Late in the session, President Trump - and, mind you, Money Daily is of the opinion that he's great - was making his case for tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, reiterating that the tariffs will begin on February 1st (Saturday). Well, the computers that run 85-90% of the trading on the various indices, didn't like it very much, and, about 3:30 pm ET, the whole market began selling off, severely. The Dow, shown at right, was up about 250 points. 15 minutes later it was actually in the red. The NASDAQ and S&P did the same.
Then, at 3:45 pm, either the President said something the computers liked or somebody manually turned them off, or, an even worse possibility, some programmatic AI made them reverse course and head back up. No matter what, the idea that one person, regardless that he's the POTUS, shouldn't have that much influence on the entire stock market. It wasn't good that markets reacted wildly to pronouncements from the Fed. It's worse if they're going to go all goofy when Mr. Trump speaks, for a couple of reasons: 1) While the Fed makes its interest rate policy announcements at well-advertised, set times, the Trump pretty much sets his own schedule, and speaks about anything whenever he feels like it (he also tweets, truths, etc.); 2) Sometimes, Trump is making jokes or being sarcastic for dramatic effect. Computers aren't very good at picking up sarcasm (kind of like Sheldon Cooper on "The Big Bang Theory").
Can you see how things could go very wrong, very fast? Anyhow, markets, if they react like that - and they do - don't seem to be very safe places to put your retirement funds or savings, but, that's for everybody to decide on their own.
ExxonMobil reported earnings this morning. They returned EPS of $1.67, beating estimates, which is all well and good, but, ultimately, bad, because in the same period a year ago, they posted EPS of $1.91. Not so good.
This, however, is the most important part most people will miss:
The No. 1 U.S. oil producer reported total earnings of $33.46 billion for full-year 2024, down from $38.57 billion the year earlier.
That's a 13.25% drop. Sure, XOM is No. 1, with a bullet - to the back of the head. With oil prices declining, this company logically should be a candidate for shorting, as is any company that is experiencing profit declines year-over-year. Maybe it is. In October, shares were going for $125. As of Thursday's close, $109.57. Avoid.
Chevron (CVX) also reported Friday morning, posting adjusted EPS at $2.06 for the quarter, down from $3.45 a year. Consensus estimate was for $2.11. Chevron increased its quarterly dividend by 5%, hoping to keep some shareholders a while longer.
Many IRAs, 401k plans, etc. have this kind of dung as key holdings, which is why people shouldn't trust fund managers. They don't represent YOUR best interests.
Heading toward the open, stocks are looking at mixed week. Through Thursday's close, the Dow is up 457, but the NASDAQ is down 272, and the S&P is off 30 points. The January Effect, which posits that as goes January, so goes the remainder of the year, looks to be signaling plus signs.
Futures, as usual, are soaring. Gold hit another all-time high Thursday, with an ounce of shiny hitting $2,834.40. Silver topped out at $32.83. Oil pacing lower, with WTI hitting $72.40, a one-month low.
The Financial Times reported on Thursday that gold withdrawals from the Bank of England, which usually take a few days, are at four to eight-week backlogs. That's not a good sign for arbitrageurs, but great for stackers who already have a horde.
At the Close, Thursday, January 30, 2025:
Dow: 44,882.13, +168.61 (+0.38%)
NASDAQ: 19,681.75, +49.43 (+0.25%)
S&P 500: 6,071.17, +31.86 (+0.53%)
NYSE Composite: 20,166.22, +238.75 (+1.20%)
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