Big banks appear to be on solid footing with deposits growing and increased M&A activity. Wall Street cheered itself for undercutting inflation forecasts, spurring a wild Wednesday romp with more carryover effects Friday.
Stocks
Stocks turned in their best week since November, putting January solidly back in positive territory after some early new year jitters. The Dow and NYSE Composite out-performed the S&P and NASDAQ, though all the majors were markedly higher with Wednesday's big rally taking a day off Thursday before returning with gusto on Friday.
After two straight years of gains and a new sheriff in town (Trump), Wall Street is desperate to keep the punch bowl filled at all costs. There are uncertainties aplenty, which brings into question the wisdom of big gains just prior to expectations for big changes. Normally, as was demonstrable earlier in January, the stock market hates uncertainty. This week's rally may have been something on the order of a bull trap or a condition of "buy the rumor, sell the news." The coming week will provide more clues to the general direction of stocks, both near and long term.
Earnings will be highlighted in the coming week. After the nation's largest banks turned in solid fourth quarters, traders are expected good things through first quarter earnings season, with the bulk of publicly-owned companies reporting over the next three weeks. With Monday a national holiday (Martin Luther King Day), markets will be shuttered Monday. The big names to watch for earnings releases this week are the following:
Tuesday: CapitalOne (COF), 3M (MMM), Zions Bancorporation (ZION), DR Horton (DHI), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL)
Wednesday: Discover (DFS), Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Abbot Labs (ABT), Halliburton (HAL), Ally Bank (ALLY), Proctor & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Travelers (TRV), Comerica (CMA)
Thursday: American Airlines (AAL), CSX (CXS), McCormick (MKC), Union Pacific (UNP), Covenant Health (CVLG), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)
Friday: Ericsson (ERIC), Verizon (VZ), American Express (AXP)
The data calendar is light. Trump's Executive Orders and proclamations from the Oval Office will be the huge focus for the week and probably for many more weeks ahead.
Treasury Yield Curve Rates
| Date | 1 Mo | 2 Mo | 3 Mo | 4 Mo | 6 Mo | 1 Yr |
| 12/13/2024 | 4.43 | 4.43 | 4.34 | 4.36 | 4.32 | 4.24 |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.43 | 4.42 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.27 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.44 | 4.43 | 4.31 | 4.35 | 4.29 | 4.20 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4.44 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.31 | 4.25 | 4.18 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4.42 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.33 | 4.27 | 4.25 |
| 01/17/2025 | 4.43 | 4.35 | 4.34 | 4.32 | 4.28 | 4.21 |
| Date | 2 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr | 7 Yr | 10 Yr | 20 Yr | 30 Yr |
| 12/13/2024 | 4.25 | 4.21 | 4.25 | 4.33 | 4.40 | 4.69 | 4.61 |
| 12/20/2024 | 4.30 | 4.32 | 4.37 | 4.45 | 4.52 | 4.79 | 4.72 |
| 12/27/2024 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 4.53 | 4.62 | 4.89 | 4.82 |
| 01/03/2025 | 4.28 | 4.32 | 4.41 | 4.51 | 4.60 | 4.88 | 4.82 |
| 01/10/2025 | 4.40 | 4.46 | 4.59 | 4.70 | 4.77 | 5.04 | 4.96 |
| 01/17/2025 | 4.27 | 4.33 | 4.42 | 4.52 | 4.61 | 4.91 | 4.84 |
After rising by roughly one percent from when the Fed began lowering the federal funds target rate in September, 2024, longer maturities (2 years out to 30 years) began to backtrack after December CPI showed the core falling short of expectations, even though headline year-over-year CPI has risen the last three months, from 2.4% in September, to 2.6% in October, 2.7% in November, and the latest, 2.9% for December.
Wall Street sorely needs January to come in positive, bolstering the concept that January presages the market for the rest of the year. Thus, analysts and stock-pumpers cherry-picked the CPI number, finding one that they liked, ignoring the undeniable fact - provided by their very own number-fudgers at the BLS - that inflation continues to rise overall. Prices are not coming down; they're only rising at a slower pace than recently.
It needs to be pointed out that the Fed's ill-advised 100 basis points worth of cuts in September, November, and December, had the expected effect of causing price increases on most goods and services. The Fed, trapped as it is, continues to try to walk the tightrope between keeping the economy chugging along and keeping prices under control. They're actually failing at both.
With Trump readying tariffs on almost anything that is imported into the U.S., the Fed and their Wall Street banking cohorts continue to pedal the lie that inflation is under control and the economy is strong. The next three to six months will provide evidence as to whether they are right or lying through clenched teeth.
Spreads contracted, with 2s-10s dropping three basis points, and full spectrum (30 days out to 30 years) flattening by 13 basis points, from +54 to +41 over the course of the week.
As with stocks, there was some racing to get ahead of the pack prior to the completion of presidential transition on Monday. Whether they were prescient or just plucky will begin to become clear within the first 10 days of Trump's administration.
Spreads:
2s-10s
9/15/2023: -69
9/22/2023: -66
9/29/2023: -44
10/06/2023: -30
10/13/2023: -41
10/20/2023: -14
10/27/2023: -15
11/03/2023: -26
11/10/2023: -43
11/17/2023: -44
11/24/2023: -45
12/01/2023: -34
12/08/2023: -48
12/15/2023: -53
12/22/2023: -41
12/29/2023: -35
1/5/2024: -35
1/12/2024: -18
1/19/2024: -24
1/26/2024: -19
2/2/2024: -33
2/9: -31
2/16: -34
2/23: -41
3/1: -35
3/8: -39
3/15: -41
3/22: -37
3/28: -39
4/5: -34
4/12: -38
4/19: -35
4/26: -29
5/3: -31
5/10: -37
5/17: -39
5/24: -47
5/31: -38
6/7: -44
6/14: -47
6/21: -45
6/28: -35
7/5: -32
7/12: -27
7/19: -24
7/26: -16
8/2: -08
8/9: -11
8/16: -17
8/23: -09
8/30: 00
9/6: +06
9/13: +09
9/20: +18
9/27: +20
10/4: +5
10/11: +13
10/18: +13
10/25: +14
11/1: +16
11/8: +5
11/15: +12
11/22: +4
11/29: +5
12/6: +5
12/13: +15
12/20: +22
12/27: +31
1/3: +32
1/10: +37
1.17: +34
Full Spectrum (30-days - 30-years)
9/15/2023: -109
9/22/2023: -99
9/29/2023: -82
10/06/2023: -64
10/13/2023: -82
10/20/2023: -47
10/27/2023: -54
11/03/2023: -76
11/10/2023: -80
11/17/2023: -93
11/24/2023: -95
12/01/2023: -105
12/08/2023: -123
12/15/2023: -154
12/22/2023: -149
12/29/2023: -157
1/5/2024: -133
1/12/2024: -135
1/19/2024: -118
1/26/2024: -116
2/2/2024: -127
2/9: -117
2/16: -103
2/23: -112
3/1: -121
3/8: -125
3/15: -109
3/22: -112
3/28: -115
4/5: -93
4/12: -87
4/19: -77
4/26: -70
5/3: -85
5/10: -87
5/17: -94
5/24: -99
5/31: -83
6/7: -92
6/14: -113
6/21: -103
6/28: -96
7/5: -101
7/12: -108
7/19: -103
7/26: -104
8/2: -143
8/9: -131
8/16: -138
8/23: -141
8/30: -121
9/6: -125
9/13: -117
9/20: -80
9/27: -80
10/4: -75
10/11: -58
10/18: -54
10/25: -38
11/1: -18
11/8: -23
11/15: -10
11/22: -12
11/29: -40
12/6: -23
12/13: +18
12/20: +29
12/27: +38
1/3: +38
1/10: +54
1/17: +41
Oil/Gas
WTI crude oil continued to ride higher, finishing out the week at $77.37, up from $75.70 the prior Friday, the fourth straight week of rising price action. Wednesday's CPI reading from December produced most of the rally, hitting a high of $79.14 before backing off Thursday and Friday.
This week's jump in oil futures sent oil prices closer to summer levels that peaked above $82/barrel. How well this pric action continues to hold after Monday's inauguration of Donald J. Trump and his "drill, baby, drill" mantra is largely dependent on press attitudes and what comes off the president's desk his first week back in the Oval Office. With a heavy agenda, oil may be left to its own accord, though Trump is very likely to issue Executive Orders to reverse much of what the Biden White House destroyed of oil and capital markets the past four years.
Gasbuddy.com is reporting the national average for a gallon of unleaded regular gas at the pump up seven cents from last week, checking in at $3.12 a gallon Sunday morning.
California continues to be the national price leader, at $4.41 a gallon.
Pennsylvania prices jumped eight cents, at $3.34, with the Keystone State the price leader in the Northeast. New York saw a slightly smaller change, at $3.14. Connecticut ($3.07) was up slightly while Massachusetts ($3.01) was higher by just three cents, returning back above the $3.00 threshold. Maryland prices jacked higher by 22 cents, at $3.32.
Illinois advanced only two cents, to $3.24. Ohio (#3.11) and Indiana ($3.10) again returned back above $3.00 after just one week below.
Mississippi took over as low price leader, snatching the crown from Oklahoma with a price of $2.65, while the Sooner State came in at $2.67. Following are Texas ($2.69), Arkansas ($2.70), and Louisiana ($2.71). Those are followed by Alabama ($2.77), Tennessee ($2.78), Kansas ($2.80), and South Carolina ($2.81). Florida's was up seven cents, at $3.18, Georgia crept closer to $3, showing $2.95 this weekend.
Sub-$3.00 gas can now be found in only 28 U.S. states. The Northeast and West coast remain largely over-$3.00 holdouts.
Arizona ($3.11) was up eight cents from a week ago. Oregon showed prices higher, at $3.49, Nevada at $3.62, and Washington at $3.90, leaving only California above $4.00. Utah ($2.97) and Idaho ($3.01) were both lower for the week.
Bitcoin
This week: $105,074.80
Last week: $94,640.44
2 weeks ago: $97,453.01
6 months ago: $66,693.20
One year ago: $41,705.26
Five years ago: $9,895.13
Bitcoin moved higher again this week, promoted by some reporting that the incoming Trump administration plans on removing many of the regulations surrounding crypto ownership. With changes afoot at the SEC and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the idea is that with an administration's full embrace of crypto's potential, the United States will become the de facto leader of crypto adoption. In many ways, it already is, though that doesn't prevent the usual suspects from pushing their agenda to extremes, including the concept of the U.S. establishing a "bitcoin reserve". While the idea of the U.S. government becoming huge hodlers of vaporware currency appeals to the baser instincts of the crypto future crowd, it remains to be seen what the U.S. government plans on doing with its money in the face of exploding national debt and a debased currency. Establishing a new currency standard isn't something the world would take lightly. Basing one on currency that is ethereal, but also highly traceable, as bitcoin and most other cryptos are, seems to be quite the canard, an unworkable direction that leads, ultimately to anathema of the crypto universe, CBDCs. Crypto adherents had better not hope to hard, because they might get exactly what they want, with unexpected attachments and unwieldy consequences.
Precious Metals
Gold:Silver Ratio: 88.24; last week: 86.82
Per COMEX continuous contracts:
Gold price 12/20: $2,640.50
Gold price 12/27: $2,636.50
Gold price 1/5: $2,652.70
Gold price 1/12: $2,717.40
Gold price 1/19: $2,740.00
Silver price 12/20: $30.08
Silver price 12/27: $29.98
Silver price 1/5: $30.10
Silver price 1/12: $31.30
Silver price 1/19: $31.05
Gold continued it's upside momentum, while silver made impressive gains Wednesday, only to give the bulk of them back, and then some, Thursday and Friday.
Judging by activity on eBay, a silver mania is developing, with small fry (average Joes and Janes) evidencing a propensity to throw caution to the wind as they continue stacking and saving for the future and against the corrupt fiat regime they clearly see faltering on multiple fronts, not the least of which are inflation (money creation, currency debasement) and the threat from BRICS in the formation of a global financial duopoly with the U.S. dollar - and by extension, the euro, yen, and pound - taking a beating.
Even though stocks had a very good week and are tracking towards a positive bent to the important month of January, precious metals have not backed down much from autumn 2024's highs. Gold is clearly fetching over $2,800 on one-ounce pieces and much higher on a per-ounce basis on fractional coins and bars. Silver, at least near term, has avoided further price deterioration and shortages continue to mount. COMEX prices are one thing. Buying coins and bars at $10 or more over spot indicates a large and growing cohort seeking relief and better accounting for what determines wealth and value.
Here are the most recent prices for common one ounce gold and silver items sold on eBay (numismatics excluded, free shipping):
| Item/Price | Low | High | Average | Median |
| 1 oz silver coin: | 34.99 | 49.99 | 43.24 | 42.44 |
| 1 oz silver bar: | 36.96 | 47.95 | 41.37 | 40.58 |
| 1 oz gold coin: | 2,818.10 | 2,912.22 | 2,863.58 | 2,869.90 |
| 1 oz gold bar: | 2,812.38 | 2,888.37 | 2,835.72 | 2,824.61 |
The Single Ounce Silver Market Price Benchmark (SOSMPB) rose moderately, to $41.91, an increase of 64 cents from the January 12 price of $41.27 per troy ounce.
WEEKEND WRAP
One more day. Will the nightmare of the last four years vanish in an instant or will there be continued pushback from the open borders, DEI non-conformists as there was in Trump's first term?
Hope against hope that the former is the case, but, knowing the depth of depravity that dwells within the deep state, the latter seems more likely.
At the Close, Friday, January 10, 2025:
Dow: 43,487.83, +334.70 (+0.78%)
NASDAQ: 19,630.20, +291.91 (+1.51%)
S&P 500: 5,996.66, +59.32 (+1.00%)
NYSE Composite: 19,607.37, +58.74 (+0.30%)
For the Week:
Dow: +1549.38 (+3.69%)
NASDAQ: +468.57 (+2.45%)
S&P 500: +169.62 (+2.91%)
NYSE Composite: +644.36 (+3.40%)
Dow Transports: +507.84 (+3.19%)
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