Coronavirus Spread Now Affecting Markets Globally Along With Individual Stocks, Bonds

As the novel coronavirus continues to spread internationally from its epicenter in Wuhan, the capitol of Hubei province, China, expect markets to respond as they did on Wednesday, where US gains at the opening bell were quickly wiped out. The Dow Industrials, in particular, soared more than 200 points at the open, only to be torn down to nearly unchanged within the first half hour of trading.

All of the major indices experienced similar patterns, and all were goosed higher by a phantom bid as they approached session lows. There was likely intervention behind the scenes which kept stocks from falling off the shelf into the abyss, as was the case on Monday.

With just three days of real data relatable to coronavirus, the infectious virus is undoubtably a market event. As has already been demonstrated, oil was the first casualty as crude prices have cratered since the Chinese government quarantined the entire Wuhan province last week and began issuing travel warnings.

Others are emerging. Starbucks (SBUX), which announced it was shutting down 2000 locations in China on Wednesday - about half of its stores in China - has seen its share price reduced from 93.75 on January 23 to 86.72 as of Wednesday's close. While the losses on Starbucks may be more attributable to the release of their fiscal first quarter (US fourth quarter) results on Tuesday, there are other chains which may be affected soon, Among those that have large presences in China are McDonald's (MCD), YUM Brands (YUM), owners of Pizza Hut and KFC, among other popular brands, and Dairy Queen, which is privately owned. Share of McDonald's and YUM Brands have been spared thus far, but the are definitely on many traders' short lists.

Also being affected are bond prices and yields, as the treasury curve has flattened out over the past week and the 10-year note has been knocked to to a yield of 1.58% as of this writing, the lowest since October 8 of last year. All yields on short term bills are currently inverted vis-a-vis the five-year note, with yields on 1, 2, 3, 6-month and one-year bills all higher than the five-year. The scramble to safety seems to be favoring shorter duration, a knock-on effect of a wait-and-see approach to the spread of the deadly virus.

As of Wednesday night (ET), Chinese authorities upped the death toll from the virus to 170, though experts in the field strongly suspect that China's officials are purposely skewing the numbers lower - reporting many deaths as caused by pneumonia or not reporting deaths at all in some cases - in order to not cause a widespread panic. Nevertheless, both the number of cases reported and deaths reported - in China and internationally - continue to rise, and person-to-person transmission of the disease has now been reported in South Korea, Germany, Thailand, and Japan. With an incubation period that can last up to 14 days before symptoms develop, it may take more time for numbers to rise dramatically.

The World Health Organization (WHO) is scheduled to make an announcement Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland at 7.30 pm local time (1830 GMT), which would coincide with the middle of the US market session. Expect fireworks to the downside if the organization deems the coronavirus a global pandemic situation, something it decided not to do when it met a week ago (January 23).

Elsewhere, the impeachment trial of president Trump is winding down quickly and it appears that the Republicans have enough votes to shut down any attempt by the Democrats to extend the process by calling more witnesses. With a 53-47 advantage in the Senate, the Republicans are expected to defeat any measure calling for anything that might extend the trial past Friday, when the vote on witnesses is set to occur.

Once the vote for witnesses is defeated, the Senate can move immediately to decide the trial either in favor of acquittal of the president or guilty, which would carry the penalty of removal from office and bar him from running for any other high office. With a two-thirds vote needed for a finding of guilt, it is widely expected that the president will be acquitted.

The prosecution managers and administration lawyers will field another day of questions from the Senators on Thursday, then proceed to voting on other trial matters Friday.

At the Close, Wednesday, January 29, 2020:
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 28,734.45, +11.60 (+0.04%)
NASDAQ: 9,275.16, +5.48 (+0.06%)
S&P 500: 3,273.40, -2.84 (-0.09%)
NYSE: 13,843.81, -33.80 (-0.24%)