Stocks just pushed higher through resistance on Monday as traders searched for clues that either the economy was improving or the Fed would change some wording in Tuesday's FOMC rate policy meeting.
Rates are expected to remain unchanged, at ZERO, which, if one were to look at it objectively, would consider it a glorious time to take on additional risk. After all, borrowing money without any interest - or marginal at best - is accommodative to speculation, just the kind of easy credit policy which has created all the other prior bubbles.
From certain perspectives, it makes perfect sense to invest in US equities. On the side of caution are those who believe the entire Fed operation is nothing more than a grand illusion, destined to fail. In the meantime, investors simply cannot refrain from buying stocks with cheap money. Buy, buy, buy was the message delivered today, loud and clear.
The major indices have rallied through their 200-day moving average and are testing the high end of the recent range. Whether this current rally has enough impetus to surpass the highs of Spring will be known in a number of days or weeks, though there seems to be nothing standing in the way of new highs heading into the elections, despite what cynics might be assuming about the political nature of the markets.
Dow 10,753.62, +145.77 (1.37%)
NASDAQ 2,355.83, +40.22 (1.74%)
S&P 500 1,142.71, +17.12 (1.52%)
NYSE Composite 7,266.02, +111.37 (1.56%)
Advancing issues buried decliners, 4693-1152. New highs soared past new lows, 531-45. Even volume was a little improved from the sluggish levels of the past six weeks.
NASDAQ Volume 2,027,424,375
NYSE Volume 4,064,069,750
Commodities participated in the overall euphoria. Oil gained $1.20, to $74.86. Gold closed up $3.40, to another new record, at $1,279.00. Silver slid just a penny, to $20.78. Today's rally - and the general rally of the past two weeks would be more believable if commodity prices were more contained. The gains in commodities are only proving that while stocks may be favored in the short run, there's no scarcity of skepticism among investors, who are buying the precious metals and oil as protection... against exactly what, nobody seems certain. But, whether it's inflation or deflation, commodities and bonds have been rallying right alongside the stock market.
All asset classes usually do not gain or fall at the same moments in time, but, with the massive amount of liquidity being suppled constantly by the Federal Reserve, anything is possible, including re-flation, inflation and even hyper-inflation. The Fed is swimming in some very dangerous water, indeed.
Monday, September 20, 2010
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Best spots for fishing in South East PA
Post contributed by Buford Downs
If you love fishing as much as I do then you always want to find a great spot to catch some fish. You also probably don't have tons of money to go rent a boat or travel long distances from your home to find an ideal fishing spot. It took me a long time before I found a spot locally that I could count on to always deliver a nice fish or two without costing me and arm and a leg.
The best spot that I have found is Valley Creek over near the Downingtown area. This is a very fun spot for bluegill and brown trout. I have a number of friends who also love this particular area and we will often spend an entire day there. I will usually leave at the crack of dawn after I set my house alarm system so that I don't have to worry. That way my friends and I can just relax and fish until late into the evening and share some beers and simple conversation. To me, there are few things in the world that help to relieve the stress of a hard week at work like having that casual time with my friends.
If you love fishing as much as I do then you always want to find a great spot to catch some fish. You also probably don't have tons of money to go rent a boat or travel long distances from your home to find an ideal fishing spot. It took me a long time before I found a spot locally that I could count on to always deliver a nice fish or two without costing me and arm and a leg.
The best spot that I have found is Valley Creek over near the Downingtown area. This is a very fun spot for bluegill and brown trout. I have a number of friends who also love this particular area and we will often spend an entire day there. I will usually leave at the crack of dawn after I set my house alarm system so that I don't have to worry. That way my friends and I can just relax and fish until late into the evening and share some beers and simple conversation. To me, there are few things in the world that help to relieve the stress of a hard week at work like having that casual time with my friends.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Quotes for a Friday Afternoon
Before getting to the important part of this posting, a quick recap of the day on Wall Street is the usual requisite, so...
Here's what happened:
Dow 10,607.85. +13.02 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,315.61, +12.36 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,125.59, +0.93 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 7,154.64, -14.84 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,174,708,250
NYSE Volume 4,437,062,000
Not much, even for a quad-witching options day, which is supposed to be "volatile." US markets are, if anything, operating on borrowed money and borrowed time. The money's been borrowed from the Fed and the time is just a matter of when somebody with a large enough stake says, "good-bye." It's a game of chicken and nobody wants to be the last one in the room.
Note that the NYSE, the broadest measure of equities, was the only one down, and also the only index usually not quoted by the major news services.
Advancing issues beat decliners, 3321-2395, but it's mostly just churning. New highs maintained their daily edge over new lows, 413-58, another meaningless metric, due to the large, unannounced number of issues de-listed in the past six to nine months. Volume was higher than normal, but still not of any degree anyone would get excited about. Most of the additional trading was due to the aforementioned quadruple-witching in options.
There was probably more action at Belmont Park than on the floor of the NYSE, and it was certainly more fun to watch.
Oil was hammered down another 91 cents lower, to $73.66, but remains stuck in a trading range, emblematic of the global economic condition. Gold closed up $3.70, at $1,275.60, another all-time high. Silver gathered only a nickel higher, to $20.79.
Then there was word on the housing market, from a number of economists, including the widely-quoted Mark Zandi of Moody's, who's been proven wrong so many times that most people have stopped counting.
Zandi believes housing prices will drop another 5% by 2013, and then says, "After reaching bottom, prices will gain at the historic annual pace of 3 percent..." He's probably wrong on the magnitude by a measure of three or four times. Residential real estate likely has 15-20% more to decline. As to his predicted annual growth pace of 3%, it's already well-established that home prices normally rise by about one per cent, not triple that.
Somebody ought to hand Zandi a golden parachute and shove him off a skyscraper so he can stop deluding himself that he's making sense. After all, he does work for one of the rating agencies which said all that toxic, sub-prime, re-packaged, securitized mortgage garbage was AAA-rated. The guy ought to be in jail rather than on CNBC.
The upshot is that the banks have such a monster of a problem on their hands that they and the courts cannot handle it in a reasonably timely manner. The absolute implosion of the US housing market has left a crater in the economy the size of Rush Limbaugh's ego, and that's enormous. The basic paradigm for buying a house these days is to offer 30% below the asking price, and see how badly the owners - either a bank or a homeowner or a combination of both - want out of it.
Then try and get a mortgage. A million more laughs.
The glut of homes - unoccupied, unrented, in need of repair, under-water financially - is mammoth and everywhere. Count on a minimum of three and probably more like five more years of pain, price declines and associated nonsense about finding "the bottom," which will only be reached when the banks realize that it's not worth their time or expense to pursue further exposure and foreclosures and they become the party which "walks away." When the banks no longer want the properties, no longer feel there's any gain in bleeding consumers dry with fees and interest, and the property taxes, maintenance and insurance exceed what they can hope to recover on unsold inventory, there will be a bottom, and it's going to be one heck of a lot lower and a heck of a lot further out than most people anticipate.
Too many houses at prices too many people can't afford. Simple math.
Following are the promised quotes. Have a lovely weekend.
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
-- Thomas Jefferson, (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 - 1826)
"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."
-- Mayer Amschel Rothschild
"Income tax is nothing but wage slavery. If you have payroll deductions, you are a slave. Only way to fix it is for everyone to quit, or, as in Europe, the whole nation goes on strike. It won't happen here. Americans are too stupid and too frightened by their own government. I am not. I could care less. Let them come and take my house and my belongings. I will start over, stronger. I love this country, but I hate the people who run it."
-- Ed.
Here's what happened:
Dow 10,607.85. +13.02 (0.12%)
NASDAQ 2,315.61, +12.36 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,125.59, +0.93 (0.08%)
NYSE Composite 7,154.64, -14.84 (0.21%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,174,708,250
NYSE Volume 4,437,062,000
Not much, even for a quad-witching options day, which is supposed to be "volatile." US markets are, if anything, operating on borrowed money and borrowed time. The money's been borrowed from the Fed and the time is just a matter of when somebody with a large enough stake says, "good-bye." It's a game of chicken and nobody wants to be the last one in the room.
Note that the NYSE, the broadest measure of equities, was the only one down, and also the only index usually not quoted by the major news services.
Advancing issues beat decliners, 3321-2395, but it's mostly just churning. New highs maintained their daily edge over new lows, 413-58, another meaningless metric, due to the large, unannounced number of issues de-listed in the past six to nine months. Volume was higher than normal, but still not of any degree anyone would get excited about. Most of the additional trading was due to the aforementioned quadruple-witching in options.
There was probably more action at Belmont Park than on the floor of the NYSE, and it was certainly more fun to watch.
Oil was hammered down another 91 cents lower, to $73.66, but remains stuck in a trading range, emblematic of the global economic condition. Gold closed up $3.70, at $1,275.60, another all-time high. Silver gathered only a nickel higher, to $20.79.
Then there was word on the housing market, from a number of economists, including the widely-quoted Mark Zandi of Moody's, who's been proven wrong so many times that most people have stopped counting.
Zandi believes housing prices will drop another 5% by 2013, and then says, "After reaching bottom, prices will gain at the historic annual pace of 3 percent..." He's probably wrong on the magnitude by a measure of three or four times. Residential real estate likely has 15-20% more to decline. As to his predicted annual growth pace of 3%, it's already well-established that home prices normally rise by about one per cent, not triple that.
Somebody ought to hand Zandi a golden parachute and shove him off a skyscraper so he can stop deluding himself that he's making sense. After all, he does work for one of the rating agencies which said all that toxic, sub-prime, re-packaged, securitized mortgage garbage was AAA-rated. The guy ought to be in jail rather than on CNBC.
The upshot is that the banks have such a monster of a problem on their hands that they and the courts cannot handle it in a reasonably timely manner. The absolute implosion of the US housing market has left a crater in the economy the size of Rush Limbaugh's ego, and that's enormous. The basic paradigm for buying a house these days is to offer 30% below the asking price, and see how badly the owners - either a bank or a homeowner or a combination of both - want out of it.
Then try and get a mortgage. A million more laughs.
The glut of homes - unoccupied, unrented, in need of repair, under-water financially - is mammoth and everywhere. Count on a minimum of three and probably more like five more years of pain, price declines and associated nonsense about finding "the bottom," which will only be reached when the banks realize that it's not worth their time or expense to pursue further exposure and foreclosures and they become the party which "walks away." When the banks no longer want the properties, no longer feel there's any gain in bleeding consumers dry with fees and interest, and the property taxes, maintenance and insurance exceed what they can hope to recover on unsold inventory, there will be a bottom, and it's going to be one heck of a lot lower and a heck of a lot further out than most people anticipate.
Too many houses at prices too many people can't afford. Simple math.
Following are the promised quotes. Have a lovely weekend.
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."
-- Thomas Jefferson, (Attributed)
3rd president of US (1743 - 1826)
"Permit me to issue and control the money of a nation, and I care not who makes its laws."
-- Mayer Amschel Rothschild
"Income tax is nothing but wage slavery. If you have payroll deductions, you are a slave. Only way to fix it is for everyone to quit, or, as in Europe, the whole nation goes on strike. It won't happen here. Americans are too stupid and too frightened by their own government. I am not. I could care less. Let them come and take my house and my belongings. I will start over, stronger. I love this country, but I hate the people who run it."
-- Ed.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Wheels Coming Off Global Economy
Today may have been a watershed day for the demise of the global economy. There were any number of troubling events - most of which were completely overlooked by the computers making trades on US markets - that signal a major event could decouple governments from their economies, people from their money, banks from credits, and on and on...
Take, for instance, the activity in the Forex markets, where the Bank of Japan decided to intervene for the first time in six years, to keep the Yen from appreciating. The intervention actually took place on Wednesday, but it's effects will be far-reaching and continual. All currencies are seeking levels at which they can find comfort in trade - cheap imports, value on exports - but, not everybody can have it their way, obviously. These kinds of things lead to crises, political, economic and sometimes military.
But that's probably not going to get too many people worked up. Maybe the thought of foreclosures on the rise might suffice. The banks are apparently trying to manage the foreclosure process, in other words, slowing it down so that they don't create a glut of homes on the market and cause prices to fall even further.
It's a gamble that isn't likely to work out, however. Prices do what they're supposed to do. Mismanaged properties sell for less. Homes which were overpriced to begin with will find their correct level. Despite what the bankers holding most of the mortgages (Bank of America) believe, Americans are smarter than they think, and with an economy suffering from 20% real unemployment, keeping prices suspended artificially is probably more wishful thinking than prudent planning.
The real estate market has gone through this before, as in the past two years the flood of foreclosures was partially stemmed by various government programs and tax bribes, modifications and work-outs. Home prices fell precipitously, nevertheless. So, as with anything having to do with banks these days, we offer a hearty, "good luck with that!"
How about thinking ahead a bit, like how much you'll be taking in every month when you're retired? The news there isn't very rosy either. Here's a report that offers the sobering conclusion that at the end of 2008 (hey, that was almost two years ago!), public pension funds were experiencing a shortfall of anywhere between $1 Trillion and $4.4 TRILLION! That's a lot of money that people are unlikely to be receiving in their "golden years."
But, that's just the start of it. Of the more than 1700 publicly-traded companies which operate pension plans for employees almost all of them are seriously underfunded. "The assets of corporate pensions relative to their deficits, known as the funded ratio, fell to 70.1% in August..." says a report by the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index.
And that's without even looking at Social Security or Medicare, both systems hopelessly bankrupt and already bleeding red ink. When baby-boomers begin retiring in droves in the next two to five years, the systems will be beyond repair and likely need major modifications, such as no COLA, raised retirement ages and lower benefits. (Ed. Note: Being 56 myself, this doesn't make me necessarily happy, though my choice to not pay into any kind of pension plan and avoid SS tax at all costs now seems a prudent maneuver.)
OK, had enough? How about chewing on an arcane document of the American Monetary Institute from 2004, delivered by Director Stephen Zarlenga to the British House of Lords, which outlines, among other things, how government issuing money (not the Federal Reserve, a private bank), without the backing of gold or silver, has been the most fruitful.
This shoots major holes in the argument that "gold is money," and a true store of value and all the other clap-trap that have made gold the most speculative, over-priced commodity on the planet. As I and some non-gold-infused friends like to say, "you can't eat a gold bar and you can't buy a candy bar with it", or, "try buying a loaf of bread with a Kruggerand. Ypu've have better luck buying the whole bakery."
So much for the bad news. There was some good news, somewhere, but nobody seemed able to locate it. Nonetheless, the computers trading US stocks (You do know that 70% of all trades are executed without human involvement, don't you?) managed to issue forth another split decision, with the Dow and NASDAQ up, but the S&P and NYSE down, that, in itself, troubling. market divergence is almost always a telling sign that a correction isn't far off. Making matters more complex and compelling, trading volumes were down to absurdly low levels once again, running at a rate 30% below last year.
Dow 10,594.83, +22.10 (0.21%)
NASDAQ 2,303.25, +1.93 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,124.66, -0.41 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,169.48, -10.31 (0.14%)
In opposition to the benign headline numbers, declining issues pounded advancers, 3419-2260. The number of new highs to new lows remained static and statistically insignificant, at 308-48.
NASDAQ Volume 1,703,297,625
NYSE Volume 3,354,712,000
Crude oil futures were slammed down $1.45, to $74.57, but gold made another all-time high, at $1,271.90. up $5.20. Silver kept climbing in stride, up 20 cents, to $20.74.
Now, if there's anything we should have learned from first, the tech bubble of the late 90s and second, the housing bubble of the 2000s, that when the object of the bubble is advertised heavily on TV - remember Pets.com? How about 125% home equiy loans? - it's usually safe to say the asset is overpriced and due for a fall. It happened with tech stocks. It happened with houses, so it's probably going to happen with gold (and probably silver) because of the rampant number of ads telling us to buy gold, cash in our gold and get gold or cash in some manner. It's a mania, pure and simple. Gold and silver have increased in value by 400% or more over the past decade. When will it end? Nobody really knows, but buying at these nosebleed levels is the stuff of fools. Real estate looks much better, especially if you're assigned to the basic tenet of all investing, "buy low, sell high."
Take, for instance, the activity in the Forex markets, where the Bank of Japan decided to intervene for the first time in six years, to keep the Yen from appreciating. The intervention actually took place on Wednesday, but it's effects will be far-reaching and continual. All currencies are seeking levels at which they can find comfort in trade - cheap imports, value on exports - but, not everybody can have it their way, obviously. These kinds of things lead to crises, political, economic and sometimes military.
But that's probably not going to get too many people worked up. Maybe the thought of foreclosures on the rise might suffice. The banks are apparently trying to manage the foreclosure process, in other words, slowing it down so that they don't create a glut of homes on the market and cause prices to fall even further.
It's a gamble that isn't likely to work out, however. Prices do what they're supposed to do. Mismanaged properties sell for less. Homes which were overpriced to begin with will find their correct level. Despite what the bankers holding most of the mortgages (Bank of America) believe, Americans are smarter than they think, and with an economy suffering from 20% real unemployment, keeping prices suspended artificially is probably more wishful thinking than prudent planning.
The real estate market has gone through this before, as in the past two years the flood of foreclosures was partially stemmed by various government programs and tax bribes, modifications and work-outs. Home prices fell precipitously, nevertheless. So, as with anything having to do with banks these days, we offer a hearty, "good luck with that!"
How about thinking ahead a bit, like how much you'll be taking in every month when you're retired? The news there isn't very rosy either. Here's a report that offers the sobering conclusion that at the end of 2008 (hey, that was almost two years ago!), public pension funds were experiencing a shortfall of anywhere between $1 Trillion and $4.4 TRILLION! That's a lot of money that people are unlikely to be receiving in their "golden years."
But, that's just the start of it. Of the more than 1700 publicly-traded companies which operate pension plans for employees almost all of them are seriously underfunded. "The assets of corporate pensions relative to their deficits, known as the funded ratio, fell to 70.1% in August..." says a report by the Milliman 100 Pension Funding Index.
And that's without even looking at Social Security or Medicare, both systems hopelessly bankrupt and already bleeding red ink. When baby-boomers begin retiring in droves in the next two to five years, the systems will be beyond repair and likely need major modifications, such as no COLA, raised retirement ages and lower benefits. (Ed. Note: Being 56 myself, this doesn't make me necessarily happy, though my choice to not pay into any kind of pension plan and avoid SS tax at all costs now seems a prudent maneuver.)
OK, had enough? How about chewing on an arcane document of the American Monetary Institute from 2004, delivered by Director Stephen Zarlenga to the British House of Lords, which outlines, among other things, how government issuing money (not the Federal Reserve, a private bank), without the backing of gold or silver, has been the most fruitful.
This shoots major holes in the argument that "gold is money," and a true store of value and all the other clap-trap that have made gold the most speculative, over-priced commodity on the planet. As I and some non-gold-infused friends like to say, "you can't eat a gold bar and you can't buy a candy bar with it", or, "try buying a loaf of bread with a Kruggerand. Ypu've have better luck buying the whole bakery."
So much for the bad news. There was some good news, somewhere, but nobody seemed able to locate it. Nonetheless, the computers trading US stocks (You do know that 70% of all trades are executed without human involvement, don't you?) managed to issue forth another split decision, with the Dow and NASDAQ up, but the S&P and NYSE down, that, in itself, troubling. market divergence is almost always a telling sign that a correction isn't far off. Making matters more complex and compelling, trading volumes were down to absurdly low levels once again, running at a rate 30% below last year.
Dow 10,594.83, +22.10 (0.21%)
NASDAQ 2,303.25, +1.93 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,124.66, -0.41 (0.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,169.48, -10.31 (0.14%)
In opposition to the benign headline numbers, declining issues pounded advancers, 3419-2260. The number of new highs to new lows remained static and statistically insignificant, at 308-48.
NASDAQ Volume 1,703,297,625
NYSE Volume 3,354,712,000
Crude oil futures were slammed down $1.45, to $74.57, but gold made another all-time high, at $1,271.90. up $5.20. Silver kept climbing in stride, up 20 cents, to $20.74.
Now, if there's anything we should have learned from first, the tech bubble of the late 90s and second, the housing bubble of the 2000s, that when the object of the bubble is advertised heavily on TV - remember Pets.com? How about 125% home equiy loans? - it's usually safe to say the asset is overpriced and due for a fall. It happened with tech stocks. It happened with houses, so it's probably going to happen with gold (and probably silver) because of the rampant number of ads telling us to buy gold, cash in our gold and get gold or cash in some manner. It's a mania, pure and simple. Gold and silver have increased in value by 400% or more over the past decade. When will it end? Nobody really knows, but buying at these nosebleed levels is the stuff of fools. Real estate looks much better, especially if you're assigned to the basic tenet of all investing, "buy low, sell high."
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
QE Working Marvelously for Wall Street
Hello, broken record department, how can I help you?
More quantitative easing, please.
Not a problem. Thank you.
Dow 10,572.73, +46.24 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 2,301.32, +11.55 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,125.07, +3.97 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 7,179.79, +17.71 (0.25%)
Advancing issues held sway over decliners, 3132-2554. New highs towered over new lows, 309-41. This should be regarded as entirely cosmetic. Even bad companies are good. Volume was higher than it's been in some time.
NASDAQ Volume 2,085,158,125
NYSE Volume 3,617,492,750
News flash: the world is afloat in oil due to slack demand. The current futures contracts sold off 78 cents today, to $76.02. Gold is beginning to feel pricey, down $3.00 today, to $1,266.70. Silver gained 14 cents, to $20.54, a bargain by comparison, though closing in on a 2 1/2 year high.
I played golf and didn't bother to keep score. It was fabulous. Playing alongside one of my very best friends surely didn't diminish the pleasures of the afternoon. Played 18 holes. Even parred one.
It's all a matter of perspective, expectation and liquidity, after all. Right now, liquidity seems to be the position most favored. Buyers markets are springing forth everywhere. When will the money come without strings?
More quantitative easing, please.
Not a problem. Thank you.
Dow 10,572.73, +46.24 (0.44%)
NASDAQ 2,301.32, +11.55 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,125.07, +3.97 (0.35%)
NYSE Composite 7,179.79, +17.71 (0.25%)
Advancing issues held sway over decliners, 3132-2554. New highs towered over new lows, 309-41. This should be regarded as entirely cosmetic. Even bad companies are good. Volume was higher than it's been in some time.
NASDAQ Volume 2,085,158,125
NYSE Volume 3,617,492,750
News flash: the world is afloat in oil due to slack demand. The current futures contracts sold off 78 cents today, to $76.02. Gold is beginning to feel pricey, down $3.00 today, to $1,266.70. Silver gained 14 cents, to $20.54, a bargain by comparison, though closing in on a 2 1/2 year high.
I played golf and didn't bother to keep score. It was fabulous. Playing alongside one of my very best friends surely didn't diminish the pleasures of the afternoon. Played 18 holes. Even parred one.
It's all a matter of perspective, expectation and liquidity, after all. Right now, liquidity seems to be the position most favored. Buyers markets are springing forth everywhere. When will the money come without strings?
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