Following the dip-buying earlier in the week, stocks tailed off significantly, as profit-taking superseded speculation with just two trading days remaining in 2024. Other than the ugliness of an extended 10-day slump in the Dow earlier in the month and a couple of downside moves in the other majors, unless there's a catastrophe, the year will go into the books as well above average, especially for mega-cap tech stocks like the Magnificent Seven.
Stocks
As a whole, Friday wiped out gains from the prior sessions of the holiday-shortened week. Next week will be likewise interrupted, closed on Wednesday for New Year's Day and a change of the calendar.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 11/22/2024 | 4.72 | 4.67 | 4.63 | 4.53 | 4.46 | 4.42 |
| 11/29/2024 | 4.76 | 4.69 | 4.58 | 4.52 | 4.42 | 4.30 |
| 12/06/2024 | 4.57 | 4.50 | 4.42 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.19 |
| 12/13/2024 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 4.34 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.24 |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.43 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.44 | 4.43 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.20 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 11/22/2024 | 4.37 | 4.32 | 4.30 | 4.35 | 4.41 | 4.67 | 4.60 |
| 11/29/2024 | 4.13 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.10 | 4.18 | 4.45 | 4.36 |
| 12/06/2024 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.03 | 4.09 | 4.15 | 4.42 | 4.34 |
| 12/13/2024 | 4.25 | 4.21 | 4.25 | 4.33 | 4.40 | 4.69 | 4.61 |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 4.52 | 4.79 | 4.72 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 4.53 | 4.62 | 4.89 | 4.82 |
With T-Bills virtually unmoved over the course of the week, spreads continued to blow out toward normalizing the curve structure. 2s-10s improved to +31; full spectrum ballooned out to +38 basis points.
In the uncertain environment as presidential administration changes hands, bond buyers are demanding higher yields for longer maturities. Since the election of Donald Trump on November 5, 10-year yields have risen 36 basis points, from 4.26% to 4.62%. 30-year yields are up 38 basis points, from 4.44% to the current 4.82%.
In spite of the Fed's seeming reluctance to continue rate cuts at the current pace (0.25% every meeting), 30-day yields remain near the high end of the federal funds rate of 4.25-4.50%, the market expressing reluctance toward looser conditions. Fear of inflation remains top-of-mind for bond participants, sensing that the Fed's policies have been more political than practical and that a complete economic story is not being adequately presented by Fed officials.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil was ahead slightly, closing at $70.26 Friday, up 68 cents from last Friday's $69.58. Economies that are slowing considerably continue to put pressure on prices. There's ample reason to believe that oil cannot be pricing at anything close to $70/barrel for much longer. Major economies in Europe and China continue to exhibit weakening conditions, while the U.S. has managed to paper over most of its shortcomings with hefty stock gains and a cheerleading financial press in tune with Wall Street snake oil salesmen.
Trump's tariffs and his commitment to domestic drilling will only serve to exacerbate the glut conditions in the market. Oil prices are stubbornly holding onto three-year lows, but that plateau of support is waning. Prices could easily deteriorate further from current levels.
Oil prices have been under pressure for the past eight months, falling from a peak of $86.91 on April 5.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump of $3.01 a gallon, a mere two cents down from last week.
California continues to be the price leader, at $4.31 a gallon, well below prices prevailing during the summer.
Pennsylvania prices stabilized this week at $3.21, with the Keystone State continuing as the price leader in the Northeast. New York was off a penny, at $3.10. Connecticut ($3.02) and Massachusetts ($3.01) were also stable, while Maryland remained below $3.00, staying right at to $2.89 per gallon. Even with holiday travel, prices are remaining close to 42-month lows.
Illinois dropped back down from $3.24 to $3.19. Ohio ($2.98) and Indiana ($2.99) slipped below $3.00 Sunday morning.
Fuel prices in Oklahoma ($2.52) continue to be the lowest in the nation, despite rising three cents this week. Following are Mississippi ($2.55), Texas ($2.59), Arkansas ($2.61) and Louisiana ($2.62), with Kansas at $2.64, Tennessee at $2.65. Alabama shows $2.69, South Carolina, $2.71, Missouri, $2.75. Florida's descent below $3.00 lasted only a week as the dip to $2.99 did not hold, currently tracking at $3.06 in the Sunshine State.
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in at least 32 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain over-$3.00 holdouts.
Arizona ($3.03) dropped another four cents on the week, continuing a long trend. Oregon checked in at $3.41, Nevada at $3.56, and Washington at $3.86, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($3.01) and Idaho ($3.06) remain just above the $3.00 threshold.
Bitcoin
This week: $94,597.53
Last week: $95,712.22
2 weeks ago: $103,002.00
6 months ago: $60,860.10
One year ago: $42,141.19
Five years ago: $7,355.39
Bitcoin continued this week to play Scrooge to its followers, testing down to the $94,000 level. Should bitcoin break below the very limited support shelf between $88,000 and $90,000, the next stop is clearly around $70,000.
Bitcoin should continue to correct. It has been its pattern since inception. Boo-hoo, hodlers. Lumps of coal might actually be worth more than your fantasy tokens. At least you can burn them for heat.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 87.50; last week: 87.78
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 11/29: $2,673.90
Gold price 12/6: $2,654.90
Gold price 12/13: $2,665.90
Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Silver price 11/29: $31.10
Silver price 12/6: $31.49
Silver price 12/13: $31.00
Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Prices appeared to be seeking bottoms in both gold and silver trading. A range from $2,570 to $2,610 should provide support for guld. Meanwhile, silver has broken down through support in the $30.50 - $30.60 range, in part because of slowing economies in major industrialized countries, with the possibility of finding secondary support around $28. That's not holding back small stackers on eBay from eagerly snatching up one-ounce finished goods anywhere from $35 to $45 per ounce.
Similarly, gold buyers continue to pay $100/ounce premia on small weights, a condition that's more or less persisted since the gold bull run began in 2000. On a percentage basis, a $100 premium on gold over spot amounts to around four percent, not nearly the 30-40% premium on small weight silver.
Silver's price is likely radically undervalued by the notorious riggers in the COMEX marketplace. One need look no further than the ridiculous gold:silver ratio, more than five times higher than the U.S. constitutional ratio of 16:1. The extreme ratio has been largely in effect since silver was de-monetized in the U.S. in 1964 and remains near the upper end of the range.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 34.25 | 44.95 | 39.48 | 40.00 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 36.95 | 46.62 | 40.75 | 40.38 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 2,680.00 | 2,806.13 | 2,746.43 | 2,736.30 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 2,690.00 | 2,789.61 | 2,742.11 | 2,733.73 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) was significantly higher, at $40.15, a gain of $2.05 from the December 22 price of $38.10 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
23 days and counting until the Biden years get swept unceremoniously into the dustbin of history. God help us.
At the Close, Friday, December 27, 2024:
Dow: 42,992.21, -333.59 (-0.77%)
NASDAQ: 19,722.03, -298.33 (-1.49%)
S&P 500: 5,970.84, -66.75 (-1.11%)
NYSE Composite: 19,238.48, -126.02 (-0.65%)
For the Week:
Dow: +151.95 (+0.35%)
NASDAQ: +149.43 (+0.76%)
S&P 500: +39.99 (+0.67%)
NYSE Composite: +119.04 (+0.62%)
Dow Transports: +138.67 (0.67%)
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