Since, according to myths and Mayan calendars, the world is supposed to end tomorrow, this will be a short post, because most people have better things to do to prepare for annihilation than read about stocks, bonds and commodities.
Apparently, Wall Street traders aren't buying the hype - but, they still believe the Republicans and Democrats in Washington will work out a deal before January 1, 2013, because they keep buying stock.
The joke will be on them if the world ends tomorrow, because all that trading they've done will not have done them any good. The upside for the world ending on December 21 is that anyone who hasn't done their Christmas shopping until now will have saved a bundle. Also, the end of the world kind of puts the kibosh on the Zombie Apocalypse. No world, no zombies... or maybe this would be the kickoff party.
The biggest event of today was John Boehner pushing ahead with "Plan B" which would keep the Bush tax cuts intact for anyone earning less than $1 million a year. Traders apparently were happy with that prospect, as a little rally ensued after Boehner spoke, never mind that Harry Reid said the House bill was already a dead issue in the Senate.
If there's no tomorrow, then this would be good-bye, but, just in case those crafty Mayans were wrong, we'll be back tomorrow. Darn, everybody will have to go to work on Friday.
Dow 13,311.72, +59.75 (0.45%)
NASDAQ 3,050.39, +6.03 (0.20%)
S&P 500 1,443.69, +7.88 (0.55%)
NYSE Composite 8,516.43, +52.61 (0.62%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,685,494,500.00
NYSE Volume 3,656,370,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3574-1921
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 250-32
WTI crude oil: 90.13, +0.15
Gold: 1,645.90, -21.80
Silver: 29.68, -1.438
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Tip-toeing Along the Edge of the Fiscal Cliff (a melodrama)
This fiscal cliff nonsense is getting a little thick.
Just yesterday, it appeared that the president and John Boehner were coming together on a deal. Today, Boehner steps up to a mic in the Capitol and blurts out something about the president needing to get serious, which is exactly what he said two weeks ago.
Money Daily continues to cling to its creepy, cynical prediction that there will be no deal, never was going to be one, because the parties had already agreed to raise taxes on everybody (why not?) and blame each other.
At this point, all signals should be indicating that there will be no deal prior to the official deadline of midnight on December 31, and beginning with the first tick of the clock in 2013, we begin to slowly dip over the cliff.
The effect of going over the cliff will not be a sudden, recognizable event, but rather a series of widely distributed government outreaches directed straight at the wallets of American citizens. It's a horrible policy decision, but, seriously, could we have expected less from this particular gang of clowns.
Regular wage earners will be hardest hit, as both regular income tax rates will increase, but the government will put pack the 1/3 of the trust fund deductions (SSI) that they so generously didn't deduct from everyone's paychecks in 2012, which was part of last year.
This inconsistency in tax policy, government bickering and annual changes in rates, deductions, spending cuts and increases, et. al., is not anything any stable nation would entertain, the USA having proven to be anything other than stable the past four or five or twelve years as concerns fiscal and monetary policy, though the FED has been trying (ZIRP and QE1, 2, 3, infinity, 4, and likely, beyond... yessh, good luck).
Congress will be departing for the holidays en masse tomorrow and Friday, so who really among us still believes anybody in the Capitol is serious about making a deal, finding common ground (remember that quaint concept of "common good?") and relieving the American people from so much uncertainty, doubt and outright confusion.
These are questionable times with a questionable cast of characters, something along the line of the soap operas, but without doctors who return from the dead or schmaltzy, scheming middle-aged marionettes living in some alternate universe, even though Washington seems to be spinning in an orbit all its own.
So, if there's no deal by tomorrow, because the individual members in the congress have to read whatever bill is presented, no? And then they have to vote on it, pass it or turn it down. If its passed, the President's signature is a quick finish and on to more misadventures.
Whether the congress and the president agree to anything before New Year's Eve becomes New Year's Day is probably immaterial at this point. If they miss any deadlines, they'll just claim the law to be retroactive and everything will be fine. But a couple of things are virtual slam dunks. Whatever they come up with it will not be enough to revive the economy, which, after all, is the point of this exercise. Also, somebody's - and possibly everybody's - taxes will be going up and some government programs will not be funded or appropriated for as generously as before.
The Dow was off nearly 100 points today, which isn't much, in light of recent moves higher. A deal on the fiscal cliff has been priced into stocks. Today's action was a little bit of recognition that all may not be well in deal-land.
Denial. It's what's for New Year.
Dow 13,251.97, -98.99 (0.74%)
NASDAQ 3,044.36, -10.17 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,435.81, -10.98 (0.76%)
NYSE Composite 8,463.82, -35.53 (0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,938,485,625
NYSE Volume 3,838,595,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2752-2748
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 278-39
WTI crude oil: 89.51, +1.58
Gold: 1,667.70, -3.00
Silver: 31.12, -0.553
Just yesterday, it appeared that the president and John Boehner were coming together on a deal. Today, Boehner steps up to a mic in the Capitol and blurts out something about the president needing to get serious, which is exactly what he said two weeks ago.
Money Daily continues to cling to its creepy, cynical prediction that there will be no deal, never was going to be one, because the parties had already agreed to raise taxes on everybody (why not?) and blame each other.
At this point, all signals should be indicating that there will be no deal prior to the official deadline of midnight on December 31, and beginning with the first tick of the clock in 2013, we begin to slowly dip over the cliff.
The effect of going over the cliff will not be a sudden, recognizable event, but rather a series of widely distributed government outreaches directed straight at the wallets of American citizens. It's a horrible policy decision, but, seriously, could we have expected less from this particular gang of clowns.
Regular wage earners will be hardest hit, as both regular income tax rates will increase, but the government will put pack the 1/3 of the trust fund deductions (SSI) that they so generously didn't deduct from everyone's paychecks in 2012, which was part of last year.
This inconsistency in tax policy, government bickering and annual changes in rates, deductions, spending cuts and increases, et. al., is not anything any stable nation would entertain, the USA having proven to be anything other than stable the past four or five or twelve years as concerns fiscal and monetary policy, though the FED has been trying (ZIRP and QE1, 2, 3, infinity, 4, and likely, beyond... yessh, good luck).
Congress will be departing for the holidays en masse tomorrow and Friday, so who really among us still believes anybody in the Capitol is serious about making a deal, finding common ground (remember that quaint concept of "common good?") and relieving the American people from so much uncertainty, doubt and outright confusion.
These are questionable times with a questionable cast of characters, something along the line of the soap operas, but without doctors who return from the dead or schmaltzy, scheming middle-aged marionettes living in some alternate universe, even though Washington seems to be spinning in an orbit all its own.
So, if there's no deal by tomorrow, because the individual members in the congress have to read whatever bill is presented, no? And then they have to vote on it, pass it or turn it down. If its passed, the President's signature is a quick finish and on to more misadventures.
Whether the congress and the president agree to anything before New Year's Eve becomes New Year's Day is probably immaterial at this point. If they miss any deadlines, they'll just claim the law to be retroactive and everything will be fine. But a couple of things are virtual slam dunks. Whatever they come up with it will not be enough to revive the economy, which, after all, is the point of this exercise. Also, somebody's - and possibly everybody's - taxes will be going up and some government programs will not be funded or appropriated for as generously as before.
The Dow was off nearly 100 points today, which isn't much, in light of recent moves higher. A deal on the fiscal cliff has been priced into stocks. Today's action was a little bit of recognition that all may not be well in deal-land.
Denial. It's what's for New Year.
Dow 13,251.97, -98.99 (0.74%)
NASDAQ 3,044.36, -10.17 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,435.81, -10.98 (0.76%)
NYSE Composite 8,463.82, -35.53 (0.42%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,938,485,625
NYSE Volume 3,838,595,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2752-2748
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 278-39
WTI crude oil: 89.51, +1.58
Gold: 1,667.70, -3.00
Silver: 31.12, -0.553
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Boehner, Obama Closer on Fiscal Cliff Negotiations, Prompting Exultant Wall Street Rally
In a piece of somewhat shocking news, considering the participants are both career politicians of the highest grade, it appeared today that President Obama and House Speaker, John Boehner, were getting much closer to reaching a compromise to end the fears of going over the fiscal cliff on January 1, 2013.
Essentially, Boehner has agreed to some tax cuts for wealthier individuals while Obama is making headway in spending cuts, bringing the two sides closer to an agreement that would, at the very least, provide a level of certainty about tax and spending policies for the near future.
While the roughly $1 trillion in tax increases and another $1 trillion in spending cuts is phased over 10 years, it represents some easing of the tense gridlock between the two parties that have plagued Washington for years.
Compromise being the key to negotiation on these issues, it appears both sides are ready to give a little as the December 31 deadline approaches.
Cynics might say that the politicians are closing in on a deal only because their party members don't want to stay in Washington or have to return to the capitol between Christmas and New Year to hammer out details of a deal.
Most indications are that the President and the Speaker are within a few hundred billion dollars of each other's targets and a bill could be brought to the House and Senate by Thursday, allowing time for votes, a few minor changes and all escaping back to their districts (and families) in plenty of time for the holidays.
What was for certain was Wall Street's enthusiastic response, sending stocks sharply higher on strong volume. The rally - despite fears stemming from the fiscal debate - over the past four-and-a-half weeks has been nothing short of remarkable with the Dow Jones Industrials advancing more than 800 points since the closing low on November 15 (15,542.38) and the S&P tacking on 94 points over the same time span.
Whether or not the politicians arrive at a compromise deal, shorting this market - coincident with the real potential for a blow-off Santa Claus rally - before year's end would not be a wise move right about now.
The Wall Street crowd can best be compared to college kids on Spring Break, where just about anything is ample cause for a party.
Dow 13,350.96, +115.57(0.87%)
NASDAQ 3,054.53, +43.93(1.46%)
S&P 500 1,446.79, +16.43(1.15%)
NYSE Composite 8,499.35, +92.34(1.10%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,017,737,875
NYSE Volume 4,116,356,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4078-1520
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 284-41
WTI crude oil: 87.93, +0.73
Gold: 1,670.70, -27.50
Silver: 31.67, -0.611
Essentially, Boehner has agreed to some tax cuts for wealthier individuals while Obama is making headway in spending cuts, bringing the two sides closer to an agreement that would, at the very least, provide a level of certainty about tax and spending policies for the near future.
While the roughly $1 trillion in tax increases and another $1 trillion in spending cuts is phased over 10 years, it represents some easing of the tense gridlock between the two parties that have plagued Washington for years.
Compromise being the key to negotiation on these issues, it appears both sides are ready to give a little as the December 31 deadline approaches.
Cynics might say that the politicians are closing in on a deal only because their party members don't want to stay in Washington or have to return to the capitol between Christmas and New Year to hammer out details of a deal.
Most indications are that the President and the Speaker are within a few hundred billion dollars of each other's targets and a bill could be brought to the House and Senate by Thursday, allowing time for votes, a few minor changes and all escaping back to their districts (and families) in plenty of time for the holidays.
What was for certain was Wall Street's enthusiastic response, sending stocks sharply higher on strong volume. The rally - despite fears stemming from the fiscal debate - over the past four-and-a-half weeks has been nothing short of remarkable with the Dow Jones Industrials advancing more than 800 points since the closing low on November 15 (15,542.38) and the S&P tacking on 94 points over the same time span.
Whether or not the politicians arrive at a compromise deal, shorting this market - coincident with the real potential for a blow-off Santa Claus rally - before year's end would not be a wise move right about now.
The Wall Street crowd can best be compared to college kids on Spring Break, where just about anything is ample cause for a party.
Dow 13,350.96, +115.57(0.87%)
NASDAQ 3,054.53, +43.93(1.46%)
S&P 500 1,446.79, +16.43(1.15%)
NYSE Composite 8,499.35, +92.34(1.10%)
NASDAQ Volume 2,017,737,875
NYSE Volume 4,116,356,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4078-1520
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 284-41
WTI crude oil: 87.93, +0.73
Gold: 1,670.70, -27.50
Silver: 31.67, -0.611
Monday, December 17, 2012
Magic Market Melt-up
Cliff? What cliff?
G
.O
..O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...A
...L!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, that one.
Empire Manufacturing (Dec.) Actual: -8.1; Forecast: 2.0.
Who needs reasons?
Dow 13,235.39, +100.38(0.76%)
NASDAQ 3,010.60, +39.27(1.32%)
S&P 500 1,430.36, +16.78(1.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,407.02, +73.29(0.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,997,750.00
NYSE Volume 3,415,913,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3776-1782
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 132-61
WTI crude oil: 87.20, +0.47
Gold: 1,698.20, +1.20
Silver: 32.28, -0.019
G
.O
..O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...O
...A
...L!!!!!!!!!!
Oh, that one.
Empire Manufacturing (Dec.) Actual: -8.1; Forecast: 2.0.
Who needs reasons?
Dow 13,235.39, +100.38(0.76%)
NASDAQ 3,010.60, +39.27(1.32%)
S&P 500 1,430.36, +16.78(1.19%)
NYSE Composite 8,407.02, +73.29(0.88%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,873,997,750.00
NYSE Volume 3,415,913,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3776-1782
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 132-61
WTI crude oil: 87.20, +0.47
Gold: 1,698.20, +1.20
Silver: 32.28, -0.019
Friday, December 14, 2012
Up, Down? How About Sideways Equilibrium?
A relatively favorable set of numbers weere released today as Industrial Production for November rose at the robust rate of 1.1% after falling 0.7% in October (revised from -0.4) and Capacity Utilization shot up to a healthy 78.4% (October 77.7%), but what may have spooked markets was the fall in CPI of 0.3%, a deflationary indicator, which is the bogey man that central bankers and governments worldwide like awake at night fearing.
Deflation implies stagnation and decline, anathema for the "growth" economies, though in nature, it's a natural part of the cycle. And that is part - though not all - of the reason that economies (especially ones built on a fiat foundation) are all built to fail. They are unnatural creations and they eventually cannot compete with natural cycles, physics and math.
So, stocks fell today, despite some good news. On the other hand, the "lawmakers" (an obtuse term presently, as the congress-critter and the president haven't done much in the way of actual writing of legislation for about a year and a half) in Washington aren't actually there at the moment, many having already headed home to their respective districts, the regular house session actually having ended yesterday, though it is scheduled to resume on December 19 (five-day weekends... must be nice). Consequently, there was no business concerning the ongoing "fiscal cliff" negotiations.
Stocks have reached a level resembling a sort of equilibrium (just look at the A-D line or new highs-new lows), which is a nice way of saying that it's a bad time to be either a bull or a bear, because nothing's moving, though one might expect some fireworks as the year draws to a close and it becomes more and more apparent that whatever fix is applied to the nation's fiscal woes - if any - it will be a patchwork, quick-fix and probably insufficient.
Nothing could happen, though, with two straight losing sessions, the direction of the market could have subtly changed.
The markets should react, but they don't have to. What happens over the next two weeks is anybody's guess. There are just nine full trading days until year's end. The exchanges are closed on the 25th and the 24th is a half-session, closing at 1:00 pm ET.
Something's got to give, or maybe not. After all, we've been muddling through for four years and most of the sleep-walking sheeple haven't a clue what's going on and the people in charge don't seem to care, and that's not a new phenomenon.
Well, it's Friday, and it's Happy Hour somewhere.
Free houses (and $billion a month from the Fed) for everyone!
Dow 13,135.01, -35.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,971.33, -20.83 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,413.58, -5.87 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,333.74, -4.58 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,388,500
NYSE Volume 3,177,329,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2627-2840
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-64
WTI crude oil: 86.73, +0.84
Gold: 1,697.00, +0.20
Silver: 32.30, -0.056
Deflation implies stagnation and decline, anathema for the "growth" economies, though in nature, it's a natural part of the cycle. And that is part - though not all - of the reason that economies (especially ones built on a fiat foundation) are all built to fail. They are unnatural creations and they eventually cannot compete with natural cycles, physics and math.
So, stocks fell today, despite some good news. On the other hand, the "lawmakers" (an obtuse term presently, as the congress-critter and the president haven't done much in the way of actual writing of legislation for about a year and a half) in Washington aren't actually there at the moment, many having already headed home to their respective districts, the regular house session actually having ended yesterday, though it is scheduled to resume on December 19 (five-day weekends... must be nice). Consequently, there was no business concerning the ongoing "fiscal cliff" negotiations.
Stocks have reached a level resembling a sort of equilibrium (just look at the A-D line or new highs-new lows), which is a nice way of saying that it's a bad time to be either a bull or a bear, because nothing's moving, though one might expect some fireworks as the year draws to a close and it becomes more and more apparent that whatever fix is applied to the nation's fiscal woes - if any - it will be a patchwork, quick-fix and probably insufficient.
Nothing could happen, though, with two straight losing sessions, the direction of the market could have subtly changed.
The markets should react, but they don't have to. What happens over the next two weeks is anybody's guess. There are just nine full trading days until year's end. The exchanges are closed on the 25th and the 24th is a half-session, closing at 1:00 pm ET.
Something's got to give, or maybe not. After all, we've been muddling through for four years and most of the sleep-walking sheeple haven't a clue what's going on and the people in charge don't seem to care, and that's not a new phenomenon.
Well, it's Friday, and it's Happy Hour somewhere.
Free houses (and $billion a month from the Fed) for everyone!
Dow 13,135.01, -35.71 (0.27%)
NASDAQ 2,971.33, -20.83 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,413.58, -5.87 (0.41%)
NYSE Composite 8,333.74, -4.58 (0.05%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,806,388,500
NYSE Volume 3,177,329,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2627-2840
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 88-64
WTI crude oil: 86.73, +0.84
Gold: 1,697.00, +0.20
Silver: 32.30, -0.056
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