Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hillary Clinton. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Oil, Silver Lead Commodity Charge As Stocks Languish

James Comey, Andrew McCabe, Loretta Lynch, and yes, Hillary Clinton were cited in a letter from 11 Republican members of the US House of Representatives requesting the Department of Justice to open criminal investigations on those and others.

While that news was and is still hardly being reported in the mainstream media, these potential criminal referrals may auger a turning point in the quiet coup attempt that has swallowed up most of Washington DC and harassed the Trump White House from day one of his presidency through the Mueller probe.

Interestingly, anything even remotely related to wrongdoing by the president gets front page, bleeding headlines from the usual fake news sources, but, when Democrats or Hillary loyalists are involved, crickets. It will be up to DOJ head Jeff Sessions to determine if investigations and indictments are in order. By the body language of the ongoing swamp fight, he will go after the people who went after President Trump.

On the equity markets, it was a day of churning stocks and stomachs as the Dow Industrials hugged the unchanged line all day, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rode higher midday but had weak closes, suggesting that tomorrow and possibly Friday - which is stock options expiration day - may not be so robust. The likely causes of the sudden sluggishness in stocks could have been the Fed's Beige Book, released today, in which a majority of participants expressed concerns over President Trump's proposed tariffs, or the fear that the above-referenced referrals resulting in indictments, earnings that were good but not good enough, or, the relentless rise in the price of oil, which has now been joined by precious metals and other hard commodities, notably copper and zinc.

WTI crude oil, which not six months ago was trading below $50, spiked today beyond $68 per barrel, the highest price in 2 1/2 years. Silver was on fire today, rising well over the $17/ounce mark to finish the day in New York at $17.20. Gold had a more-subdued gain, but copper and zinc have been quietly building momentum over the past few weeks.

A spike in commodity prices signal two things, neither of which are necessarily good for stocks, and they could indeed be bad. First, a surge in commodity prices signals inflation at the base of the economy (also, lumber is, and has been very expensive for a while) and it also notes investors seeking safety, away from riskier assets, like stocks. On the downside for everybody, high oil prices translate to higher prices at the pump, which eventually damages consumers, much like an additional tax. Higher energy costs harm all kinds of industries as well.

If oil continues to rise and pull the rest of the commodity complex along could shape trading in stocks over the coming weeks and months. While its too early to call it a trend, silver has been set to break out for months, and is currently at a 2 1/2 month high.

Dow Jones Industrial Average April Scorecard:

Date Close Gain/Loss Cum. G/L
4/2/18 23,644.19 -458.92 -458.92
4/3/18 24,033.36 +389.17 -69.75
4/4/18 24,264.30 +230.94 +161.19
4/5/18 24,505.22 +240.92 +402.11
4/6/18 23,932.76 -572.46 -170.35
4/9/18 23,979.10 +46.34 -134.01
4/10/18 24,407.86 +428.76 +294.66
4/11/18 24,189.45 -218.55 +76.11
4/12/18 24,483.05 +293.60 +369.71
4/13/18 24,360.14 -122.91 +247.80
4/16/18 24,573.04 +212.90 +460.70
4/17/18 24,786.63 +213.59 +674.29
4/18/18 24,748.07 -38.56 +635.73

At the Close, Wednesday, April 18, 2018:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24,748.07, -38.56 (-0.16%)
NASDAQ: 7,295.24, +14.14 (+0.19%)
S&P 500: 2,708.64, +2.25 (+0.08%)
NYSE Composite: 12,732.85, +27.09 (+0.21%)

Sunday, January 22, 2017

Best Wishes To President Trump; The Wall, Obamacare, Education

It's Official!

Donald J. Trump is the 45th president of the United States of America.

And the markets apparently loved it. The Dow was up. The NASDAQ was up. The S&P 500 was up. So was the Composite, the Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Oil, the dollar. Call it a relief rally. Market participants were relieved that the uncertainties of the past two years of electioneering, mudslinging, maligning, and campaigning were at long last, over. At least now some people can get to work, least of all the new president, like him, loathe him, or feign indifference, he's safely ensconced within the White House walls, with nary a cut, scrape, bruise, or wound.

At least that's what we're seeing through the prism of the news media. There were more than a few bruised egos at the swearing in ceremony on the West steps of the Capitol, facing the Washington and Lincoln monuments, but, some of the more expansive egos were soon swept off the stage and sent packing. The Clintons and the Obamas were whisked into obscurity by the forces of change.

As for our new president, Mr. Trump promises to be, at the very least, entertaining, if not outrageous. While such antics as late-night tweeting and calling people names may not sit well with his establishment critics, the American public will likely relish the shift from the obfuscation, misinformation, and underhandedness which typified the last 16 years of presidential conduct to a more - on the surface - open, progressive (that's a real word, meaning a real effort toward getting things done, not the fancy adversarial adjective applied over the last two decades by liberals), and positive approach to government policy.

It is obviously too early to tell whether President Trump will usher in a new age of American exceptionalism, but there is little doubt that he will try his best to keep his promises and work untiringly toward restoration of traditional American vales. There's also little doubt that he will face significant opposition from the left, the right, his own party, the Democrat party, liberal wingnuts who will protest anything at the drop of a hat, foreign leaders, the Twitterati, Facebook foes, and just about anybody who has an opinion on anything, many of whom will appear regularly on the vicious, unencumbered media whores doing their dirty work for the forces of their paymasters.

That's just how it goes when you rise to the top of the heap as Donald Trump has done. There's always somebody looking to knock you off your mighty throne, literally or figuratively. As for our sentiments here at the Money Daily headquarters, we wish him all the best and will continue to support him - as we did throughout the election process - as best we can. If he can deliver on even half of his campaign promises that would be quite an accomplishment, but we'll settle for three big items:

1. Build the damn wall.
2. Repeal the Affordable Care Act (it does not have to be replaced; we already have too many insurance companies, pharmaceutical companies and government involved in health care and would like to see much of that overhead removed)
3. Send education back to the states. The nation is too large and diverse (sorry, but the word does have its place) for a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Besides, the federal intrusion into education has been about as successful as the war on drugs or the war on poverty. Cut the Department of Education in half, or by two thirds, or, preferably, obliterate it.

In the meantime, Money Daily will try to stay out of politics and into money and economics, but, seeing the President and his staffers occasionally and regularly knee-cap the media whores wouldn't meet with any resistance from these parts.

Let the politicians do the dirty work. We'll aim to interpret the effects.

Let's start with a look down below at the weekly results. All four of the major indices were lower on the week, and that may be significant, but will be more so if that becomes a trend. The next two weeks are almost certain to be wild ones in terms of politicking and figurative bomb-throwing from the left, the right, and everywhere in between, but, if stocks continue to deteriorate (which happens to be our best guess for now), it's going to put more pressure on the new president. Not that he should do anything about it since he has no control of financial markets, but the media will crow endlessly about how the economy is going into the tank under the Trump administration.

We'll leave it there, for now. It's going to get a whole lot more interesting in coming weeks and months.

At The Close 1.20.17:
Dow: 19,827.25, +94.85 (0.48%)
NASDAQ: 5,555.33, +15.25 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,271.31, +7.62 (0.34%)
NYSE Composite: 11,192.79, +43.94 (0.39%)

For the Week Ended 1.20.17:
Dow: -58.48 (-0.29%)
NASDAQ: -18.78 (-0.34%)
S&P 500: -3.33 (-0.15%)
NYSE Composite: -34.38 (-0.31)

Saturday, December 24, 2016

Nine Days And Counting: Dow Fails To Surpass 20,000; Luck Matters

Nine trading days have come and gone since the Dow surpassed the 19,900 mark with expectations that Dow 20,000 would soon be a number we'd be looking at in collected rear view mirrors. It was also the day before the FOMC of the Fed issued their well-telegraphed, monumental 25 basis point increase to the federal funds rate (AKA, the Go F Yourself rate for savers), a marketing stroke of genius by the self-appointed rulers of all marketplaces, everywhere, forever.

Well, what happened?

In technical terms, the Fed put the kibosh on stocks. 20,000 didn't happen, just like other sure things this year, such as Hillary Clinton winning the election to become America's 45th president (love that one, just can't give it up).

Other things didn't happen over the past nine trading days (plus one weekend) that were not nearly as important. Donald Trump didn't resign before taking the oath of office (sorry to the serially constipated never-Trumpers like Bill Kristol), nobody killed any special lions or panda bears, and no enormous meteors struck the earth ending the human species (really happy about that last one).

But, a few days ago (Wednesday, Dec. 21), Fearless Rick made possibly the most outrageous prediction of his inglorious career as writer, journalist, blogger and general miscreant. He touted his belief that the Dow would not break the 20,000 mark this year or at least until June, 2017. He mused that the Dow "may" not hit 20,000 until 2023.

Here's his exact quote:
The Dow isn't going to make it to 20,000 this year, and it won't make it by June of next year. In fact, it may not hit 20,000 until 2023. Book it.

So far he's right. But there's still five trading days left in 2016, so plenty of people are rooting against him, including some fat guy in a weird red suit promising some absurd thing known as a Santa Claus Rally. Good luck with that. Far fewer are betting against him, however, as the market in general, and the Dow in particular, seems to have peaked.

There's still plenty of time for him to be wrong. There's the six months until June, and the seven years until 2023. But, since one and seven are Fearless Rick's lucky numbers, he may eventually to be more lucky than good.

We shall see. In case one missed all the non-action of Friday's market churning, it went something like this: Down, slightly, sleepwalking though midday, rabid short-covering into the closing last ten minutes, boosting all the major indices into positive territory. We have all seen this play before. Yawn, and Merry Christmas.

At the Close, Friday, December 23, 2016:
Dow: 19,933.81, +14.93 (0.07%)
NASDAQ: 5,462.69, +15.27 (0.28%)
S&P 500: 2,263.79, +2.83 (0.13%)
NYSE Composite: 11,128.80, +14.66 (0.13%)

For the week:
Dow: +90.40 (+0.46%)
NASDAQ: +25.53 (+0.47%)
S&P 500: +5.72 (+0.25%)
NYSE Composite: +3.58 (+0.03%)

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

No Shortage Of Stupidity In The New USA

While many Americans are happy or relieved that the incoming president is going to be one Donald J.Trump rather than a Hillary R. Clinton, the level of stupidity and derision following the November 8 election cannot be underestimated nor easily dismissed.

Within hours of the election results being boomed around the world and drummed into the heads of the mainstream media (TV) pundits and nitwits, protests sprang forth in some large cities.The usual suspects were the main venues for these particular acts of organized convulsion. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Portland, Philadelphia and New York City - all bastions of sanctuary for liberal mind-numbness and “gimme” passions - were singed with the callous chanting and protesting of the election results. Ostensibly, the protesters were recruited, rounded up and bussed into the streets by the monied interest of George Soros, the criminal billionaire who has helped fund the destruction of Europe and was intent on bringing the philosophical wrecking ball to the United States.

Additionally, spontaneous demonstrations of grief, loathing, fear, and discontent erupted upon college campuses, those former institutions learning which have devolved into self-pitying, protected safe spaces for all manner of moronic manifestations.

These protests and demonstrations lasted about a week and died a slow, painful death, the adherents of liberal ideology apparently content to wreak havoc for a little while, collect their pay and slide back into the slimy holes from which they came.

Of course, their positions atop the “we’re all gonna die” narrative were quickly taken up by far more qualified idiots in the television and newspaper media and their lap-dog, sound-horn political hacks, who commandeered the airwaves with threats to undo or, at least, minimize the Trump victory, making various noises and guttural moaning about the rights of illegal immigrants, women, minorities and whatever other simple-minded antithetical nonsense they could foist upon the not-so-unsuspecting viewing and reading public.

Andrew Cuomo, governor of New York, issued a proclamation and a new law (heaped upon the hundreds of other laws which are not enforceable and cannot and will not be enforced) guaranteeing that any illegal threatened with deportation by the federal government will have his or her or its legal bills attended to by the overtly generous and sublimely stupid state of New York.

Mayors across the country insisted that their little fiefdoms would remain sanctuary cities, in direct conflict with the laws of the federal government. Legislation was introduced in the congress to abolish the electoral college. And finally, the left, left, left hop-skip march of the Green Party - which is nothing more than an unofficial subsidiary of the now-defunct and discredited Democrat party - sauntered into the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, promising a full investigation and recount of the vote that went narrowly to Trump and bumped him over the electoral college hump.

And then, Hillary’s people chimed in, on queue, just in time for the Sunday political talk shows, saying snidely that they owed it to the people who voted for Hillary (note: no respect for those who voted for the actual winner, Trump) to ensure that the vote tally was accurate.

But, the public had been heard. Trump had won and the millions who voted for him and the millions who quietly supported him refused to listen, refused to be deterred, refused to be fooled again. No, governor Cuomo, we’re not paying our taxes so that you can appear the savior of the downtrodden at our expense. No, Hillary, your vote recount won’t amount to anything. No, George Soros. Go back to Hungary, you cretin.


It seemed that some sanity had finally emerged, until I ran across this little oddity on a Facebook page. The person upon whose page it was posted (and whose face I have conveniently erased at left) went to a Catholic grammar school, a Catholic high school and eventually went to work in the Human Resources department of a public school district. For the record, there's really no position more loathsome than one in Human Resources, aka HR. It's about as low on the job totem pole one can smoke and doing this kind of work for a public school system is like smoking dirt through a straw pipe. Anyhow, this is why the education system should be scrapped: because people like this are hauling down enormous salaries and pensions while inflicting the youth under their care to ill-informed, nonsensical, downright bad advice.

This woman is no more a Muslim than I am a green-eyed Martian. She was brought up in a middle class American home, schooled privately during her formative years and had all the privilege and pampering that suburban life for young, white girls offered. Apparently, college and a lifetime of servitude to a corrupt, derelict education system which favors mediocrity over success, conformity over individuality, and the dishonesty of the diversity chorus over actual learning, turned a normal American woman into a screeching, tongue-twisted, limpid half-wit with no more original thinking than the average 30-second TV commercial. And the woman next to her in the photo (whose face I also have blotted out... to protect the guilty, as it is) is likely thinking of how she’ll cut out the heart of this insipid infidel when the time is ripe.

Such is the level of stupidity in America.

H. L. Mencken, who coined the phrase, “Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public,” is having convulsions in his grave.

While we’re on the subject of stupid, let’s look at solar technology. I recently had the opportunity to state my concerns and throw out some ideas about solar power on a local radio show (this part is for you, Bob).

Western states, especially those blessed with abundant sunshine, have built enormous solar farms which feed electricity into the grid and eventually into people’s homes. Some such plans have recently come to the attention to our local mob boss or governor, who wishes to have the state of New York take lands (probably under eminent domain) and turn them over to giant utility corporations in order to bring the solar energy collective to New York.

This is a canard designed to fool stupid people, of which there is no shortage in New York or anywhere else in this country. New York’s taxpayers are not as gullible or deep-pocketed as our countrymen out West. We’re tired of paying taxes and then paying again for subsidies to giant corporations. My advice on this radio show was for people to construct their own off-the-grid solar systems, at least partially offsetting the costs of centrally-distributed power.

Here’s how it goes. In most of New York, utility companies are allowed to assess a “customer charge,” a monthly stipend to the utility for the individual privilege of being a customer. There’s nothing more to it. It’s just an additional cost on your bill, sanctioned by our genius legislators, amounting to roughly $35 a month.

Considering that you’re going to stay on the gird for a number of years, that $35 a month becomes $420 a year and eventually, $4200 in ten years. Yes, $4200 just to be a sheep being sheared by the power company. If you took just that $4200 could easily purchase eight 250-watt solar panels at a cost of roughly $250 each (so, there’s $2000). An inverter, a voltage regulator, and a bank of four deep cycle batteries (which last 5-7 years, so they would have to be replaced at some point) should cost about $600-700. The solar panels have a useful life of twenty years, so, do the math (I know, it’s hard) and you’ll see how far ahead you could be.

Such a system can produce two kilowatts (that’s 2000 watts, son) of energy per hour on a sunny day. On average, upstate New Yorkers get about five hours of sun per day. On average. That’s important, because the sun doesn’t always shine (though modern solar panels can get some power from moonlight - it’s a modern marvel of technology). So, this setup will, on average, produce 10 kilowatt hours per day, or 300 Kwh per month. The average household uses somewhere between 400 and 800, but, being stupid, we waste a lot of that energy. Conservation (which is a derivative of conserve, just like conservative politics) is an important element in the quest to be not stupid, otherwise known as “smart.”

And because the sun doesn’t always shine, that’s why you’ll want four deep cycle batteries. They store the power you’re not using when the sun is shining. If the sun doesn’t shine for a few days, your batteries should have enough power to get you through, and then, when the sun shines again, they’ll recharge and store more power.

Thus, for the money most people are spending on just being a customer of a utility in New York, they could have their own electricity supplied from rooftop or ground  installed solar panels and still have money to spare. About $1500 over ten years. That’s not even taking into account the money these same people will be spending on electricity from the grid.

My advice is to forget the tax credits, the subsidies and tying into the grid. Construct your own solar system and keep it off the grid. The utilities don’t pay you nearly what they’re charging you for energy that you contribute back to the grid. Give the state of New York, the Public Service Commission, and the big utility company a robust middle finger, every month, month after month after month.

For those of you intimidated by electricity or solar technology or, for that matter, any technology, try it out for much less than the $2700 example cited above. Go to Harbor Freight and find the coupon or the monthly ad for the 45-watt solar panel kit. It should run between $129 and $179. It comes with all the wires, a voltage regulator, a couple of 12-volt lights (very cool), and instructions. You’ll also need at least one battery and an inverter (this turns DC electricity into AC). Those can be purchased at the same store. Anything from 400 watts to 1000 watts should work just fine.

The process is pretty simple and straightforward. A friend and I set this up and had power in under 20 minutes. It’s a plug-and-play system that probably any 15-year-old could set up and power up in the back yard. Use it in your garage, on your back porch or patio, for your camper, or for your shed. It’s fun, educational and a good first step before venturing into full-blown, off-the-grid freedom.

Oh, you say you need heat? Look into wood stoves, propane-powered or gas-powered generators and open up that little, collectivist mind for a bit.

Stupidity is one commodity that is free in America. That doesn’t mean you have to take the samples offered.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Media Lied, Trump Won, Markets Soared

How did the media get it so wrong?

That was outlined a month before the election, right here on Money Daily and confirmed when Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 8.

The simple truth is that the media was lying, about Clinton, about Trump, about the polls, about, well, just about everything, and the public caught onto the scam and ran the other way.

Good thing, but it's not over.

One other thing the media was widely disparaging was Trump's effect on the markets. Sorry to say, they had it all wrong again. Since election day, the S&P has gained 65 points, the Dow is up a whopping 650 points, the NASDAQ ahead by 188 points and the NYSE Composite has added 306 points.

Recall how the American public was being told by the TV media and national newspaper corps (should be corpse) that a Trump victory would leave the market in shambles and possibly send the economy spiraling into a recession.

The only thing going down the drain is the quality, reliability and honesty of news reportage in America, if that's at all possible. Prior to the election, the mainstream media had already sunk so low it was going to be difficult to get down any further into the stink-hole of bias and fear-mongering, but, by almost openly supporting Hillary Clinton, they not only demolished themselves, but their candidate with it.

The markets are doing just fine, thank you. All of the news anchors on NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, CNN and anyone we may have missed, should be summarily fired. There's a job for which Trump is ideally suited: firing incompetent cheaters.

Short trading day Friday. See you after the holiday weekend.

--FR

At The Close, Wednesday, November 23:
Dow: 19,083.18, +59.31 (0.31%)
S&P 500: 2,204.72, +1.78 (0.08%)
NASDAQ: 5,380.68, -5.67 (-0.11%)
NYSE Composite: 10,835.90, 15.72 (0.15%)

Friday, November 11, 2016

Trump Wins, America Wins, Fearless Rick Takes A Victory Lap

November has, thus far, been an amazing month.

The Cubs won the World Series for the first time since 1904, Donald Trump won the election for president, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a new all time high.

Fearless Rick outside Trump rally this Spring
In the meantime, as an aftermath to the historic, transformative election win for Donald Trump, a businessman, a TV idol, not a politician, students and other dissatisfied people are protesting the result of the democratic voting process.

To some, the protests may appear preposterous, pompous, self-indulgent, or just plain stupid. But, this is what America is all about: freedom of speech, freedom of expression, freedom to say and do whatever one pleases, so long as those words or actions don’t impinge upon those of others. It’s a thin, blurry line upon which we traverse with free speech and free assembly, but it is there, and, to a large extent, it is going to be respected.

Truthfully, the number of people protesting the election result is ridiculously small in comparison to the number of people who voted for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, so, to a large extent, the protests should be easy to ignore. The more one ponders the wisdom of protesting the result of an election, the more absurd the proposition becomes. The election was the result of months and months of free expression by the candidates, their surrogates, supporters, detractors, and the media. The time for marching and shouting was before the election, not after it. With any luck, that concept will sink in to the kids on the streets and college campuses and they’ll slink back to their jobs, classrooms, or parents’ basements and life will go on as usual.

Protests against the president prior to his inauguration, are likely to be ineffective. Maybe that hasn’t gotten through to George Soros and his ilk, who almost surely have funded and promoted these most idiotic of events.

But that’s not the point of this message. The point is to remind readers that the editor of this blog, Fearless Rick, himself called the election result correctly a month prior to it, calling for a Trump landslide, the result of millions of fed up Americans taking back their nation. Honestly, it was more of a hope than an educated prediction, but, as the pollsters and number crunchers themselves have admitted, they blew it. They didn’t see the millions of Americans who felt disenfranchised and disrespected by the likes of liberal goons promoting gay rights and LGBTQ liberties, who lost jobs because the government made moving industries out of America a profitable decision, who pay taxes for schools that don’t teach, elected officials and bureaucrats who don’t represent them, a media that mocks and ridicules them for being old-fashioned, out-of-step, or even selfish.

The backbone of America was awakened by a man who refused to toe the line of political correctness, who stood against open borders, who stood for the working men and women of this country, the middle class, the downtrodden, the forgotten. Donald Trump was a lightning rod for the pissed off, angry folks in the country who had seen enough of their rights stripped away and were afraid the choice of Hillary Clinton as the next president would have brought upon an epochal eventuality wherein the few remaining rights would be stripped in time.

They were probably right. Democrats and liberals alike have worked tirelessly to limit the second amendment, to nullify free speech, flout the immigration laws, disrespect the rule of law, and gradually, slowly, but incessantly, turn all of America into a totalitarian welfare state of chaos and complete government control. That was not the America most of those who voted for Mr. Trump wanted. Many of the Trump voters were older, who remembered a time when America was a safer place, a freer place, a happier place, and they wanted it back.

In electing Donald Trump as the nation’s 45th president, they may have taken the first step toward a restoration of the America, a return to morality, to honesty, to civility, to economic and true social justice. Making America great again, to borrow from Trump’s slogan, is not going to occur overnight, or even in the four years Mr. Trump will serve as president. It’s going to take a while to unwind all the bad legislation and trade deals and economic imbalances that were the result of crony capitalism. And Mr. Trump is not going to be able to do it alone. He is going to need not just the House of Representatives and the Senate but also the voices of those who voted for him and support his ideals. Winning the election was just the beginning. The left and their compliant media lapdogs are not about to go away and hide. They are going to fight back, lash out and tear at the fabric of society.

They will fail, and they will fail miserably because their vision of America, complete with free college educations, fifty million people on welfare, twenty trillion dollars of debt, overpaid government employees, and a severe lack of good, fulfilling, well-paying jobs, is not America at all. It is a liberal, dysfunctional, diseased obsession and fantasy.

The America represented by the people who put Donald Trump in office is an America of hard work and good pay, of duty to God, country and family, of fearlessness in the face of adversity, of helping neighbors and those less fortunate, of friendliness, honesty and humility. The America which will be refreshed is one of opportunity, freedom and justice for all.

It’s hard to believe that anybody in their right mind would protest that.

Monday, November 7, 2016

President Hillary? Is The Fix In Or The Ultimate Fake-Out?

Considering the volatile take-off of markets world-wide today - a day after FBI Director James Comey gave Hillary Clinton the get out of jail free card by informing congress and the world that nothing new was found in the 650,000 emails on a computer shared by Clinton personal aide Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner, it would appear that the status quo has convinced itself that all is well, that Hillary will win (by hook or crook) and that Donald Trump will not upset the establishment apple cart and "drain the swamp."

Though the swamp dearly needs a good drainage, the market reaction (Dow up over 300 points; NASDAQ up more than 100) from the establishment shows just how embedded the insiders, politicians and media are and just how deeply they despise the voice of the electorate.

This election season has been an object lesson in totalitarianism, underhanded politics, lies, and corruption.

We've got one day to find out whether the world has ended (Hillary wins) or the citizens of the United States of America still has a voice (Trump wins). From the purely superficial appearances, it would come as no surprise if the election was once again (see 2000 and 2004) stolen by the establishment authors of both parties.

Many of us with functioning minds are keeping our fingers crossed and hoping for a Trump victory. Though the Donald has his flaws, the media has managed to paint a truly ugly portrait of the man, all the while ignoring the obvious illegal activities of Hillary Clinton.

God save us.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Trouble In Paradise As Trump Presidency Looms

Normally, stocks are flat - as they were Monday - in anticipation of an FOMC rate policy meeting.

This time is different.

Stocks took a turn for the worse on Tuesday, with the major averages dipping more than 1/2 percent all around. The cause: the truly frightening possibility of a Donald Trump presidency, signifying a change from the crony capitalism of the past 30 years to a more measured, honest, workable structure favoring small business instead of major corporations erecting barriers to business through their henchmen in the US congress and various state assemblies.

That Trump could win the White House - disappointing the supporters of Hillary Clinton and the status quo - is a very disturbing development for Wall Street insiders who have counted on special favors, underhanded practices, and a compliant government to rack up big profits and fleece taxpayers and the investing public, all at the same time.

People who say that a Trump win would cause a market crash may be right, and it's just the medicine this sick globalized economy would need to mend itself. Trump is for a level playing field, lower taxes for individuals and corporations, tariffs as opposed to "free" trade, tighter border control, and fewer regulations.

While those proposals generally sound positive for US business, the devil is in the details. Policy leads reality and Trump's policies would likely put fire to the feet of fat-cat corporate types, ending the corruption and control frauds that plague business and government alike.

Yesterday's drop on the markets was not a one-time event and it also had nothing at all to do with the Fed and their FOMC meeting, which wraps up 2:00 pm ET Wednesday. As has been the case for the past ten months, the Fed will huff and puff and then do nothing. It's obviously too close to the election for the Fed to do anything that might upset the apple cart.

With a Trump presidency now a real, emerging possibility (since Clinton has finally been exposed as corrupt, incompetent, and dishonest) there may be more of these daily dips, especially if the media is forced to tell the truth about the economy and investments.

Time will tell. It's a week to the election and Trump is surging. Like it or not, stocks may take a dive and the economy will probably fall into a recession, all of which will be net positive for America. A good draining of the swamps in Washington and Wall Street is long overdue.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,037.10, -105.32 (-0.58%)

NASDAQ
5,153.58, -35.56 (-0.69%)

S&P 500
2,111.72, -14.43 (-0.68%)

NYSE Composite
10,414.05, -67.84 (-0.65%)

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Stocks Finish Week On Negative Note, Leans Toward Trump

As Fridays go, especially one in which the government reported 2.9% GDP growth, this one was particularly dull.

Perhaps the news that the FBI informed members of congress that they'd discovered new evidence (on former rep Anthony Weiner's phone, of all places) that gave rise to reopening the investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while secretary of state, her ties with the Clinton Foundation, pay for play, etc.

Investors are already nervous heading into the election on November 8, but news like what was released on Friday - abundant in speculation and short on details - has to make one consider running for the hills, or at least the nearest bug-out location.

Maybe it's nothing, but people with money invested always prefer calm to confusion, and the past six months (some say eight years) have been hard to figure.

Consequently, on Friday, stocks were up, then down, then unchanged, finally finishing with a small decline.

For the week, the Dow was the only major index to offer a gain, though a mere .05%. That makes sense, as, compared to the other indices, the Dow is considered the safest, comprised of 30 strong, dividend-yielding companies. The others were down on the week and for the third time in the past four, the NASDAQ - unsurprisingly, the most volatile - took the largest percentage loss, at -1.28%.

Correcting a slight but relevant detail in a previous post, it was stated that Friday was the final trading day of October. The calendar says otherwise, with Monday being the 31st and the key date by which to measure the stock market's ability to predict the presidential election. Being correct 82% of the tie since 1944, the S&P 500 would have to rally more than two percent on Monday for the prediction to call the election for Hillary Clinton.

If the S&P closes below 2,173.60 on Monday, the market predicts the next president will be Donald J. Trump.

Friday's Foibles:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,161.19, -8.49 (-0.05%)

NASDAQ
5,190.10, -25.87 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,126.41, -6.63 (-0.31%)

NYSE Composite
10,479.78, -23.28 (-0.22%)

Week ended 10/28

Dow: +15.48 (0.09%)
S&P 500: -14.75 (-0.69%)
NASDAQ: -67.30 (-1.28%)
NYSE Composite: -95.26 (-0.90%)

Friday, October 28, 2016

Special: Fighting Fraud Starts With Skepticism Of Statistics Like GDP

Stocks sold off slightly on Thursday, but, over the past few days and weeks, the real money has been moving in bonds, which - in the case of the US and Germany, at least - are sporting yields at or near multi-year highs.

The cause is mostly FUD, the arcane acronym invented on the internet standing for Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt. When bond traders get riffed, the world should take note, but, since we are preconditioned to focus our collective attention on stocks, most people don't realize where money is moving and why until it's too late. Interest rates rise, money tightens and flows into bonds because they are considered more stable and safer than stocks. Businesses and consumers face higher lending costs, the economy stalls, stocks decline. The process takes many months, often years, before the eventual recession occurs. Fortunes are made and lost, mostly made by savvy bond specialists and lost by individuals and stock investors.

It's a royal screw job on the middle and upper-middle class (or what's left of it) by monetary authorities and governments that have been skimming off the top through inflation, deflation, fractional reserve banking, taxes, fees, and penalties. If you feel like you've been screwed by either banks or the government (village, city, county, state, or federal), it's because you have been... often overtly, but more often, quietly, covertly, under the cover of "we're doing what's best for you," or increased spending, deficit spending, capital "improvements" or budget windfalls to schools, tunnels, roads, bridges, fire departments, special tax districts, et cetera ad nauseum.

It's why people are voting for Trump. No kidding. American voting-age citizens fall today grossly into two broad categories: 1) Working people or retired on fixed income, getting nowhere fast, watching their incomes stagnate since 1999, paying more for everything from health care to property taxes to cell phone or internet service to utilities; 2) Welfare, SSI disability or other entitlement recipients, government employees who care not a whit that everything is going to hell in a handbasket because they either a) get a rent subsidy, food stamps, and other goodies no matter what, for doing nothing, or, b) are a government employee getting an automatic annual raise regardless of their job performance or the economic condition of the country.

In between or outside these two mega-groups are the upper-upper crust of one-percenters who make their money off interest on investments and the swath of social security and pension retirees who have maxed out on the system. That large last group vectors in and out of the working class spectrum to a large degree and some are being largely disenfranchised in the same ways that the middle class has been, especially since 2001, when interest rates began tanking and savings no longer provided a great enough return to outpace inflation.

Older folks will remember better days, when banks paid 5% interest on savings. Forget that. It's gone. Just like the social security fund, which faces default and bankruptcy within 15 years, our best days are behind us. Baby boomers will be the last generation to get ahold of the golden ring of social security. Generations X and Y will get less and millennials will likely get little to nothing. The system broke in the 80s, under Ronald Reagan (sorry, conservatives, but that's the truth), and it's just gotten worse as banking regulations were eased (Clinton and congress conspired to eviscerate Glass-Steagall leading to the global collapse) and every president since Carter has stolen from the social security fund to pay general obligations.

What's multiple times worse is that not only has the federal government stolen from the future, but they've managed to run up enormous deficits nearly every year and add to the debt at an exponential rate.

Here at Money Daily we don't expect everyone to understand economics, but we do strive to encourage people to exercise a little common sense and have basic math skills. Since what the government does with money (spend more than they take in), it doesn't take a Ph.D. in anything to discern that if you did the same, your financial condition would deteriorate, slowly at first, then all at once, sending you and yours to the poor house.

So, the government does better? How do they perform this magic? Lies and deception, mostly, through the issuance of bonds, sold to the Fed, parceled out to primary dealers and sold again to investors of all stripes. The Fed then prints more money, which is spent throughout the economy. Banks used to multiply the money supply via fractional reserve lending but they don't do much of that anymore. They use accounting tricks, balance sheets nobody can comprehend and investments form the ordinary to the arcane (CDOs, for instance) rather than functioning under some form of fiscal discipline. It's all too easy for the government and the banking system to defraud everyone. They've been doing it for centuries. It gets reset from time to time, but the same powers that were become the powers that be. It's history, if you know where to find it.

So, to the point: Just moments ago, the Deptartment of Commerce reported its first estimate of third quarter GDP, coming in at a robust 2.9%, more than double the second quarter's stumbling 1.4%, all smoke and mirrors designed to elect Hillary Clinton as president, keep the status quo firmly entrenched, and continue your existence as a docile, dumb serf. When the numbers are revised in a month, and again another month later, and again in two years, the number will be much lower, but, by that time the elections will be long over, the winners will be still partying, and you will be getting screwed, again, and again, and again.

Just wait until October's job numbers come out next Friday, the final, big lie prior to the elections. It should be awesome, but it will still be a lie.

If you aren't gardening, putting up solar panels, repairing an old car rather than buying a new one, scrimping and saving, buying gold and silver now, worry not, you soon will be.

Thursday's Tumble
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.68, -29.65 (-0.16%)

NASDAQ Composite
5,215.97, -34.29 (-0.65%)

S&P 500
2,133.04, -6.39 (-0.30%)

NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
10,503.06, -25.13 (-0.24%)

Thursday, October 27, 2016

In Run-Up To Election, Markets Remain Shaky

As outlined in yesterday's post, US stock indices have been down since the beginning of August, presaging to the positive for the challenger party in the presidential election race.

While the outcome of a Trump victory is far from certain, what is clear is that traders and speculators are taking note of the fragile condition of the US and global economies, both of which have been side-stepping into the future since the crash of 2008-09.

Markets function largely on faith and hope, despair and confusion, greed and fear, and there seems to be ample supplies of all emotions all around. Puzzling analysts is how exactly a Clinton presidency would benefit markets, if only to keep the controlling interests in charge for another four years.

That may not be the best of circumstances, as Mr. Trump points out, because the global condition is quite completely on edge politically and likely over the edge financially. Nation-states are overburdened in debt, which has found its way back to the minions, a cause for unrest and potentially explosive social events.

With all that in the marco view, US companies, in the midst of third quarter earnings season, are, as has been the case for the past three years, struggling to find profits and any reason to be upbeat for the remainder of 2016 and into 2017.

There seems to be a dull thud re-occurring in the offices of CFOs and CEOs, that being the repeating sound of falling EPS and missed revenue figures, a double whammy for investors, though not many have fled the market as of this writing.

Thursday represents perhaps the biggest day of earnings season. Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon.com (AMZN), LinkedIn (LNKD) and Baidu (BIDU) are among companies set to report after the bell. Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY), Ford (F) and UPS (UPS) all report prior to the opening bell.

These results and some economic data (durable goods, pending home sales) will shape the day's trading. With just two days left in October, there's a slim chance that markets could rally back to positive for the past three months, which would be a good omen for the Hillary camp, but it is unlikely to happen unless some major news breaks that would spur a buying panic. It's happened before, but expect more oddities prior to election day next week.

Wednesday's Final Score:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,199.33, +30.06 (0.17%)

NASDAQ
5,250.27, -33.13 (-0.63%)

S&P 500
2,139.43, -3.73 (-0.17%)

NYSE Composite
10,528.19, -22.00 (-0.21%)

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Stocks Predict The Next President Should Be Trump

Wall Street people pride themselves largely upon their particular abilities, especially those who use other people's money (OPM) to wager, gamble, or speculate on investments.

They brag, they boast, some of them actually tell the truth from time to time about their overall performance in the markets, whether their specialty be in stocks, bonds, commodities, or currencies.

Claims by some that they have peculiar, timely, or otherwise savvy insights into the future - akin to soothsayers, fortune tellers and gypsy tarot card readers - are, as time goes by, either validated or proven worthless. A spotty track record is by no means a cause for shame or contrition. Rather, these various prognosticators continue to spew pablum, intending to coerce a generally ill-informed public that their positions are the ones that matter.

As the time until the general election dwindles to under two weeks, one thing the Wall Street elite have not - by and large - weighed in upon is the result of the presidential sweepstakes. That's probably for good reason. Like 95% of the general public, they aren't convinced of an outcome either in favor of Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, but, few have expressed their sentiments on what will happen after either is elected.

While there are those who say that the stock market will take a hit if Donald Trump is the next president, few, if any, figure that a Clinton win would be bad for investors. Oddly enough, almost nobody is saying the stock market will roar whichever candidate wins.

That's a perspective that is based largely on stock market returns and historical fact. According to this CNN story, since 1944, the direction of the stock market between August 1 and October 31 has correctly predicted the outcome of the election a stunning 82% of the time.

The metric is startlingly simple. If the market is up during the three months prior to the election, the incumbent party wins. If the market is down, the challenger is swept into office.

As of this writing, that measure favors Donald J. Trump, the challenger, but only slightly. On July 29, the final trading day prior to August 1, the S&P 500 stood at 2,173.60. It closed on Tuesday at 2143.16, about 1 1/2 percent off during the span.

There are three trading days left in the predicted period. It's possible that a strong rally could lift the averages back above the August 1 level, though it is beginning to appear more gloomy for Mrs. Clinton, the more the media bashes Trump and ignores the continuous, outrageous, potentially criminal behavior of the former First Lady and Secretary of State.

With the markets set to open in about a half hour, futures are lower. If this trend continues, get ready for a Trump presidency and the ascendancy of a moralistic, populist, business-first new regime in Washington.

Change at the top and across the political spectrum would likely be a boon to the majority of working Americans. After all, they're the ones that really matter, right?

Tuesday Trauma:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,169.27, -53.76 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ
5,283.40, -26.43 (-0.50%)

S&P 500
2,143.16, -8.17 (-0.38%)

NYSE Composite
10,550.19, -41.12 (-0.39%)

Monday, October 10, 2016

Fearless Rick Predicts: Trump To Win In Landslide Victory

Dispensing with the usual market noise and fury, today let’s look at the political spectrum, in particular, the presidential race.

In the aftermath of the leaked Trump video, the further Wikileaks of Hillary Clinton’s speeches to the Wall Street elite, and Sunday night’s debate, a common theme has emerged. The Democrats have, as usual, nothing more than empty rhetoric and the politics of personal destruction.

Republican candidate Trump has been dealt a bag of lies, dirty tricks, one-sided media reportage and bias, inaccurate, dubious polling data, slurs, baits, and typical trash talk, but he has not folded, not has he bent to the pressure in the least.

While Donald Trump may not be the ideal Republican candidate, he is largely better than his Democrat rival, Hillary Clinton, whose over 30 years of public service have yielded no tangible, positive results for the majority of Americans.

Trump is correct in pointing out that the Democrats - for whom the African-American populace slavishly vote for in every election, be it local, state or national in scale - have done nothing to enhance the ling conditions of the black community. The same goes for nearly every other minority. The Democrats are full of promises and negligent on deliverance. It is the same tactic trotted out year after year, in election after election. Democrats preach equality and tolerance, but demonstrate neither.

It’s time for Americans to see through the Democrat party as nothing more than socialism on steroids. Every problem is solved by more policies, more spending, higher taxes, greater regulation. The majority of taxpaying people in this country (and even tax-avoiders) are - or should be - fed up with the dictates and policies promulgated by the left and they should be energized enough to put an end to it next month, when millions will make their voices heard through their votes.

There are no sure things in life, but if ever there was a moment for a complete convulsion in the fabric of American life, it is now. Eight years of Obama’s socialism has led to this moment. Mr. Trump has prevailed over all his Republican rivals, many of whom - as much a part of the elite status quo as the Democrats - have withdrawn their support or never supported the nominee at all.

Hillary Clinton is another empty suit. Donald Trump is a businessman who has had great success and celebrity over the years. The Democrats have tried in vain to denigrate and demonize him precisely because they are afraid of losing the election and increasingly desperate.

If the truth be known, most of the polls are so wickedly biased toward the Democrats (see this story by Sharyl Attkisson for more) they cannot be believed. This race is not even close. More and more people are being swayed by the power of Trump’s persuasion for a greater America, for a return to traditional values, for supporting the constitution, lowering taxes, eliminating regulations and improving the quality of life for the middle class.

There should be no doubt when the buttons are pushed or levers pulled. Donald Trump will win the presidential election in an absolute, stunning landslide on a scale of Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980.

The only caveat - and it is a serious one - is if the election is rigged and stolen outright by the Democrats or the powers that be. Both sides have done it and there is a very good chance that if Clinton is seen as losing midday on November 8, all bets are off, all votes will be nullified electronically or by other means. It’s a real threat, but, otherwise, Donald Trump will win convincingly.

Monday's Markets:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,329.04, +88.55 (0.49%)

NASDAQ
5,328.67, +36.27 (0.69%)

S&P 500
2,163.66, +9.92 (0.46%)

NYSE Composite
10,682.71, +55.79 (0.53%)

Monday, October 3, 2016

Stocks Start Fourth Quarter With Losses

Whether or not this blue Monday proves to be ominous for equity investors in the newly-birthed quarter will be proven out over the coming weeks and months, but the roller coaster ride the major indices have taken the past few months have proven only that the market is confused, somewhat directionless, and hopelessly overvalued.

Just a little push in the downward direction could spell doom for stocks, but hopes are high for Hillary in the election and a continuation of the crony capitalism that spells M-O-N-E-Y for Wall Street.

So rigged is the game in the canyons of lower Manhattan that most CEOs, professional fund managers and just about anybody with any skin in the game in down with Clinton and more of the same, despite the fact that Mr. Trump is a born and bred New Yorker, a businessman and a hard-driving deal-maker.

The system is so collapsed, it is fast approaching a condition that puts it in need of serious surgery rather than simple triage.

Considering the up-and-down cycle of what passes for markets in America, today's little dip into the red probably will amount to nothing, and that's a non-cynical point of view.

Welcome to the fourth quarter.

Monday's Miss:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,253.85, -54.30 (-0.30%)

NASDAQ
5,300.87, -11.13 (-0.21%)

S&P 500
2,161.20, -7.07 (-0.33%)

NYSE Composite
10,689.47, -32.27 (-0.30%)

Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Presidential Debate Past; Stocks Return To Normal

With the results of Monday night's presidential debate clearly a mainstream victory for Hillary Clinton (according to the mainstream media, naturally), investors got the "all clear" Tuesday morning and immediately set about erasing the previous day's losses to a large extent.

There was nothing of note in the way of financial news, so the political news would have to suffice, and it apparently did.

With nothing now standing in the way of a Hillary Clinton victory in the November election, the smug Wall Street crowd felt good enough to boost stock prices for the average investor, despite Donald Trump's warning that the Fed was blowing bubbles and playing politics. Maybe the election doesn't matter that much.

All's well.

Tuesday's Shuffle
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,228.30, +133.47 (0.74%)

NASDAQ
5,305.71, +48.22 (0.92%)

S&P 500
2,159.93, +13.83 (0.64%)

NYSE Composite
10,657.18, +32.30 (0.30%)

Monday, September 26, 2016

Stocks Slide Again; Is Market Anticipating A Trump Victory Or Government Shutdown?

Stocks fell for the second straight session, extending losses from Friday to open the new week.

Causes for the two-day selling spree are questionable, but Monday's New Home Sales release by the Commerce Department may be a good place to start. After surging in July, new home sales fell 7.6% nationally, following a July surge.

Perhaps even more troubling is that the median price of a new home sold in August was down 3.1% from July and down 5.3% from a year earlier.

That's a real problem because the home-selling business has been anything but brisk, though price increases were a good sign for the Federal Reserve, which is dying to find any hint of inflation (they love it; consumers hate it). Thus, if new homes are selling at a discount from the year earlier, one could probably safely assume that existing homes are seeing price pressure to the downside as well.

Extrapolating from what is normally regarded as the biggest single purchase in a person's life, the cost of a home (or rent) going lower is going to put the brakes on inflation in a very large way, perhaps in a way that many people looking to sell are not going to appreciate. Recall that the last housing bust was a scant eight years ago. There are still underwater homeowners in various stages of despair, though the numbers have eased significantly over the years.

A downturn in housing prices, while great for new buyers, are overall anathema for the economy. How that squares with Wall Street's ongoing love-hate affair with the Fed and the call for higher interest rates is as yet unknown, but, after last week's stall on raising rates there's the distinct possibility that the Fed has called the market's bluff for the final time.

A FOMC meeting is sceduled for the first week in November, just prior to the election, so there's almost zero probability that the Fed would raise rates at that point, upsetting not just the market but the political class as well. That leaves December as the last chance for the Fed to raise rates, and looking back at their last December hike (a market disaster), there's some thinking that the almighty Fed may not want to repeat that particular episode.

One other potentiality for the sudden downturn in stocks is that inside money is looking seriously at a Donald Trump victory in November. Tonight's first debate (of three) between the Donald and Hillary Clinton may be a watershed moment in US political history. The most recent polls have the two candidates nearly even, as Mr. Trump has eviscerated Clinton's large post-convention lead, especially in some key battleground states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

Why large investors may be nervous about a Trump victory is the gnawing, belly-aching suspicion that Trump may be good for small business but bad for big business. His platform is not well-formed, but, he has used the words "crony capitalism" to his populist advantage. It's code for "no more business as usual" which means many of the larger firms (think S&P 500) that have benefited from decades of competition-crushing regulations and legislation may be looking at a more level playing field which puts small businesses on a better footing, something with which they have no relevant experience. That opens up new possibilities that favor smaller competitors taking market share from larger ones, to the ultimate detriment of the US stock market, but probably to the betterment of the overall economy.

Not withstanding any other reasons to fear a Trump presidency, the elitists on Wall Street and in the nation's capitol simply do not know what to expect. That's why they're the status quo and Donald Trump spells big danger.

Another rationale for a market downturn is the continuing drama over keeping the federal government operating past this coming Friday. The president and congress are doing their usual dance of death surrounding a continuing resolution rater than an actual budget to avoid a government shutdown and the Friday deadline is looming large.

Lastly, this being the last week of September, maybe the marketeers are gearing up for an October to remember, as has occurred on numerous occasions in the past. Market crashes and corrections always seem to pop up in the harvest month, and this one offers even more uncertainty than usual.

Blue Monday:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,094.83, -166.62 (-0.91%)

NASDAQ
5,257.49, -48.26 (-0.91%)

S&P 500
2,146.10, -18.59 (-0.86%)

NYSE Composite
10,624.88, -93.11 (-0.87%)

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Fed Holds, Market Stuck; Donald Trump A Viable Alternative

The stage is set for the presidential election and the Fed will try its best to not influence it (that is, unless Hillary Clinton is losing).

At its most recent meeting - which ended this past Wednesday with the usual "no change" announcement - the FOMC decided that there wasn't enough positive economic data to support raising rates, despite record low unemployment according to official sources.

Thise in the know understand that the Fed cannot and will not (the next meeting is scheduled for November 1-2) raise interest rates prior to the election (November 8) because any increase, such as the lonesome one of 0.25% back in December of last year, would cause a market panic and sharp selloff of stocks.

The condition is asinine, akin to preparing a race horse for racing and then continually scratching the nag before the event.

Members of the Fed continue to jawbone about raising rates, which keeps their fragile authority intact. The truth is that they lost control back in 2008, and have done nothing to retain or repair the confidence of the populace, though, due to normalcy bias, everybody keeps using fiat money and going along for the zero interest rate ride for the time being.

These policies cannot last forever, thus it may become fashionable and even predictable to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Trump is a change agent, one feared in the halls of congress, statehouses and even in the conference rooms of the Fed's Eccles building.

Stocks are overpriced because there is no alternative for many large investors, and that's a danger.

So, get ready for a rocky road ahead. The first presidential debate is Monday, and that event could change the dynamics for November and the immediate future.

Stay tuned and stay liquid.

Friday's Closing Prices:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,261.45, -131.01 (-0.71%)

NASDAQ
5,305.75, -33.78 (-0.63%)

S&P 500
2,164.69, -12.49 (-0.57%)

NYSE Composite
10,717.99, -75.67 (-0.70%)

The week:
Dow: +137.65 (0.76%)
NASDAQ: +61.18 (1.17%)
S&P 500: +25.53 (1.19%)
NYSE Composite: +185.72 (1.76)

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Markets Brace For FOMC Nothing-Burger

Just in case you're keeping score at home, stocks remain in caution mode prior to the FOMC rate policy announcement due out tomorrow at 2:00 pm EDT.

Consensus sentiment is that the governors will do what they've done at every meeting except one since the end of 2008... nothing.

Federal funds rate will likely remain at 0.25-0.50, or effectively zero, and the financial world will once again be treated to the numb mumbling and vague interpretations of data by Chairwoman Janet Yellen at a press conference a half hour after the announcement.

This is all nonsense, all for show, and all for naught. Any attempt at "normalization" (as the Fed likes to put it) will send the interest on US debt to astronomical levels, upsetting the entire global financial universe.

It is precisely why the Fed and other central banks cannot raise rates, or, if they somehow choose to do so, it will be a gradual, drawn out process, because the unwinding of 5, 7, 10, and 30-year notes and bonds will take that many years. Unless the Fed intends to bankrupt all existing nation-states - always a possibility - interest rate increases will be gradual, if at all. The central banks have no way out of the mess they've created, except by creating another, even worse mess.

Tomorrow, like today and the day before, will be nothing but a dog-and-pony show, and a bad one at that.

Nothing even close to important will occur prior to the November elections. The Fed and their buddies are hoping that Hillary Clinton remains alive long enough to win and then, last until January 20, when she will supposedly assume the throne of president of the United States of America.

Those are two possibilities that fewer and fewer people are putting on hard money. There is one good future for the USA, and it does not include a Clinton presidency.

Tuesday's Close:
Dow 30
18,129.96, +9.79 (0.05%)

NASDAQ
5,241.35, +6.33 (0.12%)

S&P 500
2,139.76, +0.64 (0.03%)
^NYA

NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
10,573.98, +9.68 (0.09%)

Friday, September 16, 2016

Confusion Reigns In Advance Of FOMC Interest Rate Meeting

Depending upon your individual point of view, Friday's trading was either remarkable or expected.

Following Thursday's ramp-up on news that retail sales were still slumping - leading many to believe the Fed would not dare raise rates next week - stocks opened the day in the red and remained there.

This being a triple-or-quad witching options expiration day, the downdraft could signify many things, but mostly that traders had done their best to capitalize on Thursday, before the rush to close out positions.

That's the most reliable explanation for Friday's fumble, though hardly one adequate enough.

The week ending on a downbeat means little, except that there was some selling in the face of uncertainty over the weekend and leading up to the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday.

Despite the considerable volatility in play, Dow and S&P stocks ended the week roughly where they began, the NASDAQ was ahead by more than two percent, with the NYSE Composite three-quarters of a percent lower, leaving everyone equally confused.

Betting types will be putting their money on the Fed leaving rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting, not wanting to damage the chances for Hillary Clinton any further than the candidate has done so herself.

Friday's Close:
Dow Jones Industrial Average
18,123.80, -88.68 (-0.49%)

NASDAQ
5,244.57, -5.12 (-0.10%)

S&P 500
2,139.16, -8.10 (-0.38%)

NYSE Composite
10,529.83, -73.11 (-0.69%)

For the Week:
Dow: +38.35 (0.25%)
NASDAQ: +118.66 (2.31%)
S&P 500: +11.35 (0.53%)
NYSE Composite: -80.00 (-0.76%)

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Volatility Returns As Stocks Retrace Friday's Losses

Writing just after noon on Tuesday, stocks seem to be in a certain funk over the future of not just corporate earnings, but the direction of the Federal Reserve and the outcome of the 2016 presidential race.

On the latter, Hillary Clinton's continued lying (even about her health, which is in terrible condition) may be costing her the election, to say nothing of the idea that many people who may have held their noses and voted for the Democrat status quo choice over the maverick Trump, may be changing their minds given that Hillary may not be able to effectively serve as president, yet alone make it to the finish line in the election process come November.

While Trump has held his tongue over Hillary's health issues, he continues to gain in the polls and in popularity with the American people. With the election less than two months away, any more gaffes by Clinton could prove fatal to her presidential aspirations, which, in the long run, would likely be a good thing for the American public.

Wall Street doesn't apparently appreciate the way things are going, though with Hillary losing ground, there's even less chance that the FOMC will announce a rate hike at their meeting next week. Trump's bashing of Janet Yellen earlier is also weighing on markets, and while the stock market may not like the way he's talking, as usual, he's speaking the unblemished truth: stocks are overpriced due to Fed meddling.

Is this how it all ends, with a Trump presidency and a wholesale cleansing of the sick economic policy apparatus?

We can only hope.

After Monday's dead-cat rally, stocks have given back all of those gains by midday, and then some. Get ready for a rocky ride this afternoon and more days of heightened volatility to come as the election takes precedence over all other economic and political events.