Well, they've gone and done it.
The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives has voted - completely along party lines - to approve articles of impeachment, which at some point will go to the Senate, where President Donald J. Trump will almost certainly be acquitted in what figures to be a very short trial, with few witnesses, if any.
The reason the trial will be of small duration is because the Democrats, via Adam Schiff's Intelligence Committee, and Jerry Nadler's Judiciary Committee, have already ginned up enough "evidence" of Mr. Trump's supposed "Abuse of Power" and "Obstruction of Congress," that the senators don't really need to see or hear anything else. What they have before them is so flimsy, devoid of substance, and charges the president with actions that are not even crimes, that they will hopefully turn the matter out in a few days. Anything longer-lasting will be just more mud-slinging at a president who has done nothing wrong, certainly nothing even remotely impeachable.
Wednesday, December 18, 2019, was a sad day for the rule of law in the United States of America. The Democrats, led by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, have foisted upon the public a shameless exercise in partisan witch-baiting. The mainstream media deserves just as much public rancor as the House Democrats for not calling these partisan hacks out on their theatrics. This impeachment exercise has been and will continue to be a complete and utter waste of everybody's time. It will accomplish nothing, except possibly to finally rid the lower chamber of congress of the Democrat majority. In that regard, December 18 may end up going down in the history books of a glorious great day of change and retribution, dashing the Democrats into the dustbin of history.
Whatever one's politics, this impeachment fiasco never rose near to seriousness. It was always a goose-chase, a farcical enterprise foisted upon the public by rank amateurs who had nothing better to do with their times in office than to take out their frustrations in a most despicable manner. The Democrats may want to brand Republican supporters as "deplorables," but these cretins masquerading as respectable representatives of the public weal, are truly disgraceful. The sooner this all gets behind the American public, the better.
As far as a market reaction, there wasn't one, as the tiresome "debate" raged on in the House until after markets were closed for the day, though there might be some hint of derision come Thursday after the bell.
Trading has been sluggish, which it usually is in the "lull" week before Christmas, which took a back seat to politics this year. There isn't much with which to move markets. Everybody seems to want to head out of town for the holidays, sooner, rather than later, and who can blame them?
At the Close, Wednesday, December 18, 2019:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,239.28, -27.88 (-0.10%)
NASDAQ: 8,827.73, +4.38 (+0.05%)
S&P 500: 3,191.14, -1.38 (-0.04%)
NYSE Composite: 13,799.21, +3.86 (+0.03%)
Showing posts with label Donald J. Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Donald J. Trump. Show all posts
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Wednesday, August 14, 2019
Stocks Rally On Trump Tariff Turnback; PMs Slammed, Bonds Not Buying It As Curve Inverts
Tuesday's miraculous stock market rally was fueled by the silliest of news.
The US Trade Representative (USTR), led by Robert E. Lighthizer, announced the delay of some of the proposed tariffs to be imposed upon China come September 1, rolling back the date on some consumer-sensitive items to December 15.
The government also mentioned that trade reps from both countries would speak by phone in the near future.
Thus, stocks were off to the races, having been given a big, fat one to knock out of the park.
Obviously, such news only makes for one-day wonders on Wall Street and an opportunity to smack down real money - gold and silver - in the process. Precious metals had extended their rallies and were soaring overnight. Traders in the futures complex felt best to sell, all at once, apparently.
Meanwhile, short-dated treasuries were being whipsawed, with the yield on the 2-year note rising from 1.58% to 1.66%, while the 10-year note gained a smaller amount, the yield rising from 1.65% to 1.68%.
Overnight, as Tuesday turned to Wednesday in the US, the two-year yield briefly surpassed that of the 10-year by one basis point. This marks the first time the 2s-10s have inverted since 2005. Because such an inversion almost always indicates imminent recession, this spurred headlines across the financial media, with Yahoo Finance screaming in all caps, YIELD CURVE INVERTS.
One shouldn't get too excited about this startling, yet widely-anticipated event. Each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year, but in the most recent instance - December 27, 2005 - the recession didn't actually get underway until the third quarter of 2007, as precursor of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The last time there was an inverted 2s-10s yield curve was May 2007.
Naturally, haters of President Donald J. Trump are enthusiastically cheering for a recession prior to the 2020 elections, and they may get their wish. Stocks have been running on fumes for about 18 months, a bear market indicated by Dow Theory as far back as April 9, 2018.
The onset of recession, after the first instance of the 2s-10s inversion, normally occurs eight to 24 months hence.
With the hopes of Democrats taking back the White House riding on anything from Russian election interference to trade wars with China to recession, the leftists are pushing on various strings, hoping for something - anything - to trip up the celebrity president.
They have a 15-month lead time on recession, so their chances are about 50/50. If the recession occurs after the election, which Donald J. Trump will almost surely win, they may conclude that having a recession in ones' second term is an impeachable offense.
This story is developing, so watch something else.
[sarcasm noted]
The US Trade Representative (USTR), led by Robert E. Lighthizer, announced the delay of some of the proposed tariffs to be imposed upon China come September 1, rolling back the date on some consumer-sensitive items to December 15.
The government also mentioned that trade reps from both countries would speak by phone in the near future.
Thus, stocks were off to the races, having been given a big, fat one to knock out of the park.
Obviously, such news only makes for one-day wonders on Wall Street and an opportunity to smack down real money - gold and silver - in the process. Precious metals had extended their rallies and were soaring overnight. Traders in the futures complex felt best to sell, all at once, apparently.
Meanwhile, short-dated treasuries were being whipsawed, with the yield on the 2-year note rising from 1.58% to 1.66%, while the 10-year note gained a smaller amount, the yield rising from 1.65% to 1.68%.
Overnight, as Tuesday turned to Wednesday in the US, the two-year yield briefly surpassed that of the 10-year by one basis point. This marks the first time the 2s-10s have inverted since 2005. Because such an inversion almost always indicates imminent recession, this spurred headlines across the financial media, with Yahoo Finance screaming in all caps, YIELD CURVE INVERTS.
One shouldn't get too excited about this startling, yet widely-anticipated event. Each of the last seven recessions (dating back to 1969) were preceded by the 10-year falling below the 2-year, but in the most recent instance - December 27, 2005 - the recession didn't actually get underway until the third quarter of 2007, as precursor of the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). The last time there was an inverted 2s-10s yield curve was May 2007.
Naturally, haters of President Donald J. Trump are enthusiastically cheering for a recession prior to the 2020 elections, and they may get their wish. Stocks have been running on fumes for about 18 months, a bear market indicated by Dow Theory as far back as April 9, 2018.
The onset of recession, after the first instance of the 2s-10s inversion, normally occurs eight to 24 months hence.
With the hopes of Democrats taking back the White House riding on anything from Russian election interference to trade wars with China to recession, the leftists are pushing on various strings, hoping for something - anything - to trip up the celebrity president.
They have a 15-month lead time on recession, so their chances are about 50/50. If the recession occurs after the election, which Donald J. Trump will almost surely win, they may conclude that having a recession in ones' second term is an impeachable offense.
This story is developing, so watch something else.
[sarcasm noted]
Wednesday, October 3, 2018
Donald Trump Is Goldilocks In Disguise; Stocks Rally; Treasury Yields Rocket Higher
Odd thing about politics: As soon as one man comes into the picture promising to fix everything that's broken with the US economy, all the other politicians instantly hate him, fight him, and actively try to get rid of him... by any means necessary.
That man, of course, is none other than the current president, Donald J. Trump, who has fended off non-stop assaults from Democrats, members of his own party, even having to defend himself against attacks from within his own administration, such as the FBI and the Justice Department.
Meanwhile, Trump, while he hasn't kept all of his election promises, has delivered on a good number of them, especially those dealing with the economy, trade, and taxes.
Trump has cut taxes for many, he's re-negotiated bad trade deals such as NAFTA, and he's presided over an economy that by most accounts is booming.
Yet, the vast majority of politicians, bureaucrats, and Baltway insiders still want him gone. They'd love to impeach him, shame him into resigning, or otherwise undermine his America First policies.
Why?
Because they're jealous, and they're petty, and Trump has exposed them as swamp dwellers whose sole interests are enriching themselves at the public's expense and getting re-elected.
Trump has delivered - with assistance from the Federal Reserve and some members of congress - the United States into the goldilocks economy: not too hot, not too cold, just right. Stocks are up, yields on treasury bonds are rising, but inflation and unemployment are low. There's so much good going o in the US economy it's actually difficult to find problem areas.
401k accounts are fatter, paychecks have less tax taken from them, incomes are rising. Just what about all of this isn't to like? Ask Diane Feinstein, Chuck (sellout) Schumer, Nancy Pelosi or any of a handful of petty thieves masquerading as honorable congress-people. They have no answer and they're worried about losing their prestige and power in the upcoming mid-term elections. That's why they and their lackeys in the media are so intent on tearing down everything related to Trump and his successes. They accuse his Supreme Court nominee of sexual assault that supposedly happened more than 35 years ago, when Brett Kavenaugh - who will almost surely be confirmed by the Senate - was a teenager in high school.
The attacks and assaults will continue up to the November elections and beyond. Russia and collusion will be thumbed up again by the wicked special prosecutor from hell (and hopefully soon to return there). The New York Times will continue to run stories in vain attempts to tarnish President Trump's image. None of it will work. The American people see results and see through the media attacks, the howling senatorial rhetoric, and the baseless accusations. Jobs are plentiful. Money is flowing. Things are good, very good.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at yet another record high today, despite backing off substantially from intra-day highs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year-note reached the highest point in more than a decade, at 3.16%, a number that has Fed officials smiling, lenders beaming, and most consumers and small business owners a little bit piqued, but still not worried or upset. Interest rates are still low compared to other times; mortgages are reasonably priced. With business prosperity, the cost of money should be a little higher and it's not at a point that it does damage to one's bottom line.
Goldilocks has arrived and his name is Trump.
(Plus, baseball playoffs are underway and Alabama is #1 in college football.)
Dow Jones Industrial Average October Scorecard:
At the Close, Wednesday, October 3, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,828.39, +54.45 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 8,025.08, +25.54 (+0.32%)
S&P 500: 2,925.51, +2.08 (+0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 13,118.55, +12.54 (+0.10%)
That man, of course, is none other than the current president, Donald J. Trump, who has fended off non-stop assaults from Democrats, members of his own party, even having to defend himself against attacks from within his own administration, such as the FBI and the Justice Department.
Meanwhile, Trump, while he hasn't kept all of his election promises, has delivered on a good number of them, especially those dealing with the economy, trade, and taxes.
Trump has cut taxes for many, he's re-negotiated bad trade deals such as NAFTA, and he's presided over an economy that by most accounts is booming.
Yet, the vast majority of politicians, bureaucrats, and Baltway insiders still want him gone. They'd love to impeach him, shame him into resigning, or otherwise undermine his America First policies.
Why?
Because they're jealous, and they're petty, and Trump has exposed them as swamp dwellers whose sole interests are enriching themselves at the public's expense and getting re-elected.
Trump has delivered - with assistance from the Federal Reserve and some members of congress - the United States into the goldilocks economy: not too hot, not too cold, just right. Stocks are up, yields on treasury bonds are rising, but inflation and unemployment are low. There's so much good going o in the US economy it's actually difficult to find problem areas.
401k accounts are fatter, paychecks have less tax taken from them, incomes are rising. Just what about all of this isn't to like? Ask Diane Feinstein, Chuck (sellout) Schumer, Nancy Pelosi or any of a handful of petty thieves masquerading as honorable congress-people. They have no answer and they're worried about losing their prestige and power in the upcoming mid-term elections. That's why they and their lackeys in the media are so intent on tearing down everything related to Trump and his successes. They accuse his Supreme Court nominee of sexual assault that supposedly happened more than 35 years ago, when Brett Kavenaugh - who will almost surely be confirmed by the Senate - was a teenager in high school.
The attacks and assaults will continue up to the November elections and beyond. Russia and collusion will be thumbed up again by the wicked special prosecutor from hell (and hopefully soon to return there). The New York Times will continue to run stories in vain attempts to tarnish President Trump's image. None of it will work. The American people see results and see through the media attacks, the howling senatorial rhetoric, and the baseless accusations. Jobs are plentiful. Money is flowing. Things are good, very good.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at yet another record high today, despite backing off substantially from intra-day highs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year-note reached the highest point in more than a decade, at 3.16%, a number that has Fed officials smiling, lenders beaming, and most consumers and small business owners a little bit piqued, but still not worried or upset. Interest rates are still low compared to other times; mortgages are reasonably priced. With business prosperity, the cost of money should be a little higher and it's not at a point that it does damage to one's bottom line.
Goldilocks has arrived and his name is Trump.
(Plus, baseball playoffs are underway and Alabama is #1 in college football.)
Dow Jones Industrial Average October Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 10/1/18 | 26,651.21 | +192.90 | +192.90 |
| 10/2/18 | 26,773.94 | +122.73 | +315.63 |
| 10/3/18 | 26,828.39 | +54.45 | +370.08 |
At the Close, Wednesday, October 3, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,828.39, +54.45 (+0.20%)
NASDAQ: 8,025.08, +25.54 (+0.32%)
S&P 500: 2,925.51, +2.08 (+0.07%)
NYSE Composite: 13,118.55, +12.54 (+0.10%)
Monday, September 3, 2018
Weekend Wrap: Booming Economy, Gradual Inflation Boosts US Stocks
While the NASDAQ and S&P set multiple intra-day and closing records, the Dow continued its slow progress toward the January 26, all-time closing high of 26,616.71.
Once more, the NASDAQ led all indices in percentage terms, chalking up a two percent gain for the final week in August. The Dow finished up August with a second consecutive monthly gain (+557.29), though it was less than half of July's rise (+1143.78).
Despite two straight losing sessions, the Dow stands just 650 points away from the record.
The strategy being forwarded by the Trump administration has great appeal on Wall Street, as the summer saw many positive gains across all sectors despite efforts by the media to ignore or downplay the president's accomplishments Pointing up potential drawbacks from proposed and enacted tariffs on imports and negotiated trade deals with Mexico and Canada, the left-leaning TV and big-city newspaper media continue a vain attempt to discredit the election of Trump in 2016 via ongoing harassment by the fake Mueller investigation and countless talking heads from former administrations taking every opportunity to trash-talk the current occupant of the White House.
Thus, while the media and proponents of the left side of the political aisle promulgate a false narrative, Donald Trump and his team are actually moving forward on bold economic plans, rescuing America from over a decade of stagnation and building for a better future.
Official and unofficial sources confirm that the two-pronged assault via media and political character assassination are being called into question by US citizens. Seeing bigger paychecks, job openings everywhere and a dramatic decline in Washington war-mongering, the general public simply is not buying with the media, Democrats, and political shills are selling.
With the three-day Labor Day weekend marking an unofficial close to summer, many professional traders will be getting back to serious work approaching the next FOMC meeting (September 25-26). It's accepted that the policy meeting will produce another 25 basis point increase in the target federal funds rate, boosting it to 2.00-2.25%. The effective rate as of July was 1.91%. There is s normal lag between the target and effective rate of a few days or weeks on the lower end. Currently, the effective rate has been rising between the 1.75% and 2.00% target rate set in June.
Two big items on the Fed radar are inflation and the dollar. Having targeted two percent inflation as desirable, official data shows a slow but steady rise, approaching or even exceeding the goal. The strong dollar, however, is acting as a counterweight not only to inflation but to tariffs, the rising dollar able to purchase more foreign goods for the same amount of money.
The strong dollar, rising interest rates, and positive data on the US economy (4.2% GDP growth in the second quarter) offer the additional benefit of making the US the best place to invest, either in equities (growth) or fixed income (stability).
With one month remaining in the third quarter, the US economy engine seems to be operating on all cylinders. Any slowdown, even as predicted by a potential inverted yield curve, is still expected to be at least six months to over a year away. With that kind of time horizon, there's little concern on Wall Street over even the most expensive stocks, such as the FAANGs (Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOG) (Alphabet)), which continue to guide the NASDAQ to new highs.
Such strong speculative conditions should persist past the FOMC meeting into the fourth quarter. More than a few analysts had predicted a weaker second half of 2018, though those forecasts are likely to be tossed upon the scrapheap of financial history.
Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" jingo is sounding like sweet music to the ears of investors, a condition unlikely to change any time soon.
Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:
At the Close, Friday, August 31, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,964.82, -22.10 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 8,109.537, +21.174 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 2,901.52, +0.39 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 13,016.89, -23.04 (-0.18%)
For the Week:
Dow: +174.47 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: +163.56 (2.06%)
S&P 500: +26.83 (+0.93%)
NYSE Composite: +17.45 (+0.13%)
Once more, the NASDAQ led all indices in percentage terms, chalking up a two percent gain for the final week in August. The Dow finished up August with a second consecutive monthly gain (+557.29), though it was less than half of July's rise (+1143.78).
Despite two straight losing sessions, the Dow stands just 650 points away from the record.
The strategy being forwarded by the Trump administration has great appeal on Wall Street, as the summer saw many positive gains across all sectors despite efforts by the media to ignore or downplay the president's accomplishments Pointing up potential drawbacks from proposed and enacted tariffs on imports and negotiated trade deals with Mexico and Canada, the left-leaning TV and big-city newspaper media continue a vain attempt to discredit the election of Trump in 2016 via ongoing harassment by the fake Mueller investigation and countless talking heads from former administrations taking every opportunity to trash-talk the current occupant of the White House.
Thus, while the media and proponents of the left side of the political aisle promulgate a false narrative, Donald Trump and his team are actually moving forward on bold economic plans, rescuing America from over a decade of stagnation and building for a better future.
Official and unofficial sources confirm that the two-pronged assault via media and political character assassination are being called into question by US citizens. Seeing bigger paychecks, job openings everywhere and a dramatic decline in Washington war-mongering, the general public simply is not buying with the media, Democrats, and political shills are selling.
With the three-day Labor Day weekend marking an unofficial close to summer, many professional traders will be getting back to serious work approaching the next FOMC meeting (September 25-26). It's accepted that the policy meeting will produce another 25 basis point increase in the target federal funds rate, boosting it to 2.00-2.25%. The effective rate as of July was 1.91%. There is s normal lag between the target and effective rate of a few days or weeks on the lower end. Currently, the effective rate has been rising between the 1.75% and 2.00% target rate set in June.
Two big items on the Fed radar are inflation and the dollar. Having targeted two percent inflation as desirable, official data shows a slow but steady rise, approaching or even exceeding the goal. The strong dollar, however, is acting as a counterweight not only to inflation but to tariffs, the rising dollar able to purchase more foreign goods for the same amount of money.
The strong dollar, rising interest rates, and positive data on the US economy (4.2% GDP growth in the second quarter) offer the additional benefit of making the US the best place to invest, either in equities (growth) or fixed income (stability).
With one month remaining in the third quarter, the US economy engine seems to be operating on all cylinders. Any slowdown, even as predicted by a potential inverted yield curve, is still expected to be at least six months to over a year away. With that kind of time horizon, there's little concern on Wall Street over even the most expensive stocks, such as the FAANGs (Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Google (GOOG) (Alphabet)), which continue to guide the NASDAQ to new highs.
Such strong speculative conditions should persist past the FOMC meeting into the fourth quarter. More than a few analysts had predicted a weaker second half of 2018, though those forecasts are likely to be tossed upon the scrapheap of financial history.
Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" jingo is sounding like sweet music to the ears of investors, a condition unlikely to change any time soon.
Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 8/1/18 | 25,333.82 | -81.37 | -81.37 |
| 8/2/18 | 25,326.16 | -7.66 | -89.03 |
| 8/3/18 | 25,462.58 | +136.42 | +55.05 |
| 8/6/18 | 25,502.18 | +39.60 | +94.65 |
| 8/7/18 | 25,628.91 | +126.73 | +221.38 |
| 8/8/18 | 25,583.75 | -45.16 | +176.22 |
| 8/9/18 | 25,509.23 | -74.52 | +101.70 |
| 8/10/18 | 25,313.14 | -196.09 | -94.39 |
| 8/13/18 | 25,187.70 | -125.44 | -219.83 |
| 8/14/18 | 25,299.92 | +112.22 | -107.61 |
| 8/15/18 | 25,162.41 | -137.51 | -245.12 |
| 8/16/18 | 25,558.73 | +396.32 | +151.20 |
| 8/17/18 | 25,669.32 | +110.59 | +261.79 |
| 8/20/18 | 25,758.69 | +89.37 | +351.16 |
| 8/21/18 | 25,822.29 | +63.60 | +414.76 |
| 8/22/18 | 25,733.60 | -88.69 | +326.07 |
| 8/23/18 | 25,656.98 | -76.62 | +249.45 |
| 8/24/18 | 25,790.35 | +133.37 | +382.82 |
| 8/27/18 | 26,049.64 | +259.29 | +642.11 |
| 8/28/18 | 26,064.02 | +14.38 | +656.49 |
| 8/29/18 | 26,124.57 | +60.55 | +717.04 |
| 8/30/18 | 25,986.92 | -137.65 | +579.39 |
| 8/31/18 | 25,964.82 | -22.10 | +557.29 |
At the Close, Friday, August 31, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,964.82, -22.10 (-0.09%)
NASDAQ: 8,109.537, +21.174 (+0.26%)
S&P 500: 2,901.52, +0.39 (+0.01%)
NYSE Composite: 13,016.89, -23.04 (-0.18%)
For the Week:
Dow: +174.47 (+0.68%)
NASDAQ: +163.56 (2.06%)
S&P 500: +26.83 (+0.93%)
NYSE Composite: +17.45 (+0.13%)
Wednesday, August 8, 2018
Stocks Charge Ahead; Dow At Highest Level Since February
With the bull market less than three weeks from being the longest ever in US financial history stocks moved forward as the main indices ramped higher in tandem.
The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since January while the Dow finished the session at a six-month high. The last time the Dow was higher was February 26 (25,709.27) as the industrials snapped back from a wicked decline earlier in the month.
The NASDAQ, which recently has taken on losses due to companies like Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA), gained to within 50 points of its all-time high, set on July 26, at 7932.34.
All of this is happening against a backdrop of a vacationing congress, a booming economy, low unemployment, and the third rate hike of the year by the Federal Reserve on schedule for late September. The FOMC meets September 25-26, and is widely anticipated to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, to 2-2.25%.
Investors are taking an approach to stocks that is largely ignoring high valuations on the back of impressive recent returns.
While warnings that stocks are overpriced have been circulating since mid-2014, the market seems content to add to gains relentlessly, without regard to underlying fundamentals.
The wild card for stocks is the political front. On the one hand, President Trump's policies seem to have ushered in a fresh era of confidence in the US economy, while on the other, his opponents on the left continue to harass and harangue his administration.
To his credit, Mr. Trump has continued to implement policies he promised during his 2016 campaign of "Make America Great Again," while his Democrat opposition has largely been engaged in pure obstructionism against his positive message.
Where markets go from here are, naturally, unpredictable, though there's little doubt that most of the betting is on higher equity prices in the near term.
Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:
At the Close, Tuesday, August 7, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,628.91, +126.73 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: 7,883.66, +23.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,858.45, +8.05 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 12,999.59, +35.32 (+0.27%)
The S&P 500 closed at its highest level since January while the Dow finished the session at a six-month high. The last time the Dow was higher was February 26 (25,709.27) as the industrials snapped back from a wicked decline earlier in the month.
The NASDAQ, which recently has taken on losses due to companies like Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA), gained to within 50 points of its all-time high, set on July 26, at 7932.34.
All of this is happening against a backdrop of a vacationing congress, a booming economy, low unemployment, and the third rate hike of the year by the Federal Reserve on schedule for late September. The FOMC meets September 25-26, and is widely anticipated to raise the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points, to 2-2.25%.
Investors are taking an approach to stocks that is largely ignoring high valuations on the back of impressive recent returns.
While warnings that stocks are overpriced have been circulating since mid-2014, the market seems content to add to gains relentlessly, without regard to underlying fundamentals.
The wild card for stocks is the political front. On the one hand, President Trump's policies seem to have ushered in a fresh era of confidence in the US economy, while on the other, his opponents on the left continue to harass and harangue his administration.
To his credit, Mr. Trump has continued to implement policies he promised during his 2016 campaign of "Make America Great Again," while his Democrat opposition has largely been engaged in pure obstructionism against his positive message.
Where markets go from here are, naturally, unpredictable, though there's little doubt that most of the betting is on higher equity prices in the near term.
Dow Jones Industrial Average August Scorecard:
| Date | Close | Gain/Loss | Cum. G/L |
| 8/1/18 | 25,333.82 | -81.37 | -81.37 |
| 8/2/18 | 25,326.16 | -7.66 | -89.03 |
| 8/3/18 | 25,462.58 | +136.42 | +55.05 |
| 8/6/18 | 25,502.18 | +39.60 | +94.65 |
| 8/7/18 | 25,628.91 | +126.73 | +221.38 |
At the Close, Tuesday, August 7, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25,628.91, +126.73 (+0.50%)
NASDAQ: 7,883.66, +23.99 (+0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,858.45, +8.05 (+0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 12,999.59, +35.32 (+0.27%)
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Stocks Rocked, Presdient Trump Stick-Saves with SOTU
There shouldn't be too much in the way of analysis seeking a rationale for Tuesday's smash-crash in global equity markets.
With treasury's 10-year-note rocking beyond 2.70%, bonds are coming back into favor as investments with little risk, as opposed to over-inflated stocks buoyed by buybacks.
Profit-taking being mostly a participant sport, sellers piled into the pits, sending previously-favored issues down for a second straight session. After the markets closed for the day, life returned to some semblance of normalcy, awaiting disruption, caused primarily by President Trump's stirring State of the Union speech (and the pouting Democrats lack of response).
Trump delivered for his base, as usual, leaving a feeble Joe Kennedy III drooling out the Democrat response, a vain, ineffective attempt to continue undermining the administration's attempts to bring America back to a place of dominance, reverence, and prosperity.
The shock-selling on Monday and Tuesday should likely fade as business continues gearing up, though the path will be made more difficult for the Fortune 500 types as interest rates ascend.
Perhaps investing will return from an overcrowded type of algo-chasing, bid-stuffing, front-running mosh pit to a semi-science based on math skills, management, and fundamental analysis.
Perhaps it will not, but, by all outward appearances, President Trump, at least has the right kind of ideas to move the country - and industry - forward.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 30, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,076.89, -362.59 (-1.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,402.48, -64.02 (-0.86%)
S&P 500: 2,822.43, -31.10 (-1.09%)
NYSE Composite: 13,375.51, -149.14 (-1.10%)
With treasury's 10-year-note rocking beyond 2.70%, bonds are coming back into favor as investments with little risk, as opposed to over-inflated stocks buoyed by buybacks.
Profit-taking being mostly a participant sport, sellers piled into the pits, sending previously-favored issues down for a second straight session. After the markets closed for the day, life returned to some semblance of normalcy, awaiting disruption, caused primarily by President Trump's stirring State of the Union speech (and the pouting Democrats lack of response).
Trump delivered for his base, as usual, leaving a feeble Joe Kennedy III drooling out the Democrat response, a vain, ineffective attempt to continue undermining the administration's attempts to bring America back to a place of dominance, reverence, and prosperity.
The shock-selling on Monday and Tuesday should likely fade as business continues gearing up, though the path will be made more difficult for the Fortune 500 types as interest rates ascend.
Perhaps investing will return from an overcrowded type of algo-chasing, bid-stuffing, front-running mosh pit to a semi-science based on math skills, management, and fundamental analysis.
Perhaps it will not, but, by all outward appearances, President Trump, at least has the right kind of ideas to move the country - and industry - forward.
At the Close, Tuesday, January 30, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26,076.89, -362.59 (-1.37%)
NASDAQ: 7,402.48, -64.02 (-0.86%)
S&P 500: 2,822.43, -31.10 (-1.09%)
NYSE Composite: 13,375.51, -149.14 (-1.10%)
Tuesday, January 30, 2018
Wall Street's Monday Blood-Letting Leads to Global Calamity in Equities
US equity markets were roiled Monday as the dollar jumped and bonds sold off, pushing yields higher, especially on the short end of the curve.
The two-year treasury finished the day at 2.09%, the five at 2.47%, and the benchmark ten-year note briefly touched 2.70% before dipping back to 2.68%. For perspective, consider that the five-year treasury was yielding 2.19% and the ten-year, 2.39, just a month ago. Those are significant moves and, apparently, the stock market has now taken notice as fixed investments begin offering yields competitive with stock dividends, at least.
For more perspective, the S&P and Dow averages suffered their worst one-day drops since early September. The percentage was just two-thirds of a percent on both indices. That shows just how decisive the rally since the election of Donald J. Trump as president has been. There has not been on single-day one percent decline on either in well over a year.
If a sea change in sentiment is occurring, Tuesday's trade could be a determinant day. Futures are pointing well lower and the VIX is cresting over 14 in the US, while global markets are a sea of red.
Japan's NIKKEI was down nearly 1.5%. The Hang Song was off over one percent. European bourses are uniformly lower at their midday.
As the nation prepares for President Trump's first State of the Union speech Tuesday night, more focus could be on internal DC politics, especially the readying for release of the troubling, explosive memo penned by the House Intelligence committee.
On Monday, the Intel committee voted along party lines to declassify the four-page missive. The president has five days to release the memo or keep it classified. Opinion and timing see Thursday as the likely eventual release.
With the FOMC set to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday (the meeting opens Tuesday), that may be the only thing that doesn't change this week.
At the Close, Monday, January 29, 2018:
Dow: 26,439.48, -177.23 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,466.51, -39.27 (-0.52%)
S&P 500: 2,853.53, -19.34 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,524.65, -112.37 (-0.82%)
The two-year treasury finished the day at 2.09%, the five at 2.47%, and the benchmark ten-year note briefly touched 2.70% before dipping back to 2.68%. For perspective, consider that the five-year treasury was yielding 2.19% and the ten-year, 2.39, just a month ago. Those are significant moves and, apparently, the stock market has now taken notice as fixed investments begin offering yields competitive with stock dividends, at least.
For more perspective, the S&P and Dow averages suffered their worst one-day drops since early September. The percentage was just two-thirds of a percent on both indices. That shows just how decisive the rally since the election of Donald J. Trump as president has been. There has not been on single-day one percent decline on either in well over a year.
If a sea change in sentiment is occurring, Tuesday's trade could be a determinant day. Futures are pointing well lower and the VIX is cresting over 14 in the US, while global markets are a sea of red.
Japan's NIKKEI was down nearly 1.5%. The Hang Song was off over one percent. European bourses are uniformly lower at their midday.
As the nation prepares for President Trump's first State of the Union speech Tuesday night, more focus could be on internal DC politics, especially the readying for release of the troubling, explosive memo penned by the House Intelligence committee.
On Monday, the Intel committee voted along party lines to declassify the four-page missive. The president has five days to release the memo or keep it classified. Opinion and timing see Thursday as the likely eventual release.
With the FOMC set to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday (the meeting opens Tuesday), that may be the only thing that doesn't change this week.
At the Close, Monday, January 29, 2018:
Dow: 26,439.48, -177.23 (-0.67%)
NASDAQ: 7,466.51, -39.27 (-0.52%)
S&P 500: 2,853.53, -19.34 (-0.67%)
NYSE Composite: 13,524.65, -112.37 (-0.82%)
Monday, January 29, 2018
Stocks Soar Through January; Big Week Upcoming
Stocks staged their best cumulative effort of the new year, as January equity returns continued to explode through the final full week of trading in the United States.
Making the gains all the more impressive is the fact that the month has seen only 18 out of a possible 20 trading days, due to the New Year and MLK holidays falling on Mondays. Three more sessions to start the new week will conclude January trading.
Stocks have been the major story of the year thus far, along with the continued decline of the US dollar against other major currencies, especially the Yen, Euro and British Pound.
President Donald J. Trump returned from Davos over the weekend, preparing for his first State of the Unions address to congress on Tuesday night.
Also of note this week is the FOMC policy rate meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is not expected to raise key interest rates at this meeting, there's general impetus for a planned rate hike at the March meeting. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, January 30 and 31. The March meeting is March 20-21.
The week concludes with the January Non-farm Payroll release by the BLS on Friday, Feb. 2. The data release includes publication changes related to the annual sample review and the conversion to NAICS 2017.. Expectations will be high, given the explosive nature of the stock market and recent touting of strong economic growth by President Trump.
At the Close, Friday, January 26, 2018:
Dow: 26,616.71, +223.92 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 7,505.77, +94.61 (+1.28%)
S&P 500: 2,872.87, +33.62 (+1.18%)
NYSE Composite: 13,637.02, +124.36 (+0.92%)
For the Week:
Dow: +544.99 (+2.09%)
NASDAQ: +169.39 (+2.31%)
S&P 500: +62.57 (+2.23%)
NYSE Composite: +252.56 (+1.89%)
Making the gains all the more impressive is the fact that the month has seen only 18 out of a possible 20 trading days, due to the New Year and MLK holidays falling on Mondays. Three more sessions to start the new week will conclude January trading.
Stocks have been the major story of the year thus far, along with the continued decline of the US dollar against other major currencies, especially the Yen, Euro and British Pound.
President Donald J. Trump returned from Davos over the weekend, preparing for his first State of the Unions address to congress on Tuesday night.
Also of note this week is the FOMC policy rate meeting of the Federal Reserve. While the Fed is not expected to raise key interest rates at this meeting, there's general impetus for a planned rate hike at the March meeting. The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, January 30 and 31. The March meeting is March 20-21.
The week concludes with the January Non-farm Payroll release by the BLS on Friday, Feb. 2. The data release includes publication changes related to the annual sample review and the conversion to NAICS 2017.. Expectations will be high, given the explosive nature of the stock market and recent touting of strong economic growth by President Trump.
At the Close, Friday, January 26, 2018:
Dow: 26,616.71, +223.92 (+0.85%)
NASDAQ: 7,505.77, +94.61 (+1.28%)
S&P 500: 2,872.87, +33.62 (+1.18%)
NYSE Composite: 13,637.02, +124.36 (+0.92%)
For the Week:
Dow: +544.99 (+2.09%)
NASDAQ: +169.39 (+2.31%)
S&P 500: +62.57 (+2.23%)
NYSE Composite: +252.56 (+1.89%)
Monday, September 25, 2017
Stocks Drop, Gold, Silver Soar, NFL Ratings Tank
Less than a week after the Fed committed to selling off their hoard of toxic and subprime bond "assets," stocks are down, gold and silver are up and the NFL is imploding.
None of this is coincidence. The market rally has run its course, as phony as it always was. US dominance in global currency markets - as the reserve currency - is waning. Gold and silver and hard assets will become more and more valued as economies adjust to the new realities of a bi-polar (East vs. West) global economic paradigm.
There is no stopping the forces that have been at work for a long time. The United States has squandered its treasure, the US government is ineffective, emasculated, and impotent. The rest of the world has tired of US domination, just like sports fans have tired of boring games complete with bold-faced, meaningless protests by millionaires on the sidelines and on the field.
A great reset is coming because working Americans are not happy. They toil and cannot save. They work only to see their paychecks taxed and exploited by government programs - from horrible attempts at education to crumbling infrastructure - and they are told to shut up and pay up, so now they are fed up.
If you're one of the millions of Americans who have had their pay stagnate, their credit cards and social security numbers left unprotected and hacked, and who have seen their money pay for social welfare programs that are designed only to enrich the status quo and keep the recipients on the dole, then you know the score.
It's why Donald J. Trump won the presidency. It's why Hillary Clinton is a whiner and sore loser. It's why the left is fighting so hard to continue their wasteful policies, but there's no going back. Change is in the wind.
Get used to days like this one in the stock market. This is only the beginning.
At the close, Monday, September 25, 2017:
Dow: 22,296.09, -53.50 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,370.59, -56.33 (-0.88%)
S&P 500: 2,496.66, -5.56 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 12,141.60, -10.23 (-0.08%)
None of this is coincidence. The market rally has run its course, as phony as it always was. US dominance in global currency markets - as the reserve currency - is waning. Gold and silver and hard assets will become more and more valued as economies adjust to the new realities of a bi-polar (East vs. West) global economic paradigm.
There is no stopping the forces that have been at work for a long time. The United States has squandered its treasure, the US government is ineffective, emasculated, and impotent. The rest of the world has tired of US domination, just like sports fans have tired of boring games complete with bold-faced, meaningless protests by millionaires on the sidelines and on the field.
A great reset is coming because working Americans are not happy. They toil and cannot save. They work only to see their paychecks taxed and exploited by government programs - from horrible attempts at education to crumbling infrastructure - and they are told to shut up and pay up, so now they are fed up.
If you're one of the millions of Americans who have had their pay stagnate, their credit cards and social security numbers left unprotected and hacked, and who have seen their money pay for social welfare programs that are designed only to enrich the status quo and keep the recipients on the dole, then you know the score.
It's why Donald J. Trump won the presidency. It's why Hillary Clinton is a whiner and sore loser. It's why the left is fighting so hard to continue their wasteful policies, but there's no going back. Change is in the wind.
Get used to days like this one in the stock market. This is only the beginning.
At the close, Monday, September 25, 2017:
Dow: 22,296.09, -53.50 (-0.24%)
NASDAQ: 6,370.59, -56.33 (-0.88%)
S&P 500: 2,496.66, -5.56 (-0.22%)
NYSE Composite: 12,141.60, -10.23 (-0.08%)
Tuesday, September 5, 2017
Bonds Don't Lie As Risk Rears Ugly Head At Stocks
Sooner or later, all good things come to an end, and it appears that the 101 month bull run in US equities is just about over.
All things considered, from global uncertainty (think North Korea, and immigration, currently) to underfunded pensions (about half of the states' public retirement funds) to the upcoming debate over the debt ceiling and nothing looks really positive about the American economy, the same one that has limped along at less than three percent annual growth for almost nine years.
Last Friday's miss on the non-farm payroll data certainly didn't help matters on Monday as once-giddy speculators were morose and confused, many seeking the safety of bonds.
While a somewhat ugly day for stocks, bonds were bid with gusto, the 10-year note getting so much action it hit its lowest yield since two days after Trump's election, crashing to 2.06%, on what turned out to be the best day for bond bulls since Brexit (June, 2016). It's fairly obvious by now that the benchmark 10-year will be yielding below two percent soon, the level it was occupying prior to the surprise presidential election of Donald J. Trump.
In an odd way, stock pickers may have an opening or two. Since bond yields are horrible, stocks, though vastly overvalued, may be worthwhile investments for those willing to take the risk. On the other hand, there may not be many stocks which are able to perform well through a prolonged recession, possible debt defaults around the world and a demographic nightmare that makes all other metrics pale by comparison.
Spoken of before in this space, the demographic dilemma cannot be understated. All of the developed nations are aging, starting with Japan and Germany, and older people simply do not spend as much or with as much frequency as younger folks. Aging populations are settled in their ways, move slowly (if at all) and are very conscious of their spending habits, many of them on fixed incomes.
That said, inflation is virtually impossible, pricing power for companies difficult if at all attainable. All that's left is financial engineering, cooking the books and keeping the creditors in the dark or off the doorstep.
Even the mighty Dow Industrials slipped again, for the ninth time in the last 20 sessions. The popular index is down more than 500 points over that span.
Precious metals also had a solid day, again, continuing the trend begun mid-August.
Stocks have crossed the rubicon.
At the Close, 9/5/17:
Dow: 21,753.31, -234.25 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,375.57, -59.76 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 2,457.85, -18.70 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,827.15, -90.93 (-0.76%)
All things considered, from global uncertainty (think North Korea, and immigration, currently) to underfunded pensions (about half of the states' public retirement funds) to the upcoming debate over the debt ceiling and nothing looks really positive about the American economy, the same one that has limped along at less than three percent annual growth for almost nine years.
Last Friday's miss on the non-farm payroll data certainly didn't help matters on Monday as once-giddy speculators were morose and confused, many seeking the safety of bonds.
While a somewhat ugly day for stocks, bonds were bid with gusto, the 10-year note getting so much action it hit its lowest yield since two days after Trump's election, crashing to 2.06%, on what turned out to be the best day for bond bulls since Brexit (June, 2016). It's fairly obvious by now that the benchmark 10-year will be yielding below two percent soon, the level it was occupying prior to the surprise presidential election of Donald J. Trump.
In an odd way, stock pickers may have an opening or two. Since bond yields are horrible, stocks, though vastly overvalued, may be worthwhile investments for those willing to take the risk. On the other hand, there may not be many stocks which are able to perform well through a prolonged recession, possible debt defaults around the world and a demographic nightmare that makes all other metrics pale by comparison.
Spoken of before in this space, the demographic dilemma cannot be understated. All of the developed nations are aging, starting with Japan and Germany, and older people simply do not spend as much or with as much frequency as younger folks. Aging populations are settled in their ways, move slowly (if at all) and are very conscious of their spending habits, many of them on fixed incomes.
That said, inflation is virtually impossible, pricing power for companies difficult if at all attainable. All that's left is financial engineering, cooking the books and keeping the creditors in the dark or off the doorstep.
Even the mighty Dow Industrials slipped again, for the ninth time in the last 20 sessions. The popular index is down more than 500 points over that span.
Precious metals also had a solid day, again, continuing the trend begun mid-August.
Stocks have crossed the rubicon.
At the Close, 9/5/17:
Dow: 21,753.31, -234.25 (-1.07%)
NASDAQ: 6,375.57, -59.76 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 2,457.85, -18.70 (-0.76%)
NYSE Composite: 11,827.15, -90.93 (-0.76%)
Monday, June 26, 2017
Target Zero: NASDAQ Unlucky in Lift-Off Sell-Off (Pump and Dump)
It wasn't a very pretty day for the moneychangers traders of paper stocks.
Nor was it particularly pleasing for goldbugs to see the precious metals smashed down around 4:00 am ET, but, then again, when it comes to gold manipulation, it's best to do it when most people are sleeping.
Theses manipulated markets are nearing the end of their central bank lifelines, though it is difficult to comprehend how the Fed, ECB, SNB, BOJ and others would pull the proverbial rug out all at the same time.
Therefore, a crash probably isn't in the cards, unless one is playing the political angle. In that scenario, we have the media and Democrats losing their war against President Donald J. Trump, who continues to steamroll over the Washington insider elite as though they ceased to matter after January 20th of this year.
In some ways, the Donald is right. Washington insiders and the mainstream media don't matter in the grand scheme of things, most of which revolves around MONEY.
Regarding that, stocks ramped pre-market, then sold off throughout the session. Oil finished flat. Gold and silver were hammered, as mentioned above, in a pre-dawn raid of the phony futures market, but mostly recovered. The major equity indices finished flat on the main, except for the NASDAQ, which took on some water.
Macro data had US durable goods orders down 1.1% in May after a 0.9% loss in April. That, in part, spurred the sell-off after lift-off in stocks.
Stocks are certainly being kept afloat by central banks and crony commercial banks. There's nothing even remotely normal about how stocks have been behaving since the great recession off 2008-09, but just in case anybody asks, the spread on treasuries - 2s and 30s - tumbled again to 134bps - marking the flattest treasury yield curve since late 2007.
Recession is overdue, which means the US economy is probably already in one. Pension holders and 401k dreamers will be the last ones to know.
At The Close, 6/26/17:
Dow: 21,409.55, +14.79 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 6,247.15, -18.10 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 2,439.07, +0.77 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,758.86, +25.66 (0.22%)
Nor was it particularly pleasing for goldbugs to see the precious metals smashed down around 4:00 am ET, but, then again, when it comes to gold manipulation, it's best to do it when most people are sleeping.
Theses manipulated markets are nearing the end of their central bank lifelines, though it is difficult to comprehend how the Fed, ECB, SNB, BOJ and others would pull the proverbial rug out all at the same time.
Therefore, a crash probably isn't in the cards, unless one is playing the political angle. In that scenario, we have the media and Democrats losing their war against President Donald J. Trump, who continues to steamroll over the Washington insider elite as though they ceased to matter after January 20th of this year.
In some ways, the Donald is right. Washington insiders and the mainstream media don't matter in the grand scheme of things, most of which revolves around MONEY.
Regarding that, stocks ramped pre-market, then sold off throughout the session. Oil finished flat. Gold and silver were hammered, as mentioned above, in a pre-dawn raid of the phony futures market, but mostly recovered. The major equity indices finished flat on the main, except for the NASDAQ, which took on some water.
Macro data had US durable goods orders down 1.1% in May after a 0.9% loss in April. That, in part, spurred the sell-off after lift-off in stocks.
Stocks are certainly being kept afloat by central banks and crony commercial banks. There's nothing even remotely normal about how stocks have been behaving since the great recession off 2008-09, but just in case anybody asks, the spread on treasuries - 2s and 30s - tumbled again to 134bps - marking the flattest treasury yield curve since late 2007.
Recession is overdue, which means the US economy is probably already in one. Pension holders and 401k dreamers will be the last ones to know.
At The Close, 6/26/17:
Dow: 21,409.55, +14.79 (0.07%)
NASDAQ 6,247.15, -18.10 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 2,439.07, +0.77 (0.03%)
NYSE Composite: 11,758.86, +25.66 (0.22%)
Wednesday, April 26, 2017
Stocks Rally As No Government Shutdown Seen; NASDAQ At Record High
Closing at as record high, the NASDAQ powered through the 6000 mark while the Dow and S&P 500 had their best back-to-back sessions of the year.
Investors appear to be pleased with the progress in Washington toward a peaceful resolution to the budget, in which the congress must fund the government by Friday night or be forced to close down parts of the federal apparatus.
Key to the negotiation has been President Trump's masterful handling of the situation, saying he can wait until later in the year to get congress to partially fund the building of the wall between Mexico and the United States on the US southern border. Democrats have already cried wolf over the measly $1.3 billion that would need to be appropriated to get the project into planning stage. Trump, knowing that a government shutdown would be blamed on Republicans, backed off his demands in order to attain at least a limited peace with the obstructionist Democrats.
This master stroke by Trump left investors giddy with confidence that the government will function without interruption. Also aiding the rally was a spate of earnings, notably by McDonald's, which suggested the economy is on a solid, growing footing.
Though the bull market which began in March of 2009 seems to be getting long in the tooth, the expansion due to Trump policies may just be starting.
At the Close, Tuesday, April 25, 2017:
Dow: 20,996.12, +232.23 (1.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,025.49, +41.67 (0.70%)
S&P 500: 2,388.61, +14.46 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 11,603.28, +71.49 (0.62%)
Investors appear to be pleased with the progress in Washington toward a peaceful resolution to the budget, in which the congress must fund the government by Friday night or be forced to close down parts of the federal apparatus.
Key to the negotiation has been President Trump's masterful handling of the situation, saying he can wait until later in the year to get congress to partially fund the building of the wall between Mexico and the United States on the US southern border. Democrats have already cried wolf over the measly $1.3 billion that would need to be appropriated to get the project into planning stage. Trump, knowing that a government shutdown would be blamed on Republicans, backed off his demands in order to attain at least a limited peace with the obstructionist Democrats.
This master stroke by Trump left investors giddy with confidence that the government will function without interruption. Also aiding the rally was a spate of earnings, notably by McDonald's, which suggested the economy is on a solid, growing footing.
Though the bull market which began in March of 2009 seems to be getting long in the tooth, the expansion due to Trump policies may just be starting.
At the Close, Tuesday, April 25, 2017:
Dow: 20,996.12, +232.23 (1.12%)
NASDAQ: 6,025.49, +41.67 (0.70%)
S&P 500: 2,388.61, +14.46 (0.61%)
NYSE Composite: 11,603.28, +71.49 (0.62%)
Wednesday, March 22, 2017
America And The World Approaches The Brink Of Disaster
Let's get back to business here.
Whether or not anybody wishes to admit or observe it, America is in the midst of a crisis of almost unimaginable proportions.
We have a federal government teetering on complete disintegration over a variety of issues, including, but surely not limited to: the repeal/replacement of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or ObamaCare); a runaway, subversive intelligence community; a Democrat party that is intent upon destroying the presidency of Donald Trump and thwarting him at every opportunity, with capable assistance from the fake media establishment in the guise of the New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, ABC and especially CNN (Criminally Neurotic Network); a Treasury nearly $20 trillion in debt and congress not even close to any agreement on any kind of fiscal budget or even discussion of such as the debt ceiling is being superceded.
There's more with which to deal, like crime, illegal aliens, Trump's temporary immigration ban, terrorism and such, but the issues before our broken congress are the main drivers taking the nation to the brink of disaster and quite possibly over the edge.
Not wishing to sound too pessimistic concerning the current state of affairs in the former land of the free, individual freedoms are at the core of what ails this country. If anything can be accomplished by our elected representatives, it would be first to repeal the Affordable Care Act, or, at the very least, permanently remove the individual mandate that requires every taxpayer to purchase health care or face increasingly punitive fines for failing to comply.
As it stands, the IRS is reportedly not enforcing the "law", conforming to President Trump's first Executive Order, issued on the day of his inauguration, in which he instructed all federal agencies "to exercise authority and discretion available to them to reduce potential burden..."
So, we have lawlessness being visibly encouraged, though it is directed against a law, the ACA, that carries within it, in the form of the individual mandate, a certain unconstitutionality, codified by a corrupted federal judiciary, i.e., the Supreme Court. Incidentally, that same Supreme Court is hopeless, deadlocked with eight justices, until, perhaps, the Senate decides to confirm the President's nominee, Neil Gorsuch, to take the positioned vacated by the late Antonin Scalia.
While Washington continues to devolve and approach the gates of hell, apparently driving chariots of fire, like gawkers and bookmakers, Wall Street insiders drives the market up, down, sideways and to its breaking point. The entire retail sector - with Sears leading the charge - is collapsing. Radio Shack recently re-entered bankruptcy, hopefully for the final time, and Payless Shoes is on the block. Malls across America are fast becoming nothing more than exercise walking routes for seniors rather than the shopping "experiences" for which they were designed.
We are changing, but we are not growing. The bulk of any profit is eaten alive by taxes, regulations, corporate executives, hackers and other thieves. In the end, there's little left for the common man.
And that's a crying shame, because the common man (and woman) is the person who built the country, who made it great, who is watching it self-destruct and who has nothing to do with the great default that is upon us.
The government is the problem, and seeking solutions from that very same government, be it federal, state, or local, is not a winning strategy. We will only get more of the same, and the same will only sink the nation further into the morass of stupidity, overspending, and normalcy bias with which we are currently plagued.
Our current malaise is not a democrat or republican issue. It is not liberal nor conservative. It is purely greed, avarice and corruption at every level that has besieged our once-great nation and if ever the United States of America is going to become - as the current resident of the White House proposes - great again, we must begin to call out the corrupt, the purposefully vague, the unequivocally deceitful, rapacious legislators and governors and bureaucrats that have lain waste to our nation, and all those who either back them, encourage them, enable them or act as apologists for them.
We are as close to systemic breakdown in our culture, our politic, and our economy than at any time since World War II, and that is a frightening prospect. More frightening, however, is the idea, the very concept, that ordinary people expect positive results from the very people who promulgated the predicament in the first place.
If Mr. Trump, the preeminent deal-maker of this generation, is unable to come to grips and compromise with the congress and the judiciary, it's likely that all that America has stood for will have been for naught, for we will bear witness to the destruction of the world's greatest constitutional republic in history.
But, if the wise and courageous among us will act, the destruction may yet be avoided. We face the fight of our lives over the next few years, and we cannot afford to fail.
It's not just economy at stake, but liberty and life.
Whether or not anybody wishes to admit or observe it, America is in the midst of a crisis of almost unimaginable proportions.
We have a federal government teetering on complete disintegration over a variety of issues, including, but surely not limited to: the repeal/replacement of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or ObamaCare); a runaway, subversive intelligence community; a Democrat party that is intent upon destroying the presidency of Donald Trump and thwarting him at every opportunity, with capable assistance from the fake media establishment in the guise of the New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, NBC, MSNBC, CBS, ABC and especially CNN (Criminally Neurotic Network); a Treasury nearly $20 trillion in debt and congress not even close to any agreement on any kind of fiscal budget or even discussion of such as the debt ceiling is being superceded.
There's more with which to deal, like crime, illegal aliens, Trump's temporary immigration ban, terrorism and such, but the issues before our broken congress are the main drivers taking the nation to the brink of disaster and quite possibly over the edge.
Not wishing to sound too pessimistic concerning the current state of affairs in the former land of the free, individual freedoms are at the core of what ails this country. If anything can be accomplished by our elected representatives, it would be first to repeal the Affordable Care Act, or, at the very least, permanently remove the individual mandate that requires every taxpayer to purchase health care or face increasingly punitive fines for failing to comply.
As it stands, the IRS is reportedly not enforcing the "law", conforming to President Trump's first Executive Order, issued on the day of his inauguration, in which he instructed all federal agencies "to exercise authority and discretion available to them to reduce potential burden..."
The more corrupt the state, the more numerous the laws.-- Tacitus, The Annals of Imperial Rome
So, we have lawlessness being visibly encouraged, though it is directed against a law, the ACA, that carries within it, in the form of the individual mandate, a certain unconstitutionality, codified by a corrupted federal judiciary, i.e., the Supreme Court. Incidentally, that same Supreme Court is hopeless, deadlocked with eight justices, until, perhaps, the Senate decides to confirm the President's nominee, Neil Gorsuch, to take the positioned vacated by the late Antonin Scalia.
While Washington continues to devolve and approach the gates of hell, apparently driving chariots of fire, like gawkers and bookmakers, Wall Street insiders drives the market up, down, sideways and to its breaking point. The entire retail sector - with Sears leading the charge - is collapsing. Radio Shack recently re-entered bankruptcy, hopefully for the final time, and Payless Shoes is on the block. Malls across America are fast becoming nothing more than exercise walking routes for seniors rather than the shopping "experiences" for which they were designed.
We are changing, but we are not growing. The bulk of any profit is eaten alive by taxes, regulations, corporate executives, hackers and other thieves. In the end, there's little left for the common man.
And that's a crying shame, because the common man (and woman) is the person who built the country, who made it great, who is watching it self-destruct and who has nothing to do with the great default that is upon us.
The government is the problem, and seeking solutions from that very same government, be it federal, state, or local, is not a winning strategy. We will only get more of the same, and the same will only sink the nation further into the morass of stupidity, overspending, and normalcy bias with which we are currently plagued.
Our current malaise is not a democrat or republican issue. It is not liberal nor conservative. It is purely greed, avarice and corruption at every level that has besieged our once-great nation and if ever the United States of America is going to become - as the current resident of the White House proposes - great again, we must begin to call out the corrupt, the purposefully vague, the unequivocally deceitful, rapacious legislators and governors and bureaucrats that have lain waste to our nation, and all those who either back them, encourage them, enable them or act as apologists for them.
We are as close to systemic breakdown in our culture, our politic, and our economy than at any time since World War II, and that is a frightening prospect. More frightening, however, is the idea, the very concept, that ordinary people expect positive results from the very people who promulgated the predicament in the first place.
If Mr. Trump, the preeminent deal-maker of this generation, is unable to come to grips and compromise with the congress and the judiciary, it's likely that all that America has stood for will have been for naught, for we will bear witness to the destruction of the world's greatest constitutional republic in history.
But, if the wise and courageous among us will act, the destruction may yet be avoided. We face the fight of our lives over the next few years, and we cannot afford to fail.
It's not just economy at stake, but liberty and life.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
NYSE, Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ Close At All-Time Highs 3rd Straight Session
As the bubble grows what can be said of the current political and economic conditions except that we are in uncharted territory?
Just a week or so ago, many were still wondering if the Dow could reach and hold 20,000. 500 points later, on some of the weakest volume in stock market history, we have an answer, as troubling as it may seem.
With the politicians tied up with what increasingly appears to abe an overt attempt to oust recently-installed President Donald J. Trump, the markets do not seem to care one whit whether the myriad problems of the United States and the world are solver, much less addressed.
For now, the world watches as Washington, DC self-destructs. Stocks continue to soar. This could go on for an extended period, but the system is strained if not outright rigged for massive Wall Street gains during one of the most turbulent periods in the country's history.
It could all come crashing down tomorrow, though that scenario is equally improbable, if not downright frightening.
For the most part, the market is being plied by professionals more than ever before, a condition that obtains from a variety of sources, one of them a well-seated distrust of the financial markets by individuals, the other, unbridled greed.
There may be opportunities, but one would be hard-pressed to delineate any of them with stocks ramping higher day after day after day.
The overarching theme of markets over time has been to buy low, sell high, and stay in the game. Obviously, this is not a game everyone wishes to be playing.
At the Close, Tuesday, February 13, 2017:
Dow: 20,504.41, +92.25 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 5,782.57, +18.62 (0.32%)
S&P 500: 2,337.58, +9.33 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 11,468.88, +34.94 (0.31%)
Just a week or so ago, many were still wondering if the Dow could reach and hold 20,000. 500 points later, on some of the weakest volume in stock market history, we have an answer, as troubling as it may seem.
With the politicians tied up with what increasingly appears to abe an overt attempt to oust recently-installed President Donald J. Trump, the markets do not seem to care one whit whether the myriad problems of the United States and the world are solver, much less addressed.
For now, the world watches as Washington, DC self-destructs. Stocks continue to soar. This could go on for an extended period, but the system is strained if not outright rigged for massive Wall Street gains during one of the most turbulent periods in the country's history.
It could all come crashing down tomorrow, though that scenario is equally improbable, if not downright frightening.
For the most part, the market is being plied by professionals more than ever before, a condition that obtains from a variety of sources, one of them a well-seated distrust of the financial markets by individuals, the other, unbridled greed.
There may be opportunities, but one would be hard-pressed to delineate any of them with stocks ramping higher day after day after day.
The overarching theme of markets over time has been to buy low, sell high, and stay in the game. Obviously, this is not a game everyone wishes to be playing.
At the Close, Tuesday, February 13, 2017:
Dow: 20,504.41, +92.25 (0.45%)
NASDAQ: 5,782.57, +18.62 (0.32%)
S&P 500: 2,337.58, +9.33 (0.40%)
NYSE Composite: 11,468.88, +34.94 (0.31%)
Monday, January 30, 2017
Stocks Close Friday Flat Ending Wild Week As Trump's Immigration Ban May Kill The Rally
Stocks cautiously ended the first full week of the Donald Trump presidency just as Mr. Trump unveiled his most audacious edict via executive order, barring immigration from countries embroiled in the throes of radical Islam such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and four others.
While market participants have been somewhat encouraged by a number of first-week moves made by the new president, the promised immigration shutdown may have more implication globally than anybody may have wished. Stocks finished mixed in a week which witness a number of new all-time highs, particularly the Dow, which surpassed and held above the 20,000 level for the first time ever.
At the Close 1.27.16:
Dow: 20,093.78, -7.13 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 5,660.78, +5.61 (0.10%)
S&P 500: 2,294.69, -1.99 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 11,283.19, -29.93 (-0.26)
On the week, all major indices sported gains, led by the NASDAQ and Dow Industrials, though the ramifications from the immigration ban were yet to be fully appreciated. As markets set to open in the US on Monday, futures indicated a negative open while markets around the world were suffering significant losses despite China and Hong Kong markets being closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. The tenor of trading suggests that markets may not be going along for the protectionist ride that the Trump administration has in mind. "America First" may well turn out to be the death knell for globalization, but the results of such radical policy changes is sure to increase market volatility, which, to this point has been benign.
For the week:
Dow: +266.53 (+1.34%)
NASDAQ: +105.45 (+1.90%)
S&P 500: +23.38 (+1.03%)
NYSE Composite: +90.39 (+0.81%)
While market participants have been somewhat encouraged by a number of first-week moves made by the new president, the promised immigration shutdown may have more implication globally than anybody may have wished. Stocks finished mixed in a week which witness a number of new all-time highs, particularly the Dow, which surpassed and held above the 20,000 level for the first time ever.
At the Close 1.27.16:
Dow: 20,093.78, -7.13 (-0.04%)
NASDAQ: 5,660.78, +5.61 (0.10%)
S&P 500: 2,294.69, -1.99 (-0.09%)
NYSE Composite: 11,283.19, -29.93 (-0.26)
On the week, all major indices sported gains, led by the NASDAQ and Dow Industrials, though the ramifications from the immigration ban were yet to be fully appreciated. As markets set to open in the US on Monday, futures indicated a negative open while markets around the world were suffering significant losses despite China and Hong Kong markets being closed all week for the Lunar New Year holiday. The tenor of trading suggests that markets may not be going along for the protectionist ride that the Trump administration has in mind. "America First" may well turn out to be the death knell for globalization, but the results of such radical policy changes is sure to increase market volatility, which, to this point has been benign.
For the week:
Dow: +266.53 (+1.34%)
NASDAQ: +105.45 (+1.90%)
S&P 500: +23.38 (+1.03%)
NYSE Composite: +90.39 (+0.81%)
Sunday, January 22, 2017
Best Wishes To President Trump; The Wall, Obamacare, Education
It's Official!
Donald J. Trump is the 45th president of the United States of America.
And the markets apparently loved it. The Dow was up. The NASDAQ was up. The S&P 500 was up. So was the Composite, the Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Oil, the dollar. Call it a relief rally. Market participants were relieved that the uncertainties of the past two years of electioneering, mudslinging, maligning, and campaigning were at long last, over. At least now some people can get to work, least of all the new president, like him, loathe him, or feign indifference, he's safely ensconced within the White House walls, with nary a cut, scrape, bruise, or wound.
At least that's what we're seeing through the prism of the news media. There were more than a few bruised egos at the swearing in ceremony on the West steps of the Capitol, facing the Washington and Lincoln monuments, but, some of the more expansive egos were soon swept off the stage and sent packing. The Clintons and the Obamas were whisked into obscurity by the forces of change.
As for our new president, Mr. Trump promises to be, at the very least, entertaining, if not outrageous. While such antics as late-night tweeting and calling people names may not sit well with his establishment critics, the American public will likely relish the shift from the obfuscation, misinformation, and underhandedness which typified the last 16 years of presidential conduct to a more - on the surface - open, progressive (that's a real word, meaning a real effort toward getting things done, not the fancy adversarial adjective applied over the last two decades by liberals), and positive approach to government policy.
It is obviously too early to tell whether President Trump will usher in a new age of American exceptionalism, but there is little doubt that he will try his best to keep his promises and work untiringly toward restoration of traditional American vales. There's also little doubt that he will face significant opposition from the left, the right, his own party, the Democrat party, liberal wingnuts who will protest anything at the drop of a hat, foreign leaders, the Twitterati, Facebook foes, and just about anybody who has an opinion on anything, many of whom will appear regularly on the vicious, unencumbered media whores doing their dirty work for the forces of their paymasters.
That's just how it goes when you rise to the top of the heap as Donald Trump has done. There's always somebody looking to knock you off your mighty throne, literally or figuratively. As for our sentiments here at the Money Daily headquarters, we wish him all the best and will continue to support him - as we did throughout the election process - as best we can. If he can deliver on even half of his campaign promises that would be quite an accomplishment, but we'll settle for three big items:
1. Build the damn wall.
2. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (it does not have to be replaced; we already have too many insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and government involved in health care and would like to see much of that overhead removed)
3. Send education back to the states. The nation is too large and diverse (sorry, but the word does have its place) for a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Besides, the federal intrusion into education has been about as successful as the war on drugs or the war on poverty. Cut the Department of Education in half, or by two thirds, or, preferably, obliterate it.
In the meantime, Money Daily will try to stay out of politics and into money and economics, but, seeing the President and his staffers occasionally and regularly knee-cap the media whores wouldn't meet with any resistance from these parts.
Let the politicians do the dirty work. We'll aim to interpret the effects.
Let's start with a look down below at the weekly results. All four of the major indices were lower on the week, and that may be significant, but will be more so if that becomes a trend. The next two weeks are almost certain to be wild ones in terms of politicking and figurative bomb-throwing from the left, the right, and everywhere in between, but, if stocks continue to deteriorate (which happens to be our best guess for now), it's going to put more pressure on the new president. Not that he should do anything about it since he has no control of financial markets, but the media will crow endlessly about how the economy is going into the tank under the Trump administration.
We'll leave it there, for now. It's going to get a whole lot more interesting in coming weeks and months.
At The Close 1.20.17:
Dow: 19,827.25, +94.85 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.33, +15.25 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,271.31, +7.62 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 11,192.79, +43.94 (0.39%)
For the Week Ended 1.20.17:
Dow: -58.48 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -18.78 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.33 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -34.38 (-0.31)
Donald J. Trump is the 45th president of the United States of America.
And the markets apparently loved it. The Dow was up. The NASDAQ was up. The S&P 500 was up. So was the Composite, the Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Oil, the dollar. Call it a relief rally. Market participants were relieved that the uncertainties of the past two years of electioneering, mudslinging, maligning, and campaigning were at long last, over. At least now some people can get to work, least of all the new president, like him, loathe him, or feign indifference, he's safely ensconced within the White House walls, with nary a cut, scrape, bruise, or wound.
At least that's what we're seeing through the prism of the news media. There were more than a few bruised egos at the swearing in ceremony on the West steps of the Capitol, facing the Washington and Lincoln monuments, but, some of the more expansive egos were soon swept off the stage and sent packing. The Clintons and the Obamas were whisked into obscurity by the forces of change.
As for our new president, Mr. Trump promises to be, at the very least, entertaining, if not outrageous. While such antics as late-night tweeting and calling people names may not sit well with his establishment critics, the American public will likely relish the shift from the obfuscation, misinformation, and underhandedness which typified the last 16 years of presidential conduct to a more - on the surface - open, progressive (that's a real word, meaning a real effort toward getting things done, not the fancy adversarial adjective applied over the last two decades by liberals), and positive approach to government policy.
It is obviously too early to tell whether President Trump will usher in a new age of American exceptionalism, but there is little doubt that he will try his best to keep his promises and work untiringly toward restoration of traditional American vales. There's also little doubt that he will face significant opposition from the left, the right, his own party, the Democrat party, liberal wingnuts who will protest anything at the drop of a hat, foreign leaders, the Twitterati, Facebook foes, and just about anybody who has an opinion on anything, many of whom will appear regularly on the vicious, unencumbered media whores doing their dirty work for the forces of their paymasters.
That's just how it goes when you rise to the top of the heap as Donald Trump has done. There's always somebody looking to knock you off your mighty throne, literally or figuratively. As for our sentiments here at the Money Daily headquarters, we wish him all the best and will continue to support him - as we did throughout the election process - as best we can. If he can deliver on even half of his campaign promises that would be quite an accomplishment, but we'll settle for three big items:
1. Build the damn wall.
2. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (it does not have to be replaced; we already have too many insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and government involved in health care and would like to see much of that overhead removed)
3. Send education back to the states. The nation is too large and diverse (sorry, but the word does have its place) for a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Besides, the federal intrusion into education has been about as successful as the war on drugs or the war on poverty. Cut the Department of Education in half, or by two thirds, or, preferably, obliterate it.
In the meantime, Money Daily will try to stay out of politics and into money and economics, but, seeing the President and his staffers occasionally and regularly knee-cap the media whores wouldn't meet with any resistance from these parts.
Let the politicians do the dirty work. We'll aim to interpret the effects.
Let's start with a look down below at the weekly results. All four of the major indices were lower on the week, and that may be significant, but will be more so if that becomes a trend. The next two weeks are almost certain to be wild ones in terms of politicking and figurative bomb-throwing from the left, the right, and everywhere in between, but, if stocks continue to deteriorate (which happens to be our best guess for now), it's going to put more pressure on the new president. Not that he should do anything about it since he has no control of financial markets, but the media will crow endlessly about how the economy is going into the tank under the Trump administration.
We'll leave it there, for now. It's going to get a whole lot more interesting in coming weeks and months.
At The Close 1.20.17:
Dow: 19,827.25, +94.85 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.33, +15.25 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,271.31, +7.62 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 11,192.79, +43.94 (0.39%)
For the Week Ended 1.20.17:
Dow: -58.48 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -18.78 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.33 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -34.38 (-0.31)
Thursday, January 19, 2017
Globalism Is Dead And Dying At Davos
As the world prepares for a new American era to begin with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as the 45th president of the United States, the global elites are gathered at Davos to interpret the condition of the world economy.
Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University spoke briefly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, saying,
If one were living in a rural area in America, or India, or the Congo, even, the effects of global initiatives like those espoused and implemented by the people at Davos would be minimal, at best. One would still water plants, feed livestock, wash eggs, and perform all the other chores of a minimal farming/subsistence lifestyle. Mr. Goldin, being of the elitist character, has virtually no concept of digging holes for posts, erecting fences, germinating seed, slaughtering hogs, gathering chicken eggs daily, and so on. He's about as disconnected from the reality of everyday life as one could possibly be, viewing the world from his ivory tower at Oxford as he glances up briefly from his reading of some other obviously clueless professor emeritus or other "authority" whose mantra to which he subscribes.
Therefore, as we've seen in the Brexit movement and the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States of America, the globalist agenda is dead in the water, disconnected and disintegrating. The annual fete at Davos - through the media filter, at least - gives everyone an opportunity to see firsthand just how audaciously and vigorously the gathered elitists continue to promote their agendas. Liberalism, diversity, and globalism are all joined together into a kind of religion of the rich and powerful, but, the masses need not adhere to what is looking increasingly like failed policy.
If globalism has taken thirty or forty years to expand itself into monstrosities such as the European Union, the Arab Spring, and unadulterated acceptance of gay marriage, it's likely going to take an equal amount of time to dismantle its various parts and replace them with more stable value systems. As the globalists retreat from their worn-out traditions and values, popular uprisings will accelerate the decline. It starts, as do all major moral or political or economic upheavals, on the fringes of society, in the hinterlands, so to speak, before spreading to all ranges of the spectrum, from old to young, from the countryside to the cityscape.
We are at the beginning of a new age, one which promises the demise of authority at all levels from local to supranational and more freedom for the working classes and ordinary citizens.
On cue, one day before the actual inauguration of the man all the "experts" said had no chance of winning, Donald Trump, world markets continued a dizzy dance of denial and suspense, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which spasmodically descended today to a point below where it began the year, closing at its lowest level since Decemeber 30 of last year (19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)).
Though the drop in percentage terms was hardly sensational, the level is of more immediate concern. Since December 12, the intraday level never fell below 19,718, the mark made on the final day of trading for 2016, December 30.
While broader indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, retained a positive tilt for 2017, it has been the Dow that garnered the most attention of late, especially over its historic (failed) attempt to crack the 20,000 level.
With Trump taking the oath of office at noon tomorrow, the question on every trader's mind is how the markets will respond. With a whimper or a yawn, or might the Dow set aim again for an historic close?
At The Close 1.19.16:
Dow 19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 5,540.08, -15.57 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,263.69, -8.20 (-0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 11,151.69, -44.41 (-0.40%)
Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University spoke briefly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, saying,
“You can’t stop managing an entangled environment by disconnecting. This is the fundamental mistake of Brexit, of Trump, and of so many others. We are not simply connected. We are entangled. Our lives, our destinies are intertwined. What happens in China, what happens in Indonesia, what happens in India, what happens across Europe, and what happens in North America, across Africa and Latin America will affect all of us in dramatic new ways. The idea that somehow we can forge our future in an insular way, even for the biggest countries like the U.S., is a fantasy.”Obviously, Mr. Goldin has been smoking too much of what he's been growing over the past couple of decades. To put it into a more precise perspective, Mr. Goldin kneels at the altar of globalization, thus, he's unprepared to express or even admit that there's any other opinion or world view than the one he personally promotes.
If one were living in a rural area in America, or India, or the Congo, even, the effects of global initiatives like those espoused and implemented by the people at Davos would be minimal, at best. One would still water plants, feed livestock, wash eggs, and perform all the other chores of a minimal farming/subsistence lifestyle. Mr. Goldin, being of the elitist character, has virtually no concept of digging holes for posts, erecting fences, germinating seed, slaughtering hogs, gathering chicken eggs daily, and so on. He's about as disconnected from the reality of everyday life as one could possibly be, viewing the world from his ivory tower at Oxford as he glances up briefly from his reading of some other obviously clueless professor emeritus or other "authority" whose mantra to which he subscribes.
Therefore, as we've seen in the Brexit movement and the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States of America, the globalist agenda is dead in the water, disconnected and disintegrating. The annual fete at Davos - through the media filter, at least - gives everyone an opportunity to see firsthand just how audaciously and vigorously the gathered elitists continue to promote their agendas. Liberalism, diversity, and globalism are all joined together into a kind of religion of the rich and powerful, but, the masses need not adhere to what is looking increasingly like failed policy.
If globalism has taken thirty or forty years to expand itself into monstrosities such as the European Union, the Arab Spring, and unadulterated acceptance of gay marriage, it's likely going to take an equal amount of time to dismantle its various parts and replace them with more stable value systems. As the globalists retreat from their worn-out traditions and values, popular uprisings will accelerate the decline. It starts, as do all major moral or political or economic upheavals, on the fringes of society, in the hinterlands, so to speak, before spreading to all ranges of the spectrum, from old to young, from the countryside to the cityscape.
We are at the beginning of a new age, one which promises the demise of authority at all levels from local to supranational and more freedom for the working classes and ordinary citizens.
On cue, one day before the actual inauguration of the man all the "experts" said had no chance of winning, Donald Trump, world markets continued a dizzy dance of denial and suspense, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which spasmodically descended today to a point below where it began the year, closing at its lowest level since Decemeber 30 of last year (19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)).
Though the drop in percentage terms was hardly sensational, the level is of more immediate concern. Since December 12, the intraday level never fell below 19,718, the mark made on the final day of trading for 2016, December 30.
While broader indices, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, retained a positive tilt for 2017, it has been the Dow that garnered the most attention of late, especially over its historic (failed) attempt to crack the 20,000 level.
With Trump taking the oath of office at noon tomorrow, the question on every trader's mind is how the markets will respond. With a whimper or a yawn, or might the Dow set aim again for an historic close?
At The Close 1.19.16:
Dow 19,732.40, -72.32 (-0.37%)
NASDAQ: 5,540.08, -15.57 (-0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,263.69, -8.20 (-0.36%)
NYSE Composite: 11,151.69, -44.41 (-0.40%)
Saturday, January 14, 2017
NASDAQ Posts Seventh Record Of 2017; Dow Flat; Gold Outperforming All Other Assets
As America lurches toward inauguration day (Jan. 20), stocks remain a mixed bag.
The Dow ended the week with a small loss on Friday as the NASDAQ rose to another record close, its seventh this year.
For the week, the NAZ was up nearly one percent. The Dow's loss was minor, at less than one half percent (-0.39%), but the broader S&P and NYSE composite suffered almost no depreciation.
Overall, it was fairly uneventful in markets, which is odd, given the cross-currents blowing through the political and economic spectrum.
Next week, with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as America's 45th president putting a final glow on the proceedings, promises to be a more volatile period, shortened by one day, as markets are idle for Monday's Martin Luther King holiday.
Ominously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains positioned below the expected 20,000 level but has been flat as a pancake for the past four weeks.
WTI crude oil remains mired in the mid-fifties, while gold, the year's best-performing asset thus far, pierced the 1200/oz. mark on Friday but fell off and closed at 1196.90 the ounce.
At The Close 1.13.16:
Dow: 19,885.73, -5.27 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,574.12, +26.63 (0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,274.64, +4.20 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,227.17, +23.02 (0.21%)
Week Ending 1.13.16:
Dow: -78.07 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ: +53.06 (0.96%)
S&P 500: -2.34 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -10.45 (-0.09%)
The Dow ended the week with a small loss on Friday as the NASDAQ rose to another record close, its seventh this year.
For the week, the NAZ was up nearly one percent. The Dow's loss was minor, at less than one half percent (-0.39%), but the broader S&P and NYSE composite suffered almost no depreciation.
Overall, it was fairly uneventful in markets, which is odd, given the cross-currents blowing through the political and economic spectrum.
Next week, with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump as America's 45th president putting a final glow on the proceedings, promises to be a more volatile period, shortened by one day, as markets are idle for Monday's Martin Luther King holiday.
Ominously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average remains positioned below the expected 20,000 level but has been flat as a pancake for the past four weeks.
WTI crude oil remains mired in the mid-fifties, while gold, the year's best-performing asset thus far, pierced the 1200/oz. mark on Friday but fell off and closed at 1196.90 the ounce.
At The Close 1.13.16:
Dow: 19,885.73, -5.27 (-0.03%)
NASDAQ: 5,574.12, +26.63 (0.48%)
S&P 500: 2,274.64, +4.20 (0.18%)
NYSE Composite: 11,227.17, +23.02 (0.21%)
Week Ending 1.13.16:
Dow: -78.07 (-0.39%)
NASDAQ: +53.06 (0.96%)
S&P 500: -2.34 (-0.10%)
NYSE Composite: -10.45 (-0.09%)
Wednesday, January 11, 2017
Trump Presser A Non-Event; America Awaits Inauguration
Though widely-anticipated as a market moving event, President-Elect Donald J. Trump's press conference at 11;00 ET today was more or less an exercise in sell the hype, buy the news.
Trump handled questions about the "fake news" Russian dossiers widely circulated by CNN and other outlets and quickly dismissed them as nonsense. The audacious level of mendacity displayed by the mainstream media in the run-up to the inauguration of America's 45th president has been unconscionable and unprecedented, but the Donald managed to deflect any potential harm as the media and intelligence community reports have been devoid of facts or proof of their veracity.
Other than waving off and refusing to take questions from anybody from CNN, Trump laid out basically the same nebulous outlines upon which he campaigned, without getting too specific. Thus, what the market wanted was not what they received, but traders were assuaged by the one-hour appearance and resumed trading within the prevailing range of the past month, between 19,800 and 19,999.
If the market seems moribund, it's likely the result of non-specifics from the soon-to-be-sitting president, meaning this regime of up-down-up-down may persist through the next week, culminating in next Friday's inauguration.
Otherwise, it was another uneventful day, with the Dow still planted just south of 20K.
At the Close 1.11.16
Dow: 19,954.28, +98.75 (0.50%)
NASDAQ: 5,563.65, +11.83 (0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,275.32, +6.42 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 11,221.92, +38.59 (0.35%)
Trump handled questions about the "fake news" Russian dossiers widely circulated by CNN and other outlets and quickly dismissed them as nonsense. The audacious level of mendacity displayed by the mainstream media in the run-up to the inauguration of America's 45th president has been unconscionable and unprecedented, but the Donald managed to deflect any potential harm as the media and intelligence community reports have been devoid of facts or proof of their veracity.
Other than waving off and refusing to take questions from anybody from CNN, Trump laid out basically the same nebulous outlines upon which he campaigned, without getting too specific. Thus, what the market wanted was not what they received, but traders were assuaged by the one-hour appearance and resumed trading within the prevailing range of the past month, between 19,800 and 19,999.
If the market seems moribund, it's likely the result of non-specifics from the soon-to-be-sitting president, meaning this regime of up-down-up-down may persist through the next week, culminating in next Friday's inauguration.
Otherwise, it was another uneventful day, with the Dow still planted just south of 20K.
At the Close 1.11.16
Dow: 19,954.28, +98.75 (0.50%)
NASDAQ: 5,563.65, +11.83 (0.21%)
S&P 500: 2,275.32, +6.42 (0.28%)
NYSE Composite: 11,221.92, +38.59 (0.35%)
Saturday, December 31, 2016
2016 Ends On Sour Tone As Stocks Sell Into Year-End Close
At the Close: 12/30/2016:
Dow: 19,762.60, -57.18 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 5,383.12, -48.97 (-0.90%)
S&P 500: 2,238.83, -10.43 (-0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 11,056.90, -17.43 (-0.16%)
Over the final three weeks of 2016, the financial community focused on not buying Christmas presents or planning a New Year's gala event, but boosting stocks to a point at which they could be sold for a tidy, late-year profit, and they did so by ramping up the Dow Jones Industrial Average to stratospheric levels before dumping the blue chip shares into the laps of terminally brain-dead bag holders, i.e., pension funds.
This maneuver was rather artfully crafted, with the financial media cheerleading the ascent to the magical "Dow 20,000" level, which, as most readers will note, is anything but magic. The figure is plainly something upon which ordinary people (pension fund managers) could focus their extremely short spans of attention. 20,000 points on the Dow can be compared to other nostalgic remnants of history, like 300 million Americans, 60 home runs, or five percent unemployment.
These are just numbers, and, while numbers themselves don't lie, when placed in a variety of contexts, the narratives blur the lines between fact and fantasy. To say that a certain level of unemployment is "maximum", or that another number is an historic record (and thus something to which others can aspire) reinforces the perceived value of such a figure. It does not change the fact that the number itself is innocuous, lonesome, and static.
Having control over vast swaths of money and capital, as do central bankers and their agents, allows considerable control over the flow. Stocks and commodities are easily controlled by such enormous hordes of cash and certificates; bonds and real estate less so. Thus it's no surprise that US stocks went into overdrive upon the election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th US president. This was after various implied warnings about a massive correction should the media star and real estate mogul win the election and was also on the heels of an enormous dumping in the futures market. Unwashed have limited insight, knowledge or memory of how large was the shift from futures to the US open on the day after the election and how well orchestrated was the late-stage rally from early November until just before Christmas.
From November 9 through December 13, the Dow added in excess of 1900 points (from 18,332.74 to 19,974.62), a gain of 1641 points, or, more than 8% in a period of less than seven weeks.
In other words, anybody who was right about Trump winning (not as out-of-the-question as the media had everybody believing) and wrong about the market outcome made a simple, inexcusable error of judgement. Those people trusted the same media narrative that was lying to them on both ends. As it turns out, Mr. Trump was a viable candidate capable of winning the election and the market was going to rally upon his victory, not drop into a sinkhole.
It was a great setup keyed by none other than everybody's favorite globalist central bankers and their agents at Goldman Sachs, the latter group eventually the recipient of more than just a few, token places inside the incoming Trump administration, but also the benefactor in a mammoth stock run which added significantly to the wealth of insiders at, or close to the center of the firm.
But Dow 20,000 was not to be. It was the cherry on top of the sundae meant for the little guy, but it was devoured by ravenous market forces otherwise known as naked short sellers, ostensibly, the large money crowd.
So, 2016 ends with a whimper rather than a shout. Delusional traders and hopeful investors will likely bear witness to more of the same chicanery in 2017. Nobody wants to admit that they're mere pawns on a global chessboard, therefore damming themselves behind a wall of self-doubt, misinformation, lies, and half-truths.
Happy New Year!
Week Ending 12/30/2016:
Dow: -171.21 (-0.86%)
NASDAQ: -79.57 (-1.46%)
S&P 500: -24.96 (-1.10%)
NYSE Composite: (-71.90, (-0.65%)
Dow: 19,762.60, -57.18 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: 5,383.12, -48.97 (-0.90%)
S&P 500: 2,238.83, -10.43 (-0.46%)
NYSE Composite: 11,056.90, -17.43 (-0.16%)
Over the final three weeks of 2016, the financial community focused on not buying Christmas presents or planning a New Year's gala event, but boosting stocks to a point at which they could be sold for a tidy, late-year profit, and they did so by ramping up the Dow Jones Industrial Average to stratospheric levels before dumping the blue chip shares into the laps of terminally brain-dead bag holders, i.e., pension funds.
This maneuver was rather artfully crafted, with the financial media cheerleading the ascent to the magical "Dow 20,000" level, which, as most readers will note, is anything but magic. The figure is plainly something upon which ordinary people (pension fund managers) could focus their extremely short spans of attention. 20,000 points on the Dow can be compared to other nostalgic remnants of history, like 300 million Americans, 60 home runs, or five percent unemployment.
These are just numbers, and, while numbers themselves don't lie, when placed in a variety of contexts, the narratives blur the lines between fact and fantasy. To say that a certain level of unemployment is "maximum", or that another number is an historic record (and thus something to which others can aspire) reinforces the perceived value of such a figure. It does not change the fact that the number itself is innocuous, lonesome, and static.
Having control over vast swaths of money and capital, as do central bankers and their agents, allows considerable control over the flow. Stocks and commodities are easily controlled by such enormous hordes of cash and certificates; bonds and real estate less so. Thus it's no surprise that US stocks went into overdrive upon the election of Donald J. Trump as the 45th US president. This was after various implied warnings about a massive correction should the media star and real estate mogul win the election and was also on the heels of an enormous dumping in the futures market. Unwashed have limited insight, knowledge or memory of how large was the shift from futures to the US open on the day after the election and how well orchestrated was the late-stage rally from early November until just before Christmas.
From November 9 through December 13, the Dow added in excess of 1900 points (from 18,332.74 to 19,974.62), a gain of 1641 points, or, more than 8% in a period of less than seven weeks.
In other words, anybody who was right about Trump winning (not as out-of-the-question as the media had everybody believing) and wrong about the market outcome made a simple, inexcusable error of judgement. Those people trusted the same media narrative that was lying to them on both ends. As it turns out, Mr. Trump was a viable candidate capable of winning the election and the market was going to rally upon his victory, not drop into a sinkhole.
It was a great setup keyed by none other than everybody's favorite globalist central bankers and their agents at Goldman Sachs, the latter group eventually the recipient of more than just a few, token places inside the incoming Trump administration, but also the benefactor in a mammoth stock run which added significantly to the wealth of insiders at, or close to the center of the firm.
But Dow 20,000 was not to be. It was the cherry on top of the sundae meant for the little guy, but it was devoured by ravenous market forces otherwise known as naked short sellers, ostensibly, the large money crowd.
So, 2016 ends with a whimper rather than a shout. Delusional traders and hopeful investors will likely bear witness to more of the same chicanery in 2017. Nobody wants to admit that they're mere pawns on a global chessboard, therefore damming themselves behind a wall of self-doubt, misinformation, lies, and half-truths.
Happy New Year!
Week Ending 12/30/2016:
Dow: -171.21 (-0.86%)
NASDAQ: -79.57 (-1.46%)
S&P 500: -24.96 (-1.10%)
NYSE Composite: (-71.90, (-0.65%)
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