With little movement in the major indices - or individual stocks, for that matter - it is evident to anyone watching or participating in equity and bond markets that the financial world anxiously awaits the policy statement from the FOMC tomorrow at 2:00 pm ET, in which the Fed may or may not announce the tapering of its bond purchasing program.
Currently stuck at monthly figures of $45 billion in treasury purchases and another $40 billion in MBS (mortgage-backed securities), signs that the Fed may have enough reliable data to begin scaling the program back are still ambiguous. There have been hints, predictions and all manner of speculation on what the Fed will announce via their final policy meeting of the year, but one thing remains certain: the Fed must begin to curtail this program soon, not only because it has been ineffective, but that it could also do (and may have already) damage to the fragile economy.
On Wall Street, there's widespread belief that a cut-back in bond purchases by the Federal Reserve would cause a dip in the equity indices, being that there would be less of the free champagne money flowing to the TBTF banks, but a growing suspicion that the extent of these bond purchases, with money going to the connected and already-well-heeled, may be causing a rift of considerable proportions between the monied interests of the financiers and the rest of the planet.
Income disparity, already at an extraordinarily-high rate preceding the crisis of 2008-09, has been exacerbated by the easy money put into the hands of the rich, a trend which may be leading to suspicion, distrust and eventually, class enmity.
So, with less than 24 hours before what may be a significant announcement, traders have chosen to sit upon their collective hands, leaving volume at some of the lowest levels of the year.
Wednesday's FOMC announcement should provide some pre-holiday fireworks. If not, markets could just as easily rally from relief as sell off from disappointment. Whatever the Fed has planned for tomorrow should affect everything from stock prices to mortgage rates.
DOW 15,875.26, -9.31 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ 4,023.68, -5.84 (-0.14%)
S&P 1,781.00, -5.54 (-0.31%)
10-Yr Note 99.05, +0.77 (+0.79%) Yield: 2.86%
NASDAQ Volume 1.59 Bil
NYSE Volume 2.82 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2593-2889
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 154-117
WTI crude oil: 97.22, -0.26
Gold: 1,230.10, -14.30
Silver: 19.84, -0.261
Corn: 426.75, +3.50
Showing posts with label taper. Show all posts
Showing posts with label taper. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
Stocks Suffer Heavy Losses in Biggest Two-Day Selloff in Two Months
Not since the uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown in October have stocks suffered through a two-day period such as the one ended Wednesday afternoon.
Stocks were lower at the open and never gained positive ground for the entirety of the session.
Besides the usual fears of Federal Reserve tapering in December (or soon thereafter, as everybody knows it's coming), the latest buzz comes from the far East, where talk of China's overcapacity in an enormous number of industries is fueling speculation of a slowdown in the growth rate of the world's most populous nation.
Another way of expressing overcapacity concerns is slack demand in consumer countries from the USA to the various Eurozone nations and Great Britain. All taken together, a slowdown could be coming at exactly the wrong time for the resident intellectuals at the Fed, who may see their hand forced to curtail - at least to some extent - their bond purchases.
The three-headed monster of slowing industrial growth, slack consumer demand and a pullback of stimulus appears ready to launch an attack on wary equity investors who have been mostly riding a liquidity gravy train for nearly the past five years.
While the two-day selling event may portend even more selling heading through December - usually one of the strongest months for stocks - the fact that the major averages have been down seven of the last nine sessions, belies the false move presented last Friday on November's blowout non-farm jobs data when the Dow was up nearly 200 points. Monday's five-point gain on the Dow was nothing more than a rounding error. Today and yesterday's losses have nearly given all of last Friday's gains back. The Dow is just 22 points above last Thursday's close, setting up this Thursday (tomorrow) as a potential mini-correction if the Dow closes below 15,821.51.
Technical damage has been done recently, both to blue chips and more speculative issues. The NASDAQ suffered the brunt of the selling today, losing nearly 1 1/2 percent on the day. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than a four to one margin.
Another concern is volume, which picked up in today's downside trading. Making matters even more bearish were the new lows, which completely subsumed today's new highs, 208-104, a key indicator for direction, and, if it holds, a sure signal for a market correction or outright bear market, something which is probably long overdue.
Happy Holidays? Depends upon which side of the trade you're on.
DOW 15,843.53, -129.60 (-0.81%)
NASDAQ 4,003.81, -56.68, (-1.40%)
S&P 1,782.22, -20.40 (-1.13%)
10-Yr Note 99.46 +0.30 (+0.30%) Yield 2.84%
NASDAQ Volume 1.78 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.46 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1096-4603
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 104-208
WTI crude oil: 97.44, -1.07
Gold: 1,257.20, -3.90
Silver: 20.36, +0.041
Corn: 439.25, +3.25
Stocks were lower at the open and never gained positive ground for the entirety of the session.
Besides the usual fears of Federal Reserve tapering in December (or soon thereafter, as everybody knows it's coming), the latest buzz comes from the far East, where talk of China's overcapacity in an enormous number of industries is fueling speculation of a slowdown in the growth rate of the world's most populous nation.
Another way of expressing overcapacity concerns is slack demand in consumer countries from the USA to the various Eurozone nations and Great Britain. All taken together, a slowdown could be coming at exactly the wrong time for the resident intellectuals at the Fed, who may see their hand forced to curtail - at least to some extent - their bond purchases.
The three-headed monster of slowing industrial growth, slack consumer demand and a pullback of stimulus appears ready to launch an attack on wary equity investors who have been mostly riding a liquidity gravy train for nearly the past five years.
While the two-day selling event may portend even more selling heading through December - usually one of the strongest months for stocks - the fact that the major averages have been down seven of the last nine sessions, belies the false move presented last Friday on November's blowout non-farm jobs data when the Dow was up nearly 200 points. Monday's five-point gain on the Dow was nothing more than a rounding error. Today and yesterday's losses have nearly given all of last Friday's gains back. The Dow is just 22 points above last Thursday's close, setting up this Thursday (tomorrow) as a potential mini-correction if the Dow closes below 15,821.51.
Technical damage has been done recently, both to blue chips and more speculative issues. The NASDAQ suffered the brunt of the selling today, losing nearly 1 1/2 percent on the day. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than a four to one margin.
Another concern is volume, which picked up in today's downside trading. Making matters even more bearish were the new lows, which completely subsumed today's new highs, 208-104, a key indicator for direction, and, if it holds, a sure signal for a market correction or outright bear market, something which is probably long overdue.
Happy Holidays? Depends upon which side of the trade you're on.
DOW 15,843.53, -129.60 (-0.81%)
NASDAQ 4,003.81, -56.68, (-1.40%)
S&P 1,782.22, -20.40 (-1.13%)
10-Yr Note 99.46 +0.30 (+0.30%) Yield 2.84%
NASDAQ Volume 1.78 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.46 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 1096-4603
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 104-208
WTI crude oil: 97.44, -1.07
Gold: 1,257.20, -3.90
Silver: 20.36, +0.041
Corn: 439.25, +3.25
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Another Dismal Day in the Dumps for Stock Owners
Certainly, nobody is going to feel sorry for the Wall Street lemmings, vultures and whales for another losing day on stocks. After all, the major averages are up more than 25% on the year and a good number of individual issues are up much more than that, many having doubled in price over the past 48 weeks.
So, excuse us if we cry crocodile tears for well-heeled investors and speculators.
There is, however, a little bit of a problem in the markets, and it is completely and everlastingly tied to the Federal reserve and their Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and continuing quantitative easing (QE), about which there is much debate, constrnation and confusion.
The final meeting of the year for the FOMC is slated for next Tuesday and Wednesday, and, while nobody in their right mind expects this august body to announce any rate policy changes, there is the small matter of decreasing the amount of securities the Fed is buying every month (QE) from the current $85 billion to something less than that, otherwise known as "tapering."
CNBCs Steve Liesman, who has a pipeline directly to and from the Fed, announced today that tapering would be announced at the December meeting. That news, and the final acceptance and future implementation of the Volker Rule, sent stocks backpedaling from the outset. The Volker Rule, in essence, disallows banks from engaging in speculative trading with depositors' money, something the various agencies feel was responsible for at least a part of the financial crisis of the past five years.
The rule puts severe restrictions on what banks can and can't do in terms of proprietary trading (i.e., speculating), but it is dense, long, deep, and riddled with potential loopholes for crafty lawyers and bankers to slither all kinds of nefarious doings through. The Volker Rule document - three years and 585 pages in the making - is, in reality, nothing more than a full-employment bill for litigation attorneys. Bully for them.
QE, and, more specifically, the tapering of QE, is another animal altogether. The Fed has been jawboning about the possibility of scaling back their bond purchases - $45 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in MBS - since May, with varying degrees of success. Wall Street banks, being the main beneficiaries of the program, would like the policy to extend to infinity and beyond, though they know in their dark heart of hearts that it must come to some kind of conclusion. The US economy cannot be force-fed money by the central bank forever.
Besides the program being excessively beneficial to banks and somewhat harmful to small businesses, consumers and emerging market nations, there is another problem that the Fed may never have considered. Due to their monopolizing of the MBS and treasury markets, the available bond issuance is dwindling, so much so, that the Fed may have no choice but to wind down such programs.
The other side of the equation is such that the Fed has so far crowded out potential bidders that there may not be many who actually want to participate. Thus, many in the bond world see even a slight decrease of buying by the Fed as a potential for higher interest rates, including interest on government debt itself, which is already a large portion of the Federal budget but could grow into a behemoth should the federal government have to begin paying back interest at higher and higher rates.
These are the unforeseen, though somewhat predictable, ramifications of the Fed's actions, actions that forestalled an implosion of the financial system and the insolvency of many of the world's largest financial institutions, dating back to the halcyon days of 2008 and $800 billion in TARP money and then-Fed Chairman Hank Paulson holding a gun to the economy's head.
So, Liesman may be bluffing at the behest of the Fed, or he could have just issued the warning shot to the markets that the plundering of assets with free money is about to come to an end.
The signs that the policy has run its course are profligate: record art and collectible car auctions, record high-end real estate prices, record stock prices.
Enough is enough. The party is about to come to a crashing, cataclysmic conclusion, and as cataclysms usually are, this one is not likely to be pretty.
Technically speaking, the advance-decline line deteriorated again today, the gap between new highs and new lows continues to show signs of shrinking and potentially flipping, and outside of Friday's massive vapor-rise, stocks have fallen every day since Thanksgiving.
The good news (for some) is that commodity prices took a lift today, with silver and gold leading the way.
DOW 15,973.13, -52.40 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ 4,060.49, -8.26 (-0.20%)
S&P 1,802.62, -5.75, (-0.32%)
10-Yr Note 99.43, +0.37 (+0.37%), Yield: 2.80%
NASDAQ Volume 1.71 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.07 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2115-3553
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-113
WTI crude oil: 98.51, +1.17
Gold: 1,261.10, +26.90
Silver: 20.32, +0.614
Corn: 436.00, -2.00
So, excuse us if we cry crocodile tears for well-heeled investors and speculators.
There is, however, a little bit of a problem in the markets, and it is completely and everlastingly tied to the Federal reserve and their Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and continuing quantitative easing (QE), about which there is much debate, constrnation and confusion.
The final meeting of the year for the FOMC is slated for next Tuesday and Wednesday, and, while nobody in their right mind expects this august body to announce any rate policy changes, there is the small matter of decreasing the amount of securities the Fed is buying every month (QE) from the current $85 billion to something less than that, otherwise known as "tapering."
CNBCs Steve Liesman, who has a pipeline directly to and from the Fed, announced today that tapering would be announced at the December meeting. That news, and the final acceptance and future implementation of the Volker Rule, sent stocks backpedaling from the outset. The Volker Rule, in essence, disallows banks from engaging in speculative trading with depositors' money, something the various agencies feel was responsible for at least a part of the financial crisis of the past five years.
The rule puts severe restrictions on what banks can and can't do in terms of proprietary trading (i.e., speculating), but it is dense, long, deep, and riddled with potential loopholes for crafty lawyers and bankers to slither all kinds of nefarious doings through. The Volker Rule document - three years and 585 pages in the making - is, in reality, nothing more than a full-employment bill for litigation attorneys. Bully for them.
QE, and, more specifically, the tapering of QE, is another animal altogether. The Fed has been jawboning about the possibility of scaling back their bond purchases - $45 billion in treasuries and $40 billion in MBS - since May, with varying degrees of success. Wall Street banks, being the main beneficiaries of the program, would like the policy to extend to infinity and beyond, though they know in their dark heart of hearts that it must come to some kind of conclusion. The US economy cannot be force-fed money by the central bank forever.
Besides the program being excessively beneficial to banks and somewhat harmful to small businesses, consumers and emerging market nations, there is another problem that the Fed may never have considered. Due to their monopolizing of the MBS and treasury markets, the available bond issuance is dwindling, so much so, that the Fed may have no choice but to wind down such programs.
The other side of the equation is such that the Fed has so far crowded out potential bidders that there may not be many who actually want to participate. Thus, many in the bond world see even a slight decrease of buying by the Fed as a potential for higher interest rates, including interest on government debt itself, which is already a large portion of the Federal budget but could grow into a behemoth should the federal government have to begin paying back interest at higher and higher rates.
These are the unforeseen, though somewhat predictable, ramifications of the Fed's actions, actions that forestalled an implosion of the financial system and the insolvency of many of the world's largest financial institutions, dating back to the halcyon days of 2008 and $800 billion in TARP money and then-Fed Chairman Hank Paulson holding a gun to the economy's head.
So, Liesman may be bluffing at the behest of the Fed, or he could have just issued the warning shot to the markets that the plundering of assets with free money is about to come to an end.
The signs that the policy has run its course are profligate: record art and collectible car auctions, record high-end real estate prices, record stock prices.
Enough is enough. The party is about to come to a crashing, cataclysmic conclusion, and as cataclysms usually are, this one is not likely to be pretty.
Technically speaking, the advance-decline line deteriorated again today, the gap between new highs and new lows continues to show signs of shrinking and potentially flipping, and outside of Friday's massive vapor-rise, stocks have fallen every day since Thanksgiving.
The good news (for some) is that commodity prices took a lift today, with silver and gold leading the way.
DOW 15,973.13, -52.40 (-0.33%)
NASDAQ 4,060.49, -8.26 (-0.20%)
S&P 1,802.62, -5.75, (-0.32%)
10-Yr Note 99.43, +0.37 (+0.37%), Yield: 2.80%
NASDAQ Volume 1.71 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.07 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2115-3553
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 206-113
WTI crude oil: 98.51, +1.17
Gold: 1,261.10, +26.90
Silver: 20.32, +0.614
Corn: 436.00, -2.00
Friday, December 6, 2013
November Jobs: 203,000; So, Now Good News Is Good News?
Highly anticipated all week, the November Non-farm payroll report from the BLS showed 203,000 jobs created during the month. The official unemployment rate fell to 7.0%, which, for all intents and purposes, is pretty close to not just the Fed's 6.5% target for raising interest rates, but not too distant from what is regarded as full employment at five percent unemployed.
Initially thought to be a negative if the number came in anywhere above official estimates of 185,000, index futures got ramped higher and stocks were off to the races, opening with a huge gap higher and maintaining price levels throughout the final session of the first week of December.
For the week, the Dow was down just 66.21 points; the S&P missed closing positive by a mere 0.72; and, the NASDAQ actually closed in the green for the week by 2.63 points.
Opinions varied widely about what the movement in stocks meant, based upon the potential for tapering of the bond buying program by the Fed. In general terms, the Fed now has Wall Street's tacit approval to begin winding down the $85 billion a month program as early as this month. either that, or today's trading, and all the supposed "fearful profit taking" of the first four days of the week were simply short-term momentum trades, rooted in absolutely nothing.
In any case, those who were short the market for the better part of the first four days of the week and then went long at the close on Thursday (cue insider bankster types) were big winners. Anybody who waited for the number to be released prior to the opening on Friday, ate dust.
And that, my friends, is how the game is played. Good news may very well be perceived as bad news, until the size players decide that good news is good news, after all. Pure thievery at a high level is probably the most apt description of how this week played out. A telltale sign was the absurdly low volume, especially coming in anticipation, and, on the heels of a critically "important" number.
Thank goodness, Christmas is less than three weeks away and the retailers haven't had much to say, but that card will be turned shortly, and it could be a wild one.
DOW 16,020.20, +198.69 (+1.26%)
NASDAQ 4,062.52, +29.36 (+0.73%)
S&P 1,805.09, +20.06 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Note 99.03, +0.74 (+0.76%)
NASDAQ Volume 1.49 Bil
NYSE Volume 2.74 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3965-1711
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 310-112
WTI crude oil: 97.65, +0.27
Gold: 1,229.00, -2.90
Silver: 19.52, -0.047
Corn: 434.25, +0.75
Initially thought to be a negative if the number came in anywhere above official estimates of 185,000, index futures got ramped higher and stocks were off to the races, opening with a huge gap higher and maintaining price levels throughout the final session of the first week of December.
For the week, the Dow was down just 66.21 points; the S&P missed closing positive by a mere 0.72; and, the NASDAQ actually closed in the green for the week by 2.63 points.
Opinions varied widely about what the movement in stocks meant, based upon the potential for tapering of the bond buying program by the Fed. In general terms, the Fed now has Wall Street's tacit approval to begin winding down the $85 billion a month program as early as this month. either that, or today's trading, and all the supposed "fearful profit taking" of the first four days of the week were simply short-term momentum trades, rooted in absolutely nothing.
In any case, those who were short the market for the better part of the first four days of the week and then went long at the close on Thursday (cue insider bankster types) were big winners. Anybody who waited for the number to be released prior to the opening on Friday, ate dust.
And that, my friends, is how the game is played. Good news may very well be perceived as bad news, until the size players decide that good news is good news, after all. Pure thievery at a high level is probably the most apt description of how this week played out. A telltale sign was the absurdly low volume, especially coming in anticipation, and, on the heels of a critically "important" number.
Thank goodness, Christmas is less than three weeks away and the retailers haven't had much to say, but that card will be turned shortly, and it could be a wild one.
DOW 16,020.20, +198.69 (+1.26%)
NASDAQ 4,062.52, +29.36 (+0.73%)
S&P 1,805.09, +20.06 (+1.12%)
10-Yr Note 99.03, +0.74 (+0.76%)
NASDAQ Volume 1.49 Bil
NYSE Volume 2.74 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 3965-1711
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 310-112
WTI crude oil: 97.65, +0.27
Gold: 1,229.00, -2.90
Silver: 19.52, -0.047
Corn: 434.25, +0.75
Thursday, December 5, 2013
Dow, S&P Post Fifth Straight Losing Session; Fed Tapering Fears to Blame
Stcks took another turn lower on Thursday after the government reported its second estimate of GDP for the third quarter grew at a rate of 3.6%, far ahed of even the most bullish estimates and a dramatic revision from the first estimate of 2.8% growth.
Inside the numbers, more than half of the GDP push was due to inventory builds, the consumer spending portion of the calculation lower than previous quarters. Additionally, the govenment changed the way it calculates GD per the second quarter, so the adjusted figures include intangible assets (normally treated as liabilities on any corporate balance sheet, but as growth assets according to the infamous trick economists the government employs). All estimates of GDP from the second quarter of 2013 onward, and especially during the initial quarters through the second quarter of 2014, should be viewed as more mark-to-fantasy accounting by the government, designed to make the economy look better than it actually is.
The new calculus of GDP is a double-edged sword going forward, as higher GDP emotes thoughts of Fed tapering of bond purchases, currently the lifeblood of the stock markets. While it looks good on the surface, the net effect in stocks is negative, for now.
In some glorious, imagined future world, higher GDP, based on various faulty assumptions, will produce a happiness effect or contentment, which, along with the Fed's highly-dubious but nonetheless heavily-touted "wealth effect" will be hailed as the outcome of successful Fed policies or some other rubbish, and, which the lazy, out-of-touch politicians in congress and the White House can somehow claim credit.
Sadly, or perhaps happily, in this good-news-is-bad-news regime, the headline-munching algos controlling the stock market can't read between the lines and are programmed to sell on economic improvement, whether the data is flawed or pristine. The Wall Street herd (and it is nothing other than herd mentality dictating direction) is equally deficient by buying into flawed data, but those are the cards issued by the underhanded Fed bottom-card-dealing Fed. The choice to raise, hold or fold is entirely up to the traders, though at this juncture, they're collecting their profits and running from the gaming tables in advance of november non-farm payrolls, due out Friday at 8:30 am ET.
The other number issued today was courtesy of the BLS in weekly initial jobless claims, coming in at 298,000, a six-year low, the good news just adding more melancholy to traders who have brought the Dow and S&P indices lower for the fifth straight session.
Those paying attention to internals will note that the advance-decline line continues to erode, and that new lows finally overtook new highs today, for the first time since early October. Those two indicators will be supplying signals beyond the November non-farm payroll data tomorrow and should be viewed as the least-abused and most reliable signs for market direction.
Precius metals were hammered lower once again, though nary a gold or silver bug can be heard complaining, considering the lowered prices to be akin to a pre-Christmas sale on the metals.
DOW 15,821.51, -68.26 (-0.43%)
NASDAQ 4,033.16, -4.84 (-0.12%)
S&P 1,785.03, -7.78 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Note 99.08 0.00 (0.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 1.79 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.30 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2217-3433
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 127-164
WTI crude oil: 97.38, -0.18
Gold: 1,231.90, -15.30
Silver: 19.57, -0.26
Corn: 433.50, -3.00
Inside the numbers, more than half of the GDP push was due to inventory builds, the consumer spending portion of the calculation lower than previous quarters. Additionally, the govenment changed the way it calculates GD per the second quarter, so the adjusted figures include intangible assets (normally treated as liabilities on any corporate balance sheet, but as growth assets according to the infamous trick economists the government employs). All estimates of GDP from the second quarter of 2013 onward, and especially during the initial quarters through the second quarter of 2014, should be viewed as more mark-to-fantasy accounting by the government, designed to make the economy look better than it actually is.
The new calculus of GDP is a double-edged sword going forward, as higher GDP emotes thoughts of Fed tapering of bond purchases, currently the lifeblood of the stock markets. While it looks good on the surface, the net effect in stocks is negative, for now.
In some glorious, imagined future world, higher GDP, based on various faulty assumptions, will produce a happiness effect or contentment, which, along with the Fed's highly-dubious but nonetheless heavily-touted "wealth effect" will be hailed as the outcome of successful Fed policies or some other rubbish, and, which the lazy, out-of-touch politicians in congress and the White House can somehow claim credit.
Sadly, or perhaps happily, in this good-news-is-bad-news regime, the headline-munching algos controlling the stock market can't read between the lines and are programmed to sell on economic improvement, whether the data is flawed or pristine. The Wall Street herd (and it is nothing other than herd mentality dictating direction) is equally deficient by buying into flawed data, but those are the cards issued by the underhanded Fed bottom-card-dealing Fed. The choice to raise, hold or fold is entirely up to the traders, though at this juncture, they're collecting their profits and running from the gaming tables in advance of november non-farm payrolls, due out Friday at 8:30 am ET.
The other number issued today was courtesy of the BLS in weekly initial jobless claims, coming in at 298,000, a six-year low, the good news just adding more melancholy to traders who have brought the Dow and S&P indices lower for the fifth straight session.
Those paying attention to internals will note that the advance-decline line continues to erode, and that new lows finally overtook new highs today, for the first time since early October. Those two indicators will be supplying signals beyond the November non-farm payroll data tomorrow and should be viewed as the least-abused and most reliable signs for market direction.
Precius metals were hammered lower once again, though nary a gold or silver bug can be heard complaining, considering the lowered prices to be akin to a pre-Christmas sale on the metals.
DOW 15,821.51, -68.26 (-0.43%)
NASDAQ 4,033.16, -4.84 (-0.12%)
S&P 1,785.03, -7.78 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Note 99.08 0.00 (0.00%)
NASDAQ Volume 1.79 Bil
NYSE Volume 3.30 Bil
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2217-3433
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 127-164
WTI crude oil: 97.38, -0.18
Gold: 1,231.90, -15.30
Silver: 19.57, -0.26
Corn: 433.50, -3.00
Wednesday, September 18, 2013
Surprise! Fed Ponzi Scheme Not Working, Will Continue
No change in asset (ha, ha, ha, ha) purchases.
The Fed is content to continue buying worthless paper with make-believe money they create out of thin air.
Sending this money mainly to the primary dealers via zero interest rate policy and repo actions, the dealers become free to speculate in whatever assets they believe worth pursuing, driving prices, in the main, higher.
The next magic trick is more difficult. These primary dealers are supposed to lend out their unallocated capital into the market, creating debt, which is, after all, the only goal of fractional reserve bankers.
Essentially, by changing nothing - even though the Fed hinted strongly that asset purchases would be "tapered" and the markets expected as much - the Fed is telling the world that their stimulus programs have not resulted in the expected results. Inflation remains below their desired threshold, unemployment remains stubbornly high and economic growth continues to be muted, the GDP, even with hedonic adjustments and recent additions, failing to achieve three percent annualized in any quarter since the collapse of 2008-09.
So, everything stays the same. The Fed keeps buying $45 billion of worthless government debt and $40 billion of even more destructive and toxic mortgage debt (toxic because price, or par, is at an excessive, unrealistic level) every month, in hopes that the combined markets which fuel the economy will continue to stumble forward.
Contemporary and classic theories of economics both say this kind of activity can lead to no good. Eventually all assets become overpriced in terms of a depreciating currency to the point at which the currency is no longer accepted in trade. Until the malinestments are purged from the system, normalcy in markets cannot occur, and guess who is holding most of the bad investments.
Central banks, particularly the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ) and, surpassing them all by levels of magnitude, the US Federal Reserve will end up holding most of the world's assets. Central banks are cornered without escape. They must keep devaluing their currencies in order to service burgeoning debt set against faulty assets. In terms of bubbles, the central banks of the developed nations are the world's greatest bubble and when that pops, there will be true freedom in economies, currencies, prices and price discovery. Not until.
More than anyone else, David Stockman has captured the essence of the current economic climate by use of the word "deformation." The global economy is deformed, distorted, obtuse and opaque. All price discovery mechanisms have been distorted out of recognition by the continuing debasement of currencies.
Even though nothing changed, markets behaved as if something had. Stocks roared to new highs on the Dow and S&P 500, but, here's the kicker: by percentage, hard assets were the most appreciated on the day. Commodities, particularly crude oil, gold and silver all outpaced stocks by multiples. Gold surged 4.5%, silver up 7.5%, crude gained a paltry 2.5%, making the sloppy one percent returns in stocks look like a piker's paradise.
The ramifications of today's Fed (in)action are monumental and trend-setting. So much so, that they cannot be easily disseminated and pursued in a single blog post, though they will have enduring effects, which Money Daily will continue to report upon in the days, weeks and months ahead.
Happy Hunting! Free Houses for Everybody!
Dow 15,676.94, +147.21 (0.95%)
Nasdaq 3,783.64, +37.94 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,725.52, +20.76 (1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 2.71%, -0.14
NYSE Volume 4,410,661,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,769,496,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5052-1648
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 565-51
WTI crude oil: 108.07, +2.65
Gold: 1,366.40, +58.80
Silver: 23.18, +1.616
The Fed is content to continue buying worthless paper with make-believe money they create out of thin air.
Sending this money mainly to the primary dealers via zero interest rate policy and repo actions, the dealers become free to speculate in whatever assets they believe worth pursuing, driving prices, in the main, higher.
The next magic trick is more difficult. These primary dealers are supposed to lend out their unallocated capital into the market, creating debt, which is, after all, the only goal of fractional reserve bankers.
Essentially, by changing nothing - even though the Fed hinted strongly that asset purchases would be "tapered" and the markets expected as much - the Fed is telling the world that their stimulus programs have not resulted in the expected results. Inflation remains below their desired threshold, unemployment remains stubbornly high and economic growth continues to be muted, the GDP, even with hedonic adjustments and recent additions, failing to achieve three percent annualized in any quarter since the collapse of 2008-09.
So, everything stays the same. The Fed keeps buying $45 billion of worthless government debt and $40 billion of even more destructive and toxic mortgage debt (toxic because price, or par, is at an excessive, unrealistic level) every month, in hopes that the combined markets which fuel the economy will continue to stumble forward.
Contemporary and classic theories of economics both say this kind of activity can lead to no good. Eventually all assets become overpriced in terms of a depreciating currency to the point at which the currency is no longer accepted in trade. Until the malinestments are purged from the system, normalcy in markets cannot occur, and guess who is holding most of the bad investments.
Central banks, particularly the Bank of England, the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ) and, surpassing them all by levels of magnitude, the US Federal Reserve will end up holding most of the world's assets. Central banks are cornered without escape. They must keep devaluing their currencies in order to service burgeoning debt set against faulty assets. In terms of bubbles, the central banks of the developed nations are the world's greatest bubble and when that pops, there will be true freedom in economies, currencies, prices and price discovery. Not until.
More than anyone else, David Stockman has captured the essence of the current economic climate by use of the word "deformation." The global economy is deformed, distorted, obtuse and opaque. All price discovery mechanisms have been distorted out of recognition by the continuing debasement of currencies.
Even though nothing changed, markets behaved as if something had. Stocks roared to new highs on the Dow and S&P 500, but, here's the kicker: by percentage, hard assets were the most appreciated on the day. Commodities, particularly crude oil, gold and silver all outpaced stocks by multiples. Gold surged 4.5%, silver up 7.5%, crude gained a paltry 2.5%, making the sloppy one percent returns in stocks look like a piker's paradise.
The ramifications of today's Fed (in)action are monumental and trend-setting. So much so, that they cannot be easily disseminated and pursued in a single blog post, though they will have enduring effects, which Money Daily will continue to report upon in the days, weeks and months ahead.
Happy Hunting! Free Houses for Everybody!
Dow 15,676.94, +147.21 (0.95%)
Nasdaq 3,783.64, +37.94 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,725.52, +20.76 (1.22%)
10-Yr Bond 2.71%, -0.14
NYSE Volume 4,410,661,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,769,496,125
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 5052-1648
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 565-51
WTI crude oil: 108.07, +2.65
Gold: 1,366.40, +58.80
Silver: 23.18, +1.616
Friday, August 23, 2013
Friday Wrap: New Home Sales Plummet; Stocks Thin Trade Up; Joe Cocker's Response?
Where we are, it's a beautiful summer day. Crickets are chirping, bees buzzing, birds singing, everything is green and red and gold, warm and wonderful.
Speaking of gold, what was that spike just after 10:00 am, all about? Oh, housing. Yes. New home sales fell by 13% in July, due - according to most usually-misinformed experts - mainly to rising interest rates. It was the lowest level of sales in nine months. Additionally, June figures were revised dramatically lower.
Well, OK, so new homes, already overvalued and, like new cars, worth less than what you paid (and will be paying for 30 years) the moment you walk in the front door for the first time, aren't such a bargain anymore. But why does that affect the price of gold? And, concomitantly, why did interest rates dip at the same time?
Maybe because the economy isn't as good as the doves at the Fed would like us to believe. They still think there's a good chance that they can stop stimulating the economy in September, or maybe October, or, or, or... maybe some day, without crashing the market. And that leads some people to run for safety, in things they can actually touch and feel and believe are undervalued, like gold (and silver, which was up big again today), or to bonds, which are traditionally safer investments than stocks (we'll reserve judgement on that one for now).
Stocks were higher at the close today, but, despite today's thinly-traded silliness, the Dow ended the week down 71 points, the NASDAQ (even being closed half the day yesterday) was still up 55 points (bubble?), and the S&P gained 7.62. Pretty much, the week was a non-event. That's three down weeks in a row for the Dow, and a little bit of a break for the S&P and NASDAQ, down the previous two weeks.
As for the Fed, all they need is some solid economic data that shows the US (and by proxy, the global) economy is healing nicely, or "recovering" as they say, but, like a wounded patient, recovery is an empirical event, one which can be seen, not hocus-pocus numerology or fantasy ripped from the headlines. It is a phenomenon which can be observed. The gal with the broken leg takes off the cast and walks again. The guy who had a heart attack can do jumping jacks or go jogging. That's what recovery looks like.
If the US economy was a patient with an illness, it would have been flat on its back, probably on an operating table, back in 2008-09. Since then, it has been pumped full of fluids, fitted with prosthetics and taken from critical condition to "under observation." Take away the fake limbs and it can't walk or feed itself. Cut off the fluids and the patient will atrophy and die.
That's why the Fed can't taper in September. The patient is still too weak and has been propped up by artificial means (QE and ZIRP). Take those away and the patient will relapse, but, the Fed may give it a go anyway, despite strong empiricial evidence that it is the wrong course of action. That's what the Fed does best - hard to believe from people who are supposed to be smart; they usually make bad moves.
In the end, there will be pain, despite or in response to whatever the Federal reserve does. The economy remains weak and may actually be getting weaker. If they start trimming their bond purchases, it most certainly will not improve, prompting what we think may be the appropriate response for all of us, courtesy of Joe Cocker, from Woodstock, way, way, way back in 1969:
Dow 15,010.36, +46.62 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 3,657.79, +19.08 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,663.47, +6.51 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,474.75, +48.97 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,453,646,250
NYSE Volume 2,586,104,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4141-2401
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 156-52
WTI crude oil: 106.42, +1.39
Gold: 1,395.80, +25.00
Silver: 23.74, +0.703
Speaking of gold, what was that spike just after 10:00 am, all about? Oh, housing. Yes. New home sales fell by 13% in July, due - according to most usually-misinformed experts - mainly to rising interest rates. It was the lowest level of sales in nine months. Additionally, June figures were revised dramatically lower.
Well, OK, so new homes, already overvalued and, like new cars, worth less than what you paid (and will be paying for 30 years) the moment you walk in the front door for the first time, aren't such a bargain anymore. But why does that affect the price of gold? And, concomitantly, why did interest rates dip at the same time?
Maybe because the economy isn't as good as the doves at the Fed would like us to believe. They still think there's a good chance that they can stop stimulating the economy in September, or maybe October, or, or, or... maybe some day, without crashing the market. And that leads some people to run for safety, in things they can actually touch and feel and believe are undervalued, like gold (and silver, which was up big again today), or to bonds, which are traditionally safer investments than stocks (we'll reserve judgement on that one for now).
Stocks were higher at the close today, but, despite today's thinly-traded silliness, the Dow ended the week down 71 points, the NASDAQ (even being closed half the day yesterday) was still up 55 points (bubble?), and the S&P gained 7.62. Pretty much, the week was a non-event. That's three down weeks in a row for the Dow, and a little bit of a break for the S&P and NASDAQ, down the previous two weeks.
As for the Fed, all they need is some solid economic data that shows the US (and by proxy, the global) economy is healing nicely, or "recovering" as they say, but, like a wounded patient, recovery is an empirical event, one which can be seen, not hocus-pocus numerology or fantasy ripped from the headlines. It is a phenomenon which can be observed. The gal with the broken leg takes off the cast and walks again. The guy who had a heart attack can do jumping jacks or go jogging. That's what recovery looks like.
If the US economy was a patient with an illness, it would have been flat on its back, probably on an operating table, back in 2008-09. Since then, it has been pumped full of fluids, fitted with prosthetics and taken from critical condition to "under observation." Take away the fake limbs and it can't walk or feed itself. Cut off the fluids and the patient will atrophy and die.
That's why the Fed can't taper in September. The patient is still too weak and has been propped up by artificial means (QE and ZIRP). Take those away and the patient will relapse, but, the Fed may give it a go anyway, despite strong empiricial evidence that it is the wrong course of action. That's what the Fed does best - hard to believe from people who are supposed to be smart; they usually make bad moves.
In the end, there will be pain, despite or in response to whatever the Federal reserve does. The economy remains weak and may actually be getting weaker. If they start trimming their bond purchases, it most certainly will not improve, prompting what we think may be the appropriate response for all of us, courtesy of Joe Cocker, from Woodstock, way, way, way back in 1969:
Dow 15,010.36, +46.62 (0.31%)
NASDAQ 3,657.79, +19.08 (0.52%)
S&P 500 1,663.47, +6.51 (0.39%)
NYSE Composite 9,474.75, +48.97 (0.52%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,453,646,250
NYSE Volume 2,586,104,750
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 4141-2401
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 156-52
WTI crude oil: 106.42, +1.39
Gold: 1,395.80, +25.00
Silver: 23.74, +0.703
Wednesday, August 14, 2013
Fed's Bullard Fails to Halt Market Decline; Fed Credibility Nil; Correction, Potential Crash in Motion
At last!
After weeks of churning, uneventful trading, Wall Street delivered a most interesting session on Wednesday.
Instead of the usual down in the morning, up in the afternoon routine that's been de rigueur of late, this was a dip that virtually nobody was buying.
Stocks began the session quietly, but soon fell to their lows of the day, shortly before the close of European markets. Money that had heretofore been jumping from European equities into US stocks did not manage to materialize, as they have over the past few weeks.
Instead, stocks languished in negative territory, with the Dow down between 60 and 90 points most of the midday. Another bump lower between 1:00 and 2:00 pm EDT left the Dow at its lows of the day, the S&P and NASDAQ following it down, though on a lower percentage basis.
At 3:15 pm, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, one of the more effeminate and dovish Fed members, laid out his pre-arranged meme to calm markets in an unofficial speech to a Rotary club in Paducah, Kentucky, saying that he Fed needed more data in the second half before embarking on any kind of bond purchase tapering and that the Fed should hold press conferences after every FOMC meeting, in order to facilitate a more open, quick response to markets.
Initially, stocks moved upward on his comments, but quickly fell back, signaling that traders and markets have become weary of the differentiating tone of the Fed, one day favoring tapering, the next day softening their stance. The market response to Bullard's comments was clearly a sign that fundamental market analysis was overtaking the Fed's manipulation by word of mouth and that the Fed was clearly stuck in a box from which there was no salvageable escape.
Truth is, the economy is not improving to any noticeable degree, and even a partial winding down or "tapering" of QE would cause a selloff in stocks and likely another round of interest rate hikes devoid of any influence from the Federal Reserve. Nearly disarmed and out of ammunition, the Fed is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can declare the economy improving and crash the market (because it isn't) or hold tight to their insane strategy of pumping $85 billion a month in bond purchases for a longer time period, a strategy that has caused distortions and dislocations of magnificent proportions.
Traders, usually quick-thinking and thick-skinned, have found no solace in Fed utterings of late, and are taking action on their own, mostly on the side of selling, to the utter dismay of the proponents of central planning and controlled economic reality.
Stocks suffered fairly severely, though still are floating on a sea of liquidity supplied by the ever-present Fed, a condition which - whether it changes or not - seems to have run its course. Valuations are such that further gains need a serious catalyst in the form or fundamentally strong data, which has yet to materialize. Thus, booking profits off the outsize gains from the first half seems to be the prudent strategy prior to the next FOMC meeting in September, and there's little the Fed can do to stem the waves of selling pressure now appearing in all sectors.
A slew of fiscal and geopolitical risks also conspire against the Federal Reserve and the stock market, making the condition ripe for a serious, sustained correction. The cyclical bull, inspired off the first round of QE and ZIRP in March 2009, is now 54 months old, and getting a bit weary.
Only fools would rush in to this market, but as is well known, Wall Street and investment types are replete with foolish folks, so a quick pop prior to a reversal would not be a surprise, though the odds for a solid correction of 5-10% are rising quickly.
Though losses were not large, the Hinderburg Omen strategy remains the most powerful. The advance-decline line was humbled on today's session, the losing streak has all indices down for the month and new lows overwhelmed new highs (as shown below) for the first time in two months. Gold and silver made substantial gains both during NYMEX and electronic trading, with silver the shining out-performer of the day.
All of this sets up for a bearish tone tomorrow and into next week, with key data releases on Thursday, including the closely-watched weekly unemployment claims.
Cisco (CSCO) reported after the bell, beating earnings per share by a penny with revenues roughly in line with estimates. Before the opening bell tomorrow, McDonald's reports with expectations of 1.25 pr share and revenue of 118.25 for the second quarter. Same store comps will be closely monitored as those fell in the previous quarter from a year ago.
Dow 15,337.66, -113.35 (0.73%)
NASDAQ 3,669.27, -15.17 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,685.39, -8.77 (0.52%)
NYSE Composite 9,593.34, -37.23 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,546,362,000
NYSE Volume 3,126,848,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2451-4038
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 217-272
WTI crude oil: 106.85, +0.02
Gold: 1,333.40, +12.90
Silver: 21.79, +0.444
After weeks of churning, uneventful trading, Wall Street delivered a most interesting session on Wednesday.
Instead of the usual down in the morning, up in the afternoon routine that's been de rigueur of late, this was a dip that virtually nobody was buying.
Stocks began the session quietly, but soon fell to their lows of the day, shortly before the close of European markets. Money that had heretofore been jumping from European equities into US stocks did not manage to materialize, as they have over the past few weeks.
Instead, stocks languished in negative territory, with the Dow down between 60 and 90 points most of the midday. Another bump lower between 1:00 and 2:00 pm EDT left the Dow at its lows of the day, the S&P and NASDAQ following it down, though on a lower percentage basis.
At 3:15 pm, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, one of the more effeminate and dovish Fed members, laid out his pre-arranged meme to calm markets in an unofficial speech to a Rotary club in Paducah, Kentucky, saying that he Fed needed more data in the second half before embarking on any kind of bond purchase tapering and that the Fed should hold press conferences after every FOMC meeting, in order to facilitate a more open, quick response to markets.
Initially, stocks moved upward on his comments, but quickly fell back, signaling that traders and markets have become weary of the differentiating tone of the Fed, one day favoring tapering, the next day softening their stance. The market response to Bullard's comments was clearly a sign that fundamental market analysis was overtaking the Fed's manipulation by word of mouth and that the Fed was clearly stuck in a box from which there was no salvageable escape.
Truth is, the economy is not improving to any noticeable degree, and even a partial winding down or "tapering" of QE would cause a selloff in stocks and likely another round of interest rate hikes devoid of any influence from the Federal Reserve. Nearly disarmed and out of ammunition, the Fed is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can declare the economy improving and crash the market (because it isn't) or hold tight to their insane strategy of pumping $85 billion a month in bond purchases for a longer time period, a strategy that has caused distortions and dislocations of magnificent proportions.
Traders, usually quick-thinking and thick-skinned, have found no solace in Fed utterings of late, and are taking action on their own, mostly on the side of selling, to the utter dismay of the proponents of central planning and controlled economic reality.
Stocks suffered fairly severely, though still are floating on a sea of liquidity supplied by the ever-present Fed, a condition which - whether it changes or not - seems to have run its course. Valuations are such that further gains need a serious catalyst in the form or fundamentally strong data, which has yet to materialize. Thus, booking profits off the outsize gains from the first half seems to be the prudent strategy prior to the next FOMC meeting in September, and there's little the Fed can do to stem the waves of selling pressure now appearing in all sectors.
A slew of fiscal and geopolitical risks also conspire against the Federal Reserve and the stock market, making the condition ripe for a serious, sustained correction. The cyclical bull, inspired off the first round of QE and ZIRP in March 2009, is now 54 months old, and getting a bit weary.
Only fools would rush in to this market, but as is well known, Wall Street and investment types are replete with foolish folks, so a quick pop prior to a reversal would not be a surprise, though the odds for a solid correction of 5-10% are rising quickly.
Though losses were not large, the Hinderburg Omen strategy remains the most powerful. The advance-decline line was humbled on today's session, the losing streak has all indices down for the month and new lows overwhelmed new highs (as shown below) for the first time in two months. Gold and silver made substantial gains both during NYMEX and electronic trading, with silver the shining out-performer of the day.
All of this sets up for a bearish tone tomorrow and into next week, with key data releases on Thursday, including the closely-watched weekly unemployment claims.
Cisco (CSCO) reported after the bell, beating earnings per share by a penny with revenues roughly in line with estimates. Before the opening bell tomorrow, McDonald's reports with expectations of 1.25 pr share and revenue of 118.25 for the second quarter. Same store comps will be closely monitored as those fell in the previous quarter from a year ago.
Dow 15,337.66, -113.35 (0.73%)
NASDAQ 3,669.27, -15.17 (0.41%)
S&P 500 1,685.39, -8.77 (0.52%)
NYSE Composite 9,593.34, -37.23 (0.39%)
NASDAQ Volume 1,546,362,000
NYSE Volume 3,126,848,500
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ Advance - Decline: 2451-4038
Combined NYSE & NASDAQ New highs - New lows: 217-272
WTI crude oil: 106.85, +0.02
Gold: 1,333.40, +12.90
Silver: 21.79, +0.444
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
