Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Stocks Predict The Next President Should Be Trump

Wall Street people pride themselves largely upon their particular abilities, especially those who use other people's money (OPM) to wager, gamble, or speculate on investments.

They brag, they boast, some of them actually tell the truth from time to time about their overall performance in the markets, whether their specialty be in stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies.

Claims by some that they have peculiar, timely, or otherwise savvy insights into the future - akin to soothsayers, fortune tellers and gypsy tarot card readers - are, as time goes by, either validated or proven worthless. A spotty track record is by no means a cause for shame or contrition. Rather, these various prognosticators continue to spew pablum, intending to coerce a generally ill-informed public that their positions are the ones that matter.

As the time until the general election dwindles to under two weeks, one thing the Wall Street elite have not - by and large - weighed in upon is the result of the presidential sweepstakes. That's probably for good reason. Like 95% of the general public, they aren't convinced of an outcome either in favor of Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, but, few have expressed their sentiments on what will happen after either is elected.

While there are those who say that the stock market will take a hit if Donald Trump is the next president, few, if any, figure that a Clinton win would be bad for investors. Oddly enough, almost nobody is saying the stock market will roar whichever candidate wins.

That's a perspective that is based largely on stock market returns and historical fact. According to this CNN story, since 1944, the direction of the stock market between August 1 and October 31 has correctly predicted the outcome of the election a stunning 82% of the time.

The metric is startlingly simple. If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party wins. If the market is down, the challenger is swept into office.

As of this writing, that measure favors Donald J. Trump, the challenger, but only slightly. On July 29, the final trading day prior to August 1, the S&P 500 stood at 2,173.60. It closed on Tuesday at 2143.16, about 1 1/2 percent off during the span.

There are three trading days left in the predicted period. It's possible that a strong rally could lift the averages back above the August 1 level, though it is beginning to appear more gloomy for Mrs. Clinton, the more the media bashes Trump and ignores the continuous, outrageous, potentially criminal behavior of the former First Lady and Secretary of State.

With the markets set to open in about a half hour, futures are lower. If this trend continues, get ready for a Trump presidency and the ascendancy of a moralistic, populist, business-first new regime in Washington.

Change at the top and across the political spectrum would likely be a boon to the majority of working Americans. After all, they're the ones that really matter, right?

Tuesday Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.27, -53.76 (-0.30%)

5,283.40, -26.43 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,143.16, -8.17 (-0.38%)

NYSE Composite
10,550.19, -41.12 (-0.39%)

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