth a little less.

Again, it's nothing more than a stop-gap measure and far from a solution. The real solution would be to allow the market to take its own course, and let the losers lose and the winners win. For all the talk of "free markets" by Fed governors and other high government officials, they certainly act like they have little to no faith in what they preach.

The crash is upon us. With the Fed's help, it will be worse than it has to be. Tighten your belts, we're headed for recession-land.

Market internals allow for a much better understanding of what really happened on Wall Street this Friday. Declining issues rolled over advancers by a 9-5 margin. New lows swamped new highs, 736-82. Even with the Fed's helping hand, there were plenty of casualties on the day.

Oil continued to slip, down 12 cents to $71.47, but still far from it's bottom, which is just a matter of time. Gold perked up $8.80 to $681.60; silver rose 17 cents to $12.87. These are still screaming buys and now would be a good time to stock up.

The coming weeks and months hold still more intrigue and downside. The bulk of the sub-prime loans which are subject to repricing and therefore, default, have yet to do so. October through next March will bear witness to an avalanche of mortgage defaults and a share of bank and financial concern failings.

Cash is king for now, especially if it's in Euros or gold.

Thursday, August 9, 2007

CRASH

Let's call a spade a spade.

This market is all but wiped out, as is the US economy. We'll be lucky if we're not invaded by a foreign power.

We've had a president in office for the past 6 1/2 years - and for the most part, a compliant Congress of his party - who's done everything in his power to dismantle the social fabric and the constitution and spend and borrow every last dime of our nation's wealth.

The policies of George W. Bush and the lack of regulation and oversight of the administration and congress have put the nation on the precipice of capitulation. Our financial system is about to implode under the weight of bad loans made right under the eyes of our elected and non-elected officials. The former and current Secretaries of the Treasury and Chairmen of the Fed, Alan Greenspan and Bernanke, are the main delinquents. The current holders of those offices should be immediately relieved of their duties and the president should be impeached. They have failed us miserably and probably engaged in criminal activity. At least in the President, Vice President and Attorney General's case, we are sure that they did.

Those who do not agree should take account. Our bridges and roads are crumbling, we spend billions a month in a war effort that has produced no tangible result except death and destruction, and now our financial institutions are under siege.

If that's not enough, maybe you'd prefer to wait until some of the banks fail or we go to war with Iran or the president declares martial law. Maybe then you'll wake up from your stupidity-induced stupor and see what liberals and progressives have been screaming about.

Or maybe you're content watching and believing in whatever lies they tell you on FOX News. In that case, go ahead and stick your head in the sand. The real intellectual forces of this country have no use for you and your kind.

Dow 13,270.68 -387.18; NASDAQ 2,556.49 -56.49; S&P 500 1,453.09 -44.40; NYSE Composite 9,449.31 -296.89

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 380 points today. That's one hefty loss. The other indices followed and it's very likely that the losses would have been larger had not the PPT (Plunge Protection Team, aka the President's Working Group on Financial Markets) been stepping in to stem losses.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bush is heading out of town for a 3 week vacation, but he made sure to mention, before he left, that taxes on corporations should be lowered. After all, Bush made the tax system safe for millionaires and billionaires, why not multi-national corporations who have little to no allegiance to the United States of America?

More ill-advised policy. Just what we need.

Market internals were not as bad as one would expect. Declining issues outpaced advancers by a 15-6 margin. There were 197 new highs, but 606 new lows.

Oil futures closed down 56 cents, to $71.59. Gold and silver were absolutely shattered, with gold off $13.50 and silver down 47 cents. A buying opportunity.

By the way, if you think today was bad, it was only the 2nd worst day of the year, and there's more downside ahead - a lot more.

The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ are all still positive for the year, but one gets the felling that it's a temporary condition. The Dow closed 2006 at 12,463. We're getting closer.

Wednesday, August 8, 2007

More Manipulation in Stocks

The US equity markets are beginning to take on theater of the absurd qualities, and Wednesday's trading patterns were possibly even more ridiculous than any of the preceding week.

Looking solely at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, here's how the day went. Stocks were higher right out of the gate and continued in an orderly climb until peaking, up 190 points, just prior to 2:30 pm. Then, without warning and without any notable news event, the index retreated to break even at just before 3:30.

A drop of 190 points in an hour? Well, we've seen gains of that magnitude in the same time frame, so why not?

Alarmed, the government meddlers from the PPT (Plunge Protection Team, aka, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets) quickly swung into action, sending the index soaring to a close 153 points higher. Sweet. Brilliant. Bravo. Bulls**t.

This market is now being so openly gamed that the players aren't even trying to disguise their moves. The whole operation is designed to keep the public in the dark and avoid panic selling in the face of a serious credit squeeze and the imminent collapse of certain financial institutions. What we are not seeing behind the scenes - and probably will be covered up neatly in SEC filings (yes, they will lie), are billions of dollars being lost, wasted, fondled and otherwise misused in derivative markets, forex trades, futures and other odd-ball, shadowy "investment" vehicles. We may never know exactly what is occurring.

Dow 13,657.86 +153.56; NASDAQ 2,612.98 +51.38; S&P 500 1,497.49 +20.78; NYSE Composite 9,746.20 +140.13

What we do know, beyond any doubt, is that the markets are being pulled, kicking and screaming, to the upside by agents of the government, acting "in our best interest" on our (formerly) free, open market exchange.

Investors should be at the height of outrage, but this kind of thing has happened before and will happen again. Most casual observers will never even look at a one day chart of the Dow, the NASDAQ or any other index for that matter. Most don't even look at charts of the stocks they own, whether they be in mutual funds or owned individually.

The general public is being taken as fools and rightfully so. They are.

It's barely worth commenting on anything in this rigged market, since fundamentals, reports and sound investment strategies no longer matter. The markets are going to continue to rise until the next election, Democrats and honest investors be dammed. All is well. Look away now.

The spectacular gains of the past three days (465 points on the Dow) are all the more disturbing in the face of the slumping housing market, though the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced today that median home prices would fall less sharply than previously expected (1.2% instead of 1.4%). Tell that to sellers in Ventura, California or Vero Beach, Florida. The NAR is interested in keeping prices higher, so their credibility should also be called into questioned.

Advancers trounced decliners for a change, by a 9-2 margin, but new lows were again well above new highs, 636-358. The "players" made a lot of money going long today, though they still were unable to lift all of the sinking ships.

Speaking of rigging, oil lost 27 cents in futures trading, closing at $72.15. Gold was up $4.00 and silver added 8 cents to 13.17. There's still time to buy the metals!