WEEKEND WRAP: Fed Fiat Funny Money Has Managed to Short-Circuit the Crisis, for Now

Against a backdrop of Great Depression-like numbers - 33 million Americans out of work and an "official" unemployment rate of 14.7% - equity investors enjoyed a remarkably positive week, with all major indices rising by at least 2.50%, with the NASDAQ leading the way with a six percent gain.

The NASDAQ's advance was not only remarkable, but it is also ludicrous. The tech-heavy index has advanced beyond both its 50 and 200-day moving averages and is within 720 points of its all-time high. Investors in the speculative sector of the market have either divorced themselves from reality or are seeing something the rest of the world is missing. Money has to go somewhere, even money from the Federal Reserve, released to companies across the investing spectrum, but most of it appears to be heading toward Silicon Valley.

No doubt, chasing momentum has amplified the absurd move to the NASDAQ, which is likely a dangerous precedent. Many of the companies moving higher sport P/E ratios well above the norm, even the norm in a major bull market, a position that was shattered eight weeks ago.

Some of the standouts in the nebulous NASDAQ unicorn universe include Alphabet, parent of Google (GOOG), bottomed out at 1056.62 on March 23, and closed Friday at 1388.37.

Netflix (NFLX) fell out at 298.84 on March 16, but has since rebounded to Friday's close of 435.55.

Amazon (AMZN) reached an all-time high of 2474.00 on April 16, after dropping to 1676.61 on March 12, an amazing gain of 47.6% in just over a month. Amazon may be a superb, dynamic company, but it's arguably extremely overvalued, with a P/E of 113.

Facebook (FB) finished at 146.01 on March 16 and closed at 212.35 on Friday.

Some investors have been getting fat while the larger economy has, for the most part, imploded.

As almost all states (47 of 50 as of Saturday, May 9) have at least partially reopened their businesses and relaxed stay-at-home and other restrictions on the populace, anecdotal reports show that business is still a long distance from anything approaching normal, i.e., prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wall Street is pushing a narrative that the country and the economy is all well and good, the recovery - in terms of stock prices - well underway, even as cases of coronavirus are still prevalent and rising in some cases and deaths continue at a run rate of over 1,000 a day. How well that works out for investors won't likely be known for some time. For now, investors, and the companies getting the most attention, are sitting pretty.

Crude oil continued to be under pressure from both a supply glut and slack demand, hovering in the mid-20s throughout the week. The June contract on WTI crude rose from $19.78 last Friday (May 1) to $24.74 a barrel this Friday (May 8). The contract expires within two weeks and there hasn't really been much improvement on the supply side of the equation, though demand has improved as the United States and most other countries around the world have begun getting back to business.

The treasury curve steepened over the course of the week. The entire complex is covered by 129 basis points as of Friday, up from 117 the prior week. All of the yield gains were at the long end. As money rushed out of bonds and back into stocks on Friday, the 10-year note added six basis points, to 0.69. The 30-year bond yield gained from 1.31 to 1.39.

Precious metals continued to be among the most-desired asset class since the onset of the pandemic. Both gold and silver are selling at massive premiums (up to $200 for gold, 40-80% for silver) and dealers are still experiencing supply issues with many popular items out of stock, though available to order. Delivery times have come back a bit, with gold and silver in quantity available within two weeks of placing orders.

Here are representative recent prices (5/9-5/10) on eBay for standard gold and silver coins and bars (prices include shipping):
Item: Low / High / Average / Median
1 oz silver coin: 24.45 / 38.00 / 30.58 / 30.48
1 oz silver bar: 23.00 / 30.95 / 26.77 / 26.20
1 oz gold coin: 1,750.00 / 1,946.65 / 1,854.84 / 1,841.99
1 oz gold bar: 1,799.99 / 1,871.52 / 1,843.90 / 1,851.47

In cryptocurrency-land, the Bitcoin Halving approaches. Fr those unfamiliar with the concept, the "halving" is the predetermined moment when Bitcoin’s block subsidy gets cut in half. The halving of Bitcoin’s block subsidy occurs every 210,000 blocks (approximately every four years) and is a key feature of Bitcoin. It is because of the Halving that there is a capped supply of 21 million bitcoin that will ever exist. The halving is scheduled to take place Monday at approximately 6:49 pm ET.

Bitcoin surpassed the $10,000 mark in US dollars, but fell back to the $8850 range in anticipation of the event.

And, just to throw another spanner into the works, the government of Argentina failed to reach agreement with creditors by its self-imposed Friday deadline, essentially defaulting on $65 billion worth of bonds, though talks between the two sides are continuing. Argentina will formally default on May 22, as it missed a $503 million payment last month and the grace period is expiring.

Talks were extended through Monday in hopes that Argentina could avoid its ninth sovereign default.

At this juncture, everything is at risk. According to recent economic data, the global economy is flat on its back. Most developed countries are either in a recession or about to enter one. The response to the coronavirus has ramped up unemployment and knocked down GDP estimates.

Thanks to massive infusions of capital from the Fed and other central banks to both business and individuals, the crisis has been managed to a degree, but the future remains a guessing game. Whether or not QE to infinity will save the day - and the underlying currencies - is a real gamble.

At the close, Friday, May 8, 2020:
Dow: 24,331.32, +455.43 (+1.91%)
NASDAQ: 9,121.32, +141.66 (+1.58%)
S&P 500: 2,929.80, +48.61 (+1.69%)
NYSE: 11,354.34, +232.68 (+2.09%)

For the Week:
Dow: +607.63 (+2.56%)
NASDAQ: +516.37 (+6.00%)
S&P 500: +99.09 (+3.50%)
NYSE: +295.77 (+2.67%)