Thursday, October 20, 2011

Citi, Bank of America in Massive Fail Mode; Euro Leaders Diddle Over EFSF

The European mess got so badly confused it crashed this writer's browser and about half the post was washed into the ether. In any case, conflicting reports from the Eurozone make this weekend's EFSF-fest look something like this: Finance ministers of the various Euro nations will meet on Friday; German Chencellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy will meet on Saturday; the rest is somewhat hazy due to conflicting reports, but the whole she-band of the 2 trillion Euro bailout fund (which may include 5:1 leverage) should be wrapped up and delivered to the panting, waiting world on Sunday, or Wednesday, maybe.

That is the kind of music the Europeans are playing above the din of Wall Street's stressed markets, making them zig-zag with even more amplitude than under the normal rigging of the HFT computers. Stocks were down, then up, then sideways, then finally finished mostly flat.

What is on one hand frustrating and on the other wildly amusing is that all the nations of Europe don't have 2 trillion Euros to rub together, much less 10 trillion once the fund goes the leverage route. Get ready for massive currency devaluation and market disruptions as the Eurozone embarks on an experiment in quantitative easing (money printing) that makes Ben Bernanke's Federal Reserve look like amateurs.

While all the noise and fury from Europe was making trading something resembling a kindergarten face-painting class, a couple of items concerning a couple of US banks the media forgot to mention appeared on the web.

Apparently aiming for the honor of headline of the month, the New York Post reports, Citi fined $285M for selling dog$#!t paper.

It appears that the SEC stopped watching porn for a few minutes to slap a fine on Citigroup for selling mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to their clients they knew were dog$#!t and, a la Goldman Sachs, bet against them in the derivatives market. The fine amounts to a small fraction of the beating investors continue to take and a spec of dust compared to what Citi and the other TBTF banks did to the US and global financial and housing markets.

Good for those few non-porn-addicted officials at the SEC for finally waking up, albeit three years late, and doing somewhat of the right thing, though, as usual, Citi admits no wrongdoing and no executives have been fined, jailed or slaughtered for public delight... yet. That's why we have the Occupy Wall Street movement. They may not have defined demands, but, in general they hate the mega-banks and the people who run them.

Then there's Bank of America, which has been shuckin' and jivin' so much they seem to be shadowboxing with themselves in a mirror inside a kaleidoscope. Their recent maladies are summed up in an article by the erudite by barely comprehensible Chris Whalen of Risk Analytics, in an article entitled, Is Bank of America preparing for a Chapter 11? published by Reuters UK, because apparently the average reader in America probably won't understand a word of it, though we are pleased to give everyone a try.

Basically, BofA is getting rough press over their recent decision to charge debit card users a fee for the service and now, they're making it harder to avoid the $5/month fee.

Additionally, the $8.5 billion settlement the bank had worked out with various MBS trusts, including Pimco and the NY Fed, has unraveled and is being sent to a federal court. Boo-hoo.

And, completing the trifecta, Bank of America has moved Merrill Lynch derivatives into it's banking unit, putting over $1 trillion of deposits at imminent risk.

Nice.

Dow 11,541.78, +37.16 (0.32%)
NASDAQ 2,598.62, -5.42 (0.21%)
S&P 500 1,215.39, +5.51 (0.46%)
NYSE Composite 7,273.90, +33.64 (0.46%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,095,450,875
NYSE Volume 4,870,291,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3404-2984
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 26-71 (finally, something that makes sense)
WTI crude oil: 85.30, -0.81
Gold: 1,612.90, -34.10
Silver: 30.28, -1.00

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

No Rest for the Wicked (or Corrupt, or Criminal); Beige Book Sinks Stocks

No news out of Europe to goose or grouse the markets? No problem, the Fed's October Beige Book provided yet another dim view of current financial, business and economic conditions across the United States.

As one might expect, the reporting in the 12 Federal Reserve districts was mixed, with business conditions showing slight improvement in most, but housing and employment remaining weak across most. Here is a good summary of each of the districts, from Dow Jones Newswires.

That was about all that mattered. CPI showed a jump of 0.3% in consumer prices, while the housing market showed a mixed picture. The Mortgage Bankers Association saw a 14.9% decline in mortgage applications in the most recent week (ended October 14) for new purchases and refinancing combined. Housing starts shot up to 658K in September after reporting only 572K in August, the figures based on an annualized model.

However, building permits dropped from 625K in August to 594K in September, suggesting a slight contraction in new home construction.

A huge drawdown in crude inventories last week of 4.729M barrels caused oil prices to dive, citing weaker than normal demand as the cause.

In a best-case scenario, most economists believe that the US will not suffer another recession, though growth remains flat to slightly improved. That is why the banking and debt crisis in Europe moves the markets. If Europe cannot solve its problems, there would be enough of a contagion to effect the US economy negatively.

The NASDAQ took the biggest hit on the day, following Apple's (AAPL) earnings miss, reported after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Dow 11,504.62, -72.43 (0.63%)
NASDAQ 2,604.04, -53.39 (2.01%)
S&P 500 1,209.88, -15.50 (1.26%)
NYSE Composite 7,240.26, -101.47 (1.38%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,013,483,875.00
NYSE Volume 4,869,994,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1752-4763
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 82-43
WTI crude oil: 86.11, -2.23
Gold: 1,647.00, -5.80
Silver: 31.28, -0.55

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Market Pops on Bogus ESFS Euro Report; Apple Misses, Tanks

You've got to love this market.

Any little statement or rumor that European Union leaders might throw significant money at their pan-continental debt crisis sends stocks soaring into the stratosphere, and today was one for the record books.

An unusually quiet day, stocks had regained a foothold after Monday's sudden reversal. But, shortly after 3:00 pm EDT, the UK's Guardian reported that France and Germany had agreed to boost the Euro bailout fund - the ESFS - to EURO 2 Trillion, a significant rise, and one that might just help kick the debt can down the road a few months, or even years.

Shortly after the story broke, however, Dow Jones reported that the 2 Trillion Euro figure was actually "still under debate," so, who really knows? At least the market machines and mechanics got what they wanted, a nice 100-point spike in the Dow in about ten minutes time and an S&P close over 1224. Mission accomplished. Now, move along, folks, nothing to see here.

In a day (week, month, year) full of bogus reports, before the open, Bank of America (BAC) reported 3Q earnings of 57 cents per share, but, because of the new math, which includes such exotic flavors as fair value adjustments on structured liabilities and trading Debit Valuation Adjustments (DVA), according to our friends at Zero Hedge, who usually have the best and most-believable dirt, BofA actually had earnings of 0.00, otherwise known as ZERO, Zilch, Nada, Nothing.

Of course, when CNBC and the rest of the supine financial media report, bare-faced, that the nation's largest bank by deposits more than doubled the analyst estimates (0.21) for the quarter, it was off to the races, with somebody shocking BAC shares up 10% by day's end, a stunning 0.61 gain, to the imposing figure of 6.62. While it's technically a 10% gain, it's still rather silly, considering the accounting nonsense being roundly applauded by the criminal bankster elite, and hardly any comfort to those who bought BAC when it was 7, or 8 or even 12. Make no mistake, we've entered the Twilight Zone of financial accounting and there's no turning back.

Along those lines, the Giant Squid otherwise known as Goldman Sachs (GS), also reported before the bell, but it's results were almost believable, showing a loss of 84 cents per share, with losses spread across the company's proprietary trading division, to the tune of $2.5 billion. Ouch. The market's response to the trending data of a company heading decidedly south: a gain of 5.25 (5%) to 102.25 and the financials led all other sectors in the faux rally du jour.

Also before the bell, PPI was reported to be up 0.8% in September on expectations of a rise of only 0.2%, which just happened to be how much the core PPI was up for the month. Somebody obviously missed the memo from the Fed that inflation was transitory, or something along those lines. Inflation in the US is running at an annual rate well over 6%, something the mainstream media hopes you don't notice.

One company which may be adversely affected by the loss of its CEO - the truly brilliant Steve Jobs - is Apple, which announced today after the bell that the company had an outstanding quarter as usual, but, uh, oh, they missed the estimates of 7.39 per share by a bit, reporting earnings for the quarter of 7.05 per share and also came up about a billion dollars short on the revenue end.

As of this writing, Apple shares were trading at 394.13, -28.11 (-6.66%). Not a very pretty picture there.

So, to recap, Goldman Sachs reports a massive loss, Bank of America releases what amounts to a fraudulent earnings report, inflation is about ready for lift-off into hyper-inflation and the market gets a jolly from a questionable report on the size of the European bailout fund. All good fun, no?

With Apple's miss in the after-hours and another couple of big banks - Morgan Stanley (MS) and PNC Financial Services (PNC) - due to report tomorrow, somebody might want to take a closer look at the number of companies that have missed or merely met estimates this earnings season, and maybe add in those who just plain fudged the numbers. But, not to worry, Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) are also reporting tomorrow and should provide sufficient caloric excess to fuel another rally in the markets.

Wow! You cannot make this stuff up.

Dow 11,577.05, +180.05 (1.58%)
NASDAQ 2,657.43, +42.51 (1.63%)
S&P 500 1,225.38, +24.52 (2.04%)
NYSE Composite 7,341.73, +153.07 (2.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,988,896,750
NYSE Volume 5,669,232,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5211
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 52-65 (Really? No kidding. extremely bearish)
WTI crude oil: 88.34, +1.96
Gold: 1,652.80, -23.80
Silver: 31.83, +0.01









Monday, October 17, 2011

G20, Merkel, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, NY ManuafacturingSink Stocks

Well, those last two weeks were certainly fun if you were long equities, so get ready for two weeks of pain, as that seems to be the general pattern of our over-hyped, over-controlled and manipulated crony capitalism markets.

Stocks have run up and down in a range on the S&P 500 from a low of 1099 to a high of 1224 since August 4th, after stocks took a tumble from their late-July highs. Volatility has been unusually high during the period, as uncertainty over US debt, European solvency and the continued threat of global recession weight on investors and speculators.

Starting on Saturday with the ludicrous demands of the G20 central bankers and finance ministers that Europe fix its debt problems by October 23, news flow has once again turned decidedly negative. Upon hearing the dictates from the G20 that leaders attending the European Union summit, "decisively address the current challenges through a comprehensive plan," Germany's chancellor, Angela Merkel, quickly tamped down expectations through spokesman Steffan Seibert, stating that "the dreams that are emerging again, that on Monday everything will be resolved and everything will be over will again not be fulfilled."

Those were the news items facing stocks in New York as the opening bell approached, but, prior to the regular casino-esque ring-a-ling at 9:30 am EDT, a couple of banks released third quarter earnings that sent futures lower. First up was Citigroup (C), which announced earnings of $1.23 per share on analyst expectations of 88 cents. At first glance, the quarter seemed positive, but accounting gimmicks provided most of the (mostly) phantom revenue.

The results included a pretax gain of $1.9 billion, or 39 cents per share after taxes, due to the bank's widening credit spreads during the quarter. When a bank's debt weakens relative to U.S. Treasuries, it can record an accounting gain because it could theoretically profit from buying back its own debt. Along with the idea that the bank was making money on its own worsening credit risk, Citi also lowered loan-loss reserves, further fluffing the quarterly profit picture.

Initially, investors bought into the grand scheme, sending the stock higher in early trading, but by the end of the day, the ruse had been found out and Citigroup stock sold off by 0.47, ending the session close to its lows, at 27.93.

Wells Fargo (WFC) came out with its earnings right after Citigroup, and though the numbers were more straightforward, the overall picture was dim. The bank said it earned 72 cents per share in the quarter, a penny below consensus estimates. Even though it was an improvement of 21%, revenue was down and the company lowered loan-loss reserved by $800 million, boosting the numbers. Traders sold off the company stock to the tune of a nearly 8.5% loss, ending the day down 2.25, at 24.42.

As if the bad reports from two of the nation's largest banks wasn't enough, New York state's empire manufacturing index continued to scrape along the bottom, posting -8.48 for October after a reading of -8.82 in September. Readings on national capacity utilization and industrial production returned basically flat.

Stocks sold off right at the open and continued a slow, painful decline throughout the remainder of the session. If the whole idea of the rally from the past two weeks was to sell off into options expiration on Friday, the downbeat news arrived right on time.

Even IBM, which reported after the close, could not garner any support. Big Blue was off almost 4% in after-hours trading, following their reported narrow beats on earnings and revenue.

Two more big banks report tomorrow and their 3rd quarters ought to be real doozies. Goldman sachs is expected to post a loss for the quarter, while Bank of America can float out whatever numbers it chooses. Nobody will believe any of them.

Dow 11,397.00 247.49 (2.13%)
NASDAQ 2,614.92 52.93 (1.98%)
S&P 500 1,200.86 23.72 (1.94%)
NYSE Compos 7,188.66 161.80 (2.20%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,711,161,000.00
NYSE Volume 4,203,815,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1322-5177
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 38-47
WTI crude oil: 86.32, -0.48
Gold: 1,676.60, -6.40
Silver: 31.82, -0.35

Payment Processing for Small Business

In order to keep one's business functioning smoothly, with so many different ways consumers spend and receive money, a variety of payment processing services and products are key to prospering in a rapidly-changing environment.

The primary ways people pay are cash and credit/debit cards, so a if a business has retail space it must also have robust POS systems capable of handing all manner of transactions smoothly and seamlessly, and, hopefully, all though one provider. Choice and flexibility are what consumers seek in their payment options.

That means merchants should rely on not many, but one single company to handle all credit/debit card transactions - online, by phone or in-house - with credit card processing services that won't confuse your customers or employees and can provide detailed, instantaneous processing and also offer the merchant an interface for reviewing and downloading transaction report data.

Along with credit-debit card POS systems and processing services, any business handling cash might want to investigate the availability of having ATM machines at retail locations, again providing the customer with choice, while at the same time helping to increase add-on sales. The ability to access additional cash while still inside the merchant location spurs impulse buying and helps bring in extra foot traffic with potential cash in hand.

Today's business challenges are various and complex, but there's no need for business owners or managers to make their lives more difficult by choosing more than one provider for payment services and products. While it's anathema to business to have only one main customer, when it comes to payment processes, having one source for everything from credit to cash to analytics is not only desirable, but ultimately, profitable.