Key To Recovery Will Be Demographics, Especially Millennials and Generation Z

For years, it's been widely reported - thus assumed to be true - that 10,000 Baby Boomers retire every day, and, the numbers generally hold to that standard. That's an enormous number of people leaving work permanently, ostensibly their positions replaced by younger people with years to go before hitting the porch rocker and shuffleboard courts.

It's 3,650,000 people a year, so, logically, there should be plenty of job openings for those both after 1964, the official end of the Baby Boom generation (1946-64). But, is that enough? The generations following the Baby Boomers - Generation X: (1965 – 1980), Millennials: (1981 – 1996) and Generation Z: (1997 – 2012) - make up 62.28% of the population, though anyone in Generation Z born later than 2003 hasn't yet entered the workforce, many of them still in college.

Thus, Generation X and Millennials comprise nearly 42% of the adult population and workforce, roughly 138 million and they make up the bulk of the US labor force. Baby Boomers account for just 69 million, and, as of 2020, most of them haven't reached full retirement age (65-67). Those born in 1954 just turned 66 last year. There's 10 more years (1955-1964) of Baby Boomers still heading toward the glory years, still out there grinding away at 57, 60, or 62.

The math works out pretty well because it's not straight line calculus. Just because a Baby Boomer retires, does not mean that a Gen. Z college graduate will replace them. Jobs change over time. Many of the jobs Baby Boomers started out doing in their 20s aren't around any more. Factory jobs, for instance, have almost all gone to China or elsewhere. Telephony has morphed into cellular and the internet. And many of the jobs that remain now require a greater skill set, such as auto mechanics, the best of whom now must have a working understanding of computers n addition to basic car repair skills.

Over time, the labor market, despite many moving parts, is fairly static, and there are fewer Gen. Z individuals coming out of high schools and colleges than there are Baby Boomers retiring. From a demographic economic standpoint, there should be enough jobs available to support new entrants.

However, with 20 million people currently receiving unemployment benefits, the lockdowns from 2020 put a real kink in the link between generations and work. Workers aged 16-24 were hardest hit by work from home and lockdown regimens. That age group saw unemployment rise from 8.4% to 24.4% from Spring 2019 to Spring 2020, which is why there have been three rounds of stimulus checks and rent moratoriums. Those young folks, the least economically capable of navigating though tough times because they had little savings, have been left behind by what used to be the economic powerhouse of the United States. They don't have skills, or money, or jobs. Three strikes and you're out. Suicides among this age group have soared. Going forward, the outlook for unskilled youth is bleak.

Still, officials in Washington, DC, and media talkers still claim that recovery is right around the corner. Demographics and the rise of technlogy say otherwise.

A bright spot can be found in a darker place. In addition to roughly 10,000 Baby Boomers retiring every day, more than 5,000 of them die every day, or, about one every 17 seconds. While not such a cheery subject, Baby Boomer deaths of that magnitude is releasing a tidal wave of capital, much of it going straight into - you know where - the stock market. Millennials being the primary beneficiaries (children of Boomers), they're inheriting homes, collections, junk drawers, used cars, and retirement accounts often worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, and there's more on the way. About 2/3rds of Boomers are still alive.

Without being too morbid, generational wealth being passed along is usually a positive development, and, while that's all well and good for Millennials, it doesn't help out the younger cohort in Generation Z, at least not directly.

The hope is that America will, as it has done in the past, find a way through this rough economic patch. The unemployed youth of today will become the leaders of tomorrow. The Silent Generation and the Greatest Generation, spawned by the Great Depression, built post-war America. Generation Z's opportunity is to help Millennials rebuild an aging infrastructure and lead development and advancement of new technologies. The challenge is to do so largely by disregarding the dictates and wrong-footed realities of the elected people, many of the leaders well into their 70s and 80s.

Youth must look beyond the finger-pointing cancel culture, the distractions, the anger and hate brewed up by the mainstream media and start shaping a better 21st century, already one-fifth wasted. It's not too late for younger people to rise up and take the reins.

Sensing that the aging oligarchs in government won’t relinquish control without a fight, there’s a strong likelihood that the economy will suffer some stresses along the way, making for what appears to be a tumultuous decade that’s just begun.

(Post #3001)

At the Close, Monday, March 22, 2021:
Dow: 32,731.20, +103.23 (+0.32%)
NASDAQ: 13,377.54, +162.31 (+1.23%)
S&P 500: 3,940.59, +27.49 (+0.70%)
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