And that somewhere is closer to reality.
No time now, full recap on Friday as the carnage commences.
Dow 15,112.19, -225.47 (1.47%)
NASDAQ 3,606.12, -63.16 (1.72%)
S&P 500 1,661.32, -24.07 (1.43%)
NYSE Composite 9,489.29, -104.21 (1.09%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,699,330,750
NYSE Volume 3,885,446,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1235-5423
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 57-453 (WOWOWOWOW!!!)
WTI crude oil: 107.33, +0.48 (really?)
Gold: 1,360.90, +27.50 (Good!)
Silver: 22.94, +1.148 (Really Good!)
Thursday, August 15, 2013
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Fed's Bullard Fails to Halt Market Decline; Fed Credibility Nil; Correction, Potential Crash in Motion
At last!
After weeks of churning, uneventful trading, Wall Street delivered a most interesting session on Wednesday.
Instead of the usual down in the morning, up in the afternoon routine that's been de rigueur of late, this was a dip that virtually nobody was buying.
Stocks began the session quietly, but soon fell to their lows of the day, shortly before the close of European markets. Money that had heretofore been jumping from European equities into US stocks did not manage to materialize, as they have over the past few weeks.
Instead, stocks languished in negative territory, with the Dow down between 60 and 90 points most of the midday. Another bump lower between 1:00 and 2:00 pm EDT left the Dow at its lows of the day, the S&P and NASDAQ following it down, though on a lower percentage basis.
At 3:15 pm, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, one of the more effeminate and dovish Fed members, laid out his pre-arranged meme to calm markets in an unofficial speech to a Rotary club in Paducah, Kentucky, saying that he Fed needed more data in the second half before embarking on any kind of bond purchase tapering and that the Fed should hold press conferences after every FOMC meeting, in order to facilitate a more open, quick response to markets.
Initially, stocks moved upward on his comments, but quickly fell back, signaling that traders and markets have become weary of the differentiating tone of the Fed, one day favoring tapering, the next day softening their stance. The market response to Bullard's comments was clearly a sign that fundamental market analysis was overtaking the Fed's manipulation by word of mouth and that the Fed was clearly stuck in a box from which there was no salvageable escape.
Truth is, the economy is not improving to any noticeable degree, and even a partial winding down or "tapering" of QE would cause a selloff in stocks and likely another round of interest rate hikes devoid of any influence from the Federal Reserve. Nearly disarmed and out of ammunition, the Fed is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can declare the economy improving and crash the market (because it isn't) or hold tight to their insane strategy of pumping $85 billion a month in bond purchases for a longer time period, a strategy that has caused distortions and dislocations of magnificent proportions.
Traders, usually quick-thinking and thick-skinned, have found no solace in Fed utterings of late, and are taking action on their own, mostly on the side of selling, to the utter dismay of the proponents of central planning and controlled economic reality.
Stocks suffered fairly severely, though still are floating on a sea of liquidity supplied by the ever-present Fed, a condition which - whether it changes or not - seems to have run its course. Valuations are such that further gains need a serious catalyst in the form or fundamentally strong data, which has yet to materialize. Thus, booking profits off the outsize gains from the first half seems to be the prudent strategy prior to the next FOMC meeting in September, and there's little the Fed can do to stem the waves of selling pressure now appearing in all sectors.
A slew of fiscal and geopolitical risks also conspire against the Federal Reserve and the stock market, making the condition ripe for a serious, sustained correction. The cyclical bull, inspired off the first round of QE and ZIRP in March 2009, is now 54 months old, and getting a bit weary.
Only fools would rush in to this market, but as is well known, Wall Street and investment types are replete with foolish folks, so a quick pop prior to a reversal would not be a surprise, though the odds for a solid correction of 5-10% are rising quickly.
Though losses were not large, the Hinderburg Omen strategy remains the most powerful. The advance-decline line was humbled on today's session, the losing streak has all indices down for the month and new lows overwhelmed new highs (as shown below) for the first time in two months. Gold and silver made substantial gains both during NYMEX and electronic trading, with silver the shining out-performer of the day.
All of this sets up for a bearish tone tomorrow and into next week, with key data releases on Thursday, including the closely-watched weekly unemployment claims.
Cisco (CSCO) reported after the bell, beating earnings per share by a penny with revenues roughly in line with estimates. Before the opening bell tomorrow, McDonald's reports with expectations of 1.25 pr share and revenue of 118.25 for the second quarter. Same store comps will be closely monitored as those fell in the previous quarter from a year ago.
Dow 15,337.66, -113.35 (0.73%)
NASDAQ 3,669.27, -15.17 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,685.39, -8.77 (0.52%)
NYSE Composite 9,593.34, -37.23 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,546,362,000
NYSE Volume 3,126,848,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2451-4038
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 217-272
WTI crude oil: 106.85, +0.02
Gold: 1,333.40, +12.90
Silver: 21.79, +0.444
After weeks of churning, uneventful trading, Wall Street delivered a most interesting session on Wednesday.
Instead of the usual down in the morning, up in the afternoon routine that's been de rigueur of late, this was a dip that virtually nobody was buying.
Stocks began the session quietly, but soon fell to their lows of the day, shortly before the close of European markets. Money that had heretofore been jumping from European equities into US stocks did not manage to materialize, as they have over the past few weeks.
Instead, stocks languished in negative territory, with the Dow down between 60 and 90 points most of the midday. Another bump lower between 1:00 and 2:00 pm EDT left the Dow at its lows of the day, the S&P and NASDAQ following it down, though on a lower percentage basis.
At 3:15 pm, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, one of the more effeminate and dovish Fed members, laid out his pre-arranged meme to calm markets in an unofficial speech to a Rotary club in Paducah, Kentucky, saying that he Fed needed more data in the second half before embarking on any kind of bond purchase tapering and that the Fed should hold press conferences after every FOMC meeting, in order to facilitate a more open, quick response to markets.
Initially, stocks moved upward on his comments, but quickly fell back, signaling that traders and markets have become weary of the differentiating tone of the Fed, one day favoring tapering, the next day softening their stance. The market response to Bullard's comments was clearly a sign that fundamental market analysis was overtaking the Fed's manipulation by word of mouth and that the Fed was clearly stuck in a box from which there was no salvageable escape.
Truth is, the economy is not improving to any noticeable degree, and even a partial winding down or "tapering" of QE would cause a selloff in stocks and likely another round of interest rate hikes devoid of any influence from the Federal Reserve. Nearly disarmed and out of ammunition, the Fed is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can declare the economy improving and crash the market (because it isn't) or hold tight to their insane strategy of pumping $85 billion a month in bond purchases for a longer time period, a strategy that has caused distortions and dislocations of magnificent proportions.
Traders, usually quick-thinking and thick-skinned, have found no solace in Fed utterings of late, and are taking action on their own, mostly on the side of selling, to the utter dismay of the proponents of central planning and controlled economic reality.
Stocks suffered fairly severely, though still are floating on a sea of liquidity supplied by the ever-present Fed, a condition which - whether it changes or not - seems to have run its course. Valuations are such that further gains need a serious catalyst in the form or fundamentally strong data, which has yet to materialize. Thus, booking profits off the outsize gains from the first half seems to be the prudent strategy prior to the next FOMC meeting in September, and there's little the Fed can do to stem the waves of selling pressure now appearing in all sectors.
A slew of fiscal and geopolitical risks also conspire against the Federal Reserve and the stock market, making the condition ripe for a serious, sustained correction. The cyclical bull, inspired off the first round of QE and ZIRP in March 2009, is now 54 months old, and getting a bit weary.
Only fools would rush in to this market, but as is well known, Wall Street and investment types are replete with foolish folks, so a quick pop prior to a reversal would not be a surprise, though the odds for a solid correction of 5-10% are rising quickly.
Though losses were not large, the Hinderburg Omen strategy remains the most powerful. The advance-decline line was humbled on today's session, the losing streak has all indices down for the month and new lows overwhelmed new highs (as shown below) for the first time in two months. Gold and silver made substantial gains both during NYMEX and electronic trading, with silver the shining out-performer of the day.
All of this sets up for a bearish tone tomorrow and into next week, with key data releases on Thursday, including the closely-watched weekly unemployment claims.
Cisco (CSCO) reported after the bell, beating earnings per share by a penny with revenues roughly in line with estimates. Before the opening bell tomorrow, McDonald's reports with expectations of 1.25 pr share and revenue of 118.25 for the second quarter. Same store comps will be closely monitored as those fell in the previous quarter from a year ago.
Dow 15,337.66, -113.35 (0.73%)
NASDAQ 3,669.27, -15.17 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,685.39, -8.77 (0.52%)
NYSE Composite 9,593.34, -37.23 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,546,362,000
NYSE Volume 3,126,848,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2451-4038
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 217-272
WTI crude oil: 106.85, +0.02
Gold: 1,333.40, +12.90
Silver: 21.79, +0.444
Tuesday, August 13, 2013
Dull and Duller Market Nears Midweek
About the most exciting thing that can be said about the stock market this week is that it's nearly to the middle of it.
The same pattern that has persisted for the better part of two weeks - down in the morning, up in the afternoon - showed itself again today, taking the Dow on a 150+ point round trip.
Carl Icahn tweets that he has a position in Apple and the stock gains five percent. Nice to have money.
Otherwise, there's the Hindenburg Omen sitting out there, making some investors a little fidgety. Others still are making hay. The rest are still making out with other traders' wives in the Hamptons.
And so it goes. If it gets any duller, the exchanges may have to call in clowns and magicians just to keep people interested.
In fact, maybe that's not a bad idea. Between the politicians, the bankers and the fed governors, they have the requisite talent already waiting in the wings.
Advancers to decliners was completely out of whack today, another moment for fans of that Hindenburg thingy.
Dow 15,451.01, +31.33 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 3,684.44, +14.49 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,694.16, +4.69 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 9,630.59, +21.56 (0.22%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,590,814,000
NYSE Volume 3,284,255,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2953-3896
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 261-220
WTI crude oil: 106.83, +0.72
Gold: 1,320.50, -13.70
Silver: 21.34, +0.004
The same pattern that has persisted for the better part of two weeks - down in the morning, up in the afternoon - showed itself again today, taking the Dow on a 150+ point round trip.
Carl Icahn tweets that he has a position in Apple and the stock gains five percent. Nice to have money.
Otherwise, there's the Hindenburg Omen sitting out there, making some investors a little fidgety. Others still are making hay. The rest are still making out with other traders' wives in the Hamptons.
And so it goes. If it gets any duller, the exchanges may have to call in clowns and magicians just to keep people interested.
In fact, maybe that's not a bad idea. Between the politicians, the bankers and the fed governors, they have the requisite talent already waiting in the wings.
Advancers to decliners was completely out of whack today, another moment for fans of that Hindenburg thingy.
Dow 15,451.01, +31.33 (0.20%)
NASDAQ 3,684.44, +14.49 (0.39%)
S&P 500 1,694.16, +4.69 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite 9,630.59, +21.56 (0.22%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,590,814,000
NYSE Volume 3,284,255,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2953-3896
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 261-220
WTI crude oil: 106.83, +0.72
Gold: 1,320.50, -13.70
Silver: 21.34, +0.004
Friday, August 9, 2013
More Churning as Stocks End Week Lower
Stocks disappointed this week, but after all was said and done, the damage was, at worst, marginal, or as Chairman Bernanke and his crony capitalists might call it, modest.
The same pattern of trading appeared every day of the week, typified by a weak start, a bottoming out before noon and a half-hearted rally - on exceptionally-low volume - into the close.
All said, the major indices barely budged.
For the week, the Dow was the biggest loser, down 233 points. The NASDAQ shed all of 29 points, while the S&P dropped a whole 18 points. All this may be indicative of is rotation out of dividend-payers to more speculative stocks, a kind of reverse shoot-the-generals move which is about as back-asswards as this market can get. On the other hand, why should it be any different? Even though the Fed has signaled - with both hands and feet and the waving of other extremities, ear-pulling, farting and goofy faces - that they're going to taper bond-buying in September, why should traders care. It's still a month away, more than ample time to do some shorting, dip-buying and re-selling.
Like a freight train without a locomotive, the market, and the economy, are going nowhere fast.
The whole enterprise is pretty damned stupid.
Meanwhile, silver had made a nice move over the past two days, up more than 4%.
Here's a re-posting of a comment left on another site:
Bravo to all who participate in keeping the spirit of America alive, while the government tears it down.
I should say that I think the tide is turning. These a-holes are visibly shaken on a daily basis and it's only a matter of time before the hackers, the self-employed, the thinking people in America bring this system crashing to its core.
Wall Street and the government (and I mean government at all levels, right down to towns and villages) are beyond corrupt. They are now so transparently out-of-touch and ugly to be contemptible. On a daily basis, I meet more and more people who are just refusing to play along any further, from the contractors who give discounts for cash payments, to landlords of homes in foreclosure, to simple, everyday working people whose loathing for this broken system has turned to disgust and disobedience.
Americans are a rare breed. We'll play along for a while, but, in the meantime, we work our own plans, and eventually there's a clash. Governments always fall. Free people who are willing to fight - by whatever means necessary - will always be free. Few are afraid any longer. The bogeymen of terrorism and national security are being laughed at by the masses.
Sure, there's still a lot of sheeple out there, but there are now enough people with backbone who are unafraid because they no longer want to endure this madness from people like Obama, Hayden, McCain, the banksters, etc., who will actually protect the sheeple from themselves and their nanny state government.
There used to be a poster here with the moniker, "CrashIsOptimistic," and that's now the status quo. The elites - fuck-ups that they are - will cause their own demise, hastened by the very people they wish to subjugate.
Grow your own, run your own, mind your business, and when the tax man or the repo man comes calling, play dumb. My experience with a bad mortgage has now run beyond four years and it's been a valuable learning experience, so much so, that other people are asking my advice, which, is simply, FIGHT.
Carry on. They can kill us all, but seriously, who wants to live under the thumb of tyrants?
Dow 15,425.51, -72.81 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 3,660.11, -9.02 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,691.42, -6.06 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,622.11, -12.59 (0.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,524,848,625
NYSE Volume 3,203,273,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3006-3470
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 249-131
WTI crude oil: 105.97, +2.57
Gold: 1,312.20, +2.30
Silver: 20.41, +2.14
The same pattern of trading appeared every day of the week, typified by a weak start, a bottoming out before noon and a half-hearted rally - on exceptionally-low volume - into the close.
All said, the major indices barely budged.
For the week, the Dow was the biggest loser, down 233 points. The NASDAQ shed all of 29 points, while the S&P dropped a whole 18 points. All this may be indicative of is rotation out of dividend-payers to more speculative stocks, a kind of reverse shoot-the-generals move which is about as back-asswards as this market can get. On the other hand, why should it be any different? Even though the Fed has signaled - with both hands and feet and the waving of other extremities, ear-pulling, farting and goofy faces - that they're going to taper bond-buying in September, why should traders care. It's still a month away, more than ample time to do some shorting, dip-buying and re-selling.
Like a freight train without a locomotive, the market, and the economy, are going nowhere fast.
The whole enterprise is pretty damned stupid.
Meanwhile, silver had made a nice move over the past two days, up more than 4%.
Here's a re-posting of a comment left on another site:
Bravo to all who participate in keeping the spirit of America alive, while the government tears it down.
I should say that I think the tide is turning. These a-holes are visibly shaken on a daily basis and it's only a matter of time before the hackers, the self-employed, the thinking people in America bring this system crashing to its core.
Wall Street and the government (and I mean government at all levels, right down to towns and villages) are beyond corrupt. They are now so transparently out-of-touch and ugly to be contemptible. On a daily basis, I meet more and more people who are just refusing to play along any further, from the contractors who give discounts for cash payments, to landlords of homes in foreclosure, to simple, everyday working people whose loathing for this broken system has turned to disgust and disobedience.
Americans are a rare breed. We'll play along for a while, but, in the meantime, we work our own plans, and eventually there's a clash. Governments always fall. Free people who are willing to fight - by whatever means necessary - will always be free. Few are afraid any longer. The bogeymen of terrorism and national security are being laughed at by the masses.
Sure, there's still a lot of sheeple out there, but there are now enough people with backbone who are unafraid because they no longer want to endure this madness from people like Obama, Hayden, McCain, the banksters, etc., who will actually protect the sheeple from themselves and their nanny state government.
There used to be a poster here with the moniker, "CrashIsOptimistic," and that's now the status quo. The elites - fuck-ups that they are - will cause their own demise, hastened by the very people they wish to subjugate.
Grow your own, run your own, mind your business, and when the tax man or the repo man comes calling, play dumb. My experience with a bad mortgage has now run beyond four years and it's been a valuable learning experience, so much so, that other people are asking my advice, which, is simply, FIGHT.
Carry on. They can kill us all, but seriously, who wants to live under the thumb of tyrants?
Dow 15,425.51, -72.81 (0.47%)
NASDAQ 3,660.11, -9.02 (0.25%)
S&P 500 1,691.42, -6.06 (0.36%)
NYSE Composite 9,622.11, -12.59 (0.13%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,524,848,625
NYSE Volume 3,203,273,250
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3006-3470
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 249-131
WTI crude oil: 105.97, +2.57
Gold: 1,312.20, +2.30
Silver: 20.41, +2.14
Thursday, August 8, 2013
The Stock Market Makes Perfect Sense...
...if you are a card-carrying bankster, politician or broker-dealer.
Otherwise, when every available Fed Governor is squealing at the top of his or her lungs that the Fed is going to taper its bond-buying in September ...bond yields should rise.
They keep going down...
And the stock market indices are sitting near all-time highs, or, in the case of the wildly-inflated NASDAQ, 13-year highs.
If you really believe the real estate market is is god shape, unemployment is really 7.4% and that ObamaCare is going to lower premiums and provide for better medical care nationwide, then the stock market at these levels makes perfect sense.
BUY MORE STOCKS.
(The preceding message was brought to you by people who remember when the economy was functioning, when America was a net EXPORTER, and when the federal debt was below $4 billion - which wasn't all that long ago.)
For those of you in your teens and 20s, carrying, or about to embark upon college and student loans, you are toast, debt slaves and completely hoodwinked by people who could care less about your future or the future of this country. Good luck with that four-year degree when you're asking "do you want fries with that?"
That's enough for today. Anybody who can't stand the current economic climate (of uncertainty), post a comment. Or don't. We here at Money Daily don't really care.
BTW: Silver closed above $20 per ounce for the first time since July 29. Will it hold this time? Bear in mind that the London Fix was at $31.75 on February 7 (again, not that long ago). Since then, it's been straight down to around these levels, with a low of 18.61 on June 27. It's still a bargain all the way back to $23 an ounce, and, it's still REAL MONEY.
Dow 15,498.32, +27.65 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,669.12, +15.12 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,697.48, +6.57 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,634.47, +66.21 (0.69%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,641,758,375
NYSE Volume 3,475,672,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4175-2345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 270-112
WTI crude oil: 103.40, -0.97
Gold: 1,309.90, +24.60
Silver: 20.19, +0.685
Otherwise, when every available Fed Governor is squealing at the top of his or her lungs that the Fed is going to taper its bond-buying in September ...bond yields should rise.
They keep going down...
And the stock market indices are sitting near all-time highs, or, in the case of the wildly-inflated NASDAQ, 13-year highs.
If you really believe the real estate market is is god shape, unemployment is really 7.4% and that ObamaCare is going to lower premiums and provide for better medical care nationwide, then the stock market at these levels makes perfect sense.
BUY MORE STOCKS.
(The preceding message was brought to you by people who remember when the economy was functioning, when America was a net EXPORTER, and when the federal debt was below $4 billion - which wasn't all that long ago.)
For those of you in your teens and 20s, carrying, or about to embark upon college and student loans, you are toast, debt slaves and completely hoodwinked by people who could care less about your future or the future of this country. Good luck with that four-year degree when you're asking "do you want fries with that?"
That's enough for today. Anybody who can't stand the current economic climate (of uncertainty), post a comment. Or don't. We here at Money Daily don't really care.
BTW: Silver closed above $20 per ounce for the first time since July 29. Will it hold this time? Bear in mind that the London Fix was at $31.75 on February 7 (again, not that long ago). Since then, it's been straight down to around these levels, with a low of 18.61 on June 27. It's still a bargain all the way back to $23 an ounce, and, it's still REAL MONEY.
Dow 15,498.32, +27.65 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 3,669.12, +15.12 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,697.48, +6.57 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,634.47, +66.21 (0.69%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,641,758,375
NYSE Volume 3,475,672,000
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4175-2345
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 270-112
WTI crude oil: 103.40, -0.97
Gold: 1,309.90, +24.60
Silver: 20.19, +0.685
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